Redrafting the top 10 picks in every MLB draft from 2015 to 2024
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David Schoenfield
The 2025 MLB draft is around the corner, with the first round beginning July 13.
There are a lot of challenges in baseball. Hitting sometimes seems impossible given the velocity and stuff from pitchers these days, and for those pitchers, throwing quality strikes is a test and staying healthy a huge challenge. But the most difficult thing in the sport might be drafting. It’s one thing to scout tools, it’s another to project an 18-year-old high school kid as a 25-year-old major leaguer. Finding the baseball players among the athletes or the velocity kings seems more difficult nowadays than ever.
How difficult is it? We went through the past 10 drafts, from 2015 through 2024, and redrafted the top 10 selections. Leaving aside the two most recent drafts, whose players are still very early in their evaluation, only 16 of 80 top-10 selections made the redrafted top 10. Two of the drafts are 0-for-10 in any of their top-10 selections ranking in the redrafted top 10. This helps explain why teams such as the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins remained mired in the muck of the standings: They haven’t drafted well. (Although the Pirates at least got the No. 1 pick in 2023 right and might have crushed last year’s top-10 pick as well.)
Let’s go back through the past 10 drafts to see what the redrafts look like right now. View this through the lens of a specific moment in the baseball timeline. If we redo this piece in a few years, it will look much different than it does now, especially for the more recent drafts.
Jump to a draft:
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024
2015
New pick: Alex Bregman | Original pick: Dansby Swanson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
New pick: Kyle Tucker | Original pick: Alex Bregman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
New pick: Austin Riley | Original pick: Brendan Rodgers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 41
New pick: Dansby Swanson | Original pick: Dillon Tate
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
5. Houston Astros
New pick: Ian Happ | Original pick: Kyle Tucker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
New pick: Walker Buehler | Original pick: Tyler Jay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
New pick: Andrew Benintendi | Original pick: Andrew Benintendi
New pick: Brandon Lowe | Original pick: Carson Fulmer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 87
9. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cedric Mullins | Original pick: Ian Happ
Where new pick was originally drafted: 403
New pick: Tyler Stephenson | Original pick: Cornelius Randolph
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
Other notable players from 2015: Harrison Bader, Jake Cronenworth, Paul DeJong, Trent Grisham, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ryan Helsley, Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Naylor
Best draft: Houston Astros. They crushed it by taking Bregman and Tucker with the second and fifth picks, plus eight others who made the majors, including Myles Straw and Patrick Sandoval. Indeed, while Bregman currently has about 17 more career WAR than Tucker, given that Tucker is three years younger, he might end up as the best player in this draft.
Honorable mention goes to the St. Louis Cardinals, who drafted Bader and Jordan Hicks in the third round and then DeJong and Helsley in Rounds 4 and 5.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Cornelius Randolph. Viewed as perhaps the top high school bat in the draft, Randolph ended up the second high school player selected after Tucker in a college-heavy first round. Randolph didn’t hit for average or much power and never made it past Double-A — although he’s still playing professionally in the Mexican League.
Overview: This wasn’t viewed as a strong draft at the time — Keith Law, then an ESPN analyst, had called it the weakest at the top since 2000 — and that has held true a decade later, with a dearth of stars and even some of the better players such as Swanson relying heavily on defense for their value.
The Astros had the second pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken the year before, and Bregman was in the big leagues for them a year later. Tucker was chosen with their regular selection at No. 5, and then they used another first-round pick to select Daz Cameron, who turned into one of the key players used to acquire Justin Verlander in 2017.
The oddest story out of this draft came courtesy of the short-lived Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart regime in Arizona. After selecting Swanson with the first pick, the Diamondbacks traded him and a good outfielder in Ender Inciarte (coming off a 5.0-WAR season) to Atlanta for Shelby Miller in December 2015.
“I think the Diamondbacks are nuts,” Law said at the time. “It’s one thing to win now. It’s another to just give away surplus value.”
The deal backfired for Arizona when Miller immediately got hurt to start the 2016 season and struggled thereafter, contributing to the team going 69-93, which cost La Russa and Stewart their jobs.
