Let’s be clear: We are not burying the Baltimore Orioles just yet. The season is young, and there is plenty of time for them to heat up and get back into the playoff race. It’s not like any team has pulled away in the American League East, and the six-team playoff field in each league makes it that much easier to squeeze into the postseason anyway.

Still, the Orioles are supposed to be at their height of contention, fighting for best-team-in-baseball status, not battling the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels for the worst record in the AL, as is currently the case.

The Orioles had ESPN’s top-ranked farm system in 2022 and 2023 and parlayed that into an impressive 101-win season and division title in 2023. They again had the top-ranked farm system entering 2024, and while last year’s 91-win season was a minor letdown, it at least resulted in another trip to the playoffs. In each of those years, they had the top overall prospect: Adley Rutschman (2022), Gunnar Henderson (2023) and Jackson Holliday (2024). Entering the 2025 campaign, their farm system dropped to No. 14 since a lot of their top prospects have now graduated to the majors.

Baltimore also had another reason for optimism in new owner David Rubenstein, a Baltimore native and avowed Orioles fan who is worth an estimated $3.7 billion. Fans hoped he might pull the team into a higher payroll class as the franchise chased its first World Series appearance and championship since 1983.

Instead, the Orioles are 13-21, with a rotation that ranks last in the AL in with a 5.75 ERA, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins overall, and an offense that’s tied for 21st in the majors in OPS and ranks 23rd in runs per game. After averaging 4.98 runs per game in 2023 and 4.85 in 2024, the O’s are averaging just 3.82 in 2025 (even after the left-field fence was moved back at Camden Yards). One game in late April featured a lineup with Ramon Laureano hitting leadoff, Ramon Urias batting cleanup and Gary Sanchez and Dylan Carlson hitting fifth and sixth. That was not how this was supposed to look.

What has happened here? Would it be unusual for a team to be where the Orioles were and suddenly fall apart? To investigate this, we found teams that matched where the Orioles stood entering 2024 — coming off a playoff season while also possessing a top farm system the following spring. That would seem to be the perfect storm for a highly competitive contention window: a good team with more young talent on the way.

Going back to 2000, we found all the teams that (1) had made the playoffs and (2) began the next season with a top-three-ranked farm system, according to either Baseball America (since 2001) or ESPN (since 2012). Including the 2023 Orioles, this provided a list of 25 teams. We then tracked each team’s performance over the next three seasons; for the 2023 Orioles, this would so far include only the 2024 season.

Here are those 25 teams, as well as their records the following three seasons:

Our overall findings: Not only did these teams fare exceptionally well, they rarely were bad — and often were great.

Out of 71 future seasons that have been completed in each team’s immediate three-year window, these teams made the playoffs 48 times — 68% of the time, including the Orioles in 2024. Those odds have been even higher in recent seasons with the expanded playoff field; the first three teams on the list — the 2000 White Sox, 2001 Seattle Mariners and 2001 Houston Astros — made just one playoff appearance out of nine seasons between them.

There were only eight losing seasons out of 71. Leaving aside 2020, 42 teams out of a possible 67 seasons won at least 90 games (63%), and 14 (21%) won at least 100.

Let’s dig deeper and compare the 2023 Orioles — and their ensuing three-year contention window — more specifically to the five teams in our study that had a No. 1-ranked farm system.

Top five prospects in 2001: Jon Rauch, Joe Borchard, Joe Crede, Matt Ginter, Dan Wright
Others of note: Aaron Rowand
Next three seasons: 83-79, 81-81, 86-76 (no playoff appearances)

This is an interesting team because another element of the perfect storm for contention would be the younger the playoff team, the better. Combining the average age of the position player group and the pitchers from Baseball-Reference (which adjusts those figures for playing time), the White Sox were the second-youngest team on the list, behind only the 2022 Cleveland Guardians. And yet, Chicago scuffled along the next three seasons — and got very little from that prospect group.

The White Sox did break through in 2005, however, winning the World Series, with Crede and Rowand both starters on that team. Rauch got injured but was traded for Carl Everett, another starter on the 2005 team.

How the Orioles compare: The 2023 Orioles were one of the younger teams on the list, tied for fifth youngest. This was a large part of the optimism around them, especially with those three top overall prospects providing the foundation. The Orioles were always thinner on pitching prospects, however, and that’s been a problem in 2025 as injuries in the rotation have piled up.

