College football 2025: How much does each position cost?
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Max Olson
The price tag for top college football talent has never been higher — but how high is it, really?
Schools had more money to spend this offseason entering the first year of revenue sharing with athletes. Power 4 programs ponied up to re-sign their returning players and combined to acquire more than 1,400 transfers via the portal. Players increasingly turned to agents to negotiate massive raises and maximize their value.
And yet, we still know too little about what college football players are actually earning. Agents share exaggerated sums in the interest of signing more clients. General managers downplay the numbers to avoid locker room issues. In the NFL, salary and contract data are easy to access. In this sport, without transparency, it’s an inefficient market with an incredibly wide spectrum of underpaid to overpaid players.
How much does a Power 4 starter cost at each position? To answer that question, ESPN surveyed more than 20 college general managers and agents. The goal was to better define the price ranges for each spot based on the deals completed for 2025 and what each side considers fair positional and market value.
To be clear, these price ranges do not reflect what everybody is making at the Power 4 level. There are million-dollar outliers with the elite players at most positions, and there are still good, young players earning less than $100,000. Talent retention is still more affordable than acquisition, so it’s the transfers who tend to reset the floor and ceiling. Agents say SEC and Big Ten programs continue to consistently outspend the ACC and Big 12, regardless of the revenue share cap.
After an unprecedented offseason of inflated spending raised the bar at every position, here’s what Power 4 players are now earning to start and compete at the highest level.
Jump to a position:
QB | RB | WR | TE | OL
Edge | DT | LB | DB
Quarterback: $1 million-$2 million
The going rate for good quarterback play quickly surpassed $1 million by the end of November as Power 4 programs re-negotiated deals with their starters to ensure they’d return for 2025 and stay out of the transfer portal. Coaches and GMs anticipated that if they didn’t lock in a seven-figure deal with their QB1, signing a replacement in the portal would be even more expensive. They were right about that.
Several Power 4 schools paid $1.5 million for their transfer quarterbacks this offseason, sources told ESPN, and the highest-paid QBs in the sport will make well over $2 million this year. The top end of the market includes highly coveted transfers such as Miami’s Carson Beck, Duke’s Darian Mensah and Oklahoma’s John Mateer, as well as rising former five-star recruits such as Michigan’s Bryce Underwood and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola.
Keep in mind, though, that the elite young quarterbacks such as Texas’ Arch Manning and Florida’s DJ Lagway are still earning millions from major brand deals and don’t have to dip into their school’s revenue share or collective funds as much.
“The great ones are like $3 million,” one SEC GM said. “And if you don’t have one, it’s at least $1 million.” As one ACC director of player personnel (DPP) summed it up: “These dudes are getting paid paid.”
The coaching staffs who didn’t anticipate that or who suddenly needed a QB after theirs departed certainly experienced some sticker shock when the portal window opened in December.
“The numbers that were being thrown out there, I thought they were fake at first,” another ACC DPP said. “I was like, for that guy, $1.5 million to $2 million? What? And then I quickly found out that was just the market, that’s what was happening. So we had to step up to the plate and put our big-boy pants on and make a decision. It was certainly a real thing. Those are all real numbers, real money being paid out at that position.”
But when you combine a high number of departing seniors and heavy attrition at the position with programs having more to spend than ever before, it’s no wonder quarterback pay jumped to a seven-figure standard. Only 28 of the 68 programs in the Power 4 have a returning starter at QB entering Week 1.
Agents surveyed by ESPN agreed that Power 4 starters should be making between $1.5 and $2 million and that elite passers could be worth upward of $3 million to $4 million, though they noted there were a few instances this offseason where Power 4 programs managed to get their guy for closer to $800,000.
While Beck was able to leverage his NFL draft decision to maximize his value in the transfer portal, reps generally view the quarterback market as different from the rest. From their perspective, a QB is better off locking in the best situation and fit quickly during the portal window. Nico Iamaleava‘s post-spring exit from Tennessee also clearly demonstrated that the destinations and dollar figures on the table aren’t the same in April as they would’ve been back in January.
