
Are the Orioles blowing their contention window? What we can learn from other stacked young teams
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David SchoenfieldMay 7, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Let’s be clear: We are not burying the Baltimore Orioles just yet. The season is young, and there is plenty of time for them to heat up and get back into the playoff race. It’s not like any team has pulled away in the American League East, and the six-team playoff field in each league makes it that much easier to squeeze into the postseason anyway.
Still, the Orioles are supposed to be at their height of contention, fighting for best-team-in-baseball status, not battling the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels for the worst record in the AL, as is currently the case.
The Orioles had ESPN’s top-ranked farm system in 2022 and 2023 and parlayed that into an impressive 101-win season and division title in 2023. They again had the top-ranked farm system entering 2024, and while last year’s 91-win season was a minor letdown, it at least resulted in another trip to the playoffs. In each of those years, they had the top overall prospect: Adley Rutschman (2022), Gunnar Henderson (2023) and Jackson Holliday (2024). Entering the 2025 campaign, their farm system dropped to No. 14 since a lot of their top prospects have now graduated to the majors.
Baltimore also had another reason for optimism in new owner David Rubenstein, a Baltimore native and avowed Orioles fan who is worth an estimated $3.7 billion. Fans hoped he might pull the team into a higher payroll class as the franchise chased its first World Series appearance and championship since 1983.
Instead, the Orioles are 13-21, with a rotation that ranks last in the AL in with a 5.75 ERA, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins overall, and an offense that’s tied for 21st in the majors in OPS and ranks 23rd in runs per game. After averaging 4.98 runs per game in 2023 and 4.85 in 2024, the O’s are averaging just 3.82 in 2025 (even after the left-field fence was moved back at Camden Yards). One game in late April featured a lineup with Ramon Laureano hitting leadoff, Ramon Urias batting cleanup and Gary Sanchez and Dylan Carlson hitting fifth and sixth. That was not how this was supposed to look.
What has happened here? Would it be unusual for a team to be where the Orioles were and suddenly fall apart? To investigate this, we found teams that matched where the Orioles stood entering 2024 — coming off a playoff season while also possessing a top farm system the following spring. That would seem to be the perfect storm for a highly competitive contention window: a good team with more young talent on the way.
Going back to 2000, we found all the teams that (1) had made the playoffs and (2) began the next season with a top-three-ranked farm system, according to either Baseball America (since 2001) or ESPN (since 2012). Including the 2023 Orioles, this provided a list of 25 teams. We then tracked each team’s performance over the next three seasons; for the 2023 Orioles, this would so far include only the 2024 season.
Here are those 25 teams, as well as their records the following three seasons:
Our overall findings: Not only did these teams fare exceptionally well, they rarely were bad — and often were great.
Out of 71 future seasons that have been completed in each team’s immediate three-year window, these teams made the playoffs 48 times — 68% of the time, including the Orioles in 2024. Those odds have been even higher in recent seasons with the expanded playoff field; the first three teams on the list — the 2000 White Sox, 2001 Seattle Mariners and 2001 Houston Astros — made just one playoff appearance out of nine seasons between them.
There were only eight losing seasons out of 71. Leaving aside 2020, 42 teams out of a possible 67 seasons won at least 90 games (63%), and 14 (21%) won at least 100.
Let’s dig deeper and compare the 2023 Orioles — and their ensuing three-year contention window — more specifically to the five teams in our study that had a No. 1-ranked farm system.
Top five prospects in 2001: Jon Rauch, Joe Borchard, Joe Crede, Matt Ginter, Dan Wright
Others of note: Aaron Rowand
Next three seasons: 83-79, 81-81, 86-76 (no playoff appearances)
This is an interesting team because another element of the perfect storm for contention would be the younger the playoff team, the better. Combining the average age of the position player group and the pitchers from Baseball-Reference (which adjusts those figures for playing time), the White Sox were the second-youngest team on the list, behind only the 2022 Cleveland Guardians. And yet, Chicago scuffled along the next three seasons — and got very little from that prospect group.
The White Sox did break through in 2005, however, winning the World Series, with Crede and Rowand both starters on that team. Rauch got injured but was traded for Carl Everett, another starter on the 2005 team.
How the Orioles compare: The 2023 Orioles were one of the younger teams on the list, tied for fifth youngest. This was a large part of the optimism around them, especially with those three top overall prospects providing the foundation. The Orioles were always thinner on pitching prospects, however, and that’s been a problem in 2025 as injuries in the rotation have piled up.
