Redrafting the top 10 picks in every MLB draft from 2015 to 2024
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David Schoenfield
The 2025 MLB draft is around the corner, with the first round beginning July 13.
There are a lot of challenges in baseball. Hitting sometimes seems impossible given the velocity and stuff from pitchers these days, and for those pitchers, throwing quality strikes is a test and staying healthy a huge challenge. But the most difficult thing in the sport might be drafting. It’s one thing to scout tools, it’s another to project an 18-year-old high school kid as a 25-year-old major leaguer. Finding the baseball players among the athletes or the velocity kings seems more difficult nowadays than ever.
How difficult is it? We went through the past 10 drafts, from 2015 through 2024, and redrafted the top 10 selections. Leaving aside the two most recent drafts, whose players are still very early in their evaluation, only 16 of 80 top-10 selections made the redrafted top 10. Two of the drafts are 0-for-10 in any of their top-10 selections ranking in the redrafted top 10. This helps explain why teams such as the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins remained mired in the muck of the standings: They haven’t drafted well. (Although the Pirates at least got the No. 1 pick in 2023 right and might have crushed last year’s top-10 pick as well.)
Let’s go back through the past 10 drafts to see what the redrafts look like right now. View this through the lens of a specific moment in the baseball timeline. If we redo this piece in a few years, it will look much different than it does now, especially for the more recent drafts.
Jump to a draft:
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024
2015
New pick: Alex Bregman | Original pick: Dansby Swanson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
New pick: Kyle Tucker | Original pick: Alex Bregman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
New pick: Austin Riley | Original pick: Brendan Rodgers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 41
New pick: Dansby Swanson | Original pick: Dillon Tate
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
5. Houston Astros
New pick: Ian Happ | Original pick: Kyle Tucker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
New pick: Walker Buehler | Original pick: Tyler Jay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
New pick: Andrew Benintendi | Original pick: Andrew Benintendi
New pick: Brandon Lowe | Original pick: Carson Fulmer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 87
9. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cedric Mullins | Original pick: Ian Happ
Where new pick was originally drafted: 403
New pick: Tyler Stephenson | Original pick: Cornelius Randolph
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
Other notable players from 2015: Harrison Bader, Jake Cronenworth, Paul DeJong, Trent Grisham, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ryan Helsley, Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Naylor
Best draft: Houston Astros. They crushed it by taking Bregman and Tucker with the second and fifth picks, plus eight others who made the majors, including Myles Straw and Patrick Sandoval. Indeed, while Bregman currently has about 17 more career WAR than Tucker, given that Tucker is three years younger, he might end up as the best player in this draft.
Honorable mention goes to the St. Louis Cardinals, who drafted Bader and Jordan Hicks in the third round and then DeJong and Helsley in Rounds 4 and 5.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Cornelius Randolph. Viewed as perhaps the top high school bat in the draft, Randolph ended up the second high school player selected after Tucker in a college-heavy first round. Randolph didn’t hit for average or much power and never made it past Double-A — although he’s still playing professionally in the Mexican League.
Overview: This wasn’t viewed as a strong draft at the time — Keith Law, then an ESPN analyst, had called it the weakest at the top since 2000 — and that has held true a decade later, with a dearth of stars and even some of the better players such as Swanson relying heavily on defense for their value.
The Astros had the second pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken the year before, and Bregman was in the big leagues for them a year later. Tucker was chosen with their regular selection at No. 5, and then they used another first-round pick to select Daz Cameron, who turned into one of the key players used to acquire Justin Verlander in 2017.
The oddest story out of this draft came courtesy of the short-lived Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart regime in Arizona. After selecting Swanson with the first pick, the Diamondbacks traded him and a good outfielder in Ender Inciarte (coming off a 5.0-WAR season) to Atlanta for Shelby Miller in December 2015.
“I think the Diamondbacks are nuts,” Law said at the time. “It’s one thing to win now. It’s another to just give away surplus value.”
The deal backfired for Arizona when Miller immediately got hurt to start the 2016 season and struggled thereafter, contributing to the team going 69-93, which cost La Russa and Stewart their jobs.
2016
1. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Will Smith | Original pick: Mickey Moniak
Where new pick was originally drafted: 32
New pick: Corbin Burnes | Original pick: Nick Senzel
Where new pick was originally drafted: 111
New pick: Pete Alonso | Original pick: Ian Anderson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 64
4. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Bo Bichette | Original pick: Riley Pint
Where new pick was originally drafted: 66
New pick: Zac Gallen | Original pick: Corey Ray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 106
New pick: Shane Bieber | Original pick: A.J. Puk
Where new pick was originally drafted: 122
7. Miami Marlins
New pick: Tommy Edman | Original pick: Braxton Garrett
Where new pick was originally drafted: 196
New pick: Bryan Reynolds | Original pick: Cal Quantrill
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
New pick: Sean Murphy | Original pick: Matt Manning
Where new pick was originally drafted: 83
10. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Michael King | Original pick: Zack Collins
Where new pick was originally drafted: 353
Other notable players from 2016: TJ Friedl, Tony Gonsolin, Austin Hays, Josh Lowe, Nathaniel Lowe, Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, Cole Ragans
Best draft: Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers snagged Lux with the No. 20 pick and then college catcher Smith with the 32nd selection — and 12 others who have reached the majors. Gonsolin and Dustin May are two of those players and have shown flashes of success interspersed with many injuries, but both remain on the Dodgers’ roster (Gonsolin is currently injured again). Another honorable mention to the Cardinals for their midround magic, taking Gallen in the third round and Edman in the sixth, although Gallen was traded alongside Sandy Alcantara to the Marlins as part of the Marcell Ozuna trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Riley Pint. A high school right-hander from Kansas, Pint routinely hit 100 mph — topping out at 102 — and was regarded as perhaps the hardest-throwing high school pitcher of all time. The Rockies took him with the fourth pick, with some viewing him as possessing the highest ceiling in the draft. Alas … that was not the case.
“Despite his clean arm action, he has a head-jerk at release that could make it hard for him to throw consistent strikes,” Law wrote on ESPN. Pint did have trouble throwing strikes, and while he retired temporarily in 2021, he at least managed to briefly reach the majors with the Rockies in 2023-24.
Overview: In a draft that lacked a clear-cut No. 1 selection, the Phillies went with California high school outfielder Moniak, regarded as the best pure hitter in the draft. He has made more than 1,000 plate appearances in the majors but has never mastered the strike zone and has a career on-base percentage under .300.
He’s not the only first-round pick who didn’t make it big, however. In fact, the top 30 picks have combined for just one All-Star appearance — Ragans, the 30th selection, made it last year with the Royals. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t talent available. The 10 players we redrafted above have combined for 18 All-Star appearances and two Cy Young Awards, from Burnes and Bieber. They were both fourth-round picks, Burnes out of Saint Mary’s College and Bieber out of UC Santa Barbara. Burnes just underwent Tommy John surgery, though, while Bieber is on the mend from his TJ surgery last year, so their career values might now be more limited.
2017
1. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Hunter Greene | Original pick: Royce Lewis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Daulton Varsho | Original pick: Hunter Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 68
3. San Diego Padres
New pick: MacKenzie Gore | Original pick: MacKenzie Gore
New pick: David Peterson | Original pick: Brendan McKay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
5. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Royce Lewis | Original pick: Kyle Wright
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Bailey Ober | Original pick: Austin Beck
Where new pick was originally drafted: 346
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Brent Rooker | Original pick: Pavin Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 35
8. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Mark Vientos | Original pick: Adam Haseley
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
9. Milwaukee Brewers
New pick: Heliot Ramos | Original pick: Keston Hiura
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
New pick: Jose Caballero | Original pick: Jo Adell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 202
Other notable players from 2017: Shane Baz, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Houck, Jake Meyers, Clarke Schmidt, JP Sears, Taylor Walls
Best draft: Minnesota Twins. The Twins drafted three players who made our top-10 redraft list in Lewis (whom they did choose with the first overall pick), Rooker (No. 35) and Ober (a 12th-round pick), although Lewis’ ranking remains more speculative in the hopes that he can figure out a way to remain healthy and produce some offense. He hasn’t done either so far in 2025.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Keston Hiura. While other picks — such as McKay and Wright — were sidetracked by injuries, Hiura quickly reached the majors in 2019 and looked like a future star after hitting .303/.368/.570 in 84 games. A lot of players had phony numbers that season, however, and his high strikeout rate caught up to him in 2020. He has spent most of the past three seasons in the minors.
Overview: In the 2015 overview, we pointed out that year’s draft class was viewed as the worst since 2000. Well, 2017 was viewed at the time as perhaps even weaker than 2015.
“You’ve probably heard by now, from me or from others who cover the draft, that this year’s class is weaker than normal,” Law wrote in his draft rankings. “I still believe this is true, perhaps even more today than I did a month ago.”
