As the first-round series in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs shift to the home ice of the underdogs, some teams have been pushed to the brink of elimination.
Game 3 will be an important one. In Stanley Cup playoff history, teams with a 2-0 series lead have gone on to win the series 86% of the time; teams that have taken a 3-0 series lead have gone on to win 98% of the time.
Strangely, the Capitals have not done well historically after going up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series. They are the NHL’s only team with a losing record (4-6) in that situation.
Capitals goalie Logan Thompson didn’t play during the Vegas Golden Knights‘ Stanley Cup run in 2023, and he is more than making up for it with his play in this series. In Game 2, Thompson stopped all 14 third-period shots from the Canadiens to preserve the Caps’ lead. Overall, he has a .951 save percentage and 1.47 goals-against average for the series.
Connor McDavid or Connor McMichael? The Caps’ winger scored two goals in a Game 2 win, his first career multigoal game. McDavid has more multigoal games in his career but has not had one yet this postseason.
The Canadiens have had three different goal scorers in the series, including first-line forwards Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, as well as veteran Christian Dvorak. For Dvorak, his goal in Game 2 was the third of his career.
Though Thompson has been a big story for the Caps, Sam Montembeault has been equally vital to the Canadiens. He has made some impressive saves en route to a .921 save percentage and 2.49 goals-against average (rates that a number of other teams would love to see from their goaltenders).
The Hurricanes continued an impressive streak by winning Game 2 on Tuesday, as they’ve gone up 2-0 in each of their past five first-round series.
Frederik Andersen made 25 saves in Game 2, earning his 13th playoff win with Carolina, which is one shy of tying Arturs Irbe for the second-most playoff wins in Hurricanes/Whalers franchise history.
News flash: Seth Jarvis is good. His goal in Game 2 was his 14th career playoff goal, which ties Sebastian Aho for the most postseason goals scored by a player age 23 or younger in franchise history.
New Jersey is hoping for good news on injured players, as Luke Hughes and Brenden Dillon sat out Tuesday’s game. Hughes averaged the second-most ice time per game on the team in the regular season (21:09), behind only Brett Pesce (21:19).
Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom has been solid in two defeats, with 66 saves on 71 shots (.930 save percentage).
With the caveat that the Oilers can never be counted out, the Kings now have history on their side as they look to escape the first round: the franchise has a 7-1 series record all time when leading 2-0 in a best-of-seven series.
The Kings’ power play continues to drive their success. Including the end of the regular season, they have scored a power-play goal in seven straight games, and are 5-for-10 in this series. That has helped them produce six goals in each of the first two games, a feat that has not been done since the 2014 San Jose Sharks (who did it against the Kings).
In Game 2, Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar became the first duo of Kings players to have four or more points in the same playoff game since Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey in 1992 (coincidentally, also against the Oilers).
After an uneven start to the 2023 playoffs, Stuart Skinner was benched, which seemed to improve his play thereafter. The Oilers are hoping something similar happens here; Skinner gave up five goals on 28 shots in Game 2 before being pulled. He is the third goalie in Oilers playoff history to give up five goals in consecutive playoff games, joining Grant Fuhr (1984, 1985) and Andy Moog (1981, 1983); the Oilers won the Stanley Cup in 1984 and ’85.
The Stars have shown up for Edmonton — Connor McDavid has four points, and Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl have three apiece — but the depth scoring has not been there. Could Kris Knoblauch jumble his lines a bit heading into Game 3?
Arda’s three stars from Thursday night
When the Blues needed him, he delivered: a hat trick and an assist in a 7-2 win as St. Louis avoids going down 3-0 vs. Winnipeg.
With his two power-play goals in the win over the Golden Knights, Kaprizov climbed an impressive list; according to ESPN Research, only Mario Lemieux and John Druce have more power-play goals in their first 22 playoff games.
With his second straight game-winning goal, Schmidt became the first Panthers defenseman with two winning goals in one postseason.
Defenseman Nate Schmidt scored a goal for the second straight game and Sergei Bobrovsky stopped all 19 shots the Lightning took on goal as the defending Cup champs took another on the road to start their playoff journey. But the biggest story in the aftermath was Brandon Hagel‘s hit on Aleksander Barkov that resulted in a five-minute major penalty — and knocked Barkov out of the game. Full recap.
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Nate Schmidt’s slapshot gives Panthers the early lead
Nate Schmidt scores on a slapshot to give the Panthers a 1-0 lead vs. the Lightning.
For the second straight game, the two teams needed extra time to settle matters. And for the second straight game, the Maple Leafs emerge victorious, sending the Senators to the brink of elimination. Claude Giroux and Matthew Knies traded power-play goals in the second, followed by Auston Matthews and Brady Tkachuk in the third. Leafs defenseman Simon Benoit scored the game winner on a seeing-eye shot from distance 1:19 into OT. Recap.
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Simon Benoit’s OT winner gives Leafs 3-0 series lead
Simon Benoit nets the overtime winner for the Maple Leafs to give them a 3-0 series lead over the Senators.
