‘If a cap is the only answer, we’re all in trouble’: What fight over salary cap means for MLB’s future
OF ALL THE things to cause outrage, to intensify the bleating that baseball is broken and the Los Angeles Dodgers are the culprit, the signing that generated the most consternation was that of a relief pitcher. Not Shohei Ohtani‘s $700 million contract in 2023. Not the $325 million guaranteed to Yoshinobu Yamamoto a few weeks later. Not the $182 million that added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell last offseason. Not even the drastically under-market deal signed by Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki that winter. There was something about the four-year, $72 million contract given to left-hander Tanner Scott in January that infuriated fan bases in every market outside of Los Angeles — even the only one that dwarfs it.
“It’s difficult for most of us owners to be able to do the kinds of things they’re doing,” New York Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner told the YES Network a week after the Scott deal. That the Yankees — the most valuable franchise in baseball, the game’s foremost revenue machine, owners of the highest payroll each of the first 14 years this century — had joined the chorus typically reserved for smaller-market teams questioning the game’s fairness was no accident. Even if formal discussions about Major League Baseball’s next collective bargaining agreement are half a year away, the campaign to capture the hearts and minds of the paying consumers has already begun.
So far, the case made by Steinbrenner and a cadre of other influential team officials has focused more on what’s wrong with baseball’s current financial system than what they would prefer in its place. That preference, according to conversations with more than two dozen people — including officials from MLB and the MLB Players Association, players, owners and personnel from the other three major men’s North American sports — need not be spoken aloud to be understood.
MLB wants a salary cap, and between now and Dec. 1, 2026, when the current collective bargaining agreement expires, those two words — which owners regard as a necessity and the MLBPA as a profanity — could presage the fate of the 2027 season. Owners, sources said, have not yet decided whether they will take the biggest run at the implementation of a cap since 1994, when the union’s refusal to budge on the matter led to the cancellation of the World Series. Players are preparing for it, though, and plan to refuse any such entreaties, regarding a continued pursuit of a cap as a declaration of war.
Without the exceptional spending of the Dodgers and New York Mets in recent years, the case for MLB to forsake the economic system that has led to more than a quarter-century of labor peace would not have nearly the public support it does. And yet the purported facts pertaining to salary caps, which exist in the NFL, NBA and NHL, are often misunderstood.
What’s not is the disparity between what the Dodgers are spending on their payroll compared with their peers. Currently, sources said, Los Angeles is carrying a $340.9 million payroll. Because the Dodgers have exceeded every threshold of the league’s luxury tax — which kicks in at $241 million and includes penalties for repeat offenders — they owe an additional $167.4 million.
The Dodgers’ total projected outlay of $508.3 million is just a few million dollars shy of the combined payrolls of the game’s six lowest-spending teams — Miami, the Athletics, Tampa Bay, the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh and Cleveland — all of which carry sub-$100 million rosters. Los Angeles will pay more in penalties than 16 teams do for their whole roster and have guaranteed enough going forward that they’re already over the CBT threshold for 2026 and, if it’s still around, 2027.
On the day of Scott’s signing, MLB Trade Rumors ran a two-question poll for its readers. The first asked: “Do you want a salary cap in the next MLB CBA?” After more than 35,000 votes, the results — however skewed by the frustration over the Dodgers’ spending and use of deferred money — were overwhelming: 67.2% said yes. The second question painted an even darker portrait: If it meant the implementation of a cap, 50.2% of respondents said they were willing to lose the 2027 season.
The Dodgers’ relative struggles this season have cooled some of the pro-cap pontification. Rather than some unstoppable machine, they’ve been merely very good: 85-67 (tied for the fifth-best record in MLB) with a run differential of +122 (fifth in baseball). The optics of their profligate spending nevertheless brand them as a symptom of a system run amok. Whether the inequities — some real, some perceived — define the game enough to warrant a wholesale overhaul of its economic system is a decades-old debate once again being relitigated, regurgitated talking points and all.
“The only way to fix baseball is to do a salary cap and a floor,” Dick Monfort, the Colorado Rockies owner and chair of the league’s labor committee during the most recent basic-agreement negotiations, told the Denver Gazette in March. Other owners, including Baltimore’s David Rubenstein, have explicitly addressed the need for a cap, a change from the unspoken compact that since 1994 has treated the topic as a third rail.
Players have greeted the new tack with pushback. Philadelphia star Bryce Harper stood nose-to-nose with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and told him any talk of a cap would require him to “get the f— out of our clubhouse” earlier this summer. Union officials, in their own meetings with teams, have made abundantly clear their position: A cap is a red line, and any time spent discussing it is wasted.
How much of the rhetoric is pretense and how much is real will reveal itself over the next 14 months. Both sides have other pressing priorities for now: MLB is trying to navigate the collapse of the regional-sports-network model that for years enriched teams via local television contracts, and the MLBPA is under investigation by federal investigators looking into alleged financial malfeasance. Soon enough, the calendar will bring the sides to the bargaining table and force them to train their attention on the ideological chasm that exists. It’s not just the 2027 season that’s at stake. It’s the future of the game.
WITH A LITTLE over a week left in the 2025 regular season, all eight teams that have exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year are in position to make the playoffs. Even though the Dodgers are not the juggernaut they seemed heading into the season, October nevertheless beckons. And if the Mets can maintain their fragile hold on the final National League wild-card spot, it will leave just four opportunities for the remaining 22 teams.