Of course, the expectation this past winter was that Rubenstein and general manager Mike Elias might go after a top starting pitcher — similar to the previous offseason, when Elias traded two prospects for a legitimate ace in Corbin Burnes. The Orioles then acquired Zach Eflin during the season. But Burnes was just a one-year rental and signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, while Eflin is currently sidelined with a lat strain. Young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been out all season with an elbow issue, and Kyle Bradish, the team’s top starter in 2023, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The problem hasn’t just been the injuries but the stopgaps: 41-year-old Charlie Morton is 0-6 with a 9.76 ERA, 37-year-old Kyle Gibson is 0-1 with a 14.09 ERA in two starts and Cade Povich is 1-2 with a 5.16 ERA.

Top five prospects in 2013: Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Kolten Wong
Others of note: Michael Wacha, Tommy Pham
Next three seasons: 97-65, 90-72, 100-62 (three playoff appearances)

The Cardinals reached the World Series in 2013 (losing to the Boston Red Sox) and had the best record in the National League in 2015 before losing to the Chicago Cubs in the division series. The group of prospects helped supplement what had been more of a veteran team in 2012. Miller joined the rotation in 2013 and won 25 games in two seasons then was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Jason Heyward. Martinez spent a year in the bullpen and became an All-Star starter in 2015 and 2017. Rosenthal racked up 93 saves in 2014-15. Wong was a solid regular, and Wacha was the playoff hero in 2013. Taveras, the star prospect of the group, died in a car accident after the 2014 season.

How the Orioles compare: The Cardinals were built from 2012 to 2015 around their starting rotation — Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Wacha, Miller and Martinez. When Wainwright got hurt in 2015, they still had the depth to pick up the slack. They traded for John Lackey, and he went 13-10 with 5.8 WAR and a 2.77 ERA in 2015. Miller was used to acquire Heyward, who posted 7.0 WAR in 2015 (although then left as a free agent).

In other words, it was a completely different philosophy than the one Baltimore is using. The Cardinals believed they could fill in the gaps on the position player side of things — and they did do that through 2015. (Although once Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday declined, they missed the playoffs for three straight years starting in 2016.)

The Orioles are following the lead of the Cubs and Astros, who built World Series winners in 2016 and 2017 around a core of position players. The Cubs supplemented that group with free agent signings Jon Lester and Lackey plus two astute trades for Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks. The Astros traded for Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke to help build their dynasty.

Elias was part of that Houston front office, and while the Burnes trade worked out for his one season in Baltimore and Eflin pitched well last season after the trade (2.60 ERA in nine starts), it’s fair to say Elias hasn’t landed a starter with the multiyear impact of a Lester, Hendricks, Verlander or Cole.

Top five prospects in 2014: Gregory Polanco, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Nick Kingham
Others of note: Josh Bell, Clay Holmes, Adam Frazier
Next three seasons: 88-74, 98-64, 78-84 (two playoff appearances)

The Pirates had a strong three-year window from 2013 to 2015 with three straight postseason trips, but they have had just one winning season since. It wasn’t so much the lack of willingness to spend on payroll but a series of bad trades and prospects who didn’t pan out. Polanco just wasn’t that good. They traded Gerrit Cole and didn’t get enough in return. They traded Glasnow, Meadows and Shane Baz to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ill-fated 2018 Chris Archer trade.

How the Orioles compare: We’re still finding out if this will be the case with some of these Orioles prospects. But the other thing that happened to the Pirates is Andrew McCutchen — their superstar during those three playoff seasons (he averaged 6.4 WAR and was the MVP winner in 2013) — didn’t keep it going. He fell to minus-0.4 WAR in 2016 and 3.1 WAR in 2017 then was traded in 2018. Starling Marte averaged 4.8 WAR during the playoff run but had a performance-enhancing drugs suspension in 2017 and wasn’t as good when he returned. Even Cole was worth just 1.5 WAR in 2016 and 2.6 in 2017 before exploding after his trade to Houston.

In other words, the Orioles need their stars to perform, and Henderson and Rutschman have just not done that so far in 2025. Henderson has just five RBIs in 27 games, and Rutschman is hitting .211/.318/.351. Jordan Westburg, an All-Star in 2024, is hitting .217/.265/.391 and is currently on the IL with a hamstring strain. Colton Cowser, last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up, played just four games before fracturing his left thumb.

If anything, this is why we probably don’t want to give up on the Orioles: They’ve gotten so little from a group that should be doing a lot more. (And those players are younger than McCutchen and Marte were, so there’s no reason they should collectively be performing this poorly.)

Top five prospects in 2016: Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Jose De Leon, Jose Peraza, Cody Bellinger
Others of note: Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler
Next three seasons: 91-71, 104-58, 106-56 (three playoff appearances)

The 2015 Dodgers were built around Clayton Kershaw and Greinke, who went a combined 35-10 with a 1.90 ERA. Their best position players were 33-year-old Adrian Gonzalez and 30-year-old Justin Turner. While they didn’t win a World Series in the next three years, they did still reach the Fall Classic twice in that span — and went on to eventually win the Series in the shortened 2020 season, with Seager, Urias, Bellinger and Buehler all playing vital roles (while Verdugo became the key player in the trade for Mookie Betts).