Well, this is an interesting one. In a postseason thus far driven by the favorites taking series leads, the Wild have outpaced the heavily favored Golden Knights through three games of this series. Kirill Kaprizov added a pair of goals in this one, giving him four this postseason. The Wild have scored five goals in two straight games, and 12 overall for the series. Recap.
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Marcus Foligno’s empty-netter completes Game 3 win for Wild
Marcus Foligno scores with under two minutes left to give the Wild a 5-2 win over the Golden Knights.
St. Louis will not go quietly into the night. The Blues netted three goals in the first period — including the first two of Pavel Buchnevich‘s hat trick — and didn’t look back. Buchnevich also tallied an assist, while Cam Fowler (one goal, four assists) and Robert Thomas (four assists) joined him in filling up the box score. Recap.
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Pavel Buchnevich completes his hat trick for Blues
Pavel Buchnevich scores his third goal of the game for a hat trick to put the Blues up 4-1 over the Jets.
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. — Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes champion Sovereignty rallied after losing position heading into the final turn to win the $500,000 Jim Dandy by a length at Saratoga on Saturday.
Ridden by Junior Alvarado, Sovereignty ran nine furlongs in 1:49.52 and paid $3 to win as the 1-2 favorite against four rivals, the smallest field of his career.
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said Sovereignty would be pointed toward the $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 23 at the upstate New York track.
Approaching the turn, there were a few tense moments as it appeared Sovereignty was retreating when losing position to the advancing Baeza and deep closers Sandman and Hill Road, leaving Sovereignty in last for a few strides.
Alvarado said he never had a doubt that Sovereignty would come up with his expected run.
“It was everybody else moving and at that time I was just like, ‘Alright let me now kind of start picking it up,'” Alvarado said. “I had 100% confidence. I knew what I had underneath me.”
Baeza, third to Sovereignty in both the Derby and Belmont, finished second. Hill Road was another 9¼ lengths back in third. Mo Plex was fourth and Sandman fifth.
INDIANAPOLIS — Chase Briscoe became the first driver to win poles at NASCAR’s first three crown jewel races in one season Saturday, taking the Brickyard 400 pole with a fast lap of 183.165 mph.
His late run bumped Bubba Wallace out of the top starting spot.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has won nine career poles, five coming this season including those at the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600 and now the only race held in Briscoe’s home state. He’ll have a chance to complete a crown jewel sweep at the Southern 500 in late August.
Briscoe has the most pole wins this season, his latest coming on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s 2.5-mile oval. It also came on the same weekend his sister was married in Indiana. Briscoe has never won the Brickyard.
Wallace starts next to Briscoe on the front row after posting a lap of 183.117 mph. Those two also led a pack of five Toyotas to the front of the field — marking the first time the engine manufacturer has swept the top five spots.
Qualifying was held after a brief, rescheduled practice session. Friday’s practice was rained out.
Briscoe’s teammate, Ty Gibbs, has the early edge in the championship round of NASCAR’s first In-Season Challenge. He qualified fifth at 182.445. Ty Dillon starts 26th. The winner will be crowned champion and walk away with $1 million.
Last week’s race winner Denny Hamlin faces a major hurdle in winning his first Brickyard title. He crashed hard during qualifying and will start from the back of the field, 39th, as he tries to become the fifth driver to complete a career sweep of the Cup’s crown jewel races. The 44-year-old Hamlin signed a two-year contract extension with JGR on Friday.
There’s plenty of history in the rivalry between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s about 116 miles from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park. The two teams been competing for the NL East since 1969. Star players from Tug McGraw to Jerry Koosman to Lenny Dykstra to Pedro Martinez to Zack Wheeler have played for both franchises. Mets fans loathe the Phanatic, and Phillies fans laugh derisively at Mr. Met.
Despite this longevity, the two teams have rarely battled for a division title in the same season. The only years they finished No. 1 and 2 or were battling for a division lead late in the season:
1986: Mets finished 21.5 games ahead
2001: Both finished within six games of the Braves
2006: Mets finished 12 games ahead
2007: Phillies finished one game ahead
2008: Phillies finished three games ahead
2024: Phillies finished six games ahead of Mets and Braves
So it’s a rare treat to see the Mets and Phillies battling for the NL East lead in as New York faces the San Francisco Giants on “Sunday Night Baseball” this week. This season has also been a bit of bumpy ride for both teams, so there is pressure on both front offices to make trade deadline additions in hopes of winning the World Series that has eluded both franchises in recent years despite high payrolls and star-laden rosters. Let’s dig into what both teams need to do before Thursday.
The perfect trade deadline for the Mets
1. Bullpen help
The Mets already acquired hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto from the Orioles, but David Stearns will likely look for another reliever, given that the Mets’ bullpen has struggled since the beginning of June with a 5.02 ERA. In my grade of the trade, I pointed out the importance for the Mets to add left-handed relief. Think of potential playoff opponents and all the key left-handed batters: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the Phillies; Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy on the Dodgers; Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong on the Cubs.
