Passan’s first-month MLB takeaways: NL dominance, torpedo bat fallout and breakout stars
One month into the Major League Baseball season, the favorites are playing as expected (for the most part), the stars are off to great starts (more or less) and the game looks as it should (except for the two minor league parks). April offers a window into the next five months, though it’s still slightly opaque — a tease for what’s ahead.
Will there be another historic Aaron Judge season? A team breaking the record for futility just one year after a single-season record for losses was established? A new standard for on-field larceny? All of that and so much more are possible, according to a wide swath of players, coaches, executives, evaluators and analysts ESPN surveyed to understand what in April was real and what was more early-season mirage.
We’ll begin with one thing that is clear enough to say definitively. And while it might not mean anything come October, for May, June, July, August and September, it’s bound to prove true.
The National League is vastly superior to the American League
This disparity was anticipated, yes, but the degree to which the Senior Circuit dwarfs the Junior Circuit in almost every way — from record to run differential to preeminence of the best teams — only reinforces the chasm between the leagues.
Currently, the NL is 224-218 with a plus-69 run differential. And that’s despite the 4-25 Colorado Rockies and their -78 run differential. The combined OPS of NL hitters is 25 points higher than that of AL hitters. They walk more and strike out less, score way more and steal copious bases comparatively and hit more home runs. In interleague games, NL pitchers have an ERA that is more than a third of a run lower than that of their AL counterparts.
There is an argument to be made that seven NL teams are better than the AL’s best team (either the New York Yankees or Detroit Tigers, who have separated themselves by the end of April), and that doesn’t even include the Cincinnati Reds, who have a five-game winning streak and the fourth-best run differential in MLB (aided by a 24-2 win against Baltimore). The NL’s magnificent seven include:
Los Angeles Dodgers: The overwhelming World Series favorites have been just all right since an 8-0 start, with injuries hammering their starting rotation and offensive struggles by third baseman Max Muncy, outfielder Michael Conforto, utility man Kiké Hernández and even shortstop Mookie Betts. And yet the Dodgers still terrify opponents because of games like Sunday, when starter Tyler Glasnow exited because of a shoulder injury and was replaced by Ben Casparius, whose fastball sat at 97 mph, topped out at 99 and complemented a slider and curveball averaging 3,000-plus RPMs of spin. The Dodgers are great because of their stars, but they’re even more dangerous because their replacements also have elite ceilings.
San Diego Padres: For a team that entered 2025 with rotation questions, the Padres have managed to post seven shutouts, the most ever for a team through the end of April. Much of it is owed to their bullpen, which owns an MLB-best 1.66 ERA and has stranded 87.8% of runners, blowing away the league average of 71%. Powered by their nasty bullpen, starters Michael King and Nick Pivetta, and Fernando Tatis Jr. going full superstar mode, the Padres have managed most of April without star center fielder Jackson Merrill and second baseman Jake Cronenworth with aplomb. Once the Padres get healthy, look out.
New York Mets: They sport the best record in MLB — and have gotten to the top of the standings despite slow starts from Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo, with Juan Soto still seeking his power stroke. New York’s pitching has been nothing short of brilliant, with a rotation leading MLB in ERA by nearly three-quarters of a run at 2.27. And that’s without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, two free agent signings who have spent the first month on the injured list. It doesn’t hurt that Pete Alonso was the best hitter in the league in April, and Francisco Lindor is doing Francisco Lindor things, too. There might not be a more electric place to watch a ballgame these days than Citi Field, where the Mets are 13-1 this season.
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have been baseball’s best offense by a significant margin so far and achieved the exceedingly rare 40/40 month: 42 home runs and 44 stolen bases in April. Chicago’s balance isn’t just power-speed, either; it’s up and down the lineup, from Kyle Tucker starting his walk year with a flurry to Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s breakout looking real to Carson Kelly hitting better than anyone in the sport in limited playing time. The Cubs’ pitching is problematic, though, and losing Justin Steele to reconstructive elbow surgery did them no favors. But with an offense on a 977-run pace and the easiest schedule in MLB for the remainder of the season, summer and fall in Wrigley could be a lot of fun.