While there is still time for some players here to improve, they’re running out of time: The college players are now 29 or 30 years old, and the high school draftees are in their mid-20s. The only players with even 10 career WAR so far are Varsho and Greene, with Ober getting close. Heck, Taylor Walls, a player with a career average under .200, actually ranks fourth in career WAR thanks to his outstanding defense — but that merely confirms how weak this class has been.
In fact, at the time of his ranking, Law wrote that even the 2000 class had produced eight players with 30 WAR (it’s now nine). That class also has two potential Hall of Famers in Yadier Molina and Chase Utley, a 200-game winner in Adam Wainwright and Cy Young winners in Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb (plus some great hitters in Adrian Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista). While the first round in 2000 was weak, there was plenty of talent later in the draft. The 2017 draft was weak in both areas — and maybe will go down as the weakest draft of all time.
2018
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Tarik Skubal | Original pick: Casey Mize
Where new pick was originally drafted: 255
New pick: Cal Raleigh | Original pick: Joey Bart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 90
3. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Jeremy Pena | Original pick: Alec Bohm
Where new pick was originally drafted: 102
4. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Steven Kwan | Original pick: Nick Madrigal
Where new pick was originally drafted: 163
5. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Nico Hoerner | Original pick: Jonathan India
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
New pick: Logan Gilbert | Original pick: Jarred Kelenic
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
7. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jarren Duran | Original pick: Ryan Weathers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 220
8. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Joe Ryan | Original pick: Carter Stewart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 210
9. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Brice Turang | Original pick: Kyler Murray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 21
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Lawrence Butler | Original pick: Travis Swaggerty
Where new pick was originally drafted: 173
Other notable players from 2018: Kyle Bradish, Kris Bubic, Triston Casas, Brendan Donovan, Xavier Edwards, Ryan Jeffers, Shane McClanahan, Lars Nootbaar, Logan O’Hoppe, Drew Rasmussen, Grayson Rodriguez, Brady Singer
Best draft: Seattle Mariners. You could go with the Tampa Bay Rays, who showed their penchant for identifying pitchers with Matthew Liberatore (first round), McClanahan (first round), Taj Bradley (fifth round) and Ryan (seventh round). The Tigers also got Mize, Skubal and Parker Meadows. But we’ll go with Seattle’s draft, even though it’s just two players in Raleigh and Gilbert. Given the scarcity of good catchers, Raleigh has a case as the potential No. 1 pick in a redraft, especially with what he’s doing in 2025, but Skubal might be on his way to a second straight Cy Young Award, giving him that first selection in our redraft.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Kyler Murray/Carter Stewart. This draft had two of the more curious outcomes in recent draft history. Murray’s story is well known. The A’s pulled a mild surprise in taking him ninth overall even though he had played just one full season of baseball at Oklahoma. They gave him a $4.66 million signing bonus and agreed to let him play one more year of college football before beginning his baseball career. Murray won the Heisman Trophy that fall and ditched baseball for the NFL.
Stewart’s story is less known. A big high school right-hander from Florida, Stewart was up to 98 mph with a high-spin curveball. He was No. 2 on ESPN’s draft board and No. 5 on MLB.com’s, and he went eighth to the Braves. A wrist injury reportedly caused the Braves to lower their bonus offer, which Stewart declined to sign and he enrolled in junior college instead. Rather than waiting for the 2019 draft, however, he signed to play in Japan with the Fukuoaka Soft Bank Hawks on a six-year deal worth a reported $6 million — becoming the first U.S.-born first-round pick to sign his first professional contract with a Japanese team.
After some time in the Japanese minor leagues, Stewart had a breakout season in 2024, posting a 1.95 ERA in 120 innings. Along the way, he signed a two-year, $10 million extension. He has been injured so far in 2025 and hasn’t pitched, but he would still be just 27 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after 2026.
Overview: While this draft hasn’t necessarily produced a long list of big stars, the overall depth is impressive — even though the top 10 selections have been underwhelming, with India leading that group with less than 7 career WAR. Mize was the no-doubt top pick after a dominant junior season at Auburn and, after a slow start to his career and Tommy John surgery in 2022, is having his best season in 2025. The Giants would have been better off selecting a different ACC catcher than Bart (Georgia Tech) as the Mariners got Raleigh (Florida State) in the third round.
The steal of the draft, of course, has been Skubal, a ninth-round pick out of Seattle University. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missed the 2017 season, although he returned to throw some bullpens before the draft. The Diamondbacks took him in the 29th round, but he returned to school. Even though he was up to 95 mph, his wildness scared teams off.
A key to the long-term value of this draft will be the health of the pitchers. Mize, Rasmussen and Bubic have already returned from injuries (multiple Tommy John surgeries in Rasmussen’s case). Bradish, McClanahan and Rodriguez have yet to pitch in 2025, and Gilbert is currently on the injured list as well.
2019
New pick: Bobby Witt Jr. | Original pick: Adley Rutschman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
New pick: Gunnar Henderson | Original pick: Bobby Witt Jr.
Where new pick was originally drafted: 42
3. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Corbin Carroll | Original pick: Andrew Vaughn
Where new pick was originally drafted: 16
4. Miami Marlins
New pick: Riley Greene | Original pick: JJ Bleday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
5. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Adley Rutschman | Original pick: Riley Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. San Diego Padres
New pick: CJ Abrams | Original pick: CJ Abrams
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Hunter Brown | Original pick: Nick Lodolo
Where new pick was originally drafted: 166
8. Texas Rangers
New pick: Michael Harris II | Original pick: Josh Jung
Where new pick was originally drafted: 98
9. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Anthony Volpe | Original pick: Shea Langeliers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
10. San Francisco Giants
New pick: George Kirby | Original pick: Hunter Bishop
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
Other notable players from 2019: Michael Busch, Kerry Carpenter, Brenton Doyle, Tyler Fitzgerald, Hunter Gaddis, Nick Lodolo, Vinnie Pasquantino, Ryan Pepiot, Josh Smith, Spencer Steer, Bryson Stott, Matt Wallner
Best draft: Baltimore Orioles. Rutschman was the consensus top player after a stellar career at Oregon State that saw him hit .411/.575/.751 his draft year, and the Orioles ended up going chalk by taking him at No. 1 after some smoke they might go in a different direction. Henderson was the first pick of the second round out of an Alabama high school, with concerns about his ability to stay at shortstop and ultimate power upside, but he has proven skeptics wrong on both accounts. The Orioles also got Kyle Stowers later in Round 2 and Joey Ortiz in Round 4, both later traded for pitching help.
The Diamondbacks drafted eight players who have since made the majors, including Carroll out of a Seattle high school with the 16th pick. Another honorable mention to the Braves, who got Harris in the third round, Langeliers in the first round (part of the Matt Olson trade) and Vaughn Grissom in the 11th round (traded for Chris Sale).
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Andrew Vaughn. The third pick out of Cal, Vaughn was viewed as a sure thing, a polished college hitter on par with Rutschman. In college, he combined a high average with power and plate discipline (104 walks to 51 strikeouts his sophomore and junior seasons), but he has hit just .248/.303/.407 in the majors. The White Sox finally gave up and recently traded him to the Brewers, who sent him to the minors. His plate discipline didn’t translate to the pros and a slow bat has limited damage on contact.
Overview: Witt gets first slot in the redraft over Henderson. Witt was second or third on most predraft boards, although there was some concern that he was already 19 years old at draft time — a big red flag for teams who follow draft models that view older high schoolers as a negative. Obviously it wasn’t, and Witt is now one of the game’s biggest stars. I have Greene ahead of Rutschman in the redraft on account of age — he’s three years younger — and current level of production. You could make a similar argument for Abrams. Brown is climbing this list, while Harris burst on the scene with a Rookie of the Year season in 2022, but his offense has stagnated the past two seasons due to a hyper-aggressive approach that has him with one of the highest chase rates in the majors.
Still, after the mediocre returns from the 2015-17 drafts, this looks a little more like what you might think a top 10 should look like, with at least three major stars in Witt, Henderson and Carroll leading the way. It’s not a historic class, but it’s a reminder that most drafts aren’t loaded with future stars.
2020
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong | Original pick: Spencer Torkelson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
2. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Garrett Crochet | Original pick: Heston Kjerstad
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
3. Miami Marlins
New pick: Spencer Strider | Original pick: Max Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 126
4. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Masyn Winn | Original pick: Asa Lacy
Where new pick was originally drafted: 54
5. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Austin Wells | Original pick: Austin Martin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 28
6. Seattle Mariners
New pick: Jordan Westburg | Original pick: Emerson Hancock
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Evan Carter | Original pick: Nick Gonzales
Where new pick was originally drafted: 50
8. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jared Jones | Original pick: Robert Hassell III
Where new pick was originally drafted: 44
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kyle Harrison | Original pick: Zac Veen
Where new pick was originally drafted: 85
10. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Spencer Torkelson | Original pick: Reid Detmers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
Other notable players from 2020: Mick Abel, Patrick Bailey, Dillon Dingler, Bryce Elder, Colt Keith, Coby Mayo, Cade Smith, Tyler Soderstrom, Gavin Stone, Jordan Walker
Best draft: Atlanta Braves. In a draft shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Braves selected three major leaguers in their four picks, including Strider in the fourth round and 2023 All-Star Elder in the fourth. Strider had undergone Tommy John surgery at Clemson in 2019 and made just four appearances in 2020 before the pandemic, so scouts had a limited post-surgery look at him. The Orioles could also be here with Westburg, Kjerstad and Mayo, but the latter two have yet to do any damage in the majors despite their high prospect rankings.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Jordan Walker. The Cardinals took Walker with the 21st pick, and it soon looked like he might end up as the top player from this draft after he zoomed through the minors and reached the majors in 2023 at age 21, hitting a more-than-respectable .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs in 117 games. But he has been unable to come close to that production the past two seasons as he has struggled to make contact. The raw tools — bat speed and projectable power — are still there and he’s still just 23 years old, but it has been a frustrating two years.
