Five early-season MLB surprises — and why they’re happening
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Alden Gonzalez
We’re six weeks into the 2025 MLB season, long enough to gather some meaningful intel but short enough to wonder how much of it actually matters.
Pete Alonso has gone from unwanted free agent to MVP front-runner, only one team in the typically mighty American League East boasts a winning record, and some of the game’s best closers — Devin Williams, Alexis Díaz, Ryan Pressly and Emmanuel Clase, in particular — are suddenly not.
Those are just a few of the notable surprises through the first 23% or so of this season. Below are five others, and the reasons behind them.
Spencer Torkelson is suddenly hitting like a No. 1 pick
Spencer Torkelson was the Detroit Tigers’ No. 1 draft pick out of Arizona State University in 2020, billed as a can’t-miss bat. The 2024 season was supposed to be the stage for his breakout. Instead, he found himself back in the minor leagues.
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch texted Torkelson almost daily after the team sent him down to Triple-A in June. At one point, the two even met up for breakfast. Hinch wanted to assure Torkelson that the Tigers were thinking about him and still valued him. But what Torkelson might have needed most, some of those around him believe, was to see the team succeed without him. He needed the urgency to change.
“Coming out of college, I felt like I had it figured out, was the greatest hitter ever,” Torkelson said. “And I got humbled.”
Torkelson struggled so profoundly last year — a .669 OPS, 10 homers and 105 strikeouts in 92 games — that he entered 2025 without a clear path for playing time. Now, early in his age-25 season, he looks like the feared hitter so many expected to see. Through 36 games, Torkelson has already equaled last year’s home run total. He’s drawing walks at a significantly higher rate, OPS’ing .879 and ranking within the top 5% in expected slugging percentage — a stat in which he finished 211th among 252 hitters last year.
Torkelson entered this season with a 361-game sample of inconsistency, but scouts don’t see his sudden success as an early-season fluke — they see it as the result of an elite hitter making consequential adjustments.
Torkelson is more athletic and in rhythm in his stance this year, whereas previously he looked “statuesque,” in the words of one Tigers source. He has more bend in his knees, plants his feet closer together and has implemented a slight crouch. But it’s not really a change. It’s how he hit right up until the time he reached the majors.
“You watch any swing in my entire life,” Torkelson said, “I kinda look exactly the way I look right now.”
The taller stance Torkelson fell into at the big league level was what he described as “a Band-Aid.” The high fastball gave him trouble early on, so Torkelson did what felt obvious: make that high fastball seem less high.
“And it worked,” Torkelson said. “I got away with it. I hit 31 homers and I didn’t even feel that great.”
But those 31 home runs, accumulated in his second year in 2023, masked other deficiencies that showed up the following summer. Torkelson slashed just .205/.271/.337 through the end of May in 2024. Shortly after, he was sent back to Triple-A for what became an 11-week stint. He returned in mid-August, produced a more respectable .781 OPS over his last 38 regular-season games, then went into the offseason vowing to hit the way he used to. He took a lesson from studying one of his favorite hitters, Mike Trout, who has built a Hall of Fame career despite struggling against the high fastball.
“We don’t get paid to hammer the high fastball,” Torkelson said. “We get paid to hammer the mistakes.”
The Tigers signed veteran second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year, $15 million deal in late December, then announced Colt Keith would move to first base. Torkelson came into spring training having to fight just to get at-bats at designated hitter.
Then everything changed. Torkelson hit his way into a starting role at first base in 31 of the Tigers’ 36 games. His production — along with that of Javier Baez, who has produced an .827 OPS while transitioning to center field — has given the Tigers some much-needed right-handed power and helped them climb to the top of the AL Central.
“I’m seeing the ball better, and I feel dangerous at the plate,” Torkelson said. “As a hitter, that’s all you can ask for. You’re not going to hit 1.000. But when you’re feeling dangerous and you’re seeing the ball well, you feel like you can’t be beat. You’re going to get beat, but it gives you the best shot.”
The Angels’ lineup is trending toward the worst type of history
Last year, the lowly offenses of the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox posted two of the 12 worst walk-to-strikeout ratios in major league history. Now the Los Angeles Angels, who entered 2025 with hopes of finally being competitive again, are making an early run at the all-time mark.
The Angels’ offense has accumulated 81 walks through its first 35 games this season, the lowest total in the majors. Their hitters have struck out 338 times (third most). Before tying their season high with six walks in a walk-off win on Wednesday night, their 0.23 walk-to-strikeout rate was on pace to be the worst in baseball history. It has since improved to a mere 0.24, tied with the 2019 White Sox for the lowest ever.
It’s probably not surprising to learn that the full-season bottom 10 in that category has taken place over the past dozen years, at a time when hitters strike out more often than ever. It’s probably also not surprising to learn that seven of those 10 teams lost at least 100 games.