How the Orioles compare: The 2023 Orioles were a much younger team than the 2015 Dodgers. (Most of L.A.’s regular position players were 30-something; they had the oldest group of position players in the NL that year.) So, there isn’t much in common here. Yes, the Orioles have their version of Seager in Henderson, but do they have a Bellinger in the pipeline? Can Bradish and Rodriguez bounce back from injuries and help win a World Series, as Urias and Buehler eventually did? The Dodgers used their farm system depth to eventually trade for Betts then signed him to a long-term contract. While the Orioles have shown their willingness to make an impact trade (Burnes), they of course have shown no inclination to spend that kind of money.

The Dodgers also have been able to keep the prospects coming: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the Dodgers as the No. 1 farm system entering 2025, a remarkable assessment given where they draft every year. Even when the Orioles’ farm system ranked first in 2024, it was more about the quality at the top — Holliday, Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo and Heston Kjerstad leading the way — than the overall depth.

Top five prospects in 2020: Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, Vidal Brujan, Shane Baz
Others of note: Shane McClanahan, Xavier Edwards, Joe Ryan, Josh Lowe, Taj Bradley, Pete Fairbanks
Next three seasons: 40-20, 100-62, 86-76 (three playoff appearances)

The Rays reached the World Series in 2020, had another great season in 2021, earned a wild-card spot in 2022, returned to the playoffs with 99 wins in 2023 and finally stumbled in 2024, finishing 80-82. The 2019 Rays were a young team, tied for third youngest on our list. While that top group of prospects didn’t do much with Tampa — only Baz is still active with the organization — the Rays had so much depth in their system that they still managed to extract a lot of value. (Although they probably would like a do-over on the Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz trade in 2021.)

How the Orioles compare: The 2019 Rays would be the best direct match for the 2023 Orioles in terms of youth and roster composition and timeline. Those Rays were the culmination of a multiyear rebuilding project, just like the 2023 Orioles. Tampa Bay made five consecutive playoff appearances, the kind of results you would expect from a young team with a highly rated farm system. (And the results might have been even better if not for Franco’s off-field problems.)

One thing the Rays are not afraid to do: trade their prospects. Liberatore went to the Cardinals for Randy Arozarena; Edwards went to the Marlins for Santiago Suarez, an intriguing pitching prospect now in High-A; and Brujan brought back Jake Mangum, who is contributing to the Rays in 2025. Not all their trades have worked out, but many have.

So far, the Orioles have mostly held on to their guys. The Trevor Rogers trade with the Marlins last summer doesn’t look good right now. Rogers was bad after the trade, and he is now injured, while Kyle Stowers might be having a breakout season for Miami. Kjerstad is struggling for the Orioles, and Mayo just got called back up after going 4-for-41 with 22 strikeouts in a big league trial last year. There’s a chance neither of those two develop as they were once expected to.

Given the mostly successful track records of the teams in the study, is there a worst-case scenario for the Orioles? Here are three examples.

Farm system ranking: No. 2
Top five prospects: Ryan Anderson, Rafael Soriano, Antonio Perez, Chris Snelling, Clint Nageotte

What went wrong: The Mariners won 93 games in each of the next two seasons, although they missed the playoffs back when just four teams made it. They then collapsed to 63-99 in 2004. They were the oldest team in our study, with an average age of 31.1. So, that group aged out after a couple of years, and the prospects didn’t develop — and nearly 20 years of bad baseball ensued. Anderson, nicknamed “The Little Unit” due to his physical resemblance to Randy Johnson, got hurt and never made the majors. Soriano had three 40-save seasons — long after the Mariners traded him away. Snelling was a promising Australian outfielder who reached the majors at age 20 but couldn’t stay healthy. The Mariners also had Shin-Soo Choo in the system and traded him away for nothing.

What the Orioles can learn: The Mariners aren’t a great comparison since they were such a veteran team, but bad trades certainly didn’t help. Carlos Guillen, the starting shortstop in 2001, was traded after 2003 to the Tigers for light-hitting Ramon Santiago and went on to become a three-time All-Star with Detroit. When the Mariners faded in 2004, they traded ace Freddy Garcia to the White Sox with minimal return. Asdrubal Cabrera signed as an amateur free agent with Seattle in 2002 and was later traded away to Cleveland, where he made a couple of All-Star teams.

