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Piecing together a list of the best players in college football before the season begins is no easy task. It requires a mix of information, reporting and assumptions.

While some choices are easy (Jeremiah Smith is good, you heard it here first) and some projections are nearly universally agreed upon (hello, Arch Manning), there are enough wild cards to ensure that, by season’s end, this list will probably look at least a little silly.

Georgia, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Alabama all start new QBs with little experience, so ranking those players near the top seems presumptuous. Odds are, though, at least a few will be Heisman Trophy contenders by season’s end.

Smith, Leonard Moore and Ryan Williams quickly established themselves as stars during elite freshman campaigns in 2024, but it’s a nearly impossible task to predict which first-year players will break out in 2025.

This time a year ago, few people had pegged Sam Leavitt, LaNorris Sellers or Blake Horvath as household names, but each proved to be among the best in the country by the conclusion of the campaign. Who will be this season’s surprises? If we knew, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

Our top 100 players represent something of a compromise. Five of ESPN’s college football experts (David Hale, Adam Rittenberg, Chris Low, Paolo Uggetti and Bill Connelly) weighed in, each using some variation of hard data and educated guesswork to compile a list. They then debated, refined and adjusted until coming to an agreement — or, perhaps, just giving up — on an official ranking.

It might not be perfect, but that’s the beauty of a new college football season: No matter what we expect in August, we’ll look back later to find we hardly knew anything at all. — David Hale

Jump to a section: 100-76 | 75-51 | 50-26 | 25-1

WR, Auburn, sophomore
2024 stats: 56 rec, 754 yards, 3 TD
2024 postseason ranking: NR

There’s a reason new Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold said throwing the ball to Singleton was “like throwing routes on air.” Singleton was one of the most coveted wideouts in the transfer portal after hauling in 104 passes for 1,468 yards with nine touchdowns in two seasons at Georgia Tech. The Atlanta native can flat-out fly. If Arnold adjusts to Hugh Freeze’s offense effectively, the Tigers might have one of the top receiver trios in the SEC in Singleton, Wake Forest transfer Horatio Fields and sophomore Cam Coleman. — Mark Schlabach


WR, Clemson, sophomore
2024 stats: 708 receiving yards, 5 TD, 41 catches
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Wesco earned raves as a true freshman during camp last season, but he didn’t get a real shot at serious playing time until Week 5 against Stanford, when he racked up 104 receiving yards and a touchdown. From there, he blossomed into one of Clemson’s biggest threats on offense, racking up 36 catches for 574 yards from Week 5 on. — Hale


C, Iowa, senior
2024 stat: 1 sack allowed
2024 postseason
ranking: NR

The 6-foot-3, 302-pound Jones is the linchpin of the Hawkeyes’ line who helped running back Kaleb Johnson have a breakout season in 2024. A converted defensive lineman, Jones has settled in well to the role and turned himself into one of the most consistent centers in the country. — Paolo Uggetti


QB, Vanderbilt, senior
2024 stats: 2,293 yards, 20 TD, 74.6 QBR
2024 postseason
ranking: 69

In his first year in the SEC, Pavia led Vandy to its first bowl win in 11 years, its first win over Alabama in 40 years and its first win ever over a No. 1 team. He finished 2024 with 2,293 passing yards, 927 non-sack rushing yards and 28 combined touchdowns, and he enjoyed himself enough in the process that he sued for an extra year of eligibility — and won. So, he’s back! — Bill Connelly


OT, Clemson, senior
2024 stat: 2.9% allowed pressure percentage
2024 postseason ranking: NR

One of the most consistent blockers in the country, Miller has been a fixture on Clemson’s offensive line since he was a freshman, racking up 41 career starts. He allowed four sacks all season, never more than one in the same game. — Hale


RB, Texas A&M, senior
2024 stats: 121 carries, 765 yards, 10 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Moss says he is 100 percent recovered from a knee injury that sidelined him for the final four games of the 2024 season, and that’s good news for the Aggies. Before going down, Moss ran for 765 yards with 10 touchdowns in nine games. He ranked second in the SEC with 6.3 yards per carry. With Rueben Owens II returning from a foot injury that sidelined him for most of 2024, the Aggies should have one of the better one-two punches in the FBS. — Schlabach


DB, SMU, senior
2024 stats: 100 tackles, 3 INT, 3 PD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The heart and soul of SMU’s defense, Nwokobia allowed just 75 yards, picked off three passes on 19 targets all season, while serving as a stalwart in run defense, racking up 100 tackles. More than just an on-field star, Nwokobia wears No. 23 for the Mustangs, an honor that goes to the player who best represents the leadership and fearlessness of SMU great Jerry Lavias, the first Black player in the old Southwest Conference. — Hale


WR, LSU, junior
2024 stats: 61 receptions, 884 yards, 5 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The former Alabama transfer emerged as a star receiver for LSU last season, leading the team with 61 catches for 884 yards with five touchdowns. His biggest moment came late in the fourth quarter in the Tigers’ 29-26 victory against Ole Miss on Oct. 12. He caught a 23-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-5 with 27 seconds remaining to force overtime. Anderson also had eight catches for 100 yards in a 44-31 win against Baylor in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl.Schlabach


LB, Texas Tech, senior
2024 stats: 127 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 5 sacks
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Much is made of Tech’s transfers this offseason, but the return of Rodriguez for his senior year might be the Red Raiders’ most important defensive player. At 6-1, 235 pounds, Rodriguez is a formidable presence who was a first-team All-Big 12 honoree and was named preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year this year. — Dave Wilson


RB, Missouri, sophomore
2024 stats: 237 carries, 1,351 yards, 13 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Here’s a list of heavily used running backs (175 carries or more) who forced more missed tackles per touch than Hardy in 2024: [null]. As a freshman at the UL Monroe, Hardy bulled his way to 1,351 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, dodging tacklers well and running through them when necessary. Now the Oma, Mississippi, native moves to the SEC, where he will immediately become a feature back for a Mizzou team coming off of back-to-back 10-win seasons. — Connelly


LB, Buffalo, senior
2024 stats: 156 tackles, 2 sacks, 7 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The school that produced Khalil Mack, and most recently Shaun Dolac, has another defender firmly on the national radar. Murdock had one of the more statistically dominant seasons in the country last fall, leading the FBS with seven forced fumbles, finishing second in tackles with 156 and 12th in tackles for loss with 16.5. After helping Buffalo to nine wins in coach Pete Lembo’s first season, he’s back to challenge for national honors. — Adam Rittenberg


QB, Iowa State, junior
2024 stats: 3,505 yards, 25 TD, 69.4 QBR
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Becht guided the Cyclones to a school-record 11 wins in 2024 and capped the season with an MVP performance in a 42-41 win against Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. This season will be his third as Iowa State’s starter, and he will enter the year with 6,690 career passing yards and 48 touchdown passes. He’ll have a revamped receiving corps to work with, but his experience should keep the Cyclones among the favorites in the Big 12. — Kyle Bonagura


OL, Georgia Tech, senior
2024 stats: 1 sack allowed, 77.8 pass-blocking grade
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The day he committed to Georgia Tech after transferring from Middle Tennessee, Rutledge wrecked his truck and suffered a severe foot injury that nearly resulted in an amputation. Instead, he started every game for the Yellow Jackets, earned first-team All-ACC honors and proved to be one of the most formidable interior linemen in the country. — Hale


C, Alabama, junior
2024 stats: 63 knockdown blocks, 80.7 run-blocking grade
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Brailsford is the anchor of what could be a very good Alabama offensive line. After transferring from Washington, Brailsford had an 80.7 run-blocking grade, which ranked second among Power 4 centers, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). He had 63 knockdown blocks and allowed only a half-sack. — Schlabach


DB, Arizona State, senior
2024 stats: 40 solo tackles, 2 INT, 5 PD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After stints at Texas and USC, Alford had a breakout season with the Sun Devils in 2024, playing a huge role in the upstart program’s run to the College Football Playoff. According to ASU, he allowed just nine receptions in coverage while playing 522 snaps — an incredible ratio that ranked among the very best defensive backs in the country. — Bonagura


S, Penn State, senior
2024 stats: 95 tackles, 50 solo, 1 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Anyone who tracked Penn State’s postseason run noticed Wheatley, who played his best during some of the team’s biggest moments last season. He earned VRBO Fiesta Bowl Defensive Player of the Game honors against Boise State in the CFP quarterfinal after recording an interception and a fumble recovery. Wheatley then had an interception, a sack and 16 tackles against Notre Dame in Penn State’s narrow loss in the CFP semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl. He earned honorable mention All-Big Ten honors. — Rittenberg