The Angels’ offense has been that bad. Since putting up 11 runs at the spring training facility where the Tampa Bay Rays play on April 10, they rank 29th in batting average, 27th in slugging percentage, and last in each of the following categories: on-base percentage, strikeout rate, walk rate and runs per game.
And though there’s still plenty of time to turn this around, it’s hard to envision how that historically low walk-to-strikeout rate — an important barometer of success on both sides — significantly improves. (Their pitching strikeout-to-walk rate, ranked 27th at 1.90, isn’t much better.)
On Tuesday, the Angels were happy to welcome back Yoan Moncada, who is capable of drawing walks but also strikes out at an exceedingly high rate. A return from Mike Trout, whose latest knee injury is not considered serious, would certainly help, though he reached base at only a .264 clip during his first 29 games. Taylor Ward, meanwhile, is much better than a .180/.225/.376 hitter.
But then there’s Jo Adell, whose career .639 OPS ranks 100th among the 114 players in Angels history with at least 1,000 plate appearances. And Logan O’Hoppe, who had the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors last year. And Jorge Soler, a prodigious power hitter who naturally carries a lot of swing-and-miss. And, notably, Kyren Paris, who looked like a breakout star early on but lately looks overmatched; since a two-hit game put his OPS at 1.514 on April 11, Paris has eight hits, three walks and 32 strikeouts in 66 plate appearances.
The Angels’ coaches have been trying to emphasize a two-strike approach with their hitters, but there’s only so much they can do.
“When you’ve got guys that’s capable of hitting the ball out the ballpark, it’s hard to tell them to cut their swing down because they don’t know what that is,” Angels manager Ron Washington said. “And when you’ve got guys in the lineup that don’t have a lot of experience and you say, ‘Cut the swing down,’ they don’t know what that is. There’s a lot of baseball to be gathered around here, man.”
Washington paused for a moment and smiled. Before being hired by the Angels in November 2023, Washington spent seven years as the third-base coach and infield instructor on Atlanta Braves teams brimming with veteran, championship-caliber players. This Angels team is not that. It’s young and inexperienced, and Washington has to remind himself of that constantly.
He is a teacher at heart, and often that requires patience. His is being tested like never before.
The Brewers’ injury-riddled rotation has somehow found a way
Three Milwaukee Brewers starting pitchers — DL Hall, Tobias Myers and Aaron Ashby — landed on the injured list with soft-tissue injuries during spring training. Two more, Aaron Civale and Nestor Cortes, went on the shelf within the regular season’s first week. By that point, the list of starting pitchers on the IL stretched to seven. And yet, in the most Brewers way possible, their rotation followed with a miraculous run.
From April 6-22, the foursome of Freddy Peralta, Chad Patrick, Jose Quintana and Quinn Priester combined for a 1.55 ERA over 63⅔ innings. The Brewers began the season by allowing 47 runs in 33 innings, but since then, their starting rotation boasts the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.08.
Peralta is a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter, but Quintana is a 36-year-old who signed for a mere $4 million in March; Priester is a failed first-round pick acquired in a minor trade early last month; and Patrick is a 26-year-old rookie who wasn’t on anybody’s radar when the season began.
But the Brewers have built a reputation for employing pitchers who overachieve. Because they can’t afford the high-ceiling arms who cost a fortune in free agency, they hammer their depth to raise their floor as much as possible. And to do so, they apply a simple concept: develop and acquire pitchers who fit their environment. More specifically, pitchers who benefit most from a strong infield defense.
Quintana, who can throw his sinker with more conviction with better defense behind him, posted a 1.14 ERA in his first four starts before allowing six runs to the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. Patrick, who boasts an elite cutter with two different shapes, has a 3.08 ERA in his first seven turns through the rotation. Priester, the 18th pick in 2019, had a 6.23 ERA in 99⅔ major league innings heading into 2025. But the Brewers were intrigued by a minor league track record in which he had roughly average strikeout and walk rates and kept more than half the batted balls against him on the ground. Priester maintained a 1.93 ERA through his first three starts before allowing 12 runs over his next 9⅓ innings.
That rough patch aside, Priester helped stabilize a Brewers rotation that was in dire straits when the season began. A key reinforcement could come by the end of this week, when Brandon Woodruff makes his long-awaited return from shoulder surgery. Woodruff has been fully healthy, pitching without restrictions, but his velocity has been down, his fastball sitting in the 92- to 94-mph range as opposed to the upper-90s heat he featured while pitching like an ace. When Woodruff returns, he might have to pitch differently.
The Brewers will probably figure it out.
The next hitting star on the Rays is actually … Jonathan Aranda?
The Tampa Bay Rays exceeded their international bonus pool in 2014, restricting them to signing players for no more than $300,000 over the next two years. And yet, leading up to the 2015 signing period, assistant general manager Carlos Rodríguez and then-international scouting supervisor Eddie Díaz traveled to Tijuana, Mexico, to watch a Cuban outfielder they could not afford: Randy Arozarena.
