Iran may decide that killing Americans is the best way to retaliate
The US president has given the Iranians a choice: negotiate or face devastating escalation.
The next move is down to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
He has spent his entire life trying to roll back American power and influence in the region.
Expecting him to negotiate with the US now, with B-2 bombers held to his head, is a tall order.
More likely, he will order some kind of retaliation – at least for now.
He will want to deter Donald Trump from launching more attacks and may calculate that killing Americans is the best way of doing so.
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The ayatollah knows that could drive a wedge between Trump and his MAGA supporters, who say America is getting drawn into yet another Middle Eastern war, risking US lives.
There are plenty of US targets for Iran to aim at, with bases throughout the Middle East: in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
The Iranians could attack them directly with drones and missiles, or use proxies in the region, Iran-backed militias in Iraq, or the Houthis, based in Yemen.
Iran could threaten shipping and the oil industry in the Persian Gulf. If the Gulf becomes a war zone, expect a big hit to the global economy and the price of oil to rocket.
But all that would invite massive retaliation from the US. The Trump administration has spelt that out in no uncertain terms.
America has sent an awesome amount of firepower to the region: three aircraft carrier groups bristling with fighter jets and submarines loaded with cruise missiles.
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So the Iranians may instead go for the kind of asymmetric warfare they excel at. The UK could be in the firing line too. We could see Iranian terrorist attacks here in Britain.
One way or another, this is almost certain to escalate, but could it widen and draw other countries into the conflict?
Russia and Iran have a strategic partnership agreement, but it doesn’t require Russia to come to Tehran’s support.
Iran is also China’s closest ally in the Middle East, but Beijing is also likely to sit this one out and watch from the sidelines.
Wars have unintended consequences, but there are strong reasons for other powers to avoid becoming involved in this one.
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Looking further ahead, there are two competing priorities to watch. For Iran’s leadership, it is all about survival, to absorb the blows and live to fight another day, and eventually build the bomb if it can, to stop this ever happening to them again.
And Israel is equally determined that will not happen.
One method would be regime change in Iran, but its leadership is proving resilient so far, despite the mounting challenges it faces.
Instead, Israel faces a long period of managing the threat posed by Iran.
It will need to monitor the Iranians, watching for signs they are developing their missile programme, meddling in the region or reviving their nuclear project, and cut them down to size when necessary.
That could mean years more of military action and could be hugely costly for Israel and its backers, the US taxpayers.
In summary, Iran’s leadership is in a very tight spot and is likely to lash out, but the future will not be a walk in the park for Israel, either, while there are big risks for America, too.
World
Tomorrowland: ‘Devastating’ blaze destroys main stage at major festival – two days before it was due to begin
A huge fire has destroyed the main stage of a major festival in Belgium – two days before it was due to begin.
Tomorrowland is a dance music event as big as Glastonbury – and David Guetta was due to perform.
Footage showed flames and thick plumes of black smoke engulfing the stage and spreading to nearby woodland on Wednesday.
The fire gutted the main stage
Fire crews attempt to bring the blaze under control
The annual festival in the town of Boom, north of Brussels, is one of the biggest in Europe and attracts about 400,000 people over two consecutive weekends.
It is famous for its immersive and elaborate designs and attracts big names within dance music – including Guetta, best known for tracks When Love Takes Over and Titanium.
Dutch DJs Martin Garrix and Charlotte de Witte were also due to perform, along with the likes of Swedish House Mafia, Eric Prydz and Alok.
Black smoke could be seen rising into the sky
The festival’s website described the creative elements which went into the elaborate main stage.
The theme, described as Orbyz, was “set in a magical universe made entirely out of ice” and “full of mythical creatures”.
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Organisers said no one was injured in the blaze but confirmed “our beloved main stage has been severely damaged”, adding they were “devastated”.
Spokesperson Debby Wilmsen added: “We received some truly terrible news today. A fire broke out on the Tomorrowland site … and our main stage was essentially destroyed there, which is truly awful.
“That’s a stage that took years to build, with so much love and passion. So I think a lot of people are devastated.”
