Passan’s first-month MLB takeaways: NL dominance, torpedo bat fallout and breakout stars
One month into the Major League Baseball season, the favorites are playing as expected (for the most part), the stars are off to great starts (more or less) and the game looks as it should (except for the two minor league parks). April offers a window into the next five months, though it’s still slightly opaque — a tease for what’s ahead.
Will there be another historic Aaron Judge season? A team breaking the record for futility just one year after a single-season record for losses was established? A new standard for on-field larceny? All of that and so much more are possible, according to a wide swath of players, coaches, executives, evaluators and analysts ESPN surveyed to understand what in April was real and what was more early-season mirage.
We’ll begin with one thing that is clear enough to say definitively. And while it might not mean anything come October, for May, June, July, August and September, it’s bound to prove true.
The National League is vastly superior to the American League
This disparity was anticipated, yes, but the degree to which the Senior Circuit dwarfs the Junior Circuit in almost every way — from record to run differential to preeminence of the best teams — only reinforces the chasm between the leagues.
Currently, the NL is 224-218 with a plus-69 run differential. And that’s despite the 4-25 Colorado Rockies and their -78 run differential. The combined OPS of NL hitters is 25 points higher than that of AL hitters. They walk more and strike out less, score way more and steal copious bases comparatively and hit more home runs. In interleague games, NL pitchers have an ERA that is more than a third of a run lower than that of their AL counterparts.
There is an argument to be made that seven NL teams are better than the AL’s best team (either the New York Yankees or Detroit Tigers, who have separated themselves by the end of April), and that doesn’t even include the Cincinnati Reds, who have a five-game winning streak and the fourth-best run differential in MLB (aided by a 24-2 win against Baltimore). The NL’s magnificent seven include:
Los Angeles Dodgers: The overwhelming World Series favorites have been just all right since an 8-0 start, with injuries hammering their starting rotation and offensive struggles by third baseman Max Muncy, outfielder Michael Conforto, utility man Kiké Hernández and even shortstop Mookie Betts. And yet the Dodgers still terrify opponents because of games like Sunday, when starter Tyler Glasnow exited because of a shoulder injury and was replaced by Ben Casparius, whose fastball sat at 97 mph, topped out at 99 and complemented a slider and curveball averaging 3,000-plus RPMs of spin. The Dodgers are great because of their stars, but they’re even more dangerous because their replacements also have elite ceilings.
San Diego Padres: For a team that entered 2025 with rotation questions, the Padres have managed to post seven shutouts, the most ever for a team through the end of April. Much of it is owed to their bullpen, which owns an MLB-best 1.66 ERA and has stranded 87.8% of runners, blowing away the league average of 71%. Powered by their nasty bullpen, starters Michael King and Nick Pivetta, and Fernando Tatis Jr. going full superstar mode, the Padres have managed most of April without star center fielder Jackson Merrill and second baseman Jake Cronenworth with aplomb. Once the Padres get healthy, look out.
New York Mets: They sport the best record in MLB — and have gotten to the top of the standings despite slow starts from Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo, with Juan Soto still seeking his power stroke. New York’s pitching has been nothing short of brilliant, with a rotation leading MLB in ERA by nearly three-quarters of a run at 2.27. And that’s without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, two free agent signings who have spent the first month on the injured list. It doesn’t hurt that Pete Alonso was the best hitter in the league in April, and Francisco Lindor is doing Francisco Lindor things, too. There might not be a more electric place to watch a ballgame these days than Citi Field, where the Mets are 13-1 this season.
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have been baseball’s best offense by a significant margin so far and achieved the exceedingly rare 40/40 month: 42 home runs and 44 stolen bases in April. Chicago’s balance isn’t just power-speed, either; it’s up and down the lineup, from Kyle Tucker starting his walk year with a flurry to Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s breakout looking real to Carson Kelly hitting better than anyone in the sport in limited playing time. The Cubs’ pitching is problematic, though, and losing Justin Steele to reconstructive elbow surgery did them no favors. But with an offense on a 977-run pace and the easiest schedule in MLB for the remainder of the season, summer and fall in Wrigley could be a lot of fun.
San Francisco Giants: The season’s biggest surprise so far, the Giants look like the Padres Lite with excellent bullpen performances elevating steadiness across all other facets of the game. Randy Rodriguez has been a revelation in a relief corps that has also seen a bounce-back from Camilo Doval, consistent excellence from Tyler Rogers and the high-octane stuff of Hayden Birdsong playing up out of the pen. The offense has been more of a mixed bag. Willy Adames has struggled at the plate, but Jung Hoo Lee is looking like a potential star and Mike Yastrzemski had his best start in years. San Francisco’s hitters have thrived in big spots, highlighted by Wilmer Flores ranking third in the majors in RBIs thanks to a .387/.457/.677 line with runners in scoring position.
Philadelphia Phillies: Let’s start with the good. On paper, Philadelphia remains one of the toughest teams in the NL. Zack Wheeler is the most consistent ace in baseball, Jesus Luzardo is pitching like the best version of himself, and coupled with Cristopher Sanchez‘s continued ascent, the starting pitchers all combine to make the Phillies a dangerous squad come October. Can they get there, though? The bullpen is a real issue, with the second-worst ERA in baseball (5.25) and only Jose Alvarado exceeding expectations. The bottom third of the Phillies’ lineup also needs to produce more, and the lack of home runs (24, which ranks 23rd in MLB) will catch up to their offense if it persists.
Arizona Diamondbacks: At some point, the Diamondbacks’ pitching is bound to right itself. A rotation of Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt should not have the 24th-ranked starter ERA in MLB. Thankfully for the Snakes, the offense has been elite. Corbin Carroll has turned in an MVP-caliber April, Pavin Smith might be the best platoon player in MLB, Josh Naylor is bordering elite with his swing decisions, and Eugenio Suarez leads the big leagues in home runs. With Ketel Marte back soon and Jordan Lawlar destroying Triple-A, the Diamondbacks’ offensive excellence could get even better. And as long as the pitching stabilizes, Arizona will be a team nobody wants to face now or in October.
The stolen base is back and better than ever, but offense is still meh
When MLB introduced new rules in 2023, the implementation of larger bases and limiting of pickoffs weren’t talked about as much as adding the pitch clock and banning the shift. But both have had a demonstrable effect on the game. Perhaps not quite as much as the pitch clock — nine-inning games are averaging 2 hours, 37 minutes, almost dead even with last year’s 2:36 — but the changes that have brought back the stolen base have been far more significant than those the league hoped would help juice batting average.
Last year, MLB players stole 3,617 bases, the highest number in more than a century. This April’s stolen-base total already exceeds last year’s at this time (714 to 672), and runners aren’t going to stop stealing until catchers show they can more consistently throw them out.
With a success rate of 79.5% on steals of second — and 74.8% on attempts to swipe third — runners are emboldened. Anything in excess of 75% encourages teams to keep running, and with seven teams already pilfering more than 30 bases, they are gladly obliging, turning singles and walks into “doubles” regularly.
And it’s not only the fastest players in baseball who are thriving. Everyone is running. Bryce Harper, nobody’s idea of a stolen-base machine, has six in 29 games after swiping seven last season in 145 games. Manny Machado hasn’t stolen more than a dozen bases since 2018; he’s already halfway there.
On the other hand, an offensive regression last year alarmed executives who were hopeful the runs-per-game jump in 2023 meant offense would continue to blossom under baseball’s new rules. It has not. The numbers from the past four seasons through the end of April:
Walks are up three-tenths of a percentage point and strikeouts are down by the same amount. Runs per game are flat (4.38 last year, 4.34 this year). The ball is being put in play at the highest April rate since 2017 … but defenses are turning more of them into outs than the previous two years of new-rule ball.
The torpedo bat was more moment than game changer
Oh, the halcyon days of opening weekend, when Yankees hitters unleashed the torpedo bat and looked as if they were about to revolutionize baseball.
With this novel-looking piece of equipment that forsook the standard shape of a bat and aimed to place more wood in the part of the bat that strikes balls most frequently, the hitters who embraced the torpedo looked like world beaters. The numbers from that opening series against Milwaukee were undeniably good.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: .417/.500/1.167, 3 HRs, 6 RBIs in 14 PA
Austin Wells: .200/.333/.800, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs in 12 PA
Anthony Volpe: .167/.286/.667, 2 HRs, 4 RBIs in 14 PA
Cody Bellinger: .400/.357/.700, 1 HR, 6 RBIs in 14 PA
Since then, those players’ numbers have been:
Chisholm: .151/.279/.312, 4 HRs, 11 RBIs in 111 PA
Wells: .212/.258/.425, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs in 89 PA
Volpe: .242/.327/.434, 3 HRs, 15 RBIs in 113 PA
Bellinger: .184/.273/.322, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs in 99 PA
The torpedo bat, it turns out, doesn’t erase weaknesses of hitters. It’s also not fool’s gold. Cal Raleigh is using it with his left-handed swing, but not his right — and seven of his 10 homers have come from the left side, where he has an OPS nearly 300 points better than the right. Steven Kwan, who might as well be the anti-Raleigh, is also swinging a torpedo and is batting .333, seventh best in the big leagues.