San Francisco Giants: The season’s biggest surprise so far, the Giants look like the Padres Lite with excellent bullpen performances elevating steadiness across all other facets of the game. Randy Rodriguez has been a revelation in a relief corps that has also seen a bounce-back from Camilo Doval, consistent excellence from Tyler Rogers and the high-octane stuff of Hayden Birdsong playing up out of the pen. The offense has been more of a mixed bag. Willy Adames has struggled at the plate, but Jung Hoo Lee is looking like a potential star and Mike Yastrzemski had his best start in years. San Francisco’s hitters have thrived in big spots, highlighted by Wilmer Flores ranking third in the majors in RBIs thanks to a .387/.457/.677 line with runners in scoring position.
Philadelphia Phillies: Let’s start with the good. On paper, Philadelphia remains one of the toughest teams in the NL. Zack Wheeler is the most consistent ace in baseball, Jesus Luzardo is pitching like the best version of himself, and coupled with Cristopher Sanchez‘s continued ascent, the starting pitchers all combine to make the Phillies a dangerous squad come October. Can they get there, though? The bullpen is a real issue, with the second-worst ERA in baseball (5.25) and only Jose Alvarado exceeding expectations. The bottom third of the Phillies’ lineup also needs to produce more, and the lack of home runs (24, which ranks 23rd in MLB) will catch up to their offense if it persists.
Arizona Diamondbacks: At some point, the Diamondbacks’ pitching is bound to right itself. A rotation of Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt should not have the 24th-ranked starter ERA in MLB. Thankfully for the Snakes, the offense has been elite. Corbin Carroll has turned in an MVP-caliber April, Pavin Smith might be the best platoon player in MLB, Josh Naylor is bordering elite with his swing decisions, and Eugenio Suarez leads the big leagues in home runs. With Ketel Marte back soon and Jordan Lawlar destroying Triple-A, the Diamondbacks’ offensive excellence could get even better. And as long as the pitching stabilizes, Arizona will be a team nobody wants to face now or in October.
The stolen base is back and better than ever, but offense is still meh
When MLB introduced new rules in 2023, the implementation of larger bases and limiting of pickoffs weren’t talked about as much as adding the pitch clock and banning the shift. But both have had a demonstrable effect on the game. Perhaps not quite as much as the pitch clock — nine-inning games are averaging 2 hours, 37 minutes, almost dead even with last year’s 2:36 — but the changes that have brought back the stolen base have been far more significant than those the league hoped would help juice batting average.
Last year, MLB players stole 3,617 bases, the highest number in more than a century. This April’s stolen-base total already exceeds last year’s at this time (714 to 672), and runners aren’t going to stop stealing until catchers show they can more consistently throw them out.
With a success rate of 79.5% on steals of second — and 74.8% on attempts to swipe third — runners are emboldened. Anything in excess of 75% encourages teams to keep running, and with seven teams already pilfering more than 30 bases, they are gladly obliging, turning singles and walks into “doubles” regularly.
And it’s not only the fastest players in baseball who are thriving. Everyone is running. Bryce Harper, nobody’s idea of a stolen-base machine, has six in 29 games after swiping seven last season in 145 games. Manny Machado hasn’t stolen more than a dozen bases since 2018; he’s already halfway there.
On the other hand, an offensive regression last year alarmed executives who were hopeful the runs-per-game jump in 2023 meant offense would continue to blossom under baseball’s new rules. It has not. The numbers from the past four seasons through the end of April:
Walks are up three-tenths of a percentage point and strikeouts are down by the same amount. Runs per game are flat (4.38 last year, 4.34 this year). The ball is being put in play at the highest April rate since 2017 … but defenses are turning more of them into outs than the previous two years of new-rule ball.
The torpedo bat was more moment than game changer
Oh, the halcyon days of opening weekend, when Yankees hitters unleashed the torpedo bat and looked as if they were about to revolutionize baseball.