The trip proved to be beneficial years later, when the Rays acquired Arozarena from the St. Louis Cardinals and helped him become a star. But it was beneficial for another reason: It helped them discover Jonathan Aranda.
Rodríguez, at that time the director of Latin American scouting, asked Díaz to line up other prospects to see during the trip. Aranda was in that group and caught their eye. The Rays signed him for $130,000 in July 2015. Ten years later, they’re watching him blossom.
Aranda, a 26-year-old left-handed hitter, ranks third with 182 weighted runs created plus this season, behind only Aaron Judge and Alonso. He’s slashing .317/.417/.554 with 14 extra-base hits. And so far, at least, he’s stealing the spotlight from Junior Caminero, widely hailed as the Rays’ next hitting phenom. It’s easy to be skeptical — Aranda’s .971 OPS is 279 points higher than his career mark in 110 games going into 2025 — but those who know him best are adamant that this is real.
Aranda has always been an elite hitter. The question was how the Rays would fit him into their major league roster. He came up as a shortstop at around the same time Wander Franco surged through the system. By the time he was on the cusp of the major leagues, the likes of Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Brandon Lowe and Ji-man Choi occupied the other infield positions.
At one point, the Rays had Aranda try catching in hopes of getting his bat to the big leagues quicker. They felt he might have the arm and the hands for it. Aranda went back to Mexico and caught a handful of bullpen sessions but decided against it. He expressed confidence that his bat would eventually be enough to reach the majors.
It looked like it would in 2024. Aranda slashed .371/.421/.571 in 13 Grapefruit League games that spring and was primed to crack the Opening Day roster. But then he broke his right ring finger fielding a grounder, missed about five weeks and struggled for most of the ensuing season. It prompted a stint in winter ball, where he made small mechanical tweaks that have helped him thrive in the early part of 2025.
But mostly, Rays officials believe, Aranda’s success stems from finally having a pathway for consistent playing time, largely as the stronger half of a DH platoon. His splits are quite drastic — 1.066 OPS against righties, three hits in 18 at-bats against lefties — but Aranda profiles as a 20-plus home run hitter who can rack up doubles and control the strike zone. It just took him a bit to get there.
Max Muncy suddenly can’t hit home runs
Max Muncy went 106 plate appearances before finally hitting his first home run of 2025 on the final day of April. It marked the longest single-season homerless streak of his career, easily topping the 80-plate-appearance rut from 2022, according to ESPN Research.
His biggest issue was one that plagues many left-handed hitters who throw right-handed.
“He gets out on his front side pretty quickly,” Dodgers hitting coach Aaron Bates explained. “Part of the challenge for him is when he needs to start his leg kick and how to maintain balance as he’s striding forward. Because he throws with his right hand and hits lefty, the right side of his body kind of dominates his swing moving toward the pitcher, which is pretty common for a lot of guys. You look at Corey Seager, he’s pretty balanced. But a lot of times, when you have a lefty-righty-combo guy, they get kind of pulled that way. So that’s something that he has to constantly battle, and he has his whole career. When he’s synced up and he’s right, it’s great. And when he’s out of whack, he’s got to work to get it right.”
Muncy spent the better part of the first month working to sync up his timing, specifically when he drives his momentum forward. Few major league hitters stay on their back side through their entire load, Aaron Judge being a notable exception. But for most of this season, Muncy was getting to his front side too early, which resulted in fouling off hittable fastballs and struggling against breaking pitches.
“When you don’t trust yourself as a hitter, you don’t wanna get beat, and so you get off your backside sooner,” Bates said. “So it’s like the chicken or the egg.”
When Muncy settled into the batter’s box in the second inning on April 30, 305 players had already homered in the major leagues this season. Muncy, with four 35-plus-homer seasons on his résumé, was not one of them. That day, he debuted prescription eyeglasses he had been testing out during pregame workouts to combat astigmatism in his right eye. The hope, Muncy told reporters, was that the glasses would make him less left-eye dominant.
But the biggest issue was a swing he had tweaked to produce low line drives instead of fly balls but wound up making him drift forward too early. Getting his weight shift back to normal proved to be a slow process. But to Bates, an encouraging sign arrived two days before Muncy’s first home run — when he stayed back on a sinker and dumped an opposite-field line drive into left-center.
Muncy has produced just the one home run — putting him in the same boat as Alec Bohm, Bo Bichette and Xander Bogaerts, and one ahead of Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham and Gabriel Moreno — and still doesn’t seem fully in sync. But he’s carrying a slightly more respectable .750 OPS since the start of that game on April 30. He’s drawing walks, displaying some power, and at some point, Bates believes, the home runs will come in bunches.
“It can be any at-bat,” Bates said, “he’s homering.”