DE, Rutgers, senior
2024 stats: 52 solo, 13 sacks, 3 PD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

One of Rutgers’ biggest additions in the offseason, O’Neill comes from James Madison after a standout campaign with the Dukes. The 6-3, 255-pound end was a force to be reckoned with and set the pace for a stingy JMU defense that led the nation in turnover margins last year. — Uggetti


RB, Washington, senior
2024 stats: 193 carries, 1,053 yards, 10 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Many of the core players from Jedd Fisch’s 10-win Arizona team in 2023 remained in Tucson, but Coleman followed his coach to Washington and maintained his success with a new team and in a new league. An honorable mention All-Pac-12 selection in 2023, he earned third-team All-Big Ten honors last season at Washington, where he rushed for 1,053 yards and 10 touchdowns, despite logging more than 19 carries only twice. — Rittenberg


CB, Indiana, junior
2024 stats: 35 solo tackles, 3 INT, 9 PD
2024
postseason ranking: 51

After an impressive true freshman season at James Madison, Ponds joined coach Curt Cignetti at Indiana and earned first-team All-Big Ten honors as well as All-America recognition. He had two interceptions, including a 67-yard pick-six, against Washington and blocked a punt for a safety against Michigan State. His most productive games came against top competition, as he had three passes defended against Ohio State and an interception against Notre Dame. — Rittenberg


DE, Michigan, senior
2024 stats: 23 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After two straight seasons of consistent production for the Wolverines’ defense, Moore heads into his senior season ready to once again be one of the key cogs in Wink Martindale’s unit. At Big Ten media days, Moore made news by joking that Ohio State’s title was not a “real win” because the Buckeyes didn’t beat Michigan. — Uggetti


S, Georgia, sophomore
2024 stats: 59 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After playing in 14 games and starting two as a freshman, Bolden is being counted on to become a leader in Georgia’s secondary. With safeties Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson departing for the NFL, the sophomore is now the Bulldogs’ last line of defense. He was named to the SEC All-Freshman team after finishing fifth on the team with 59 tackles in 2024. — Schlabach


QB, Kansas State, junior
2024 stats: 2,712 yards, 605 yards rushed, 25 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

In his first season as a full-time starter at K-State, Johnson flashed glimpses of his dual-threat stardom, most notably against Oklahoma State, when he threw for three touchdowns and ran for two more, passing for 259 yards and running for 60 yards. A former national top-100 recruit and a Kansas native, he is driven to return the Wildcats to the top of the Big 12 and beyond. — Wilson


WR, Indiana, senior
2024 stats: 53 receptions, 957 yards, 8 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Sarratt has produced everywhere he has been, from FCS Saint Francis to James Madison to Indiana, and played a big role in helping coach Cignetti flip the Hoosiers into an instant CFP contender in 2024. He finished sixth in the Big Ten in receiving yards in his debut season and third in yards per catch (18.1) but still chose to run it back for one more season with Cignetti rather than go pro. — Max Olson


LB, Indiana, senior
2024 stats: 118 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 4 PD
2024 postseason ranking: 73

Heading into his senior season, Fisher has been a tackle machine for the Hoosiers and is set to be a crucial part of their defense yet again. The 6-1, 231-pound linebacker was a first-team All-American last year. — Uggetti


OL, Notre Dame, sophomore
2024 stats: 15 starts, 818 snaps, 3 sacks allowed
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After expected starter Charles Jagusah went down before the 2024 season, Notre Dame turned to Knapp, a true freshman, to anchor the line. All he did was help pave the way for a Notre Dame offense that ranked seventh nationally in rushing average, protect QB Riley Leonard’s blind side while surrendering just three sacks, and help the Fighting Irish march to a national championship game appearance. — Hale


TE, Ohio State, junior
2024 stats: 1 reception, 685 yards, 4 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

At 6-4 and 236 pounds, you won’t miss Klare on the field, and for whoever does line up under center for the Buckeyes, Klare will quickly become a favorite target. The junior had a breakout season last year, and there’s a sense that this season could be even bigger for the Purdue product. — Uggetti


OL, Penn State, junior
2024 stats: 0 sacks allowed in 900+ snaps
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Ioane proved he was ready to play as a redshirt freshman with five starts at left guard in 2023, then took his game to another level last season as a 16-game starter who earned second-team All-Big Ten honors. He surrendered zero sacks over the course of the Nittany Lions’ run to the CFP semifinals, according to ESPN Research, and finished with just eight pressures allowed and three penalties on the year while playing the most snaps (957) of any player in the Big Ten. — Olson


S, Illinois, senior
2024 stats: 49 tackles, 6 PD, 4 INT
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Scott was targeted more than any other defensive back in the Big Ten in his second year as a starter, according to TruMedia, and he fared well in allowing just 28 catches on 63 targets (44%) and 4.9 yards per target with the second-most interceptions in the conference. The first-team All-Big Ten performer will help lead an Illini squad with big-time expectations for 2025. — Olson


DT, Penn State, senior
2024 stats: 42 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Durant isn’t just going to be a space eater in new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ scheme this fall. The two-year starter is a disruptor up front who has generated 26 pressures at defensive tackle over the past two seasons, most among all returning Big Ten linemen, according to ESPN Research. — Olson


OG, Missouri, junior
2024 stats: 776 snaps played, 3 allowed pressures
2024
postseason ranking: NR

A former top-60 recruit and Under Armour All-American from Lee’s Summit, Missouri, Green started as a true freshman at Oklahoma, then transferred to his home-state school in 2024. He was an immediate hit in Columbia, allowing just three pressures with five blown run blocks in 13 starts and 776 snaps. With a new quarterback and reasonably new skill corps, Mizzou will be leaning on Green and the interior line to establish efficiency in 2025. — Connelly


QB, SMU, junior
2024 stats: 28 TD, 3,245 passing yards, 354 rushing yards
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After taking over as SMU’s starter in Week 4, Jennings ignited the Mustangs’ offense, leading them to a playoff berth. From Nov. 1 through the ACC championship game, Jennings proved to be one of the most explosive QBs in the country, accounting for more than 1,500 yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions, alongside an 81.4 Total QBR. — Hale


RB, Texas, junior
2024 stats: 226 carries, 1,064 yards, 44 receptions
2024
postseason ranking: NR

As the only returning 1,000-yard rusher in the SEC this season, Wisner is sacrificing his favorite meal — a 10-count McNuggets and McDouble from McDonald’s — to get in better shape. He’s a double threat for defenses after running for 1,064 yards with five touchdowns and catching 44 passes for 311 yards with one score in 2024. He had a career-high 186 yards in the Longhorns’ 17-7 victory against rival Texas A&M. — Schlabach


QB, Georgia Tech, senior
2024 stats: 25 TD, 2 INT, 2,701 yards
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Is there a tougher QB in the country than King? Georgia Tech fans certainly don’t think so. King played through a painful shoulder injury last season that kept him from throwing more than a few yards downfield at times, and yet he still led the Yellow Jackets to their second straight winning season. He’s the sixth Power QB in the playoff era to account for at least 25 touchdowns, fewer than five picks and complete at least 70% of his passes. The other five were all later selected in the first round of the NFL draft. — Hale


WR, Ohio State, senior
2024 stats: 733 yards, 4 TD, 52 receptions
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Even though Jeremiah Smith will understandably take up much attention this season, don’t sleep on Tate. The 6-3, 191-pound wideout from Chicago had a strong season inside of Ohio State’s title-winning offense last year, and even though Will Howard is gone, Tate should be able to build on his 2024 campaign. — Uggetti


OG, Texas A&M, senior
2024 stat: 1 sack allowed
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After playing four seasons at Kansas, Reed-Adams didn’t miss a beat after stepping into a starting role in Texas A&M’s offensive line. Pro Football Focus said Reed-Adams led all Power 4 guards in gap-blocking proficiency and was fourth in zone blocking. In 361 snaps in 2024, Reed-Adams surrendered only one sack and eight pressures, while helping the Aggies run for 195.5 yards per game, which was second best in the SEC. — Schlabach


TE, Vanderbilt, senior
2024 stats: 49 receptions, 638 yards, 5 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