Because of that opening-weekend blitz, though, the torpedoes will continue to be associated with the Yankees. And it’s worth noting that Judge has continued to swing a traditional bat and not only looks like the best hitter on the planet but by a significant margin. Judge leads MLB in each of the triple-slash categories (.412/.507/.728), ranks second in RBIs (29), second in runs (28) and third in home runs (nine). He is striking out in a career-low 20.6% of his plate appearances and continues to hit the ball harder and more consistently than anyone.
1:35
Why Jeff Passan considers Aaron Judge a little underappreciated
Jeff Passan breaks down Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge’s impressive play to Pat McAfee.
The Rockies are a real threat to the 2024 White Sox as the worst team ever
Where to begin? The Rockies are 4-25. They’re in the midst of their third six-plus-game losing streak. They have not won back-to-back games. They are dreadful on the road (1-14). They are abysmal at night (1-13). They cannot touch left-handed starters (0-9). They are striking out in 28.1% of their plate appearances, which would be a big league record. Their starters’ ERA is 6.73, which would be the worst mark in MLB history. They are 15½ games behind the Dodgers after one month.
The Rockies are not bad — they are tragic. And what’s worst of all is it’s not for lack of trying by their owner, Dick Monfort, who has typically carried a middle-of-the-pack payroll. They are simply a baseball team that can neither score nor prevent runs, with an offense tied for last and a pitching staff that ranks 29th out of 30 teams.
The record of 120 losses held for more than 60 years before the White Sox went 41-121 last year. Their minus-78 run differential through 29 games was exactly the same as Colorado’s, but even the White Sox were 6-23.
Considering the Rockies still have to play 46 games against the Dodgers, Giants, Padres and Diamondbacks, Colorado’s road is far more treacherous than the White Sox’s through the AL Central. So watch out, White Sox. Your reign of futility might be only as a one-year placeholder for the burgeoning champions of misery.
1:14
Jeff Passan: The Rockies spend money, they just don’t spend it well
Jeff Passan tells “The Pat McAfee Show” that the Rockies are on pace to be the worst team in MLB history, surpassing the Chicago White Sox.
The pitching woes of the Orioles and Braves have dug mighty holes
All winter, Orioles fans waited in vain for the move to replace former ace Burnes in Baltimore’s rotation. And after projected Opening Day starter Grayson Rodriguez went down because of a shoulder injury and Zach Eflin hit the injured list because of a lat strain, it has become clearer than ever that the O’s lack the sort of starting pitching to stay competitive in the AL East. Kyle Gibson, their latest effort at replacing Rodriguez and Eflin, gave up four home runs to the Yankees in the first inning of his first start Tuesday. Now 11-18, the Orioles have given up the most runs in the AL and haven’t hit their way out of the pitching deficits they continue to face.
The money Baltimore did spend this winter also has not worked out well. Tyler O’Neill (three years, $49.5 million) has been a league-average player. Gary Sanchez (one year, $8.5 million) has been awful and is hurt. Charlie Morton (one year, $15 million) has the highest ERA in the AL. Andrew Kittredge (one year, $10 million) still hasn’t thrown a pitch. Only Tomoyuki Sugano (one year, $13 million) has been passable, and his lack of strikeouts does not portend good things, though he managed to find success despite it in Japan.
Like the Orioles, Atlanta is suffering from a paucity of pitching depth. The Braves have cycled through an MLB-high 22 pitchers this season, and the loss of Reynaldo Lopez to shoulder surgery, Spencer Strider to a hamstring injury and Joe Jimenez to knee surgery have taken a weakness and made it worse. Things would be better if the Braves were hitting, but outside of Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and Matt Olson — who’s slugging under .400 — the juggernaut lineup of two years ago remains AWOL.
There is hope for Atlanta in the form of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s upcoming return from an ACL tear and Strider’s hamstring healing. And they’re starting to win. Since an 0-7 start, the Braves are 14-8; they’re currently 6½ games behind the Mets and only two shy of the Phillies. It’s still early, but the Braves could soon look more like the team that won the World Series three years ago.
Five pitchers who are 2025’s breakout aces
We’ve focused on the themes and teams that have shaped the first month so far. Now, we’ll turn our attention to the players who have caught our eye, for better … or worse.
Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros: The quietest ace in baseball began his run of dominance early last season but is only now beginning to receive the recognition he warrants. With a fastball up to 99 mph, a vicious sinker, a swing-and-miss changeup and three more pitches, he has the arsenal to complement his moxie. He is the next great Astros pitcher.
Max Meyer, RHP, Miami Marlins: Meyer’s six-inning, 14-strikeout gem against Cincinnati illustrated what the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft can be. His slider is one of the best in MLB and he throws it 50% of the time. Combine it with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and plays at the top of the zone and he’s primed to anchor the Marlins’ rotation with Eury Perez for years to come.
Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Baz sat out nearly two years after Tommy John surgery in 2022, and though he looked excellent in his return last year, there was even more in the tank. Between his 97 mph fastball and hard curveball, he has one of the best two-pitch combinations in baseball. With Shane McClanahan out, the Rays needed one of their young arms to step up, and Baz has done just that.
Matthew Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Continuing the theme of post-hype prospects is the 25-year-old Liberatore, who came into camp as an underdog to win a rotation spot after spending most of last year in the bullpen. He has rewarded the Cardinals with the lowest walk rate in baseball (two in 31 innings) and complemented it with only one home run allowed. With a six-pitch mix, Liberatore has cemented himself as a fixture for a Cardinals team in need of a reimagination.
Nick Pivetta, RHP, San Diego Padres: The 32-year-old Pivetta has spent upward of a decade tantalizing evaluators with his stuff and always found himself done in by the home run ball. In 35⅓ innings this season, he has given up two homers, and three of his six outings ended after seven shutout innings. The best part of Pivetta’s game: He’s getting tremendous amounts of in-zone swing-and-miss, a testament to the quality of his stuff.
Five hitters who are 2025’s breakout bats
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: The 24-year-old Carroll excels at almost everything he tries, which made last year’s first-half swoon so uncharacteristic. His aggressiveness this season — Carroll’s out-of-zone and swing-and-miss percentages have rocketed up — belies an intelligent approach that’s happy to trade whiff for production. Thanks to his speed, Carroll always will be useful. But the Diamondbacks want more than that. And if he maintains anything close to his early-season line (.298/.365/.645), they’ll have a top-10 player in the game.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs: The question with Crow-Armstrong was always about ceiling vs. floor. Because his glove is so good, he could carve out a plenty fine big league career as a defense-first center fielder. But Crow-Armstrong wanted to be a great player, not simply a top-flight defender. His improvements at the plate are clear not only because of the numbers but how he’s getting them. Namely, he’s making good contact on good pitches, going from an in-zone whiff percentage of 24.6% last year to this year’s 13.5%.
James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals: If Wood ever figures out how to consistently elevate the ball, he will be one of the best hitters in baseball. As is, even with an average launch angle of 3.2 degrees — the 11th lowest of 219 qualified hitters — he has managed to whack nine home runs. Five have gone to the opposite field. At 6-foot-7, Wood packs uncommon power, particularly when he goes the other way. He’s starting to get to it, an alarming prospect for pitchers who know that pounding the outside corner is simply an invitation for Wood to do what he does better than just about anyone.
Oneil Cruz, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates: It’s finally looking like the year that one of the most physically talented players in baseball evolves into one of the best. Since he debuted in 2021, the 6-foot-7 Cruz has hit the ball as hard as anyone not named Judge. This season, he is striking out less, walking significantly more, lashing home runs and stealing bases. And while his center-field defense leaves plenty to be desired, it’s a reasonable price to pay for such exceptional offensive production.
Jung Hoo Lee, CF, San Francisco Giants: Lee doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, limiting his ultimate ceiling, so he’ll have to settle for simply being a damn good baseball player. He rarely strikes out. He plays a solid center field. He’s a natural on the basepaths. And at 26, in his first full season after a shoulder injury sustained crashing into an outfield wall last May ended his season, Lee can fulfill his destiny as the best South Korea-born player in MLB since Shin-Soo Choo.
Five players whose slow starts warrant panic
Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians: His strikeouts are down, his walks way up and his home runs allowed alarming. Bibee, signed to a five-year, $48 million contract extension in spring training, added a new cutter this winter — and it’s not working. Neither, at this point, is his fastball, a slower slider and his changeup. In five starts, Bibee has generated only 39 swings and misses. For someone expected to spearhead Cleveland’s rotation, he has a lot of work to do.
