Are the Orioles blowing their contention window? What we can learn from other stacked young teams
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David Schoenfield
Let’s be clear: We are not burying the Baltimore Orioles just yet. The season is young, and there is plenty of time for them to heat up and get back into the playoff race. It’s not like any team has pulled away in the American League East, and the six-team playoff field in each league makes it that much easier to squeeze into the postseason anyway.
Still, the Orioles are supposed to be at their height of contention, fighting for best-team-in-baseball status, not battling the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels for the worst record in the AL, as is currently the case.
The Orioles had ESPN’s top-ranked farm system in 2022 and 2023 and parlayed that into an impressive 101-win season and division title in 2023. They again had the top-ranked farm system entering 2024, and while last year’s 91-win season was a minor letdown, it at least resulted in another trip to the playoffs. In each of those years, they had the top overall prospect: Adley Rutschman (2022), Gunnar Henderson (2023) and Jackson Holliday (2024). Entering the 2025 campaign, their farm system dropped to No. 14 since a lot of their top prospects have now graduated to the majors.
Baltimore also had another reason for optimism in new owner David Rubenstein, a Baltimore native and avowed Orioles fan who is worth an estimated $3.7 billion. Fans hoped he might pull the team into a higher payroll class as the franchise chased its first World Series appearance and championship since 1983.
Instead, the Orioles are 13-21, with a rotation that ranks last in the AL in with a 5.75 ERA, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins overall, and an offense that’s tied for 21st in the majors in OPS and ranks 23rd in runs per game. After averaging 4.98 runs per game in 2023 and 4.85 in 2024, the O’s are averaging just 3.82 in 2025 (even after the left-field fence was moved back at Camden Yards). One game in late April featured a lineup with Ramon Laureano hitting leadoff, Ramon Urias batting cleanup and Gary Sanchez and Dylan Carlson hitting fifth and sixth. That was not how this was supposed to look.
What has happened here? Would it be unusual for a team to be where the Orioles were and suddenly fall apart? To investigate this, we found teams that matched where the Orioles stood entering 2024 — coming off a playoff season while also possessing a top farm system the following spring. That would seem to be the perfect storm for a highly competitive contention window: a good team with more young talent on the way.
Going back to 2000, we found all the teams that (1) had made the playoffs and (2) began the next season with a top-three-ranked farm system, according to either Baseball America (since 2001) or ESPN (since 2012). Including the 2023 Orioles, this provided a list of 25 teams. We then tracked each team’s performance over the next three seasons; for the 2023 Orioles, this would so far include only the 2024 season.
Here are those 25 teams, as well as their records the following three seasons:
Our overall findings: Not only did these teams fare exceptionally well, they rarely were bad — and often were great.
Out of 71 future seasons that have been completed in each team’s immediate three-year window, these teams made the playoffs 48 times — 68% of the time, including the Orioles in 2024. Those odds have been even higher in recent seasons with the expanded playoff field; the first three teams on the list — the 2000 White Sox, 2001 Seattle Mariners and 2001 Houston Astros — made just one playoff appearance out of nine seasons between them.
There were only eight losing seasons out of 71. Leaving aside 2020, 42 teams out of a possible 67 seasons won at least 90 games (63%), and 14 (21%) won at least 100.
Let’s dig deeper and compare the 2023 Orioles — and their ensuing three-year contention window — more specifically to the five teams in our study that had a No. 1-ranked farm system.
Top five prospects in 2001: Jon Rauch, Joe Borchard, Joe Crede, Matt Ginter, Dan Wright
Others of note: Aaron Rowand
Next three seasons: 83-79, 81-81, 86-76 (no playoff appearances)
This is an interesting team because another element of the perfect storm for contention would be the younger the playoff team, the better. Combining the average age of the position player group and the pitchers from Baseball-Reference (which adjusts those figures for playing time), the White Sox were the second-youngest team on the list, behind only the 2022 Cleveland Guardians. And yet, Chicago scuffled along the next three seasons — and got very little from that prospect group.
The White Sox did break through in 2005, however, winning the World Series, with Crede and Rowand both starters on that team. Rauch got injured but was traded for Carl Everett, another starter on the 2005 team.
How the Orioles compare: The 2023 Orioles were one of the younger teams on the list, tied for fifth youngest. This was a large part of the optimism around them, especially with those three top overall prospects providing the foundation. The Orioles were always thinner on pitching prospects, however, and that’s been a problem in 2025 as injuries in the rotation have piled up.
Of course, the expectation this past winter was that Rubenstein and general manager Mike Elias might go after a top starting pitcher — similar to the previous offseason, when Elias traded two prospects for a legitimate ace in Corbin Burnes. The Orioles then acquired Zach Eflin during the season. But Burnes was just a one-year rental and signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, while Eflin is currently sidelined with a lat strain. Young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been out all season with an elbow issue, and Kyle Bradish, the team’s top starter in 2023, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The problem hasn’t just been the injuries but the stopgaps: 41-year-old Charlie Morton is 0-6 with a 9.76 ERA, 37-year-old Kyle Gibson is 0-1 with a 14.09 ERA in two starts and Cade Povich is 1-2 with a 5.16 ERA.
Top five prospects in 2013: Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Kolten Wong
Others of note: Michael Wacha, Tommy Pham
Next three seasons: 97-65, 90-72, 100-62 (three playoff appearances)
The Cardinals reached the World Series in 2013 (losing to the Boston Red Sox) and had the best record in the National League in 2015 before losing to the Chicago Cubs in the division series. The group of prospects helped supplement what had been more of a veteran team in 2012. Miller joined the rotation in 2013 and won 25 games in two seasons then was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Jason Heyward. Martinez spent a year in the bullpen and became an All-Star starter in 2015 and 2017. Rosenthal racked up 93 saves in 2014-15. Wong was a solid regular, and Wacha was the playoff hero in 2013. Taveras, the star prospect of the group, died in a car accident after the 2014 season.