2016
1. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Will Smith | Original pick: Mickey Moniak
Where new pick was originally drafted: 32
New pick: Corbin Burnes | Original pick: Nick Senzel
Where new pick was originally drafted: 111
New pick: Pete Alonso | Original pick: Ian Anderson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 64
4. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Bo Bichette | Original pick: Riley Pint
Where new pick was originally drafted: 66
New pick: Zac Gallen | Original pick: Corey Ray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 106
New pick: Shane Bieber | Original pick: A.J. Puk
Where new pick was originally drafted: 122
7. Miami Marlins
New pick: Tommy Edman | Original pick: Braxton Garrett
Where new pick was originally drafted: 196
New pick: Bryan Reynolds | Original pick: Cal Quantrill
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
New pick: Sean Murphy | Original pick: Matt Manning
Where new pick was originally drafted: 83
10. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Michael King | Original pick: Zack Collins
Where new pick was originally drafted: 353
Other notable players from 2016: TJ Friedl, Tony Gonsolin, Austin Hays, Josh Lowe, Nathaniel Lowe, Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, Cole Ragans
Best draft: Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers snagged Lux with the No. 20 pick and then college catcher Smith with the 32nd selection — and 12 others who have reached the majors. Gonsolin and Dustin May are two of those players and have shown flashes of success interspersed with many injuries, but both remain on the Dodgers’ roster (Gonsolin is currently injured again). Another honorable mention to the Cardinals for their midround magic, taking Gallen in the third round and Edman in the sixth, although Gallen was traded alongside Sandy Alcantara to the Marlins as part of the Marcell Ozuna trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Riley Pint. A high school right-hander from Kansas, Pint routinely hit 100 mph — topping out at 102 — and was regarded as perhaps the hardest-throwing high school pitcher of all time. The Rockies took him with the fourth pick, with some viewing him as possessing the highest ceiling in the draft. Alas … that was not the case.
“Despite his clean arm action, he has a head-jerk at release that could make it hard for him to throw consistent strikes,” Law wrote on ESPN. Pint did have trouble throwing strikes, and while he retired temporarily in 2021, he at least managed to briefly reach the majors with the Rockies in 2023-24.
Overview: In a draft that lacked a clear-cut No. 1 selection, the Phillies went with California high school outfielder Moniak, regarded as the best pure hitter in the draft. He has made more than 1,000 plate appearances in the majors but has never mastered the strike zone and has a career on-base percentage under .300.
He’s not the only first-round pick who didn’t make it big, however. In fact, the top 30 picks have combined for just one All-Star appearance — Ragans, the 30th selection, made it last year with the Royals. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t talent available. The 10 players we redrafted above have combined for 18 All-Star appearances and two Cy Young Awards, from Burnes and Bieber. They were both fourth-round picks, Burnes out of Saint Mary’s College and Bieber out of UC Santa Barbara. Burnes just underwent Tommy John surgery, though, while Bieber is on the mend from his TJ surgery last year, so their career values might now be more limited.
2017
1. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Hunter Greene | Original pick: Royce Lewis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Daulton Varsho | Original pick: Hunter Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 68
3. San Diego Padres
New pick: MacKenzie Gore | Original pick: MacKenzie Gore
New pick: David Peterson | Original pick: Brendan McKay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
5. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Royce Lewis | Original pick: Kyle Wright
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Bailey Ober | Original pick: Austin Beck
Where new pick was originally drafted: 346
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Brent Rooker | Original pick: Pavin Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 35
8. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Mark Vientos | Original pick: Adam Haseley
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
9. Milwaukee Brewers
New pick: Heliot Ramos | Original pick: Keston Hiura
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
New pick: Jose Caballero | Original pick: Jo Adell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 202
Other notable players from 2017: Shane Baz, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Houck, Jake Meyers, Clarke Schmidt, JP Sears, Taylor Walls
Best draft: Minnesota Twins. The Twins drafted three players who made our top-10 redraft list in Lewis (whom they did choose with the first overall pick), Rooker (No. 35) and Ober (a 12th-round pick), although Lewis’ ranking remains more speculative in the hopes that he can figure out a way to remain healthy and produce some offense. He hasn’t done either so far in 2025.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Keston Hiura. While other picks — such as McKay and Wright — were sidetracked by injuries, Hiura quickly reached the majors in 2019 and looked like a future star after hitting .303/.368/.570 in 84 games. A lot of players had phony numbers that season, however, and his high strikeout rate caught up to him in 2020. He has spent most of the past three seasons in the minors.