Raisel Iglesias, closer, Atlanta Braves: In 11 innings, Iglesias has given up more home runs (five) than he did in 69⅓ innings last year (four). He weathered a precipitous dip in strikeout rate last season, but his slider — always a strength — is catching too much of the strike zone and being ambushed.
Marcus Semien, 2B, Texas Rangers: Semien is a notoriously slow starter, but the lack of power and bat speed is disconcerting even for him. On top of that, he has yet to steal a base in 29 games, and though nobody would ever mistake him for Rickey Henderson, it was always the little things that made Semien such a beloved player. At 34, climbing out of an early-season hole will be that much trickier.
Anthony Santander, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Spending the first month as a $92.5 million free agent below the Mendoza Line is tough. Doing so with a barrel rate that has cratered and only three home runs this year after hitting 44 is doubly so. Santander is not elevating the ball nearly as well as he did in 2024 — a problem Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had last year before his second-half resurgence. If the Blue Jays have any hope of contending in the AL East, they’ll need Santander to do the same.
Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox: The White Sox held onto Robert this winter figuring his value had reached its nadir and that they could rebuild it and move him at the trade deadline. Not only has he been a demonstrably worse hitter, his center-field defense also has plateaued. This is the ultimate change-of-scenery candidate, though with a club option for $20 million in 2026 and 2027, teams could treat Robert as more of a rental than long-term solution. With a turnaround, he could well earn it.
There are six weeks left in the 2025 MLB season, and after it seemed as if some of baseball’s top teams were running away with their divisions early on, we’ve seen those leads shrink to, in some cases, zero.
In the National League West, we’ve seen the Dodgers’ commanding lead be erased entirely, as the Padres now lead their rivals by one game atop the division — and with a series between the two coming up this weekend.
The same has happened in the American League West, with the Astros overtaking the Mariners earlier in the season and building a cushion atop the division, only to see that disappear as Seattle has won eight of its last 10 games to be just one game back from Houston.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have built a comfortable lead in the NL Central — and atop the majors, with the best record in all of baseball — after overtaking the Cubs late last month thanks to a number of winning streaks, including the current 12-game one.
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 18 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 76-44
Previous ranking: 1
Sometimes there just aren’t enough words to describe how a team is doing what it is doing. It becomes less about talent — and, don’t get me wrong, Milwaukee is talented — and more about belief and confidence. The Brewers are riding that high right now, believing every time they step on the field, this is their game. But it still takes production to win, and during their latest win streak, Brice Turang and William Contreras have led them with big hit after big hit. Contreras has been playing top-level baseball over the past two weeks, hitting six home runs in the span of 12 games while Turang hit six in 11. Milwaukee looks unstoppable right now. — Rogers
Record: 69-51
Previous ranking: 2
Ranger Suarez has been dominant on the road this season but imploded against the Reds on Tuesday when he gave up 10 hits and six runs in 5⅓ innings. That game raised Philadelphia’s starting rotation ERA to over 4.00 since the All-Star break. It’s probably not much of a concern as the Phillies have more important days ahead of them, so getting Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo ready for the postseason should be No.1 on the team’s to-do list. A comfortable lead in the division will help that cause come September. — Rogers
Record: 70-51
Previous ranking: 6
As Shane Bieber finishes his minor league rehabilitation and prepares to join the Toronto rotation, manager John Schneider and his staff will have some choices. They could go to a six-man rotation, maybe temporarily, to give the team’s veteran starters a little extra rest in the last weeks of the season. Or they could shift someone to the bullpen. Lefty Eric Lauer has been a revelation for the Jays this year, posting a 3.36 ERA in 13 starts, but he has the most experience out of the ‘pen among the Toronto starters. — Olney
Record: 68-53
Previous ranking: 4
Brock Stewart, the Dodgers’ big deadline addition to the bullpen, is dealing with shoulder inflammation and was placed on the injured list Tuesday, where he joined five other high-leverage relievers. Manager Dave Roberts is once again short on options to hold leads late, but his offense has also been too inconsistent to routinely obtain leads in the first place. And oftentimes when the lineup produces, that day’s starting pitcher does not. The Dodgers have been a sub-.500 team since the start of July and can’t do much right these days, which might make this a really bad time for them to host the surging Padres this weekend. — Gonzalez
Record: 70-52
Previous ranking: 5
As the Tigers try to hold off Cleveland down the stretch, they will have to defend first place head-to-head. Six of Detroit’s final 12 games in the regular season are against the Guardians — at home Sept. 16-18, and in Cleveland Sept. 23-25. But according to FanGraphs, only three teams — the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers — face a weaker schedule than the Tigers over the last quarter of the season. — Olney
Record: 67-54
Previous ranking: 11
The Mariners won their eighth consecutive game Tuesday night and moved into a first-place tie with Houston in the AL West — marking the first time since the start of June that they’ve held a share of the division lead. The Mariners, now a game back after Wednesday’s loss, have won nine of 11 since the front office made a multitude of win-now moves at the trade deadline and will spend these next six-plus weeks gunning for their first division title since 2001. They’ll get some additional help, too, with Bryce Miller rejoining the rotation soon and Victor Robles settling back atop the lineup shortly thereafter. The vibes in Seattle are on another level right now. — Gonzalez
Record: 68-51
Previous ranking: 3
Chicago might have to focus on a wild-card spot, as an offensive slump combined with the Brewers’ hot streak has tanked the Cubs’ percentages to win the division. The good news is the starting staff has kept them above water, ranking first in ERA since the All-Star break. But a power outage in the middle of the order is concerning. Kyle Tucker, who might still be feeling the aftereffects of a jammed finger suffered on June 1, has just a handful of extra-base hits since the calendar turned to July. The power lull has seemingly infected everyone in the lineup — outside of rookie Matt Shaw. — Rogers
Record: 69-52
Previous ranking: 8
Michael King made his long-awaited return to the Padres’ rotation Friday, and though it resulted in an ineffective, two-inning outing, the fact that he was there in the first place was a major development for a Padres team that seems to be rounding into the best version of itself for the season’s stretch run. The lineup — bolstered by the additions of Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin — once again looks deep. The bullpen, fortified by the addition of Mason Miller, is one of the game’s best. The rotation is as close to whole as it has been all year. And now the Padres are poised to take down the Dodgers in the NL West. — Gonzalez
Record: 68-53
Previous ranking: 10
The Astros find themselves in a tight division race with the surging Mariners and will have to try to fend Seattle off, at least in the near term, without their star closer, Josh Hader, who landed on the IL on Tuesday with what the team described as a shoulder strain. The Astros still don’t know the severity of the injury, but manager Joe Espada called it a “punch to the gut.” Hader converted his first 25 save chances this season and sports a 2.05 ERA, with 76 strikeouts in 52⅔ innings. Bryan Abreu can be a capable closer in the meantime, but Hader’s absence significantly weakens the entirety of the bullpen. — Gonzalez
Record: 66-56
Previous ranking: 9
It seems appropriate that Roman Anthony wears No. 19 for the Red Sox, since his immediate impact is similar to the work of another Red Sox player who wore No. 19: Fred Lynn, the 1975 Rookie of the Year and MVP. Anthony has a 135 OPS+ with an on-base percentage of .399 in 53 games, and, like Lynn in his rookie season, Anthony has quickly become a core piece of Boston’s offense. — Olney
Record: 64-55
Previous ranking: 7
A collective slump at the plate since late July has been maddening for New York, although Pete Alonso setting the franchise record for home runs was a recent bright spot. Maybe the Mets will look back at their 13-5 win over Atlanta on Tuesday — when Alonso set the mark — as a turning point.