How the Orioles compare: The Cardinals were built from 2012 to 2015 around their starting rotation — Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Wacha, Miller and Martinez. When Wainwright got hurt in 2015, they still had the depth to pick up the slack. They traded for John Lackey, and he went 13-10 with 5.8 WAR and a 2.77 ERA in 2015. Miller was used to acquire Heyward, who posted 7.0 WAR in 2015 (although then left as a free agent).
In other words, it was a completely different philosophy than the one Baltimore is using. The Cardinals believed they could fill in the gaps on the position player side of things — and they did do that through 2015. (Although once Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday declined, they missed the playoffs for three straight years starting in 2016.)
The Orioles are following the lead of the Cubs and Astros, who built World Series winners in 2016 and 2017 around a core of position players. The Cubs supplemented that group with free agent signings Jon Lester and Lackey plus two astute trades for Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks. The Astros traded for Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke to help build their dynasty.
Elias was part of that Houston front office, and while the Burnes trade worked out for his one season in Baltimore and Eflin pitched well last season after the trade (2.60 ERA in nine starts), it’s fair to say Elias hasn’t landed a starter with the multiyear impact of a Lester, Hendricks, Verlander or Cole.
Top five prospects in 2014: Gregory Polanco, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Nick Kingham
Others of note: Josh Bell, Clay Holmes, Adam Frazier
Next three seasons: 88-74, 98-64, 78-84 (two playoff appearances)
The Pirates had a strong three-year window from 2013 to 2015 with three straight postseason trips, but they have had just one winning season since. It wasn’t so much the lack of willingness to spend on payroll but a series of bad trades and prospects who didn’t pan out. Polanco just wasn’t that good. They traded Gerrit Cole and didn’t get enough in return. They traded Glasnow, Meadows and Shane Baz to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ill-fated 2018 Chris Archer trade.
How the Orioles compare: We’re still finding out if this will be the case with some of these Orioles prospects. But the other thing that happened to the Pirates is Andrew McCutchen — their superstar during those three playoff seasons (he averaged 6.4 WAR and was the MVP winner in 2013) — didn’t keep it going. He fell to minus-0.4 WAR in 2016 and 3.1 WAR in 2017 then was traded in 2018. Starling Marte averaged 4.8 WAR during the playoff run but had a performance-enhancing drugs suspension in 2017 and wasn’t as good when he returned. Even Cole was worth just 1.5 WAR in 2016 and 2.6 in 2017 before exploding after his trade to Houston.
In other words, the Orioles need their stars to perform, and Henderson and Rutschman have just not done that so far in 2025. Henderson has just five RBIs in 27 games, and Rutschman is hitting .211/.318/.351. Jordan Westburg, an All-Star in 2024, is hitting .217/.265/.391 and is currently on the IL with a hamstring strain. Colton Cowser, last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up, played just four games before fracturing his left thumb.
If anything, this is why we probably don’t want to give up on the Orioles: They’ve gotten so little from a group that should be doing a lot more. (And those players are younger than McCutchen and Marte were, so there’s no reason they should collectively be performing this poorly.)
Top five prospects in 2016: Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Jose De Leon, Jose Peraza, Cody Bellinger
Others of note: Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler
Next three seasons: 91-71, 104-58, 106-56 (three playoff appearances)
The 2015 Dodgers were built around Clayton Kershaw and Greinke, who went a combined 35-10 with a 1.90 ERA. Their best position players were 33-year-old Adrian Gonzalez and 30-year-old Justin Turner. While they didn’t win a World Series in the next three years, they did still reach the Fall Classic twice in that span — and went on to eventually win the Series in the shortened 2020 season, with Seager, Urias, Bellinger and Buehler all playing vital roles (while Verdugo became the key player in the trade for Mookie Betts).
How the Orioles compare: The 2023 Orioles were a much younger team than the 2015 Dodgers. (Most of L.A.’s regular position players were 30-something; they had the oldest group of position players in the NL that year.) So, there isn’t much in common here. Yes, the Orioles have their version of Seager in Henderson, but do they have a Bellinger in the pipeline? Can Bradish and Rodriguez bounce back from injuries and help win a World Series, as Urias and Buehler eventually did? The Dodgers used their farm system depth to eventually trade for Betts then signed him to a long-term contract. While the Orioles have shown their willingness to make an impact trade (Burnes), they of course have shown no inclination to spend that kind of money.
The Dodgers also have been able to keep the prospects coming: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the Dodgers as the No. 1 farm system entering 2025, a remarkable assessment given where they draft every year. Even when the Orioles’ farm system ranked first in 2024, it was more about the quality at the top — Holliday, Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo and Heston Kjerstad leading the way — than the overall depth.
Top five prospects in 2020: Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, Vidal Brujan, Shane Baz
Others of note: Shane McClanahan, Xavier Edwards, Joe Ryan, Josh Lowe, Taj Bradley, Pete Fairbanks
Next three seasons: 40-20, 100-62, 86-76 (three playoff appearances)
The Rays reached the World Series in 2020, had another great season in 2021, earned a wild-card spot in 2022, returned to the playoffs with 99 wins in 2023 and finally stumbled in 2024, finishing 80-82. The 2019 Rays were a young team, tied for third youngest on our list. While that top group of prospects didn’t do much with Tampa — only Baz is still active with the organization — the Rays had so much depth in their system that they still managed to extract a lot of value. (Although they probably would like a do-over on the Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz trade in 2021.)
How the Orioles compare: The 2019 Rays would be the best direct match for the 2023 Orioles in terms of youth and roster composition and timeline. Those Rays were the culmination of a multiyear rebuilding project, just like the 2023 Orioles. Tampa Bay made five consecutive playoff appearances, the kind of results you would expect from a young team with a highly rated farm system. (And the results might have been even better if not for Franco’s off-field problems.)
One thing the Rays are not afraid to do: trade their prospects. Liberatore went to the Cardinals for Randy Arozarena; Edwards went to the Marlins for Santiago Suarez, an intriguing pitching prospect now in High-A; and Brujan brought back Jake Mangum, who is contributing to the Rays in 2025. Not all their trades have worked out, but many have.