With this novel-looking piece of equipment that forsook the standard shape of a bat and aimed to place more wood in the part of the bat that strikes balls most frequently, the hitters who embraced the torpedo looked like world beaters. The numbers from that opening series against Milwaukee were undeniably good.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: .417/.500/1.167, 3 HRs, 6 RBIs in 14 PA
Austin Wells: .200/.333/.800, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs in 12 PA
Anthony Volpe: .167/.286/.667, 2 HRs, 4 RBIs in 14 PA
Cody Bellinger: .400/.357/.700, 1 HR, 6 RBIs in 14 PA
Since then, those players’ numbers have been:
Chisholm: .151/.279/.312, 4 HRs, 11 RBIs in 111 PA
Wells: .212/.258/.425, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs in 89 PA
Volpe: .242/.327/.434, 3 HRs, 15 RBIs in 113 PA
Bellinger: .184/.273/.322, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs in 99 PA
The torpedo bat, it turns out, doesn’t erase weaknesses of hitters. It’s also not fool’s gold. Cal Raleigh is using it with his left-handed swing, but not his right — and seven of his 10 homers have come from the left side, where he has an OPS nearly 300 points better than the right. Steven Kwan, who might as well be the anti-Raleigh, is also swinging a torpedo and is batting .333, seventh best in the big leagues.
Because of that opening-weekend blitz, though, the torpedoes will continue to be associated with the Yankees. And it’s worth noting that Judge has continued to swing a traditional bat and not only looks like the best hitter on the planet but by a significant margin. Judge leads MLB in each of the triple-slash categories (.412/.507/.728), ranks second in RBIs (29), second in runs (28) and third in home runs (nine). He is striking out in a career-low 20.6% of his plate appearances and continues to hit the ball harder and more consistently than anyone.
1:35
Why Jeff Passan considers Aaron Judge a little underappreciated
Jeff Passan breaks down Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge’s impressive play to Pat McAfee.
The Rockies are a real threat to the 2024 White Sox as the worst team ever
Where to begin? The Rockies are 4-25. They’re in the midst of their third six-plus-game losing streak. They have not won back-to-back games. They are dreadful on the road (1-14). They are abysmal at night (1-13). They cannot touch left-handed starters (0-9). They are striking out in 28.1% of their plate appearances, which would be a big league record. Their starters’ ERA is 6.73, which would be the worst mark in MLB history. They are 15½ games behind the Dodgers after one month.
The Rockies are not bad — they are tragic. And what’s worst of all is it’s not for lack of trying by their owner, Dick Monfort, who has typically carried a middle-of-the-pack payroll. They are simply a baseball team that can neither score nor prevent runs, with an offense tied for last and a pitching staff that ranks 29th out of 30 teams.
The record of 120 losses held for more than 60 years before the White Sox went 41-121 last year. Their minus-78 run differential through 29 games was exactly the same as Colorado’s, but even the White Sox were 6-23.
Considering the Rockies still have to play 46 games against the Dodgers, Giants, Padres and Diamondbacks, Colorado’s road is far more treacherous than the White Sox’s through the AL Central. So watch out, White Sox. Your reign of futility might be only as a one-year placeholder for the burgeoning champions of misery.
1:14
Jeff Passan: The Rockies spend money, they just don’t spend it well
Jeff Passan tells “The Pat McAfee Show” that the Rockies are on pace to be the worst team in MLB history, surpassing the Chicago White Sox.
The pitching woes of the Orioles and Braves have dug mighty holes
All winter, Orioles fans waited in vain for the move to replace former ace Burnes in Baltimore’s rotation. And after projected Opening Day starter Grayson Rodriguez went down because of a shoulder injury and Zach Eflin hit the injured list because of a lat strain, it has become clearer than ever that the O’s lack the sort of starting pitching to stay competitive in the AL East. Kyle Gibson, their latest effort at replacing Rodriguez and Eflin, gave up four home runs to the Yankees in the first inning of his first start Tuesday. Now 11-18, the Orioles have given up the most runs in the AL and haven’t hit their way out of the pitching deficits they continue to face.