Overview: In the 2015 overview, we pointed out that year’s draft class was viewed as the worst since 2000. Well, 2017 was viewed at the time as perhaps even weaker than 2015.
“You’ve probably heard by now, from me or from others who cover the draft, that this year’s class is weaker than normal,” Law wrote in his draft rankings. “I still believe this is true, perhaps even more today than I did a month ago.”
While there is still time for some players here to improve, they’re running out of time: The college players are now 29 or 30 years old, and the high school draftees are in their mid-20s. The only players with even 10 career WAR so far are Varsho and Greene, with Ober getting close. Heck, Taylor Walls, a player with a career average under .200, actually ranks fourth in career WAR thanks to his outstanding defense — but that merely confirms how weak this class has been.
In fact, at the time of his ranking, Law wrote that even the 2000 class had produced eight players with 30 WAR (it’s now nine). That class also has two potential Hall of Famers in Yadier Molina and Chase Utley, a 200-game winner in Adam Wainwright and Cy Young winners in Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb (plus some great hitters in Adrian Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista). While the first round in 2000 was weak, there was plenty of talent later in the draft. The 2017 draft was weak in both areas — and maybe will go down as the weakest draft of all time.
2018
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Tarik Skubal | Original pick: Casey Mize
Where new pick was originally drafted: 255
New pick: Cal Raleigh | Original pick: Joey Bart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 90
3. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Jeremy Pena | Original pick: Alec Bohm
Where new pick was originally drafted: 102
4. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Steven Kwan | Original pick: Nick Madrigal
Where new pick was originally drafted: 163
5. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Nico Hoerner | Original pick: Jonathan India
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
New pick: Logan Gilbert | Original pick: Jarred Kelenic
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
7. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jarren Duran | Original pick: Ryan Weathers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 220
8. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Joe Ryan | Original pick: Carter Stewart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 210
9. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Brice Turang | Original pick: Kyler Murray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 21
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Lawrence Butler | Original pick: Travis Swaggerty
Where new pick was originally drafted: 173
Other notable players from 2018: Kyle Bradish, Kris Bubic, Triston Casas, Brendan Donovan, Xavier Edwards, Ryan Jeffers, Shane McClanahan, Lars Nootbaar, Logan O’Hoppe, Drew Rasmussen, Grayson Rodriguez, Brady Singer
Best draft: Seattle Mariners. You could go with the Tampa Bay Rays, who showed their penchant for identifying pitchers with Matthew Liberatore (first round), McClanahan (first round), Taj Bradley (fifth round) and Ryan (seventh round). The Tigers also got Mize, Skubal and Parker Meadows. But we’ll go with Seattle’s draft, even though it’s just two players in Raleigh and Gilbert. Given the scarcity of good catchers, Raleigh has a case as the potential No. 1 pick in a redraft, especially with what he’s doing in 2025, but Skubal might be on his way to a second straight Cy Young Award, giving him that first selection in our redraft.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Kyler Murray/Carter Stewart. This draft had two of the more curious outcomes in recent draft history. Murray’s story is well known. The A’s pulled a mild surprise in taking him ninth overall even though he had played just one full season of baseball at Oklahoma. They gave him a $4.66 million signing bonus and agreed to let him play one more year of college football before beginning his baseball career. Murray won the Heisman Trophy that fall and ditched baseball for the NFL.
Stewart’s story is less known. A big high school right-hander from Florida, Stewart was up to 98 mph with a high-spin curveball. He was No. 2 on ESPN’s draft board and No. 5 on MLB.com’s, and he went eighth to the Braves. A wrist injury reportedly caused the Braves to lower their bonus offer, which Stewart declined to sign and he enrolled in junior college instead. Rather than waiting for the 2019 draft, however, he signed to play in Japan with the Fukuoaka Soft Bank Hawks on a six-year deal worth a reported $6 million — becoming the first U.S.-born first-round pick to sign his first professional contract with a Japanese team.