Sports
Never-before-seen history? A battle of villains?! The best World Series matchup for every type of fan
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David Schoenfield
It’s still early in the postseason, but it’s never too soon to start to dream about some of the possible World Series matchups we could get later in October.
With eight teams left, there are 16 possible Fall Classic scenarios — a matchup for seemingly every type of fan to enjoy. Well, unless you were really hoping for that Colorado Rockies–Chicago White Sox or Pittsburgh Pirates–Los Angeles Angels World Series. If that’s the case, you probably need to rethink your dreams.
Here are eight of the most exciting potential matchups — one of which a majority of fans might strongly disagree with including. There is something for everyone, from history to star power to longstanding droughts. Let’s get to it.
If you like No. 1 seeds making it: Blue Jays vs. Brewers
The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers were together in the AL East from 1977 through 1993, when the Brewers moved to the AL Central (and then to the National League in 1998).
The only year they finished 1-2 was 1992, when the Blue Jays won the division title by four games. The Brewers went 15-2 at one stretch in September to close the gap to two games with two games left to play, but they lost both while the Blue Jays won theirs. The franchises have had a limited trade history, although former longtime Brewers general manager Doug Melvin (still a front office adviser for the club) is an Ontario native and member of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Paul Molitor, Lyle Overbay, Buck Martinez, Roy Howell, Matt Stairs
Combined years without a championship: 75
Why this would be fun: Both teams finished with the best record in their league — well, the Jays tied with the New York Yankees but won the tiebreaker to get the top seed — and since the wild-card era began in 1995, the nature of baseball’s postseason makes it rare for the top seeds to meet in the World Series. It has happened just five times:
If you’re a traditionalist and want the most deserving teams to make it, this is the matchup for you. Even if you’re not impressed with Toronto’s run differential (third best in the American League), the Jays have been excellent since late May. Since May 27, they had the second-best record in the majors — behind just the Brewers.
Best potential drama: Blue Jays’ defense versus Brewers’ defense. These are two of the best defensive teams in the majors, a key reason they ended up with top records. The Blue Jays are led by infielder Ernie Clement, who tied for the MLB lead with 22 defensive runs saved while having started at all four infield positions; second baseman Andres Gimenez, who is playing shortstop with Bo Bichette injured; and center fielders Daulton Varsho and Myles Straw, who combined for 25 DRS. The Brewers are solid across the board and loaded with speed in the outfield with Jackson Chourio (whose status for Game 2 is uncertain after an MRI on his right hamstring came back inconclusive), Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick.
If you like left-handed pitching: Yankees vs. Phillies
The Yankees last won the World Series in 2009 — when they beat the Philadelphia Phillies, who were trying to defend the title they won in 2008, the last time they won it all. The Yankees took the 2009 title in six games with Hideki Matsui hitting .615 (8-for-13) with three home runs and eight RBIs to win MVP honors. The teams also met in the 1950 World Series, when the Phillies’ “Whiz Kids” were the surprise pennant winners in the National League. The Yankees swept in four games.
The obvious current tie-in is Phillies manager Rob Thomson, who served as third-base coach and bench coach with the Yankees from 2008 to 2017 before joining the Phillies as their bench coach in 2018 after the Yankees hired Aaron Boone over Thomson to replace Joe Girardi as manager.
Five players to fill our Immaculate Grid: Bobby Abreu, Oscar Gamble, Kenny Lofton, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Hayes
Combined years without a championship: 33
Why this would be fun: Lefty pitching against lefty power. The Yankees feature lefties Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, who combined for 37 wins in the regular season, while the Phillies run out Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez. The last team to win the World Series with at least four games started by lefties was Atlanta in 2021, but two of those were openers. The Boston Red Sox had three southpaw starters when they won in 2018 (Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez), as did the Dodgers when they lost in 2017 (Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood), but prior to the Red Sox, the last team to win with three lefty starters was the 1996 Yankees with Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Key and Kenny Rogers.
What would make this an intriguing World Series, however, is the left-on-left matchups. The Yankees have righty slugger Aaron Judge but also led the majors in home runs by left-handed batters, while the Phillies, with left-handers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, ranked fourth. The Yankees’ splits were even, but Boone did bench lefties Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ben Rice and Ryan McMahon against lefty Garrett Crochet in favor of right-handed hitters.
Best potential drama: Judge! Giancarlo Stanton! Schwarber! Harper! If those names don’t get you excited, go watch pickleball.