The money Baltimore did spend this winter also has not worked out well. Tyler O’Neill (three years, $49.5 million) has been a league-average player. Gary Sanchez (one year, $8.5 million) has been awful and is hurt. Charlie Morton (one year, $15 million) has the highest ERA in the AL. Andrew Kittredge (one year, $10 million) still hasn’t thrown a pitch. Only Tomoyuki Sugano (one year, $13 million) has been passable, and his lack of strikeouts does not portend good things, though he managed to find success despite it in Japan.
Like the Orioles, Atlanta is suffering from a paucity of pitching depth. The Braves have cycled through an MLB-high 22 pitchers this season, and the loss of Reynaldo Lopez to shoulder surgery, Spencer Strider to a hamstring injury and Joe Jimenez to knee surgery have taken a weakness and made it worse. Things would be better if the Braves were hitting, but outside of Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and Matt Olson — who’s slugging under .400 — the juggernaut lineup of two years ago remains AWOL.
There is hope for Atlanta in the form of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s upcoming return from an ACL tear and Strider’s hamstring healing. And they’re starting to win. Since an 0-7 start, the Braves are 14-8; they’re currently 6½ games behind the Mets and only two shy of the Phillies. It’s still early, but the Braves could soon look more like the team that won the World Series three years ago.
Five pitchers who are 2025’s breakout aces
We’ve focused on the themes and teams that have shaped the first month so far. Now, we’ll turn our attention to the players who have caught our eye, for better … or worse.
Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros: The quietest ace in baseball began his run of dominance early last season but is only now beginning to receive the recognition he warrants. With a fastball up to 99 mph, a vicious sinker, a swing-and-miss changeup and three more pitches, he has the arsenal to complement his moxie. He is the next great Astros pitcher.
Max Meyer, RHP, Miami Marlins: Meyer’s six-inning, 14-strikeout gem against Cincinnati illustrated what the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft can be. His slider is one of the best in MLB and he throws it 50% of the time. Combine it with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and plays at the top of the zone and he’s primed to anchor the Marlins’ rotation with Eury Perez for years to come.
Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Baz sat out nearly two years after Tommy John surgery in 2022, and though he looked excellent in his return last year, there was even more in the tank. Between his 97 mph fastball and hard curveball, he has one of the best two-pitch combinations in baseball. With Shane McClanahan out, the Rays needed one of their young arms to step up, and Baz has done just that.
Matthew Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Continuing the theme of post-hype prospects is the 25-year-old Liberatore, who came into camp as an underdog to win a rotation spot after spending most of last year in the bullpen. He has rewarded the Cardinals with the lowest walk rate in baseball (two in 31 innings) and complemented it with only one home run allowed. With a six-pitch mix, Liberatore has cemented himself as a fixture for a Cardinals team in need of a reimagination.
Nick Pivetta, RHP, San Diego Padres: The 32-year-old Pivetta has spent upward of a decade tantalizing evaluators with his stuff and always found himself done in by the home run ball. In 35⅓ innings this season, he has given up two homers, and three of his six outings ended after seven shutout innings. The best part of Pivetta’s game: He’s getting tremendous amounts of in-zone swing-and-miss, a testament to the quality of his stuff.
Five hitters who are 2025’s breakout bats
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: The 24-year-old Carroll excels at almost everything he tries, which made last year’s first-half swoon so uncharacteristic. His aggressiveness this season — Carroll’s out-of-zone and swing-and-miss percentages have rocketed up — belies an intelligent approach that’s happy to trade whiff for production. Thanks to his speed, Carroll always will be useful. But the Diamondbacks want more than that. And if he maintains anything close to his early-season line (.298/.365/.645), they’ll have a top-10 player in the game.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs: The question with Crow-Armstrong was always about ceiling vs. floor. Because his glove is so good, he could carve out a plenty fine big league career as a defense-first center fielder. But Crow-Armstrong wanted to be a great player, not simply a top-flight defender. His improvements at the plate are clear not only because of the numbers but how he’s getting them. Namely, he’s making good contact on good pitches, going from an in-zone whiff percentage of 24.6% last year to this year’s 13.5%.