MLB’s argument for a cap starts with shrinking the economic disparity to foster fairness regardless of market size and revenue. Payroll correlates more strongly with winning in baseball than in any of the capped sports, and this reality alarms league officials.
“How do we compete?” one midsized-market team president said. “We try to do everything right. We draft well. We develop well. And then we get the s— kicked out of us by clubs that buy their players. It feels like the game is rigged.”
Though the late 1990s and mid-to-late 2000s come close, never before has there been a payroll divide like today. Money does not guarantee winning — the 2023 Mets, 2023 Yankees, 2019 Cubs and 2019 Red Sox all carried top-two payrolls and spent their Octobers at home — but it certainly helps. The same high-spending teams dominate the winter — over the past three years, the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies have signed 10 of the 17 nine-figure free agents — and target the top-tier talents with whom lower-revenue teams typically don’t engage.
“I don’t blame owners for not wanting to lose money,” one small-market owner said, voicing a long-held contention of MLB teams: They are simply not very profitable. While that is unknowable — only the Atlanta Braves, who are owned by Liberty Media, share their financials publicly — Forbes this year in its valuation of MLB teams estimated that 11 had lost money, led by the Mets at $268 million. The other 10 teams, it said, bled $311.5 million combined. MLB’s profitable teams, in the meantime, made a combined $639 million, with the Red Sox at $120 million profit and the Cubs at $81 million.
But fans don’t follow their teams for profit-and-loss statements, and the belief among those in favor of a cap is that lessening financial disparity will improve competitive balance. Certain data points support this idea. Teams with top-10 payrolls reach and win the World Series significantly more often than lesser spenders. Smaller markets — which, in almost every case, likewise carry smaller payrolls — are practically nonexistent at the end of October.
And yet, as the MLBPA attempts to fight the prevailing narrative that the game would be better off with a cap, it can point to small-market success stories which illustrate that the have-nots in baseball can win.
The best team in MLB this season carries the 21st-highest payroll in the game at around $115 million. Only three of its 28 players signed as free agents — and one of them re-signed after being drafted and developed by the organization. The Milwaukee Brewers are an anomaly, yes, but they are also a compelling counterpoint to the notion that financial disparity disqualifies small-market, low-revenue teams. And they are not alone. The Tampa Bay Rays made the World Series in 2020 with the 28th-ranked payroll, and the Cleveland Guardians reached the American League Championship Series last year with the 23rd.
None of the three has won a World Series this century, but more than half of MLB teams (16) have. That beats the NHL (14), NFL (13) and NBA (12). Other measures point to parity on par with the other sports: The number of teams to make the playoffs in the past half-decade and decade, those that made it to the final four and even those that reached the championship series, is similar to — and, in some cases, better than — the capped leagues.
This is where the cognitive dissonance of a cap reveals itself. How should a league judge parity? What do fans desire? What’s signal; what’s noise?
At the end of the day, as a large-market owner acknowledged, more than focusing on flattening payrolls and increasing competitiveness, the primary benefit — and motivation for a significant number of owners — of a cap is increasing franchise values. If baseball teams are a break-even business, as officials often contend, the easiest area in which owners can make a return on their investment is in the growth of the asset. In recent years, the owner said, the value of MLB franchises has plateaued, particularly when compared with the three capped sports, prompting frustration among owners and impelling the push for a cap.
“That’s what this is all about,” one longtime labor lawyer said. “That if the costs are fixed, the franchise values will go up.”
THE UNION’S ANTI-CAP beliefs are every bit as fervent — if not more than — as MLB’s pro-cap line. From Marvin Miller to Donald Fehr to Michael Weiner, nearly five decades of union leadership has instilled in players the creed that a cap is more problem than panacea. During the union’s tour this season around clubhouses, players said, union officials have railed against the idea.
Manfred and league officials have pitched players on the notion of money left on the table. In a capped system, the parties would first define baseball-related revenue, then negotiate a percentage that goes to the players. Although any discussion of the revenue pool would be contentious — for example: would it include money generated by ancillary businesses owned by teams, such as the Battery that surrounds Atlanta’s Truist Park? — the league has leaned strongly into the idea that players would make more money under a cap than they do now. Some of the 1,200 members who comprise the MLBPA buy the argument.
“Most of my younger guys want a cap,” one agent with more than a dozen major league players as clients said. “They see it in the other sports. It’s normalized to them. And they think for everything they could get in bargaining — especially more money earlier in careers or earlier free agency — it would be worth it.”
Multiple agents agree that there are plausible scenarios in which players would benefit in the short and long term from a cap. Acceding to one could allow the players to negotiate earlier free agency, for example, which the league would never consider otherwise.
But union officials have spent their own sessions pushing back on the idea that a cap is a salve. Why, they said, would teams be any more inclined to grow revenues in a capped system than they are in an uncapped system? If a cap means more money for younger players, why can’t the same be the case in an uncapped system? If a cap would guarantee players a larger share of industry revenues, why can’t an uncapped system?
Ultimately, the skepticism of a capped system is rooted in two principles, which the union full-throatedly shares with players. The first is the detriments of a ceiling on player salaries; caps are zero-sum, the union reminds them. And any conversations about money are theoretical, at least for now. One area in which owners have yet to find agreement, sources said, is what a capped system in baseball would resemble. The NBA has a soft cap with significant penalties for overages and a salary floor at 90% of the cap. The NFL is hard-capped, with a firm ceiling and a floor of 89% of the cap over a four-year period. The NHL’s system includes a hard cap of $95.5 million and a floor of $70.6 million.