Right now, you could throw a dart at their roster and you’ll probably hit a player who is struggling at the plate. That does actually include Alonso, who has an OBP under .250 since the All-Star break. Francisco Lindor might be the most frustrated of the group as he’s hitting .188 over his last 23 games. As he and Alonso go, so do the Mets. They’re too good to continue on the pace they were on before Tuesday. — Rogers
Record: 64-57
Previous ranking: 12
Some of New York’s trade deadline acquisitions started out their Yankees campaigns infamously, with that ugly game in Miami. But in the past eight days, reliever David Bednar has provided some stability for the bullpen, twice making five-out appearances while striking out 12 in seven innings over that span. Manager Aaron Boone has more to figure out about his bullpen, but he seems to have settled on a closer. — Olney
Record: 64-58
Previous ranking: 14
A starting staff that ranks fourth in the NL in ERA got a boost with the return of Hunter Greene from injury. Could that be the difference-maker Cincinnati needs to make a playoff push? It might be a moot point if the Reds don’t hit enough. Every few games, they show signs of being capable of a potent offense, but then they revert to lower-scoring days, as they did last week in losing three games while scoring a total of just three runs. Miguel Andujar came up big over the past seven days, compiling an OPS over 1.300. The Reds need more contributions like that. — Rogers
Record: 62-57
Previous ranking: 15
Cleveland has won 21 of its past 30 games, thriving through a period in which it lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a leave of absence related to a gambling investigation; traded Shane Bieber, who had been expected to join the Cleveland rotation down the stretch; and listened to offers for Steven Kwan. The Guardians’ improbable surge is reminiscent of that of the 2024 Tigers. — Olney
Record: 61-61
Previous ranking: 13
The Rangers won their second consecutive game against the Yankees on Aug. 5, at which point they stood just a half-game back of a playoff spot. It seemed then as if the 2023 World Series champs — a team that has spent most of the time since searching for some consistent offense — were finally poised to make their move. Then Texas slipped once more, getting swept at home by the Phillies and totaling just seven runs over the course of a four-game losing streak. The Rangers are running out of time to showcase the consistent baseball they still believe they’re capable of. — Gonzalez
Record: 61-61
Previous ranking: 19
Is this the real Jordan Walker? Has he finally arrived? OK, that might be over the top for a .233 hitter, but he has been on a nice run since the All-Star break, hitting around .300, though with just one home run. More recently, he had an 8-for-16 stretch that included back-to-back three-hit games. His development is part of the Cardinals’ big picture strategy for the season, which has been all about allowing their young players to succeed or fail without looking over their collective shoulders too much. Outside of going on the IL due to appendicitis, Walker has had that opportunity. Could 2026 finally be the year for the 23-year-old? Stay tuned. — Rogers
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants haven’t had a winning month since April. At this point, they’re clearly playing for next year. With that in mind, though, perhaps Rafael Devers, the mid-June acquisition that was supposed to catapult them to the top of the NL West, is finally starting to figure out Oracle Park and get back to who he is. After slashing just .230/.337/.368 in July, Devers is slashing .267/.389/.556 in his first 12 games of August. Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters Devers is “taking more balanced swings, a little more fluid,” a result, Melvin thinks, of no longer trying to do too much. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-61
Previous ranking: 18
On the day that Kansas City acquired Adam Frazier, one rival evaluator was confused by the move, citing Frazier’s struggles in Pittsburgh, where he hit .255 with a .318 OBP. But the Royals got Frazier in part because of his stabilizing influence in the clubhouse, and he has played well for Kansas City so far, hitting over .300 and helping to spur an offense that has been significantly better of late. In the first half of the season, the Royals ranked 29th of 30 teams in runs scored; since the All-Star break, they rank sixth. — Olney
Record: 59-63
Previous ranking: 17
Tampa Bay has an excellent track record for flipping proven talent and developing the young players they acquire in return. However, that has not been the case for Christopher Morel, who has had a disappointing season with a minus-0.6 WAR. Morel, who came to the Rays from the Cubs last year in the swap for Isaac Paredes, has 18 walks and 88 strikeouts in 241 plate appearances in 2025. — Olney
Record: 58-62
Previous ranking: 20
Miami’s chances at making a wild-card run took a hit last week when it batted .218 as a team with two home runs over a span of six games. The Marlins lost five of them, including a crushing doubleheader sweep by the Braves over the weekend. Game 2 was the killer, as the Marlins led 4-0 before falling 8-6. In those six games, Kyle Stowers went 2-for-21 (.095) as Miami ranked 27th in OPS for the week. It helped drop them further behind the other NL wild-card teams. — Rogers
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 21
Geraldo Perdomo has quietly been among the game’s best shortstops over the past four years, and now he’s in the midst of his best season. The switch-hitting 25-year-old boasts a .955 OPS since the start of July, putting his slash line up to .286/.386/.443 this season. Combine that with his typically solid defense and opportunistic baserunning, and Perdomo already compiled 4.7 FanGraphs WAR, ranked eighth among position players. It’s clear why the D-backs gave him a four-year, $45 million extension earlier this year — despite the presence of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. — Gonzalez
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 22
Zach Neto homered twice against the Dodgers on Monday, then turned a triple play against Shohei Ohtani in what amounted to a massive momentum shift in another Angels victory Tuesday. The latter, Neto said, was the highlight. It accounted for the first triple play of his life, and it came against one of the game’s best players. “It was pretty special,” said Neto, who was perfectly positioned to catch Ohtani’s line drive up the middle, then stepped on second base and fired to first, all in a matter of roughly three seconds. The Angels once again don’t have much to play for this season, but they completed a sweep of the Dodgers on Wednesday and finished 6-0 against their crosstown rivals this season. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-63
Previous ranking: 23
With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, rival GMs believe that Minnesota was never actually open to the idea of trading right-hander Joe Ryan. With the Twins’ announcement that they’ll be adding new minority owners, there will be questions about whether Ryan can be locked down to a long-term deal, but even if that doesn’t happen, his trade value will continue to be sky-high, assuming he stays healthy, into the offseason. Cast against the landscape of a relatively thin free agent starting pitching class, he’d be in high demand from contenders. — Olney
Record: 54-66
Previous ranking: 24
A rival executive mused last week about Baltimore’s thin pitching and saturation of position player prospects. “The Orioles should have Garrett Crochet,” he said, noting how well Baltimore matched up with what the White Sox reportedly were looking for in a Crochet trade. This is just one what-if in a long list of what-ifs as the Orioles begin the process of building a pitching staff for 2026. — Olney
Record: 52-68
Previous ranking: 25
If the Braves are going to quickly return to contender status next season, they’ll need Spencer Strider at his best. That hasn’t been the case in his first season back after undergoing elbow surgery. Strider has given up 13 runs in 8⅔ innings this month after having an OK July where he threw two quality starts in five outings. We’ll see where his fastball velocity is next spring, but right now, it’s down 3 mph from 2022, 2 mph from 2023 and 1 mph from before his injury. Can he be successful at 95 mph rather than 98 mph? — Rogers
Record: 54-69
Previous ranking: 26
The A’s still have a lot of work to do to become competitive again, but their offense is legitimately promising. And one of the many reasons for that is Shea Langeliers, the 27-year-old catcher who slumped through the first two months of the season but has been one of the game’s best hitters in recent weeks. Since the All-Star break, Langeliers ranks second in the majors with a 1.227 OPS — just behind his teammate, Nick Kurtz, at 1.249 — and has accumulated 12 home runs, tied with Kyle Schwarber for tops in the sport. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-71
Previous ranking: 27
When will the misery end for Pirates fans? They’ve lost five in a row, including a Paul Skenes start in which Milwaukee beat them 14-0 on Tuesday. Pittsburgh’s problem is the same as it has always been: It can’t hit. Consider this: The Pirates have hit a major league-worst 86 home runs, which is 17 less than the Padres, who rank 29th. And it’s an astounding 105 home runs behind the Yankees, who lead MLB. Without more power next season, Pittsburgh will land right back where it is now … in last place in the division. — Rogers
Record: 44-77
Previous ranking: 28
The only member of the White Sox organization under contract for 2026 is Andrew Benintendi, for $17.1 million. Otherwise, moving forward, the White Sox have almost no payroll obligations. This made it easy for them to bet on the upside of Luis Robert Jr. and keep him through the deadline; presumably, they will pick up his $20 million option in the winter, and they’ll continue to hope that Robert’s potential fully manifests. — Olney
Record: 48-72
Previous ranking: 29
Somehow the Nationals do not have the worst ERA in baseball since the All-Star break despite looking horrendous on the mound. Their struggles there have affected every part of their pitching staff — MacKenzie Gore gave up eight runs in a recent start, Jake Irvin gave up six and Mitchell Parker gave up five. Washington feels like it’s playing out the string on the mound as the staff has given up 80 runs in eight losses this month. The team needs some overhauling in the offseason, starting with a new general manager and manager. — Rogers
Record: 32-88
Previous ranking: 30
August is only 14 days old and it already includes an eight-game losing streak for the Rockies. The Rockies have suffered through five eight-game losing streaks this season. Their run differential is a whopping minus-326, more than double that of the second-worst team (the Nationals at minus-148). And of their remaining 13 series, seven will come against teams that will likely be in the playoffs this year, including three against the Dodgers and Padres. With a little more than six weeks remaining, the Rockies are on pace for 119 losses, two shy of the modern-day record set by the 2024 White Sox. It’s going to be close. — Gonzalez
A week into the 2025 MLB season, we created our annual MLB Rank list of the top 100 players in baseball to answer the question: Who will be the best player in 2025?
More than four months later, we asked 17 ESPN MLB experts to give their ranking of the top 50 players in the sport this season. We averaged those lists to create our first MLB Rank in-season update — giving us a chance not only to take a look at who has excelled this season, but also see what we got right (and wrong) on our initial top-100 player ranking.
