Who has the best lineup in MLB? We ranked all 30 teams
Every week, we gather a panel of our MLB experts to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we knew going into the season. Those power rankings look at teams as a whole — both at the plate and in the field.
But, how different would those rankings be if we were to look only at major league offenses?
We’ve seen a number of offensive explosions so far in the 2025 season — from torpedo bats taking the league by storm on opening weekend thanks to the Yankees’ barrage of home runs to Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani each putting together yet another all-time campaign at the plate.
The latest offensive shake-up came in the form of a blockbuster trade, with the Red Sox sending All-Star slugger Rafael Devers to the Giants in a deal that reverberated around the league. How did it impact the two teams’ offensive outlooks?
Our MLB power rankers came together to sort baseball’s lineups based on what they’ve seen so far and where teams currently stand. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle to break down the top 10 offenses in baseball, from each team’s catalyst to the lineup’s biggest weakness.
Top 10 lineups
Why it’s so fearsome: You start with the second-best hitter in the world in Shohei Ohtani, add in the National League’s leading hitter for average in Freddie Freeman and the NL’s OBP leader in Will Smith, mix in Mookie Betts, and finish with power up and down the lineup — and you might have the best lineup in Dodgers history. Indeed, their current wRC+ of 124 would be the highest in franchise history. There is just no room for opposing pitchers to breathe, and the Dodgers have a nice balance of left- and right-handed hitters who make it difficult for opposing managers to optimize their bullpen matchups.
One weakness: Michael Conforto has been a big disappointment as a free agent, hitting .170 with only four home runs while playing nearly every game so far. The bench was weak to start the season, but the Dodgers jettisoned longtime veterans Chris Taylor and Austin Barnes and called up Hyeseong Kim and top prospect Dalton Rushing. Kim has been outstanding, hitting .382 in his first 30 games, while Rushing has played sparingly as the backup catcher.
Player who makes it all click: As the leadoff hitter, Ohtani’s presence sets the tone from the first pitch of the game — and he already has hit seven first-inning home runs in 2025. With 73 runs in the Dodgers’ first 72 games (he sat out two of them), Ohtani is on pace for a remarkable 164 runs scored, which has been topped only twice since 1900 — once each by Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. (They also each have the only other seasons with at least 160 runs scored.) With Ohtani making his 2025 pitching debut Monday, we’ll see if that affects his offense, but it didn’t during his final season with the Angels in 2023 when he posted a 1.066 OPS while pitching. — Schoenfield
Why it’s so fearsome: The Yankees homer more than any team in the American League. They walk more than any team in all of MLB. They don’t strike out excessively. They punish fastballs. Judge, the best hitter in baseball, anchors their lineup. Seven other regulars are slugging at least .428 in an environment where the leaguewide slug is under .400. There are 100 more reasons the Yankees’ lineup induces such anxiety in opposing pitchers, but it can be encapsulated this way: It’s a lineup without a real weak link, filled with professional hitters who take quality at-bats, at a time when so few make that a priority.
One weakness: Calling this a weakness is a stretch, because the most important point about the Yankees’ lineup is that it doesn’t have a weakness, but they have been worse with runners in scoring position than in situations without runners on second or third. The Marlins have more home runs with players in scoring position than the Yankees. New York’s slugging percentage in such situations dips from .451 to .407 — good for 13th in MLB. It’s also 140 points below the Dodgers’ mark. But fear not: Slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who epitomized clutch for the Yankees last postseason, is back after sitting out the season’s first 2½ months. As if the rich need to get any richer.
Player who makes it all click: What, were you expecting J.C. Escarra? The answer, of course, is Judge, the two-time AL MVP whose combination of power and plate discipline is gifting the Yankees another potential all-time season. It’s not simply the .378 batting average — which is 56 points higher than his career best — or the resplendent home runs he hits, to left and center and right, making the whole field his playground. Even after a miserable series against the Red Sox over the weekend, there is an expectation that Judge will rebound because he hits the ball so hard and so consistently makes contact. The Yankees without Judge are good; the Yankees with him are undeniable. — Passan
Why it’s so fearsome: The lineup depth has been ridiculous, and that trait has been even more stark since Matt Shaw returned from an early-season demotion and began contributing. The Cubs’ collective OPS from spots seven through nine in the batting order is more than 50 points better than the second-best team. Some of that stems from Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting seventh early on, but Chicago has maintained its top-to-bottom consistency all season. This keeps the plate full for run-producers Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki.
One weakness: The Cubs have been good at just about everything that goes with producing runs. They rank in the top 10 in all three slash categories, are fifth in homers and second in steals. You really have to squint to find a weakness. You can point to a big disparity in road production (.808 OPS) compared to what the Cubs have done at Wrigley Field (.702 OPS). But that too might even out as the weather factors in Chicago work more consistently in favor of hitters.
Player who makes it all click: Crow-Armstrong might be the Cubs’ best MVP candidate, but Tucker is the best hitter and the best exemplar of Chicago’s good-at-everything attack. Tucker leads the team in runs created and OPS+, and though he’s not Crow-Armstrong on the bases, he has swiped 18 of 19 bags. None of this is out of scale with Tucker’s track record. This is who he is — except maybe a little better, as he has walked more than he has struck out. If Tucker’s power bat heats up with the summer weather, look out. — Doolittle
Why it’s so fearsome: The Diamondbacks do a little bit of everything. They already have two 20-homer hitters in Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez, plus Ketel Marte, who sat out a month because of injury but could still reach 30 home runs. They are fourth in the majors in walks and fifth in on-base percentage, so they get on base. Geraldo Perdomo has been a solid contributor the past two seasons but has added some power. He has more walks than strikeouts and has already established a career high in RBIs, adding depth. Josh Naylor is hitting around .300 while replacing Christian Walker’s production at first base.