A former four-star quarterback, Stowers signed with Texas A&M in 2021 but found himself as a tight end and utility man at New Mexico State in 2023, gaining 366 yards receiving, 108 rushing and 99 passing. He followed former head coach Jerry Kill to Vanderbilt in 2024 and became one of the SEC’s best tight ends, and with quarterback Pavia, he returns for one last dance in Nashville in 2025. — Connelly


S, Texas, senior
2024 stats: 40 solo tackles, 1 FF, 2 INT
2024
postseason ranking: NR

A former walk-on and a reigning second-team All-American, Taaffe has been a central figure in the Longhorns’ secondary over the past two seasons and returns in 2025 as one of most experienced defenders anywhere in the country. Taaffe finished second among Texas defenders with 78 total tackles a year ago, anchoring a dominant defensive back unit alongside NFL draft selections Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. With both gone this fall, Taaffe is set to lead a new-look secondary unit at Texas this fall. — Eli Lederman


OT, Boise State, junior
2024 stat: 2 sacks allowed
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The Broncos have a history of producing elite offensive linemen, and Casey should be the next in line after earning All-Mountain West honors in consecutive seasons. A gifted run blocker and pass protector, he led an offensive line that helped Ashton Jeanty rise to national prominence and protected quarterback Maddux Madsen. Boise State finished 12th nationally in fewest sacks allowed. — Rittenberg


LB, Ohio State, senior
2024 stats: 100 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 6 sacks
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The 6-4, 235-pound converted safety proved he’s one of the Big Ten’s best defensive playmakers in 2024, earning second-team all-conference honors as the leading tackler for the national champs, with big performances in some of the Buckeyes’ biggest games, including a career-high nine stops against Oregon, Penn State and Texas. He’s a 28-game starter and an invaluable leader with impressive traits and first-round pick potential. — Olson


CB, Texas, junior
2024 stats: 36 tackles, 1 TFL, 8 PD
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Muhammad has played in all 30 games since arriving at Texas as a heralded recruit in 2023. In Year 3, he’s working hard to produce more turnovers in the secondary. Texas and BYU led the FBS with 22 interceptions last season, but Muhammad didn’t have one (and has just one in two seasons combined). He helped the Longhorns limit Ohio State star Jeremiah Smith to only one catch in Texas’ 28-14 loss in a CFP semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Muhammad won’t have to wait long for another shot at the star receiver; the teams open the season against each other at the Horseshoe on Aug. 30. — Schlabach


LB, Old Dominion, senior
2024 stats: 2 solo tackles, 3 total tackles
2024
postseason ranking: NR

College football’s ultimate tackling machine, Henderson recorded a combined 324 tackles in 24 games in 2022-23. That’s an average of 162 tackles — only one other defender had even 160 in either season. After taking a medical redshirt last fall, the senior from Dingmans Ferry, Pennsylvania, returns to presumably load up on the hits again in 2025. — Connelly


LB, LSU, junior
2024 stats: 61 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

LSU is bringing Weeks back cautiously during preseason camp after he had surgery to repair a dislocated ankle he suffered against Baylor in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl. Weeks was second in the SEC with 125 tackles to go with 10 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in 2024. He’ll get to play with his older brother, West, and younger brother, Zach, who are also linebackers at LSU this season. The last time the Tigers had three brothers on a team was in 2008 with the Taylors (Curtis, Brandon, Jhyryn). — Schlabach


LB, Texas A&M, junior
2024 stats: 35 solo tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT
2024
postseason ranking: NR

A former three-star recruit who was ranked the 183rd-best prospect in Texas in the class of 2023 by ESPN Recruiting, York has proved to be much better than advertised in two seasons with the Aggies. Last season, he led the team with 82 tackles to go with 9.5 tackles for loss. According to Pro Football Focus, he leads Power 4 linebackers with 59 run-defense stops since 2023. — Schlabach


DL, Texas Tech, senior
2024 stats: 22 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 5 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The 6-3, 250-pound outside linebacker was a late addition to Texas Tech’s portal class after Stanford fired coach Troy Taylor. The California native brings a presence off the edge for the Red Raiders’ defense and experience with 16 starts in 33 career games. He will be an NFL draft prospect as a pass rusher. — Wilson


DL, Georgia, junior
2024 stats: 27 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After a couple of injury-plagued seasons, Miller finally showed flashes of the player he could be in 2024. He had five tackles, one pass breakup and one quarterback pressure in Georgia’s 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in a CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl. At 6-3, 310 pounds, the junior needs to be a difference-maker in the middle of the defensive front. — Schlabach


RB, Pittsburgh, senior
2024 stats: 966 rushing yards, 1,704 all-purpose yards, 10 TD
2024
postseason ranking: 94

One of the nation’s most versatile players, Reid dominated in his first season after transferring from FCS Western Carolina, igniting Pitt’s offense as a runner and pass catcher while adding a touchdown in the return game. He was one of only two Power 4 players last season to rack up 10 or more total touchdowns while scoring as a runner, receiver and returner. — Hale


DL, Alabama, senior
2024 stats: 17 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 1 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

It took Overton a little while to get started at Alabama after transferring from Texas A&M, and he’s looking to convert quarterback pressures into sacks in 2025. Last season, Overton had 39 quarterback pressures but only two sacks in 13 games. He also had 42 tackles, three tackles for loss and one forced fumble. The Tide hope the former five-star recruit was only scratching the surface as a pass rusher. — Schlabach


QB, TCU, junior
2024 stats: 3,949 yards, 27 TD, 73.9 QBR
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The 6-2, 200-pound junior was lightly recruited out of high school and eventually committed to Indiana before flipping to TCU, where he set a school record for passing yards last season. His 3,949 yards in 2024 ranks second among returners behind LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. He turned down big NIL offers from Tennessee, among others, to stay in Fort Worth. — Wilson


QB, Baylor, senior
2024 stats: 3,071 yards, 28 TD, 82.9 QBR
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Robertson became the starter in the Bears’ third game last season and had a breakout year, helping Baylor save its season during a six-game win streak to finish the regular season. The 6-4, 220-pound senior will enter the season for the first time as a starter and is expected to be one of the best QBs in a QB-heavy Big 12. — Wilson


LB, Ole Miss, junior
2024 stats: 32 solo tackles, 10.5 sacks, 1 INT
2024
postseason ranking: NR

After a bright freshman campaign in 2023, Perkins exploded last fall when the former five-star signee finished tied for the team lead in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (14.5) as part of a record-setting Rebels defensive line. In 2025, Perkins is one of only two returning starters within a heavily renovated Ole Miss defense. Without the likes of Walter Nolen III, JJ Pegues and Chris Paul Jr. alongside him, it’s his turn to spearhead a promising unit of front-seven talent this fall. — Lederman


QB, Navy, senior
2024 stats: 1,353 yards, 13 TD, 84.5 QBR
2024
postseason ranking: 84

Who’s the top returning college quarterback in terms of Total QBR? It’s not Cade Klubnik, Drew Allar or Carson Beck. It’s Blake Horvath, who finished sixth last season, piloting Navy’s evolving option offense to the tune of 1,353 passing yards, 1,298 non-sack rushing yards and 30 combined touchdowns. With most of his skill corps returning and a reasonably experienced line in front of him, he could produce similar numbers and lead a challenge in the American Conference in 2025. — Connelly


DL, Cincinnati, senior
2024 stats: 26 tackles, 5 TFL, and 3.5 sacks
2024
postseason ranking: NR

“The Godfather” is one of the best interior linemen in the country, a 6-1, 330-pound three-time all-conference selection who has played 34 games for the Bearcats, all while battling medical issues with blood clots that prevented him from practicing and didn’t allow him to play until Sept. 3 last year, when he had six tackles and a sack against Pitt. Now healthy, he’s primed for one final year. — Wilson


Edge, Boise State, junior
2024 stats: 10 sacks, 15.5 TFL
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty justifiably owned the spotlight for Boise State, but the team’s defensive line also stood out. Virgin-Morgan played opposite NFL sixth-round draft pick Ahmed Hassanein and led the team in both sacks (10) and quarterback hurries (7), while tying Hassanein for the top spot in tackles for loss (15.5). The first-team All-Mountain West selection enters his fourth season as one of the top Group of 5 players and among the nation’s top pass rushers. — Rittenberg


DL, Florida, senior
2024 stats: 10 solo tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The towering, 6-6, 330-pound interior defensive lineman has been a constant for the Gators since arriving from Louisville in 2023, tallying 21 starts at Florida over the past two seasons. Banks set career highs in tackles (21) and sacks (4.5) a year ago. In 2025, he returns to anchor a veteran defensive line within a promising Gators defense, carrying legit first-round NFL draft size and potential. — Lederman