Running back: $300,000-$700,000
Good quarterbacks cost what they cost. Running back value is a totally different discussion, one that has been raging in the NFL in recent years. At the college level, staff opinions vary depending on where they are, what they run and who they have. As for the agents?
“I think anything below $750,000 for a starting running back at a serious program would be disrespectful, basically,” one agent argued.
Another agent pointed to Quinshon Judkins as proof that some teams will be willing to go up to seven figures for a top-tier No. 1 back. But Judkins’ move from Ole Miss to Ohio State last year looks more like a rare exception to the rule than a deal that resets the market at the position.
The opinions from recruiting staffers, including those at programs that shopped for portal running backs this offseason, were all over the place. One SEC GM said they’d expect a good Power 4 starting back to cost a minimum of $250,000. A DPP in the Big 12 said his program wouldn’t spend more than $300,000 on one. Others suspect the range is somewhere between $300,000 and $500,000. Most surveyed struggled with the idea of paying a back $500,000 or more unless he’s special.
“Anything more than that, I think you’re overvaluing the position, honestly,” an ACC DPP said.
A few top transfers such as Oklahoma’s Jaydn Ott and Texas Tech’s Quinten Joyner (who just went down with a season-ending knee injury) were able to maximize their value thanks to highly competitive portal recruitments. But other prized backs agreed to deals for less than $500,000, and several more who could’ve earned top dollar preferred to stay put.
“A lot of guys didn’t move,” one agent said. “The running back market, it was kind of weird.”
At Power 4 programs that had good supplies of returning rushers, the imminent revenue share cap forced some to make tough offseason decisions about who needed to get paid and who was expendable. The programs with major needs that had to sign two or more transfers were hunting for bargains this offseason.
Solid rotational backs aren’t cheap, either, with most agreeing they’re looking to be paid around $200,000. It’s no surprise we saw close to 50 Group of 5 and FCS running backs transfer this offseason to P4 schools hoping to get more affordable production.
Wide receiver: $400,000-$800,000
Personnel staffers and agents were fairly aligned when it came to how they perceived the wide receiver market. A true No. 1 receiver costs $700,000 or more and could be worth up to $1 million in some cases. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith is an extreme outlier, a generational talent worth so much more than $1 million.
“If you want a guy with any production, it started at $700,000 to $800,000,” one SEC GM said.
The next tier of wideouts, quality No. 2 and No. 3 receivers and starters, were typically valued at closer to the $300,000 to $500,000 range depending on their experience and production.
Year after year, more FBS wide receivers and defensive backs transfer than any other position group. There’s more than enough volume every offseason that programs can live out of the portal in recruiting and, therefore, don’t feel like they need to overspend on skill players.
This offseason, more than 500 FBS scholarship wide receivers entered their names in the transfer portal. Fewer than 200 of them were able to land at Power 4 programs.
“Receiver in the portal is such a saturated market,” one Big Ten GM argued. “Receivers are going to go in every year; that’s just the nature of the position. We always felt like you didn’t need to overpay. You can get an equal player who’s going to take $200,000 less.”
One ACC DPP acknowledged that he probably misjudged wide receiver value going into the December portal period after watching wideouts who made $150,000 to $175,000 last season earn so much more in the portal, including one who got away for more than $500,000.
Another Big Ten staffer said he believed starting wideouts who aren’t No. 1 receivers should be in the $250,000 to $400,000 range. But he paused to point out that blue-chip receiver recruits are now seeking serious paydays as well.
“Some of these freshmen are coming in and making more than your No. 2 receiver,” he said, “because the high school market is so inflated.”
Tight end: $200,000-$400,000
Some Power 4 programs were willing to go as high as $800,000 for all-conference caliber tight ends in the portal this offseason, sources told ESPN, but most aren’t spending anywhere close to that even on proven multi-year starters.
“I think $800,000 is insane,” an SEC GM argued. “That’s nuts.”