Of course, the expectation this past winter was that Rubenstein and general manager Mike Elias might go after a top starting pitcher — similar to the previous offseason, when Elias traded two prospects for a legitimate ace in Corbin Burnes. The Orioles then acquired Zach Eflin during the season. But Burnes was just a one-year rental and signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, while Eflin is currently sidelined with a lat strain. Young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been out all season with an elbow issue, and Kyle Bradish, the team’s top starter in 2023, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The problem hasn’t just been the injuries but the stopgaps: 41-year-old Charlie Morton is 0-6 with a 9.76 ERA, 37-year-old Kyle Gibson is 0-1 with a 14.09 ERA in two starts and Cade Povich is 1-2 with a 5.16 ERA.
Top five prospects in 2013: Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Kolten Wong
Others of note: Michael Wacha, Tommy Pham
Next three seasons: 97-65, 90-72, 100-62 (three playoff appearances)
The Cardinals reached the World Series in 2013 (losing to the Boston Red Sox) and had the best record in the National League in 2015 before losing to the Chicago Cubs in the division series. The group of prospects helped supplement what had been more of a veteran team in 2012. Miller joined the rotation in 2013 and won 25 games in two seasons then was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Jason Heyward. Martinez spent a year in the bullpen and became an All-Star starter in 2015 and 2017. Rosenthal racked up 93 saves in 2014-15. Wong was a solid regular, and Wacha was the playoff hero in 2013. Taveras, the star prospect of the group, died in a car accident after the 2014 season.
How the Orioles compare: The Cardinals were built from 2012 to 2015 around their starting rotation — Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Wacha, Miller and Martinez. When Wainwright got hurt in 2015, they still had the depth to pick up the slack. They traded for John Lackey, and he went 13-10 with 5.8 WAR and a 2.77 ERA in 2015. Miller was used to acquire Heyward, who posted 7.0 WAR in 2015 (although then left as a free agent).
In other words, it was a completely different philosophy than the one Baltimore is using. The Cardinals believed they could fill in the gaps on the position player side of things — and they did do that through 2015. (Although once Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday declined, they missed the playoffs for three straight years starting in 2016.)
The Orioles are following the lead of the Cubs and Astros, who built World Series winners in 2016 and 2017 around a core of position players. The Cubs supplemented that group with free agent signings Jon Lester and Lackey plus two astute trades for Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks. The Astros traded for Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke to help build their dynasty.
Elias was part of that Houston front office, and while the Burnes trade worked out for his one season in Baltimore and Eflin pitched well last season after the trade (2.60 ERA in nine starts), it’s fair to say Elias hasn’t landed a starter with the multiyear impact of a Lester, Hendricks, Verlander or Cole.
Top five prospects in 2014: Gregory Polanco, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Nick Kingham
Others of note: Josh Bell, Clay Holmes, Adam Frazier
Next three seasons: 88-74, 98-64, 78-84 (two playoff appearances)
The Pirates had a strong three-year window from 2013 to 2015 with three straight postseason trips, but they have had just one winning season since. It wasn’t so much the lack of willingness to spend on payroll but a series of bad trades and prospects who didn’t pan out. Polanco just wasn’t that good. They traded Gerrit Cole and didn’t get enough in return. They traded Glasnow, Meadows and Shane Baz to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ill-fated 2018 Chris Archer trade.
How the Orioles compare: We’re still finding out if this will be the case with some of these Orioles prospects. But the other thing that happened to the Pirates is Andrew McCutchen — their superstar during those three playoff seasons (he averaged 6.4 WAR and was the MVP winner in 2013) — didn’t keep it going. He fell to minus-0.4 WAR in 2016 and 3.1 WAR in 2017 then was traded in 2018. Starling Marte averaged 4.8 WAR during the playoff run but had a performance-enhancing drugs suspension in 2017 and wasn’t as good when he returned. Even Cole was worth just 1.5 WAR in 2016 and 2.6 in 2017 before exploding after his trade to Houston.
In other words, the Orioles need their stars to perform, and Henderson and Rutschman have just not done that so far in 2025. Henderson has just five RBIs in 27 games, and Rutschman is hitting .211/.318/.351. Jordan Westburg, an All-Star in 2024, is hitting .217/.265/.391 and is currently on the IL with a hamstring strain. Colton Cowser, last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up, played just four games before fracturing his left thumb.
If anything, this is why we probably don’t want to give up on the Orioles: They’ve gotten so little from a group that should be doing a lot more. (And those players are younger than McCutchen and Marte were, so there’s no reason they should collectively be performing this poorly.)