So far, the Orioles have mostly held on to their guys. The Trevor Rogers trade with the Marlins last summer doesn’t look good right now. Rogers was bad after the trade, and he is now injured, while Kyle Stowers might be having a breakout season for Miami. Kjerstad is struggling for the Orioles, and Mayo just got called back up after going 4-for-41 with 22 strikeouts in a big league trial last year. There’s a chance neither of those two develop as they were once expected to.
Given the mostly successful track records of the teams in the study, is there a worst-case scenario for the Orioles? Here are three examples.
Farm system ranking: No. 2
Top five prospects: Ryan Anderson, Rafael Soriano, Antonio Perez, Chris Snelling, Clint Nageotte
What went wrong: The Mariners won 93 games in each of the next two seasons, although they missed the playoffs back when just four teams made it. They then collapsed to 63-99 in 2004. They were the oldest team in our study, with an average age of 31.1. So, that group aged out after a couple of years, and the prospects didn’t develop — and nearly 20 years of bad baseball ensued. Anderson, nicknamed “The Little Unit” due to his physical resemblance to Randy Johnson, got hurt and never made the majors. Soriano had three 40-save seasons — long after the Mariners traded him away. Snelling was a promising Australian outfielder who reached the majors at age 20 but couldn’t stay healthy. The Mariners also had Shin-Soo Choo in the system and traded him away for nothing.
What the Orioles can learn: The Mariners aren’t a great comparison since they were such a veteran team, but bad trades certainly didn’t help. Carlos Guillen, the starting shortstop in 2001, was traded after 2003 to the Tigers for light-hitting Ramon Santiago and went on to become a three-time All-Star with Detroit. When the Mariners faded in 2004, they traded ace Freddy Garcia to the White Sox with minimal return. Asdrubal Cabrera signed as an amateur free agent with Seattle in 2002 and was later traded away to Cleveland, where he made a couple of All-Star teams.
Moral of the story: You have to trade well. The Orioles did that in 2022, when they acquired Povich and Yennier Cano for Jorge Lopez, but they’ll need more of those wins.
Farm system ranking: No. 2
Top five prospects: Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, Mike Olt, Leonys Martin, Neil Ramirez
What went wrong: After losing in the 2011 World Series, the Rangers did return to the playoffs in 2012 but then lost a tiebreaker game to miss the playoffs in 2013. They fell to 67-95 in 2014 before making a couple of soft playoff appearances in 2015 and 2016. So, this was hardly a full-scale disaster, although they’ve had just one winning season since 2016; that was in 2023, and it happened to result in a World Series title.
This was a case where the prospects just weren’t as good as advertised. Profar was the No. 1 prospect in the game, but shoulder injuries derailed his career. Perez is still pitching, but he didn’t become a big star. Olt was a power-hitting third baseman traded with Ramirez to the Cubs in 2013 for Matt Garza, a rental pitcher. The Rangers also dealt Hendricks to the Cubs for another rental in Ryan Dempster, while Martin, Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara never had the plate discipline to become consistent hitters in the majors.
What the Orioles can learn: Don’t overrate your own prospects — or at least make sure you evaluate them accurately. The Rangers let productive veterans such as Cruz, C.J. Wilson and Mike Napoli (plus Josh Hamilton, although his career flamed out after moving on from the Rangers) leave in free agency because they believed they had prospects ready to step in . They traded Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder with the idea that Profar could take over at second, but that turned into a tough trade when Fielder had to retire due to a neck injury. They also had some bad injury luck in the rotation with Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando all getting hurt.
The Orioles will be facing a lot of similar types of decisions this offseason, with a large chunk of the roster headed to free agency, including Cedric Mullins, Eflin, Ryan O’Hearn and Gregory Soto, plus several other players on one-year deals. The owner’s checkbook might need to play a bigger role next offseason.
Farm system ranking: No. 2 Baseball America/No. 5 ESPN
Top five prospects: Xander Bogaerts, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Webster, Blake Swihart
Others in the system: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez, Matt Barnes, Manuel Margot, Brock Holt (and a bunch of others who made the playoffs)
What went wrong: This isn’t even a worst-case scenario, necessarily, although the Red Sox were the only team on our list to have two losing seasons out of the next three. (The 2022 Guardians could match that with a losing record in 2025.) Boston won the World Series with an older team in 2013 but was under .500 in 2014 and 2015. Eventually, the farm system produced another World Series title in 2018.
What the Orioles can learn: The 2013 Red Sox had David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and some other vets who had big years. By 2018, Ortiz was retired and Pedroia was injured. But Boston had come up with new stars: Betts, Bogaerts and Chris Sale (acquired for prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech). The Red Sox supplemented the new stars with two big free agents, David Price and J.D. Martinez.
The Orioles have so far failed to either extend any of their young stars or play with the big boys in free agency. They still have their main core under team control for years to come. (Rutschman would be the first to reach free agency, after the 2027 season.) But it does feel like, at some point, the Orioles might have to be more aggressive than they’ve been — unless they can figure out how to thread the needle like the Rays have done throughout the years.
All in all, the Orioles haven’t really done anything “wrong” yet — unless you count not signing a big free agent pitcher. But if you look at the most successful long-term organizations in the study, they didn’t do that, either. The Astros made trades for pitchers. The 2014 and 2015 Dodgers each refrained from signing any nine-figure pitchers until the 2023-24 offseason, when they signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and traded for Tyler Glasnow. The Braves appear on this list in 2018 and 2019, the first two years of seven consecutive playoff trips, and they haven’t signed any big pitchers, either, even losing Max Fried in free agency this past winter. The Rays, of course, don’t venture into free agency at a high price point.
Now those latter three organizations are known for their pitching development. The Orioles’ initial success has been fueled primarily by their hitting development, although even that’s a little unfair, as Bradish and Rodriguez (two pitchers who came up through their system) were good until their injuries. But it seems fair to suggest that Baltimore will need some further development from pitchers such as Povich or Chayce McDermott, let alone better returns from Bradish and Rodriguez.