Overview: The 2020 draft was always going to be unpredictable as college seasons shut down after a few weeks because of the pandemic and some high school seasons never even got going, so scouts had limited spring viewings of prospects. The draft was limited to five rounds, and teams focused on college players early, with eight of the first 10 picks from the collegiate ranks.
Still, even by these difficult measures, we haven’t seen great results from those first 10 picks, with only Torkelson making the redraft top 10 — and even then, you could argue for Tyler Soderstrom, defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey or Cade Smith, who has excelled as a reliever after Cleveland signed him as an undrafted free agent. There remains a lot of unknowns for some of the players in the redraft top 10: Jared Jones had Tommy John surgery this season, Evan Carter had a breakout postseason in helping the Rangers win the World Series in 2023 but had injury issues last season, and Harrison was just traded to the Red Sox.
There’s no doubt about the top guy at this particular moment, however, as Crow-Armstrong, on his way to a possible 40-40 season in his first full year in the majors, leaps over Crochet and Strider. Unfortunately for the Mets, who drafted him 19th overall out of famed Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, they traded him to the Cubs for Javier Baez in 2022.
2021
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: James Wood | Original pick: Henry Davis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 62
2. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Merrill | Original pick: Jack Leiter
Where new pick was originally drafted: 27
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Marcelo Mayer | Original pick: Jackson Jobe
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Boston Red Sox
New pick: Spencer Schwellenbach | Original pick: Marcelo Mayer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
5. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Bryan Woo | Original pick: Colton Cowser
Where new pick was originally drafted: 174
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Bryce Miller | Original pick: Jordan Lawlar
Where new pick was originally drafted: 113
7. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Tanner Bibee | Original pick: Frank Mozzicato
Where new pick was originally drafted: 156
8. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Andrew Abbott | Original pick: Benny Montgomery
Where new pick was originally drafted: 53
9. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bubba Chandler | Original pick: Sam Bachman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 72
10. New York Mets
New pick: Andrew Painter | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
Other notable players from 2021: Noah Cameron, Ben Casparius, Colton Cowser, Harry Ford, Sal Frelick, Brady House, Jackson Jobe, Kyle Manzardo, Matt McLain, Mason Miller, Max Muncy, Ben Rice, Carson Williams, Gavin Williams, Jacob Young
Best draft: San Diego Padres. The Padres are often unpredictable in the draft, but they love high-upside talent and might have gotten the two best players from this draft in Wood and Merrill. Merrill was the 27th overall pick, the highest-drafted Maryland high school player this century. He was a late riser whom many scouts hadn’t even seen until a couple weeks before the draft. Wood went with the 62nd pick out of IMG Academy in Florida, and scouts knew all about his power but had concerns about his hit tool. Well, he has figured out the hit thing and will be headed to the All-Star Game … as a member of the Nationals, after he was traded in the Juan Soto deal.
Honorable mention to the Mariners, who drafted collegiate pitchers Miller in the fourth round and Woo in the sixth, with both rising quickly to the majors and having immediate success in Seattle (although Miller is currently injured). Catcher Harry Ford was their first-round pick, and he’s a consensus top-50 prospect playing well in Triple-A, while second-round pick Edwin Arroyo was a key player dealt to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Henry Davis. There was no consensus best player in 2021, so the Pirates went with Louisville catcher Davis and signing him to a below-slot bonus to spread their pool money around (four of the next five picks each received a higher bonus). Davis was viewed as having the highest floor of the potential top choices, but he just hasn’t hit in the majors and is the backup catcher for the Pirates with a sub-.200 career average. With the savings on Davis, however, the Pirates did give third-round pick Bubba Chandler $2 million above slot to pull him away from a Clemson football scholarship, and he’s now the top pitching prospect in the minors.
Overview: This draft looks like it will be pretty deep in talent, especially on the pitching side — depending on long-term health. For now, I’ve slotted the pitchers who have proven themselves in the majors ahead of the ones who haven’t, but in a few years, it’s certainly possible that Chandler and Painter will be the top pitchers from this draft.
Wood or Merrill for the top player? There’s a case to be made for Merrill, because he plays center field while Wood is in left, but Wood’s bat is already special, with huge raw power and a good eye at the plate. He could be on his way to a 40-homer season in his age-22 season. Merrill is more aggressive, which might ultimately limit his OBP upside in comparison to Wood. If Wood was a bad corner outfielder, you might still go with Merrill, but at least for now Wood still runs well and plays an above-average left field.
Mayer slots in third. He was the top player on some draft boards and has played well in the minors with the range to play shortstop (although the Red Sox have used him at third base since his callup). Shortstop Carson Williams of the Rays, a late first-round pick, had helium entering 2025 but has struggled to make contact in Triple-A, he so falls out of the top 10 redraft — though, he has the talent to eventually climb back in. Lawlar ranked seventh on Kiley McDaniel’s recent top 50 prospects update, but he has had some injury issues in the minors and is 4-for-50 in a couple of major league trials. He merits consideration for the top 10, although he’s now blocked at shortstop in Arizona by Geraldo Perdomo.
2022
1. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Roman Anthony | Original pick: Jackson Holliday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 79
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Zach Neto | Original pick: Druw Jones
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
3. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Holliday | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Jacob Misiorowski | Original pick: Termarr Johnson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 63
New pick: Drake Baldwin | Original pick: Elijah Green
Where new pick was originally drafted: 96
6. Miami Marlins
New pick: Dalton Rushing | Original pick: Jacob Berry
Where new pick was originally drafted: 40
7. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cade Horton | Original pick: Cade Horton
8. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Jett Williams | Original pick: Brooks Lee
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
9. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Noah Schultz | Original pick: Gavin Cross
Where new pick was originally drafted: 26
10. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Victor Scott II | Original pick: Gabriel Hughes
Where new pick was originally drafted: 157
Other notable players from 2022: Hayden Birdsong, Justin Crawford, Chase Meidroth, Chandler Simpson, Drew Thorpe, Jonah Tong, Cole Young
Best draft: New York Mets. Williams, the 14th overall pick, is one of the top shortstop prospects in the minors while Tong, a seventh-round pick out of Canada, is having a monster season in Double-A averaging more than 14 K’s per nine. Third-rounder Blade Tidwell has also reached the majors. Kevin Parada, a catcher from Georgia Tech taken three spots ahead of Williams, has struggled to hit, however.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Elijah Green. The 2022 draft featured several talented high school position players, with Holliday, Jones, Johnson and Green all going in the top five picks. Holliday quickly became the top prospect in the minors and is playing well for the Orioles, but the other three have all struggled to live up to the hype so far. Green was always the riskiest of the group but had physical tools that drew comparisons to Ronald Acuna Jr. Concerns about his contact rate have proven true, however, and after whiffing 206 times in Single-A in 2024, he’s hitting under .200 in High-A this year.
Overview: While the top high school bats have yet to perform, the Red Sox got Anthony at the end of the second round with the 79th pick. His status as the top prospect in the minors before his recent call-up earns him the top slot in this redraft. Just to show how difficult drafting is, however: The Red Sox drafted two high school shortstops before they selected Anthony.
I have Neto ahead of Holliday for now, in part because Neto is a shortstop while Holliday has had to move to second base (and not just because of Gunnar Henderson — Holliday’s range and arm wouldn’t play at shortstop). Holliday is three years younger and just 21 years old, so there’s still plenty of time for his bat to improve. Neto was the 13th pick out of Campbell, in the Big South Conference — a late riser his draft year. He reached the majors with the Angels in 2023, and his power has been even better than projected, with 23 home runs in 2024 as part of an impressive 5.1-WAR season. You’d like to see him improve his strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he’s the best Angels draft pick since Mike Trout.