James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals: If Wood ever figures out how to consistently elevate the ball, he will be one of the best hitters in baseball. As is, even with an average launch angle of 3.2 degrees — the 11th lowest of 219 qualified hitters — he has managed to whack nine home runs. Five have gone to the opposite field. At 6-foot-7, Wood packs uncommon power, particularly when he goes the other way. He’s starting to get to it, an alarming prospect for pitchers who know that pounding the outside corner is simply an invitation for Wood to do what he does better than just about anyone.
Oneil Cruz, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates: It’s finally looking like the year that one of the most physically talented players in baseball evolves into one of the best. Since he debuted in 2021, the 6-foot-7 Cruz has hit the ball as hard as anyone not named Judge. This season, he is striking out less, walking significantly more, lashing home runs and stealing bases. And while his center-field defense leaves plenty to be desired, it’s a reasonable price to pay for such exceptional offensive production.
Jung Hoo Lee, CF, San Francisco Giants: Lee doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, limiting his ultimate ceiling, so he’ll have to settle for simply being a damn good baseball player. He rarely strikes out. He plays a solid center field. He’s a natural on the basepaths. And at 26, in his first full season after a shoulder injury sustained crashing into an outfield wall last May ended his season, Lee can fulfill his destiny as the best South Korea-born player in MLB since Shin-Soo Choo.
Five players whose slow starts warrant panic
Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians: His strikeouts are down, his walks way up and his home runs allowed alarming. Bibee, signed to a five-year, $48 million contract extension in spring training, added a new cutter this winter — and it’s not working. Neither, at this point, is his fastball, a slower slider and his changeup. In five starts, Bibee has generated only 39 swings and misses. For someone expected to spearhead Cleveland’s rotation, he has a lot of work to do.
Raisel Iglesias, closer, Atlanta Braves: In 11 innings, Iglesias has given up more home runs (five) than he did in 69⅓ innings last year (four). He weathered a precipitous dip in strikeout rate last season, but his slider — always a strength — is catching too much of the strike zone and being ambushed.
Marcus Semien, 2B, Texas Rangers: Semien is a notoriously slow starter, but the lack of power and bat speed is disconcerting even for him. On top of that, he has yet to steal a base in 29 games, and though nobody would ever mistake him for Rickey Henderson, it was always the little things that made Semien such a beloved player. At 34, climbing out of an early-season hole will be that much trickier.
Anthony Santander, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Spending the first month as a $92.5 million free agent below the Mendoza Line is tough. Doing so with a barrel rate that has cratered and only three home runs this year after hitting 44 is doubly so. Santander is not elevating the ball nearly as well as he did in 2024 — a problem Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had last year before his second-half resurgence. If the Blue Jays have any hope of contending in the AL East, they’ll need Santander to do the same.
Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox: The White Sox held onto Robert this winter figuring his value had reached its nadir and that they could rebuild it and move him at the trade deadline. Not only has he been a demonstrably worse hitter, his center-field defense also has plateaued. This is the ultimate change-of-scenery candidate, though with a club option for $20 million in 2026 and 2027, teams could treat Robert as more of a rental than long-term solution. With a turnaround, he could well earn it.
Jack Eichel has signed an eight-year contract extension with the Vegas Golden Knights that carries a $13.5 million average annual value, the team announced Wednesday.
The agreement came just hours before the Golden Knights open their season against the Los Angeles Kings in Las Vegas. The sides intensified talks as training camp opened, with both focused on getting a long-term deal secured ahead of the season.
The extension begins in the 2026-27 season, and Eichel will be 38 when it ends. He will be the third-highest player in terms of AAV in the league, following Kirill Kaprizov ($17 million) and Leon Draisaitl ($14 million) going forward.