The final conclusion here: It would be pretty unprecedented for the Orioles to suddenly fall apart given their youth, their level of success in 2023 and 2024 and the evaluation of those prospects just reaching the majors or still in the pipeline. Of course, sometimes those evaluations are wrong. They have a lot of pitching injuries to overcome, and that’s tough for any team, unless you’re named the Dodgers. The unwillingness to spend bigger this past offseason certainly looms as a dark cloud over this bad start.
But that’s all it likely is: a bad start. For now.
College football’s championship weekend delivered a mix of compelling drama and blowouts.
In Atlanta, Georgia dominated Alabama and won the SEC for a second year in a row. The Bulldogs held the Tide to 209 total yards and locked up a first-round bye. UGA, the No. 3 seed, will play the winner of the matchup of No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Tulane in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
It was a similar story in the Big 12 where Texas Tech broke open the game with BYU in the second half. The Red Raiders forced four turnovers in the 34-7 win. Texas Tech is the No. 4 seed and will face either No. 5 Oregon or No. 12 James Madison in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
The real drama was reserved for the Big Ten and ACC championships. Indiana won its first conference title since 1967 and took down No. 1 Ohio State. The Hoosiers will be the No. 1 seed while the Buckeyes fell just one spot to No. 2 The undefeated Hoosiers will have their first playoff game at the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential against the winner of the No. 8 Oklahoma-No. 9 Alabama matchup. Ohio State faces the winner of No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
Duke‘s upset of Virginia in the ACC title game opened the door for two Group of 5 teams — Tulane (which won the American) and James Madison (Sun Belt winner).
After months of rankings, seedings and countless debates, we have a 12-team bracket that brings about plenty of enticing questions and intriguing possibilities.
Can Oregon, Indiana, Texas A&M or Texas Tech bring home its first national title? Can Ohio State repeat? Will a Group of 5 team get its first-ever CFP win?
Here are our full picks for the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Andrea Adelson
First round
Oregon 55, JMU 13
Bama 20, Oklahoma 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Quarterfinals
Oregon 35, Texas Tech 30
Indiana 30, Alabama 20
Georgia 40, Ole Miss 24
Ohio State 24, Miami 21
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 35, Oregon 31
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Kyle Bonagura
First round
Oregon 49, James Madison 24
Texas A&M 31, Miami 24
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 24
Alabama 31, Oklahoma 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 28, Oregon 27
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 14
Indiana 35, Alabama 27
Semifinals
Ohio State 24, Georgia 17
Indiana 28, Texas Tech 24
National title game
Indiana 17, Ohio State 10
Bill Connelly
First round
Oregon 41, James Madison 24
Oklahoma 27, Alabama 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 20
Texas A&M 31, Miami 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 38, Oregon 34
Indiana 30, Oklahoma 7
Georgia 27, Ole Miss 23
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 13
Semifinals
Texas Tech 27, Indiana 23
Georgia 17, Ohio State 16
National title game
Texas Tech 28, Georgia 20
David Hale
First round
Oregon 35, JMU 13
Ole Miss 48, Tulane 24
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 10
Miami 27, Texas A&M 21
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 21
Indiana 20, Alabama 10
Georgia 30, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 34, Miami 24
Semifinals
Indiana 30, Texas Tech 28
Georgia 27, Ohio State 24
National title game
Georgia 24, Indiana 20
Eli Lederman
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 20
Alabama 21, Oklahoma 10
Texas A&M 38, Miami 31
Quarterfinals
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 17
Indiana 23, Alabama 10
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 30
Ohio State 30, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Oregon 17
Georgia 27, Ohio State 20
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 17
Max Olson
First round
Oregon 34, James Madison 17
Alabama 13, Oklahoma 10
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 14
Texas A&M 27, Miami 24
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 27, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 17
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 31
Ohio State 27, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 17, Texas Tech 16
Georgia 35, Ohio State 31
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 20
Adam Rittenberg
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 16
Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
National title game
Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Mark Schlabach
First round
Oregon 51, JMU 17
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 14
Ole Miss 42, Tulane 20
Miami 28, Texas A&M 20
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 35, Oregon 31
Indiana 31, Alabama 14
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 28
Ohio State 24, Miami 17
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 42, Texas Tech 38
National title game
Indiana 24, Ohio State 20
Jake Trotter
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Oklahoma 17, Alabama 16
Ole Miss 30, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 23
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 25, Oregon 17
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 13
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 14
Ohio State 21, Miami 13
Semifinals
Indiana 19, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 16, Georgia 14
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Paolo Uggetti
First round
Oklahoma 21, Alabama 17
Oregon 38, JMU 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 21
Quarterfinals
Indiana 34, Oklahoma 20
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 21
Georgia 21, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 23, Oregon 20
Georgia 24, Ohio State 17
National title game
Indiana 21, Georgia 17
Dave Wilson
First round
Oregon 44, James Madison 13
Texas A&M 27, Miami 17
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 24
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 17
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 20
Georgia 44, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 21, Texas A&M 20
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 10
Semifinals
Georgia 27, Ohio State 17
Indiana 24, Texas Tech 17
National title game
Georgia, 17, Indiana 14
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Bill Connelly
Championship Week came and went with one last burst of uncertainty. The politicking is mercifully over. The bracket is set for the second 12-team College Football Playoff, and it is an incredible mix of stalwarts and new blood.
Five teams from last year’s field return. Four of the five teams with the most CFP appearances — Alabama (ninth appearance), Ohio State (seventh), Georgia (fifth), Oklahoma (fifth) — are here, too.
But the No. 1 seed is an Indiana team that just won its first Big Ten title in 58 years and had, until earlier this year, lost more games than any other program in the history of college football. No. 4 seed Texas Tech has never finished in the top 10 and just won its first outright conference title since 1955 (when it was in the Border Conference). No. 6 seed Ole Miss has its best record in 63 years, and No. 7 Texas A&M has its best record in 34 years.
Miami, potentially looking at its first top-10 season in 22 years, eked out a bid. Tulane is here! The Green Wave are on their best run since the 1930s! James Madison is here, too! The Dukes were in FCS four years ago!