2023
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Paul Skenes | Original pick: Paul Skenes
2. Washington Nationals
New pick: Jacob Wilson | Original pick: Dylan Crews
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Wyatt Langford | Original pick: Max Clark
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Texas Rangers
New pick: Max Clark | Original pick: Wyatt Langford
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
5. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Walker Jenkins | Original pick: Walker Jenkins
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Kristian Campbell | Original pick: Jacob Wilson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 132
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Dylan Crews | Original pick: Rhett Lowder
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
8. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Colt Emerson | Original pick: Blake Mitchell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 22
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kevin McGonigle | Original pick: Chase Dollander
Where new pick was originally drafted: 37
10. Miami Marlins
New pick: Chase Dollander | Original pick: Noble Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
Other notable players from 2023: Bryce Eldridge, Zyhir Hope, Luke Keaschall, George Lombard Jr., Aidan Miller, Arjun Nimmala, Nolan Schanuel, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel
Best draft: Detroit Tigers. Certainly, it’s way too early to tell here. Maybe it’s just the Pirates with Skenes. The Red Sox got Campbell in the fourth round with first-rounder Teel going to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade. But let’s go with the Tigers as Clark and McGonigle, both high school selections, have hit well in the lower minors and could be excellent all-around players if their power develops. Second-rounder Max Anderson is having a big season in Double-A, and fifth-round pitcher Jaden Hamm, out of Middle Tennessee State, has also been in Double-A all season after having a strong year in 2024 in High-A.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Dylan Crews. By no means are we writing Crews off — we still have him going seventh in the redraft — but his early scuffles in the majors, including a .196 average in 2025, are surprising given the numbers he put up at LSU (.426/.567/.713 as a junior). The plate discipline he had in college hasn’t translated to the pros, and he didn’t tear up the minors in 2024. His MLB numbers also pale in comparison to Langford, who went two picks later. Still, we need more than 300 plate appearances before passing final judgment.
Overview: Remember, it wasn’t a slam dunk for the Pirates to take Skenes. Pitchers come with their obvious injury risks, while Crews and Langford were two of the more accomplished college hitters in recent years. But still, they clearly made the right choice.
Wilson was a bit of a surprise pick at sixth overall for the A’s. Scouts loved his elite contact ability coming out of Grand Canyon University, but you don’t project anyone to hit .350 in the majors and Wilson has a chance to do that. His power has been the biggest surprise, as he’s already exceeding the Nico Hoerner comparisons. He’s not going to be a Gold Glove shortstop, but he’s competent enough there to slot ahead of Langford in the redraft at No. 2. The ultimate strength of this draft will rely on the talented group of high school hitters — Clark, Jenkins, Emerson, McGonigle, Miller, Eldridge, Nimmala and others — who look good so far with some of them starting to get tested in the upper minors. Eldrige is super intriguing: The 6-foot-7 slugger is just 20 years old and already in Triple-A for the Giants.
2024
New pick: Jac Caglianone | Original pick: Travis Bazzana
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Chase Burns | Original pick: Chase Burns
3. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Konnor Griffin | Original pick: Charlie Condon
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
4. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Nick Kurtz | Original pick: Nick Kurtz
5. Chicago White Sox
New pick: JJ Wetherholt | Original pick: Hagen Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 7
6. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Travis Bazzana | Original pick: Jac Caglianone
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
7. St. Louis Cardinals
New pick: Cam Smith | Original pick: JJ Wetherholt
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
8. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bryce Rainer | Original pick: Christian Moore
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Hagen Smith | Original pick: Konnor Griffin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
10. Washington Nationals
New pick: Charlie Condon | Original pick: Seaver King
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
Other notable players from 2024: Slade Caldwell, Theo Gillen, Braden Montgomery
Best draft: Kansas City Royals. It’s way too early to do anything but guess here, but the Royals are obviously ecstatic getting Caglianone with the sixth overall selection. He has a chance to be the power hitter from this draft and a potential star to line up next to Bobby Witt Jr. Second-round high school lefty David Shields has impressed early in Single-A, while a couple of pitchers out of the University of Tennessee, Drew Bream and A.J. Causey, could advance quickly.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Charlie Condon. As with Crews, we need to give Condon a lot more time, but after one of the most dominant seasons in NCAA history at Georgia (.433, 37 HRs), Condon’s initial returns in pro ball have raised concerns — especially given what Caglianone and Kurtz have done to already reach the majors. In 25 games in High-A after getting drafted, Condon hit .180 with 34 strikeouts and four walks. He then fractured his wrist in spring training. He’s back at High-A Spokane and has hit better (.333/.457/.457) and at least improved his walk and strikeout rates (22 walks, 24 strikeouts). Still, High-A isn’t much of a challenge for an SEC performer like Condon, so the Rockies will need to get a read on him in Double-A.
Overview: We did a lot of moving around in the top 10 redraft, but this already looks like one of the most interesting drafts in a long time. Really, you could already make the case for five or six different players now going first, including Bazzana, the actual top overall pick.
Would Caglianone really go No. 1? Maybe not, given the bias against first basemen going first overall, but we’re at a moment when it appears Caglianone might have the highest ceiling of any player given his plus-plus-plus power potential. Kansas City is trying Caglianone in right field, and that is a work in progress, but it would be a huge boon to the Royals if it did work out, as they’re desperate for outfield power and Vinnie Pasquantino is locked in at first base. Caglianone’s high chase rate remains an issue, but he has already been improving from his college days and is striking out just 20% of the time in the majors (compared to 32% for Kurtz, who has tapped into more power so far than Caglianone).
Griffin is also an exciting player to watch. A two-way talent from a Mississippi high school where he was the national player of the year, Griffin had perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft and is showing that so far, hitting .344/.408/.552 in Single-A, already earning a promotion to High-A and looking good at shortstop so far.
As for Bazzana, he’s currently out because of an oblique strain, but his pro numbers have been underwhelming, hitting .238 last year in 27 games at High-A and .252 with 39 strikeouts in 33 games so far in Double-A this year. At the same level, Wetherholt has hit .322 with more walks than strikeouts and has the defensive chops to remain in the infield (most likely at second base, especially with Masyn Winn entrenched at shortstop in St. Louis) while Bazzana might end up moving from second base to left field.
Still, with Smith already performing for the Astros after the Cubs traded him in the Kyle Tucker deal and Kurtz producing for the A’s, plus Caglianone and Moore in the majors as well, the early returns from this draft look excellent. Besides Griffin, some of the other high school selections such as Rainer, Gillen and Caldwell look promising.
Sports
Biggest concern, what’s left to play for and more: Post-trade-deadline guide for all 30 MLB teams
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Bradford Doolittle
For all the work we do in setting up and covering the MLB trade deadline, the transaction-related activity in some years is a little underwhelming. That was not the case in 2025.
According to my tracking mechanisms, the wild 2025 deadline featured 92 veteran trade candidates on new teams and, likewise, 92 prospects headed to new organizations, seeking their big league opportunity. After all that, we turn our attention to reassessing the new baseball landscape.
This is what we do with every edition of Stock Watch, but there is never as much mystery in the outcomes as there is after a heavy period of roster movement, which yields my two favorite Stock Watch editions: after the in-season trade deadline (now) and during the hot stove season, after the offseason’s heaviest waves of transactions are completed.
As we did last year at this time, we will hone in on each team’s stretch run. This looks different for contenders than those looking to the future, but even for the noncontenders, it’s about what is left to accomplish on the field in 2025 — and how those aims might be achieved.
Jump to a tier:
Top-tier contenders | Second-tier contenders | Teams just hanging on
Teams looking ahead | The Colorado Rockies
Top-tier contenders
Teams with a 90% or better shot at the playoffs
Win average: 95.9 (Last month: 87.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 61.7%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 2.1%)
Lingering concern: Middle-of-the-order power
The Brewers have soared to the top spot of Stock Watch with startling velocity. You might view Milwaukee’s deadline approach as a bit passive, but when you’ve gotten so far by finding solutions within your organization, why change? The Brewers don’t have many obvious needs. Even the shortcoming noted above was listed only because no roster is perfect. But though Milwaukee ranks 15th in isolated power for the season, its offense has been baseball’s hottest, joining a run prevention crew that was already stellar.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 96.1, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 13.6% (Last: 12.6%)
Lingering concern: Frontline pitching
This seems like a big-ticket concern, and it is. Chicago’s rotation and bullpen have been more passable than good this season, at least when the offense has been rolling up big numbers. The club’s passive deadline approach didn’t upgrade that outlook. What the staff needed was some dynamism, whether one of the top closers who moved or a top-of-the-rotation starter. Given Kyle Tucker‘s walk-year contract status, a more all-in mindset was justified.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 101.4, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 99.7%)
Champions: 15.4% (Last: 24.0%)
Lingering concern: Pitching health
What else could it be? All those hurlers who seemed to comprise a super team type of depth chart in the offseason still exist. But the Dodgers’ dizzying turnstile of pitchers going on and off the injured list has never let up. Given what happens to pitchers once they join the Dodgers, maybe L.A. was doing the rest of the majors a small favor by mostly standing pat at the deadline. With the Padres positioned to push the Dodgers to the finish in the National League West, the stretch run can’t just be about rehabbing pitchers for October, either.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 97.9, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 99.8%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 14.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive consistency
When it comes to the overall pecking order, Detroit has come back to the pack. The Tigers focused their deadline work on the pitching staff, to mixed results. Yet, the Tigers’ offensive regression has been the primary culprit for their recent dip. Detroit is deep in prospects but has a right-now opportunity that doesn’t seem like it has been maximized. If Detroit returns to its early-season offensive exploits, though, it won’t matter.