Our list features the MVPs and Cy Young Award winners you’d expect, as well as the budding young megastars who have broken out this season and could dominate MLB for many years. However, because we asked voters to rank players based on their overall impact on the 2025 season — combining what they’ve done with what we expect them to do the rest of the way — you won’t see notable names such as Mookie Betts, Yordan Alvarez or Ronald Acuña Jr. on this list.
So, who’s No. 1? Where does the best player on your team rank? And how different does this top 50 look compared with our top 100 at the beginning of the season? To go with our updated ranking, 10 of our voters also broke down what each player has done and what to expect over the final months of the season.
More: Snubs, surprises and more
Jump to team’s top-ranked player:
American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | MIN
NYY | SEA | TEX | TOR
(No top 50 players: CHW, LAA, TB)
National League
ARI | CHC | CIN | LAD
MIA | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | WSH
(No top 50 players: ATL, COL, MIL, STL)
What he has done so far: Judge has followed his historic 2024 season with another historically productive campaign that has him on a path toward his second straight American League MVP and third in four seasons. The Yankees captain, despite a relative “slump” since the beginning of June, leads the majors in wRC+ and batting average by comfortable margins, and is within striking distance in home runs and RBIs as he seeks to become the AL’s second Triple Crown winner since 1967. He’s still the best hitter in the world.
What to expect from here: The Yankees go as Judge goes, and a recent flexor strain produced a scare for a club suddenly fighting for a playoff spot. Judge returned after the minimum 10 days on the injured list, but he’s limited to DH for the time being. While the flexor strain impacts his throwing far more than his hitting, it also affects his ability to grip a bat. He should win AL MVP as long as he stays on the field, but that’s not a guarantee for the remainder of the season. — Jorge Castillo
What he has done so far: Two-way Ohtani has (almost) been fully unlocked. His second year with the Dodgers has seen him put together another dominant offensive season, the type that might merit the National League MVP Award. But now he’s shining on the mound, too. The Dodgers took their time with Ohtani’s pitching progression, and have him stretched out to four innings at the moment. He’s coming off a second repair of his ulnar collateral ligament, and yet he is as effective now as ever.
What to expect from here: The expectation is that Ohtani will start games in October. The question facing the Dodgers is how much they stretch him out. They want his arm, of course, but they’re also conscious about taxing him to where it affects his offense — or worse, leads to another injury. We’ve already seen Ohtani take a major step back with stolen bases. That was expected. But for as good as Ohtani can be — and already is — as a pitcher, he’s even more important as a catalyst atop the Dodgers’ lineup. So, they’ll tread carefully. — Alden Gonzalez
What he has done so far: After winning the Cy Young Award last season, Skubal has gotten better in 2025: higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, lower batting average allowed and pitching slightly deeper into games. His SO-BB% is one of the highest of all time. He doesn’t have the AL Cy Young locked up, given the strong competition, but the consensus view is he’s the top starter in the majors.
What to expect from here: With Cleveland drawing closer in the division, it will be interesting to see if the Tigers push Skubal a little harder. He has made six starts on four days of rest this season, but since the All-Star break, he has gone eight days, five days, six days and five days between starts. You want to keep him strong for the postseason, but you need to get there first. — David Schoenfield
What he has done so far: Break records. Become the physical and spiritual leader of an ascendant Mariners team. Play all but three of the Mariners’ 119 games, a seeming impossibility for a modern catcher. Bang a major-league-leading 45 home runs, fitting for a Home Run Derby champion. The defense is still elite, too: He has one of the five most dangerous arms and is a top-10 framer. More impressive than all the numbers, narrative and MVP talk is that he has gotten a nation of people to refer to him as the Big Dumper with a straight face.
What to expect from here: Other records could fall. Four more home runs and he beats Salvador Perez’s single-season mark for catchers. Another 11 will tie Ken Griffey Jr.’s Mariners record of 56. Perhaps the AL mark of 62 by Judge is out of reach, but it’s impossible to say with the sort of heaters Raleigh has gone on multiple times this season. With the thump that surrounds him in Seattle’s lineup, he doesn’t have quite the same onus to carry the Mariners. But if there’s a big at-bat, there’s only one person they want to take it. — Jeff Passan
What he has done so far: Witt hasn’t been as special as he was in 2024, but he has still been great. Few players can match his elite skill set, from bat speed to foot speed to defensive range and arm strength. If teams had to redraft the majors from scratch, Witt might be the first player off the board. It has all been on full display in 2025.
What to expect from here: A big finish. Witt hasn’t had one of the extended torrid stretches that he has enjoyed the past two seasons, though he has had some hot streaks. Lately, his plate discipline — the one remaining weak spot — has ticked up, which could portend a surge for a player hoping to carry his club back to the playoffs, and one who is uniquely suited for such a project. — Bradford Doolittle
What he has done so far: Continuing the best start to a pitching career MLB has seen in a long time. Arguably ever. Among qualified starters, he throws harder than everyone (98.4 mph average fastball), has the lowest ERA of anyone (1.94), a strikeout rate in the 87th percentile, walks hitters less frequently than three-quarters of his peers and is pretty damn great at everything. This is the most exciting start to a career since Shohei Ohtani.
What to expect from here: More of the same, right? Why would you think any differently? That Skenes is also doing this with the Pirates, receiving 2.9 runs per game, which ranks 118th out of 127 pitchers who have made at least 14 starts, according to Baseball-Reference — only reinforces his dominance when one run can be the difference between a win and a loss. His record is 7-8. No starter has won the National League Cy Young with a record of .500 or below. Will Skenes become the first? — Passan
What he has done so far: Despite some struggles against left-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong is high on the list thanks to a rare combination of power, speed and defense — especially at the all-important position of center field. It’s why he ranks third in baseball in wins above replacement, even though his on-base percentage is just under .300. His ability to hit pitches outside the strike zone for damage was a signature part of his game for most of the first half. And one reason he’s a top-10 player.
What to expect from here: It would be hard for Crow-Armstrong to repeat his first half, when he hit 21 home runs in about nine weeks, so expect great glove work the rest of the way, a bunch of stolen bases and the more occasional home run — at least compared with his previous pace. The good news is he has been more selective at the plate lately, seeing his on-base percentage creep up thanks to laying off some pitches he was swinging at previously. He probably won’t improve that much against lefties before next season, but he’s still dangerous: Seven of his 27 home runs have come against left-handed pitching. — Jesse Rogers
What he has done so far: Ramirez has been his same ol’ MVP-caliber self, though his Guardians might miss the playoffs for the fourth time in the past 10 seasons. He sports the ninth-most WAR (4.9) and is the only hitter to rank among the top 20 in batting average, home runs and stolen bases. Ramirez is a 20/20 player for the seventh consecutive nonshortened season, tied for the fourth-longest streak in history.
What to expect from here: The Guardians have shaved 9½ games off their AL Central standings deficit in the past month and are again in striking distance of a wild-card spot. His veteran leadership plays a huge part in their October prospects (and, with it, his gaining MVP votes). He has a legitimate chance at his first .300 batting average since 2017, as well as a second straight 30/40 season. — Tristan Cockcroft
What he has done so far: One of baseball’s true aces, Wheeler leads the majors in strikeouts, is eighth in ERA and third in WHIP. He remains an NL Cy Young hopeful, though he might have to settle for another second-place finish (he has two already).
What to expect from here: Normally, we would say expect greatness, but Wheeler’s recent struggles — he’s 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA, seven HRs and five HBPs in his past five starts — must concern the Phillies, especially when his slump has come with recent diminished fastball velocity, likely due to shoulder stiffness that pushed his weekend start back a few days. The Phillies boast rotation depth. They might need it in a surprising way. — Eric Karabell
What he has done so far: If Skubal doesn’t win the AL Cy Young Award this year, Crochet will. He has been what the Red Sox had hoped for when they moved aggressively to trade for him last winter. Imagine how different the baseball landscape would look to the Orioles, who had the prospect power to win the Crochet bidding last winter, if they had landed an ace.
What to expect from here: Crochet, three years removed from Tommy John surgery, is just 26 years old and locked into the long-term deal (six years, $170 million) he signed with the Red Sox this past spring. Boston has its No. 1 starter for the foreseeable future. — Buster Olney
What he has done so far: Tucker had about as steady a first half of the season as you’ll find. One minor slump didn’t impact his ability to start his first All-Star Game, and his combination of speed, power and defense has come in handy playing in Wrigley Field, where the weather is ever-changing. Players need to adjust their game, and Tucker found plenty of ways to reach base over the first three months of the season. It’s why he ranks around the top 10 in WAR and why the Cubs are in the playoff hunt.
What to expect from here: Tucker has struggled for most of July and August. He’s fouling balls off that he should be hitting hard and swinging and missing more often than usual. He’s also hitting too many ground balls — though some have been smoked right at the infielder. Tucker is too good for this to continue. Expect a hot finish to his season — and his free agent year. The foul balls are a sign he’s close to breaking out. — Rogers
What he has done so far: Soto’s first season in Queens, as the player with the most lucrative deal in baseball history, has been underwhelming relative to expectations after his slow start.