In its first proposal during the 2021-22 negotiations that led to a 99-day lockout by MLB, the league offered a $100 million floor with a $180 million soft cap — $30 million less than the previous first threshold of the luxury tax, also known as the competitive balance tax (CBT). The MLBPA quickly condemned the plan, and the league backed away from blowing up the game’s economic structure in its later offers.
The second principle the union is sharing is that every deal after the first is bound to get worse. Look at the three capped sports. They’ve gone backward in terms of revenue split. In the NFL’s initial collective bargaining agreement with a cap in 1994, the players received 64% of revenue. Today it’s 48%. Basketball (1984) and hockey (2005) started at 57%. Now it’s 51% in the NBA and 50% in hockey.
“Once you’re in a capped system, you never get out,” one MLBPA official said. “Whatever that special introductory offer is, once they have you, they know you’ve lost.”
AS MUCH AS MLB wants a salary cap now, multiple owners said they believe the only real path to one would require missing the 2027 season. And as unpalatable as that is to players, it’s similarly so to owners, not just because of what they’d lose out on today but the money they would cede in the future.
The collapse of regional sports networks has left Manfred with what could be a blessing in disguise. MLB’s national television contracts expire following the 2028 season. Between now and then, Manfred hopes to whip up support across the game to nationalize local rights, too. Although convincing the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and other teams with their own RSNs or strong local television deals to join a potential 30-team package won’t be easy, multiple sources said the league is confident in its ability to consolidate local rights and shop them to streaming services that would pay billions for a guaranteed audience on nearly half the nights of the year.
Provided that audience is still there. Manfred worked for MLB in 1994 and is acutely aware of how destructive the lost World Series was for attendance and television ratings. If MLB is going to maximize its TV rights, doing so coming off a down ratings year in 2028 after losing the 2027 season could prove financially calamitous.
“It’s going to be very hard to have a cap in this round of bargaining,” the longtime labor lawyer said. “Because the media transition is still ongoing.”
It’s not the only item on Manfred’s docket, either. He hopes to name two expansion franchises and devise realigned divisions before his planned retirement in January 2029. All of that uncertainty makes an endeavor already fraught with peril even more so — and sets up the sort of centralization of revenues that mimics the capped leagues. Whether the players would be any more open-minded to a cap then than they are now could be determined in the years to come.
In the meantime, the argument over a cap will rage. The league will continue to make its case to a public that has increasingly warmed to the notion of something to fight back against the big spenders in the same way MLB tried to in the late 1990s when the Yankees were the Evil Empire and the CBT was introduced to tamp down the spending gaps that pervaded the sport.
“It hasn’t worked,” one league official said.
Neither at the top, where the Dodgers are spending half a billion dollars, nor at the bottom, where the A’s have carried an Opening Day payroll that ranks among the bottom quarter of the league for 18 consecutive seasons, as have the Pirates for 21 of 22 campaigns, and the Rays for 24 straight years. Over the past three winters, 13 teams have not guaranteed a free agent deal for more than $50 million, an alarming figure that speaks to the aversion of some owners to play even in reasonable financial sandboxes.
Without a floor, there’s not much the MLBPA can do other than hope the teams at the top continue chasing wins. And with that comes more disparity, a likelier scenario in which CBT payors continue to rack up wins, and further bifurcation in a system whose warts have grown ugly enough that the public is skeptical it can be fixed.
It’s why Tanner Scott, of all people, caused the consternation he did on that mid-January day. It wasn’t just what the Dodgers had assembled; it was that all of their advantages — the TV deal, the other revenue streams and the munificent ownership group that reinvested in the on-field product — would allow them to continue outspending their peers by hundreds of millions ad infinitum without outside intervention.
As long as the leviathans continue to invest in high-end stars and push payrolls to places previously unimaginable, status quo suits the MLBPA just fine. They can tweak revenue sharing, offer incentives to lower-revenue teams that spend, juice CBT penalties. The drawbacks to capped systems, in the eyes of union and player leadership, are too plentiful for them to even entertain the idea. Just look, one veteran player said, at the NBA. If a capped system is so good for all parties involved, why are the LA Clippers being accused of trying to circumvent it with an off-the-books deal for star forward Kawhi Leonard?
“I don’t want one team spending half a billion dollars and another spending $50 million, either,” he said. “But if a cap is the only answer, we’re all in trouble.”
Inspirational thought of the week:
Danny Ocean: That ought to do it, don’t you think?
Rusty Ryan: [Stares away in silence]
Danny: You think we need one more?
Rusty: [remains silent with his head leaning on top of his folded arms while hunched over on the bar]
Danny: You think we need one more.
Rusty: [remains silent]
Danny: All right, we’ll get one more.
Rusty: [Blinks]
— “Ocean’s Eleven”
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located beneath a pile of old Rene Ingoglia UMass jerseys, we believe in extending the good times, but also the bad times. That’s why we love Thanksgiving leftovers.