One weakness: Center fielder Alek Thomas is the only regular with a below-average OPS+, and even then, he’s not awful. The bench is a little thin beyond Tim Tawa and Randal Grichuk, as backup catcher Jose Herrera has provided little offense. The Diamondbacks’ biggest potential weakness is their struggle against left-handed pitchers. (They have an OPS more than 100 points lower than against right-handers.) Carroll, Naylor and the switch-hitting Marte have each been significantly better against righties.
Player who makes it all click: As explosive as Carroll has been at the top of the order, Marte is the team’s best all-around hitter. Like Perdomo, he has more walks than strikeouts, making him a tough out with his ability to put the ball in play and also take free passes. He has the power (36 home runs in 2024) to clear the bases, but he also excels as a baserunner and can have Naylor and Suarez drive him in. When the Diamondbacks reached the World Series in 2023, Marte was the offensive leader, hitting .329/.380/.534 that postseason. — Schoenfield
Why it’s so fearsome: The Mets’ lineup runs sneaky deep, boasts a combination of average and power, and has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the major leagues. Low strikeouts often equate to decent batting averages, but the Venn diagram with contact orientation and power is sparsely populated. Beyond the overall numbers, the Mets’ lineup is packed with stars: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and the team’s best hitter this season, Pete Alonso. A resurgent Jeff McNeil deepens a group that hasn’t received quite the expected output from Soto. He’s starting to find his rhythm, though, and once that happens, the Mets are bound to be even better.
One weakness: Considering the Mets have multiple options at third base, the quest for an internal solution isn’t banking on the fortunes of a single player. It could be Mark Vientos, the postseason star last year who’s set to begin a rehab assignment next week after a disappointing start to the season. It could be Brett Baty, who has shown plenty of power but still sports a .267 on-base percentage. It could be Ronny Mauricio, the rookie whose pop — and allergy to getting on base — is similar to Baty’s. Regardless of who it is, manager Carlos Mendoza has time to figure out how to maneuver his lineup so that other offensive holes at catcher and center field (when Jeff McNeil isn’t playing there) aren’t nearly as glaring.
Player who makes it all click: The Mets have been clicking without the best version of Soto, so it’s no surprise that in the past 16 games — in which Soto has hit .333/.507/.685 with five home runs — they have scored at least four runs 15 times. As good as New York is without Soto performing, he is their double-click — the catalyzer who brings about action. Even at his lowest points this season, he was managing to get on base, and that’s what makes Soto such a transformative player: His floor is extremely high. When he’s feeling his swing and unleashing shots to all fields, he’s capable of reaching a ceiling higher than all but a handful of hitters in the game. — Passan
Why it’s so fearsome: The Phillies have veterans with big names who have all been productive hitters at various points in their careers — although not necessarily in 2025. Kyle Schwarber has been the lynchpin so far, moved out of the leadoff spot and leading the team in home runs, runs scored and RBIs. Trea Turner is having his best season since joining the Phillies in 2023, with a .364 OBP that would be his highest since 2021. Alec Bohm has been on his usual roller coaster — homerless in April but hitting .331 with seven home runs since the beginning of May.
One weakness: Catcher J.T. Realmuto has carried a huge workload through the years but is now 34 years old and showing some signs of age with career lows in batting average, slugging and OPS. Bryson Stott was an above-average hitter in 2023 before dipping last season, and he has been even worse in 2025 with an OPS+ of just 75. Part-time center fielder Johan Rojas provides speed and defense, but not much offense, and as usual, the bench is pretty weak. Yes, that’s more than one weakness.
Player who makes it all click: As important as it is to have Turner getting on base, this lineup will always revolve around Bryce Harper and his ability to go on hot stretches. He hasn’t had one yet this season and is currently on the injured list because of a right wrist injury. His .446 slugging percentage and .814 OPS are his lowest since 2016. Harper has always been an outlier of sorts — he ranks in the second percentile in swing-and-miss rate in 2025 but in the 67th percentile in strikeout rate — so these aren’t necessarily signs of a decline. Philly just needs him to get hot once he returns. — Schoenfield
Why it’s so fearsome: It’s not. That’s the thing about the Tigers. One gander at their lineup cards — manager AJ Hinch has used 60 different variations over 71 games — and it doesn’t exactly strike fear. And yet that’s the beauty of the 2025 Tigers: They’re managing to score oodles of runs without a single hitter sporting a slugging percentage higher than .500. It’s not like the Tigers are particularly good at avoiding the strikeout (24th in MLB) or taking walks (18th). They don’t hit home runs in bunches (10th) or steal bases at all (30th). They’re simply solid, almost from top to bottom, replete with enough hitters who are league average or better to cobble together runs.
One weakness: The strikeouts are problematic — and a third of Detroit’s regulars struggle to counterbalance them with walks. Kerry Carpenter (52 strikeouts, seven walks), super-utility man Javier Baez (48 strikeouts, eight walks) and catcher Dillon Dingler (56 strikeouts, five walks) constitute one-third of players in all of MLB with at least 48 punchouts and fewer than 10 walks. Riley Greene’s 93 strikeouts lead MLB. And in the postseason, where the pitching gets better and every out is valuable, giving away at-bats by swinging and missing too much is a distinct no-no. Even with the strikeouts, the Tigers won’t be an easy out in October. But among the teams with legitimate playoff aspirations, only Boston punches out more, and it’s the sort of thing that could haunt Detroit.
