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Welcome to the original … the amazing … the astonishing … ESPN still-too-early All-Star selections — full of wonderful surprises and fun debates for all ages.

A lot can change in the month before the 2025 All-Star announcements, but we’re deep enough into the season that we can make some educated guesses on what the rosters will look like — or should look like — for this year’s Midsummer Classic in Atlanta on July 15.

The usual rules apply: 32 players per team, broken down into 20 position players and 12 pitchers (at least three relievers), with one representative from each MLB club. Players will be considered for the position they’re listed at on the official All-Star ballot.

Let’s dive into baseball’s most power-packed league.

National League

Top starter debates

First base: Freddie Freeman vs. Pete Alonso

It looks as if Freeman — whom I’ve referred to as the new David Ortiz — will keep hitting until he retires or until his legs eventually give out. Freeman’s numbers were down a bit last season as he dealt with injuries and the health scare to his son, but he’s raking once again and leads the NL in batting average (.354), is tied for first in doubles (20, with Alonso and Brendan Donovan), ranks second in OPS (1.024) and third in OPS+ (189). At 35 years old, he’s as good as ever — maybe better.

Alonso had a couple of soft All-Star selections the past two years, making it last season despite a sub-.800 OPS in the first half and in 2023, despite hitting just .211 (albeit with 26 home runs). This season is shaping up as his best all-around campaign at the plate, even if he’ll fall short of the 53 home runs he hit as a rookie in 2019. He has cut down his strikeout rate, is hitting around .300 and leads the NL with 61 RBIs thanks to a .356 average with runners in scoring position.

This is a coin flip, especially because Freeman spent time on the injured list early this season. Both have also been incredible in high-leverage situations, with Freeman hitting .303/.457/.606 and Alonso even better at .419/.525/.907. That does it for me. Alonso gets the nod.

Third outfielder: James Wood vs. Kyle Tucker vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.

The first outfield selection is easy: Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is making a strong case for NL MVP thanks to his spectacular defense, baserunning and surprising power at the plate (he leads the NL in Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR) and could have an incredible 10-WAR season. The last NL player to do that: Barry Bonds in 2004. I don’t know whether Crow-Armstrong can keep hitting this well, considering his chase rate (third worst in the majors), but pitchers haven’t exploited that aggressiveness yet.

Corbin Carroll gets the second nod. No arguments there. The next three are right there with Carroll — all worthy starters. Tucker is having another superb all-around season, hitting for power, getting on base and stealing bases to earn a fourth straight All-Star selection. Tatis has slowed down after a hot April (1.011 OPS) but adds Gold Glove defense in right field.

My nod, however, goes to Wood. The sophomore sensation is hitting .270/.366/.533 with 16 home runs, getting the ball in the air more often than last season (although with much more growth potential in that area) and displaying elite numbers all over his Baseball Savant page. Physically, the 22-year-old resembles Aaron Judge — and it’s perhaps a little premature to point this out, but Judge hit .308/.419/.486 at age 22 … in High-A.

Second base: Ketel Marte vs. Brendan Donovan vs. Brice Turang vs. Nico Hoerner

Can we shift a couple of these players to the AL? These four are bunched closely in WAR, although they got there in different ways. Marte, last year’s starter, is having another monster offensive season, but he missed a month because of a hamstring strain. Donovan is hitting over .300 with a bunch of doubles and adds flexibility by filling in at left field and shortstop. Turang and Hoerner are defensive wizards without much power but add enough offensive value by getting on base and stealing bases.

My vote goes to Marte. He’s the best player of the group, and only the injury holds him back in the debate. He’s hitting .294/.418/.603 with 12 home runs in 39 games and has more walks than strikeouts, ranking in the 90th-plus percentile in walk rate and lowest strikeout rate. What a fantastic player — often overlooked. Donovan makes it as the backup, while Turang and Hoerner draw the short straw and are left off my hypothetical team.