When you go to the ice box Saturday and open that recycled Country Crock container full of what’s left from your Aunt Nancy’s artichoke casserole, it reminds of you of Thanksgiving dinner and the laughs shared around the table with family and friends. But it also reminds you that Aunt Nancy is a bit off-kilter, because there are actually three butter containers packed with her gluten-free artichoke casserole that no one ate because she fills it with sliced grapes.
So, with apologies to Mr. Ingoglia because we don’t want him to run over us the way he did Rhode Island in 1995 or take us down the way he did so many criminals as a member of the Orlando P.D., we have to extend these rankings for one more week, despite the fact that his alma mater went on and did their dirty work early. Like Aunt Nancy, who we’re pretty sure cut up the onions for her casserole a month ahead of time. Thus, Uncle Charlie doing his dirty work to the living room commode the rest of the evening.
With further apologies to former Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich, Iowa State receiver Dominic Overby, Central Michigan D-lineman Quavion Bird and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 13/pre-Thanksgiving Bottom 10 rankings.
The Minuetmen did indeed do their dirty work ahead of schedule, unleashing their final #MACtion matchup of the season not on Tuesday night, but rather Tuesday afternoon, as they hosted Boiling Green at 4:30 p.m. They lost 45-14, securing their status as the nation’s only winless team and also securing their ability to enjoy their Turkey Day dinner as they sit and watch their would-be Bottom 10 championship rivals helplessly slide backward down the hill like cars trying to drive up Beacon Hill during winter.
Georgia paid the Niners $1.9 million to come to Athens and lose 35-3. Former Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning paid them nothing to change their names to Chattanooga State.
The Panthers saw their losing streak extend to eight games after a road loss to Troy Bolton State. They end their season at Old Dominion, which is the school and not the trucking company or the country music band. Though I would totally watch a music video starring the Georgia State team traveling to face Old Dominion in an Old Dominion truck while listening to the perfect Bottom 10 theme song, Old Dominion’s “Time, Tequila and Therapy.”
The beauty of college football is that even a bummer of a season can be saved by a Rivalry Week victory, and the Cowboys can do that via a big Bedlam win over — checks notes — Iowa State?
A quick Coveted Fifth Spot reminder that “The Many Lives of Lane Kiffin” is streaming now on the all-new ESPN App. We worked really hard on that E:60 documentary all spring and summer, especially the part when he wonders aloud why he would ever leave Oxford because he and his family are so happy there. When we made that film, we had no idea that, like the onions in Aunt Nancy’s casserole, there was an expiration date.
Speaking of confusing films, the Beavs continue to make the Bottom 10 rankings feel like an early Christopher Nolan movie that continuously alters our beliefs on what constitutes reality. They won two in a row, then lost two in a row, including a defeat at the hands of …
The then-winless Bearkats klipped Oregon State, then konquered Delaware, but kouldn’t keep the wins koming as they sukkumbed to …
The then-second-ranked Blew Raiders blew by the then-ninth-ranked Bearkats 31-17 to win what probably was the season’s final true Pillow Fight Of The Week Of The Year, because this week’s season finale trip to Whew Mexico State isn’t what we thought it might be because the former Bottom 10 stalwart Other Aggies had the audacity to have already won four games, including last week’s win over …
The Minors avoided these rankings all season before reentering one week ago and then reiterating that entry via a closing-seconds 34-31 loss to New Mexico State in the 102nd edition of the Battle of I-10, which is especially impressive considering that I-10 wasn’t constructed until the 1960s.
The Golden Beagles nearly ruined Georgia Tech’s season two weekends ago, then instead had to watch as fellow former Big East member Pitt wound up spinning out the Rambling Wreck. Now BC closes out the year against another Big East refugee, Syracuse, who at the time of this story’s writing, was still surrendering touchdowns to Notre Dame in the South Bend bus parking lot, on the South Bend airport tarmac and in their recurring nightmares.
Waiting List: No-vada, San No-sé State, Pur-don’t, Arkansaw Fightin’ Petrinos, ULM (pronounced “Uhlm”), Colora-duh State, Ram spitting.
Sports
MLB execs predict the offseason: Where will top free agent pitchers land? Does Tucker get $400 million?
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Jesse Rogers
The hot stove started simmering early this MLB offseason — and shows no signs of slowing down.
The Seattle Mariners kicked the winter off by re-signing Josh Naylor, followed by the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles pulling off an early trade. Then the Texas Rangers and New York Mets upped the ante with a Marcus Semien-for-Brandon Nimmo swap before the Boston Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday.
Before things heat up again after Thanksgiving, we polled 16 MLB executives on what’s to come the rest of the winter, from which teams will be busiest to where the biggest free agents will land. (Respondents were given the choice to skip any questions, so not every answer has 16 votes.)
Will Kyle Tucker get more than $400 million, and who will give it to him?
Survey says: $400 million? Yes 6, No 10
Who will sign him? New York Yankees 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Toronto Blue Jays 3, Detroit Tigers 1, Philadelphia Phillies 1, Orioles 1
The good news for Tucker is that nearly every executive who voted “No” on him making more than $400 million said it would still be close. If not for a couple of second-half injuries this season, it probably wouldn’t even have been a debate (his 143 OPS+ in 2025 still matched his total from 2023, when he finished fifth in MVP voting). In fact, one executive opined that if Tucker was healthy the entire season, the above dollar figure would start with a five, not a four.
“I see it at $350 million over 10 years,” one exec said. “My prediction is the Yankees.”