If you like a never-before-seen historical matchup: Tigers vs. Dodgers
Of the 16 original franchises that existed when the American League formed in 1901, there have been 44 out of a possible 64 World Series matchups (including franchise relocations). This is the most surprising one not to have occurred because the Dodgers have played in 22 World Series and the Detroit Tigers in 11. Tigers-Phillies would be the other original 16 matchup that could be crossed off this year.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Kirk Gibson, Max Scherzer, Gary Sheffield, Enos Cabell, John Shelby
Combined years without a championship: 41 … that’s 41 for the Tigers and zero for the Dodgers
Why this would be fun: You think the Dodgers might like revenge on A.J. Hinch, Houston’s manager in 2017 when the trash-can-banging Astros beat L.A. in seven games to win the World Series? Yeah, most of the guys from that matchup are gone, but Clayton Kershaw is still here, as is L.A. manager Dave Roberts. And though the Dodgers have won two World Series since then, you know they think they were wronged in 2017.
Aside from that, we would get two classic franchises, two classic uniforms, maybe one last World Series appearance from the retiring Kershaw and the chance for the Dodgers to become the first repeat champions since the 2000 Yankees.
Best potential drama: Tarik Skubal versus Shohei Ohtani. The best pitcher in the AL versus the best player in the world. If the baseball gods are in an especially compassionate mood, they will give us Skubal starting against Ohtani. May the baddest man on the planet win.
If you like a drought-buster World Series: Mariners vs. Brewers
You want history? We have history. The Brewers were born in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots, but the Pilots went bankrupt before the start of the 1970 season and a Bud Selig-led group purchased the team (whose equipment trucks were literally stranded in Utah after leaving spring training waiting on where to go). Indeed, the Brewers’ blue and gold colors are a remnant of the Pilots’ original colors.
The Seattle Mariners came aboard as an expansion franchise in 1977 after the City of Seattle and King County sued the AL for breach of contract. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the teams had a heated rivalry that led to a massive brawl at the Kingdome in 1990. Lately, they have been frequent trade partners. Brewers ace Freddy Peralta came over from the Mariners as a minor leaguer in exchange for Adam Lind, one of Jerry Dipoto’s first trades as Mariners GM.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Gorman Thomas, Chris Bosio, Richie Sexson, Mike Cameron, Yuniesky Betancourt
Combined years without a championship: 104
Why this would be fun: First off, this is the matchup that gives us the longest combined title drought, with neither franchise having won a World Series (at least Milwaukee has the Braves, who won in 1957, but even that was 68 years ago). The Pilots tie-in is certainly interesting, but mostly this is fun because you can make the argument that the biggest story in the AL this season was Cal Raleigh bashing 60 home runs and the Mariners winning 17 of 18 in September to capture their first division title since 2001, and that the biggest story in the NL was the Brewers finishing with the best record in the majors, winning more games than the superstar-laden Phillies or Dodgers.
The contrast in styles would be intriguing as well. The Mariners — despite playing in a pitcher’s park — finished third in the majors in home runs. It wasn’t just Raleigh, as Eugenio Suarez hit 49 (between the Diamondbacks and Mariners) while Julio Rodriguez (32), Randy Arozarena (27) and Jorge Polanco (26) each topped 25. The Brewers were second in the majors in batting average and stolen bases while ranking fourth in lowest strikeout rate. Don’t, however, view the Mariners as a one-dimensional team: Though they can’t match Milwaukee’s speed up and down the lineup, they did finish third in the majors in stolen bases as Arozarena, Rodriguez and Josh Naylor each swiped at least 30 bags.
Best potential drama: Mariners hitters versus late-game heat. Unsurprisingly, considering his 60 blasts, Raleigh led the majors with 34 home runs against fastballs, and improving against four-seamers up in the zone was a key to his big season. But the Brewers’ bullpen can really dial it up. Abner Uribe throws a 99 mph sinker. Trevor Megill throws 99 mph. Jacob Misiorowski, if he’s in the pen and not starting, throws 99 and reaches triple digits. Aaron Ashby is a lefty with 97 mph gas. Nick Mears sits at 95 with a wipeout slider.
If you like cold weather: Tigers vs. Cubs
These teams have met in four World Series — although the last one was 80 years ago. The Chicago Cubs won in 1907 and 1908, defeating the Ty Cobb-led Tigers. Detroit won in 1935 and 1945. Aside from that, this would give us another original 16 matchup, and those always seem a little special. As long as these two teams have been around, they haven’t had much intertwining history. They didn’t even make a trade with each other from 1987 to 2004.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Bill Madlock, Luis Gonzalez, Keith Moreland, Richie Hebner, Kyle Farnsworth
Combined years without a championship: 50
Why this would be fun: The cold weather joke aside (anybody who was at Games 3 and 4 in Detroit in the 2012 World Series can attest to the possibility of needing to wear their winter parka in late October in Detroit), this looks as if it might be the ultimate battle of the bullpens. So, no, not exactly 1907 when Cubs starters Jack Pfiester, Ed Reulbach, Orval Overall and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown reeled off four consecutive complete games to defeat the Tigers. This might be the ultimate second-guessing matchup as Cubs manager Craig Counsell would have to know how to deal with Detroit’s two lefty sluggers, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, while Hinch would churn through his relievers in the non-Skubal starts.