Top five prospects in 2016: Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Jose De Leon, Jose Peraza, Cody Bellinger
Others of note: Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler
Next three seasons: 91-71, 104-58, 106-56 (three playoff appearances)
The 2015 Dodgers were built around Clayton Kershaw and Greinke, who went a combined 35-10 with a 1.90 ERA. Their best position players were 33-year-old Adrian Gonzalez and 30-year-old Justin Turner. While they didn’t win a World Series in the next three years, they did still reach the Fall Classic twice in that span — and went on to eventually win the Series in the shortened 2020 season, with Seager, Urias, Bellinger and Buehler all playing vital roles (while Verdugo became the key player in the trade for Mookie Betts).
How the Orioles compare: The 2023 Orioles were a much younger team than the 2015 Dodgers. (Most of L.A.’s regular position players were 30-something; they had the oldest group of position players in the NL that year.) So, there isn’t much in common here. Yes, the Orioles have their version of Seager in Henderson, but do they have a Bellinger in the pipeline? Can Bradish and Rodriguez bounce back from injuries and help win a World Series, as Urias and Buehler eventually did? The Dodgers used their farm system depth to eventually trade for Betts then signed him to a long-term contract. While the Orioles have shown their willingness to make an impact trade (Burnes), they of course have shown no inclination to spend that kind of money.
The Dodgers also have been able to keep the prospects coming: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the Dodgers as the No. 1 farm system entering 2025, a remarkable assessment given where they draft every year. Even when the Orioles’ farm system ranked first in 2024, it was more about the quality at the top — Holliday, Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo and Heston Kjerstad leading the way — than the overall depth.
Top five prospects in 2020: Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, Vidal Brujan, Shane Baz
Others of note: Shane McClanahan, Xavier Edwards, Joe Ryan, Josh Lowe, Taj Bradley, Pete Fairbanks
Next three seasons: 40-20, 100-62, 86-76 (three playoff appearances)
The Rays reached the World Series in 2020, had another great season in 2021, earned a wild-card spot in 2022, returned to the playoffs with 99 wins in 2023 and finally stumbled in 2024, finishing 80-82. The 2019 Rays were a young team, tied for third youngest on our list. While that top group of prospects didn’t do much with Tampa — only Baz is still active with the organization — the Rays had so much depth in their system that they still managed to extract a lot of value. (Although they probably would like a do-over on the Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz trade in 2021.)
How the Orioles compare: The 2019 Rays would be the best direct match for the 2023 Orioles in terms of youth and roster composition and timeline. Those Rays were the culmination of a multiyear rebuilding project, just like the 2023 Orioles. Tampa Bay made five consecutive playoff appearances, the kind of results you would expect from a young team with a highly rated farm system. (And the results might have been even better if not for Franco’s off-field problems.)
One thing the Rays are not afraid to do: trade their prospects. Liberatore went to the Cardinals for Randy Arozarena; Edwards went to the Marlins for Santiago Suarez, an intriguing pitching prospect now in High-A; and Brujan brought back Jake Mangum, who is contributing to the Rays in 2025. Not all their trades have worked out, but many have.
So far, the Orioles have mostly held on to their guys. The Trevor Rogers trade with the Marlins last summer doesn’t look good right now. Rogers was bad after the trade, and he is now injured, while Kyle Stowers might be having a breakout season for Miami. Kjerstad is struggling for the Orioles, and Mayo just got called back up after going 4-for-41 with 22 strikeouts in a big league trial last year. There’s a chance neither of those two develop as they were once expected to.
Given the mostly successful track records of the teams in the study, is there a worst-case scenario for the Orioles? Here are three examples.
Farm system ranking: No. 2
Top five prospects: Ryan Anderson, Rafael Soriano, Antonio Perez, Chris Snelling, Clint Nageotte
What went wrong: The Mariners won 93 games in each of the next two seasons, although they missed the playoffs back when just four teams made it. They then collapsed to 63-99 in 2004. They were the oldest team in our study, with an average age of 31.1. So, that group aged out after a couple of years, and the prospects didn’t develop — and nearly 20 years of bad baseball ensued. Anderson, nicknamed “The Little Unit” due to his physical resemblance to Randy Johnson, got hurt and never made the majors. Soriano had three 40-save seasons — long after the Mariners traded him away. Snelling was a promising Australian outfielder who reached the majors at age 20 but couldn’t stay healthy. The Mariners also had Shin-Soo Choo in the system and traded him away for nothing.