Several staffers surveyed said they were able to secure their top portal target for around $300,000 to $400,000. Others still believe that’s overvaluing the position and struggle to justify even going to $200,000. One agent said he was able to secure a $400,000 deal for a primarily blocking tight end whose previous school wouldn’t go any higher than $140,000.
“Tight end is so unique,” a Big 12 DPP said. “There’s just not a ton of them, and it’s very dependent on what they do. There are very few well-rounded tight ends out there.”
There is one player out there whom several GMs pointed to as the ultimate rare exception: Mark Bowman. The No. 26 overall recruit in the 2026 ESPN 300 from Mater Dei High School in California is committed to USC and is already evoking comparisons to Brock Bowers.
Bowman is expected to become one of the highest-paid tight ends in the country as a freshman next year with a seven-figure deal, sources told ESPN. Recruiting staffers see elite potential in the 6-foot-5, 225-pound pass catcher but were still blown away by his number, with one Big Ten staffer describing it as “astronomical.”
Bowman’s deal might not substantially raise the bar for his peers if coaches remain skeptical about spending on tight ends. But if he’s as impactful as Bowers was for Georgia as a Day 1 starter and the Trojans become CFP contenders, perhaps he’s worth every penny.
Offensive tackle: $500,000-$1 million
Offensive guard/center: $300,000-$700,000
Several GMs and DPPs acknowledged that the highest-paid position group on their roster for 2025 is their offensive line. If you had to reload with a bunch of new starters via the portal, the big men took up a big chunk of your roster budget.
Agents say recruiting battles for quality offensive tackles easily get up to $800,000 or $900,000 and can go all the way to $1.2 million or more for left tackles. GMs were more than willing to extend seven-figure offers for the best available tackles and quickly learned the starting point in conversations for starting tackles was no less than $500,000.
Nobody was more coveted than Nevada transfer Isaiah World, a projected first-round pick in ESPN’s early mock drafts for 2026. Sources told ESPN that World turned down a more than $2 million offer to sign with Oregon. Tackles with that kind of early-round potential rarely hit the open market, and it’s worth noting the highest bid might not always win out for pro prospects who are determined to maximize their potential and play for a title contender.
Interior offensive linemen were a little more affordable this offseason, and some staffers had success finding good bargains with guards and centers who had solid starting experience, but the highly competitive recruitments still crossed into the $600,000 to $700,000 range.
One fascinating element about offensive line recruiting in the transfer portal: Timing is everything. Teams that were able to lock up offensive linemen in early December likely got a good discount.
“No school that got the kid to sign early has ever overpaid,” one representative said. “The numbers only go up. The biggest mistake schools make is they wait on a kid they could’ve had for $300,000 and end up getting him for $600,000 — or they offer $600,000 and don’t get him.”
Once coveted targets start going off the board, desperation sets in for teams still dealing with serious needs. One agent said he’s seen Group of 5 linemen who might’ve been making $30,000 last year get offered close to $1 million to move up to the Power 4 level.
Notre Dame’s Rocco Spindler and Pat Coogan waiting until after the national championship game to enter the portal made them highly coveted as proven veteran starters. In one far more extreme instance, sources say a Power 4 team shelled out $1.5 million for an inexperienced tackle late in the winter portal window.
“Folks were desperate,” an ACC DPP said. “They thought the spring portal was going to be super dry.”
They’ve had to step up the pay for more than just their starting five. Multiple staffers said top reserves along the offense line are now expecting to make at least $200,000. All these factors drive home the point that programs ideally need to have success developing and retaining high school linemen if they hope to keep costs somewhat under control in this new era.
“The offensive line room is going to be the most expensive one everywhere,” one SEC GM reasoned, “because you have the most humans there and the acquisition cost is so high on every single one.”
Edge rushers: $500,000-$1 million
Much like in the NFL, college front offices view left tackles and pass rushers as the next-most-valuable positions behind quarterback.
“If it’s the right fit and a program that’s got some money,” an agent said, “they’ll pay $1 million for an edge.”