New blood, bluebloods, great offenses, great defenses. The stakes are set. Let’s talk about why each playoff team will — or won’t — win the national title.
All times Eastern.
Title odds, per SP+: 23.5% (No. 2 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Oklahoma-Alabama winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: No known weakness. Are you a “defense wins championships” person? Indiana ranks second in defensive SP+, third in points allowed per drive and sixth in success rate* allowed. The Hoosiers just held Ohio State to its lowest point total in 18 games. Do you like defensive disruption? They’re second in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and seventh in sack rate.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
Need to know that your title pick has a QB it can count on in big moments? Fernando Mendoza is third in Total QBR and is, if betting odds are to be believed (and they usually are), the Heisman favorite by a large margin. And in Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., he has maybe the most elite receiving duo in the country outside of Columbus. Does it help to know what a team can ground-and-pound when necessary, or stop its opponent from doing the same? IU’s offense ranks fourth in rushing success rate and 17th in yards per carry (not including sacks); its defense ranks fourth and 12th, respectively, in the same categories.
Third downs are important — what about those? Indiana is first nationally in third-down conversion rate (55.8%) and second on third-down conversion rate allowed (28.1%).
Have they come through away from home? Yeah, I’d say winning at Iowa City and Eugene probably qualifies.
There’s a reason why Indiana is the last unbeaten team standing. This team has aced every test it has been given in 2025.
Why they won’t: Random big-play issues. When you allow just 4.6 yards per play and 0.9 points per drive, you don’t have a serious issue with big plays. But a few teams did still have some success creating chunk plays.
Old Dominion scored on touchdown runs of 78 and 75 yards. Illinois hit on a 59-yard TD pass. Penn State had a 59-yard run and 43-yard pass. Kennesaw State had three completions of 30-plus yards. Hell, 98 of Ohio State’s 322 yards came on two completions (though one was a fruitless end-of-game Hail Mary), as did 93 of Maryland’s 293 yards. Even if it’s not a season-long issue, there are plenty of ultra-explosive offenses in this playoff field, and a couple of glitches could become extremely costly.
Title odds, per SP+: 28.6% (No. 1 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Texas A&M-Miami (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They’re Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the defending champions, they have at least two of the five or so best players in the sport (receiver Jeremiah Smith, safety Caleb Downs), their quarterback (Julian Sayin) has the highest Total QBR of any playoff QB, their offense ranks fourth in points per drive (despite having played four games against top-20 defenses, per SP+), and their defense ranks first in defensive SP+ and second in points per drive and yards per play.
They have all the components you could ask for, and despite Saturday night’s loss to Indiana, they enter this year’s CFP with better form and fewer question marks. And hell, after 11 straight comfortable wins, even the loss might be beneficial from the standpoints of focus and motivation. This is the shortest “why they will win it” section in this entire piece, but it’s also the most definitive. We know how good they are.
Why they won’t: Cautious programming. Against the best defense he has faced in his footballing life, Sayin completed 21 of 29 passes for 258 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Granted, those numbers were boosted by the late Hail Mary completion, but he mostly kept the ball out of harm’s way, and in nearly his first genuinely high-consequence drive all season, he drove the Buckeyes 70 yards inside the Indiana 5 in the third quarter and 81 yards inside the 10 in the fourth.
Sayin came up just short on a fourth-down QB sneak on the former drive, however, which evidently prompted Ryan Day to go shockingly conservative on the latter. On fourth-and-1 from the 9, Day elected to attempt a game-tying field goal, one that, even had Jayden Fielding made it, would have given the Hoosiers ample time to drive down for a field goal of their own. Fielding missed it. Ball don’t lie.
Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline have played it safe with Sayin for most of the season, easing him in, dialing up mostly quick passes and programming him to throw the ball away if he doesn’t see what he wants. When you have a star-studded receiving corps and an incredible defense backing you up, that makes sense. But you might need to dial the risk factor up in big moments, and it sure felt like Ohio State failed in that regard Saturday night. Will they put their faith in Sayin when it matters the most? Will he back up the faith if they do?
Title odds, per SP+: 9.8% (No. 4 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Ole Miss-Tulane winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They’re mean again. Georgia was maddening to watch early this season. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs almost seemed to come out without a game plan, playing things as vanilla as possible, taking some shots from the opponent — and frequently falling behind into the second half — before rallying. It worked, aside from a loss to Alabama, but it made for some underwhelming performances (and undue stress for fans).
Over the past four games, however, the defense has locked in, allowing a paltry 7.3 points per game, 4.3 yards per play and 2.6 yards per carry, not including sacks. The Dawgs have forced three-and-outs 41% of the time in this span (10th nationally), and they’ve allowed touchdowns on just 17% of red zone trips (second).
In Saturday’s SEC championship game, a 28-7 win over Alabama, the Dawgs painted their masterpiece. They allowed just 209 total yards (3.8 per play), including just 20 non-sack rushing yards. On Bama’s first eight possessions, the Tide punted seven times, turned the ball over once and finished just one drive in Georgia territory. They finally moved the ball late but never got closer than 14 points.
After some listless play early on, Georgia is defending as well as it has since the 2022 season, its last national title year.
Why they won’t: A lack of big plays. Despite having faced a schedule featuring five top-20 defenses (per SP+), Georgia’s overall offensive numbers have been solid. It is 14th in offensive SP+, 23rd in points per drive and 22nd in success rate. The run game probably hasn’t helped as much as Smart would prefer, but short, quick passing has bridged the efficiency gap, and the Dawgs have scored at least 28 points nine times. That’s more than enough with the way the defense is playing.
While efficiency levels have been solid, Georgia struggles to create chunk plays. The Dawgs rank 130th in yards per successful play; quarterback Gunner Stockton averages just 10.7 yards per completion, and that sinks to 9.5 per completion against top-20 defenses. He almost never puts the ball in harm’s way, but safety comes with a price, and UGA is not built to move the ball quickly and aggressively if (or when) the need arises.
