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Labour and the Conservatives have been left reeling from Reform UK’s rampant success at the local elections.

And it seems both have taken a clear message from the insurgent party’s signature attitude towards migration.

Politics live: Care homes face ban on overseas recruitment

Polls regularly show the issue is a top concern for voters. While stopping the boats driving illegal migration is proving as difficult for Labour as it was for the Tories – the government has the levers to control legal migration much more directly.

This week, Sir Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper have decided it’s time to pull them, with their long-awaited white paper due to be published on Monday. But the trade offs involved in reforming the system certainly aren’t without controversy.

Speaking to Sky’s Sir Trevor Phillips to sell her plans to reduce visa numbers, the home secretary repeatedly talked about “restoring control”.

It’s no coincidence to hear her invoking the language of Brexit – highlighting the fact it was Boris Johnson who presided over the spiralling increase in migration after the vote to leave the European Union – and attempting to court the voters who believed doing so would close the borders to the influx of overseas workers.

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“It’s about restoring control and order,” she said. “It’s about preventing this chaotic system where we had overseas recruitment soar while training in the UK was cut…

“That is a broken system. So that is what we need to change.”

The home office plan is to link the reduction in overseas workers with government efforts to get the economically inactive back into work. In future, only those with degree-level qualifications will be eligible for skilled worker visas.

Employers who want to employ lower-skilled workers, on a temporary basis, will have to demonstrate they are training and recruiting UK workers as well.

The home secretary says 180 occupations will be removed from the shortage list, with the shortfall filled by training schemes to fill the gaps with home-grown workers. Questions abound about how training schemes will marry up with immediate business needs now.

But it’s the closure of the specific care worker visa which is leading to the loudest alarm bells thus far.

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Reform: Immigration ‘should be frozen’

Many in the sector are desperately worried about pre-existing staffing shortfalls, unconvinced by government advice to recruit from a pool of 10,000 workers already in the UK on care visas.

Professor Martin Green, of Care England, said: “This is a crushing blow to an already fragile sector. The government is kicking us while we’re already down.”

But the government is determined to try and wean the economy off its dependence on overseas labour.

The increase in net migration is staggering. Before Brexit, the highest figure was 329,000, in the year up to June 2015.

But by June 2023, the annual number had soared to 906,000. While last year that figure fell to 728,000, following restrictions on dependents on care and student visas – the number is still strikingly high.

Kemi Badenoch’s Tories have decided there’s no room for evasion and have regularly issued dramatic apologies for the decisions of the past.

“The last government,” said Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp on Sunday, as if he had no part of it, “made some very serious mistakes with immigration. They allowed it to be far, far too high…that was a huge mistake.”

But Mr Philp is characteristically full of criticism of Labour’s “failure” on the “radical reforms” needed.

He wants to see parliament voting for an annual cap on numbers, although hasn’t specified what that would be.

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Ms Cooper says migration targets have no credibility after years of Tory failures – but also acknowledged that she wants the numbers to fall “substantially” and “significantly” below 500,000.

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She claims the skilled worker visa changes will lead to 50,000 fewer visas being issued this year alone – a small proportion of that overall too, but a quick result all the same.

Will it be enough?

Reform UK are clearly delighted to be directing the government’s policy agenda.

Deputy leader Richard Tice told Sir Trevor “the Labour Party is talking the talk. Will they actually walk the walk? I actually think the people are voting for us because they know that we mean it.”

But the policy is a risk.

Assuaging voters’ concerns on migration could mean taking a serious hit to an already anaemic economy and struggling care sector. Not to mention the longer-term political decision to move the party firmly to the right.

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Nigel Farage says he would allow essential migration but numbers would be capped

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Nigel Farage says he would allow essential migration but numbers would be capped

Nigel Farage has told Sky News he would allow some essential migration in areas with skill shortages but that numbers would be capped.

The Reform UK leader said he would announce the cap “in four years’ time” after he was pressed repeatedly by Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates about his manifesto pledge to freeze “non-essential” immigration.

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It was put to Mr Farage that despite his criticism of the government’s migration crackdown, allowing essential migration in his own plans is quite a big caveat given the UK’s skills shortages.

However the Clacton MP said he would allow people to plug the gaps on “time dependent work permits” rather than on longer-term visas.