Texas Tech had an awful lot of money and was willing to make big-time spends here with Stanford’s David Bailey becoming one of the highest-paid defenders in college football at more than $2 million and Georgia Tech’s Romello Height earning more than $1 million this year, sources told ESPN.
For GMs and DPPs with portal needs, it quickly became clear that proven starters weren’t going for less than $500,000. A few staffers did tell ESPN they don’t have any edge defenders on their rosters making more than $500,000, and not everyone is willing to go as high as $1 million for a great one. But plenty were willing to cut big checks to get their guy.
One SEC GM said his school got turned down by an FCS transfer whom they’d offered $650,000. An agent said one of his defensive end clients had an ACC program come in late and triple his best offer to more than $700,000. Another GM said his program had to get up to $800,000 for the Group of 5 transfer they coveted.
“If you need a starter in the portal, good luck,” the SEC GM said.
Defensive tackles: $300,000-$800,000
Texas Tech was a big spender here, too, in its quest to assemble one of the best defensive lines in college football and made serious investments to land their top two targets, UCF’s Lee Hunter and Northern Illinois’ Skyler Gill-Howard.
The Red Raiders had a strategy with their December portal battles that proved incredibly effective: If they could get the right players on campus for an official visit, they’d pay whatever it took to shut down the recruitment. As one Big Ten GM politely put it, the sums Texas Tech was willing to spend “fudged up the market” at a few positions. Still, talented linemen with starting experience are rarely going to come cheap.
“The big guys are demanding the big premiums,” Texas Tech billionaire booster Cody Campbell told ESPN in February.
One agent who repped a top defensive tackle transfer said he fielded multiple $1 million offers, but the best long-term fit for his client ended up being a program that paid $800,000. Highly competitive recruitments could drive the price for a great defensive tackle up to $1 million, but several staffers surveyed agreed that a low-end Power 4 starter is probably worth closer to the $300,000 to $500,000 and were able to sign solid players in that price range.
“I’ve heard sometimes it can be even more expensive for defensive tackles than edges,” the Big Ten GM said, “because, just like the NFL, there are only so many humans that size that can move like that walking on planet Earth.”
Linebackers: $200,000-$500,000
This might be the position group with the greatest disparity in perception between agents and GMs. Multiple agents told ESPN they believed a good linebacker can fetch $500,000 to $700,000 with elite players going for as much as $1 million.
Front office staffers surveyed generally agreed that $300,000 to $500,000 was a more reasonable price range for quality starters. The easiest explanation for that gap might be the offseason portal cycle and the reality that few all-conference caliber linebackers hit the open market. In fact, only four linebackers made ESPN’s top 100 transfer rankings.
There weren’t many $500,000-plus linebackers in the portal, and some staffs intentionally spent less at this position by focusing their efforts on G5 or FCS transfers. One Big 12 school was able to land the top linebacker on its board, a veteran multi-year starter, for a mere $225,000.
“They were not going for an exorbitant amount of money,” an ACC GM said.
Schools might’ve been a little more willing to pay up to retain their returning starters, but bottom line, it comes down to how a staff values the position and how closely they’re trying to stick to a roster budget influenced by NFL standards.
“There are some linebackers starting at P4 schools who are on $200K deals and some who are making $600K, and I don’t think their talent is that big of a difference,” an agent said.
Cornerbacks: $300,000-$800,000
Safeties: $300,000-$700,000
Defensive back is always a high-volume position in the portal, with more than 650 FBS scholarship players transferring over the past year, and everybody plays a bunch of them. For those reasons, there’s plenty of room for debate around the cost of DBs.
Top-tier cornerbacks are still considered more valuable than safeties and are making at least $500,000 at the highest level. “There are so few really good ones,” an SEC GM argued. ACC and Big 12 programs have still been able to land starter corners on deals closer to the $300,000 to $400,000 range, but experience is expensive.
At safety, there were a few rare instances this offseason where all-conference-caliber players secured deals around $800,000, and some staffers suspect the top of the safety market actually ended up being just as expensive as the top of the corner market. One DPP at a program that paid more than $800,000 to re-sign their top safety justified it by pointing to the fact that there were several SEC programs interested in paying him even more.
