Can DJ Lagway become Florida’s next great quarterback?
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Andrea Adelson
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — DJ Lagway has a vivid memory of one of his first visits to Florida. He remembers sitting in the quarterbacks meeting room with future first-round pick Anthony Richardson and a few other players, coach Billy Napier and assistant Ryan O’Hara.
Lagway was at the beginning of his high school quarterback career, just starting to dive into the ins and outs of what it takes to play the position. He heard them going over concepts in intricate detail, but he also saw the way the coaches taught, the way the players learned and the relationship they all had with one another.
The more he listened, the more he realized how badly he needed to be in this room himself, believing he could become elite with this type of coaching. “They were just talking and I’m like, ‘I don’t know what that is, but I’ve got to learn that,'” Lagway says.
He committed to Florida in 2022, at a time when Napier needed a big recruiting win. Though he was a toddler in Willis, Texas, when Florida had won its last national championship in 2008, Lagway grew up on stories about the Gators. He loved the colors. He loved the swagger the team played with.
His cousins used to play college football video games, and as a way to appease him, they gave him a fake controller so he could feel like he was playing with them. The first cover he remembers had Tim Tebow on it.
Lagway knew full well how much pressure comes with playing quarterback at a school that has produced three Heisman Trophy winners at the position, but he believed in what he heard in that meeting room, and he believed that Napier could help him live up to expectations. He held firm to his commitment, signed in 2023 and wowed when he played as a true freshman last season.
Now, the stage in Gainesville is his. No fake game controllers needed.
FOUR YEARS AGO, very few people outside Texas knew about Lagway. He started his freshman year at Willis High at safety, playing quarterback situationally. Once the season ended, though, he switched full time to quarterback and started working with a private coach. That summer, headed into his sophomore year, he went to a prospect camp at Texas, zero offers in hand.
Arch Manning, the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the class of 2023, was at the same camp. Lagway admits he was a bit in awe. He embraced the opportunity to learn from Texas coach Steve Sarkisian but also measure himself against some of the top quarterback prospects a year ahead of him.
“I did pretty well, actually,” Lagway says. “It let me know that I can go out there and compete with anybody. It was just fun to see how my talent stacked up with other players in the state and seeing that I can do it. With a lot of more work and a lot of more time put in, it was going to pay off.”
As a sophomore, he relied on his ability as a runner while he learned the mechanics of how to become a great passer. Lagway went to Gainesville for a visit right after that season, the first spring Napier was at Florida in 2022. Napier said he had watched the tape and saw a big, long athletic player he described as “a ball of clay” because he was just getting started at quarterback. It was a no-brainer to offer him a scholarship.
“That meant the world to me,” Lagway says.
Napier went to visit Lagway in Texas whenever he could, and the two formed a close bond. Lagway started to rise in the recruiting rankings, becoming the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in his class. And following his junior season in 2022, Lagway committed to Florida.
He still had one year left to play in high school, and he made the most of it, throwing 58 touchdown passes and rushing for 16 more en route to Gatorade National Player of the Year honors.
But as Lagway reached new heights in 2023, Florida struggled, losing five straight to end the season. Florida recruits started to decommit, and Lagway kept getting phone calls from programs eager to flip his commitment, telling him Napier would not last long with the Gators. If Lagway changed his mind on Florida, Napier may have been on even shakier ground after going 5-7 to close out his second season as coach.
“He was in one of those ‘tip the scale’ scenarios,” Napier said. “We lost probably four or five other commits down the stretch there. We built that class around him, and if he folds his cards, then probably a lot of other kids do, too. But he stuck. He had a vision for what he wanted to do here. He has a little bit of that edge to where he feels like he could be the catalyst. He could be the one.”
Lagway says that despite the calls from other schools, he never wavered in his decision to go to Florida.
“I stayed true to my commitment because I’m a man of my word,” Lagway said. “I saw day to day how Coach Napier and Coach O’Hara coach, and I knew if I was in their system, I’d be getting developed to get to the NFL.”
Napier believes their early interest in him played a big role. So does O’Hara, the quarterbacks coach at Florida.
“He has no fear. That’s the part that I always come back to, is: ‘Why did you stay committed to us?'” O’Hara said. “He saw the vision. He believed in Napier. He believed in what I could teach him to develop at quarterback. He believed in the system. He believed in the players we were recruiting. He never flinched.
“People were throwing money at him, taking trips to see him. Some heavy hitters, really good quarterback developers. He sees Anthony get drafted, and then the development with (Graham) Mertz, and was like, ‘OK, I can go do this. I can make this my place.’ He did that last year. Now it’s his turn.”