After some time in the Japanese minor leagues, Stewart had a breakout season in 2024, posting a 1.95 ERA in 120 innings. Along the way, he signed a two-year, $10 million extension. He has been injured so far in 2025 and hasn’t pitched, but he would still be just 27 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after 2026.
Overview: While this draft hasn’t necessarily produced a long list of big stars, the overall depth is impressive — even though the top 10 selections have been underwhelming, with India leading that group with less than 7 career WAR. Mize was the no-doubt top pick after a dominant junior season at Auburn and, after a slow start to his career and Tommy John surgery in 2022, is having his best season in 2025. The Giants would have been better off selecting a different ACC catcher than Bart (Georgia Tech) as the Mariners got Raleigh (Florida State) in the third round.
The steal of the draft, of course, has been Skubal, a ninth-round pick out of Seattle University. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missed the 2017 season, although he returned to throw some bullpens before the draft. The Diamondbacks took him in the 29th round, but he returned to school. Even though he was up to 95 mph, his wildness scared teams off.
A key to the long-term value of this draft will be the health of the pitchers. Mize, Rasmussen and Bubic have already returned from injuries (multiple Tommy John surgeries in Rasmussen’s case). Bradish, McClanahan and Rodriguez have yet to pitch in 2025, and Gilbert is currently on the injured list as well.
2019
New pick: Bobby Witt Jr. | Original pick: Adley Rutschman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
New pick: Gunnar Henderson | Original pick: Bobby Witt Jr.
Where new pick was originally drafted: 42
3. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Corbin Carroll | Original pick: Andrew Vaughn
Where new pick was originally drafted: 16
4. Miami Marlins
New pick: Riley Greene | Original pick: JJ Bleday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
5. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Adley Rutschman | Original pick: Riley Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. San Diego Padres
New pick: CJ Abrams | Original pick: CJ Abrams
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Hunter Brown | Original pick: Nick Lodolo
Where new pick was originally drafted: 166
8. Texas Rangers
New pick: Michael Harris II | Original pick: Josh Jung
Where new pick was originally drafted: 98
9. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Anthony Volpe | Original pick: Shea Langeliers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
10. San Francisco Giants
New pick: George Kirby | Original pick: Hunter Bishop
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
Other notable players from 2019: Michael Busch, Kerry Carpenter, Brenton Doyle, Tyler Fitzgerald, Hunter Gaddis, Nick Lodolo, Vinnie Pasquantino, Ryan Pepiot, Josh Smith, Spencer Steer, Bryson Stott, Matt Wallner
Best draft: Baltimore Orioles. Rutschman was the consensus top player after a stellar career at Oregon State that saw him hit .411/.575/.751 his draft year, and the Orioles ended up going chalk by taking him at No. 1 after some smoke they might go in a different direction. Henderson was the first pick of the second round out of an Alabama high school, with concerns about his ability to stay at shortstop and ultimate power upside, but he has proven skeptics wrong on both accounts. The Orioles also got Kyle Stowers later in Round 2 and Joey Ortiz in Round 4, both later traded for pitching help.
The Diamondbacks drafted eight players who have since made the majors, including Carroll out of a Seattle high school with the 16th pick. Another honorable mention to the Braves, who got Harris in the third round, Langeliers in the first round (part of the Matt Olson trade) and Vaughn Grissom in the 11th round (traded for Chris Sale).
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Andrew Vaughn. The third pick out of Cal, Vaughn was viewed as a sure thing, a polished college hitter on par with Rutschman. In college, he combined a high average with power and plate discipline (104 walks to 51 strikeouts his sophomore and junior seasons), but he has hit just .248/.303/.407 in the majors. The White Sox finally gave up and recently traded him to the Brewers, who sent him to the minors. His plate discipline didn’t translate to the pros and a slow bat has limited damage on contact.
Overview: Witt gets first slot in the redraft over Henderson. Witt was second or third on most predraft boards, although there was some concern that he was already 19 years old at draft time — a big red flag for teams who follow draft models that view older high schoolers as a negative. Obviously it wasn’t, and Witt is now one of the game’s biggest stars. I have Greene ahead of Rutschman in the redraft on account of age — he’s three years younger — and current level of production. You could make a similar argument for Abrams. Brown is climbing this list, while Harris burst on the scene with a Rookie of the Year season in 2022, but his offense has stagnated the past two seasons due to a hyper-aggressive approach that has him with one of the highest chase rates in the majors.
