2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
Sports
Who are MLB’s teams to beat this October — and who could take them down? Execs, insiders weigh in
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Jesse Rogers
The MLB playoffs are just around the corner and shaping up to be a wide-open affair. For the second consecutive season, there is not a single team on pace to win 100 or more games. That means there is plenty of parity across the majors, which is bound to carry over to October.
With that in mind, we asked 19 baseball players, executives and scouts: Who is the team to beat in the National League? And who is the team to beat in the American League?
There was little uniformity to their answers, though most agreed on one thing: a sleeper team that people in both leagues agreed could make a run in October. Here’s how those in the game view the upcoming postseason.
The NL’s team to beat is …
(Phillies, 5; Dodgers, 4; Padres, 2; Mets, 1)
Voting was as tight as you might imagine, considering the Brewers are mixed in with the defending champion Dodgers and high-priced Phillies. Those teams dominated our poll, leaving few votes for anyone else.
All three teams can slug their way to the World Series, but the Dodgers have a distinct advantage in the power game, outhomering both Philadelphia and Milwaukee by a wide margin this regular season. However, Philly employs easily the best closer of the three — a crucial element that could help finish off those tight October games.
Still, it was the Brewers who won our poll because they’ve played at such a high level in all areas while also possessing a deep and healthy starting staff.
Why the Brewers
NL player: “They seem like a team that has a really solid plan and cohesive approach. And they seem like they’re on the same page. I just like how they play. And they’ve done it all year; why can’t they keep it going?”
NL scout: “They still have to figure out the back end of their pen, but in a short series, they have the luxury of sending one of their good starters to the bullpen. And they might just run into enough home runs to keep pace in October.”
NL exec: “Getting the bye will be huge for them. They’ve been knocked out in those short series several times; this will let them breathe a bit. Plus, their starting staff is so good. If I’m Milwaukee, I want the longer series.”
Biggest threats to Brewers
NL player: “It’s simple for me. They still have good pitching, and they’ve been there before. Playoffs are about home runs, and they can hit them.”
NL player: “Their lineup is a little top-heavy, but they have enough at the bottom that can do the job. If those guys show up, then that lineup is really good. Their pen is incredible with [Jhoan] Duran.”
NL exec: “It’s their last hurrah, right? They have older players, some of whom will be free agents at the end of the season. I just can’t see [Bryce] Harper going his career without a ring, and this is their best chance, even without [Zack] Wheeler.”
NL player: “When we played them, they didn’t have a good series, but they seem to turn it on when they need to. That’s the sign of a champion. I think their offense will have a big October and lead them like it did last year.”
NL exec: “Talent will win out, and they have the potential for healthiest pitching staff all year in October.”
If not Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Los Angeles, then who?
Truth be told, these insiders responded before the latest Mets free fall became so dramatic — New York was on an eight-game losing streak that ended with an extra-innings win over Texas on Sunday. But, hey, anyone can get hot at the right time, right? The Mets proved that last year. But they have to prove they can even get into the October party before they can think about making a deep run.
The Padres are hard to figure out, but that doesn’t make them less dangerous than any other contender. Some days, their offense goes into hibernation, but they can shut anyone down in the late innings. Their bullpen is that good and could take them far despite the loss of Jason Adam.
NL player: “I like San Diego. They’re hungry. They made all the right deadline moves. And they have the experience of getting close but not going all the way.”
NL exec: “There’s a lot to like about San Diego, but they can still be pitched to even with their deadline additions. It’s like they disappear sometimes. If they survive a wild-card round and get some home games, Petco [Park]’s energy could wake them up. Still a great bullpen.”
NL player: “The Mets are really good. I know they’ve struggled, but I’m banking on them getting hot like they did last postseason. Sometimes you get your worst baseball behind you, then find your groove. I like the Mets to do that.”
NL scout: “Their lineup 1-9 has to carry them. I’m not sure how they’ll piece it together on the mound, but sometimes you find rookie magic in an arm or two. If two of [Nolan] McLean, [Jonah] Tong and [Brandon] Sproat can come through, why not the Mets?
The AL’s team to beat is …
(Tigers, 5; Yankees, 3; Red Sox, 3; Astros, 2)
The voting was even tighter in the AL than in the NL — four teams received three or more votes — but it was the Blue Jays who edged out the competition with just one more vote than Detroit.