Eichel, 28, was entering the final year of an eight-year contract that carried a $10 million cap hit, a deal he originally signed with the Buffalo Sabres, who drafted him.
Buffalo traded Eichel to the Golden Knights in 2021.
The deal stemmed from his desire to get an artificial disk replacement (ADR) to correct a neck injury, a procedure that never had been done on an NHL player and therefore was considered a risk. Eichel’s agent, Pat Brisson, helped facilitate the trade.
The Golden Knights allowed Eichel to get the surgery, which was such a success that several other NHL players have had it.
The U.S.-born center helped Vegas win its first Stanley Cup in 2023, scoring 26 points in 22 games during the playoff run.
“On or about four years ago, Jack was getting the first ADR surgery for an NHL active player,” Brisson told ESPN on Wednesday. “He is a pioneer. Vegas stepped to the plate and helped the process occur. They’ve since won the Cup. It’s a great place for him, and he’s really happy with the decision.”
Eichel is one of the six players already named to Team USA for the 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics.
The Golden Knights are expected to be Stanley Cup contenders, especially after adding winger Mitch Marner this summer. Eichel and Marner are expected to play together on Vegas’ top line in its opener against the Kings.
The agreement takes another big name off the list of what could have been a star-studded free agent class next summer. Connor McDavid re-signed for a two-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers earlier in the week, and Kaprizov inked an eight-year deal with the Minnesota Wild ahead of the season.
The 2025 MLB playoffs are here — and for some teams, October is going to last a lot longer than it is for some others.
We start with the wild-card round, where the Cincinnati Reds became the first team eliminated from postseason contention — on the very first day of October, no less — with a two-game series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The next day, the Cleveland Guardians lost their series to the Detroit Tigers, the San Diego Padres fell to the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox were knocked out by the New York Yankees in a trio of Game 3s.
In the division series, the first team to go: those same Yankees, who were defeated by their American League East rival Toronto Blue Jays in four games.
What’s next for the teams and towns that won’t be celebrating a World Series parade this fall? As each contender is eliminated, ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield will list that club’s key free agents and biggest offseason questions and make their predictions for the long, cold winter ahead.
Teams eliminated in division series
Eliminated by: Blue Jays
Key free agents: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, CF Trent Grisham, RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Devin Williams, OF/1B Cody Bellinger ($25 million player option)
Biggest offseason priority: With Bellinger almost certain to opt out after an under-the-radar 29-homer, 5-WAR season, and Grisham coming off a shocking 34-homer season, the Yankees will have not only two big hitters to replace but a hole in center field. Jasson Dominguez is not the answer there given his poor defensive metrics in left field, so there might be pressure to re-sign either Bellinger or Grisham, with Bellinger the more desirable player given that Grisham had hit under .200 in the three previous seasons. Bellinger’s ability to play first base is a big plus, although Ben Rice will likely take over there on a full-time basis. Outside of Kyle Tucker, the rest of the outfield free agent class is pretty thin, however, so the Yankees will have competition for Bellinger’s services.
The other option is to hand center field to Spencer Jones, the 6-foot-7 slugger who hit 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A. Although he also struck out 179 times in 116 games, he leaves a lot of questions as to how the bat will translate to the majors. Despite his size, he’s a good athlete (he also swiped 29 bases) with the instincts to remain in center field.
The Yankees have finished seventh in the AL in runs allowed three seasons in a row. How can they improve that figure in 2026? Well, they played all of 2025 without ace Gerrit Cole after his spring training Tommy John surgery, so getting him back will help. Luis Gil, coming off his Rookie of the Year season, didn’t make his first start until August. Cam Schlittler started the year in Double-A and ended it with a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts in the majors, living off 98 mph heat. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will be back after winning 37 games, and while Clarke Schmidt had TJ surgery, Will Warren adds even more depth. The Yankees might project as the best rotation in the AL.