Spokesperson Debby Wilmsen told reporters ‘a lot of people are devastated’
Despite the fire, Tomorrowland organisers said they were still expecting 38,000 festivalgoers at DreamVille, the event’s campsite.
Israel has shown little respect for international borders since becoming the unrivalled military hegemon of the Middle East. Today that meant an Israeli airstrike on a government building in Damascus.
Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.
Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.
Smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike that hit the Syrian Defence Ministry in Damascus. Pic: AP
On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.
“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.
In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.
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Syrian presenter interrupted by Israeli airstrike
The Syrian armour was attacked as it entered the area around Sweida in the Druze heartland of southern Syria following factional fighting there.
The flare-up reportedly began with clashes between Bedouin and Druze groups that ended in scores killed.
The background to the escalation is complicated.
At least three Druze militia groups are divided in their loyalties to different religious leaders and differ over how they should respond to calls to assimilate into the new post-revolutionary Syria.
Druze from Syria and Israel protest on the Israeli-Syrian border.
Pic: AP
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Israel is becoming more and more involved in Syria’s internecine war and says it will remain there indefinitely “to protect our communities and thwart any threat”.
Its critics say Israel is operating a policy of divide and rule in Syria, weakening the fledgling government and creating a buffer zone to protect the border with the Golan Heights – originally Syrian territory that it has occupied and annexed for almost half a century.
Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has used airstrikes to destroy of much of Syria’s military capability weakening its ability to impose control on outlying regions. This makes it more not less likely Israel will have a volatile unstable state on its northern border.
Syrian security forces walk along a street in the southern Druze city of Sweida. Pic: Reuters
America and European powers have chosen to normalise relations with the new government in Damascus and lift sanctions.
In contrast Israel has occupied its territory, bombed its military and today hit one of its government buildings in the capital with an airstrike.
Since its crushing military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, Israel has emerged as the unchallenged military power of the region.
There is however a limit to what blunt force can achieve alone. It requires diplomacy to achieve lasting gains and Israel’s repeated assaults on multiple neighbours combined with its relentless campaign in Gaza are winning it few friends in the region.
Israeli airstrikes have targeted the Syrian military headquarters in Damascus amid renewed clashes in the country.
The gate of the Ministry of Defence in the Syrian capital was targeted by two warning missiles from an Israeli reconnaissance aircraft.
State-owned Elekhbariya TV said the Israeli strike had wounded two civilians, the Reuters news agency reported.
Smoke rises from Syria’s defence ministry building in Damascus. Pic: Reuters
It came as Israeli airstrikes targeted security and army vehicles in the southern city of Sweida, where the Druze faith is one of the major religious groups – marking the third consecutive day Israel has struck Syrian forces.
The Israeli military confirmed it had “struck the entrance gate” in Damascus – and that it would be monitoring “actions being taken against Druze civilians in southern Syria”.
The Israeli airstrike targeted Syria’s military headquarters. Pic: AP
Why Israel is getting involved in Syria’s internal fighting
Israel has shown little respect for international borders since becoming the unrivalled military hegemon of the Middle East. Today that meant an Israeli airstrike on a government building in Damascus.
Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.
Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.
On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.
“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.
In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.
Local media said Sweida and nearby villages were coming under heavy artillery and mortar fire on Wednesday, according to Reuters.
The clashes marked the collapse of a ceasefire between Syrian government forces and Druze armed groups, with Israel also warning it would increase its involvement.
Syria said its forces had responded to being fired upon. Pic: Reuters
Israel said it was acting to protect the Druze groups through its attacks on convoys of Syrian forces.
Syria blamed militias in Sweida for violating a ceasefire agreement which had only been reached on Tuesday.
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A statement from its defence ministry said: “Military forces continue to respond to the source of fire inside the city of Sweida, while adhering to rules of engagement to protect residents, prevent harm, and ensure the safe return of those who left the city back to their homes.”
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said the military will continue to strike Syrian forces until they withdraw and should “leave Druze alone”, according to local reports.
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