Oilers unravel as ‘penalty chaos’ reigns in Game 3
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Greg Wyshynski
SUNRISE, Fla. — The Edmonton Oilers were blown out by the Florida Panthers 6-1 in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final. They took 21 penalties for 85 penalty minutes, pulled their starting goaltender, had a near line-brawl in the third period, and one of their players was irritated enough to squirt a stream from his water bottle at the Florida bench.
But despite all of this, the Oilers swore that the Panthers, considered to be the NHL’s most agitating team, didn’t get under their skin or in their heads Monday night, as Florida took a 2-1 series lead.
“No, I don’t think so. I think the game obviously got out of hand at the end there. That stuff is going to happen. You look at some of the calls and whatnot, [and] obviously some of them are frustrating,” said winger Evander Kane, who had more penalty minutes in Game 3 (16) than he had in his previous 17 playoff games combined (14).
Kane said when the Oilers tried to match the Panthers’ physicality and instigation, they were penalized, while Florida was not.
“They seem to get away with it more than we do. It’s tough to find the line. They’re doing just as much stuff as we are,” Kane said. “There seems to be a little bit more attention on our group.”
The Panthers had 14 penalties for 55 penalty minutes in the game.
After two tightly played games that left the series tied 1-1 — both of which needed overtime to be settled — Game 3 was a blowout that played right into the Panthers’ hands.
“Right away, I thought we ended up playing what Florida kind of wanted: just a little bit of a track meet, a little bit of grinding, lots of penalties. It was just penalty chaos tonight,” said Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner, who had his weakest game in weeks — including a puck over the glass delay of game penalty that resulted in Florida’s fifth goal and saw Skinner pulled at 3:27 of the third period.
The Panthers excel at agitation. For the first time in the series, Edmonton took the bait.
Kane took two penalties within 2:41 of the first period and later slashed Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe while Verhaeghe was on his stomach in the third period.
Corey Perry taunted the Panthers as “turtles” and got into a shouting match with fourth-liner Jonah Gadjovich while leaving the ice after the second period. Oilers defenseman Jake Walman had his glove stolen by A.J. Greer, a Panthers fourth-liner who deposited the glove into the bench. Walman responded by taking his water bottle and spraying a stream at Florida’s players while standing at his own bench.
“Yeah, I mean I obviously did that for a reason. I won’t go into the details. It’s just gamesmanship, I guess,” Walman said. “I’ve just got to realize there’s cameras everywhere and they see that stuff.”
With 9:31 left in regulation, Oilers center Trent Frederic went after Florida’s Sam Bennett with a cross-check that broke his own stick. He then grabbed the back of Bennett’s jersey to drag him down. A near line-brawl ensued, with Bennett landing punches on Frederic while he was on the ice being held by a linesman.
“He’s been an animal this whole playoffs,” said Panthers winger Brad Marchand of Bennett. “He’s built for this time of year. Just how competitive he is, how intense, and obviously the physicality piece.”
Marchand, after ending Game 2 in double-overtime with a breakaway goal, started the scoring in the first period, just 56 seconds into the game. He deposited a shot high into the net while Skinner wildly lunged at a puck that was no longer there.
The rest of the first period was a parade of penalties — four for both teams — that didn’t result in anything on the scoreboard until Verhaeghe ripped a shot over Skinner’s right shoulder for a power-play goal and 2-0 lead at 17:45. Edmonton’s Viktor Arvidsson was in the penalty box after goalie Sergei Bobrovsky drew a goalie interference penalty.
“We’ve got to be more disciplined than that. We know better than that. I mean eventually, they’re going to find a way. That’s a great team. We shoot ourselves in the foot a little bit there. It kind of takes the flow out of it, you know?” said Walman.
Perry cut the deficit with a power-play goal 1:40 into the second period, but Sam Reinhart scored his first of the series to reestablish the two-goal lead 1:20 later. As they have done all postseason, the Panthers quickly padded their lead with another goal: Bennett’s 14th of the playoffs, beating Skinner on a breakaway.
“It’s for the Stanley Cup, you know? … There’s not an inch out there. That’s a grown man’s game out there. It’s not for the faint of heart. Guys are putting everything on the line you know?”
Oilers defenseman Jake Walman
Skinner was chased in the third period after the Panthers’ fifth goal, which was scored on the power play by defenseman Aaron Ekblad after Skinner sailed the puck over the glass. After that, Skinner’s night was over.
Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said after the game that he hasn’t made a decision on his goaltending for Game 4, but that he didn’t think Skinner “had much chance on many of those goals” before being pulled.
Evan Rodrigues scored the Panthers’ sixth goal on the power play late in the third period, which was marred by eight misconduct penalties and a slew of other calls as Edmonton tried to send a late-game message.
“Both teams are going to stick up for each other. They care for each other. The core’s pretty much the same for both teams, the drivers of the team are the same for the last three years. They’ll always have each other’s backs,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said.
Walman said with the stakes this high, emotions were naturally going to boil over.
“It’s for the Stanley Cup, you know? … There’s not an inch out there. That’s a grown man’s game out there. It’s not for the faint of heart. Guys are putting everything on the line you know?” he said.
Edmonton gets two days to reset, with Game 4 Thursday night in Sunrise.
“I thought we got away from our game,” Oilers captain Connor McDavid said. “Part of that it’s due to chasing it a little bit. Part of that is obviously a credit to them. They played well. You find yourself in a hole, you’re going to do some uncharacteristic things and I thought we got away from our game a little bit there.”