What the Orioles can learn: The Mariners aren’t a great comparison since they were such a veteran team, but bad trades certainly didn’t help. Carlos Guillen, the starting shortstop in 2001, was traded after 2003 to the Tigers for light-hitting Ramon Santiago and went on to become a three-time All-Star with Detroit. When the Mariners faded in 2004, they traded ace Freddy Garcia to the White Sox with minimal return. Asdrubal Cabrera signed as an amateur free agent with Seattle in 2002 and was later traded away to Cleveland, where he made a couple of All-Star teams.
Moral of the story: You have to trade well. The Orioles did that in 2022, when they acquired Povich and Yennier Cano for Jorge Lopez, but they’ll need more of those wins.
Farm system ranking: No. 2
Top five prospects: Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, Mike Olt, Leonys Martin, Neil Ramirez
What went wrong: After losing in the 2011 World Series, the Rangers did return to the playoffs in 2012 but then lost a tiebreaker game to miss the playoffs in 2013. They fell to 67-95 in 2014 before making a couple of soft playoff appearances in 2015 and 2016. So, this was hardly a full-scale disaster, although they’ve had just one winning season since 2016; that was in 2023, and it happened to result in a World Series title.
This was a case where the prospects just weren’t as good as advertised. Profar was the No. 1 prospect in the game, but shoulder injuries derailed his career. Perez is still pitching, but he didn’t become a big star. Olt was a power-hitting third baseman traded with Ramirez to the Cubs in 2013 for Matt Garza, a rental pitcher. The Rangers also dealt Hendricks to the Cubs for another rental in Ryan Dempster, while Martin, Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara never had the plate discipline to become consistent hitters in the majors.
What the Orioles can learn: Don’t overrate your own prospects — or at least make sure you evaluate them accurately. The Rangers let productive veterans such as Cruz, C.J. Wilson and Mike Napoli (plus Josh Hamilton, although his career flamed out after moving on from the Rangers) leave in free agency because they believed they had prospects ready to step in . They traded Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder with the idea that Profar could take over at second, but that turned into a tough trade when Fielder had to retire due to a neck injury. They also had some bad injury luck in the rotation with Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando all getting hurt.
The Orioles will be facing a lot of similar types of decisions this offseason, with a large chunk of the roster headed to free agency, including Cedric Mullins, Eflin, Ryan O’Hearn and Gregory Soto, plus several other players on one-year deals. The owner’s checkbook might need to play a bigger role next offseason.
Farm system ranking: No. 2 Baseball America/No. 5 ESPN
Top five prospects: Xander Bogaerts, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Webster, Blake Swihart
Others in the system: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez, Matt Barnes, Manuel Margot, Brock Holt (and a bunch of others who made the playoffs)
What went wrong: This isn’t even a worst-case scenario, necessarily, although the Red Sox were the only team on our list to have two losing seasons out of the next three. (The 2022 Guardians could match that with a losing record in 2025.) Boston won the World Series with an older team in 2013 but was under .500 in 2014 and 2015. Eventually, the farm system produced another World Series title in 2018.
What the Orioles can learn: The 2013 Red Sox had David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and some other vets who had big years. By 2018, Ortiz was retired and Pedroia was injured. But Boston had come up with new stars: Betts, Bogaerts and Chris Sale (acquired for prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech). The Red Sox supplemented the new stars with two big free agents, David Price and J.D. Martinez.
The Orioles have so far failed to either extend any of their young stars or play with the big boys in free agency. They still have their main core under team control for years to come. (Rutschman would be the first to reach free agency, after the 2027 season.) But it does feel like, at some point, the Orioles might have to be more aggressive than they’ve been — unless they can figure out how to thread the needle like the Rays have done throughout the years.
All in all, the Orioles haven’t really done anything “wrong” yet — unless you count not signing a big free agent pitcher. But if you look at the most successful long-term organizations in the study, they didn’t do that, either. The Astros made trades for pitchers. The 2014 and 2015 Dodgers each refrained from signing any nine-figure pitchers until the 2023-24 offseason, when they signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and traded for Tyler Glasnow. The Braves appear on this list in 2018 and 2019, the first two years of seven consecutive playoff trips, and they haven’t signed any big pitchers, either, even losing Max Fried in free agency this past winter. The Rays, of course, don’t venture into free agency at a high price point.
Now those latter three organizations are known for their pitching development. The Orioles’ initial success has been fueled primarily by their hitting development, although even that’s a little unfair, as Bradish and Rodriguez (two pitchers who came up through their system) were good until their injuries. But it seems fair to suggest that Baltimore will need some further development from pitchers such as Povich or Chayce McDermott, let alone better returns from Bradish and Rodriguez.