Moral of the story: You have to trade well. The Orioles did that in 2002, when they acquired Povich and Yennier Cano for Jorge Lopez, but they’ll need more of those wins.

Farm system ranking: No. 2
Top five prospects: Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, Mike Olt, Leonys Martin, Neil Ramirez

What went wrong: After losing in the 2011 World Series, the Rangers did return to the playoffs in 2012 but then lost a tiebreaker game to miss the playoffs in 2013. They fell to 67-95 in 2014 before making a couple of soft playoff appearances in 2015 and 2016. So, this was hardly a full-scale disaster, although they’ve had just one winning season since 2016; that was in 2023, and it happened to result in a World Series title.

This was a case where the prospects just weren’t as good as advertised. Profar was the No. 1 prospect in the game, but shoulder injuries derailed his career. Perez is still pitching, but he didn’t become a big star. Olt was a power-hitting third baseman traded with Ramirez to the Cubs in 2013 for Matt Garza, a rental pitcher. The Rangers also dealt Hendricks to the Cubs for another rental in Ryan Dempster, while Martin, Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara never had the plate discipline to become consistent hitters in the majors.

What the Orioles can learn: Don’t overrate your own prospects — or at least make sure you evaluate them accurately. The Rangers let productive veterans such as Cruz, C.J. Wilson and Mike Napoli (plus Josh Hamilton, although his career flamed out after moving on from the Rangers) leave in free agency because they believed they had prospects ready to step in . They traded Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder with the idea that Profar could take over at second, but that turned into a tough trade when Fielder had to retire due to a neck injury. They also had some bad injury luck in the rotation with Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando all getting hurt.

The Orioles will be facing a lot of similar types of decisions this offseason, with a large chunk of the roster headed to free agency, including Cedric Mullins, Eflin, Ryan O’Hearn and Gregory Soto, plus several other players on one-year deals. The owner’s checkbook might need to play a bigger role next offseason.

Farm system ranking: No. 2 Baseball America/No. 5 ESPN
Top five prospects: Xander Bogaerts, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Webster, Blake Swihart
Others in the system: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez, Matt Barnes, Manuel Margot, Brock Holt (and a bunch of others who made the playoffs)

What went wrong: This isn’t even a worst-case scenario, necessarily, although the Red Sox were the only team on our list to have two losing seasons out of the next three. (The 2022 Guardians could match that with a losing record in 2025.) Boston won the World Series with an older team in 2013 but was under .500 in 2014 and 2015. Eventually, the farm system produced another World Series title in 2018.

What the Orioles can learn: The 2013 Red Sox had David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and some other vets who had big years. By 2018, Ortiz was retired and Pedroia was injured. But Boston had come up with new stars: Betts, Bogaerts and Chris Sale (acquired for prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech). The Red Sox supplemented the new stars with two big free agents, David Price and J.D. Martinez.

The Orioles have so far failed to either extend any of their young stars or play with the big boys in free agency. They still have their main core under team control for years to come. (Rutschman would be the first to reach free agency, after the 2027 season.) But it does feel like, at some point, the Orioles might have to be more aggressive than they’ve been — unless they can figure out how to thread the needle like the Rays have done throughout the years.

All in all, the Orioles haven’t really done anything “wrong” yet — unless you count not signing a big free agent pitcher. But if you look at the most successful long-term organizations in the study, they didn’t do that, either. The Astros made trades for pitchers. The 2014 and 2015 Dodgers each refrained from signing any nine-figure pitchers until the 2023-24 offseason, when they signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and traded for Tyler Glasnow. The Braves appear on this list in 2018 and 2019, the first two years of seven consecutive playoff trips, and they haven’t signed any big pitchers, either, even losing Max Fried in free agency this past winter. The Rays, of course, don’t venture into free agency at a high price point.

Now those latter three organizations are known for their pitching development. The Orioles’ initial success has been fueled primarily by their hitting development, although even that’s a little unfair, as Bradish and Rodriguez (two pitchers who came up through their system) were good until their injuries. But it seems fair to suggest that Baltimore will need some further development from pitchers such as Povich or Chayce McDermott, let alone better returns from Bradish and Rodriguez.

The final conclusion here: It would be pretty unprecedented for the Orioles to suddenly fall apart given their youth, their level of success in 2023 and 2024 and the evaluation of those prospects just reaching the majors or still in the pipeline. Of course, sometimes those evaluations are wrong. They have a lot of pitching injuries to overcome, and that’s tough for any team, unless you’re named the Dodgers. The unwillingness to spend bigger this past offseason certainly looms as a dark cloud over this bad start.

But that’s all it likely is: a bad start. For now.