Title odds, per SP+: 20.9% (No. 3 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Oregon-James Madison winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They have the best front six in the country. Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the nation. Fellow linebacker Ben Roberts (two interceptions and a pass breakup) was the Big 12 championship game’s MVP. David Bailey is second in the nation in sacks and third in TFLs. Romello Height is 16th in sacks. And despite losing Skyler Gill-Howard to a midseason injury, tackles Lee Hunter and Anthony Holmes Jr. have prevented any semblance of a drop-off in the middle.
The secondary is good, too, but the front six has been transcendent in Lubbock. The Red Raiders rank third nationally in success rate allowed (31.3%), third in yards allowed per play (4.0) and first in yards allowed per carry, not including sacks (3.3). They’ve allowed more than two offensive touchdowns just once all year (to Kansas State in a game they still won by 23), and they’ve allowed less than 4.0 yards per play eight times in 13 games. Over the previous 15 seasons, Tech’s average defensive SP+ ranking was 83.0; thanks to first-year coordinator Shiel Wood and a transformational transfer class, the Red Raiders enter their first CFP ranked fourth. And since a 26-22 loss to Arizona State — suffered without starting quarterback Behren Morton — the offense has averaged 40.8 points per game. This band of pirates is playing utterly merciless ball at the moment.
Why they won’t: Red zone offense. Tech’s offensive numbers have been good, especially considering Morton was in and out of the lineup in the first two months. The Red Raiders are 15th in points per drive, and they can lean heavily into whatever opponents can’t stop. Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams grind out 145 rushing yards per game (5.5 per carry), and four receivers — all 6-foot-2 or taller — have caught between 46 and 55 passes.
They’ve scored TDs on just 56% of red zone trips, however, which is 101st in the nation. Against three top-20 defenses (Utah, plus BYU twice), the Red Raiders turned 14 trips into just five TDs (36%). By settling for field goal attempts, they let BYU hang around into the second half of both their meetings despite total defensive domination, and the level of competition will only rise from here.
Title odds, per SP+: 6.8% (No. 5 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 12 James Madison (Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Big plays and three-and-outs. Oregon has gained at least 20 yards on 10.4% of its snaps this season, the most in the country. The Ducks have also allowed gains of at least 20 yards on 3.3% of their snaps, the least in the country. They have gone three-and-out just 15.3% of the time (fourth) while forcing three-and-outs 42% of the time (fifth). It is, to say the least, difficult to beat a team that is pummeling you in both the efficiency and explosiveness departments.
Flexibility is the name of the game for Dan Lanning’s Ducks in 2025. For the third straight season, with a third different starting quarterback, they have played beautifully efficient offense: They rank fifth nationally in offensive success rate (they were seventh in 2024 and first in 2023). They’re also in the overall SP+ top four for the third straight year. This year, however, the defense has caught up to the offense. They’re fifth in defensive SP+, their highest ranking since 1958, and while they’ve topped 34 points seven times, they’ve also won Big Ten rock fights with scores of 18-16 and 21-7. You need to have a lot of arrows in the proverbial quiver to work through the CFP, and while Oregon has been really good for a while, it feels like the Ducks have more arrows than ever.
Why they won’t: More disruption needed. As effective as the defense has been, the Ducks haven’t been great at forcing the issue. They rank 98th in stuff rate and 47th in sack rate. They force a lot of passing downs — which I define as second-and-8 or more and third- or fourth-and-5 or more — but they rank 47th in passing-down success rate allowed, and if you can work the ball into the red zone, you’re probably scoring seven points: Oregon’s 75.0% red zone TD rate allowed ranks 129th.
Against defenses without disruption, good offenses are consistent enough to thrive. Against the two top-15 offenses they’ve faced (Indiana and USC), the Ducks allowed 28.5 points per game and 5.1 yards per play — not terrible averages, but not dominant either.
Title odds, per SP+: 4.6% (No. 6 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 11 Tulane (Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Vengeance (and great passing). Now that the weeks of innuendo and will-he-or-won’t-he questions are over, Ole Miss will head into its first CFP without Lane Kiffin but with most of the rest of the coaching staff. And while the Rebels aren’t the title favorites by any means, they’re capable of beating any team they play, especially if Kiffin’s departure produces a useful chip-on-the-shoulder effect.
The Rebels’ defense regressed from last year’s level, but it defends the pass well and has allowed more than 26 points only twice. When you almost never score fewer than 26 points (also twice all year), that puts you in a pretty good place. Ole Miss hogs the ball and wears opponents down with a solid but unspectacular run game (74th in yards per carry, not including sacks), and when it’s time for Trinidad Chambliss to pass, he often does something great. Chambliss is fifth in Total QBR, the Rebs are sixth in passing success rate and eighth in yards per dropback, and 23.1% of their completions have gained at least 20 yards (fourth). He rarely faces pressure — often because of good downs and distances — and is able to keep his eyes downfield quite a bit. Kewan Lacy and the run game are persistent, but the pass is why the Rebels are here.
Why they won’t: Run defense. The pass defense may be sound, but Ole Miss has been gashed on the ground at times. Not including sacks, the Rebels allow 5.0 yards per carry (83rd). Five opponents produced at least a 47% rushing success rate against them, including the only team to beat them (Georgia) and three that nearly pulled upsets (Kentucky, Washington State and Arkansas). Tackles Will Echoles and Zxavian Harris can both create negative plays, and not every CFP team has a great run game, but enough do for this to become a serious problem.
(One other thing to track, whether it’s a fatal flaw or not: How does new coach Pete Golding handle fourth-down decision-making? Kiffin has been famously aggressive on fourth downs through the years, and Ole Miss has scored 79 points after fourth-down conversions this season while allowing only three points after turnovers on downs. That’s some serious profit, and it could cost the Rebels if Golding chooses to be more conservative.)