Though still one of the most productive hitters in the majors, his numbers across the board — batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS+ and wRC+ among them — have regressed from his MVP-level platform campaign with the Yankees in 2024. Still, he should’ve been an All-Star, and nearly every player would gladly take this as a “down” year.
What to expect from here: Soto has historically peaked in the second half with better power production, so the safe bet is a return to elite form down the stretch after a torrid June and average July. The Mets’ offense, sputtering for long stretches this season, could use it as New York looks to hold on to a playoff spot. — Castillo
What he has done so far: Tatis hasn’t reached his offensive heights from before his injury and suspension, but his off-the-charts defensive metrics have helped him to one of the highest WAR totals in the NL (he leads all right fielders with 16 defensive runs saved). He has already drawn a career high in walks, giving him a high OBP, while also cutting down on his strikeouts.
What to expect from here: Tatis stormed out of the gate in April, hitting .345 with eight home runs, but then scuffled in May and June before picking it up again in July, when he hit .308 with a .438 OBP. The Padres don’t hit a lot of home runs, and to secure a playoff position, they might need the power Tatis provided earlier in the season. — Schoenfield
14. Kyle Schwarber, DH, Philadelphia Phillies
What he has done so far: Schwarbombs are once again the norm in Philadelphia as one of the game’s most prolific power hitters of his era already has 42 home runs. Does Schwarber ever hit one that isn’t a no-doubter? And though he strikes out a lot, he also takes his walks. It’s why he can fit anywhere in a lineup. His top-20 ranking in WAR as a designated hitter is impressive. He has been the offensive MVP of the first-place Phillies.
What to expect from here: With his on-base percentage trending toward a career high, Schwarber’s production might be the easiest to predict: more home runs and more walks. If he’s challenged, it’s leaving the park. If not, he’ll jog to first instead of around the bases. The playoffs are when he really shines, as he has done it all throughout his career in every situation. No moment is too big for Schwarber, so expect Schwarbombs to rain down when Philly needs them most. — Rogers
What he has done so far: De La Cruz’s second full season as a major leaguer has been a step forward in nearly every offensive category. He’s getting on base more and striking out significantly less while providing a similar slugging output. He’s stealing fewer bases, but he’s also getting caught less while supplying the highest baserunning value in the sport. The metrics suggest he has regressed defensively at shortstop, but De La Cruz, still just 23 years old, remains on a superstar track for an organization battling for a postseason ticket.
What to expect from here: De La Cruz fell off down the stretch in 2024, his first full major league season, so the final six weeks will be a test. A strong July — he slashed .305/.389/.442 with seven steals in 25 games — suggests 2025 could be different. Perhaps a playoff race will bring out his best. — Castillo
16. Will Smith, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
What he has done so far: Smith was already one of the game’s best catchers, but now, at age 30, he is in the midst of his best offensive season, setting career highs in batting average and on-base percentage while on track to reach 20 home runs for the fourth time in five years. He’s making better swing decisions, but he has also held up strong one year after his numbers cratered in the second half. A big reason is probably the presence of rookie Dalton Rushing, who is allowing Smith to squeeze in more rest days each week.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers haven’t been playing all that great since the start of July. Their lead over San Diego has shrunk because of it, and they have six games against the Padres coming in the next couple of weeks. Expect Smith to play a lot more during the stretch run of the season. With Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and others slumping to varying degrees this year, the Dodgers need Smith’s bat in the middle of their lineup as often as possible. — Gonzalez
What he has done so far: If Machado never played another game, he would have already done enough to be elected into the Hall of Fame: a seven-time All-Star, two Gold Glove Awards, more than 2,000 hits and he’s closing in on 400 homers.
What to expect from here: He just turned 33 years old, so he’s still in the prime of his career, with an adjusted OPS of 135 this season. The Padres got close to reaching the World Series in 2024 and have a shot again this year, and Machado has demonstrated a knack for thriving on the big stage. — Olney
What he has done so far: Carroll is in the conversation for the most dynamic player in baseball. (His MLB-leading 14 triples don’t hurt the case.) He’s good at pretty much everything. He hits for power. He’s the best baserunner in the big leagues. He uses his speed to catch up to everything in the outfield — and, as if he has heard the criticism about his arm, is throwing 3 mph faster this year. Carroll has a touch of that prime Mike Trout ability to acknowledge a weakness and fix it the next season. Bit by bit, Carroll keeps getting better. And considering how good he is, that’s saying something.
What to expect from here: Carroll has evolved. Long respected for his willingness not to chase, he now goes after out-of-zone pitches — and clearly with good results, as his numbers show. His strikeout rate spiked to 21% in the second half last year, when he shook off a bad first half and finished with aplomb, and this year, he’s striking out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances. Carroll is continuously trying to find that balance between patience and aggressiveness at the plate, and when he does — the old Trout skill — watch out. — Passan
What he has done so far: Over the past two seasons, Sanchez’s sinker velocity has spiked 3.2 mph, which has made his slider firmer. It also has enhanced the effectiveness of his changeup, which is now the third-best pitch in the majors in terms of run value, per Baseball Savant. In 2025, he has 11 wins with a 2.36 ERA, good for fourth best in the majors, and a 1.08 WHIP.
What to expect from here: He’s the fourth-best pitcher by WAR over the past two seasons combined, so you can expect him to stay on the current track he’s on — asserting himself as one of the best pitchers in the game when it matters, down the stretch and into the playoffs this fall. — Kiley McDaniel
20. Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
What he has done so far: As well as he is regarded, Marte remains a bit underrated, especially for someone who has continued to be one of baseball’s best all-around hitters even after turning 30 years old. Marte had a career OPS+ of 114 through his age-29 season. Now 31, Marte has been at a 154 OPS+ since reaching an age when middle infielders are supposed to hit their downside. He has been doing it long enough for Arizona that he’s now third on the Diamondbacks’ career WAR leaderboard.
What to expect from here: Marte has to focus on finishing strong. He has had a tough year — he was taunted by a fan about his late mother in Chicago and his home was burglarized during the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to make the playoffs, but Marte has a chance to earn a few down-ballot MVP votes once again. — Doolittle
What he has done so far: Perhaps we should have expected this from a shortstop who won a World Series MVP as a rookie. Peña is a high-caliber defensive shortstop with some of the fastest wheels in the game. He’s hitting like a star this year, too, and even if some of it is driven by the eighth-best average on balls in play (.354) among 201 players with at least 300 plate appearances, who cares? In that same cohort, only 34 players strike out at a lower rate than Peña — and just three have a higher slugging percentage than his .484.
What to expect from here: The BABIP suggests a regression is in store, particularly considering Peña has not hit the ball hard compared with his statistical peers. Even if his season evens out, he is still one of the five best-performing shortstops in baseball. But what if this offensive breakout isn’t an anomaly? What if the combination of consistent contact and barrel-to-ball ability makes for a good hitter? Peña has both right now, and he’s batting 44 points higher than his career average coming into the season. Which version he really is will help determine whether he’s very good or great. — Passan
What he has done so far: In some ways, it has been another frustrating season for J-Rod, as his offensive numbers have, once again, failed to match what he did in his first two seasons in 2022 and ’23. But he has also played a superlative center field, he plays every day, he might still finish with a 30/30 season and he’s about to reach 5.0 WAR for the third time in his career.
What to expect from here: Rodriguez is a renowned second-half hitter (his career OPS in August and September is over .900 compared with .654 in April), and he’s showing signs of heating up once again. The Mariners would love to see him replicate what he did last September, when he hit .328 with 22 RBIs. History says that might happen. — Schoenfield
What he has done so far: Brown has been extremely steady this season, highlighted by his first seven starts, when he pitched six innings or more in each of them. Other than a couple of blips, there hasn’t been much drop-off in his game, as Brown ranks in the top 10 in ERA and strikeouts for the first-place Astros. Batters are hitting just .156 off a fastball that averages nearly 97 mph. He gives up just 6.2 hits per nine innings, best in the league.
What to expect from here: Brown is already off to a good start this month, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t finish strong. He threw 170 innings last season, plus another 5⅔ innings in the postseason, so he’s conditioned for whatever comes next. If he hasn’t replaced Framber Valdez as the Astros’ No.1 pitcher, then he’s no worse than 1-A. The pair gives Houston a lethal 1-2 combo for the postseason, when Brown should be as dominant as he has been all year. Expect an October gem or two from him. — Rogers
What he has done so far: The Blue Jays, once again, failed to land premium free agents last offseason, and there was uncertainty about whether they could lock down their homegrown superstar. They ultimately did, lavishing Guerrero with a 14-year, $500 million extension in early April. And since then, they’ve seen a team shine around him. The Blue Jays have surged to the top of the American League East, and Guerrero has produced like one would expect while at the center of it.