“I don’t think he gets to $400 million,” another said. “Seems to me the right number will be in the mid-300’s … but as we always say, it only takes one, so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if it ended up starting with a four. I think he ends up with the Yankees.”
“My prediction is that he will sign an [Alex] Bregman-type deal with a shorter-term, higher AAV and opt-out(s) in hopes of having a monster season in ’26 or ’27 and hitting the [free agent] market again coming off a better year,” another voter responded. “The Yankees seem well positioned for a deal like that.”
The Yankees kept coming up in answers, but they weren’t the only ones. One respondent thought Baltimore or Detroit could put more than $400 million in Tucker’s pocket and the voter who chose Philadelphia did it with the caveat of Kyle Schwarber leaving. But coming in second in our poll were the back-to-back World Series champions.
“I think he does get there on a longer deal with lower AAV with opt-outs,” an executive said. “Hate to say it, but probably Dodgers.”
Another added: “The Dodgers have need in the outfield. Some of their hitters are getting older. They have everything they need on the mound. Now they need to help their offense.”
Where will the top 3 free agent starters with MLB experience sign?
Survey says:
Framber Valdez: Blue Jays 5, New York Mets 4, Orioles 4, Tigers 1, Houston Astros 1
Dylan Cease: Mets 6, Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2, Atlanta Braves 2, Chicago Cubs, 1, San Francisco Giants 1
Ranger Suarez: Red Sox 4, Phillies 4, Blue Jays 3, Braves 2, Giants 1
The Blue Jays showed up as possibilities for each pitcher, as executives believe they will add to their team after making the World Series and coming so close to winning it all this past season.
“I could see the Blue Jays adding a lefty like Valdez,” one executive said. “He fills a need and might send them back to October baseball.”
The Mets weren’t far behind in the voting, considering their starting staff was a mess late in the year and they relied on rookies down the stretch. The only pitcher several voters believe even has a chance at returning to his old team is Suarez.
“With [Zack] Wheeler out, I think Suarez goes back to Philadelphia,” another exec said. “It’s kind of like Schwarber. They need him more than he needs them.”
A voter who chose Atlanta for Cease called it “low-hanging fruit” since he’s from the area, adding: “The Battery/new ballpark has been a financial boost for them.”
Who will sign Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai?
Survey says: Giants 5, Yankees 3, Dodgers 3, Cubs 2, Blue Jays 1, San Diego Padres 1
The usual suspects, plus Toronto, show up here — most of these teams have been perennial favorites for Japanese players coming over to MLB for the first time. These teams are among those with a leg up on the rest of the competition as they’ve put time, money and energy into recruiting in Japan. At 27 years old, Imai is the right age for a multiyear deal and should benefit from the success of others from Japan that came before him.
“The Giants have been in the hunt [for a Japanese pitcher] in the past; pairing Imai with Logan Webb makes a ton of sense,” one executive said.
Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers were tied for the second-most votes, as they have secured the top three Japanese free agents over the past two offseasons in Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki.
“Dodgers,” another said. “Seems like they have that market somewhat cornered.”
Chicago, who extended a qualifying offer to Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga this winter that was accepted, is also in the mix.
“The Cubs have already stated they need more pitching, and they should have room even after Imanaga returned,” another executive stated.
Which of these hitters — Schwarber, Bregman, Cody Bellinger and Pete Alonso — will return to their original team?
Survey says: Schwarber 7, Alonso 4, Bregman 4
What’s most interesting is not who got votes for this question — Schwarber makes sense as the leading answer here — but that not a single person has Bellinger returning to the Yankees. He provided some much-needed balance to their lineup, so if he walks, perhaps it does open the door for Tucker in New York — as respondents indicated in their answers to the earlier question.
As for Schwarber, Alonso and Bregman, voters had similar lines of thinking: These are players who are crucial to their respective teams, which paves the way for a potential reunion.
“The Phillies need Schwarber more than he needs them, so in pure contract terms, they may have to overpay,” one executive said. “But he’s worth it. He’ll stay.”
“At this point, Alonso is synonymous as a Met,” another voter said. “He’s the most popular player. And he can hit. They need him.”
“Bregman provided so much [leadership] for Boston and that park is perfect for him,” another executive said.
Which free agent contract is going to raise the most eyebrows?
Survey says: Edwin Diaz 2, Bo Bichette 2, Schwarber 2, J.T. Realmuto 2, Zack Littell 1, Lucas Giolito 1, Munetaka Murakami 1
There’s no real consensus here, but one commonality between the players listed above: Nearly all of them are over 30 years old.
Age is something that always gives teams some pause — and the only reason Schwarber shows up here: “The contract length for an aging designated hitter will be the most surprising part,” one voter said.
An executive who chose Diaz in this category simply noted the length of the potential deal and the volatility of the position.
“Diaz is set to cash in, but how many times do we see that backfire for closers?” another voter brought up. “Not always, but often.”
Bichette and Murakami are the only two players given as answers to this question who aren’t yet 30 years old — but that doesn’t mean they don’t have concerns of their own.
“I’m just thinking about the years for Bichette and where he’ll play and all that,” one executive said. “His contract will be most interesting to me.”
“My pick is Murakami,” another said. “Seems like the league is mixed on him due to swing-and-miss concerns.”
What will the Tigers do with Tarik Skubal this offseason — trade him, extend him or let it play out?