Player who makes it all click: There isn’t one player, per se. One night it might be outfielder Greene, and another one first baseman Spencer Torkelson, and sometimes outfielder Carpenter, and maybe even infielder Zach McKinstry or outfielder Wenceel Perez. But if there’s one player whose skills differ from his teammates’ and set the table, it’s second baseman Gleyber Torres. Operating on a one-year deal, Torres has been the Tigers’ most consistent hitter this season, getting on base at a .377 clip and walking more than he strikes out. He exemplifies Detroit’s lineup — its team, really — in that nothing he does is particularly sexy but it’s unquestionably effective. — Passan
Why it’s so fearsome: “Fearsome” might be a stretch, but after a horrible April (.656 OPS), the Blue Jays did follow up with a strong May (.785 OPS). June has so far split the difference (.709 OPS), so maybe that’s the true level here, which makes this more of a league-average offense — and, indeed, that’s where the Jays currently stand in runs per game. But there is potential for more here, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Anthony Santander, Bo Bichette and Andres Gimenez all capable of more offense than they’ve offered so far.
One weakness: Power. George Springer leads the team with 10 home runs, and the Jays have been outhomered by their opponents 99-70. Left field has been a problem all season, as seven different players have started there, combining to hit .223 with only four home runs. Gimenez was acquired for his defense at second base, but he has been a flop at the plate, hitting .212/.291/.327 with four home runs (and that’s after homering three times in the first five games). Lately, he has even been benched against left-handers.
Player who makes it all click: The $500 million man is hitting more like a $50 million man right now (.275/.375/.414, eight home runs) — but when he’s hot, the offense runs through him. Guerrero had a monster season in 2021 — but that was the year the Jays played more than half of their games in minor league parks because of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Guerrero had a 1.418 OPS in their spring training park and a 1.180 OPS in Buffalo (and a .935 at Rogers Centre). He was great again last season — thanks to a .342 BABIP. This season, it’s back down to .299, right around his career mark, but even that doesn’t explain the decline in power. The Jays need Guerrero to start mashing. — Schoenfield
9. Athletics
Why it’s so fearsome: They hit home runs and they hit for average, ranking in the top 10 in the majors in both categories. Jacob Wilson has been the breakout star with a .362 average in his rookie season, Brent Rooker is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season, Lawrence Butler is heating up and looking like the hitter he was in the second half of 2024, and rookie first baseman Nick Kurtz has also added another power bat to the lineup (after a slow start, he has hit .286 with six home runs in his past 11 games). What we don’t fully know yet, based on a small sample size, is how Sutter Health Park is helping. The A’s have hit for a higher average at home (.268 to .240) but have hit more home runs on the road (53 in 38 games compared to 39 in 36 games at home).
One weakness: JJ Bleday had a solid 2024 season, with 20 home runs and a 120 OPS+ in 159 games, but struggled out of the gate in 2025, earning a short demotion to Triple-A. Rookie Denzel Clarke replaced him, and though he has been a defensive wunderkind, he has been overmatched at the plate, hitting .209 with 34 strikeouts and one walk. Overall, the A’s rank 29th in the majors in OPS from their center fielders, ahead of only the Guardians.
Player who makes it all click: Wilson has been amazing, showcasing rare bat-to-ball skills with only 18 strikeouts in 289 plate appearances. The big surprise has been the 23 extra-base hits, including eight home runs, after going homerless in 92 at-bats during last season’s call-up. He has also been drawing a few more walks after beginning the season without one in his first 22 games, so his OBP is over .400. Now that he appears entrenched in the No. 2 spot, he’s going to give the middle of the order a lot of RBI opportunities. — Schoenfield
Why it’s so fearsome: In the Cardinals’ case, the fear factor is probably pointed in the wrong direction — as in their own fear of regression. I suspect their ranking is more a product of what they’ve done than what they are likely to do going forward. Ultimately, a team like the Braves, or even the reshuffled Giants or Red Sox, might be better placed here — but you never know. It’s a lineup with batting average and baserunning as the standout traits. The average part of it can be a house of cards — no pun intended — but the underlying expected stats backstop St. Louis’ offense so far.
One weakness: Only six clubs have a lower secondary average than the Cardinals — mostly a who’s who of the worst offenses in the majors. Secondary traits tend to be more stable than BABIP-related indicators, so St. Louis will need to continue to churn out its admirable strikeout and line-drive rates — a good formula for an average-based offense. But if the average falls, the Cardinals don’t draw enough walks or mash enough homers to make up the difference.
Player who makes it all click: Brendan Donovan‘s career year serves as an avatar for what the St. Louis offense is all about. He leads the Redbirds in runs created, and because he’s doing that while mostly playing in the middle of the infield (which boosts positional value), he’s far and away the team leader in offensive bWAR. The question is will it last? On one hand, even though Donovan has a career BABIP of .319, his 2025-to-date figure of .355 is going to be tough to maintain. On the other hand, Donovan’s 31% line drive rate is tied for second in the NL with teammate Willson Contreras. — Doolittle
Teams 11-30
11. Boston Red Sox
12. Seattle Mariners
13. San Francisco Giants
14. Atlanta Braves
15. Tampa Bay Rays
16. San Diego Padres
17. Cincinnati Reds
18. Minnesota Twins
19. Houston Astros
20. Baltimore Orioles
21. Milwaukee Brewers
22. Los Angeles Angels
23. Washington Nationals
24. Cleveland Guardians
25. Texas Rangers
26. Kansas City Royals
27. Miami Marlins
28. Chicago White Sox
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Colorado Rockies
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Bill Connelly
Oregon and Penn State went to overtime. Alabama and Georgia nearly did. Tennessee went to overtime for a second time in three weeks. Illinois watched a two-score lead vanish against unbeaten USC and then won anyway. Georgia Tech pulled off a magic act to avoid an upset in Wake Forest.