Win average: 92.7 (Last: 93.5, 5th)
In the playoffs: 96.8% (Last: 93.8%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last: 7.6%)
Lingering concern: What about Andrew Painter?
After the Phillies’ deadline pickups of Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader, this is their first-world dilemma. They don’t need Painter, the talented righty who has been in the minors all season after returning from injury. His recent outings have been solid, but he’s still not putting up his pre-injury strikeout numbers. He’s a secret weapon at this point. Painter might not appear in the regular season but make the postseason roster anyway.
Win average: 90.7 (Last: 86.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 92.9% (Last: 72.7%)
Champions: 5.3% (Last: 1.8%)
Lingering concern: Anthony Santander
The Jays didn’t acquire Duran, but they made a couple of key bullpen pickups in Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland. We’ll see if that suffices. The other big need was a middle-of-the-order bat, a void Toronto thought it filled when it signed Santander. Santander has been out since the end of May and contributed little before that. The Blue Jays need Santander’s recovery to pick up and for him to be the thumper they signed.
Second-tier contenders
Teams with playoff odds between 40% and 89%
Win average: 90.2 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 89.0% (Last: 41.3%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 1.1%)
Lingering concern: History
Sure, a future All-Star Game might be half-populated with one-time San Diego prospects, but for now, A.J. Preller’s machinations have eliminated any glaring holes on his roster. The depth after the active-26 group isn’t great, so health is crucial. But as constructed, the Padres are as well-situated for the postseason as anyone. They, along with Seattle and Milwaukee, will try to snap a zero-for-eternity title drought. Any of the three could do it.
Win average: 90.1 (Last: 89.4, 7th)
In the playoffs: 89.4% (Last: 75.7%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 3.2%)
Lingering concern: Juan Soto
The Mets didn’t address their rotation at the deadline, but added enough to the relief staff that it’s not hard to lay out an October blueprint for a bullpen-heavy pitching staff. As for Soto, it’s perhaps not fair to call him a concern. This hasn’t been his best season, but it has been a good season, at least by the standards of most players. But Soto at his .300/.400/.600 best can carry a team, and as the Mets try to emerge from the crowded field of contenders, the time is coming for him to do it.
Win average: 89.5 (Last: 94.7, 4th)
In the playoffs: 88.0% (Last: 98.5%)
Champions: 6.1% (Last: 8.9%)
Lingering concern: How much Yordan Alvarez will the Astros get?
It has been a lost season for Alvarez, who has been out since early May because of a hand injury. Reportedly, Alvarez has been ramping up his activity and should return at some point. But can he be more than a marginal upgrade? Despite the Astros’ deadline pickups, their once-mighty offense won’t be an October threat — if Houston gets that far — unless Alvarez is ready to rake. As the Astros have come back to the pack in the American League West, their offense has been the coldest in baseball. Alvarez is their best hope of getting back to at least average.
Win average: 88.9 (Last: 79.8, 19th)
In the playoffs: 87.6% (Last: 17.8%)
Champions: 5.5% (Last: 0.3%)
Lingering concern: Starting rotation
This team makes a lot more sense if you plug a true No. 2 (or a co-No. 1) in the rotation next to Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox are playing so well it seems greedy to quibble, but what will this look like in the playoffs? Some teams tread water with the rotation and ride the bullpen in October. Boston’s bullpen has been solid, but it seems like the Red Sox will need more balance. Boston needs big finishes from every starter not named Crochet. And Crochet, too.
Win average: 88.8 (Last: 92.4, 6th)
In the playoffs: 87.2% (Last: 95.8%)
Champions: 8.0% (Last: 12.8%)
Lingering concern: Run prevention
With all of their bullpen pickups, the Yankees have set themselves up for the postseason, but they’ve got to get there first. New York still leads the AL in run prevention, but it has been two months since the Yankees have played like a playoff team. The rotation and bullpen have struggled, but so too has the mistake-prone defense. New York’s power-based offense is dangerous, especially when Aaron Judge is healthy, but the Yankees aren’t going to bludgeon their way back to the World Series.
Win average: 86.8 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 70.4% (Last: 66.5%)
Champions: 3.4% (Last: 2.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive regression
Getting Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez back in the same lineup is a coup, and there’s no doubt the Mariners’ offensive profile has improved. But it’s highly unlikely that what we’ll see from Raleigh and Suarez over the rest of the season will match what they’ve done to this point. It’s not saying they’ll collapse but to underscore how their output has been off the charts. Seattle will need plenty of production in addition to that duo, and the Mariners are well-positioned to get it.
Win average: 84.1 (Last: 81.1, 17th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 27.3%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.5%)
Lingering concern: Bullpen
The Rangers’ offense remains confounding, but lately it has been so consistently productive that it has fueled Texas’ resurgence in the AL West race. The rotation remains the standout unit, especially with the addition of Merrill Kelly. Still, though newcomers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton help, you can’t help but look at the prospects it took to acquire Kelly and wonder how much that offer could have been tweaked for Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran.
Teams just hanging on
Teams on the “miracles do happen” tier
Win average: 82.3 (Last: 82.5, 15th)
In the playoffs: 12.3% (Last: 19.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
Hope for a run: Powerhouse rotation
This was going to be the case even without the addition of Zack Littell during what was an odd deadline for the Reds, who reinforced areas of strength without addressing areas of greatest need. But with Hunter Greene nearing his return, if he, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo all finish strong, the Reds will be a force down the stretch.
Win average: 81.8 (Last: 84.4, 14th)
In the playoffs: 9.4% (Last: 35.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 1.2%)
Hope for a run: Exploding stars
The Giants’ subtraction at the deadline wasn’t quite a white flag, but it was a recognition that the once-promising season had petered out. Still, with the Giants off the radar, you can see that each unit features at least one All-Star-level player: Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and dynamic new closer Randy Rodriguez. The roster is thinner, but maybe the Giants have another run in them.
Win average: 80.9 (Last: 76.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 12.5% (Last: 5.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Belief
Some of the many teams in baseball’s wide midsection looked at their mediocrity as an excuse to punt. The Royals looked at it as an opportunity to have some fun. Kansas City was 39-46 at the end of June. Now, the Royals, in Boston facing one of the teams they are chasing in the wild-card race, are one of the AL’s hottest teams. Injuries and underperformance have hampered Kansas City for most of the season, but the front office believed in the group enough to address the holes in a meaningful way. It’s not fancy. It’s just trying.
Win average: 80.3 (Last: 88.2, 8th)
In the playoffs: 10.2% (Last: 82.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 4.5%)
Hope for a run: It can’t get worse?
The Rays are really hard to pin down. They exit the deadline as baseball’s coldest team. They aren’t out of the race in terms of record or games behind, but more because of trajectory. That downward trend was neither helped nor harmed by a deadline strategy that was an odd mix of adding and subtracting. Even the addition of the dynamic Jax is a mixed bag, given it took Taj Bradley to get him.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 85.5, 13th)
In the playoffs: 2.6% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 1.0%)
Hope for a run: There’s always another next year
The Cardinals’ slide, combined with their deadline-related offloading, has them on more of a path to challenge the Pirates for last than the Reds for third. And wasn’t that the design all along? It’s too bad St. Louis played well early this season, or it might have gone into full reset mode earlier, though all of those no-trade clauses would have made it difficult. This is a proud franchise, but this season has been a head-scratcher. If, from the end of last season, the aim of the organization was to maximize its chances of winning in 2025, the Cardinals could have mounted a sustained run. And it’s hard to see what would have been lost in the effort.
Win average: 79.3 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 6.5% (Last: 8.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Jose Ramirez
The Guardians underwent a soft unload at the deadline, trading franchise stalwart Shane Bieber to Toronto. Same old, same old for this franchise. The good part of that stick-to-the-plan organizational cornerstone is that it also encompasses keeping the great Ramirez, who shows zero signs of decline in his 13th season. He might be even better than ever, and if Ramirez were to finish on a massive heater and lead the Guardians into the playoffs on a miracle run, Aaron Judge’s injury problems and Cal Raleigh’s possible regression open the door for Ramirez to win his first MVP.
Teams looking ahead to 2026 and beyond
Playing out the string and hoping for better luck next time
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 69.7, 26th)
In the playoffs: 1.6% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Dig that pitching
The Marlins are really fun to watch, and have been for some time. After a weekend spent throttling the Yankees, it seems like others are taking notice. A true playoff push would involve a really unlikely acceleration of this surge, mostly because none of the current six playoff teams in the NL seems likely to collapse. That doesn’t mean the stifling Marlins rotation can’t hit the hot stove season with momentum, and focus the front office’s offseason plan on adding offense. Also note: The playoff-bound Tigers were in this tier in last season’s edition of this Stock Watch. You never know.