THE AUTOGRAPHED FOOTBALL sits at the center of the table inside the quarterbacks room at the Florida football facility. O’Hara picks it up, explaining that his dad gave it to him as a gift when he was officially promoted to the position earlier this spring after serving as an offensive analyst.
O’Hara took one look at the ball, signed by the Heisman winning trio of Danny Wuerffel, Steve Spurrier and Tim Tebow, and decided it would stay in the meeting room, “just for the guys to keep the aura around, like, ‘Remember where you’re at.'”
Not that Lagway needs any reminders.
The vibes are far different than they were a year ago, when the pressure was on Napier to deliver. The plan was for Lagway to play situationally behind Mertz. But after Mertz sustained a concussion in the season opener against Miami, Lagway had his opportunity to start Week 2 against Samford.
“That whole week was a roller coaster,” Lagway said. “I was battling with some shoulder soreness, just trying to figure out what was going on with that. I wasn’t even sure I was going to play, not even sure I was going to play the season. But still being able to lock in and prepare and just give it my all, that’s what I wanted to do.”
Lagway ended up starting and set a Florida true freshman record with 456 yards passing and three touchdowns. That performance was all Florida fans had to see to double down on their belief that Lagway was the next Gators quarterback great. How did he do that with a sore shoulder? “I’m still trying to figure that out,” he says with a chuckle. Mertz went down with a season-ending knee injury against Tennessee in mid-October. Lagway entered the game and threw a 27-yard touchdown pass with 29 seconds left to send the game into overtime before Florida ultimately lost.
Three weeks later, Lagway had Florida up 10-3 on Georgia in the second quarter. But he pulled his hamstring and missed the rest of the game, and Florida lost for the seventh time in the last eight games against its rival. The injuries felt like they were piling up on Lagway, but so was the pressure he placed on himself to perform.
“That was very frustrating, because I knew how close I was to achieving something that hasn’t been achieved in a long time,” Lagway said. “This is where I kind of messed up, too. I was always looking for that big moment to make history. I wanted to be in the history books forever.”
There is still time for that, of course, but what Lagway did as a true freshman has set the stage for 2025. Lagway went 6-1 as the starter — the lone loss to Georgia, a game he did not finish. His performance also helped stabilize a program that had been teetering. Athletic director Scott Stricklin announced last November that Napier would return for Year 4.
“That decision by Scott was not about me,” Napier said. “It is more of an investment in the entire group. If we don’t have good people, then we probably do splinter. We probably do fall apart. I do think you saw the players take a deep breath and then go play the game the way it should be played down the stretch.”
Indeed, Florida finished on a four-game winning streak, including upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss with Lagway leading the charge. It was the first time since 2003 that an unranked Florida team had beaten Top 25 opponents in consecutive games.
IN JANUARY, O’HARA asked Lagway to come up with a list of goals for this season. They turned it into a PowerPoint slide and saved it, so Lagway can look at it as a reminder whenever he wants. They are keeping those goals private for now, but there is no doubting what Lagway wants: a championship.
To that end, he has spent the offseason watching tape whenever possible. “He’s obsessed with playing quarterback,” O’Hara says.
So obsessed that he texted Napier a screenshot of Kirk Cousins‘ home screen setup after watching the “Quarterback” series on Netflix and asked for the same thing so he could also watch tape like that at home. He texts O’Hara constantly with questions, videos, notes, voice memos, eager to learn as much as possible.
“The big emphasis this year is looking at defenses,” O’Hara said. “We come in here and we might watch 60 clips of one coverage and watch how it unfolds against all these concepts. That’s where he’ll be better, defensive recognition and tying that in with playing more on time from the pocket, getting the ball out quickly, being clean with his footwork and then shortening up his stroke.”
“I want to get better at the boring plays” is something Lagway says to O’Hara all the time. It is obvious how electric he can be with the ball in his hands, but O’Hara said the coaching staff has tried to emphasize to Lagway that checking down and throwing to the running back is sometimes a better option than taking off and running.
Keeping the starting quarterback healthy is obviously a necessary ingredient for any team’s success, but Florida has to be particularly mindful with Lagway. He missed spring practice after offseason core muscle surgery and struggled with shoulder soreness. He has dealt with a calf strain throughout preseason camp. Lagway says the injuries he has faced since his arrival have been frustrating, but he is trying not to dwell on them.