Best potential drama: If he gets healthy, Cubs rookie Cade Horton could get his postseason moment. Horton was one of the best starters in the majors in the second half, going 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA in 12 games while allowing a .154 average and just three home runs in 61⅓ innings. He allowed more than one run just once. Horton, however, missed the wild-card series with a right rib fracture and is still out for the NLDS against the Brewers.
Aside from that, we would get Javier Baez, who was part of Chicago’s 2016 title-winning (and drought-breaking) team, going against the team he spent his first eight seasons with, as well as Cubs starter Matthew Boyd facing a Detroit team he was with for seven seasons.
If you like Joe Carter highlights: Blue Jays vs. Phillies
This would be a rematch of the underrated 1993 Fall Classic, which featured the wildest game in World Series history — a 15-14 slugfest in Game 4 that the Blue Jays won — and, of course, Joe Carter’s walk-off, three-run homer against Mitch Williams in Game 6.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Juan Samuel
Combined years without a championship: 49
Why this would be fun: Well, all the highlight clips from the 1993 World Series would be worth it by themselves — not just Carter hitting the biggest home run of his life but the star-studded rosters of both teams that included Rickey Henderson, Roberto Alomar, Paul Molitor, John Olerud, Curt Schilling, John Kruk, Lenny Dykstra and Dykstra’s chewing tobacco.
Aside from that, we would have the Blue Jays in the World Series for the first time since those back-to-back championships in 1992-93 and the Phillies trying to finally win with this roster that is aging and has Schwarber heading into free agency in the offseason. We also would get one of the best uniform matchups in the sport. The Phillies, in my opinion, have the best uniform set in the majors, while the Jays have the classic baby blues to go with their traditional home whites. Do not underestimate the value of a good uni matchup.
Oh, and both fan bases are among the loudest in the sport — Phillies crowds are notoriously loud from the first pitch of games, although Blue Jays fans probably broke the noise meter back in 2015 when Jose Bautista hit that grand slam against the Rangers.
Best drama: Jeff Hoffman facing his former teammates. Last year with the Phillies, Hoffman was an All-Star who had a dominant regular season before losing two games in the NLDS against the Mets. In 2025, he had an uneven season as the Blue Jays’ closer, allowing 15 home runs — the second most of any reliever — but saving 33 games. Hoffman facing Schwarber and Harper with the game on the line would be the reverse tension of Williams facing Carter in 1993.
If you like center fielders: Mariners vs. Cubs
The Cubs owe a little favor to the Mariners for ending their World Series curse in 2016. Mike Montgomery, whom Chicago acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline in 2016 for Daniel Vogelbach and Paul Blackburn, recorded the final out of the Game 7 victory — certainly one of the most obscure pitchers to get the last out of a World Series.
Lou Piniella managed the Mariners from 1993 to 2002 and the Cubs from 2007 to 2010, making the playoffs four times with Seattle and twice with Chicago, but he couldn’t guide either team to a World Series. The two teams shared another manager in Jim Lefebvre.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Jamie Moyer, Goose Gossage, Steve Henderson, Gary Matthews, Heathcliff Slocumb
Combined years without a championship: 57
Why this would be fun: Julio Rodriguez and Pete Crow-Armstrong. They were the two best center fielders this season — and two of the most exciting players in the sport — with Rodriguez ranking fifth among all position players in Baseball Reference WAR and Crow-Armstrong ranking 11th. They also ranked 13th and 15th in FanGraphs WAR. Both finished with 30-30 seasons.
Both provide power, speed and highlight-reel catches in center field. J-Rod got hot in the second half: He hit .290/.341/.560 after the All-Star break with 18 home runs and 45 RBIs in 65 games. Crow-Armstrong looked like the NL MVP in the first half when he had an .847 OPS with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases before hitting just .216 after the break.
Best potential drama: The Mariners winning the World Series? That’s all the drama some of us need.
If you like villains: Yankees vs. Dodgers
Lots of history between these two teams, with 12 World Series matchups, including last year when the Dodgers won in five games.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Rickey Henderson, Willie Randolph, Robin Ventura, Kevin Brown, Darryl Strawberry
Combined years without a championship: 16 (long years for the Yankees)
Why this would be fun: Haters are going to hate, and it would certainly be understandable if you’re not a Yankees or Dodgers fan considering the purchasing power of these two franchises. Indeed, though the Yankees held the “villain” title among the general population of baseball fans for the longest time, the Dodgers have usurped them in recent years with their slew of high-priced free agents (Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Freddie Freeman, Tanner Scott) and big extensions (Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow). Heck, even Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner complained in the spring that it is “difficult” for other teams to keep up with the Dodgers — though he didn’t receive much sympathy.