The bullpen obviously didn’t have its best season, but the reinforcements Brian Cashman made at the trade deadline — David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Jake Bird — will help the depth in 2026. Still, you could see a move here, maybe re-signing Weaver, who has been a durable, valuable arm the past two years.
Offseason prediction: With most of the roster set, it shapes up as one of the least active Yankees offseasons in years. While last year the prediction was re-signing Juan Soto (a swing and a miss), let’s go with re-signing Bellinger while working Jones into the lineup. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Hicks (yes, they were still paying him) coming off the books, that’s $28 million in savings. Goldschmidt made $12.5 million in 2025. DJ LeMahieu has just one year left on his bad contract. The pitching is in good shape. Jose Caballero gives them an excellent utility player who can play anywhere. Yes, it was another bitter ending for Yankees fans, and 2009 looks like a very long time ago, but the Yankees will enter 2026 among the clear favorites in the AL, especially if Cole can return to where he was before the injury. — Schoenfield
Teams eliminated in wild-card series
Eliminated by: Dodgers
Key free agents: RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Emilio Pagan
Biggest offseason priority: Flipping their home run differential. The Reds badly need middle-of-the-order power, the kind that will better align their lineup with the long-ball-friendly vagaries of Great American Ballpark. The Reds gave up 25 more homers than they hit in 2025, postseason included, the fifth-worst differential in the majors. That differential was minus-18 at home. The Reds have the pitching they need to win the NL Central, but they need a major uptick in firepower to support the arms. With Martinez’s salary coming off the books, Cincinnati has a wide-open payroll, which — one would think — means lots of flexibility, whether it’s a free agency splurge or a high-impact trade.
Is it time to really unleash this rotation? The Reds have collected quite a collection of high-upside young pitchers. Some of them have established themselves in the majors — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott. Abbott had a career season in 2025, but Greene still hasn’t paired his dominance with season-long durability. Lodolo produced 28 mostly excellent starts but has plenty of room to grow in his innings count. Then you have Chase Petty, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, along with the veteran stability of Brady Singer. The ideal for 2026 would be for manager Terry Francona to push this group of seven for a full season and perhaps lighten up a bit on the innings management side of the equation. This has the potential to be among MLB’s best rotations.
Offseason prediction: The Reds will get aggressive. No, they won’t go wild, of course, but besides having a contention-worthy rotation and a star in Elly De La Cruz who is edging toward his prime, they have a 66-year-old future Hall of Fame manager in Francona who isn’t going to be around forever. — Doolittle
Eliminated by: Tigers
Key free agents: OF Lane Thomas, C Austin Hedges, RHP Jakob Junis
Biggest offseason priority: The term “Guards Ball” caught on during Cleveland’s unlikely second-half run. It was fun to watch and even inspiring. It’s also not generally how championships are won in baseball these days. The Guardians need more firepower on offense, and while there are a lot of promising bats in the system, maybe for once the team will splurge on a middle-of-the-order anchor? Yeah, that’s probably wishful thinking.
What will Cleveland get from its young hitters? It’s not hard to imagine some of the Guardians we saw on the playoff roster getting better — Kyle Manzardo, CJ Kayfus, Johnathan Rodriguez, Jhonkensy Noel. It’s not hard to see Chase DeLauter becoming an AL Rookie of the Year favorite. Given his numbers at Triple-A, it’s a little harder to see Travis Bazzana being part of the Opening Day mix, but it’s not difficult to envision him making a leap during the 2026 season. The crucial question the Guardians have to answer is: What will this group do to lift the offensive profile of a lineup led by Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan? The Guardians won a division title despite scoring more runs than just two other teams. That’s not a sustainable formula.