He has asked former Gators quarterbacks for advice. He has listened when Spurrier has walked into the quarterbacks room to go over his own mantras and best practices. Napier says Lagway is also trying to figure out how to handle his stardom on campus.
“He can’t go to the softball game without people lining up when he goes to get a drink at the concession stand,” Napier says. “He’s learning a different lifestyle in that regard. He’s navigating the injury bug. He’s navigating this superstar spotlight. He’s navigating the expectations of this season. For us, we have to help him deal with all the things that come with being the quarterback at a place like this.”
He is a celebrity, though, as much as Florida has tried to shield him from all the hype. Over the summer, he filmed a T-Mobile commercial with Patrick Mahomes and Rob Gronkowski. He has other NIL deals with Gatorade, Nintendo, Leaf Trading Cards and Lamborghini Orlando. Lagway has donated part of the money he has received through those deals to support women’s athletic programs at Florida and to start his own foundation in partnership with UF Health.
Those deals do not happen without his talent or his star power. The focus, at least to Lagway and the coaching staff, is on all the ways he can be better this season. O’Hara says Lagway’s instincts to see the field and make plays are “as pure as I’ve ever been around at any position.”
But instincts only take you so far.
“People think he’s just this big, talented dude, but he really wants to improve at every part of playing quarterback,” O’Hara says. “That’s what makes him so dangerous. He can be as good as he wants to be.”
Lagway himself says he wants to make history. There is one certain way to do that when playing quarterback at Florida: ending the recent run of mediocrity and winning a championship.
“I knew what I signed up for coming into this so I’m excited for it,” Lagway said. “It’s going to be fun.”
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Greg Wyshynski
The Nashville Predators disagreed that a “weird” Minnesota Wild overtime goal scored with the net displaced Tuesday night should have counted.
Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov sent a pass across the crease to teammate Marcus Johansson just as Predators goalie Justus Annunen pushed the net off its moorings. Johansson’s shot hit the side of the net as the cage continued to slide out of place. He collected the puck and then backhanded it over the goal line and off the end boards with the net dislodged.
The referee signaled a goal at 3:38 of overtime, and it was upheld after an NHL video review. Minnesota won, 3-2, overcoming an emotional letdown when Nashville’s Steven Stamkos tied the score with just 0.3 seconds left in regulation.
“The explanation was that, in [the referee’s] opinion, it was a goal. I disagree with his opinion, but that’s the way it is,” Nashville coach Andrew Brunette said.
Stamkos wasn’t pleased with the goal call after the game.
“Obviously, a weird play. I can see the confusion, but the confusing part for us was why it was so emphatically called [a goal]. I get it. Listen, the net came off. If the puck goes in right away, no problem if the net is off. But he missed the net, and the puck actually bounced back to him because the net was sideways,” he said.
The NHL’s Situation Room upheld the goal because it felt Annunen caused the net to be displaced prior to an “imminent scoring opportunity” by Johansson and cited Rule 63.7 as justification. The rule reads:
“In the event that the goal post is displaced, either deliberately or accidentally, by a defending player, prior to the puck crossing the goal line between the normal position of the goalposts, the Referee may award a goal. In order to award a goal in this situation, the goal post must have been displaced by the actions of a defending player, the attacking player must have an imminent scoring opportunity prior to the goal post being displaced, and it must be determined that the puck would have entered the net between the normal position of the goal posts.”
Stamkos didn’t believe that Johansson’s goal-scoring shot was only made possible by the net having come off its moorings.
“I understand the net came off. I don’t think there was any intent from our goaltender to knock it off — it came off twice today. From our vantage point, we thought the puck came back to him on the second attempt because the net was off. If not, the puck goes behind the net, and we live to fight another day. So, that’s where we didn’t agree with the call,” he said.
Brunette doesn’t believe his goalie intentionally pushed the net off its moorings.
“I don’t think just by the physics of pushing that’s what he was trying to do. I thought they missed the net. If the net didn’t dislodge, you would have ended up hitting the net,” he said.
“Unfortunately, they didn’t see it the same way. And you move on.”
This was the second win in a row for the Wild, moving them to 5-6-3 on the season. Nashville dropped to 5-6-4, losing its second straight overtime game.
“We deserved a lot better, for sure. One of our best games of the season, for sure,” Stamkos said.
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David Hale
The College Football Playoff committee has released its first top 25 ranking of the season, which is the sport’s version of Walmart opening its doors at midnight on Black Friday. Things are about to get ugly, and someone’s going to end up bloodied while fighting Oklahoma for a spot in the top 12. In other words, it’s the best time of year.