Title odds, per SP+: 2.2% (No. 7 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 10 Miami (Dec. 20, noon, ABC)
Why they will win it all: Leverage. On offense, A&M brilliantly applies both horizontal and vertical leverage in the passing game, using speedsters KC Concepcion and Mario Craver to stretch defenses wide and deep threat Ashton Bethel-Roman and tight ends Theo Melin Öhrström and Nate Boerkircher to stretch them vertically. Once defenses are properly stressed, run lanes begin to open up for running back Rueben Owens II. At his best, quarterback Marcel Reed fires the ball quickly to all these different weapons and provides a solid run threat as well. The Aggies have topped 40 points seven times.
On defense, A&M leverages opponents into passing downs and tees off. Led by Cashius Howell (11.5 sacks), the Aggies rank first nationally in sack rate, and they are nearly impossible to beat on third downs: 73% of opponents’ third downs have required at least 7 yards (first), and A&M has allowed conversions on only 22% (also first). They also force three-and-outs 41% of the time (seventh). Attack, attack, attack.
Why they won’t: They may have peaked early. Following their 38-17 win at Missouri in Week 11, the Aggies proceeded to underachieve against SP+ projections by 20.9 points per game in their final three. Part of that average comes from showing mercy to an outmanned Samford, but they needed a huge second-half comeback to beat 4-8 South Carolina, and they got knocked out in the second half at Texas.
The Aggies’ run game isn’t contributing as much, and Reed is facing more pressure (35.6% pressure rate over the past three games), taking more sacks and throwing more interceptions — two each against South Carolina and Texas. And while their third-down conversion rate was 43.1% over their first nine games, it was 24.0% against the Gamecocks and Longhorns.
Defensively, glitches that have been problematic all season have become downright worrisome:
South Carolina had gains of 80 and 50 yards, and Texas had gains of 54, 48, 35 and 30. A&M now ranks 135th (out of 136) in yards allowed per successful play (14.4) and 127th in rushing yards allowed after contact (3.3). Defensive aggression risks big-play breakdowns, and things didn’t trend well in November. Maybe some rest will help?
Title odds, per SP+: 1.0% (No. 9 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 9 Alabama (Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC)
Why they will win it all: The coolest defense in the country. What if you could combine Texas A&M’s aggression with solid big-play prevention? You can! OU does just about every week. The Sooners rank second in success rate allowed (first against the run), third in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), third in sack rate and fourth in three-and-out rate, but they’re also allowing a much more palatable 12.7 yards per successful play (99th, but far ahead of A&M), and they’ve allowed 17 or fewer points eight times.
Linemen Taylor Wein and Gracen Halton have combined for 24 tackles for loss and 22 run stops, and their best lineman, R Mason Thomas, could be close to healthy by the time the playoff rolls around. Meanwhile, the secondary more than carries its weight: Corners Courtland Guillory and Eli Bowen have allowed just a 38% completion rate in coverage with two interceptions, 12 breakups and just two touchdowns allowed.
OU’s offense isn’t very good (we’ll get to that), but the Sooners know themselves as well as anyone in this field. The defense does most of the heavy lifting, and when the offense is given an opportunity, it takes advantage: The Sooners score TDs on 72% of red zone trips (16th). They’ve won in Knoxville and Tuscaloosa, and their reward for that is a first-ever playoff home game. Sooners fans cheered on the move to the SEC because they wanted bigger home games, and here comes the biggest one imaginable. And against an Alabama team the Sooners know they can beat.
Why they won’t: The Sooners can’t score. This seems pretty important. Even with excellent red zone execution, the Sooners rank 87th in success rate (111th rushing), 89th in points per drive and 95th in yards per play. Dreadful stuff.
Quarterback John Mateer‘s numbers were obviously impacted by his early-season hand injury (and how quickly he attempted to come back from it), but downfield passing has been an issue all season. He has completed 30% of passes 20 or more yards downfield, 104th among QBR-eligible QBs. The run game has been dreadful: The Sooners have averaged 3.3 yards per carry over the past three games. Playing well in the red zone is important, but they probably won’t create enough red zone chances to make a major run.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.7% (No. 10 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 8 Oklahoma (Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC)
Why they will win it all: They’re battle tested. In retrospect, we know Alabama basically clinched its playoff spot in October; in consecutive weeks, the Crimson Tide beat Georgia (24-21), Vanderbilt (30-14), Missouri (27-24) and Tennessee (37-20). They were great early against Georgia, in the middle against Mizzou and late against Vandy, and it looked like all the pieces had come together against the Vols. Ty Simpson was my Heisman points race leader into November, and even with a recent downturn, he has still produced great season stats: 3,268 passing yards, 64% completion rate, 26-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. Their legs looked a little weary down the stretch, but we know they’re capable of producing form that can beat anyone.
Well, the offense looked weary down the stretch. The defense keeps improving. Against four top-15 offenses (per SP+), the Tide allowed just 20.8 points per game, and they gave up fewer yards per play with each contest — 6.7 against Georgia the first time, then 6.2 against Vandy, then 5.3 against Tennessee, then 4.4 against Georgia the second time. Edge rusher Yhonzae Pierre (11.5 TFLs, six sacks) is one of the SEC’s best playmakers, and safety Bray Hubbard (four interceptions, six breakups) punishes mistakes in the back. The offense won’t have to produce a ton for the Tide to win some playoff games.
Why they won’t: They last looked like a playoff team in Week 8. That’s kind of an issue, isn’t it? Thanks primarily to a fading offense, the Tide have underachieved against SP+ projections in four of their past six games, falling from sixth (after the Vandy game) to 13th in SP+ in the process. The run game has never kicked in — RB Jam Miller hasn’t been able to stay healthy (and hasn’t been great even when he’s available) — and carrying the weight of the offense seemed to wear Simpson down: His Total QBR was 82.7 through seven games, 74.5 over the next four and 54.0 over the past two.
Simpson averaged a ghastly 3.7 yards per dropback against Auburn and Georgia, and both his timing in the pocket and his timing with receivers has been terribly off. Maybe a week off will help, but we haven’t seen Bama’s best for a while — and we certainly didn’t see it the last time the Tide played OU.