WR, Clemson, junior
2024 stats: 75 catches, 904 receiving yards, 11 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Coming off a sophomore season lost to injury, Williams reenergized the Clemson passing attack while becoming one of the most reliable receivers in the country. His 75 catches ranked second in the ACC, and his 11 touchdowns tied for the conference lead. In the process, he became the first Clemson receiver with at least 75 catches, 900 yards and 10 touchdowns since Mike Williams in 2016. — Hale


RB, Louisville, sophomore
2024 stats: 1,173 yards, 11 TD, 7.1 yards per carry
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Brown emerged as one of the best backs in the country last season as a true freshman, winning ACC Rookie of the Year honors as a result. Not only did he set the school true freshman rushing record, but he also became the first true freshman to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Only one other running back last season averaged more yards per carry than Brown’s 7.1. — Andrea Adelson


S, Oregon, junior
2024 stats: 70 solo tackles, 6 PD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Purdue was a bad team the past two years but still produced several standout individual players, including Thieneman, who will suit up for a different Power 4 program this fall. He was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year and a third-team AP All-America selection in 2023, when he ranked third nationally with six interceptions and led the team with 106 tackles. Thieneman led Purdue and also all Big Ten defensive backs in tackles with 104 last season, to go along with four tackles for loss and seven pass breakups. — Rittenberg


LB, LSU, junior
2024 stats (four games played): 15 tackles, 5 solo tackles
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Perkins showed up as a freshman at LSU and blew everybody away with 13 tackles for loss, including 7.5 sacks. He shuffled between different positions in 2023 and then tore his ACL in Week 4 last season. Coach Brian Kelly said the Tigers plan to use the 6-1, 222-pound Perkins in more of a hybrid linebacker/safety role, freeing him up to make plays and go get the quarterback. — Chris Low


DB, Minnesota, sophomore
2024 stats: 28 solo tackles, 1 FF, 5 INT
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Perich is a bit under the radar at Minnesota but could be one of college football’s most exciting all-around players to watch, especially in the post-Travis Hunter era. He earned first-team All-Big Ten honors at defensive back, recording five interceptions to go along with a forced fumble and 46 tackles. Perich also was a second-team All-Big Ten return specialist with 314 kick return yards and 188 punt return yards. He will have an even bigger role on offense this fall. — Rittenberg


DB, Notre Dame, junior
2024 stats: 15 starts, 3 INT, 9 PD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Gray had a breakout season in 2024 in his first full season as a starter, and expectations are high headed into 2025. His interception with 33 seconds left against Penn State in the CFP semifinal set up the game-winning field goal, allowing the Irish to advance to the national title game. Perhaps there is a little bit of extra motivation going into the year, after he was on the coverage of the big passing play to Jeremiah Smith that allowed the Buckeyes to hoist the championship trophy. — Adelson


LB, Pitt, junior
2024 stats: 101 tackles, 4 INT, 15.5 TFL
2024
postseason ranking: 86

As dynamic a linebacker as there was in the country last season, Louis did a little of everything in leading the Pitt defense. Louis ranked fifth in the ACC in total tackles (100), fourth in tackles for loss (15.5) and third in interceptions (four) — the only Power 4 defender to hit each of those totals. To that, he added 7 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 9 QB hurries and a forced fumble. — Hale


CB, Clemson, junior
2024 stats: 45 solo tackles, 3 FF, 2 INT
2024
postseason ranking: NR

The stat line for Terrell almost feels as if it is never ending. In 2024, Terrell became the first player under Dabo Swinney to have at least three forced fumbles, multiple interceptions and multiple fumble recoveries in one season. His 13 pass breakups tied the Clemson sophomore record held by two others and were the most by any Clemson player since 2014. He is poised for more this year. — Adelson


LB, Georgia, junior
2024 stats: 76 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 INT
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Overshadowed by inside linebackers Jalon Walker and Smael Mondon Jr. the past two seasons, it’s time for Allen to take charge of Georgia’s defense. In 12 starts in 2024, he was second on the team with 76 tackles. He showed up big in the Bulldogs’ most important games with eight tackles and one interception in a 34-20 victory against Florida and seven tackles and two interceptions in a 22-19 win against Texas in the SEC championship game. — Schlabach


C, Florida, senior
2024 stats: 0 sacks allowed, 0.5% pressure percentage
2024 postseason ranking: 92

One of the most experienced members along a seasoned Florida offensive line (21 career starts), Slaughter sits at the heart of a pivotal unit for the Gators in 2025. The 6-5, 303-pound blocker earned first-team AP All-America honors a year ago in his first season as a full-time starter. In 2025, Slaughter is back as one of four returning starters on a Florida offensive line tasked with protecting second-year quarterback DJ Lagway and paving the way for reigning Freshman All-SEC running back Jadan Baugh. — Lederman


Edge, San Diego State, sophomore
2024 stats: 21.5 TFL, 12.5 sacks, 9 run stops
2024
postseason ranking: NR

White became a hometown star in 2024. After becoming the first underclassman in nearly 20 years to be voted team captain, he erupted for 21.5 tackles for loss with nine run stops and 12.5 sacks from 37 pressures. He didn’t have a lot of help around him, so opponents were able to run away from him late in the season. If a more experienced set of defensive teammates can help him out more, just imagine what he could produce. — Connelly


DE, Indiana, senior
2024 stats: 19 solo tackles, 10 sacks, 2 FF
2024 postseason ranking: 55

Kamara was part of the James Madison contingent that followed coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana and made an immediate impact during the team’s historic 2024 season. A second-team All-Sun Belt selection in 2023, he was a first-team All-Big Ten selection last fall and a third-team AP All-American after leading the FBS in total pressures (73) and finishing with 10 sacks and 15 tackles for loss for the nation’s No. 2 defense. — Rittenberg


RB, Penn State, senior
2024 stats: 220 carries, 1,108 yards, 8 TD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Allen forms half of arguably the best running back tandem in Penn State history, as he and Nicholas Singleton both have eclipsed 2,800 career yards. The 217-pound Allen had a career-high 1,108 rushing yards in 2024 to finish fifth in the Big Ten, logging four 100-yard games and remaining a factor in the passing attack with 18 receptions. He repeatedly gashed Oregon in the Big Ten championship game and averaged 7.9 yards per carry against Boise State in a CFP quarterfinal win at the Fiesta Bowl. — Rittenberg


DL, Miami, junior
2024 stats: 23 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Bain was limited last year with a leg injury he sustained in the season opener, and he worked tirelessly in the offseason to get back to full strength. Now, he’s hoping that pays off with a dominant performance up front with new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman leading the way. Bain has the potential to be one of the most dominant defensive ends in the country this season. — Adelson


DB, Duke, senior
2024 stats: 54 tackles, 3 INT, 8 PD
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Going into his third full season as the starter, Rivers is a preseason All-American after putting together an All-America season in 2024. One of the best cover cornerbacks in the country, Rivers plays well in coverage and can create pressure in different ways — compiling 7.5 tackles for loss, 3 pressures and 2 forced fumbles. In all, Rivers allowed 13 total completions last year — three that went for 20 yards or more. — Adelson


DB, Tennessee, junior
2024 stats: 26 tackles, 4 INT, 7 PD
2024
postseason ranking: 45

After transferring from Oregon State, McCoy established himself as one of the premier cornerbacks in the country last season. He served as the eraser on the back end of a Tennessee defense that held 10 of its 13 opponents under 20 points. The Vols aren’t sure when they will get McCoy back this season after he tore his ACL in January while training. — Low


RB, Oregon, junior
2024 stats: 1,401 yards, 15 TD, 0 fumbles lost
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Hughes takes over for Jordan James in the Oregon backfield after transferring from Tulane. Hughes rushed for 2,779 yards combined the past two seasons, more than any other returning back in college football. Hughes should bring a level of physicality to the Oregon offense; he broke 38 tackles last season, tied with North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton for fifth most in the nation. — Jake Trotter


QB, Miami, senior
2024 stats: 3,485 yards, 28 TD, 80.9 QBR
2024
postseason ranking: NR

Beck was rated one of the top quarterbacks in college football headed into last season, but he opted to transfer from Georgia to Miami for one final year after some inconsistency on the field then a season-ending elbow injury. He says he is 100 percent following surgery, but now it is time to show he is completely healthy — and that the roller coaster that was 2024 is in the past. — Adelson