He said: “Let’s take engineering, for argument’s sake. We don’t train enough engineers, we just don’t. It’s crazy.

“We’ve been pushing young people to doing social sciences degrees or whatever it is.

“So you’re an engineering company, you need somebody to come in on skills. If they come in, on a time dependent work permit, if all the right health assurances and levies have been paid and if at the end of that period of time, you leave or you’re forced to leave, then it works.”

Read more:
What are Starmer’s new immigration rules?
The choice facing Labour in face of Reform threat – analysis

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‘We need to reduce immigration’

Reform’s manifesto, which they call a “contract”, says that “essential skills, mainly around healthcare, must be the only exception” to migration.

Pressed on how wide his exemption would be, Mr Farage said he hopes enough nurses and doctors will be trained “not to need anybody from overseas within the space of a few years”.

He said that work permits should be separate to immigration, adding: “If you get a job for an American TV station and you stay 48 hours longer than your work permit, they will smash your front door down, put you in handcuffs and deport you.

“We allow all of these routes, whether it’s coming into work, whether it’s coming as a student, we have allowed all of these to become routes for long-term migration.”

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Sky’s Sam Coates questions PM on migration

Asked if he would put a cap on his essential skills exemption, he said: “We will. I can’t tell you the numbers right now, I don’t have all the figures. What I can tell you is anyone that comes in will not be allowed to stay long-term. That’s the difference.”

Pressed if that was a commitment to a cap under a Reform UK government, he suggested he would set out further detail ahead of the next election, telling Coates: “Ask me in four years’ time, all right?”

Mr Farage was speaking after the government published an immigration white paper which pledged to ban overseas care workers as part of a package of measures to bring down net migration.

The former Brexit Party leader claimed the proposals were a “knee jerk reaction” to his party’s success at the local elections and accused the prime minister of not having the vigour to “follow them through”.

However he said he supports the “principle” of banning foreign care workers and conceded he might back some of the measures if they are put to a vote in parliament.

He said: “If it was stuff that did actually bind the government, there might be amendments on this that you would support. But I’m not convinced.”

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‘More people should be given this chance’: The probation centres transforming offenders’ lives

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'More people should be given this chance': The probation centres transforming offenders' lives

The combination of full prisons and tight public finances has forced the government to urgently rethink its approach.

Top of the agenda for an overhaul are short sentences, which look set to give way to more community rehabilitation.

The cost argument is clear – prison is expensive. It’s around £60,000 per person per year compared to community sentences at roughly £4,500 a year.

But it’s not just saving money that is driving the change.

Research shows short custodial terms, especially for first-time offenders, can do more harm than good, compounding criminal behaviour rather than acting as a deterrent.

Charlie describes herself as a former "junkie shoplifter"
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Charlie describes herself as a former ‘junkie shoplifter’

This is certainly the case for Charlie, who describes herself as a former “junkie, shoplifter from Leeds” and spoke to Sky News at Preston probation centre.

She was first sent down as a teenager and has been in and out of prison ever since. She says her experience behind bars exacerbated her drug use.

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Charlie in February 2023
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Charlie in February 2023


“In prison, I would never get clean. It’s easy, to be honest, I used to take them in myself,” she says. “I was just in a cycle of getting released, homeless, and going straight back into trap houses, drug houses, and that cycle needs to be broken.”

Eventually, she turned her life around after a court offered her drug treatment at a rehab facility.

She says that after decades of addiction and criminality, one judge’s decision was the turning point.

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“That was the moment that changed my life and I just want more judges to give more people that chance.”

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How to watch Sophy Ridge’s special programme live from Preston Prison

Also at Preston probation centre, but on the other side of the process, is probation officer Bex, who is also sceptical about short sentences.

“They disrupt people’s lives,” she says. “So, people might lose housing because they’ve gone to prison… they come out homeless and may return to drug use and reoffending.”

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Care homes face ban on overseas recruitment
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Charlie with Becks at the probation centre in Preston 
grab from Liz Bates VT for use in correspondent piece
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Bex works with offenders to turn their lives around

Bex has seen first-hand the value of alternative routes out of crime.

“A lot of the people we work with have had really disjointed lives. It takes a long time for them to trust someone, and there’s some really brilliant work that goes on every single day here that changes lives.”

It’s people like Bex and Charlie, and places like Preston probation centre, that are at the heart of the government’s change in direction.