Starters

Here’s my NL starting lineup:

C: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

1B: Pete Alonso, New York Mets

2B: Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

3B: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

SS: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

OF: James Wood, Washington Nationals

DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

SP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Smith is an easy call at catcher. He’s one of 13 Dodgers catchers to make an All-Star team in franchise history. Can any team match that many All-Stars at one position?

Machado and Lindor are the clear leaders at their positions, and Ohtani is matching his offensive prowess from 2024, minus a few stolen bases. Skenes is only 4-6 and his strikeout rate has dipped more than 6 percentage points from last season, but he has a 1.88 ERA and is in line to start for the second time in his two seasons in the majors.


Reserves

C: Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies

1B: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

2B: Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals

3B: Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants

SS: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

SS: Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds

OF: Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs

OF: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

OF Juan Soto, New York Mets

OF: Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins

DH: Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

Believe it or not, the lowly Rockies have two reasonable All-Star candidates in Goodman and reliever Jake Bird. Bird has been good for 35 innings, but let’s go with Goodman as the backup catcher, given the lack of a strong candidate because players such as William Contreras and J.T. Realmuto are having down seasons and others such as Carson Kelly and Drake Baldwin are excelling but in part-time roles.

Betts and De La Cruz get the nod at shortstop over Trea Turner, Geraldo Perdomo, Masyn Winn and CJ Abrams in a deep group of candidates. Betts isn’t having his best season, but he’s one of the game’s marquee players and the others haven’t outplayed him enough to kick him off this roster. The backup DH slot is down to Schwarber, Marcell Ozuna and Seiya Suzuki — with all three putting up nice numbers, but Schwarber’s are a little nicer.

And, yes, we managed to squeeze Soto onto the team, especially as he heats up with another three-hit game Sunday (and three walks), raising his OPS to .820. Stowers represents the Marlins, pushing out a third second baseman or Jackson Merrill, who might have made it if he hadn’t missed a month on the IL.


Pitchers

SP: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

SP: MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

SP: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

SP: Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

SP: Kodai Senga, New York Mets

SP: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

SP: Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

RP: Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres

RP: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets

RP: Randy Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants

Peralta makes it as our Brewers rep but is a worthy selection with a 2.69 ERA. He makes it over Reds teammates Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott.

The game is at Truist Park in Atlanta, so it would be nice to get more Braves on the team — but Sale is the only one I squeezed onto the roster. Ozuna, Austin Riley and Spencer Schwellenbach still have time to play their way onto the team, but the last time the Braves had just one All-Star rep was 2017, when Ender Inciarte was the only selection. It would be a far cry from two seasons ago, when the Braves had eight All-Stars.

American League

Top starter debates

Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Jeremy Peña vs. Jacob Wilson

Here are their current stats:

Witt: .291/.349/.492, 8 HR, 135 OPS+, 3.4 bWAR, 3.5 fWAR
Peña: .316/.373/.480, 9 HR, 139 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR
Wilson: .372/.408/.528, 8 HR, 163 OPS+, 2.8 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR

Peña has been terrific in helping keep afloat Houston’s offense, which lost Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason and has been without a productive Yordan Alvarez. Peña has dropped his strikeout rate for a third straight season, and Baseball-Reference, which gives him the highest WAR among the three, loves his defense.

Wilson debuted last season with the A’s but still has rookie status, which puts him on a potential track for some historic rookie numbers. The last rookie to hit .350? Ichiro Suzuki in 2001. The only rookie since 1900 to hit .370? George Watkins in the juiced ball season of 1930 when he hit .373 (and even then, he had just 424 plate appearances, so wouldn’t qualify under current standards). Highest average for a rookie shortstop? Johnny Pesky at .331 in 1942. With eight home runs, Wilson is even hitting for more power than expected. His defense, however, isn’t on par with that of Witt or Peña.

Witt’s home run numbers are down from last season, but he leads the majors with 22 doubles. With the weather heating up, some of those doubles should turn into home runs. His defense remains spectacular, and he leads the AL in stolen bases. He’s a true star, and though there’s time for Peña or Wilson to pass him, Witt should be starting his first All-Star Game in 2025 — the first of many.

Starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal vs. Kris Bubic

Skubal is making a strong push to defend his 2024 AL Cy Young Award, while Bubic has put up a surprisingly dominant first half for the Royals. The numbers:

Skubal: 6-2, 2.16 ERA, 83.1 IP, 61 H, 7 BB, 105 SO, 3.1 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR
Bubic: 5.3, 1.43 ERA, 75.1 IP, 53 H, 22 BB, 79 SO, 3.5 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR

Bubic — who pitched in 27 games for the Royals last season, all in relief — is a 27-year-old lefty, a 2018 first-round pick out of Stanford who had Tommy John surgery in 2023. His fastball isn’t overpowering at 92-93 mph, but he has added more spin than before his surgery to improve its whiff rate and his changeup is one of the best in the game (batters are hitting .100 against it). Though maintaining a 1.43 ERA isn’t likely, he has been really good and not just lucky.

Sticking with my “He’s done it before” analysis, however, Skubal is the pick — and it’s hard to argue that he’s not the best starter in the majors. That strikeout-to-walk ratio is incredible, plus he seems to be heating up, allowing just one run over his past three starts.

First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Paul Goldschmidt vs. Jonathan Aranda vs. Spencer Torkelson

Meh. Guerrero has made four straight All-Star appearances, including three starts, but he has benefited from subpar competition. First base in the AL has been consistently lacking in stars for a long time.

Anyway, the numbers … and, no, I didn’t have Goldschmidt on my bingo card either:

Guerrero: .273/.380/.417, 8 HR, 29 RBIs, 1.7 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR
Goldschmidt: .312/.369/.464, 7 HR, 29 RBIs, 1.7 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR
Aranda: .320/.406/.490, 7 HR, 34 RBIs, 2.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR
Torkelson: .237/.342/.500 15 HR, 45 RBIs, 1.4 bWAR, 1.5 fWAR

Aranda has the best slash line, although he started only 50 of the Rays’ first 64 games because he wasn’t playing against lefties earlier in the season. He has no track record of hitting like this, but his Statcast metrics are impressive, including a 94th percentile hard-hit rate. Goldschmidt was hitting over .340 just a week ago, so he has been in a slump, but coming off the worst season of his career, he has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees. Torkelson has the best power numbers of the group but is the worst defender and has slowed down after a hot start.

I’ll stick with Guerrero as the starter. Nobody else has done quite enough, although any of the four could separate from the pack with a hot June. I’ll make Aranda the backup, a nod to his nice start.


Starters

My AL starting lineup:

C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

2B: Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers

3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

OF: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

OF: Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

DH: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

SP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Raleigh is the landslide choice at catcher, and let’s hope the fans vote him in as the starter. He leads the majors in home runs and is on pace for one of the greatest offensive seasons for a catcher. Torres gets the nod in a very weak group at second base, probably the weakest position in either league. Bregman was battling Ramirez for starting honors at third base until Bregman’s injury.

The AL outfield is also pretty weak, with Judge the one easy choice and Kwan a distant second choice. The third starter is up for grabs. Julio Rodriguez is the selection going by WAR, but his offensive numbers are still way down from his first two seasons in the majors. Devers gets the nod at DH because, despite the slow start and controversy over playing first base, he’s putting up the best OPS of his career.


Reserves

C: Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels

1B: Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays

2B: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

3B: Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

3B: Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals

SS: Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros

SS: Jacob Wilson, Athletics

OF: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

OF: Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

OF: Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees

DH: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles

O’Hoppe is our Angels rep, and Lowe joins teammate Aranda on the All-Star roster. Paredes has quietly had a nice season for the Astros, although Junior Caminero is coming on strong for the Rays, and Bregman will merit consideration if he can make it back soon from his hamstring injury. Greene has had a weird season for the Tigers with a ton of strikeouts, but he has been a mainstay in a better-than-expected Detroit lineup.