This year, the committee has said it is considering a new “record strength” metric, designed to provide some math-based guidance in the process and to soon replace “game control” as the country’s most hated made-up statistic.
Ten weeks into a season filled with a lot of chaos and few seemingly great teams, however, the committee needs all the help it can get. For example, just eight teams in the country have already beaten more than one of the committee’s current top 25 — and one of those eight teams is NC State. Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Pitt, Washington, Missouri and Tennessee — all ranked this week — are a combined 0-12 against other teams in the committee’s top 25. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked higher than 14th, and the Group of 5 doesn’t have a team ranked at all, making these rankings less about the coveted top 12 than a need to be in the top 10.
In other words, there’s a lot still in flux as we dive deeper into the final month of the season. But that means our anger toward the committee is just simmering for now, waiting for the rage to boil over in the weeks to come.
Still, a few schools have a pretty good case for outrage already.
In all the hubbub over last year’s final playoff rankings that left a trio of SEC teams out, what went overlooked was that BYU might have had more to be angry about than Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Two of those teams, at least, had taken a bad loss. Each of those teams had three losses. BYU, on the other hand, checked in on the committee’s final ranking behind each of them despite a 10-2 record and two close losses to solid teams.
So, certainly the committee would feel some compassion for the Cougars this year and consider the Cougars with a bit more optimism, right?
Ah, no.
Let’s take a look at some blind résumés.
Team A: No. 3 strength of record, No. 33 strength of schedule, 4-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 11 in the committee’s poll.
Team B: No. 4 strength of record, No. 45 strength of schedule, 3-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 13 in the committee’s poll.
Sure, Team A has a slight edge, but the résumés look pretty similar.
Well, Team A is the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. Surely, if another team’s résumé looks more or less the same, that team would be staring down a bye in the first round of the playoff, right?
Nope. Team B is BYU, and the Cougars sit behind three SEC teams with a loss, all three of which are ranked lower in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Given that BYU has a massive showdown with Texas Tech upcoming, perhaps the committee just punted on any tough decisions on the Cougars for this week. After all, given how much love the committee has shown the Big Ten in these rankings, punting would be a fitting play.
We get it. As a conference, the ACC might, in fact, just be an episode of “Punk’d” that Ashton Kutcher started in 2008, then got distracted and forgot to let everyone know it was a prank. The conference’s train wreck in Week 10 certainly showed up in these rankings — more on that in a moment — but it’s almost as if the committee just threw Louisville into the mix, deciding the Cardinals were guilty by association.
Let’s take another look at some blind résumés, shall we?
Team A: No. 10 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 13 team, lone loss vs. an unranked team.
Team B: No. 13 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, lone loss to committee’s No. 14 team.
This is basically a coin flip, though given the additional wins vs. high-level opponents and a better loss, it would be hard to argue against Team B, right? Add to that, Team B’s lone loss came in double overtime in a game when it outgained its opponent by 150 yards. Surely, you would be on Team B’s side now, right?
Well, not surprisingly, Team B is Louisville. Team A is Texas Tech, ranked seven spots higher at No. 8.
There seems to be a desire to write Miami off because of two losses in the past three games and given the strife the team seems to be enduring on offense, perhaps that’s wise.
But two things are supposed to be true of the committee’s evaluation process. One, the committee is not supposed to care when wins and losses happen. Losing in September isn’t better than losing in November. A loss is a loss. Second, the committee is not supposed to make assumptions about the future. Sure, Miami’s offense is a mess at the moment, but assuming that will result in future losses isn’t part of the deal.
And yet, putting Miami at No. 18 — eight full spots behind another two-loss team the Canes beat head-to-head — can only be explained by the vibes. Notre Dame’s season is rolling right along now. Miami has hit some stumbling blocks. Never mind the Canes are two late Carson Beck interceptions away from still being undefeated. Never mind that Miami has four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams, twice as many as any other two-loss team except Oklahoma. Never mind that Miami has that head-to-head against the No. 10 team in the committee’s rankings or that it walloped a Florida team that took No. 5 Georgia to the wire and actually beat No. 11 Texas. Never mind that Miami beat a then-ranked USF by 37.
Instead, the committee has assigned Miami to the scrap heap now — which is a shame because Miami would probably have done this to itself anyway, and it’s so much funnier when it happens in the last game of the season.
4. The Group of 5
A year ago, Boise State found its way into a first-round bye ahead of the champion of a Power 4 league, which was probably pretty embarrassing for that Power 4 league except that the ACC embarrasses itself often enough to be pretty well immune to shame.