Win average: 77.3 (Last: 82.4, 16th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 20.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.5%)
Remaining objective: See what’s what with Jordan Lawlar
It has been a disappointing season for Arizona. After lofty preseason expectations, injuries poked a hole in the Diamondbacks’ contention bubble, and an aggressive offloading deadline sucked out the rest of the air. Not that GM Mike Hazen did the wrong thing; it’s just a very different place than we thought Arizona was headed. The departure of Suarez is tough, but at least Arizona can take an extended look at Lawlar at the hot corner — if he can get healthy, which isn’t a given. It has been that kind of season.
Win average: 76.1 (Last: 79.7, 20th)
In the playoffs: 1.3% (Last: 18.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Remaining objective: Learn everybody’s name
Some saw the Twins’ “everything must go” deadline approach as malpractice, probably more driven by money than winning. Others saw it as smart and a rapid accumulation of young prospect talent. The two conclusions aren’t mutually exclusive. It depends on how quickly the Twins can reconstruct their bullpen and how many of the newbies pan out.
Win average: 76.0 (Last: 76.3, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 1.1% (Last: 6.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: To keep trying
The Angels’ deadline behavior suggests they see themselves in the tier above this. The numbers don’t agree that that is likely, but, what is lost by the attempt? The Angels have exceeded tepid expectations for the most part. You wonder, given the need for an unusual leap from here, what sector of the Angels’ roster might be situated to fuel such a rise.
Win average: 72.4 (Last: 80.0, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 11.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.4%)
Remaining objective: Get to the offseason
Atlanta’s season has been an exercise in waiting for a Braves surge that never happened. Underperformance put Atlanta in a hole and a worsening injury picture sealed its fate. Some hard questions will need to be answered in the offseason. You can blame injuries, but this season, after last season, constitutes an ugly trend.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 71.1, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Play the kids
The names you want to see as much as possible from here: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Samuel Basallo … just turn them loose and see what it looks like. That’s what this deadline was all about, wasn’t it?
Win average: 69.9 (Last: 71.8, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Help Paul Skenes to a Cy Young
Give Pirates fans something to hang their horizontal-striped hats on. Give Skenes some support, allow him to finish strong and see if he can beat the NL’s other leading hopefuls despite a lack of high-stakes action. The Pirates haven’t had a Cy Young Award-winner since Doug Drabek … in 1990.
Win average: 69.5 (Last: 65.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Finish strong
Sure, this sounds like a generic, lame goal for the rest of the season. But the Athletics have been solid and fun to watch for long stretches of the season. A few weeks of historically awful pitching killed hopes of real competitiveness, but the A’s have responded nicely in the weeks since that slump. The deadline pickup of Leo De Vries only sharpens the anticipation of what’s to come. Keep the good tidings coming headed into the offseason.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 68.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Develop some kind of foothold
The Nationals have me confounded. They have some clear reasons to be excited, led by James Wood. But they’ve been trying to piece together a rebuild for a long time and show no signs of coming out of it. Rather than showing positive strides like the team after them in this Stock Watch, the Nationals have trended ice cold on both sides of the ball as we’ve gotten deeper into the season. They fired their brain trust, which might have been necessary, but it only intensified the problem of figuring out what this team is or where it’s headed.
Win average: 62.1 (Last: 56.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Keep it going
The White Sox might lose 100 games again, but they might not. Seems like damning with faint praise, but given where Chicago was earlier this season, much less a year ago, it seems like a minor miracle. The exciting part is that the younger the White Sox lineup has gotten, the better it has played. Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Chase Meidroth have played key roles, and the White Sox are getting good results from other teams’ castoffs. The newest project is deadline pickup Curtis Mead, who generated so much excitement for the Rays in spring training.
The Colorado Rockies
The horror!
Win average: 44.3 (Last: 41.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
When will it end? Could be sooner than you think
First, it’s not a given that a team gets its own class in this Stock Watch edition. You’ve really got to set yourself apart. The White Sox did it last season, and the Rockies are doing it now. Colorado has picked up the pace, especially on offense, so it is no longer a certainty that the Rockies will dip below Chicago’s record-setting 2024 thud. And the one-year vibe shift in Chicago would be a source of encouragement as well. At the same time … the White Sox had a plan.
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Bill Connelly
According to ESPN BET, there are currently 21 teams with at least +10,000 odds (equivalent to about a 1% chance) of winning the national title in 2025. Thirteen of them are starting new quarterbacks, and seven of those are extremely inexperienced. Three other contenders are starting sophomores who, while experienced compared to others, are still sophomores.
Translation: The quarterback position, already the most important in any team sport, is going to be more important than ever this fall. Whichever of the 21 contenders has a particularly good one will have a massive opportunity on their hands.
Some of these new starters will shine — three of the past seven Heisman winners have been first-year starters, after all. But some will inevitably fall flat or, at least, start slowly. Some have given us tantalizing tastes of potential in small samples. Others will be taking their first meaningful snaps since high school. Some inherit offenses with known stars. Others will be navigating through life with new lines in front of them or new skill corps around them (or, in the case of the No. 1 guy on the list below, both).
It’s time for my annual most important players list. Below are 40 players who could define the season with either moments or long spells of greatness. Some play for contenders, while others play for the teams that might prevent contenders from reaching their goals. All of them will have a chance to make their mark on 2025. As I write in this piece every year, there are birds in hand, and there are unfinished products. This list is typically about the latter. It’s always quarterback-heavy because, well, quarterbacks are always important. But this year, we’re on quarterback overload.
New starting quarterbacks for likely contenders
1. Arch Manning, Texas: I usually count down to No. 1 in this piece in an attempt to build some sort of suspense, but there’s no point in making you wade through 39 other names first when you know who’s going to be No. 1. The top quarterback prospect in the 2023 recruiting class, Manning attempted 108 dropbacks while backing up or filling in for Quinn Ewers the past two seasons. And now he enters 2025 as the Heisman betting favorite (+600), leading a team that is the national title co-favorite (+550) and the likely preseason No. 1 team.
For two years, we’ve looked at 2025 as The Year Of Arch, and now we get to find out if he’s up for the challenge. If he is, then Texas could remain atop the rankings all season and, after two straight College Football Playoff semifinal defeats, make it a couple of wins further. But if he’s merely very good, the Longhorns’ rebuilt offensive and defensive lines and unproven receiving corps could become major obstacles. No pressure, dude.
2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia: The small-town Georgia product and former blue-chipper found himself in an impossible situation, making his first career start in the 2024 CFP quarterfinals last season against Notre Dame. He made some fabulous throws, suffered a devastating sack-and-strip fumble and couldn’t quite get the job done. Now he has gotten an entire offseason to prepare for start No. 2 and beyond. Georgia has the highest floor in the sport, but the Dawgs’ ceiling will be defined by Stockton and a receiving corps that didn’t do nearly enough for its QBs last season.
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama: The Bama defense gave up only 14.4 points per game in its final seven contests, but the Tide went just 4-3 in that span because the offense disappeared, reappeared, then vanished for good. With Ryan Grubb rejoining Kalen DeBoer as offensive coordinator and receiver Ryan Williams returning, it seems this is a great situation for a new QB. Can Simpson, a longtime backup, seize his opportunity and lead Bama through tricky early road trips to Florida State and Georgia? Or will he be supplanted by a youngster by midseason?
4. CJ Carr, Notre Dame: Notre Dame made the national title game last season despite an offense focused mainly on short passes and lots of third-down QB keepers. Riley Leonard was really good at those things, but Carr, a top-40 prospect in 2024, brings quite the old-school, pro-style skill set to the table. Can he boost the Irish’s upside enough to maybe actually win the national title game (while providing enough of a floor to get them back there)?
5. Dante Moore, Oregon: Moore took on too much too soon as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, but after a year as Dillon Gabriel’s understudy, he’ll try to guide a massively overhauled Oregon offense well enough to keep the Ducks in the hunt for a second Big Ten title in two tries. I’m not sure about his upside, but a good run game and good decision-making from Moore will take Oregon a long way down the road.
6. Julian Sayin, Ohio State: He has completed five career passes, all in fourth-quarter garbage time, and now he likely takes the reins for the defending national champ and a team that has ranked worse than seventh in offensive SP+ just once in eight years. There’s massive pressure that comes with that, and at some point Sayin will have to make some big third-down passes. But he’ll be throwing to the best receiver duo in the sport (Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate). That will help.
Quarterbacks with a potential game-changing leap in them
7. Drew Allar, Penn State (No. 2 in 2023, No. 5 in 2024): Two years ago, this category featured the quarterbacks who would go on to win the national title (J.J. McCarthy), win the Heisman (Jayden Daniels) and lead a team to an unbeaten start before a devastating late-season injury (Jordan Travis). Last year it featured the guy who would make a game-changing leap all the way to the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft (Cam Ward). This category is a good place to find guys who will define the season.