Bellinger is one of many other outfield candidates. Any of the three Red Sox outfielders — Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela — could make it (Rafaela on the strength of his defense), and the Athletics’ Lawrence Butler is heating up after a slow start. O’Hearn makes it as the only Orioles rep, and Alvarez’s injury opens a DH slot. Garcia was my final choice, quietly having a nice season for the Royals, hitting over .300 while also starting games at second base and in the outfield.


Pitchers

SP: Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

SP: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

SP: Max Fried, New York Yankees

SP: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

SP: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

SP: Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

SP: Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

SP: Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

RP: Josh Hader, Houston Astros

RP: Andres Muñoz, Seattle Mariners

RP: Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins

Look at all those lefties! Besides Skubal, five of the eight other AL starters are left-handed. Brown and Fried have sub-2.00 ERAs and could merit consideration for starting as well — this is a very deep group of AL starters. Nathan Eovaldi is left off only because he’s on the injured list, but he’s not expected to be out long and was as good as anyone, with a 1.56 ERA. It’s great to see deGrom back, and even though he’s not as dominant as in his peak Mets days, he still has a 2.12 ERA. Valdez gets the nod over Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan, and Smith makes it as the White Sox rep.

For the relievers, Hader didn’t make the All-Star Game last year, but he’s dominating again, going 17-for-17 in save chances. Muñoz had a 0.00 ERA until May 30. Duran is 4-1 with 10 saves and a 1.19 ERA, part of a Twins bullpen that has been the best in the majors. Though they didn’t make the cut, Tigers relievers Tommy Kahnle and Will Vest have been great in late-game duties for Detroit.

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

DALLAS — Tom Hicks, the Texas businessman and philanthropist who owned two Dallas-area professional sports franchises and an English Premier League soccer team, died Saturday. He was 79.

Spokesperson Lisa LeMaster said in statement that Hicks died peacefully in Dallas surrounded by family.

Hicks owned the NHL’s Dallas Stars from 1995 to 2011, winning the Stanley Cup in 1999. He also owned baseball’s Texas Rangers from 1998 to 2010, leading them to three American West Division titles and a World Series appearance. In 2007, he acquired a 50% stake in Liverpool.

“Being shoulder to shoulder with him was always about more than ballparks and stadiums, though,” Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said in a statement. “It was about personal respect, trust and friendship. We shared a lot of miles together, and I’ll miss him greatly. My heart goes out to his family.”

Hicks co-founded Hicks & Haas in 1984 and helped reshape private equity and investing strategy. He served on the University of Texas’s board of regents from 1994 to 1999.

“Tom Hicks was an innovative businessman and a pioneer in private equity,” fellow Texas businessman Ross Perot Jr. said in a statement. “He combined his commitment to business and sports through his ownership of the Stars and the Rangers.”

Hicks is survived by his wife of 35 years, Cinda Cree Hicks, and his six children — Thomas Ollis Hicks Jr., Mack Hardin Hicks, John Alexander Hicks, Robert Bradley Hicks, William Cree Hicks and Catherine Forgrave Hicks.

His children released a joint statement, saying:

“Of everything he accomplished in his remarkable life, Tom Hicks’s most cherished title was, ‘Dad.’ No matter the trials and tribulations he faced in life, he was constant in his generosity and love for his family. He remains a guiding force for our family, and we are deeply honored to continue expanding his legacy. Although we are devastated by this loss, we are profoundly grateful to have been his children.”

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.

It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.

With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.

Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?

Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.

Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.

Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.


Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.

Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.

Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.


Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.

Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.

Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).


Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.

Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.

Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).


Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.

Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.


Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.

Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.

Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.


Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.

Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.

Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.


Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.

Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.


Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.

Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.

Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.


Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.

Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.

Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.


Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.

Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.

Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.


Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.

Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.

Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?

We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

All times Eastern

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma


CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Complete bowl season schedule

Matchups in bold have already been announced

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M

Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN

Old Dominion vs. South Florida

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN

Louisiana vs. Delaware

Thursday, Dec. 18

Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

California vs. Hawai’i

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC

Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

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