WR, Arizona State, junior
2024 stats: 75 catches, 10 TD, 1,571 yards
2024 postseason ranking: 89

Tyson’s 2024 breakout season cemented him as one of the nation’s premier receivers. He earned Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year honors, hauled in 75 passes for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns, and posted five 100-yard games. All of that took place during the regular season, as Tyson missed the Big 12 championship game and the CFP quarterfinal game because of injury. — Bonagura


LB, Alabama, senior
2024 stats: 36 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 1 FF
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Had he not torn an ACL in the second to last game against Oklahoma in 2024, Lawson likely would have turned pro. But after undergoing surgery and rehab, Lawson is back for his redshirt senior season, and he gives the Crimson Tide the kind of enforcer at middle linebacker who could take them to another level defensively. Lawson is one of the surest tacklers in college football. — Low


DE, Penn State, senior
2024 stats: 24 solo tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 FF
2024 postseason ranking: NR

The impending departure of Abdul Carter to the NFL seemingly became easier for Penn State during its College Football Playoff run as Dennis-Sutton played his best football under the biggest spotlight. Penn State’s other defensive end had 4.5 sacks in the CFP and added an interception and a forced fumble in a semifinal loss to Notre Dame at the Orange Bowl. Dennis-Sutton recorded 6.5 of his 8.5 sacks in Penn State’s final seven games, and he should shine in new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ aggressive scheme. — Rittenberg


QB, Florida, sophomore
2024 stats: 1,915 yards, 12 TD, 57.9 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: NR

The only question with Lagway is how healthy he will be. He was limited by an injury to his throwing shoulder in the spring then by a calf strain this preseason. When he is 100 percent, Lagway’s ceiling is as high as any quarterback in the country. He posted a 6-1 record in seven starts last season as a true freshman, and he has terrific awareness as both a passer and a runner. — Low


OL, Miami, junior
2024 stats: 0.6% blown block percentage, 0 sacks allowed
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Mauigoa has been a force on Miami’s offensive line since the moment he arrived as a true freshman, but this could be his defining season. Miami is poised to have one of the best O-lines in the country with Mauigoa at the forefront, as the Hurricanes hope their ground game can help lead the way for Beck and the offense. — Adelson


QB, Texas, sophomore
2024 stats: 939 yards, 9 TD, 87.5 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: NR

The wait is over. In his third year at Texas, Manning gets the keys to the Longhorns’ offense as the full-time starter. He played situationally last season and filled in when Quinn Ewers was injured. The Horns plan to use Manning’s strength in both passing and running. The 6-4, 219-pound Manning has thrown 95 passes across his first two seasons, with 90 of those coming in 2024. — Low


OLB, Illinois, senior
2024 stats: 74 tackles, 3 FF, 12.1% defensive pressure rate
2024 postseason ranking: NR

A third-team All-Big Ten selection last season, Jacas is entering his fourth campaign as a starter for the Fighting Illini. Jacas led Illinois in 2024 with 13 tackles for loss, 8 sacks and 10 quarterback hurries. He also forced fumbles in wins over Michigan, Nebraska and Central Michigan, as the Illini won 10 games for the first time since 2001. — Trotter


QB, Arizona State, sophomore
2024 stats: 2,885 yards, 24 TD, 80.0 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: 58

During his first year in Tempe, Leavitt had arguably the best freshman season in school history, setting the freshman record for total offense (3,328) while guiding the Sun Devils to the College Football Playoff. He was effective as a passer (2,885 yards). But his additional ability to make plays on the run (443 yards) is what sets him up to be one of the best quarterbacks in college football in 2025. — Bonagura


DE, Oregon, junior
2024 stats: 38 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 2 FF
2024 postseason ranking: 81

Uiagalelei was an All-Big Ten selection as a sophomore, his first season as a starter for the Ducks, as he led the league during the regular season with 10.5 sacks. The Ducks lost several key players off last season’s defense, including tackle Derrick Harmon, a first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers. But Uiagalelei is a big reason the Ducks could be just as disruptive up front after ranking third in the Big Ten with 40 sacks in 2024. — Trotter


QB, South Carolina, sophomore
2024 stats: 2,534 yards, 18 TD, 69.8 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: 65

Sellers was one of the breakout stars in college football in 2024 as a redshirt freshman, and his impressive close to the campaign mirrored that of the Gamecocks, who won six in a row to conclude the regular season. The 6-3, 240-pound Sellers is a Cam Newton clone and impossible to get on the ground when he starts scrambling. Look for Sellers to be a more polished passer in 2025. — Low


DE, Auburn, junior
2024 stats: 30 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 1 FF
2024 postseason ranking: NR

As one of the most talented defensive linemen in the SEC, the 6-6, 285-pound Faulk returns for his junior season after tying for the Tigers’ lead with seven sacks in 2024. Faulk is a lot more than a pass rusher. His size, power and explosiveness make him equally strong against the run. — Low


QB, Penn State, senior
2024 stats: 3,327 yards, 24 TD, 77.5 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: 63

Allar went 23-6 as a starter over the past two seasons, including two victories in last year’s playoff. Penn State’s postseason run ended after he threw a late pick, allowing Notre Dame to kick a game-winning field goal and advance to the national title game instead. Despite that sour finish, Allar’s numbers improved across the board in 2024, and he enters this season with the fifth-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy, according to ESPN BET. — Trotter


QB, Oklahoma, junior
2024 stats: 3,139 yards, 29 TD, 70.9 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: 38

Mateer was one of the top quarterback targets in the transfer portal this offseason after making a name for himself at Washington State, and Oklahoma was giddy to get him after ranking 94th nationally in scoring offense last season at 24 points per game. Mateer is a playmaker both as a passer and a runner, and his former offensive coordinator at WSU, Ben Arbuckle, made the move with him to OU. — Low


RB, Penn State, senior
2024 stats: 1,099 rushing yards, 6.4 yards per carry, 17 TD
2024 postseason ranking: 80

Singleton teams up with Kaytron Allen to give Penn State perhaps the best running back duo in the country. Last season, Singleton and Allen were one of just two Power 4 tandems to each run for 1,000 yards, joining Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Singleton also is an effective pass catcher out of the backfield, snagging 41 passes last season for 375 yards and five touchdowns. — Trotter


OT, Alabama, junior
2024 stats: 639 snaps, 54 knockdown blocks
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Alabama’s offensive line is poised to be one of the strengths of the team, and Proctor’s return at left tackle is a big reason. Speaking of big, Proctor is 6-7 and 366 pounds. He has steadily improved since his true freshman season in 2023 and enters his junior season as one of the most physically imposing tackles in college football. — Low


CB, Notre Dame, sophomore
2024 stats: 34 solo tackles, 2 INT, 11 PD
2024 postseason ranking: NR

As a true freshman in 2024, Moore opened the season as a question mark at the back end of Notre Dame’s defense. He ended it as perhaps the most dominant corner in the country. Moore allowed just 39% completions on 51 targets, picking off two balls and breaking up 11 more. In the playoff alone, he allowed just 58 total yards while breaking up four passes. — Hale


WR, Alabama, sophomore
2024 stats: 48 receptions, 865 yards, 8 TD
2024 postseason ranking: 71

Williams cooled off a bit toward the end of last season after a torrid start to his true freshman year at Alabama, but he still proved to be one of the most explosive players in the nation. He had five touchdown receptions in the first four games, including the game winner against Georgia. Williams is as dangerous on deep passes as he is in making things happen after the catch. — Low


DE, Texas, sophomore
2024 stats: 31 solo tackles, 9 sacks, 3 FF
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Simmons had a sensational true freshman campaign and led the Longhorns with nine sacks. A dynamic edge rusher, the 6-3, 240-pound Simmons has the speed and strength to blow past opposing offensive tackles. Texas coaches expect him to take an even bigger leap during his sophomore year after winning the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award in his debut season on the Forty Acres. — Low


DE, South Carolina, sophomore
2024 stats: 17 solo tackles, 6.5 sacks, 3 FF
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Stewart burst onto the scene last season as one of the best true freshmen in college football and immediately asserted himself as one of the most feared pass rushers in the SEC. The 6-5, 245-pound Stewart earned Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) Freshman All-America honors, and he has all the skills to be a first-team All-American in 2025 as an even more complete defender. — Low