It’s also a good place to find Drew Allar. He’s in here for the second straight season. In his first season with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, he took a clear step forward, from 2,631 passing yards to 3,327 and, more importantly, from 27th to 10th in Total QBR. His devastating pick late in PSU’s semifinal loss to Notre Dame has festered all offseason, but he’s clearly very good, and if he improves just a little bit more, his Nittany Lions might be just about bulletproof.
8. Cade Klubnik, Clemson: In six career games against top-10 opponents, Allar has completed 49% of his passes, averaged just 4.9 yards per dropback and 156.5 yards per game, produced a horribly mediocre 54.9 Total QBR and gone just 1-5. Klubnik hasn’t exactly thrived against that level of competition, but following his performance against Texas in last season’s CFP first round — 336 yards, 3 touchdowns and an 81.5 Total QBR — his hype has increased. He’s the No. 2 Heisman betting favorite (+800), and Clemson should start the season with its highest preseason poll ranking in at least three years. I’ve spent much of the offseason as a Clemson-as-contender skeptic, but if Klubnik torches LSU in Week 1, the table is set for a huge run.
9. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (No. 7 in 2024): Klubnik vs. Nussmeier in Week 1 will be quite the market shifter when it comes to Heisman odds, and this game will give two teams with loads of upside and lots of question marks a chance to make a huge statement. LSU’s defense will probably determine its contention fate, but if Nussmeier, the No. 3 Heisman betting favorite (+900), takes a Jayden Daniels- or Joe Burrow-esque leap in his second year as a starter, the defense won’t have to make all that many stops.
10. Carson Beck, Miami: In two years as Georgia’s starter, Beck went 5-2 against top-10 opponents and produced a Total QBR over 92 on three occasions. Granted, he threw three picks twice as well (both times in 2024), but Georgia averaged a mammoth 36.6 points per game in those seven contests. He’s the most proven big-game player in the sport this season. But he also had a confusing run of poor play last season — 12 interceptions and 13 sacks in a six-game span — that damaged (or at least confused) perceptions. His final act will determine his legacy to a degree. Can he, with help from a theoretically improved defense, take Miami to its first CFP?
Young/inexperienced/new QBs with both spoiler and contender potential
11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
12. DJ Lagway, Florida
13. John Mateer, Oklahoma
14. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
15. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss
It was a jarring and repetitive theme in my SEC preview: “If [insert quarterback here] is awesome, [insert mid-level contender here] becomes a serious contender for a CFP bid.”
Granted, the paths for Florida and (especially) Oklahoma are trickier, and Lagway needs to be healthy before he can really threaten to upend this season. But any of these five QBs could lead playoff runs. Meanwhile, these five teams will play a combined 15 games against projected top-10 teams, per SP+, and 35 games against top-25 teams. If they don’t end up in the CFP hunt, they’ll have huge roles in determining who does.
These aren’t just five interesting quarterbacks — all five aspire to make plays, and that comes with risk.
• The national average for yards per completion last season was 12.1. All five of these QBs averaged at least 12.7, and Mateer (14.0 at Washington State), Simmons (14.8 in the smallest sample of the bunch) and Lagway (16.7) averaged far more.
• The national average for scramble rate (scrambles per dropback) was 6.6%. Lagway was at 7.2%, with Mateer at 11.1%, Sellers at 12.4% and Reed at 16.7%.
• The national average for air yards per pass was 8.6 yards downfield. Reed was at 9.3, Mateer 9.7, Lagway 10.6 and Simmons 11.3.
• Seeking out big plays comes with a sack risk. The national average for sacks per pressure was 17.8%. (Higher is worse in this case.) Simmons was at 25%, Sellers 25.6%, Mateer 28.4%.
• The national average for designed run rate (designed runs per snap) was 10.6%. Sellers was at 18.5%, Mateer 18.9%.
For that matter, Arch Manning had higher-than-normal numbers in terms of yards per completion, air yards, sacks per pressure and designed runs. These guys make huge plays and take hits. That will work out great for some and, perhaps, poorly for others. I can’t wait to see how this plays out.
Others: Joey Aguilar or Jake Merklinger, Tennessee; Beau Pribula or Sam Horn, Missouri; Bryce Underwood, Michigan
Potential stars in need of a breakthrough
16. Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. or T.J. Moore, Clemson: Wesco had three 100-yard games and averaged 17.3 yards per catch as a freshman. Moore ended his freshman season by torching Texas for 116 yards in the CFP. Williams has almost 2,000 career receiving yards. They comprise the most impressive receiving corps Clemson has had in quite some time, but even with them, Cade Klubnik averaged only 11.8 yards per completion last season. The last eight national title quarterbacks averaged at least 13.6. (The last one who didn’t? Clemson’s Deshaun Watson at 11.8.) It’s really hard to nibble your way to the national championship, and Klubnik’s receivers need to come up big if the Tigers are going to deliver on what probably will be a very lofty preseason ranking.
17. Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State: OK, by most definitions, Dennis-Sutton is already a star. He made 15 tackles for loss with 8.5 sacks and 13 run stops last season. Few did better, but former teammate Abdul Carter was one of them. The new New York Giant was otherworldly last season, and his departure means 23.5 TFLs and 12 sacks need replacing. Can Dennis-Sutton raise his game just a bit more and make sure new coordinator Jim Knowles has elite disruption up front?
18. Harold Perkins Jr., LSU: Over the last seven games of his freshman season, Perkins hit a level we almost never see, recording 50 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 8 run stops, 2 forced fumbles and 2 pass breakups. In basically half a season. Just think of what he might be capable of when he knows what he’s doing. We’re still waiting to see what he’s capable of. He was good as a sophomore, then tore his ACL four games into the 2024 season. Now comes a golden opportunity. Perkins and Whit Weeks are both full strength, and Brian Kelly basically went out and grabbed every defensive end in the portal. It sure feels as if coordinator Blake Baker has the disruptors he needs. Can Perkins break through and lead the first genuinely awesome LSU defense since 2019?
Others: Dillon Bell (No. 12 in 2024) or Colbie Young, Georgia
Most important (non-QB) transfers
19. Makhi Hughes, Oregon: Hughes was just about the most proven and known quantity in the transfer portal. Over 28 games at Tulane, he touched the ball 553 times (523 rushes, 30 catches) and gained 3,022 yards with 24 touchdowns. He’s a fantastic yards-after-contact guy and has shown he can both grind out yards between the tackles and hit the afterburners when he finds space. If he can become the same type of go-to guy in the Big Ten, it will take immense pressure off Dante Moore and the rest of a completely revamped Oregon offense.
20. Zachariah Branch, Georgia: When Gunner Stockton was desperately trying to make plays against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, his supporting cast just didn’t support him enough. All season, in fact, it was clear offensive coordinator Mike Bobo couldn’t figure out around whom to build the offense. The returning receiving corps has decent experience, but Branch was a tantalizing but frustrating figure at USC. A former top-10 prospect, he’s a dynamic return man, but he managed only 823 total receiving yards at 10.6 per catch in two seasons. Can he give Stockton both a reliable set of hands and the occasional chunk play?
21. Dillon Thieneman, Oregon: The Oregon offense basically returns 1.5 starters. The defense is in slightly better shape — it returns three. But they’re all linebackers. The secondary lost all eight players who topped 80 snaps last season and will lean heavily on Thieneman and a pair of cornerback transfers to hold up. The good news? Thieneman is awesome. He was a third-team All-American as a freshman in 2023 and a steady playmaker (and play-preventer) for a dreadful Purdue defense in 2024. If he can lead a reliable secondary in the back, Oregon should have enough proven entities and former star recruits to survive up front.
Others: Nic Anderson, LSU; Malachi Fields and/or Will Pauling, Notre Dame; Will Heldt, Clemson; Elo Modozie, Georgia; Isaiah World and/or Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon
Grizzled old spoiler quarterbacks
22. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: As far as final acts go, beating Alabama and leading Vandy to its first bowl win in 11 years would have been pretty spectacular. But Pavia sued to return for one final year of eligibility and won, and with a lot of the same players around him, he’ll try to make a few more memories. The Commodores get shots at Alabama, Texas, LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina, and though only one of those games is at home, Pavia & Co. probably will scare the hell out of someone in that group.
23. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (No. 21 in 2024): King’s Tech began 2024 by sending Florida State down its nightmare path, then finished it by KO’ing unbeaten Miami and nearly beating Georgia. King and running back Jamal Haynes can play the ball-control game as well as just about anyone, and they get home games against both Clemson and Georgia in 2025. OK, fine, the Georgia game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and that only sort of counts. Still, that sounds semi-ominous.
Pure transcendence potential
24. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (No. 11 in 2024)
25. Caleb Downs, Ohio State
It was going to be almost impossible for Smith, a Hollywood, Florida, product, to live up to his recruiting hype. He did so almost immediately. He topped 80 receiving yards in 10 games and hit triple digits in five, including an all-time, 187-yard, two-touchdown performance against Oregon in the CFP quarterfinal (and his first Rose Bowl trip). Smith and Carnell Tate will give Julian Sayin the ultimate security blanket.