What to expect from here: Last year, Guerrero turned around a lackluster season and finished sixth in MVP voting with a dominant last 4½ months. This year, he has incrementally gotten better each month. Now, with the Blue Jays looking to stave off the Tigers and Astros and others to nail down a first-round bye, they need Guerrero to be at his best. For whatever reason, Guerrero’s production in September is his worst of any month (career .267/.337/.456 slash line). That needs to change this year. — Gonzalez
What he has already done so far: It’s not a given that a team gets high-end production from a player on a megadeal, but that’s what has happened for the Mets with Lindor. He is nearly halfway through that 10-year, $341 million contract he signed in 2022 and remains a preeminent shortstop.
What to expect from here: Lindor is in exceptional condition, and even if there’s a time in the distant future when the Mets want to move him off shortstop, his transition will likely be very smooth. He has missed more than 20 games in a season only once. And soon, he’ll be closing in on 2,000 career hits and 300 career homers. — Olney
What he’s done so far: Buxton has recaptured some of the oomph in his bat that he lost in 2023-24, driving in a career-best 60 runs behind 24 home runs this season while sporting his best hard hit rate (55.3%). But perhaps most importantly, he has remained on the Twins’ active roster for more than 70% of their games. His 4.0 WAR is already tied for his third-best single-season number, and he has 85th percentile-or-better Statcast xwOBA, sprint speed and defensive outs above average.
What to expect from here: After remaining in Minnesota beyond the trade deadline, reportedly by his choice, Buxton is the centerpiece of a gutted Twins roster. He’s on the mend from a rib cartilage injury, and he might set personal bests in home runs and perhaps steal 20-plus bases for the first time since 2017. But with the Twins already looking ahead to 2026, they won’t push him any more than necessary over the last months of the season. — Cockcroft
What he has done so far: Yamamoto took the mound in Game 2 of the World Series last fall, in the wake of a rookie season tarnished by a prolonged stint on the injured list, and dominated the Yankees through 6⅓ innings. That start, Yamamoto later said, gave him confidence about how he could perform in the major leagues. He has followed that with a 2025 campaign in which he is in the running for the NL Cy Young Award, showing why he became coveted enough out of Japan to sign the largest deal by a starting pitcher.
What to expect from here: In a season that has seen them, once again, suffer a litany of injuries to their pitching staff — most notably to fellow frontline starters Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow — the Dodgers have kept Yamamoto’s innings manageable, even though he has taken every turn through the rotation. They hope this not only keeps Yamamoto’s right arm healthy but that it puts him at his best for the stretch run. He’s trending toward being the Dodgers’ Game 1 starter in October. He’s the logical choice. — Gonzalez
28. Framber Valdez, SP, Houston Astros
What he has done so far: The reliable lefty remains a picture of consistency, pacing toward his best season yet in WAR and having won more games than home runs permitted. Valdez is fourth in innings and is one of two pitchers (Nick Lodolo is the other) with more than one complete game (Bob Gibson would mock the current state of pitching).
What to expect from here: The Astros will continue to depend heavily on the top of their rotation, especially Valdez. He has won 10 of 11 decisions, and he boasts a 1.65 ERA in home games. His next outing should come at home this weekend. — Karabell
What he has done so far: The Marlins’ shocking turnaround this season has been largely fueled by Stowers’ emergence as one of the best hitters in baseball.
The 27-year-old outfielder has been consistently elite, peaking with a blistering July in which he compiled a 1.269 OPS with 10 home runs. He made his first All-Star team and should receive down-ballot MVP votes. He’s a cornerstone for a franchise with a bright future. It all happened suddenly, but it looks to be for real.
What to expect from here: Stowers’ underlying numbers strongly suggest this is not a fluke. His Baseball Savant page is filled with red. He ranks in the 97th percentile in barrel rate, 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate, 93rd percentile in xwOBA and 89th percentile in bat speed. He strikes out a bunch — his strikeout and whiff rates are in the 8th and 4th percentiles, respectively — but he hits the ball hard often, and that is a rock-solid formula for steady success. — Castillo
30. Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees
What he has done so far: Fried was dominant through June, posting a 1.92 ERA in 108 innings across 17 starts to pitch himself into the AL Cy Young conversation. It was the ace-level performance the Yankees needed to offset the losses of Gerrit Cole for the season and Luis Gil for the first half. But Fried hasn’t been the same pitcher since the start of July. The All-Star left-hander recorded a 5.54 ERA in five July starts, allowing at least three runs in each outing, and he surrendered four runs over five innings in each of his first two games in August.
What to expect from here: A blister on Fried’s left index finger ended his start against the Cubs on July 12 after three innings. He avoided the IL, but it’s impossible to ignore the issue coinciding with his regression. It’s an issue Fried has dealt with — and overcome — in the past. Whether he returns to his previous form remains to be seen. — Castillo
What he has done so far: Henderson burst onto the scene in 2023 and 2024 and has posted the third-most shortstop WAR since then, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Francisco Lindor. Henderson, 24, has 3.7 WAR this season, as he’s hitting .284 — a higher average than he finished with last season — with a .464 slugging percentage.
What to expect from here: He has established himself as one of the best infielders in the game, even if his 2024 numbers look like an outlier season. However, I expect his numbers to tick up in the last month-plus of the 2025 season. — McDaniel
32. Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
What he has done so far: It has been a representative age-32 season for Turner, though his power numbers are down. But because he has never had a lot of walks, he has been more reliant on batting average. Luckily, he’s one of baseball’s top hitters for average, and he remains an offensive force for one of baseball’s top attacks.
What to expect from here: Turner has lost a bit of bat speed over the past couple of years, and the decline in isolated power might be who he is. He hasn’t homered since June. But Turner remains an exceptional athlete and a key part of the Phillies’ push for a title as a star-level player who helps his team all across the stat sheet. — Doolittle
33. Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
What he has done so far: A couple of ailments kept Harper out of the lineup long enough this season that his counting stats aren’t lofty, but he’s as dangerous as ever when it matters most, as evidenced by his .379 OBP and .866 OPS with runners in scoring position. Pitchers still fear him as he possesses one of the most violent swings in the sport. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.68) is his lowest since 2021 and one of the lowest of his career. His game screams winning.
What to expect from here: Harper understands what’s in front of him: another chance at a ring — perhaps the last with this group of Phillies. Expect a big finish during which he helps his team to a division title and then does what he always does in the postseason: hit critical home runs. Harper has a career 1.016 OPS in the playoffs. Another great October could cement him as one of the better postseason performers of his era — if he isn’t already. — Rogers
What he has done so far: Kurtz was somewhat unexpected as the No. 4 pick in last summer’s draft, with Jac Caglianone still on the board. They’re both now in the big leagues ahead of schedule, but Kurtz’s 3.4 WAR vs. Cags’ minus-1.3 WAR isn’t what anyone expected, on either count. He had a dominant July in which he slashed .395/.480/.953 with a whopping 1.433 OPS.
What to expect from here: Kurtz has the fifth-best bat speed in the league, so he’s a legitimate All-Star-level player, but I expect his 1.012 OPS to come down a bit, as he has been quite lucky on ball-in-play outcomes. — McDaniel
35. Joe Ryan, SP, Minnesota Twins
What he has already done so far: Contenders looking for a starting pitcher really hoped that the Twins would consider swapping the right-hander in July. But even during a massive makeover, Minnesota kept Ryan, who has become one of the most reliable starters in the game with a sub-3.00 ERA and a sturdy six innings just about every start.
What to expect from here: Ryan will have four-plus years of service time after this season, so unless the Twins’ ownership gives him a long-term deal, you’ll see his name in trade rumors again this winter and next summer. And, once again, you will hear about contenders pestering his team for the chance to sign him. — Olney
What he has done so far: Seager ranks second among qualified shortstops with a .359 wOBA, and his 17 home runs ranks in the top 10 for shortstops despite missing 33 games, mostly because of a hamstring injury in May. The Rangers have struggled on offense, with Seager their lone hitter with an OPS better than .727 (he’s at .847).
What to expect from here: Seager must finish strong to reach 30 home runs for the fourth consecutive season (despite averaging only 131 games the first three years), which is possible, as he enjoyed several double-digit home run months in 2024. The two-time World Series MVP (once with the Rangers in 2023) can thrive again and carry this beleaguered offense back to October. — Karabell
What he has done so far: Suarez is a throwback slugger, a guy whose best skill is his ability to regularly hit baseballs really hard. He’s not much of a defender at third base and can’t really run, so he just hits home runs, which is a pretty good consolation prize. He has 37 this season and is now back with Seattle, which, at one time, sent him to the Diamondbacks. The Mariners got him back at the trade deadline to bat behind the dominant top of their lineup, which will allow Suarez to find one of his hot streaks and use it to carry the team.