Survey says: Let it play out 10, trade him 3, sign/extend him 0
Letting it play out might have been the easy answer here — though, it could also easily be the right one. It kicks the Skubal decision down the road and opens a just-in-case door: If the Tigers’ 2026 season isn’t going well, then dealing him at the July trade deadline will make it a lot easier to swallow.
“I doubt they can afford to extend him, but they also know they can’t win the division without him. I think they roll with him in ’26 unless they get blown away with a trade concept,” one executive said.
Of course, letting the situation play out comes with its own set of risks.
“The longer they wait to trade him, the stickier it gets,” another voter stated. “Value could go down or perhaps worse, if you’re ownership. He gets off to another Cy Young start and fans start screaming even louder to sign him.”
Of course, signing him now would undoubtedly be nice for Detroit fans, but not one respondent thought that would happen this winter.
Who is the top trade candidate of the winter not named Skubal?
Survey says: Joe Ryan 2, Freddy Peralta 2, Ketel Marte 2, MacKenzie Gore 1, Steven Kwan 1, Luis Robert Jr. 1, a Pirates starter 1
There is no shortage of trade candidates this offseason, as there are several teams seemingly willing to move pitching. That’s not the case every winter, but for whatever reason — team friendly salaries, players nearing free agency, payroll shedding — we might see more movement on the mound than usual ahead of the 2026 season. (Two respondents from our poll chose Gray for this question, and they proved to be right after Tuesday’s deal sent the hurler to Boston.)
“The Twins were in the trade market over the summer, testing the waters on Ryan,” one executive said. “I think that leads to him getting moved this winter.”
“I don’t know if Peralta’s salary [$8 million] makes him more or less desirable for the [Milwaukee] Brewers to move him, but they’ll probably do the opposite of what everyone is thinking!” one exec half-joked. “And it’ll work.”
One respondent coyly mentioned a Pirates starter getting moved — but didn’t specify which one. Several mentioned keeping an eye on the Rangers as they look to cut payroll, though the trade of Semien for Nimmo didn’t necessarily accomplish that in the short term. The Rangers don’t seem to be done with their wheeling and dealing.
There were also a couple of surprising answers.
“Sleeper name: Tyler Glasnow,” said one voter. “Feels like the Dodgers can go to Ohtani, Yamamoto, [Blake] Snell, Sasaki, [Emmet] Sheehan and others and use Glasnow on the trade market to cover up holes.”
And what’s an MLB offseason without a blockbuster trade prediction.
“Blockbuster alert: Ketel Marte,” one voter simply stated.
Which smaller-market team will make the most noise this winter?
Survey says: Pittsburgh Pirates 5, Cincinnati Reds 3, Kansas City Royals 3, Miami Marlins 3, Tampa Bay Rays 2
Stop if you’ve heard this before, Pirates fans: Ownership is going to spend. Actually, you probably have not heard that before this winter, but that sentiment has picked up steam early this offseason. Even agents are feeling cautiously optimistic about it.
“The Pirates better pair a good hitter or two with [Paul] Skenes or else we all know what happens,” one executive said. “There’s been enough chatter. I vote for them.”
Either way, there has been more chatter in general about small-market teams spending this winter. Are the Reds one big bat away? Will the Marlins’ surprising season lead them to some aggressive signings? And everyone knows the Royals need hitting.
“Both Pittsburgh and Kansas City have top-of-the-game superstars that they need to support with more money,” one voter said. “The noise from Pittsburgh has already started but I will go with Kansas City because I think they spend the most on one player.”
“Remember, the Rays have new ownership,” another executive said. “It may not show up in payroll this offseason, but it should soon.”
One voter who chose the Reds didn’t mince words: “Their lineup was not very good; they likely know they need to upgrade their position player group. Schwarber went to high school in the Cincinnati suburbs.“
Maybe it’s the year of the small market!
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Greg Wyshynski
Thanksgiving in the USA. Turkey, pumpkin pie, that parade with all the giant balloons and the time-honored tradition of NHL teams in playoff seeds breathing just a bit easier.
Since the NHL switched to the wild-card format in 2013-14, 77% of teams in a playoff position on Turkey Day go on to make the Stanley Cup playoffs (excluding the two COVID-impacted seasons), according to ESPN Research. In half of those 10 seasons, 13 of 16 teams remained in playoff spots by season’s end. There has never been fewer than 11 or more than 13 Thanksgiving playoff teams that eventually made the cut.
In other words, there are always teams on the outside who get in.
Last season, the Montreal Canadiens (five points back), Ottawa Senators (three back), St. Louis Blues (two back) and Edmonton Oilers (one back) were not in playoff spots at Thanksgiving and still made the postseason tournament. Over the past 10 non-COVID seasons, teams on the outside that eventually made the postseason where 2.8 points back of a playoff seed.
For some teams, it’s time to panic. But panic isn’t all-encompassing. There are specific kinds of it, and different intensities to it.
Here is the American Thanksgiving NHL Panic Index, beginning with the teams that are feeling the least indigestion at the dinner table.
Complete nirvana
They have reached a stage of spiritual enlightenment. As the Buddha taught, if one scores all the goals (4.00 per game through 22 games, best in the NHL) and allows the fewest (2.18 goals against per game, best in the NHL) then that is the path to many victories. They are in a state where suffering has been extinguished, with an .841 points percentage and one regulation loss as of Nov. 24.