DL, Clemson, junior
2024 stats: 32 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 sacks
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Woods alternated between defensive tackle and defensive end last season, and what is so intriguing about his potential headed into his junior year is what new coordinator Tom Allen will ask him to do. Clemson plans to be more aggressive with its entire D-line, a prospect that Woods has embraced. — Adelson


QB, LSU, junior
2024 stats: 4,052 yards, 29 TD, 80.0 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: NR

The SEC’s leading returning passer after throwing for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2024, Nussmeier enters his second season as LSU’s starter after waiting his turn during his first three years on campus. Nussmeier will have a deep corps of receivers to throw to, including newcomers Nic Anderson and Barion Brown, although the Tigers are replacing both tackles. — Low


OL, Utah, junior
2024 stats: one sack allowed, 1.6% blown block percentage
2024 postseason ranking: NR

Fano anchored Utah’s offensive line in 2024, starting all 12 games at right tackle and earning All-America honors from PFF (first team), AP (second team) and Walter Camp (second team). A finalist for the Polynesian College Football Player of the Year Award, Fano combines elite pass protection with physical run blocking. — Bonagura


DL, Clemson, junior
2024 stats: 64 tackles, 19.5 TFL, 11 sacks, 6 FF
2024 postseason ranking: 46

Parker showed his potential as a freshman All-American and followed that up with a dominant sophomore season. His six forced fumbles set a school record, and his 19.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks were the most at Clemson since Clelin Ferrell had 19.5 and 11.5 in 2018. — Adelson


RB, Notre Dame, junior
2024 stats: 1,125 yards, 19 TD, 6.9 yards per carry
2024 postseason ranking: 27

Love shouldered the rushing load last season, scoring a touchdown on the ground in 13 straight games and setting a CFP record with a 98-yard touchdown run in a first-round game against Indiana. He played through injuries for most of the playoff run, so a healthy Love in 2025 could set up the Irish for more postseason success. — Adelson


QB, Clemson, senior
2024 stats: 3,639 yards, 36 TD, 78.7 QBR
2024 postseason ranking: 53

Headed into his third year as a starter, Klubnik is poised to have his best campaign yet after posting career numbers in 2024. His return is one of the biggest reasons many believe the Tigers are poised to make a championship run. Klubnik also knows it is now or never for him to cement his Clemson legacy — and add this offense to the record books. — Adelson


S, Ohio State, junior
2024 stats: 81 tackles, 2 INT, 6 PD
2024 postseason ranking: 18

Downs was a major reason the Buckeyes featured the top defense in the country in 2024. Playing shallow safety, he locked up the middle of the field for Ohio State, which didn’t allow more than 23 points the rest of the way after giving up 32 in an Oct. 12 loss at Oregon. Downs, also an electric returner, took a punt 79 yards for a touchdown in a key late-season win over Indiana. There isn’t a more accomplished defensive player in college football entering this campaign. — Trotter


LB, Texas, junior
2024 stats: 59 solo tackles, 16.5 TFL, 8 sacks, 4 FF
2024 postseason ranking: 30

The 6-3, 238-pound Hill has been a starter since his true freshman season. Now a junior, he has developed into one of the most well-rounded defenders in college football. He led the Longhorns last season with 113 total tackles and was fourth among FBS linebackers with 16.5 tackles for loss. Hill was a first-team ESPN All-America selection last season, and he returns to spearhead Texas’ defense. — Low


WR, Ohio State, sophomore
2024 stats: 76 receptions, 1,315 yards, 16 TD
2024 postseason ranking: 5

Arguably the best player in college football, Smith broke the Big Ten freshman record with 1,315 receiving yards during Ohio State’s 2024 national championship campaign. He also totaled five touchdowns in the Buckeyes’ four playoff outings. With a season of experience behind him, Smith said he expects to play even faster this year. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the Big Ten. — Trotter

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Judging the MLB playoffs: The team to beat, who has the vibes to stop them, and this October’s top ace

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Judging the MLB playoffs: The team to beat, who has the vibes to stop them, and this October's top ace

What an incredible first two weeks of the 2025 MLB playoffs we’ve had. There was the instant classic 15-inning Game 5 of the American League Division Series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, sending Seattle to its first American League Championship Series since 2001. We saw the Philadelphia Phillies be eliminated by the Los Angeles Dodgers on a bases-loaded error in the 11th inning. We watched the Toronto Blue Jays stomp past the New York Yankees with a barrage of scoring.

Now, we’re in the early stages of the league championship series and down to the final four teams: one team that is trying to make history with back-to-back titles, two teams trying to win their first title and one team trying to bring back its glory days of the early 1990s.

The Mariners surprised everyone by going into Toronto and winning the first two games. The Dodgers held on to a slim lead to take Game 1 in Milwaukee. Let’s take stock of October so far with an edition of Real or Not, looking at storylines on the teams still alive and those that have been eliminated.

Teams that are still in it

The Dodgers are the team to beat … again

Verdict: Real

Look. They’re the defending champs. They have a rotation of All-Stars. They have Shohei Ohtani. They seem to have found a closer in Roki Sasaki. They are the favorite to win it all. Just listen to a few statements Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy made Sunday:

“The Dodgers are a powerhouse, what can you say?”

“I happen to think that Mookie Betts is one of the most underrated stars — I say ‘underrated,’ that’s kind of crazy, right? But I don’t think Mookie Betts gets the credit.”

“Freddie Freeman is like my favorite person, player in the game. He’s ruined Brewers history many times, but I still love him.”

“My impressions as a pitcher is that [Ohtani is] unbelievable. The game I saw him pitch the other day was, like, uh, a split-finger from the top of the zone all the way to the bottom. Amazing.”

“The other kid is pretty good, the lefty. What’s his name? Shell? [Blake] Snell. I’m joking, of course. I’ve been very disappointed when he’s pitched and I’m in the stadium. He’s really good.”

“And [Tyler] Glasnow is really good. And [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto is really good. The guy at the end — who is the guy at the end throwing 100 with a split? That shouldn’t be fair. We’re going to try to petition the league and see if we can get him suspended for something.”

So, yes, the Dodgers are the favorite. But no team has repeated since the Yankees in 2000. It won’t be easy.


The Blue Jays’ ability to put the ball in play makes them the biggest threat to L.A.’s throne

Verdict: Not Real

The Blue Jays did have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors this season at 17.3% and are coming off a dominant offensive division series against the Yankees. The Brewers, however, had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate and actually scored a few more runs than the Blue Jays this season. Keep in mind that Bo Bichette, one of Toronto’s best offensive players in the regular season, will sit out the ALCS because of a knee injury, and even if the Blue Jays advance without him and he can hit in the World Series, he last played a game on Sept. 6.

As the first game against the Mariners showed, it seems everyone was overreacting just a bit to the Yankees’ series, when the Blue Jays hit .338. I mean, utility infielder Ernie Clement hit .643! That’s not going to continue all October.

That said, team contact rate is a strong October indicator. Look at the leaguewide regular-season strikeout rates (and rankings) of recent World Series winners:

2024 Dodgers: 11th (21.4%)
2023 Texas Rangers: 15th (22.5%)
2022 Houston Astros: second (19.5%)
2021 Atlanta Braves: 16th (22.7%, position players only)
2020 Dodgers: second (20.3%)
2019 Washington Nationals: third (19.8%, position players only)
2018 Boston Red Sox: fifth (19.8%)

Of course, pitching matters, and we’ll see how Toronto’s depth plays out, especially in the bullpen. Milwaukee’s pitching — with the creative and nontraditional ways Murphy deploys it, including in the bullpen — is better than Toronto’s. Let’s call the Blue Jays and Brewers co-upset favorites. Strikeout rate does project as a problem for the Mariners, who ranked 24th in the majors at 23.3%. The Dodgers? They were 12th at 21.9%, so about the same as last season.


Verdict: Real?

Through the division series, it certainly looked as if it was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who hit .529/.550/1.059 with three home runs and nine RBIs in four games against the Yankees. Guerrero is exactly what you want for an October lineup anchor: a hitter who hits for a high average with power, an excellent contact rate (he finished 19th in highest contact rate among qualified hitters) and a low chase rate (90th percentile).

But after the Mariners won the first two games in Toronto, a new potential star is brewing thanks to the clutch hitting of Polanco. Check out his big moments so far:

• Hit two home runs off Tarik Skubal in Game 2 of the ALDS, the only runs off Skubal, in a game the Mariners eventually won 3-2.

• Walked and scored the tying run in the seventh inning of Game 5 of the ALDS — and delivered the series-winning walk-off hit in the 15th.