:: Watch special programme on prisons on Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge at 7pm

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Inside the UK’s broken prison system where tinkering around the edges will no longer work

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Inside the UK's broken prison system where tinkering around the edges will no longer work

“As far as I’m concerned, there’s only three ways to spend the taxpayers’ hard-earned when it comes to prisons. More walls, more bars and more guards.”

Prison reform is one of the hardest sells in government.

Hospitals, schools, defence – these are all things you would put on an election leaflet.

Even the less glamorous end of the spectrum – potholes and bin collections – are vote winners.

But prisons? Let’s face it, the governor’s quote from the Shawshank Redemption reflects public polling pretty accurately.

Right now, however, reform is unavoidable because the system is at breaking point.

It’s a phrase that is frequently used so carelessly that it’s been diluted into cliche. But in this instance, it is absolutely correct.

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Without some kind of intervention, the prison system is at breaking point.

It will break.

Inside Preston Prison

Ahead of the government’s Sentencing Review, expected to recommend more non-custodial sentences, I’ve been talking to staff and inmates at Preston Prison, a Category B men’s prison originally built in 1790.

Overcrowding is at 156% here, according to the Howard League.

Sophy Ridge talking outside Preston Prison
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Sophy Ridge talking outside Preston Prison

One prisoner I interviewed, in for burglary, was, until a few hours before, sharing his cell with his son.

It was his son’s first time in jail – but not his. He had been out of prison since he was a teenager. More than 30 years – in and out of prison.

His family didn’t like it, he said, and now he has, in his own words, dragged his son into it.

Sophie is a prison officer and one of those people who would be utterly brilliant doing absolutely anything, and is exactly the kind of person we should all want working in prisons.

She said the worst thing about the job is seeing young men, at 18, 19, in jail for the first time. Shellshocked. Mental health all over the place. Scared.

And then seeing them again a couple of years later.

And then again.

The same faces. The officers get to know them after a while, which in a way is nice but also terrible.

Sophy Ridge talking to one of the officers who works within Preston Prison
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Sophy Ridge talking to one of the officers who works within Preston Prison

The £18bn spectre of reoffending

We know the stats about reoffending, but it floored me how the system is failing. It’s the same people. Again and again.

The Sentencing Review, which we’re just days away from, will almost certainly recommend fewer people go to prison, introducing more non-custodial or community sentencing and scrapping short sentences that don’t rehabilitate but instead just start people off on the reoffending merry-go-round, like some kind of sick ride.

But they’ll do it on the grounds of cost (reoffending costs £18bn a year, a prison place costs £60,000 a year, community sentences around £4,500 per person).

They’ll do it because prisons are full (one of Keir Starmer’s first acts was being forced to let prisoners out early because there was no space).

If the government wants to be brave, however, it should do it on the grounds of reform, because prison is not working and because there must be a better way.

Inside Preston Prison, Sky News saw firsthand a system truly at breaking point - picture of a prison officer's back with HMP Preston written on it.
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Inside Preston Prison, Sky News saw first-hand a system truly at breaking point

A cold, hard look

I’ve visited prisons before, as part of my job, but this was different.

Before it felt like a PR exercise, I was taken to one room in a pristine modern prison where prisoners were learning rehabilitation skills.

This time, I felt like I really got under the skin of Preston Prison.

It’s important to say that this is a good prison, run by a thoughtful governor with staff that truly care.

But it’s still bloody hard.

“You have to be able to switch off,” one officer told me, “Because the things you see….”

Staff are stretched and many are inexperienced because of high turnover.

After a while, I understood something that had been nagging me. Why have I been given this access? Why are people being so open with me? This isn’t what usually happens with prisons and journalists.

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Probation centres answer to UK crime?

That’s when I understood.

They want people to know. They want people to know that yes, they do an incredible job and prisons aren’t perfect, but they’re not as bad as you think.

But that’s despite the government, not because of it.

Sometimes the worst thing you can do on limited resources is to work so hard you push yourself to the brink, so the system itself doesn’t break, because then people think ‘well maybe we can continue like this after all… maybe it’s okay’.

But things aren’t okay. When people say the system is at breaking point – this time it isn’t a cliche.

They really mean it.

:: Watch special programme on prisons on Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge at 7pm

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