What to expect from here: Even at his best, Suarez hasn’t been anyone’s idea of a consistent hitter. He can lapse into deep funks and emerge as a world-beater. That’s how the swing works for mashers like Suarez. He doesn’t walk, and he strikes out too much. Almost nobody swings and misses more. But when he’s seeing the ball well and the swing is right, it’s majestic, the kind of swing that, from the No. 5 hole, can drive in a lot of baserunners. That is why the Mariners traded for Suarez: He is one of the best at the most important thing to do in the game. — Passan
What he has done so far: Mr. Consistency is on track for a typical Logan Webb season, which means making every start and perhaps leading the NL in innings for the third straight season. Though his ERA is right in line with his career numbers, he has significantly increased his strikeout rate. Signed for three more seasons, he remains the anchor of not just the pitching staff, but the team. That contract looks like one of the best deals in the game.
What to expect from here: The Giants’ playoff hopes are slim, but they’ll have to depend on Webb and Robbie Ray and hope somebody else in the rotation steps up to have any chance of getting in. Webb had a couple of bad starts in July, twice giving up six runs, before reeling off back-to-back strong starts against the Pirates. He then gave up four runs against the Padres. So, let’s see what continues to happen against better lineups. — Schoenfield
What he has done so far: At age 35, Eovaldi is enjoying the most outstanding season of his 15-year MLB career. He has 4.0 WAR, and if not for his monthlong stint on the IL in June, he’d have the requisite innings to lead the majors in ERA. Before giving up five runs to the Diamondbacks on Monday, Eovaldi had a 0.47 ERA since the beginning of July, helping keep the Rangers within striking distance of a wild-card spot.
What to expect from here: If the Rangers are to rally their way back into the wild-card race, they’ll need Eovaldi and his filthy splitter to remain healthy to form one of baseball’s best one-two starter duos alongside Jacob deGrom. Eovaldi’s ratios are sure to regress, considering he has the sixth-widest ERA/FIP divide among pitchers who have worked at least as many innings as him, but he should remain one of the league’s better — and most underrated — starters. — Cockcroft
What he has done so far: Through the season’s first two months, Freeman performed like one of the best players in the game. For most of the next two months, he lost his swing, displayed no power and navigated through a prodigious slump. Now, he’s back to hitting. The key, Freeman said, was getting into his front side. At this rate, despite the roller coaster, his numbers will look about as good as they always do.
What to expect from here: Freeman is in his age-35 season, with the DH spot unavailable to him on the Dodgers. He also hates taking days off. So, the Dodgers will hope Freeman can hold up over the stretch run. They need him at his best in October, but also, they need his best now. The Dodgers are in a tight division race. And they need Freeman to continue to hit like he has in August (.361 batting average and three home runs in the first 10 games), not like he did in July (.253 batting average and one home run in 24 games). — Gonzalez
41. Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
What he has done so far: After starting nine games over his first two Rangers seasons from 2023 to 2024, deGrom has made 23 starts in 2025, his most since 2019. Perhaps reducing his fastball velocity (to 97.5 mph) and strikeout rate has allowed him to stay healthy. He is among the top pitchers in the majors with 10 wins, a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, but he has thrown 100 pitches in a start only once.
What to expect from here: Texas leads MLB in rotation ERA, and a healthy deGrom is critical to team success. The Rangers are aware of the durability issues, and the 37-year-old has thrown 100 pitches in a start only once, in May. — Karabell
42. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
What he has done so far: Playing on a two-year contract with an opt-out after this season, Alonso has rebounded significantly at the plate, with his 146 OPS+ tied for his second-best single-season number and his 93 RBIs the third most in baseball. Statcast reflects a significant jump in his contact quality, as his barrel and hard hit rates, as well as his average exit velocity, are personal bests.
What to expect from here: As should be expected from a three true outcomes-style slugger, Alonso’s 2025 has been streaky. He registered a .920-plus OPS in April, June and August; his OPS dipped below .700 in May and July. Which version of Alonso the Mets get from this point on will determine whether they win the NL East or advance to October as a wild card, but either way, he’s aligning himself nicely for another crack at a free agent payday this winter. — Cockcroft
43. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
What he has done so far: For a month, Bichette’s 2024 slump seemed to carry over. Then, it didn’t. He didn’t homer until May 3, but he has hit 16 since then in returning to his pre-2024 form. His days as a 20-plus-steals guy appear to be over, but his aggressive, bat-on-ball approach has Bichette on track to lead the AL in hits for the third time and pushed his average back over .300.
What to expect from here: A soft MVP push? Bichette won’t win, but the deeper we get into the season, the hotter he seems to get — and he’s doing this for a Blue Jays team in great position to win the AL East. After a robust .941 OPS in June, Bichette is at 1.094 in August. What will September look like? — Doolittle
What he has done so far: Perdomo was long admired as a prospect because of his well-rounded skill set that lacked only power. This season has been his breakout, as his in-game power has ticked up to fringe-average while the rest of his profile is above average-to-plus — the makings of a perennial All-Star.
What to expect from here: He’s already at 3.7 WAR — the highest total of his five-year career. I think this season might look like a career year going forward, but I’d expect 3- or 4-win seasons soon. — McDaniel
What he has done so far: The 22-year-old made the All-Star team in his first full season in the majors and arguably deserved to start after hitting .278/.381/.534 at the break with 24 home runs. It looked like he might get to 40 home runs, but the strikeouts have piled up in big numbers since then, and Wood has been one of the worst hitters in the majors the past three weeks.
What to expect from here: Can he make the necessary adjustments to get back on track? He has above-average plate discipline with a 66th percentile chase rate, so that helps, and he has crushed fastballs. But he has struggled big time against breaking balls and off-speed pitches, hitting under .200 against those offerings. These are typical issues for a young player, and he has time to figure things out and return to being one of the most exciting hitters in the game. — Schoenfield
46. George Springer, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
What he has done so far: Springer’s OPS progression for his first four seasons with Toronto went .907, .814, .732 and .674, the last of those declining figures coming in his age-34 season in 2024. If you thought Springer’s best days were behind him, you would have been justified. Instead, he has enjoyed a resurgent campaign, pushing his OPS near .900 and matching his counting numbers for last season by early August.
What to expect from here: Whatever Springer figured out, his game has truly turned back the clock. While keeping his strikeout rate steady, he has increased his walk rate by a third while somehow coaxing another 2.5 mph out of his average exit velocity. His increasing tendency to hit too many balls on the ground has vanished, and he’s getting the ball in the air as much as ever. Meet the new Springer … who looks like vintage Springer. — Doolittle
What he has done so far: Boyd’s first full season after Tommy John surgery in 2023 has gone superbly, as he has won a career-best 11 games, has an ERA (2.45) more than two runs below his career number (4.53) and made his first All-Star team. He only seems to be getting better, with five scoreless starts of at least five innings in his past eight outings, during which his fastball has averaged an elevated 93.5 mph.
What to expect from here: It remains to be seen how Boyd will hold up, considering he didn’t exceed 88 professional innings in any of the previous five seasons, though he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Nevertheless, the Cubs are considering moving to a six-man rotation once Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad return, helping lighten the load on Boyd, who is a critical part of their quest to advance deep into October. — Cockcroft
What he has done so far: The heights of his 2019 NL MVP season are likely in the rearview for good, but Bellinger has remade himself as a hitter with an above-average contact rate and in-game power. He has the third-best batting average of the Yankees’ regular starters and has 20 home runs and 66 RBIs.
What to expect from here: He’s now 30 years old and playing mostly corner outfield, on pace for a 4-win season. Given his age and trajectory, I wouldn’t expect him to move up this list or eclipse 4.0 WAR again, but I think he has multiple years left as an above-average regular. — McDaniel
What he has already done so far: In his first foray into free agency, Bregman bet heavily on himself by taking what is effectively a one-year deal with the Red Sox because he can opt out after this season. And that bet figures to pay off this winter, with Bregman generating his highest slugging percentage (.541) since 2019 and his highest batting average ever; he could hit .300 for the first time in his career.
What to expect from here: He’s 31 years old and there are no signs that his peak years are waning, so it figures that Bregman will see significant offers again this winter. The Red Sox have loved having him, and you’d assume there will be conversations about a long-term deal, but he continues to be a really nice potential fit on paper for the Tigers, as well. — Olney
50. Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
What he has done so far: Chapman is enjoying another typical season for him, with above-average offense (thanks to his power and walk rate) and excellent third base defense. He missed most of June because of a hand injury, but then he produced a reasonable .739 OPS in July.
What to expect from here: Chapman might still play in 140 games for the seventh consecutive full season, reach 27 home runs for the fifth time and earn his third consecutive Gold Glove (and sixth overall). He produced an .888 OPS last September. He can do it again for a franchise seeking its first postseason berth since 2021. — Karabell
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