Meanwhile, though it was hard to be inspired by Ryan Day’s decision to replace outgoing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles with former Bill Belichick protege Matt Patricia — last truly strong performance as a coach: 2016; last year coaching in college: 2003 — Downs will give the Buckeyes basically a second coordinator on the field. He’s an almost perfect safety. He made 12 tackles at or near the line of scrimmage last season, delivered pressure on 31% of his pass rushes and gave up a 29% completion rate and 0.7 QBR when paired up in coverage. Ohio State faces a huge challenge, attempting to repeat as champ with a new starting QB and two new coordinators. But the Buckeyes could have the two best players in the sport. And that could be enough.
26. Peter Woods and/or T.J. Parker, Clemson: Nearly the perfect defensive line duo. Despite Woods sitting out three games, they combined for 24 tackles for loss, 23 run stops and 14 sacks last season, and they also welcome dynamic Purdue transfer Will Heldt to the party. But even with these two, the Tigers ranked just 29th in defensive SP+ last season. Most of the two-deep returns, and new defensive coordinator Tom Allen should provide a jolt of energy, but it might take a transcendent step from Parker or Woods for Clemson to make a title run.
27. Ryan Williams, Alabama: Jeremiah Smith had one of the best freshman seasons we’ve ever seen, but a different freshman might have made the best play of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
Williams’ production trailed off after a torrid first five games, but it’s clear what he is capable of. If he channels Georgia energy for a larger portion of 2025, he’ll make the Tide awfully terrifying.
28. Leonard Moore and/or Christian Gray, Notre Dame: It was honestly incredible. Notre Dame lost all-world cornerback Benjamin Morrison to injury six games into 2024 and didn’t miss a single beat because Gray and Moore — then just a sophomore and freshman, respectively — were so damn good. They finished the season having combined for 5 interceptions, 19 pass breakups and 3 forced fumbles, and Gray’s spectacular interception of Drew Allar set up Notre Dame’s CFP semifinal win. Just imagine if even just one of these two hasn’t actually reached his ceiling.
Others: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas; Deontae Lawson, Alabama; Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame; Colin Simmons, Texas; Nicholas Singleton and/or Kaytron Allen, Penn State; Dylan Stewart, South Carolina
Most important players in the ACC race
Though the list to this point has focused mostly on teams with the best national title odds, a 12-team playoff with five conference champion automatic bids assures that tons of teams actually have playoff shots. So let’s focus on the bids that won’t go to the SEC and Big Ten champs.
29. Kevin Jennings, SMU: Last season was supposed to be Preston Stone‘s moment, but Jennings won the quarterback job early in 2024, then proceeded to win nine straight starts and lead SMU to both the ACC championship game and the CFP. But mistakes — two early turnovers against Clemson, three picks (including two pick-sixes) against Penn State — ended the season in ignominious fashion. If Jennings rebounds and improves, SMU will again contend for a CFP spot. But wow, was that a crushing way to end 2024.
30. Rueben Bain Jr., Miami: After an incredible freshman debut in 2023, Bain was hurt just three snaps into 2024, sat out more than a month and flashed a true fifth gear only a few times while the Miami defense crumbled down the stretch. But as with Harold Perkins Jr., the potential here is obvious, and if he is all the way back up to speed and Miami’s transfer-heavy secondary holds up, the Canes could leave most league contenders in the dust.
31. Miller Moss, Louisville (No. 20 in 2024): Moss was on this list last year as he prepared to succeed Caleb Williams at USC. He started the season brilliantly in a win over LSU but finished it on the bench as the Trojans wound up 7-6. He wasn’t bad — he finished 26th in Total QBR — but a fresh start sure seemed like a decent idea. Jeff Brohm has a pretty good history with quarterbacks, and Moss will have one of the nation’s best RB duos (plus explosive receiver Chris Bell) in support. A big Moss season makes the Cardinals contenders.
32. Darian Mensah, Duke: Duke was a mini-Michigan last season, playing good enough defense to win nine games despite no run game and a passing game Manny Diaz disliked so much that he immediately went out and grabbed Mensah with what was believed to be a big-money deal. At Tulane in 2024, Mensah was excellent for a redshirt freshman; if he becomes simply excellent, period, why shouldn’t the Blue Devils be considered contenders? (Especially with a light conference schedule featuring only one projected top-40 ACC team?)
Others: Isaac Brown and/or Duke Watson, Louisville; Kyle Louis, Pittsburgh; Francis Mauigoa, Miami; Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh; Chandler Rivers, Duke
Most important players in the Big 12 race
33. Avery Johnson, Kansas State: The Wildcats don’t need a big-time, blue-chip quarterback to win a lot of games. Kansas State’s three straight nine- or 10-win seasons (and 2022 Big 12 title) are a testament to that. But it sure would feel like a waste if the Wildcats didn’t do something particularly impressive when they had a blue-chipper from their own backyard. Johnson, a top-100 prospect and product of Maize, Kansas, was fun if predictably mistake-prone in 2024, but if he phases out some of the errors and maximizes the big plays, K-State’s ceiling is higher than 10 wins.
34. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State: It was almost lost in the Cam Skattebo hysteria, but Leavitt was absolutely dynamite during ASU’s late-2024 hot streak. From November onward, he ranked second among all FBS starters in Total QBR, averaging 7.9 yards per dropback with a 16-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio (and scrambling beautifully) despite losing his go-to receiver, Jordyn Tyson, to injury. Having Skattebo next to him helped in obvious ways, but with a deeper receiving corps and a still-decent set of RBs, Leavitt could pilot an exciting Sun Devils offense and lead a second straight conference title charge.
35. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor: We’re going particularly quarterback-heavy in this section, but, well, this is a quarterback-heavy conference. And over the course of 2024, Robertson might have been the conference’s best. (He had the best Total QBR, at least.) He threw for 3,071 yards at an explosive 13.4 yards per completion, and he returns last season’s top two receivers, Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins. Baylor could have its best offense in a decade, which would give a work-in-progress defense quite a bit of margin for error.
36. Josh Hoover, TCU: Like TCU as a whole, Hoover spent much of 2024 looking great while under the radar. The Frogs won six of their last seven — they were probably the second-best team in the Big 12 after mid-October — and the quick-passing Hoover finished second in the conference in passing yards (3,949) and completion rate (66.5%), and first in yards per dropback (7.8). He’ll be working with a new receiving corps, but if he and TCU pick up where they left off, a conference title is within reach.
Others: David Bailey, Texas Tech; Rocco Becht, Iowa State; Devon Dampier, Utah; Spencer Fano, Utah; Behren Morton, Texas Tech; Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
Most important Group of 5 players
37. Maddux Madsen, Boise State: Like Sam Leavitt, Madsen is going without training wheels this season. He no longer has the amazing Ashton Jeanty next to him, but he was still awfully good for a first-year starter in 2024. Madsen was fourth in Total QBR among Group of 5 QBs — second among those who threw more than 150 passes — and the Broncos were excellent on third downs, even when they had fallen off schedule. He’ll have experience all around him, and if he makes typical second-year-starter improvements, Boise State will be a runaway favorite to reach a second straight CFP.
38. Jake Retzlaff, Tulane: With both defending American Athletic champion Army and annual contender Memphis losing loads of production, Tulane has a massive opportunity to make a run in 2025, but it will require a quarterback. Jon Sumrall clearly knows this, as he brought in four QB transfers, and the latest might be the most vital.
1:13
How Jake Retzlaff ended up at Tulane
Pete Thamel gives the sequence of events that ended with former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff ending up at Tulane.
Retzlaff threw for 2,947 yards and 20 TDs as BYU surged up the Big 12 standings, and he’s now the biggest name in the Green Wave’s QB room. If he can get up to speed quickly, he’ll raise an already high ceiling in New Orleans.
39. Jayden Virgin-Morgan, Boise State: BSU must account for the loss of star pass rusher Ahmed Hassanein, but in Virgin-Morgan the Broncos might still have the best G5 defender in the country. He wasn’t quite as good as Hassanein against the run, but he has good size, and his 10 sacks as a sophomore (including 2.5 in two key wins over UNLV) were proof of massive potential. As with Madsen, a bit more development could make Boise nearly bullet-proof.
40. Alex Orji (No. 2 in 2024) or Anthony Colandrea, UNLV: The Rebels might be the single most fascinating team in the Group of 5. After winning 20 games in 2023 and ’24 (the same number they had won in the six years prior), they lost head coach Barry Odom and most of last season’s starters. That typically spells doom, but new head coach Dan Mullen has a fantastic résumé, and his transfer haul includes more blue-chippers than a lot of power-conference rosters can boast.
If either Orji or Colandrea thrive at quarterback, the Rebels could threaten Boise State. But Orji proved terribly one-dimensional in a failed audition at Michigan, and Colandrea was more confident than effective at Virginia. UNLV’s season could go in a lot of directions, but the ceiling is still high.
Others: Alonza Barnett III, James Madison; Walker Eget, San Jose State; Blake Horvath, Navy; Brendon Lewis, Memphis; Owen McCown, UTSA
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