Still, after the mediocre returns from the 2015-17 drafts, this looks a little more like what you might think a top 10 should look like, with at least three major stars in Witt, Henderson and Carroll leading the way. It’s not a historic class, but it’s a reminder that most drafts aren’t loaded with future stars.
2020
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong | Original pick: Spencer Torkelson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
2. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Garrett Crochet | Original pick: Heston Kjerstad
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
3. Miami Marlins
New pick: Spencer Strider | Original pick: Max Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 126
4. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Masyn Winn | Original pick: Asa Lacy
Where new pick was originally drafted: 54
5. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Austin Wells | Original pick: Austin Martin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 28
6. Seattle Mariners
New pick: Jordan Westburg | Original pick: Emerson Hancock
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Evan Carter | Original pick: Nick Gonzales
Where new pick was originally drafted: 50
8. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jared Jones | Original pick: Robert Hassell III
Where new pick was originally drafted: 44
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kyle Harrison | Original pick: Zac Veen
Where new pick was originally drafted: 85
10. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Spencer Torkelson | Original pick: Reid Detmers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
Other notable players from 2020: Mick Abel, Patrick Bailey, Dillon Dingler, Bryce Elder, Colt Keith, Coby Mayo, Cade Smith, Tyler Soderstrom, Gavin Stone, Jordan Walker
Best draft: Atlanta Braves. In a draft shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Braves selected three major leaguers in their four picks, including Strider in the fourth round and 2023 All-Star Elder in the fourth. Strider had undergone Tommy John surgery at Clemson in 2019 and made just four appearances in 2020 before the pandemic, so scouts had a limited post-surgery look at him. The Orioles could also be here with Westburg, Kjerstad and Mayo, but the latter two have yet to do any damage in the majors despite their high prospect rankings.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Jordan Walker. The Cardinals took Walker with the 21st pick, and it soon looked like he might end up as the top player from this draft after he zoomed through the minors and reached the majors in 2023 at age 21, hitting a more-than-respectable .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs in 117 games. But he has been unable to come close to that production the past two seasons as he has struggled to make contact. The raw tools — bat speed and projectable power — are still there and he’s still just 23 years old, but it has been a frustrating two years.
Overview: The 2020 draft was always going to be unpredictable as college seasons shut down after a few weeks because of the pandemic and some high school seasons never even got going, so scouts had limited spring viewings of prospects. The draft was limited to five rounds, and teams focused on college players early, with eight of the first 10 picks from the collegiate ranks.
Still, even by these difficult measures, we haven’t seen great results from those first 10 picks, with only Torkelson making the redraft top 10 — and even then, you could argue for Tyler Soderstrom, defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey or Cade Smith, who has excelled as a reliever after Cleveland signed him as an undrafted free agent. There remains a lot of unknowns for some of the players in the redraft top 10: Jared Jones had Tommy John surgery this season, Evan Carter had a breakout postseason in helping the Rangers win the World Series in 2023 but had injury issues last season, and Harrison was just traded to the Red Sox.
There’s no doubt about the top guy at this particular moment, however, as Crow-Armstrong, on his way to a possible 40-40 season in his first full year in the majors, leaps over Crochet and Strider. Unfortunately for the Mets, who drafted him 19th overall out of famed Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, they traded him to the Cubs for Javier Baez in 2022.