“A couple guys were being shopped around for crazy amounts of money,” an ACC DPP said, “but I thought it was easier to find bargains at safety.”
This DPP’s coaching staff had a lot of work to do in the December portal window, and he had to quickly adjust to the rapid price inflation. As another staffer summed it up, everybody was suddenly a $200,000 to $300,000 player at every position.
“It didn’t matter what position you were talking to, if you came in at under $150,000 or $175,000, oh man, people take offense to that,” the ACC recruiter said. “They’d say, ‘All right, so you see me as a second- or third-team guy.’ Word was getting out. Agents were hip to the game. If they hear a number that starts with a one, that means depth chart.”
So they spent like they’ve never spent before. They did what they had to do to keep their returning players in the building and secure the recruits they coveted. We’re about to find out how many of these frenzied offseason spending sprees actually paid off and which players were truly worth every penny.
“You make some decisions you look back on like, ‘F— yeah,'” one Big Ten GM said. “You make some decisions you look back on where you’re like, ‘Damn it.’ That was the market, the market was telling me to pay him that much. But was he worth that? You’re going to have those. Every school in the country is looking at the same thing.”
One of the most anticipated weekends on the 2025 college football calendar is upon us.
The headliner comes Saturday night when No. 6 Oregon visits No. 3 Penn State. A potentially season-defining occasion, the clash of Big Ten powers, will test quarterbacks Drew Allar (Penn State) and Dante Moore (Oregon), Nittany Lions coach James Franklin and the Ducks’ backbone as they step into the hostile confines of Beaver Stadium in Week 5.
Elsewhere, eyes will fall on a trio of juicy SEC matchups: Alabama–Georgia, Auburn–Texas A&M and Ole Miss–LSU, all of which could hold significant implications for the conference title race and the College Football Playoff field.
Ahead of a series of high-level games, our college football reporters deliver their insights on keys to the weekend’s biggest matchups, five quarterbacks putting themselves on the map this fall and the best quotes so far from Week 5. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Alabama | Quarterbacks to know
Key conference matchups
Quotes of the Week
What does each team need to capitalize on to win?
Georgia: If the Bulldogs are going to defeat the Crimson Tide for only the second time in the past 11 meetings, they’ll have to avoid getting themselves in another big hole — and take advantage of playing Alabama at home for the first time in nearly 10 years.
In last season’s 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa, the Bulldogs trailed by three touchdowns before the end of the first quarter and by 28 points less than 18 minutes into the game. Georgia put together a furious rally in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight touchdowns to grab a 34-33 lead.
The Crimson Tide won on Jalen Milroe‘s 75-yard scoring pass to Ryan Williams with 2:18 to go.
Georgia had a similar slow start in its 44-41 victory in overtime at Tennessee on Sept. 13. The Volunteers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions to take a 21-7 lead, and the Bulldogs had to come from behind on the road. They were fortunate that Tennessee missed a 43-yard field goal attempt to take the lead near the end of regulation.
The Bulldogs didn’t do a good job of containing Milroe last season. He threw for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores, including several long runs to keep drives alive. New Tide quarterback Ty Simpson isn’t as fast as Milroe, but he also isn’t a statue standing in the pocket.
Williams burned Georgia’s secondary on some big plays last season, finishing with six catches for 177 yards. The Bulldogs had similar problems against Tennessee’s fast-paced offense, and they’ll have to shore up those mistakes and play better on the back end. Getting pressure on Simpson would also help; the Bulldogs had only four sacks in their first three games this season.