What looked to be a great Friday night was one of the best Friday nights in memory, with Virginia pulling off a stirring overtime upset of Florida State, Arizona State unearthing some more close-game magic and Houston coming back to win in overtime in Corvallis. Indiana survived Iowa City. Cincinnati and Kansas put on a Big 12 track meet. Central Washington scored 91 points!
There aren’t many things in the world better than a huge college football Saturday that lives up to its hype. We had been looking forward to Week 5 since the preseason, and it delivered. So instead of compiling a “My Favorite Games of the Week” list at the bottom of this week’s recap column, we’re going to build the whole column out of My Favorite Games!
With Florida State facing its first road test of the season and TCU and Arizona State facing off in a key Big 12 battle, Friday night looked like it was going to be awesome. It was more than that. Arizona State and TCU went down to the wire, Houston-Oregon State was surprisingly awesome, and the game between YAC kings in Charlottesville exceeded all expectations.
Thanks in part to an early fumble from FSU’s Gavin Sawchuk and an acrobatic red zone interception from UVA’s Ja’son Prevard, Virginia led 14-0 early in the second quarter. When FSU scored on three straight drives, however, this game looked as if it would belong to the “Underdog lands some shots early, then fades” category. We see a lot of those games.
Virginia just kept responding, however. J’Mari Taylor tied the game at 21-21 before halftime, Chandler Morris scored his second rushing touchdown, and Morris threw a go-ahead TD to Xavier Brown with 7:20 left. FSU sent the game to overtime with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Tommy Castellanos to Randy Pittman Jr. with 36 seconds left; I was surprised FSU didn’t go for two points and the win, but perhaps coach Mike Norvell simply trusted that his offense was more likely to keep scoring. Nope! The Seminoles didn’t net a single first down in two overtime possessions. First, both teams settled for field goals. Then Morris scored again and hit Trell Harris for the 2-point conversion. Prevard picked off Castellanos’ desperation heave, and one of the most rapid field-stormings you’ll ever see followed.
0:49
Fans rush the field after UVA upsets No. 8 FSU
Florida State is unable to convert on fourth down in double overtime against Virginia, and fans storm the field.
I’m not going to lie: That was both exhilarating and terrifying to watch. But it had been quite a while since Cavaliers fans got to celebrate such a win — their last home victory over a top-10 team was in 2005. That win was also against Florida State. And in a fun nod to history, the Cavaliers had also scored one of the great weeknight upsets of all time in 1995 against, yes, Florida State again. Thirty years later, they did it again.
The win was big because every fan base deserves moments like this. It was also big because it upended the ACC title race a bit. We head into October with Miami at the top of the pecking order, but lots of teams pretty close behind.
Current ACC title odds, per SP+
1. Miami 24.2%
2. Louisville 20.4%
3. Georgia Tech 10.3%
4. Virginia 10.2%
5. Duke 9.6%
6. Florida State 6.7%
7. SMU 5.1%
The winner of this coming Saturday’s Virginia-Louisville game is going to be awfully well-positioned to nab one of the slots in the ACC championship game. (Of course, knowing this conference’s history, we’ve got 26 more plot twists to go between now and then.)
There were six Big Ten games Saturday, and only one was decided before the final two minutes. I felt smart for suggesting in Friday’s preview that Washington might make Ohio State sweat for a while, but the Huskies’ challenge lasted only about 29 minutes in a 24-6 loss. Otherwise, however, every game was dynamite.
That included the night’s big headliner in Happy Valley, though it certainly took its time reaching a boil. In fact early in the fourth quarter it looked as if this would end up a blowout. After 47:35, Oregon led 17-3, having outgained Penn State by a 352-109 margin. (Yards per play to that point: 5.9 to 2.9.)
Out of nowhere, however, Drew Allar led two pristine touchdown drives, one quick and one languid; a lovely touchdown lob to Devonte Ross made it 17-10 Ducks, and a gorgeously designed pitch to Ross tied the game with 30 seconds left.
Penn State needed only three plays to score in overtime, and Oregon had to gut out a response, converting a fourth-and-1 and then scoring on a cluttered shovel pass up the middle to Jamari Johnson. Penn State still looked like the steadier team heading into the second OT, but two plays later, the game was over. Dante Moore connected with Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard score, and Dillon Thieneman appeared out of nowhere to pick off an Allar sideline pass. That was that.
Oregon is the real deal. The Ducks are No. 1 in SP+ and are getting what they need out of virtually every new and former transfer they’ve had to call upon, from Moore and Bryant, to much of the offensive line, to guys such as Thieneman on defense. And their two best offensive players Saturday night might have been freshmen: running back Dierre Hill Jr. (94 yards from scrimmage) and receiver Dakorien Moore (seven catches for 89 yards). Dante Moore aced the biggest test of his collegiate career, and led by head coach Dan Lanning, who seems to adore coaching in games such as this, the Ducks have won 19 of their past 20 games.