2021
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: James Wood | Original pick: Henry Davis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 62
2. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Merrill | Original pick: Jack Leiter
Where new pick was originally drafted: 27
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Marcelo Mayer | Original pick: Jackson Jobe
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Boston Red Sox
New pick: Spencer Schwellenbach | Original pick: Marcelo Mayer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
5. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Bryan Woo | Original pick: Colton Cowser
Where new pick was originally drafted: 174
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Bryce Miller | Original pick: Jordan Lawlar
Where new pick was originally drafted: 113
7. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Tanner Bibee | Original pick: Frank Mozzicato
Where new pick was originally drafted: 156
8. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Andrew Abbott | Original pick: Benny Montgomery
Where new pick was originally drafted: 53
9. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bubba Chandler | Original pick: Sam Bachman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 72
10. New York Mets
New pick: Andrew Painter | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
Other notable players from 2021: Noah Cameron, Ben Casparius, Colton Cowser, Harry Ford, Sal Frelick, Brady House, Jackson Jobe, Kyle Manzardo, Matt McLain, Mason Miller, Max Muncy, Ben Rice, Carson Williams, Gavin Williams, Jacob Young
Best draft: San Diego Padres. The Padres are often unpredictable in the draft, but they love high-upside talent and might have gotten the two best players from this draft in Wood and Merrill. Merrill was the 27th overall pick, the highest-drafted Maryland high school player this century. He was a late riser whom many scouts hadn’t even seen until a couple weeks before the draft. Wood went with the 62nd pick out of IMG Academy in Florida, and scouts knew all about his power but had concerns about his hit tool. Well, he has figured out the hit thing and will be headed to the All-Star Game … as a member of the Nationals, after he was traded in the Juan Soto deal.
Honorable mention to the Mariners, who drafted collegiate pitchers Miller in the fourth round and Woo in the sixth, with both rising quickly to the majors and having immediate success in Seattle (although Miller is currently injured). Catcher Harry Ford was their first-round pick, and he’s a consensus top-50 prospect playing well in Triple-A, while second-round pick Edwin Arroyo was a key player dealt to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Henry Davis. There was no consensus best player in 2021, so the Pirates went with Louisville catcher Davis and signing him to a below-slot bonus to spread their pool money around (four of the next five picks each received a higher bonus). Davis was viewed as having the highest floor of the potential top choices, but he just hasn’t hit in the majors and is the backup catcher for the Pirates with a sub-.200 career average. With the savings on Davis, however, the Pirates did give third-round pick Bubba Chandler $2 million above slot to pull him away from a Clemson football scholarship, and he’s now the top pitching prospect in the minors.
Overview: This draft looks like it will be pretty deep in talent, especially on the pitching side — depending on long-term health. For now, I’ve slotted the pitchers who have proven themselves in the majors ahead of the ones who haven’t, but in a few years, it’s certainly possible that Chandler and Painter will be the top pitchers from this draft.
Wood or Merrill for the top player? There’s a case to be made for Merrill, because he plays center field while Wood is in left, but Wood’s bat is already special, with huge raw power and a good eye at the plate. He could be on his way to a 40-homer season in his age-22 season. Merrill is more aggressive, which might ultimately limit his OBP upside in comparison to Wood. If Wood was a bad corner outfielder, you might still go with Merrill, but at least for now Wood still runs well and plays an above-average left field.
Mayer slots in third. He was the top player on some draft boards and has played well in the minors with the range to play shortstop (although the Red Sox have used him at third base since his callup). Shortstop Carson Williams of the Rays, a late first-round pick, had helium entering 2025 but has struggled to make contact in Triple-A, he so falls out of the top 10 redraft — though, he has the talent to eventually climb back in. Lawlar ranked seventh on Kiley McDaniel’s recent top 50 prospects update, but he has had some injury issues in the minors and is 4-for-50 in a couple of major league trials. He merits consideration for the top 10, although he’s now blocked at shortstop in Arizona by Geraldo Perdomo.
2022
1. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Roman Anthony | Original pick: Jackson Holliday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 79
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Zach Neto | Original pick: Druw Jones
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
3. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Holliday | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Jacob Misiorowski | Original pick: Termarr Johnson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 63
New pick: Drake Baldwin | Original pick: Elijah Green
Where new pick was originally drafted: 96
6. Miami Marlins
New pick: Dalton Rushing | Original pick: Jacob Berry
Where new pick was originally drafted: 40
7. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cade Horton | Original pick: Cade Horton
8. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Jett Williams | Original pick: Brooks Lee
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
9. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Noah Schultz | Original pick: Gavin Cross
Where new pick was originally drafted: 26
10. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Victor Scott II | Original pick: Gabriel Hughes
Where new pick was originally drafted: 157
Other notable players from 2022: Hayden Birdsong, Justin Crawford, Chase Meidroth, Chandler Simpson, Drew Thorpe, Jonah Tong, Cole Young
Best draft: New York Mets. Williams, the 14th overall pick, is one of the top shortstop prospects in the minors while Tong, a seventh-round pick out of Canada, is having a monster season in Double-A averaging more than 14 K’s per nine. Third-rounder Blade Tidwell has also reached the majors. Kevin Parada, a catcher from Georgia Tech taken three spots ahead of Williams, has struggled to hit, however.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Elijah Green. The 2022 draft featured several talented high school position players, with Holliday, Jones, Johnson and Green all going in the top five picks. Holliday quickly became the top prospect in the minors and is playing well for the Orioles, but the other three have all struggled to live up to the hype so far. Green was always the riskiest of the group but had physical tools that drew comparisons to Ronald Acuna Jr. Concerns about his contact rate have proven true, however, and after whiffing 206 times in Single-A in 2024, he’s hitting under .200 in High-A this year.