Title odds, per SP+: 1.7% (No. 8 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 7 Texas A&M (Dec. 20, noon, ABC)
Why they will win it all: Football is an efficiency game. If you’re winning more plays than your opponent, you can win any game you play, and few win more plays than Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes. They’re 10th in success rate (49.6%) and eighth in success rate allowed (34.5%); Indiana and Ohio State are the only other teams to rank in the top 10 in both categories.
Miami found balance this season. The Hurricanes were first in offensive SP+ in 2024 thanks to Cam Ward and the rest, but the Hurricanes were a dismal 52nd on defense, allowing 37.3 points per game in three losses and even giving up 30-plus in four wins. The offense predictably regressed after Ward’s departure, but Carson Beck, Malachi Toney & Co. are still 16th in offensive SP+, and the defense has carried a far heavier load thanks to a brilliant new coordinator (Corey Hetherman), a junior-year breakthrough from star lineman Rueben Bain Jr. and a number of transfer hits — linebacker Mohamed Toure is a dynamo in the middle, and a number of new DBs (safeties Jakobe Thomas and Zechariah Poyser, corners Keionte Scott and Xavier Lucas) have been stellar.
The Canes have so many more paths to victory now: The offense has scored 34 or more seven times, and the defense has allowed 12 or fewer seven times.
Why they won’t: Individual games are decided by big plays and turnovers (and close-and-late situations). In two losses, the Hurricanes had as many turnovers (six) as 20-yard gains. Beck threw six picks while averaging just 10.7 yards per completion. Turnover risk without any reward will doom you, efficiency or no efficiency.
Cristobal also has so much to prove in close games. Miami is 2-2 in one-score finishes this year, and a close win — in Week 1 against Notre Dame — got the Hurricanes into the playoff field. But Cristobal’s old, overly conservative tendencies backfired in both losses. Down three late against Louisville, the Canes played for a field goal instead of a touchdown; tied with 25 seconds (and a timeout) left against SMU, they kneeled the ball out and played for overtime. They lost both times. Winning four playoff games, including one in the first round against A&M (4-0 in one-score games), will require nailing late-game circumstances, and I wish we had more evidence that Miami is capable of that.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.02% (No. 12 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 6 Ole Miss (Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Turnovers and TFLs. Tulane broke through with 12 wins and a Cotton Bowl victory in 2022, and the Green Wave have remained a Group of 5 contender ever since. After enjoying double-digit wins in just one season from 1935 to 2021, they’ve done it three times in the past four seasons.
Second-year coach Jon Sumrall didn’t like his team very much this October: After a tighter-than-necessary win over East Carolina, he told ESPN’s Harry Lyles, “We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games, and I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature.” They would get blown out by UTSA a couple of games later.
Since the start of November, however, the defense has surged. The Green Wave rank sixth in turnover rate (4.0%) and 18th in TFLs per game (7.0) in that span, and they’re allowing just 4.0 yards per carry, not including sacks (22nd). They force loads of passing downs and pounce on whatever mistakes the opposing quarterback makes, while Jake Retzlaff and the offense do lots of whatever the defense can’t stop. They forced five turnovers in Friday’s American championship game against North Texas, returning one for a touchdown, and against a UNT defense that is poor against the run, they simply rushed their way to a 34-21 win.
Why they won’t: You probably need to be elite at something. Tulane looks more like a power conference team than almost any in the Group of 5, and it beat both Northwestern and Duke in nonconference play. Sumrall teams will always problem-solve beautifully, even if they have to move to Plan B or Plan C. There’s a reason Sumrall has won three conference titles in four years as a head coach, and there’s a reason Florida hired him. But the Green Wave don’t have any elite traits this season, and when you have nothing you know you can lean on, sometimes not even Plan C will uncover an answer.
Tulane’s two losses this season were blowouts. Ole Miss (forgivable) and UTSA (less so) outscored them by a combined 93-36 and outgained them by a combined 355 yards. They can win a tight game against just about anyone, but if/when they lose in the CFP, it might not be close. And scaring Ole Miss in a first-round rematch will require a far better performance, especially from Retzlaff.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.2% (No. 11 favorite)
First-round opponent: No. 5 Oregon (Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: What, like it’s hard? JMU walked through the FBS door four years ago and immediately started acting like it owns the place. The Dukes are 40-10 in the FBS, and four of those losses came in 2024, as they were transitioning from Curt Cignetti to Bob Chesney. Once Chesney got his footing, so did the Dukes. They’re back in the SP+ top 25 for the second time in three seasons, and their only loss was at Louisville in September. They allowed the Cardinals just 264 total yards, and the game was tied in the fourth quarter until it turned on a fumble.
The Dukes look the part. JMU’s offense is top-30 in most key categories; it can play with high efficiency at times, and when it doesn’t, it bails itself out with big plays like Wayne Knight‘s 73-yard touchdown run Friday night in the Sun Belt championship game.
0:36
Wayne Knight bursts through for a 73-yard JMU TD
Wayne Knight breaks a few tackles on his way to a 73-yard rushing touchdown for James Madison.
The defense is simply dynamite. The Dukes rank first in success rate allowed (29%) and fourth in yards allowed per play (4.1). Colin Hitschler’s defense attacks nonstop, knowing that even if it gives up a big play or two, the flood of three-and-outs and turnovers will balance that out. Redshirt freshman Sahir West leads the team with 14 TFLs — he had 5.5 TFLs and three sacks against Troy on Friday — but eight different Dukes have at least five TFLs, and their trio of cornerbacks in Justin Eaglin, Elijah Culp and DJ Barksdale (slot) compares well to any in the CFP.
Why they won’t: You probably can’t rely on big plays in the CFP. Knight has nine rushes of at least 30 yards (more than 91 FBS teams) and quarterback Alonza Barnett III has added seven rushes of 20-plus yards while completing 17 passes of 30-plus. Chunk plays are fabulous bailouts, but it’s a lot harder to generate those against elite defenses. Against the two SP+ top-30 defenses the Dukes faced (Louisville and Washington State), they averaged just 19 points at 4.5 yards per play. Winning a CFP game (or games) will require dynamite defensive play, and while JMU could deliver that, there is minimal margin for error there. Can they hold Oregon to, say, 24 or fewer points?
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