The narrative following this one, of course, focused mostly on the losing team. I tend to hate narratives; they’re almost always lazy and oversimplified, and one of the major reasons I’ve pursued analytics as much as I have over my writing career is that I like shutting narratives down. That goes especially for the “can’t win the big one” trope. Tom Osborne couldn’t win the big one, nor could Bobby Bowden or Mack Brown. They couldn’t, and then they did. James Franklin wears the biggest, brightest “Can’t win the big one!” sign in the sport at the moment, and guess what: Of the 136 programs in FBS, at least 125 of them would trade places with Franklin’s Penn State in a heartbeat. Franklin has been undeniably awesome at his job for quite a while. Almost no team in the sport has proven to be more upset-proof. That the Nittany Lions lose only to awesome teams — and often by small margins — is a sign that they’re an awesome team.
However …
Many of Penn State’s recent losses to awesome teams have followed a very familiar script full of droughts, a lack of offensive ambition and a complete lack of faith in the quarterback. Andy Kotelnicki’s fourth-quarter playcalling was almost note-perfect — he has proven his playcalling chops for quite a while now — but it came after two straight quarters of ineffective nibbling. In last year’s CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame, Penn State scored one TD in its first six drives, then carved down the field beautifully for two late touchdowns. In last year’s Big Ten championship game, the Nittany Lions scored one TD in their first four drives and fell behind 28-10 before finding a rhythm and surging back (only to fall short).
It’s great to hold something in reserve for when you need it, and that’s a clear part of the Penn State approach in big games. But it’s producing awfully similar results, and it’s impossible not to notice that in his seven losses as a starter, Allar has averaged just 171 passing yards per game with a 50% completion rate and a 61.1 Total QBR. (It’s also not hard to notice that in the past two games in which he had a chance to win the game on Penn State’s final drive, he threw almost immediate interceptions.)
If someone says someone “can’t win the big one,” my natural instinct is to roll my eyes and assume the tables will turn pretty soon. But it’s hard to maintain that faith, in either Allar or Penn State, at the moment, not when it feels as if we’re watching reruns.
I feel like the Big 12 should sue the SEC for copyright infringement. An utterly nutty conference title race, loaded with close games and unexpected plot twists, is supposed to be the Big 12’s domain. But with Texas Tech’s early 2025 star turn and high-quality, unbeaten starts for Iowa State and BYU, the Big 12 race is looking pretty straight forward at the moment. Following these two huge Saturday games, however, the SEC’s title race leaves September in a place of glorious disarray.
SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 16.3%
Missouri 12.9%
Oklahoma 11.1%
Alabama 11.1%
Vanderbilt 9.7%
Texas 8.5%
Tennessee 7.2%
Texas A&M 6.2%
Georgia 5.2%
LSU 5.2%
To put that another way, the six above teams that have won a national title in the past 25 years (Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia and LSU) have a combined 48.3% chance of winning the SEC. The other four teams above — which have combined for a single outright conference title in the past 50 years (Texas A&M’s 1998 Big 12 crown) — are at 45.1%.
(Other teams have tiny chances that bring the total to 100%. And no, Oklahoma’s odds aren’t affected by quarterback John Mateer‘s recent hand injury.)
We basically have a 50-50 shot at a team enjoying its first conference title in a very long time.
Brilliant early play from Missouri and Vanderbilt has certainly juiced these odds in their favor a bit, and after last year’s No. 2 finish in SP+, we shouldn’t be all that surprised Ole Miss has a puncher’s shot at a conference crown. But I literally laughed out loud when I saw the list above. The SEC is in an incredibly strange place at the moment, and I’m here for it.
Saturday’s Alabama and Ole Miss wins certainly added to the chaotic vibe, and both came down to clutch late-down conversions. First, Ole Miss outgained LSU by a 480-254 margin and led by 10 at the half and 11 early in the fourth quarter. But the Rebels settled for a field goal in the first quarter and lost a fumble in the end zone in the second, allowing LSU to hang around, and Harlem Berry‘s touchdown with 5:04 left brought the Tigers within five points. When Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss foolishly allowed himself to get pushed out of bounds on a third-down rush, stopping the clock with 1:47 left and bringing up a fourth down, it wasn’t hard to see the Tigers stealing this one. But Chambliss found Dae’Quan Wright for a picture-perfect 20-yard gain on fourth-and-3, and Ole Miss kneeled out the win.
On Saturday evening in Athens, Alabama did what it did early against Georgia last season but changed the script for how things played out late. The Crimson Tide scored on four of their five first-half possessions, racking up 262 yards and a 24-14 halftime lead. Ty Simpson was 11-for-16 for 132 yards, Bama was 5-for-8 on third downs (Georgia was 0-for-3), and everything was working.
And then, in the second half, a rock fight broke out. Bama almost seemed Penn State-esque, going ultra-conservative and saving any actually good offensive plays for when Georgia finally took the lead. Only, it never happened. The Dawgs got to within three points on the first drive of the third quarter, but they punted twice and failed on a fourth-and-1 from the Bama 8 with 13:20 left in the fourth quarter when LT Overton and Deontae Lawson stormed the backfield on a hurry-up snap and knocked Cash Jones off-balance for a 3-yard loss. Georgia never got another shot. Thanks to a 7-yard pass from Simpson to Jam Miller on third-and-5 with 1:51 left, Bama was also able to kneel out the win.
By the way, if you’re a fan of the transitive property, I do have to point out that Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, which beat NC State, which beat Virginia, which beat Florida State, which beat Alabama, which beat Georgia. ODU for the CFP???