Overview: While the top high school bats have yet to perform, the Red Sox got Anthony at the end of the second round with the 79th pick. His status as the top prospect in the minors before his recent call-up earns him the top slot in this redraft. Just to show how difficult drafting is, however: The Red Sox drafted two high school shortstops before they selected Anthony.
I have Neto ahead of Holliday for now, in part because Neto is a shortstop while Holliday has had to move to second base (and not just because of Gunnar Henderson — Holliday’s range and arm wouldn’t play at shortstop). Holliday is three years younger and just 21 years old, so there’s still plenty of time for his bat to improve. Neto was the 13th pick out of Campbell, in the Big South Conference — a late riser his draft year. He reached the majors with the Angels in 2023, and his power has been even better than projected, with 23 home runs in 2024 as part of an impressive 5.1-WAR season. You’d like to see him improve his strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he’s the best Angels draft pick since Mike Trout.
2023
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Paul Skenes | Original pick: Paul Skenes
2. Washington Nationals
New pick: Jacob Wilson | Original pick: Dylan Crews
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Wyatt Langford | Original pick: Max Clark
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Texas Rangers
New pick: Max Clark | Original pick: Wyatt Langford
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
5. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Walker Jenkins | Original pick: Walker Jenkins
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Kristian Campbell | Original pick: Jacob Wilson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 132
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Dylan Crews | Original pick: Rhett Lowder
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
8. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Colt Emerson | Original pick: Blake Mitchell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 22
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kevin McGonigle | Original pick: Chase Dollander
Where new pick was originally drafted: 37
10. Miami Marlins
New pick: Chase Dollander | Original pick: Noble Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
Other notable players from 2023: Bryce Eldridge, Zyhir Hope, Luke Keaschall, George Lombard Jr., Aidan Miller, Arjun Nimmala, Nolan Schanuel, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel
Best draft: Detroit Tigers. Certainly, it’s way too early to tell here. Maybe it’s just the Pirates with Skenes. The Red Sox got Campbell in the fourth round with first-rounder Teel going to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade. But let’s go with the Tigers as Clark and McGonigle, both high school selections, have hit well in the lower minors and could be excellent all-around players if their power develops. Second-rounder Max Anderson is having a big season in Double-A, and fifth-round pitcher Jaden Hamm, out of Middle Tennessee State, has also been in Double-A all season after having a strong year in 2024 in High-A.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Dylan Crews. By no means are we writing Crews off — we still have him going seventh in the redraft — but his early scuffles in the majors, including a .196 average in 2025, are surprising given the numbers he put up at LSU (.426/.567/.713 as a junior). The plate discipline he had in college hasn’t translated to the pros, and he didn’t tear up the minors in 2024. His MLB numbers also pale in comparison to Langford, who went two picks later. Still, we need more than 300 plate appearances before passing final judgment.
Overview: Remember, it wasn’t a slam dunk for the Pirates to take Skenes. Pitchers come with their obvious injury risks, while Crews and Langford were two of the more accomplished college hitters in recent years. But still, they clearly made the right choice.
Wilson was a bit of a surprise pick at sixth overall for the A’s. Scouts loved his elite contact ability coming out of Grand Canyon University, but you don’t project anyone to hit .350 in the majors and Wilson has a chance to do that. His power has been the biggest surprise, as he’s already exceeding the Nico Hoerner comparisons. He’s not going to be a Gold Glove shortstop, but he’s competent enough there to slot ahead of Langford in the redraft at No. 2. The ultimate strength of this draft will rely on the talented group of high school hitters — Clark, Jenkins, Emerson, McGonigle, Miller, Eldridge, Nimmala and others — who look good so far with some of them starting to get tested in the upper minors. Eldrige is super intriguing: The 6-foot-7 slugger is just 20 years old and already in Triple-A for the Giants.