If the Oilers are going to earn a split before heading back to Edmonton, they’ll need more from McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, their two superstar forwards and the first- and second-leading scorers in the playoffs.
This was just the 13th playoff game in which McDavid and Draisaitl both failed to record a point. The Oilers are 2-11 in those games. Draisaitl also failed to register a shot attempt in the game for just the second time in 93 playoff career games.
“Obviously it wasn’t our best. Not our best at all. I don’t think our best has shown up all series long,” said McDavid, “but it’s coming.”
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Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
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Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
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Dan Wetzel
Bill Belichick was presented the game ball Saturday following North Carolina’s 20-3 triumph over Charlotte. It marked his first victory as a collegiate coach after winning 333 games (playoffs included) in the NFL.
As good as the Tar Heels’ bounce-back performance must have felt, it’s certainly possible he enjoyed a different result from the weekend even more: Las Vegas 20, New England 13.
Belichick is an all-time great at two things: winning football games and carrying grudges to the pettiest of levels. One tends to fuel the other. Belichick is often at his best when he has some villain, real or imagined, to prove wrong.
It is why UNC fans should be encouraged that Belichick is still so dripping with anger against his old NFL franchise that he would resort to juvenile antics such as banning Patriots scouts from the Heels’ football building.
“It’s obvious I’m not welcome at their facility,” Belichick said Saturday. “So, they’re not welcome at ours.”
This, to be clear, is comically ridiculous. The easy joke, based on UNC’s 48-10 humiliation against TCU in the season opener, is that if Belichick really wanted to doom the Pats, he would get them to draft a bunch of his guys.
Really, though, it’s just another sign that Belichick has not forgiven New England owner Robert Kraft for their split following a 4-13 campaign in 2023. It’s possible that he blames some of the NFL’s lack of interest in hiring him to Kraft talking him down to fellow owners.
In fact, it is not obvious that Belichick is banned from the Patriots facility.
Current New England coach Mike Vrabel, a former player under Belichick, said Monday that Belichick is always welcome and pointed to Belichick’s presence at a June 2024 ceremony honoring Tom Brady.
“Since his departure as the head coach here, he’s been back,” Vrabel said. “I’ll leave it at that.”
UNC hired Belichick to breathe life into its often decent, but rarely great, program. In doing so, it is getting the full BB experience: the good, the bad, the soap opera. Maybe even a winning team.
There’ll be no dull moments. Carolina should understand this, though, about its new coach. Belichick tends to feed off feuds.
Belichick’s motivation to build the Patriots came, in part, to show he was more than Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator. Battles with the league office over Spygate and Deflategate sharpened him to help win six Super Bowls.
He has always been about small gestures of defiance, cutting the sleeves off his sweatshirt after the NFL mandated coaches wear Reebok clothing on the sideline, for example. He’s counterculture, even as he became the culture — or unexpected fashion influencer.
His fight with Kraft is just the latest.
Beyond no longer being the Patriots coach, Belichick was often portrayed poorly in a 2024 Apple TV 10-part docuseries “The Dynasty,” the distribution rights of which are owned by Kraft, according to reporting by ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr. The team has denied any editorial influence over the project.
The response has been classic Belichick.
His autobiography “The Art of Winning” released last summer contained not a single mention of Kraft, his boss of 24 years. He and partner Jordon Hudson have also engaged in a trademark war with the Patriots over certain phrases (“Do Your Job,” for example) that the team currently owns. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, per reporting by ESPN’s Mike Rothstein, has refused Belichick’s requests.
Then there were Belichick’s comments to the Boston Globe about the positives of being a college coach.
“There’s no owner, there’s no owner’s son, there’s no cap, everything that goes with the marketing and everything else, which I’m all for that,” Belichick said. “But it’s way less of what it was at that level. …
“I’d say when we had our best years in New England, we had fewer people and more of a direct vision. And as that expanded, it became harder to be successful.”
The palace intrigue over the NFL’s greatest dynasty will rage for years, particularly involving the triumvirate of Belichick, Brady and Kraft, the owner who has never been shy about trying to grab some spotlight. It’s always interesting. Blame can shift because of perspective. Credit as well.
Just last week, Kraft, at least publicly, tried to offer an olive branch when he told WBZ-TV that he wanted a Belichick statue outside Gillette Stadium, alongside Brady’s.
“When Bill’s coaching career ends, we look forward to sitting down with him and having a statue made to be right next to Tommy,” Kraft said.
Apparently, Belichick was unmoved.
None of this has any obvious impact on winning the ACC, which is the goal of Belichick’s current job. That said, it doesn’t necessarily hurt the cause.
One of the risks in hiring a 73-year-old as a first-time college coach is that he would view the job as something to occupy his time, work with his kids and have some fun. That has mostly been the case for former NFL coaches landing in the NCAA, and it rarely works.
Belichick’s bitterness toward the Patriots to the extent that their scouts are barred from Chapel Hill is at least a sign of something different. Belichick knows the shots back at Foxborough don’t carry much weight if UNC is losing. Living well, after all, is the best revenge.
Belichick might be relentlessly focused on actually reaching the College Football Playoff … if only to show up Kraft.
Who cares about the motivation? The results are what matter.
And just imagine if, along the way, he learns to hate Duke or Dabo as much.
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