Tennessee let a potential upset of Georgia slip through its fingers two weeks ago and is still looking ahead at a schedule that includes trips to Alabama and Florida and visits from Oklahoma and surging Vanderbilt. This was not the time to suffer an upset against an upstart — we know from Ole Miss’ and Alabama’s 2024 experiences that untimely upset losses will doom you awfully quickly — but Mississippi State sure looked like it was going to finish the job early Saturday evening. Despite two defensive touchdowns for the Vols (and a yards-per-play advantage of 6.5 to 4.4 for UT), MSU took the lead on four separate occasions and held a 34-27 advantage midway through the fourth quarter with Tennessee forcing a fourth-and-4. But Joey Aguilar found star receiver Chris Brazzell II for a first down, and Aguilar took in a touchdown on the first play after the two-minute timeout.
Tennessee’s DeSean Bishop scored on the first play of overtime, then Arion Carter broke up a fourth-down pass from Blake Shapen to Anthony Evans III.
If the loose playoff goal for an SEC team is to reach 10-2, this comeback saved Tennessee’s bacon. The Vols still have a 40% chance of reaching 10-2 or better. That number would have been about 10% with a loss here.
Arizona State has won nine straight Big 12 games going back to last season, and four of them were decided by five or fewer points. The last two were decided by 27-24 scores.
This Friday night result seemed rather unlikely. TCU, unbeaten and confident, dominated on the way to a 17-0 lead late in the first half, and after the Sun Devils charged back to tie, Josh Hoover‘s 1-yard touchdown gave the Horned Frogs another lead that they held with two minutes left. But a pair of defensive penalties and a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson tied the game. And then Prince Dorbah made maybe the best play of the entire weekend.
It’s DORBAH ‼️@prince_dorbah pic.twitter.com/fMN1TulfJt
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) September 27, 2025
Dorbah’s strip sack set up a go-ahead field goal for Jesus Gomez, and Martell Hughes‘ interception 25 seconds later clinched the win.
It was fair to assume that, with such an experienced squad, Illinois was going to respond with physicality and quality after last week’s humiliating loss to Indiana. The Illini ended up needing an extra reserve of resilience too.
They led 31-17 with 10 minutes left, but two Makai Lemon touchdowns (and a 2-point conversion from Lemon), combined with an Illinois fumble deep in Trojan territory, gave USC a sudden 32-31 lead with 1:55 remaining. With help from a pass interference penalty, though, Illinois was able to drive to the USC 24 in the closing seconds, and David Olano‘s 41-yard field goal saved the day.
After jumping out to a 14-0 lead against NC State but falling 34-24, Wake Forest came even closer to an upset Saturday. The Demon Deacons led 20-3 early in the second half and had a chance to close out a 23-20 upset with less than two minutes left. But Robby Ashford, thinking Tech had jumped offside on a third-and-5 and he had a free play, threw an incomplete deep ball, stopping the clock. No flag was thrown — the Tech defender was in the process of jumping back behind the line of scrimmage when the ball was snapped and came awfully close — and Wake was forced to punt. With the extra seconds, Tech drove for a field goal and picked off a 2-point pass in overtime to somehow keep its unbeaten record intact.
In a game neither team led by more than 7 points, Central Connecticut looked to have forced overtime with a short Michael Trovarelli touchdown with 58 seconds left. But unfortunately for the Blue Devils, they, um, forgot to cover Ky’Dric Fisher.
THE GAME WINNING TOUCHDOWN CATCH BY KY’DRIC FISHER pic.twitter.com/QhMeLe858F
— Dartmouth Football (@DartmouthFTBL) September 27, 2025
I can’t really say Kansas did a ton wrong here — the Jayhawks got a huge day from Jalon Daniels (445 passing yards and four TDs) and Emmanuel Henderson (214 receiving yards and two of those scores) and basically split third downs with the Bearcats and committed far fewer penalties. But Cincy’s Brendan Sorsby completed passes to nine different receivers and threw two touchdown passes to Cyrus Allen.
When Levi Wentz gave KU its first lead in nearly 55 minutes with a short touchdown reception with 1:45 left, the Jayhawks left too much time on the clock. Sorsby completed a fourth-and-10 pass to Noah Jennings, and Tawee Walker plunged in with the game-winning points with 29 seconds on the clock.
The longer the road trip, the better the Cal result. The Golden Bears beat Auburn, Wake Forest and Pitt on the road last season, and despite a dreadful start in Chestnut Hill — Boston College led 14-0 after just eight minutes — they produced a win in their longest ACC road trip yet. Kendrick Raphael gave Cal its first lead with 13:47 left, but Turbo Richard‘s 71-yard turbo boost made it 24-21 BC. After a fourth-down pass interference call bought Cal time, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hit Mason Mini down the left sideline for a 51-yard score.
0:25
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini
BC drove the length of the field, but Luke Ferrelli stepped in front of a Dylan Lonergan pass and the Golden Bears prevailed.
Oregon State can’t catch a break. After watching a late lead against Fresno State disappear earlier in the season, the winless Beavers played their best game of the season and led 24-10 with six minutes left. But Conner Weigman threw touchdown passes to Stephon Johnson and Tanner Koziol, and when a late Maalik Murphy-to-Trent Walker completion set up a shot at a game-winning field goal for OSU, basically the entire Cougar lineup broke into the backfield to block it.
0:31
Houston blocks Oregon State’s winning FG attempt to force OT
Multiple Houston defenders break through to block Cameron Smith’s winning field goal attempt for Oregon State.