On offense, Georgia needs to do a better job of protecting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who took too many hits at Tennessee. The Bulldogs need to find more ways to get the ball into the hands of Zachariah Branch, and tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie also need to get their share of touches. Shoring up the right side of the offensive line, which has been a trouble spot, will allow them to be more involved in the passing game. — Mark Schlabach
Alabama: It has not been pretty for Alabama on the road under Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is 2-4 since he became head coach, including a 31-17 loss to Florida State to open the season. In that loss, the Crimson Tide looked lethargic at times and ended up being beaten up front on both sides of the ball. So to give themselves any chance against Georgia, their first road game since Week 1, they simply must play better on the offensive and defensive lines. Getting defensive lineman Tim Keenan III back from an ankle injury will be huge in that respect. Alabama has struggled to rush the passer without him, and has only four sacks on the season. Georgia has done a nice job using Gunner Stockton in the run game when needed, so slowing him down is also going to be key. That is also an area in which Alabama struggled against the Seminoles.
On the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said it would continue to rotate its starting offensive line unit to find the right combination. Getting Jam Miller back at running back is also is a big addition, not only because of his running ability but his presence as a pass blocker in the backfield. But more than anything, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said the team was eager to prove it has learned how to handle adversity in-game, something that cost it in the opener.
“There’s a difference when you have to go on the road, particularly in the SEC and in a hostile environment and respond to adversity,” Wommack said. “At times, we have been a team that has been reactionary to adversity, and we’ve got to be more responsive. It’s at the forefront of our minds, and I expect to see a very responsive football team on Saturday.” — Andrea Adelson
Five quarterbacks who are putting themselves on the map
Curt Cignetti found a gem via the transfer portal yet again. Mendoza was solid at Cal the past two years, but he was surrounded with little talent and playing in an offense that probably didn’t maximize his skill set. Turned loose at Indiana, he has looked like a genuine Heisman Trophy candidate, including a dominant five-touchdown performance in a win over Illinois. For the season, Mendoza has 14 touchdown passes without an interception.
When Castellanos talked smack about Alabama this summer, it became a national punchline. When he backed it up with a win over the Tide in Week 1, he had the last laugh. Through three games, Castellanos’ 91.6 Total QBR ranks third nationally, though he’ll be in for a test the next two weeks — a road trip to Virginia on Friday for what could be a shootout and then a showdown against rival Miami. If Castellanos takes down another top-five team, the Heisman might be his to lose.
A part of the same class as Drew Allar, Pribula wasn’t able to get onto the field with any regularity at Penn State. He entered the portal and landed at Missouri, but he didn’t win the starting job there until just before the opener. And yet, once he was given his chance to shine, Pribula has looked like a star. He has racked up 11 TDs so far this season and has the Tigers undefeated and trending up in the rankings.
The sixth-year senior has been through his share of growing pains. He was a well-regarded recruit at Colorado but was part of the brutal 2021 season that led to the arrival of coach Deion Sanders, then transferred to Nevada, where his team struggled again. Now he has found the right fit at Memphis, where he has the Tigers 4-0 and well positioned to snag the Group of 6’s playoff spot.
North Texas is 4-0 and Mestemaker has 10 TD passes and no picks. It’d be a great story if that was all there was to it. But this rags-to-riches tale goes much deeper. Mestemaker wasn’t even the starter at his high school and arrived at UNT as a walk-on. He got the start in last year’s bowl game after Chandler Morris entered the portal, then beat out Reese Poffenbarger for the starting job this fall. He has rewarded the Mean Green’s belief with a red-hot start to the season. — David Hale
Biggest things that need to happen in these matchups