The final conclusion here: It would be pretty unprecedented for the Orioles to suddenly fall apart given their youth, their level of success in 2023 and 2024 and the evaluation of those prospects just reaching the majors or still in the pipeline. Of course, sometimes those evaluations are wrong. They have a lot of pitching injuries to overcome, and that’s tough for any team, unless you’re named the Dodgers. The unwillingness to spend bigger this past offseason certainly looms as a dark cloud over this bad start.
But that’s all it likely is: a bad start. For now.
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Truck Series’ Friesen breaks pelvis, leg in crash
Published
3 hours agoon
July 30, 2025By
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Associated Press
Jul 30, 2025, 03:06 AM ET
DRUMMONDVILLE, Quebec — NASCAR Truck Series driver Stewart Friesen suffered pelvic and leg fractures in a crash, but has apparently avoided any head, neck or spine injuries, according to his wife.
Friesen was in a “tremendous amount of pain” after the crash Monday night during a Super DIRTcar Series King of the North race at Autodrome Drummond in Drummondville, Quebec, Jessica Friesen posted on social media.
“Stewart has suffered an unstable/open book pelvic fracture, meaning his pelvis is broken in two or more places, with a large hematoma on the area” she posted. “Stewart also has a fractured right leg.”
A CT scan showed no head, neck, or spine injuries, she said.
Video of the crash shows Stewart Friesen’s truck hitting an outside wall on the track, flipping up in the air and catching fire. He landed hard on the track and was hit by another truck before his truck came to rest on its wheels.
Jessica Friesen thanked the track crew for their patience and care in getting her husband out of the truck.
Stewart Friesen is expected to be transferred Wednesday to a New York hospital, Jessica Friesen said in an update posted Tuesday, where he faces multiple surgeries.
“We want to thank everyone here at the hospital in Trois-Rivières, Quebec, for the outstanding care, and several members of the racing community who have helped facilitate getting Stewart closer to home,” she posted. “The outpouring of support from all of our racing family has been overwhelming, in the best way.”
Sports
NASCAR suspends Hill 1 race for intentional crash
Published
12 hours agoon
July 30, 2025By
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Associated Press
Jul 29, 2025, 07:19 PM ET
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — NASCAR on Tuesday suspended Austin Hill for one Xfinity Series race for intentionally crashing Aric Almirola at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Richard Childress Racing said Cup Series driver Austin Dillon will replace Hill in the Xfinity Series race at Iowa this weekend.
The suspension also stripped Hill of the 21 playoff points he has earned in 2025 and prohibits him from earning points ahead of the playoffs under a new rule made before the start of the 2025 season. Hill will have to apply for a waiver to retain his playoff eligibility.
Prior to the suspension, Hill’s playoff points trailed only Connor Zilisch (29) and Justin Allgaier (22). But that count resets to zero, making his margin of error during the first playoff round virtually none.
Hill is ranked seventh in the Xfinity Series standings with three victories. He will likely lose position in the standings with the suspension, and only drivers ranked in the top 12 make the Xfinity playoffs.
Hill argued the contact with Almirola on Saturday was not intentional but NASCAR gave him a five-lap penalty. Hill went into an expletive-filled tirade after being told he was penalized.
The two were in the top-five at Indy when Almirola made contact to move Hill up the race track. Hill corrected his car and then turned left to hook Almirola in the right rear.
Almirola spun and crashed into the outside wall. Hill finished 34th and five laps down. Almirola finished 35th.
Sports
MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Division rivals eye Luis Robert
Published
18 hours agoon
July 29, 2025By
admin
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Ranking traded prospects
Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel
This week’s MLB trade deadline buzz
July 29
Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.
A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names that have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney
Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney
Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.
But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he’s allowed a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” said one evaluator. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney
Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers
Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers
Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could make a killing in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current asking prices as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney
Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney
July 28
Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel
Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.
Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge’s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees in on Bader, Slater? The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Olney
Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney
Yankees eyeing a few Bucs: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.
As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.
New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.
Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo
July 27
Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.
Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers
Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers
The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.
Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez
Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.
The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel
Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney
Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney
Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney
Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney
Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.
The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney
Completed deal tracker
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Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins
The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.
Previous deadline buzz
July 25 updates
Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney
Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.
The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.
The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.
At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.
Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez
What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney
How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.
The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.
The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney
White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers
July 24 updates
Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers
July 23 updates
Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.
The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo
A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney
How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers
Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.
The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez
July 22 updates
An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney
Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney
Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
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