It was Houston’s second blocked field goal of the night, and it made the ending feel preordained. In overtime, Brandon Mack and Zelmar Vedder stuffed OSU’s Cornell Hatcher Jr. on fourth-and-1, then Ethan Sanchez nailed the 24-yarder to keep Houston unbeaten.
Indiana passed yet another test, taking on upset-minded Iowa in Iowa City and misfiring for much of the middle of the game. Trailing 13-10 with less than 10 minutes left, the Hoosiers got a 44-yard field goal from Nico Radicic and a 49-yard catch-and-go from Elijah Sarratt to take the lead. This being an Iowa game, a late safety was legally required, but Indiana held on.
Last week, San Diego trailed Princeton 35-14 in the second quarter before storming back to win, 42-35. The Toreros decided the only way to follow that up was to spot St. Thomas a 27-10 lead midway through the third quarter. After a 54-yard touchdown pass from Dom Nankil to Cole Monarch cut the Tommies’ lead to 27-24, two fourth-quarter field goals from Emiliano Salazar — including a 25-yarder with two seconds left — sealed another wild comeback.
15. Div. II: No. 8 California (Pa.) 45, No. 4 Slippery Rock 38
As with FBS, Division II’s biggest game of the week went down to the wire. In front of 7,670 in Slippery Rock, Cal scored five touchdowns in 13 minutes to take a shocking 35-14 lead, but the Rock slowly reeled the Vulcans in. Kevin Roberts’ early-fourth-quarter field goal gave Slippery Rock a 38-35 lead, but Cal quickly retied the game, then took the win with Kendrick Agenor’s 14-yard touchdown run with 60 seconds left.
It was almost overshadowed by the two other wild Saturday afternoon SEC games, but A&M almost let one slip through its grasp.
The Aggies erased the Auburn defense and outgained the Tigers, 414-177, but their last six scoring chances resulted in five field goal attempts (two missed) and an interception that Xavier Atkins returned 73 yards to set up a short score. Somehow Auburn got the ball with a chance to win at the end, but poor Jackson Arnold got crushed by Dayon Hayes on fourth down — A&M’s fifth sack of the day and the 15th time Arnold has been sacked in two weeks — and the Aggies survived.
San José State did almost everything right. The Spartans methodically built a 12-point fourth-quarter lead as their in-game win probability crept over 90%. But the Cardinal drove 80 yards in the final three minutes, thanks in part to a 34-yard Caden High reception on fourth-and-10, and Sedrick Irvin‘s short touchdown gave them the lead with 19 seconds left. SJSU nearly drove into field goal range, but Leland Smith couldn’t hold onto a pass over the middle, and the Spartans came up short.
18. Div. III: Alma 29, No. 15 Hope 26
19. Div. III: Maryville 34, Pikeville 30
Big week for Scots! Both the Alma Scots and Maryville Scots came up with late heroics. In front of 3,206 in Holland, Michigan, Alma took down no-longer-unbeaten Hope by bolting to an early 14-0 lead and holding on for dear life. Hope tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation but had to settle for a field goal in the first overtime. Facing fourth-and-goal from the 2, Alma went for the win and got it thanks to a touchdown pass from Carter St. John to Miles Haggart.
About 600 miles south in Maryville, Tennessee, Maryville looked as if it would cruise over NAIA’s Pikeville in front of 5,576. The Scots led 27-10 late in the first half, but a 20-0 run put the visitors on top. No worries! Maryville drove 86 yards in 44 seconds, and Bryson Rollins found Jalen McCullough with 35 seconds left to save the day.
For the second straight week, Rutgers enticed a rock-fight connoisseur into a track meet of sorts — Iowa last week, Minnesota this week — but couldn’t actually win it. A 4-yard Drake Lindsay-to-Javon Tracy touchdown gave the Gophers the lead with 3:19 left, but Rutgers worked the ball into field goal range until a devastating, 15-yard Rushawn Lawrence sack of Athan Kaliakmanis forced Dane Pizzaro to attempt a 56-yarder. He missed.
Hell yeah, Hokies. After starting 2025 so dismally that head coach Brent Pry was fired after just three games, Tech has won two straight. Terion Stewart enjoyed a breakout performance with 174 rushing yards, Kyron Drones threw two touchdown passes and Christian Ellis broke up a fourth-and-1 pass with 42 seconds left to clinch the win.
22. NAIA: No. 15 Dordt 21, No. 14 Northwestern (Iowa) 20
Dordt entered Week 5 as NAIA’s No. 1 team, per SP+, and the Defenders rallied to score a big road win over the 2022 national champs. After trailing 17-0 late in the second quarter, they took their first lead with just 13 seconds left, when Connor Dodd capped a 93-yard drive with a 4-yard TD catch.
This was easily UCLA’s best chance at avoiding a winless 2025 season, but as with their loss to UNLV, they spotted their hosts a big early lead and couldn’t quite catch up. They cut a 17-0 deficit to 17-14 with six minutes left, but two last-ditch drives went nowhere.
Pitt made this one as messy and chaotic as Pat Narduzzi could have hoped and bolted to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, but the Panthers couldn’t hold on. Louisville remained unbeaten by pitching a second-half shutout; the Cardinals took their first lead with 7:03 remaining, and their third interception of the day, with four seconds left, closed things out.
25. Div. II: No. 17 Central Washington 91, Western New Mexico 31
I had to end this list with one of the most confounding box scores I’ve ever seen.
Total yards: CWU 499, WNMU 468
First downs: WNMU 24, CWU 20
Red zone trips: CWU 6, WNMU 4
Touchdowns: CWU 13, WNMU 4
What??