Stathletes has the Avalanche with the best percentage chance of making the playoffs, winning their conference and eventually capturing the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.
Zero panic
Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning
These three teams are right where many expected they’d be.
The Lightning entered Tuesday atop the Atlantic Division, which is no small feat considering the injury and production concerns they’ve had with some of their impact players — Brayden Point, to be specific. Or perhaps this is just an indictment of the Atlantic Division’s overall quality.
The Hurricanes have the goal differential of a Rod Brind’Amour team (plus-12) except this time it’s their deep offense outpacing their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin for all but two games.
Like the Lightning, the Stars have hung tough despite injuries to players such as Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, thanks in no small part to Jason Robertson (13 goals), Mikko Rantanen (10 goals) and Wyatt Johnston (11 goals), a trio who scored roughly 49% of the team’s goals through 22 games.
0:40
Jason Robertson lights the lamp for Stars
Jason Robertson nets goal for Stars
Panicked, but relatively pleased
Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington Capitals
The key word here is “relatively.” Every team here has something it can hang its hopes on.
Like the Flyers having located a competent goaltender (Dan Vladar) to play in back of a Rick Tocchet system that’s seventh in expected goals against at 5-on-5. Like the Islanders combining a jolt of adrenaline from the play of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with dominant goaltending from Ilya Sorokin to place in the top three in the Metro.
Like the Capitals being right in the Metro mix thanks to their own stellar netminder Logan Thompson (12.6 goals saved above expected) and a dominant offensive start from Tom Wilson — two guys doing everything they can to make the Canadian Olympic team.
The Mammoth are right where they want to be: In a playoff position with young stars such as Logan Cooley in full bloom. The Penguins are where no one expected them to be, as MVP-caliber performances from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have propelled the offense while surprisingly stout goaltending has done the job defensively.
The Wild, meanwhile, enter Turkey Week on a heater, in a season that has featured both a healthy (and soon-to-be handsomely paid!) Kirill Kaprizov and the emphatic arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who went 6-0-2 in his first eight starts with a .935 save percentage, a 1.94 goals-against average and a seismic impact on the rookie of the year race.
Panicked until they’re healthy again
Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg Jets
All of these teams have played through major injuries to major players so far this season.
The back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Panthers were already going to be missing Matthew Tkachuk for the first few months of the season when captain Aleksander Barkov was injured in his first practice, costing him the regular season and potentially the postseason. They’ve treaded water thanks to the outstanding offensive play of Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart (13 goals each), who are doing their part until Tkachuk returns in the coming weeks.
The Devils are doing what they can without Jack Hughes, who needed surgery on his hand after a bizarre accident involving broken glass at a team dinner in Chicago. They’ve obviously done this before, but losing a guy with 10 goals in his first 17 games for up to two months wasn’t ideal. Ditto the Jets and back-to-back Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who’s out for a month after corrective surgery on a knee issue.
The Bruins (Charlie McAvoy) and Kings (Drew Doughty) are both missing marquee defensemen. The Senators are the happiest of this bunch: Captain and burgeoning podcaster Brady Tkachuk, who was lost to a thumb injury after just three games, is expected back in the lineup shortly. He returns to a Senators team that remained in the playoff mix in his absence.
2:30
Tkachuk brothers announce new podcast on McAfee
Brady and Matthew Tkachuk tell Pat McAfee about their motivation to start a podcast together.
Panicked because the goaltending stinks
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues
It’s not exactly headline news that the Oilers’ goaltending stinks, what with the whole “we’re not sure who is starting a Stanley Cup Final elimination game” thing last June against Florida.
But so far this season it has gone from being an Achilles heel to a gangrenous leg. Edmonton has the second worst save percentage (ahead of Nashville) and is fourth worst in the NHL in goals saved above expected. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard continue to have their moments of respectable average play — and atrocious play, like Skinner giving up four goals on eight shots to Dallas on Tuesday — but stop us if you’ve heard this before: a Connor McDavid team is being undercut by its goaltending.
The Blues are another team whose goaltenders haven’t played well off the hop. Stathletes has Jordan Binnington at minus-8.75 goals saved above expected in all situations, and crease-mate Joel Hofer at minus-6.62. St. Louis is 29th in save percentage (.869) through 23 games.
The problem for the Blue Jackets and Red Wings is imbalance. Detroit’s Cam Talbot has played just above expected in 13 starts, putting up respectable numbers while going 9-3-0. But John Gibson, acquired from Anaheim to solidify the tandem, has been anything but solid in 12 appearances, with a minus-3.16 goals saved above expected and what could end up being the worst save percentage of his career.
Meanwhile, Columbus watched Jet Greaves rocket out of the gate to take the starting goaltender job. He has a 7-4-3 record in 14 starts with a solid .904 save percentage, but his numbers have come back to the pack just a little. The bigger issue is that veteran Elvis Merzlikins has seen his early returns (4-1-0, .915 save percentage in October) squandered in losing his next four appearances. Columbus went from a team save percentage in the top five down to 16th overall (.896).
The problem for the Canadiens? Early-season bubbles popping. Rookie Jakub Dobes had a promising start for the Habs, going 6-0-0 in October with a .930 save percentage to help balance out the terrible season that Sam Montembeault is having (.852 save percentage, minus-12.92 goals saved above expected). But Dobes has had a rough November: 1-2-3 with an .843 save percentage behind an increasingly injured Canadiens team. He’s now playing well below expected (minus-5.72 goals saved above expected).