Auburn-Texas A&M: This series has been a strange one since 2021. The Aggies won twice at home, both times by 17 points. Auburn won twice at home, by three in 2022 and then two last year, in a 43-41 upset in four overtimes. This game, in College Station, will be another interesting one. The Aggies are coming off a bye week after their upset of Notre Dame, their first nonconference road win against an AP top-10 team since 1979. Auburn lost 24-17 at Oklahoma and is 0-5 under Hugh Freeze against ranked teams on the road. For the Tigers, they’ll first need to shore up an offensive line that gave up eight sacks on Jackson Arnold from a standard pass rush. But Auburn will look to move the ball with its rushing attack (198 yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry) against the Aggies, who are giving up 139 yards per game on the ground and are 102nd nationally in scoring defense at 28.7 points. But if the Aggies can get Arnold into being one-dimensional and having to play from behind, that will give them an advantage. They can do so by utilizing the dynamic duo of Mario Craver, the SEC’s leading receiver with 443 yards, even with the bye week (he had seven catches for 207 yards against Notre Dame), and KC Concepcion, who had four catches for 82 yards against the Irish. — Dave Wilson
LSU-Ole Miss: Last season’s showdown went to overtime in Baton Rouge. Expect another tight battle that comes down to details and who capitalizes on opportunities. Third-down conversions are going to be essential. Ole Miss’ offense is 5-of-17 on third and medium (3 to 7 yards) this season, and LSU’s defense is getting stops on 14 of 22 chances in that spot. This is where Lane Kiffin’s decision at QB becomes even more critical. Trinidad Chambliss is averaging 12.3 yards per carry on third downs and has yet to take a third-down sack. Can he be efficient in those high-pressure moments against the best defense he has faced? For LSU’s offense, the big question is injured running back Caden Durham‘s availability and finding answers in the run game so Garrett Nussmeier isn’t frequently stuck in third-and-long. The Tigers’ average third-down distance this season has been 7.9 yards, which ranks 114th in FBS, according to ESPN Research. — Max Olson
Oregon-Penn State: Quarterback Drew Allar needs to be a reason — perhaps the reason — why the Nittany Lions notch a signature win in a game in which they have most of the advantages. Allar wasn’t overly sharp in his past two performances, completing fewer than 58% of his passes against both Villanova and Florida International. He will need to be sharper against a talented but quite young Oregon defense, and start to change his big-game rep. Oregon must show it can handle one of the toughest environments in college football, Beaver Stadium at night in a White Out. The game marks a big growth opportunity for Ducks quarterback Dante Moore, a first-year starter, and also promising young players such as wide receiver Dakorien Moore and defensive backs Brandon Finney Jr. and Aaron Flowers. The Ducks visited Michigan and Wisconsin in 2024, but they haven’t faced an elite Big Ten opponent on the road until now. — Adam Rittenberg
Quotes of the Week
“We need this place rocking,” Penn State coach James Franklin said ahead of the Nittany Lions’ White Out game against No. 6 Oregon. “Need to have a distinct home-field advantage. We always do, but I’m expecting this to be an environment like no one has ever seen.”
“We’ll do everything we can to be prepared for that environment for sure,” said Oregon’s Dan Lanning, who was also asked about the song “Mo Bamba”, which has become a fixture of No. 3 Penn State home games. “I don’t love that song.”
“I would say he’s probably the hottest quarterback right now in all of college football,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of Alabama’s Ty Simpson ahead of the Bulldogs’ Week 5 visit from the No. 17 Crimson Tide. “His two last outings, I don’t know [if] I’ve seen an incompletion. The ball does not hit the ground. He’s been accurate. He’s been quick with the ball. They’re really hard to defend because of their skill. They’ve got tremendous skill — receivers, backs, tight ends. But you got to have a trigger guy that can get those guys the ball and they do.”
“We ain’t with that get-back stuff,” Colorado’s Deion Sanders said as his team prepares to face No. 25 BYU nine months after the Cougars blew out the Buffaloes in the 2024 Valero Alamo Bowl. “I ain’t with that get-back stuff. I’m with that let’s-get-them stuff. They played their butts off, kicked our butts in the bowl game. Now we have a whole new team.”
“I always love when you guys say that, like, ‘Oh, OK, now we’ll go actually, like, try and game-plan really hard,” Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin said with the Rebels set to host No. 4 LSU on Saturday. “It’s OK. My boss says the same things when we play Arkansas. ‘Hey, I really need this one.’ Oh, OK, well then we’ll actually, like, try this week. We were just going to not try.”
“Is it hot in here or is it just me every week?” Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy speaking to reporters three days after the Cowboys 19-12 loss to Tulsa and less than 24 hours before he was fired Tuesday morning after his 21st season in charge of the program.
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Bill Connelly
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 18 South Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
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