• Delivered the go-ahead, two-out single in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the ALCS and then another RBI single in the eighth in Seattle’s 3-1 victory.

• Went 2-for-5 with two runs and the go-ahead three-run home run in Seattle’s Game 2 win.

Polanco is the first player in MLB history to have a go-ahead hit in the fifth inning or later of three consecutive playoff games. His overall line doesn’t scream domination — .258/.303/.548, three home runs, eight RBIs — but he has been in the middle of the key moments for the Mariners so far as they sit two wins away from their first World Series appearance.

Others off to hot starts:

Guerrero: .375/.429/.750, 3 HR, 9 RBIs

Cal Raleigh: .357/.471/.607, 2 HR, 5 RBIs
Clement: .476/.478/.667, 1 HR, 5 RBIs
Jackson Chourio: .333/.348/.571, 1 HR, 7 RBIs
Teoscar Hernandez: .276/.323/.621, 3 HR, 9 RBIs

And if you want an October MVP sleeper: Roki Sasaki, who’s doing his best Mariano Rivera impersonation (at least until his shaky performance in Game 1 against the Brewers, in which Blake Treinen had to rescue him to get the final out after Sasaki gave up two walks and one run). The Dodgers entered the postseason with no idea who their closer would be — and Sasaki has stepped up. Check out his first four appearances:

Oct. 1 vs. Cincinnati Reds: Closed out an 8-4 win with a two-strikeout ninth.

Oct. 4 at Phillies: Closed out a 5-3 win.

Oct. 6 at Phillies: After the rest of the pen nearly blew it, he got the final out in a 4-3 win.

Oct. 9 vs. Phillies: Pitched three perfect innings in the Dodgers’ 11-inning, 2-1 win to eliminate Philly.


We’re about to witness Shohei Ohtani‘s October breakout

Verdict: Not Real

I could be wrong — you should never bet against Ohtani. Of course, he already has made his pitching breakout, beating the Phillies with six solid innings (three runs, nine strikeouts). He did homer twice in the wild-card opener against the Reds but then went 1-for-18 against the Phillies with nine strikeouts. Granted, he faced three of the toughest lefties in the game in that series — but remember, he was only so-so last postseason (by his own impossible standards), hitting .230/.373/.393. As hard as he pushes himself all season, and now that he’s also pitching again, it’s a lot to ask of him to keep crushing baseball at this regular-season rate.

Consider this nugget of information as well: Ohtani ranked second overall in the majors in OPS in the regular season (1.014); but against pitches of 97 mph or faster, he drops to 21st in OPS (.889). That’s still awesome. Just not quite as awesome. The Brewers have four pitchers who average 97-plus with their fastballs in Jacob Misiorowski, Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby, plus Jared Koenig (averages 96, touches 99), Nick Mears (averages 95.4, touches 98) and Freddy Peralta (averages 94.8, touches 97-98). Two of those are lefty relievers — Ashby and Koenig — and they’re going to face Ohtani a lot in this series. Ohtani knows what he’s going to get. Let ‘er rip (on both sides).


The Mariners’ vibes are enough to power them through October

Verdict: Real

Well, vibes don’t necessarily win games, but home runs, good starting pitching and strong bullpens do. Sunday’s game was unbelievably huge for Seattle, as the Mariners were coming off that exhausting 15-inning game to beat Detroit, flying from Seattle to Toronto, having to use their No. 5 starter Bryce Miller, who had a 5.68 ERA in the regular season, against Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman — and winning.

It was interesting that Toronto manager John Schneider pulled Gausman after a two-out walk to Julio Rodriguez (which came after the Cal Raleigh home run that tied the score), despite Gausman having thrown only 76 pitches. Rodriguez then scored on a wild pitch and Jorge Polanco ‘s go-ahead single. Miller, meanwhile, also issued a two-out walk in the bottom of the sixth, but Seattle manager Dan Wilson left him in and he got the final out of the inning. The bullpen then finished it off with three hitless innings over only 24 pitches.

Game 2 hinged on another critical Schneider decision when he elected to intentionally walk Raleigh with no outs after Randy Arozarena led off the fifth by reaching second base on an infield single and throwing error. A no-out intentional walk increases the potential for a big inning and that’s exactly what happened. Schneider pulled Trey Yesavage and brought in Louis Varland, who struck out Rodriguez but then got taken deep by Polanco, who blasted that three-run home run to make it 6-3.

That’s certainly one way to create good vibes.

Look, the Mariners strike out a lot. Even in the Game 1 victory against the Blue Jays, they fanned 11 times compared to only four for Toronto. They struck out 20 times in the 15-inning win against the Tigers. Eugenio Suarez is 4-for-29 in the postseason with 12 strikeouts. Rodriguez is 6-for-29 with 13 strikeouts. Maybe the strikeouts will eventually end up as the Mariners’ fatal flaw. So far, their pitching and power has carried them. But keep in mind that they scored only 32 fewer runs than the Blue Jays in the regular season, despite playing at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. If they stay hot at the plate the way they were in Game 2, they can power their way into the World Series.


Blake Snell looks like The Man on the mound this postseason

Verdict: Real

Some years, the postseason is all about the bullpens. And some years, we get a red-hot starter who delivers all October, like these pitchers from past World Series-winning teams:

2023: Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (5-0, 2.95 ERA)
2022: Framber Valdez, Astros (3-0, 1.44 ERA)
2019: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (5-0, 1.98 ERA)
2017: Justin Verlander, Astros (4-1, 2.21 ERA)
2014: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (4-1, 1.03 ERA, one big save)

This might be Snell’s October to remember. Against the Reds in the wild-card round, he gave up two runs in seven innings, taking a shutout into the seventh. Against the Phillies he picked up another win with six scoreless innings in a duel against Cristopher Sanchez. Then, Snell delivered maybe the best starting pitcher performance this decade with his brilliant one-hit, 10-strikeout game over eight innings to beat the Brewers and run his record to 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in the postseason.

Snell made only 11 starts in the regular season, sitting out four months, and L.A. manager Dave Roberts said before Game 1 that the Dodgers probably did slow-play Snell’s return to have him ready for October.

“Could he have probably pitched earlier? Possibly,” Roberts said. “But when you’re talking about that kind of arm, the term of the contract, the shorter term, the season, making sure that he is raring to go for the postseason, through the postseason. So that was certainly part of the math.”

For Snell, he’s determined to keep pitching deeper into games. Before this year, he had made 10 career postseason starts and never completed six innings.

“I think it’s just mindset,” said Snell, who was notoriously unhappy with Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash pulling him in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series after 73 pitches with a 1-0 lead, only to see the Rays lose the game. “As you get older, you learn a lot more, you understand pitching, you understand how important belief is. And you just get better just with age and understanding the game and situations and what pressure really is and how awesome these moments are.”

Teams that have been eliminated

The Phillies will look vastly different when we see them next

Verdict: Not Real

After the tough four-game loss to the Dodgers, the discussion was how this might be the end of an era for the Phillies. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez — all key members of the core group that has made four consecutive playoff appearances and remained remarkably intact — are all free agents after this season, as is Max Kepler and perhaps Harrison Bader (he has a $10 million mutual option). Six of the regular position players are older than 30. And, quite simply, this group hasn’t gotten it done in the postseason the past three years, especially at the plate.

Thus: Blow it all up! Or at least some of it. But I just don’t see it. This was a 96-win team, and it’s certainly not in the DNA of owner John Middleton and top executive Dave Dombrowski to do anything except keep pushing for a World Series title. Most people in baseball can’t see the Phillies letting Schwarber leave, although there will obviously be interest in him coming off a 56-home run season (the New York Mets, no doubt, are a potentially interested party). Realmuto is a risky signing as he turns 35, but the Phillies don’t have a good alternative at catcher. Suarez is probably the one most likely to leave, just because of the demand for pitchers in free agency.

If there are changes, it might be with Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm. Stott has hit .179 with four RBIs in his past 17 postseason games. In his 38-game postseason career, Bohm has hit .225 with only two home runs and 14 RBIs — often hitting third or fourth in the lineup. The Phillies would probably like to move on from Nick Castellanos, who will make $20 million in the final year of his contract, but there won’t be any trade interest in a player coming off a minus-1.0 WAR season. So, different? Maybe a bit. Vastly different? Probably not.


Having a true ace no longer guarantees October success

Verdict: Real

Tarik Skubal? Gone. Garrett Crochet? Gone. Cristopher Sanchez? Gone. Those three ranked first (Sanchez), third (Skubal) and fourth (Crochet) in Baseball-Reference WAR among pitchers (Paul Skenes, whose Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t make the playoffs, was second).