2024
New pick: Jac Caglianone | Original pick: Travis Bazzana
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Chase Burns | Original pick: Chase Burns
3. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Konnor Griffin | Original pick: Charlie Condon
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
4. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Nick Kurtz | Original pick: Nick Kurtz
5. Chicago White Sox
New pick: JJ Wetherholt | Original pick: Hagen Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 7
6. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Travis Bazzana | Original pick: Jac Caglianone
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
7. St. Louis Cardinals
New pick: Cam Smith | Original pick: JJ Wetherholt
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
8. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bryce Rainer | Original pick: Christian Moore
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Hagen Smith | Original pick: Konnor Griffin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
10. Washington Nationals
New pick: Charlie Condon | Original pick: Seaver King
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
Other notable players from 2024: Slade Caldwell, Theo Gillen, Braden Montgomery
Best draft: Kansas City Royals. It’s way too early to do anything but guess here, but the Royals are obviously ecstatic getting Caglianone with the sixth overall selection. He has a chance to be the power hitter from this draft and a potential star to line up next to Bobby Witt Jr. Second-round high school lefty David Shields has impressed early in Single-A, while a couple of pitchers out of the University of Tennessee, Drew Bream and A.J. Causey, could advance quickly.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Charlie Condon. As with Crews, we need to give Condon a lot more time, but after one of the most dominant seasons in NCAA history at Georgia (.433, 37 HRs), Condon’s initial returns in pro ball have raised concerns — especially given what Caglianone and Kurtz have done to already reach the majors. In 25 games in High-A after getting drafted, Condon hit .180 with 34 strikeouts and four walks. He then fractured his wrist in spring training. He’s back at High-A Spokane and has hit better (.333/.457/.457) and at least improved his walk and strikeout rates (22 walks, 24 strikeouts). Still, High-A isn’t much of a challenge for an SEC performer like Condon, so the Rockies will need to get a read on him in Double-A.
Overview: We did a lot of moving around in the top 10 redraft, but this already looks like one of the most interesting drafts in a long time. Really, you could already make the case for five or six different players now going first, including Bazzana, the actual top overall pick.
Would Caglianone really go No. 1? Maybe not, given the bias against first basemen going first overall, but we’re at a moment when it appears Caglianone might have the highest ceiling of any player given his plus-plus-plus power potential. Kansas City is trying Caglianone in right field, and that is a work in progress, but it would be a huge boon to the Royals if it did work out, as they’re desperate for outfield power and Vinnie Pasquantino is locked in at first base. Caglianone’s high chase rate remains an issue, but he has already been improving from his college days and is striking out just 20% of the time in the majors (compared to 32% for Kurtz, who has tapped into more power so far than Caglianone).
Griffin is also an exciting player to watch. A two-way talent from a Mississippi high school where he was the national player of the year, Griffin had perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft and is showing that so far, hitting .344/.408/.552 in Single-A, already earning a promotion to High-A and looking good at shortstop so far.
As for Bazzana, he’s currently out because of an oblique strain, but his pro numbers have been underwhelming, hitting .238 last year in 27 games at High-A and .252 with 39 strikeouts in 33 games so far in Double-A this year. At the same level, Wetherholt has hit .322 with more walks than strikeouts and has the defensive chops to remain in the infield (most likely at second base, especially with Masyn Winn entrenched at shortstop in St. Louis) while Bazzana might end up moving from second base to left field.
Still, with Smith already performing for the Astros after the Cubs traded him in the Kyle Tucker deal and Kurtz producing for the A’s, plus Caglianone and Moore in the majors as well, the early returns from this draft look excellent. Besides Griffin, some of the other high school selections such as Rainer, Gillen and Caldwell look promising.
This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.
The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.
Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?
As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.
Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.
How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman
Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.
How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon
Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.
How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith
Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.
How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan
Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.
How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.
How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll
Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.
How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam
Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.
How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.
How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize
Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore
Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.
How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan
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Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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