Home-field advantage could make the difference for the AL’s top two teams, both of whom dominate at home but hover around .500 on the road. The Tigers play so well at Comerica Park, where they are able to run rampant on the bases and go first to third on teams. And, of course, they feature Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays can get the newly renovated Rogers Centre rocking as hard as any stadium in the majors. That top seed in the AL is up for grabs down the stretch — and one of these two teams is highly likely to get it.
Why the Blue Jays
AL player: “They’re one of the most rounded teams in the AL. They have some experience, especially in the rotation, and have a little bit of everything in the lineup. That’s tough to contend with in a series. I just think they have the most complete team.”
AL scout: “As good as [Bo] Bichette, Vlad [Guerrero Jr.] and [George] Springer have been, it’s the contributions from guys from the left side of the plate like [Nathan] Lukes and [Addison] Barger which make Toronto really dangerous. They have some balance, which has eluded them.”
AL exec: “I love their team, but I question their bullpen. It hasn’t been very stout in the second half. Tommy Nance might be a guy to lean on.”
Biggest threat to Blue Jays: Detroit Tigers
AL player: “Detroit is high up on that list [of teams to beat]. They know how to win. That’s the biggest thing. They proved that last offseason. And they’ve turned that park into a nice home-field advantage. I know they go first to third better than anyone. That’s a key, playing in that ballpark.”
AL scout: “Sometimes seeing a team play a lot you can get a more negative opinion than what their record is, and sometimes it can be a more positive opinion than their record. With the Tigers, it’s the latter. And they already have a pretty good record.”
AL exec: “I’ve tried to fill out playoff rotations without a true ace. It’s really tough. So having Tarik Skubal makes all the difference for me. Unless he runs out of gas, Detroit is my pick.”
If not Toronto or Detroit, then who?
A case can be made for any of the wild-card entrants — depending on where Houston finishes, as it remains in a tight division battle with Seattle — to pull off an October upset with big-game experience oozing from the Astros and Yankees lineups. New York can also slug, of course, while the return of Yordan Alvarez makes Houston’s offense ever so dangerous again.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have made the postseason only once (2021) since winning the World Series in 2018. However, they feature a balanced lineup with playoff leadership in the form of Alex Bregman. Plus, Aroldis Chapman is about as good as it gets on the closer front.
AL exec: “I think their bullpen will get hot, and [they] have enough power bats to get through a weaker field in the AL.”
AL player: “It’s the Red Sox. They are playing good baseball. They have formidable pitching starting with [Garrett] Crochet and their lineup is cohesive and looks like they have a good time together. They know how to win with Bregman there.”
AL player: “Everyone is forgetting that Yordan Alvarez missed most of the season. He’s a difference-maker. And when we played them, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown were as good as any two pitchers. Houston is my pick.”
Everyone’s October sleeper pick: Seattle Mariners
Until recently, the Mariners hadn’t shown the league their best hand, ending up in the sleeper category because of it. Those we spoke to said Seattle simply has more upside available to it than any other team.
AL player: “A team that can get really hot that isn’t playing its best baseball is Seattle. That pitching staff is legit. [Cal] Raleigh hit 50 [home runs] but they have other guys that are built for that moment — the spotlight moment. Randy Arozarena and [Eugenio] Suarez are two of them. They’re built to win late.”
NL player: “It’s one of those lineups where everyone is waiting for them to put it all together. Their rotation is very talented, and they have one of the best closers in the league. I think they’re one of those teams that, if they get hot at the right time, no one can beat them.”
AL exec: “Seattle has one of its best teams we’ve seen there in years. If there is a real sleeper in this entire playoff field, it’s the Seattle Mariners.”
AL exec: “Seattle is my ‘surprise’ team. I think a bad year for pitching in Seattle could get flipped on its head in the postseason with their starters picking it up.”
A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers closing in on the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title and the Los Angeles Dodgers are headed back to October, again.
And in the biggest twist of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the American League playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in both the AL Central and wild-card races entering the final week.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Saturday with a Mets’ loss to Texas.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sunday with the Giants’ loss to the Dodgers. On Monday with a win over the Dodgers, they clinched the NL East title for the second straight year.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Wednesday with a win over the Pirates. It’s their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018.
The Dodgers clinched their 13th consecutive playoff appearance on Friday when the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners and Padres all have at least a 97% chance of making the postseason, as well.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Guardians at (3) Tigers, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Guardians/Tigers vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays have taken control of the race for the AL’s No. 1 seed. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And the Seattle Mariners are attempting to separate themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are in hot pursuit of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets clinging to a lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot, and there is intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.
The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.
Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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