The rules have changed this year. The top four conference champs aren’t guaranteed a first-round bye now. But that doesn’t seem to have stopped the committee from stacking the deck anyway, just to be safe.
Not one team outside the Power 4 found its way into these initial rankings, though the committee notes that Memphis currently is in the lead for the long Group of 5 playoff bid.
So, surely the Group of 5 should be pretty upset, right?
Yes, but not about being snubbed from the top-25 party. None of the leaders in the Group of 5 have a great case — certainly none like Boise State had a year ago. But Memphis? Really? The same team that lost by a touchdown to a UAB team had just fired its coach?
In the committee’s new guidance to consider record strength, there is an assumption that really bad losses are weighted heavily, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this time around.
North Texas has one loss to SP+ No. 27.
James Madison has one loss to SP+ No. 16 (and the No. 15 team in the committee’s rankings).
San Diego State has one loss to SP+ No. 73 has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
Memphis has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Tigers weren’t punished at all for a terrible loss.
5. The SEC
The latter half of the committee’s top 25 is usually the equivalent of the phone lines for a Finebaum episode — just a place where a lot of mediocre SEC folks hang out, patiently waiting for their turn. But this time, the committee has stuffed the bottom of the rankings with Big Ten teams — No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington — and that might actually matter in the long run.
One of the committee’s favored metrics is wins over ranked opponents. We’re dubious about how many Big Ten teams deserve a little number next to their name. The league still has four teams that have yet to win a conference game, and the bottom third is a complete dumpster fire. It’s easy to rack up some wins when half your conference schedule has already been embarrassed by UCLA’s interim coaching staff.
But the SEC — that’s where the real depth is. Nearly half the SEC’s conference games this season have been one-possession affairs. Mississippi State, a team that had gone nearly two years without an SEC win, already knocked off last year’s Big 12 champ. LSU, a team that fired its coach, has a win over last year’s ACC champ. Florida beat Texas. Putting a bunch of undeserving teams at the bottom of the rankings only serves to prop up the résumés of teams such as Oregon, which hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. And frankly, the committee is supposed to do that for the SEC, not the Big Ten.
Also angry: Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, No. 14, behind four two-loss teams), USF Bulls (6-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, unranked), Brian Kelly (just angry for other reasons).
The ACC is already playing from behind, and it’s only the first ranking of the season. With no teams ranked in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s initial top 12 on Tuesday night, the lone ACC team in the bracket if it were released today would be No. 14 Virginia. The Cavaliers would earn a spot as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.
As for No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami? Not even a head-to-head win against the No. 10-ranked Fighting Irish was enough to keep the Canes within playoff range after their loss at SMU.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s first ranking on Tuesday night.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are currently in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing early. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it’s favored in each of its remaining games by at least 72% and has the seventh-best chance in the country (55.4%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also help them in the committee meeting room. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though, and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12, then the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at No. 25 Tennessee and have a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for it. That could change on Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State but also recognize the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (18%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game it’s not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If the Trojans can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, though, the committee would definitely consider them for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. All three of these teams were ranked by the committee on Tuesday night, but No. 20 Iowa has the shortest climb into the conversation and gets a chance for a marquee win when it hosts No. 9 Oregon on Saturday. Michigan still has a chance to run the table and impress the committee with a win against its No. 1 team, Ohio State, but the head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking. If USC loses again, though, and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, then they’re going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday but lose to it in the Big 12 championship game, they would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as they end the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The No. 13 Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.2%) but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but it might have a hard time earning an at-large bid without being able to beat at least one of the best teams in its league. If there is some movement above the Utes, though, they could quickly earn a promotion given their place on the bubble after the first ranking.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. They’re included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. The unranked Bearcats have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss compared with the Yellow Jackets’ double-digit defeat. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season and their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4 but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above it lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly on Tuesday, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and these teams are all still technically in contention to play for the ACC title. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (66.6%), followed by Georgia Tech (41.3%) and Louisville (33.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami has only a 2.7% chance to reach the championship game — also behind Duke and SMU.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The selection committee’s decision to render the head-to-head loss to Miami moot was critical for both teams. The group rewarded Notre Dame for its eye test and recent surge during a six-game winning streak. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (64.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers are playing well, have won five straight and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Notre Dame’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and the Irish are 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Memphis wasn’t ranked in the committee’s top 25, but the group continues to rank teams until a Group of 5 team is included and then publicizes which one it is without revealing the full ranking and which teams might have been ahead. The Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on the Tigers’ résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: USF, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider USF’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the first committee ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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