Look, all three pitched great in October. Skubal gave up four runs in three starts and struck out 36 batters in 20⅔ innings; the Tigers lost two of those games anyway. Crochet won his start in the wild-card series, but the Boston Red Sox lost the other two games to the Yankees. Sanchez gave up three runs over two starts against the Dodgers, but the Phillies lost both after he departed.

Though the aces weren’t to blame — you still need your offense to score runs — their inability to pitch deeper into games played a role here as managers are increasingly likely to pull their starter before 100 pitches, even if he’s one of the best starters in baseball. In his Game 5 start against Seattle, Skubal was pulled after six innings and 99 pitches. The Mariners tied the score in the seventh. In his first start against the Dodgers, Sanchez couldn’t quite make it through the sixth inning, giving up two runs and leaving after 94 pitches with a lead, but the Dodgers beat the Phillies’ bullpen. Perhaps it’s instructive that the Red Sox won Crochet’s start 3-1, in part because he threw 117 pitches and left only four outs to the bullpen.

Aces are still enormously valuable. But they’re less valuable than they used to be if they’re only throwing six innings and 90-something pitches.


Aaron Judge finally silenced his October critics — for good

Verdict: Not Real

Judge had a terrific postseason, hitting .500/.581/.692 with seven RBIs in seven games. His .500 average was the third highest in a single postseason (minimum 30 plate appearances) and his 253 wRC+ is in the top 15.

But silence his critics? Nope. This is New York and — fair or not — until Judge helps lift the Yankees to a World Series championship, he’ll face the pressure of expectations every October in which he plays. Consider Ted Williams. He played in one World Series, hit .200 with one RBI and spent the rest of his career with the reputation that he wasn’t clutch. Consider Barry Bonds. He was terrible in three NLCS with the Pirates early in his career, and even after one of the greatest postseasons of all time in 2002 (.356, eight home runs, 1.556 OPS), critics will point out that he wasn’t clutch in the playoffs and never won a ring.

That’s the burden Judge has to carry as one of the greatest hitters of all time.


This was the San Diego Padres‘ last best shot at a deep postseason run

Verdict: Real

Never say never, but the future path to continued success for the Padres is littered with mega-contract-sized potholes. First, in the immediate future, they’ll have to address their starting rotation with Michael King, Dylan Cease and Nestor Cortes heading to free agency. The problem: The farm system is weak and the payroll more bloated than two servings of the “Cardiff crack” nachos at Petco Park.

Next up, the contracts: Manny Machado made $17.1 million this season but his salary jumps up to $39 million in 2027 — and his contract runs through 2033; Xander Bogaerts, at $25 million a year and coming off an 11-homer season, is signed through 2033; Fernando Tatis Jr.’s salary eventually jumps from $20.7 million in 2025 to $35.7 million in 2029. Joe Musgrove (two more seasons) and Yu Darvish (three more) are still under contract. The Padres are getting older and more expensive. Maybe they’ll try to stretch it one more year behind their bullpen, but the bottom here — when it arrives — might not be pretty.


The state of Ohio had two playoff teams — two more than it’ll have in 2026

Verdict: Not Real

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off their shocking 88-win division title and the Reds won 83 and made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013. It’s easy to dismiss both team’s chances in 2026: Cleveland had trouble scoring runs all season and Cincinnati didn’t exactly roll out the Big Red Machine on offense. The Guardians have the advantage of playing in the AL Central, where no team except Cleveland in the past four seasons has won more than 87 games (the Guardians have done it three times). Both teams will enter 2026 relying again on run prevention while lacking the committed owners needed to invest in some upgrades on offense.

I would still put the odds of at least one of them making the playoffs next season at better than 50% and I especially like where the Reds sit with their rotation. With Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, they finished third in FanGraphs WAR among starting rotations. But then they have two big arms to add in 2026: Chase Burns, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft who debuted with the Reds this season and struck out 67 batters in 43 innings; and Rhett Lowder, the seventh pick in 2023 who debuted with the Reds in 2024 but sat out much of 2025 because of a forearm strain and then an oblique strain.

With Nick Martinez headed to free agency after making $21 million in 2025, the Reds can invest that money in some offense. Sal Stewart, who looked good in 18 late-season games with the Reds, has a chance to be an impact rookie, either at third base or first. Noelvi Marte‘s midseason transition to right field was pretty seamless, although his bat went away in September (.191, 32 strikeouts, three walks) after he hit well in July and August. They’ll certainly need more power production from Elly De La Cruz, who finished with 22 home runs after somehow hitting only one in a 74-game stretch over the summer.

Playing in the same division as the Brewers and Chicago Cubs isn’t an easy assignment, but if the young hitters can improve — of course, we’ve been saying that about Cincinnati for the past decade — to back up this rotation, the Reds can return to the postseason.

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Larsen-like Snell silences Brewers in Game 1 win

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Larsen-like Snell silences Brewers in Game 1 win

MILWAUKEE — Few teams have a lineage of great pitching as long as that of the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise. With this postseason, Blake Snell is making that star-studded line longer by one.

Snell dominated the Milwaukee Brewers over eight innings Monday, leading Los Angeles to a 2-1 Game 1 victory in the National League Championship Series before a packed house at American Family Field.

“That was just so good from the start,” said Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, whose sixth-inning homer broke a scoreless tie. “Sometimes it takes an inning or two for someone to settle in. [Tonight] it was from the get-go.”

Snell held Milwaukee to one hit in going a full eight innings for only the second time in a career that has netted him a pair of Cy Young Awards. He struck out 10 and picked off the only baserunner he allowed — Caleb Durbin, who singled in the third.

Snell became the first pitcher to face the minimum through eight innings in a postseason game since Don Larsen threw a perfect game in the 1956 World Series. The only longer outing in Snell’s career was the no-hitter he threw for the San Francisco Giants on Aug. 2, 2024. Has he ever felt as locked in as he did Monday?

“The no-hitter, yeah,” Snell quipped.

Snell improved to 3-0 in a postseason during which no other starting pitcher has recorded two wins. He is the second Dodgers pitcher to win his first three playoff starts for the franchise, joining Don Sutton (1974).

If Los Angeles keeps winning, Snell will get more chances to add to his numbers, but for now, his 0.86 ERA over three outings is the second best for a Dodgers left-hander in a postseason (minimum 20 innings), behind only Sandy Koufax’s legendary run (0.38 ERA over three starts) in the 1965 World Series.

This is the kind of company Snell knew he’d be keeping when he signed with the Dodgers before the season.

“Even playing against them, watching, it was just always in the back of my mind, like, I wanted to be a Dodger and play on that team,” Snell said. “To be here now, it’s a dream come true. I couldn’t wish for anything more.”

Snell’s gem continued the Dodgers’ stretch of dominant starting pitching that began over the last month of the regular season and has propelled a postseason run for the defending champs, positioning them for a repeat despite an offense that has at times struggled to put up runs in the playoffs.

Dodgers starters are 6-1 with a 1.65 ERA so far in the postseason, logging six quality starts in L.A.’s seven games.

“Our starting pitching for the last seven, eight weeks, has been — I don’t know if you can write enough words in your stories about our starting pitching,” Freeman said. “It really has been amazing. They seem to feed off each other.”

But no Dodgers’ starter is on a run quite like that of Snell, who is hoping to win his first championship ring with the team he lost to as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2020 World Series.

Despite Snell’s dominance, the Dodgers still had to withstand a ninth-inning push by the stubborn Brewers and understand the series is just getting started. Still, with the way Snell is rolling, he’s conjuring names of Dodgers present and past, like Koufax, Kershaw, Sutton, Valenzuela and Hershiser.

“I feel like the whole postseason I’ve been pretty locked in, pretty consistent,” Snell said. “Different outings, but eight innings, went deeper. The last three I felt really good, really locked in. Consistent. Similar.”

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in, who’s out, who has work to do at midseason

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who's in, who's out, who has work to do at midseason

Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor.

Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.

Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to-date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 passing and 200 rushing yards per game this season. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make a run in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.

Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: Tennessee

Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina


Big Ten

Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.

Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: USC

Work to do: Nebraska, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin


ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.

Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami

On the cusp: Georgia Tech

Work to do: Virginia

Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


Big 12

Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated, and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge at a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …

Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

On the cusp: BYU

Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah

Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia


Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.


Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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