Soto has held lefties to a .138 average this season, and it does help that the Mets have two lefty starters in David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They also just activated Brooks Raley after he had been out since early 2024. If he is back to his 2022-23 form, when he had a 2.74 ERA and held lefties to a .209 average, maybe the Mets will feel good enough about their southpaw relief.
They could still use another dependable righty reliever. Mets starters were hot early on, but they weren’t going deep into games, and outside of Peterson, the lack of longer outings is a big reason the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed. Carlos Mendoza has overworked his setup guys, including Huascar Brazoban and Reed Garrett. Brazoban has never been much of a strike thrower anyway, and Garrett similarly faded in the second half last season. Adding a high-leverage righty to set up Edwin Diaz makes sense. Candidates there include David Bednar of the Pirates, Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals, Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran of the Twins, or maybe a longer shot such as Emmanuel Clase or Cade Smith of the Guardians.
Mark Vientos was a huge key to last season’s playoff appearance and trip to the NLCS, hitting .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs after beginning the season in Triple-A. He hasn’t been able to replicate that performance, though, hitting .224/.279/.354. That has led to a revolving door at third base, with Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio starting games there in July. Overall, Mets third basemen ranked 24th in the majors in OPS entering Friday.
Lack of production at third is one reason the Mets’ offense has been mediocre rather than very good — they’re averaging 4.38 runs per game, just below the NL average of 4.43. They could use another premium bat, given the lack of production they’ve received from center field and catcher (not to mention Francisco Lindor‘s slump since the middle of June). Maybe Francisco Alvarez‘s short stint back in Triple-A will get his bat going now that he’s back in the majors, but going after Suarez to hit behind Juan Soto and Pete Alonso would lengthen the lineup.
Tyrone Taylor is a plus defender in center and has made several incredible catches, but he’s hitting .209/.264/.306 for a lowly OPS+ of 65. Old friend Bader is having a nice season with the Twins, hitting .251/.330/.435. Maybe that’s a little over his head, given that he had a .657 OPS with the Mets last season, but he would still be an offensive upgrade over Taylor without losing anything on defense — and he wouldn’t cost a top-tier prospect. The Mets could still mix in Jeff McNeil against the really tough righties, but adding Suarez and Bader would give this lineup more of a championship feel.
The perfect deadline for the Phillies
1. Acquire Jhoan Duran
Like the Mets, the Phillies already made a move here, signing free agent David Robertson, who had a 3.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 72 innings last season with the Rangers. On paper, he should help, but he’s also 40 and will need a few games in the minors to get ready. Even with Robertson, the Phillies could use some more help here. They’ll eventually get Jose Alvarado back from his 60-game PED suspension, but Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason. At least the Mets have an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. Jordan Romano leads the Phillies with eight saves and has a 6.69 ERA. Matt Strahm is solid, but more useful as a lefty setup guy than a closer (think of all those left-handed batters we listed for the Mets, then sub out Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo for Harper and Schwarber).
And the Phillies’ bullpen has consistently come up short in big games. Think back to last year’s NLDS, when Jeff Hoffman lost twice to the Mets. Or 2023, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. Or the 2022 World Series, when Yordan Alvarez hit the huge home run off Alvarado in the clinching Game 6.
So, yes, a shutdown closer is a must. Maybe that’s Bednar, maybe Clase if he’s available (although he struggled in last year’s postseason), maybe Helsley. But the guy Dave Dombrowski should go all-in to get: Duran. The window for the Phillies is slowly closing as the core players get older. Duran is under control through 2027, so he’s a fit for now and the immediate future. The trade cost might be painful, but with his 100 mph fastball and splitter, he has the elite stuff you need in October.
The Phillies have received below-average production from both left field (mostly Max Kepler) and center field (Brandon Marsh/Johan Rojas platoon). The center-field market is pretty thin except for Bader or maybe a gamble on Luis Robert Jr. I’d pass on Robert, stick with the Marsh/Rojas platoon and upgrade left field with O’Hearn, who is hitting .281/.375/.452 for the Orioles. He isn’t the perfect fit since, like Kepler, he hits left-handed and struggles against lefties, but he’s a patient hitter with a much better OBP, and he’s passable in the outfield.
Here’s the bottom line: The Phillies have to admit that some of their long-term position players aren’t getting the job done — such as second baseman Bryson Stott, who has a 77 OPS+. Third baseman Alec Bohm has been better but also has a below-average OPS.
That makes Castro a nice fit. He’s not a star, but he’s an above-average hitter, a switch-hitter who plays all over the field for the Twins, having started games at five different positions. He could play second or third or start in left field against a lefty. Philadelphia could even start him in center instead of Rojas, although that would be a defensive hit. Bottom line: Castro would give the Phillies a lot more versatility — or a significant offensive upgrade over Stott if they start him every day at second.
Note as well: Stott has hit .188 in 33 career postseason games. Bohm has hit .214 with two home runs in 34 postseason games. The Phillies need a different offensive look for October.