Offseason prediction: The Guardians, with prospects on the way and the roster full of players under team control, won’t do much in the offseason. They certainly can afford to with so little future guaranteed funds tied up — a big pillow contract to someone like Ohio native Kyle Schwarber would be amazing — but it’s not likely. So, take heart, Cleveland fans, and enjoy the Guardians’ still-spewing fountain of youth. — Doolittle
Eliminated by: Cubs
Key free agents: 1B/2B Luis Arraez, SP Dylan Cease, SP Michael King ($15M mutual option), CL Robert Suarez ($8M player option), 1B Ryan O’Hearn, OF Ramon Laureano ($6.5M club option), INF Jose Iglesias, RP Wandy Peralta ($4.45M player option), C Elias Diaz ($7M mutual option), SP Nestor Cortes
Biggest offseason priority: Cease and King will venture into free agency, and the Padres will have to replace them in the rotation. San Diego will have Joe Musgrove back in 2026, but he’ll be coming off Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish will still be there, but he’ll be in his age-39 season, having accumulated fewer than 100 innings each of the past two years. The depth beyond them, outside of Nick Pivetta, is suspect. First base will also be a priority unless the team brings Arraez back.
Will they spend again? The Padres lost their local-television contract in 2023, then missed out on the playoffs despite fielding arguably the most talented team in franchise history. Shortly thereafter, Peter Seidler, their beloved, free-spending owner, died. The Padres dropped the payroll by roughly 30% the following year. A 25% increase followed in 2025, putting them at roughly $215 million. Where will they go in 2026? It’s hard to say. But Manny Machado‘s salary will keep increasing — from $13 million in 2025 to $21 million in 2026 and $35 million thereafter. If they want to keep surrounding him with talent as he ages, they’ll have to keep spending.
Offseason prediction: The Padres will pay six players — Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish, Musgrove, Machado and Pivetta — a combined $120 million in 2026. The team’s success will come down to the production of those players — along with Jackson Merrill and Mason Miller, who are still not in their prime earning years. But A.J. Preller will look for ways to acquire a front-line starting pitcher and will get creative if he has to. Last offseason, he landed Pivetta on a deal that paid him only $4 million in 2025. This offseason, that front-line starter might have to come via trade. — Gonzalez
Eliminated by: Yankees
Key free agents: 3B Alex Bregman (opt-out), RHP Lucas Giolito ($19 million mutual option), OF Rob Refsnyder, RHP Dustin May, LHP Steven Matz
Biggest offseason priority: Re-signing Bregman if he opts out … and improving the starting pitching depth. Bregman had a solid season, hitting .273/.360/.462 around an injury, but aside from the numbers he also brings fire and leadership to the team. It’s also possible Bregman will opt back in at $40 million per season (for 2026 and 2027), but he had a good enough season that he’ll probably opt out. Yes, Marcelo Mayer is a possible replacement — especially if the Red Sox direct that money instead to the pitching staff.
Giolito had a solid season as a low-volume starter in his return from Tommy John surgery, so there could be mutual interest there on a longer deal. But outside of Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and perhaps rookie Connelly Early, who looked good in four late-season starts, the projected rotation is unsettled.
Will the Red Sox trade any of their outfielders/young players? It’s still a crowded outfield picture with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu (plus Masataka Yoshida, signed for two more years, as a DH option). It played itself out this season as Abreu and Anthony both missed time with injuries, while Rafaela played some infield. But Rafaela is such a wizard in center field, you’d like to keep him there. Throw in Mayer and Kristian Campbell, and the Red Sox have a deep group of young players who could be used to acquire pitching help. Craig Breslow refrained from trading anyone at the deadline, but let’s see what he does this offseason.
Offseason prediction: I think the Red Sox will play it safe and bring back a similar roster, starting with re-signing Bregman. They could then slide Mayer to second base. That still would leave four outfielders plus Campbell, who started the season with a lot of helium after making the Opening Day roster, but his defense at second wasn’t good, and he didn’t rip up Triple-A after getting sent down. If anyone is the odd man out, it’s probably him, so he’s the one most likely to get traded. Bringing back Giolito — assuming he’s healthy after missing the postseason with an elbow injury — also makes sense, as he wouldn’t break the bank but would fill a need. If he’s deemed too risky, a veteran such as Merrill Kelly or, if the Red Sox want to spend bigger, Framber Valdez or Shane Bieber, makes sense. — Schoenfield
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024