Still, a rematch would be … dare we say … let’s put this as gently as possible … entertaining! Sure, some of you wouldn’t be able to handle it, but it would be the first World Series rematch since 1977-78, between the … yes, Yankees and Dodgers (the Yankees won both times). The Dodgers would be trying to become that first repeat champion since the Yankees in 2000 to further cement their historical legacy. The Yankees would be trying to end that — for them — long World Series drought since 2009. There would be big stars all over the field. And considering both teams have had bullpen issues, perhaps some late-game drama that could turn this showdown into a seven-game epic.
Best potential drama: Judge vs. Ohtani. This didn’t quite materialize in last year’s World Series when the two MVPs didn’t do much at the plate — Judge hit .222 with one home run (in the fifth game) and three RBIs while Ohtani hit just .105 with no home runs and no RBIs. Of course, now that Ohtani is pitching, it sets the stage for the sport’s two biggest stars going directly head-to-head. That, my baseball friends, is October drama at its best.
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Our hottest early MLB playoff hot takes: From one pitch deciding October to the Jays averaging … how many runs per game?!
We’re one week into the 2025 MLB playoffs, with two games having now been played in all four division series matchups.
In the small-sample-size world of October baseball, it might seem like that means we’ve seen enough to know a lot. But the reality for a sport that combines 162-game seasons with the chaos of short playoff series is: Things can change in a hurry this time of year.
As we do early in every MLB regular season, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they’ve noticed by giving us their boldest prediction for the rest of the postseason based on what they’ve seen so far.
Some of our predictions are quite bold, whereas others took a milder approach. But all of them have a chance of becoming smokin’ hot by the time the World Series trophy is raised this month — or ending up freezing cold.
The themes that we’ll all be talking about
All four division series will go five games
The division series was introduced 30 years ago, and only once, in 2012, did all four of them go the distance. It’ll happen again this year — even though three of the four have already begun with a 2-0 lead.
The gap among the eight remaining playoff contenders feels smaller this year than it has in quite a while, especially with arguably the two best, the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, squaring off so early. The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs are perfectly capable of winning back-to-games at home. The series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, which began with a split in Seattle, seems primed to extend into a fifth game. And though the Phillies have their backs against the wall, coming off two straight losses in Philadelphia, they have the ability to take two in a row at Dodger Stadium — heck, they did it less than a month ago. — Alden Gonzalez
One pitch will decide October
The team that wins the World Series will be the team that has the best differential in performance between throwing splitters and hitting them. Do I know if this will happen? Definitely not! But the proliferation of splitters so far in the postseason has been staggering.
TruMedia has pitch-type data going back to 2008. The percentage of pitches classified as splitters has ranged from 0.2% (2016) to 3.1% (2023). So far this year: 5.7%. The leading practitioners: the Toronto Blue Jays, by far, at 25.9%, mostly thanks to Kevin Gausman and the amazing Trey Yesavage. Incidentally, they were also by far the best-hitting team against splitters in the regular season (.346 WOBA). Guess this means the Jays are going to win it all. — Bradford Doolittle
The success of the splitter this October will make it the most-talked-about pitch in the spring
The eye-opening postseason performances of Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Roki Sasaki will serve as jet fuel for the rising popularity of the split-fingered fastball. There was already growing interest in the splitter throughout the 2025 season, thanks to the success of the likes of Hurston Waldrep. Then, along came Yesavage and Gausman and their diving splitters, neutralizing the powerful Yankees: In the first two games of the ALDS, New York was 0-for-22 with 13 strikeouts in at-bats ending with a splitter. The Yankees swung at splitters 39 times and missed 24 times. In a copycat industry, you can bet a ton of pitchers will be tinkering with splitters before next spring, just as hundreds of pitchers adopted cutters because of Mariano Rivera. — Buster Olney
The stars who will shine all postseason
Cal Raleigh will outhomer every other 60-home run hitter in the postseason — combined
The Mariners’ star slugger just became the fifth player to reach the postseason on the heels of a 60-homer season. The others?