Regression panicked
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken
PDO is a hockey metric that combines a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage into a single number. It’s considered a measure of “puck luck,” while also acting as a predictor of sorts: Teams with an uncharacteristically high PDO are bound to regress to the mean, while those below average should swing upward at some point.
Entering Tuesday, the Blackhawks were third in PDO (1.029) at 5-on-5 after finishing 25th last season. Much of that credit goes to goalie Spencer Knight‘s career-redefining season, leading the league in goals saved above expected (plus-15.5, per Money Puck) and sporting a .924 save percentage. Offensively, they’re shooting 12.6%, second in the NHL. Chicago shot 11.2% last season. If Knight is as good as he has looked in the past 15 games, the Blackhawks might stick around for a bit.
The Kraken are fifth in PDO (1.023) thanks to the best 5-on-5 save percentage in the league (.938). Raise your hand if you expected Matt Murray (.952), Philipp Grubauer (.935) and Joey Daccord (.927) to do what they’ve been doing at even strength this season. Anyone? Anyone? The Lane Lambert effect as head coach does mean the Kraken are a bit offensively challenged, ranking 18th in team shooting percentage (10.7%). The goaltending has them in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving. Will it hold?
The Sharks are right behind the Kraken (1.022) after 23 games, fueled by the fifth-best shooting percentage in the league — thanks, Macklin “20.9%” Celebrini — and goaltending by Yaroslav Askarov, who Money Puck has near the top of the league in goals saved above expected (plus-8.51). Youth and depth might catch up with them eventually, but boy are they fun.
Then come to the Ducks at seventh in PDO (1.020). They were eighth in save percentage at 5-on-5 though 22 games, thanks to Vezina Trophy-worthy netminding by Lukas Dostal (.917 even-strength save percentage) papering over the second-worst 5-on-5 expected goals against in the league. Offensively, they’re a juggernaut, averaging 3.59 goals per game in 22 games, second only to Colorado. There are reasons to believe that offense will keep rolling. The Ducks’ playoff fate depends on the other end of the ice.
1:05
Cutter Gauthier nets OT winner for the Ducks
Cutter Gauthier scores the winning goal to give the Ducks a 4-3 overtime victory over the Golden Knights.
Existential dread
When things went poorly for the Sabres in their first 22 games, like when they dropped eight of nine games, the reaction was “here we go again.”
When things go well for the Sabres, like when they won four of five games heading into Thanksgiving, the reaction was the most guarded optimism imaginable with an impending sense of doom — which is understandable when every season since the last playoff appearance in 2011 has either been a tease or a tank.
Through 22 games, Money Puck gave the Sabres a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs. But Stathletes put their odds at a robust 33.4%. There’s no better example of the divergent paths ahead for this Buffalo team.
If Tage Thompson continues to dominate, if Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin remain a bedrock duo, if they can squeeze out enough goaltending success … maybe the drought ends? Or maybe this ends up being the 15th consecutive “wait ’til next year.”
Extremely panicked
Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Entering Wednesday night, there was only one team in the Eastern Conference with a points percentage under .500: The Maple Leafs (.477 in 22 games), who were last in the East. Star center Auston Matthews played in only 17 of those games. His return will help, and they’re certainly missing other injured players like Chris Tanev.
But there are so many other malfunctions around the Leafs — middling 5-on-5 play, terrible special teams, below-average goaltending and a goals-against average near the league’s basement — that it’s hard to diagnose what needs to change to turn things around. Although the firing of coach Craig Berube has been a popular method discussed by fans and media.
Calgary has dug itself a considerable hole in a suddenly more competitive division. But the Flames (.396 save percentage) recently located a pulse after president of hockey operations Don Maloney told Sportsnet the team isn’t “throwing in the towel” or looking at a total teardown of its roster. Whether that’s the right tact in the long run is up for debate. But it wasn’t great news for fans who were hoping their contending teams might add someone like Nazem Kadri to the mix via trade.
Unlike the Leafs (4.3%) and Flames (5.3%), the Rangers had a solid chance (42.7%) of making the postseason, according to Stathletes. When they hunker down defensively in front of Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers can be a very effective defensive team. But they’ve been a mess offensively since the start of the season, with players like captain J.T. Miller failing to hit their typical point paces. They’re inconsistent and haven’t soothed concerns about their depth. But it’s that lack of offense that has the Blueshirts a little jittery about their fortunes this season.
0:27
Igor Shesterkin robs Avalanche with save
Igor Shesterkin robs Avalanche with save
Beyond panicked
Nashville Predators
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were the first team to blink this season. After amassing a .435 points percentage through 23 games, president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford told Postmedia on Tuesday that the Canucks need to get younger and confirmed that they were considering trades for veteran pending free agents like Evander Kane.
“Use whatever word people like, whether it’s somewhat of a rebuild, not a full blown rebuild, but a rebuild-retool, whatever,” Rutherford said. “It’s the position we’ve been in since the J.T. Miller trade [last season].”
Are the Predators next? GM Barry Trotz told ESPN this week that the team’s next seven games will determine his approach to the rest of their season. He’s receiving calls from other teams about his veteran players. He has had talks with their agents about what could be down the road. They’re not open for business yet, but with a .364 points percentage after 22 games, how long before that happens?
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