CWU played an almost perfect first quarter, gaining 253 yards in 14 snaps and going up 35-0. The Wildcats then proceeded to score touchdowns on a kickoff return, another kickoff return two minutes later and a third-quarter pick-six. And because of turnovers and special teams, they had touchdown drives of 5, 40, 44 and 47 yards. And they managed to score nearly 100 points with less than 500 yards. College football is only ever allowed to make so much sense.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (26-for-34 passing for 321 yards, 5 TDs and an INT, plus 83 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Utah State).
2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (20-for-26 passing for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 36 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against USC).
3. CJ Carr, Notre Dame (22-for-30 passing for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns against Arkansas).
4. Dante Moore, Oregon (29-for-39 passing for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 35 non-sack rushing yards against Penn State).
5. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24-for-38 passing for 276 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Georgia).
6. Prince Dorbah, Arizona State (4 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery against TCU).
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (23-for-39 passing for 314 yards, a TD and an INT, plus 71 non-sack rushing yards against LSU).
8. Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati (29-for-43 passing for 388 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards against Kansas).
9. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (19-for-28 passing for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 58 non-sack rushing yards against Cincinnati).
10. Xavier Atkins, Auburn (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, a sack, a forced fumble and a 73-yard interception return against Texas A&M).
I wrote about awesome running backs last week, but Week 5 belonged to quarterbacks. CJ Carr enjoyed by far the best performance of his career, and the winners of the two huge night games, Bama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore, both shined. But I gave the top two spots to a couple of veteran overachievers. Luke Altmyer completed four passes of 25-plus yards, all in the second half, and produced a 97.5 Total QBR rating. Diego Pavia, meanwhile, remains Diego Pavia: absurdly efficient via run and pass. He produced 404 total yards and six touchdowns, and if he wasn’t already in the Heisman discussion, he should be now.
Honorable mention:
• Micah Alejado, Hawaii (35-for-47 passing for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns against Air Force).
• Raleek Brown, Arizona State (21 carries for 134 yards, plus 50 receiving yards against TCU).
• Greg Desrosiers Jr., Memphis (19 carries for 204 yards and 3 touchdowns against FAU).
• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (16 carries for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 78 receiving yards and a touchdown against South Alabama).
• Emmanuel Henderson, Kansas (5 catches for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cincinnati).
• Trent Hendrick, JMU (11 tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Georgia Southern).
• Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (24-for-35 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Oklahoma State)
• Nate Sheppard, Duke (15 carries for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 33 receiving yards against Syracuse).
• Liam Szarka, Air Force (10-for-12 passing for 278 yards, 3 TDs and an INT, plus 152 non-sack rushing yards against Hawaii).
Through five weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (21 points)
2T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15 points)
2T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15 points)
4. Jayden Maiava, USC (12 points)
5T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)
5T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10 points)
5T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10 points)
5T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
9T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (nine points)
9T. Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)
9T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (nine points)
9T. Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)
9T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (nine points)
We’re seeing the beginnings of a sync-up between the points race and the betting odds. Obviously, Taylen Green (tied for second in the points race) isn’t a serious Heisman candidate, but points leader Ty Simpson is up to No. 3 in the betting odds, and Mendoza, Pavia, Stockton and Chambliss are in the top 10 of both the points and the odds. Still, it’s incredible how little has been settled as we approach the midway point of the season.
Arkansas fired Sam Pittman on Sunday, parting ways with the popular and folksy coach who couldn’t get the Razorbacks into the upper echelon of the SEC with a middling overall record of 32-34.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, a former head coach at Arkansas before he left in scandal, was appointed interim head coach for the remainder of the season.
“I want to thank coach Pittman for his service and dedication to the University of Arkansas throughout his time as head coach,” athletic director Hunter Yurachek said in a statement. “From Day 1, you could tell how much this opportunity meant to him. At this time, however, I feel a change is necessary to put our student-athletes and program in the best position to be successful. The goal for our football program is to be highly competitive within the Southeastern Conference and compete for a national championship.”
Because Pittman’s overall record since 2021 was above .500 (29-27), per his contract Arkansas owes him a buyout of nearly $9.8 million.
Pittman was the fourth power conference coach fired this season — all in the final two weeks of September — following Brent Pry at Virginia Tech, DeShaun Foster at UCLA and Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State.
The move at Arkansas came one day after the Razorbacks fell to 2-3 with a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame. The Hogs have this week off before a game at Tennessee on Oct. 11.
Pittman, 63, was named the Razorbacks’ 34th head coach in December 2019.
“As we move forward in the process of finding our next head coach, I am certain we will be able to provide the necessary resources to our staff and team to reach our goals. We will begin a national search for our next head coach immediately and that search will include Coach Petrino, who has expressed his desire to be a candidate for the full-time job,” Yurachek said.
Petrino, 64, was rehired by Arkansas in November 2023 after serving in a number of jobs. In four years leading the Razorbacks, Petrino went 34-17, including consecutive double-digit-victory seasons in 2010 and 2011.
He had the Razorbacks rolling when in April 2012 he was involved in a single-vehicle motorcycle crash that left him with four broken ribs. At first, he said he was riding alone, but a police report revealed a woman was riding with him. The woman turned out to be a former Arkansas athlete who was in a romantic relationship with the married Petrino. The coach had given her a job in the football program and a $20,000 gift.
He was fired by then-athletic director Jeff Long for misleading his bosses about what happened with the accident and his relationship with the football staffer.
ESPN’s Pete Thamel and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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