1927 Babe Ruth: 2 HR in 4 games
1961 Roger Maris: 1 HR in 5 games
1998 Sammy Sosa: 0 HR in 3 games
2022 Aaron Judge: 2 HR in 9 games
Raleigh didn’t leave the yard in the first two games of the ALDS against Detroit, but he did collect four hits while Julio Rodriguez, batting behind him, supplied the power. Given Seattle’s balance, depth and October path, it’s easy to envision a long run — and with it, at least half a dozen blasts from the Big Dumper. — Paul Hembekides
Jackson Chourio will become the 10th player to win both LCS and World Series MVPs
Why doubt the Milwaukee Brewers now? They’ve enjoyed a magical run to this point and have looked great at the onset of the division series. Chourio has been quite the table-setter — he had three hits in two innings in Game 1 — and he’s one of the game’s budding superstars. This October is his breakout party. — Tristan Cockcroft
Roki Sasaki, Jhoan Duran and Andres Munoz will post nothing but zeros
This trio — two relief aces and a starter-turned-closer for the playoffs — won’t give up an earned run in either the LDS or LCS. Munoz and Duran were two of the top relievers in the sport this year, and Sasaki started looking like one in the past couple of weeks, which my colleague Jeff Passan broke down in his dive into how the Dodgers fixed their flamethrower. — Kiley McDaniel
Roki Sasaki Clayton Kershaw will record the final out of the 2025 World Series
As Dodgers manager Dave Roberts goes game to game in the postseason trying to figure out exactly which relievers he can trust in a big moment, how about this for the ultimate scenario: Kershaw, in his final pitch in the majors, gets that final out. Maybe it’s a save. Maybe it’s a blowout. Maybe the game goes extra innings. Maybe it’s an act of desperation after Roberts uses Roki Sasaki — who’s looking more and more like Roberts’ closer — earlier in the game. And that final pitch? A big, looping 72 mph curveball. — David Schoenfield
The teams that we’ll be watching all October
The Blue Jays will average 10 runs per game in the playoffs
Well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and pals are certainly off to a great start, but why stop after two blowout wins over the Yankees? The Blue Jays hammered Luis Gil, Max Fried, Will Warren and Luke Weaver. Will Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler (maybe, if the series goes to Game 4) and whichever pitchers other remaining teams throw at the Blue Jays do better? Probably, but Vlad Jr., Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and eventually Bo Bichette are ready to make history! — Eric Karabell
Toronto won’t lose a game until the World Series
The Blue Jays have enough pitching to win every game on the way to the World Series. So much so that Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt weren’t even needed in the ALDS and were left off the roster. They might be in the ALCS, but even then, Toronto will have choices to make for its rotation. The emergence of rookie Trey Yesavage has changed the calculus for the Jays on the mound, giving them more options than most teams at this time of year.
Add in the potential return of Bichette, Toronto’s great home record (tops in the AL) and a potential long series between the Tigers and Mariners on the other side of the AL bracket, and the Blue Jays are set up for a potential undefeated run to the Fall Classic. Their smoking hot offense might get them there on its own. — Jesse Rogers
The Yankees will send the ALDS back to Toronto
As underwater as they look, the Yankees have a pathway back into this series despite a 2-0 deficit. Shane Bieber, the Blue Jays’ Game 3 starter, is going to fill up the strike zone — and has been homer-prone in recent starts. And with the short porch in right field calling, the Yankees’ left-handed bats will answer. Getting to Game 4 brings Cam Schlittler, who, in his first postseason start, threw eight shutout innings and punched out 12 without walking a batter. Although the Blue Jays are ball-in-play merchants, Schlittler’s stuff is overwhelming enough to quiet them and make for a Game 5 for the ages at Rogers Centre. — Jeff Passan
The Dodgers are going to 2019 Washington Nationals their way through the postseason
Washington rode five starting pitchers and three relievers all the way from the do-or-die wild-card game through its World Series Game 7 victory over the heavily favored Houston Astros. Led by starters Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez, eight pitchers combined to pitch 141⅔ of the Nationals’ 153 playoff innings. Joe Ross, who got a spot start in Game 5 of the World Series, was the fifth starter Washington used.
Those Nationals happened to topple the Dodgers in the NLDS.
This year’s Dodgers, like those Nationals, boast a deep rotation and a shaky bullpen. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Emmett Sheehan, Roki Sasaki and Alex Vesia should absorb the bulk of the October workload. Of those eight pitchers, only Vesia was primarily a reliever during the regular season. The Nationals proved a version of the formula can work. Six years later, it’s the best recipe for the Dodgers to win a championship. — Jorge Castillo
The Dodgers will sweep their way to a repeat
With 10 hitters who hit double-digit home runs during the regular season, the Dodgers simply don’t have to worry about that one bat going cold. And outside of Yamamoto, none of their pitchers has thrown over 125 innings — but they have such a depth in their rotation that they’ve been able to push some of their starters to the bullpen in October.
It’s all hands on deck in any game they need it. — AJ Mass
The 2025 World Series champion won’t come out of the Dodgers-Phillies NLDS
Ever since the bracket for this postseason was set — even before the Dodgers advanced out of the wild-card series to make the meeting official — there has been a thought percolating that Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia was this year’s true World Series (or at least NLCS) playing out in the division series round. Well, I’m here to tell you that is not a foregone conclusion.
Yes, the Phillies and the Dodgers possess the most talent of any teams in the sport — but that didn’t stop the Brewers from going a combined 10-2 against Philly and L.A. during the regular season. And how about those Blue Jays (the team two of my colleagues predicted very big things for above), or the Mariners, who definitely have the it factor on their side, or the Tigers, who have the best pitcher on the planet (excluding at-bats vs. Jorge Polanco) on theirs.
I’m going to play the percentages here and say someone other than the Phillies or Dodgers will be the last team standing. — Dan Mullen
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