MLB Power Rankings: Guardians rise, Mets and Tigers fall ahead of playoffs
We’re down to the final days of the 2025 regular season and in for some exciting baseball, as there are still quite a number of teams that have something to play for — including a few who are fighting tooth and nail for their postseason lives.
The Tigers, Guardians, Mets, Reds and Diamondbacks fall into that category — and all moved significantly in our final power rankings of the season. After holding a 12½-game lead over Cleveland as recently as Aug. 25, Detroit is now a game behind the Guardians, who sit atop the AL Central after beating the Tigers Tuesday and Wednesday following what might be one of the greatest comebacks/collapses of all time over the final month of the season.
There’s a similar sentiment around the Mets, who hold a slight one-game lead over Cincinnati and Arizona for the final wild-card spot as a late losing skid highlighted their second-half woes and put their playoff hopes on the line.
Which clubs will get to keep playing into October? And which will watch their playoff aspirations come to an end?
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 25 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 96-63
Previous ranking: 1
Getting healthy on the mound is the top priority for the Brewers heading into the postseason as Jose Quintana and Brandon Woodruff are the latest pitchers to go down. With Trevor Megill, Logan Henderson and DL Hall also on the mend, it’s a good thing the Brewers have a bye and go straight to the division series. That extra time could be a difference-maker. As it stands now, it’s anyone’s guess what the roster will look like when Milwaukee hosts its first playoff game on Oct. 4, but it’s safe to say the Brewers will get at least a few of the above arms back for playoff baseball. They’ll be needed. — Rogers
Record: 93-65
Previous ranking: 2
Losing Zack Wheeler for the season was a cruel gut punch, but the Phillies’ rotation remains stout with Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo leading the charge. On the position player side, Alec Bohm returned from the injured list Sunday and Trea Turner could be activated this weekend. With Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper anchoring the lineup, and closer Jhoan Duran nailing down the ninth inning, the Phillies are a real World Series contender even without Wheeler. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 4
Shohei Ohtani reached unchartered territory in his 14th and final regular-season start Tuesday, pitching six innings while keeping the Diamondbacks scoreless. Over his past four starts, Ohtani has given up only one run in 19⅔ innings, scattering 10 hits, issuing four walks and striking out a whopping 27 batters. He is one of several Dodgers starters pitching really well heading into the playoffs. The bullpen? That’s a completely different story. After Ohtani departed Tuesday, three relievers combined to give up five runs. The Dodgers wound up losing. They’re clearly willing to stretch Ohtani a little longer, but he can’t pitch all nine innings. — Gonzalez
Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 3
The Blue Jays were the first AL team to clinch a playoff spot, but they have the misfortune of being in the same division as the team with the second-best record in the AL. As a result, winning their first division title in a decade requires a strong finish against the Red Sox and Rays to fend off the Yankees with the Jays playing without Bo Bichette (knee) and Chris Bassitt (back). Toronto activated outfielder Anthony Santander from the IL on Tuesday for the final push, designating former AL Cy Young Award finalist Alek Manoah for assignment. The pressure is on to avoid the wild-card round. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 8
The Mariners are becoming a fashionable pick for October. They’re hot and could be starting to peak on the mound, where they’ve actually underachieved this season. Not lately though. The pitching staff was fantastic during a road sweep of the Astros as George Kirby and Bryan Woo are rounding into form — that is until Woo suffered a pectoral injury. The team says he could still pitch in October as treatment continues.
Regardless, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, who has given up only one run in his last 12 innings, have also been good. Seattle has plenty of options on the mound, and that includes in the bullpen, where Andres Munoz has been stellar. The Mariners feature the AL home run king in Cal Raleigh, but it’s their pitching staff that will lead them in the postseason. — Rogers
Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 7
The Yankees clinched their postseason spot Monday. Whether they catch Toronto for the AL East title — and subsequently earn a bye to the NLDS — or settle for a wild-card spot, one question remains: Who would start a Game 3 after Max Fried and Carlos Rodon? The candidates are Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year; Cam Schlittler, who has impressed as a rookie this season; and Will Warren, who has made 32 starts. Gil and Schlittler are the favorites. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 5
A perfect storm has led to the Cubs’ longest losing skid of the season — coming right after a sweep of Pittsburgh clinched a playoff berth. Their subsequent opponents, the Reds and Mets, are playing desperate baseball in an attempt to get into the postseason themselves, leading to Cincinnati sweeping a four-game series against Chicago and New York taking the first of a three-game series.
The big concern for next week is Cade Horton. He left Tuesday’s start against the Mets because of some back/rib soreness after being ill all weekend. If it’s his last time on the mound until the postseason — assuming he’s healthy — he’ll have thrown a total of 29 pitches in two weeks, not exactly the sharpest way to enter the postseason. Offensively, the Cubs came out of their slumber against New York, putting up seven runs Tuesday, as they try to build momentum toward October. — Rogers
Record: 87-72
Previous ranking: 9
The Padres celebrated a return to the postseason after defeating the Brewers on Monday. They then beat the Brewers again Tuesday and suddenly began eyeing the NL West title once more. By that point, they trailed the Dodgers by only 1½ games. L.A. holds the tiebreaker and will also finish the season in Seattle. The Padres will finish at home against the Diamondbacks. For the Padres, winning the division would mean hosting the wild-card round at Petco Park, where they’re 49-29 this season (compared to just 38-43 on the road). It’s a big deal. — Gonzalez
Record: 87-71
Previous ranking: 10
Boston’s top three starting pitchers — Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito — give the team a real chance in a three-game wild-card series against anybody, but they need to get there first. For that to happen, the offense needs to find some life without Roman Anthony. The lineup has struggled since Anthony landed on the IL on Sept. 3 because of an oblique strain, averaging 4.7 runs in 17 games without him, but has started to pick up again more recently. The Red Sox are 9-8 in that span. — Castillo
Record: 86-72
Previous ranking: 14
The Guardians’ surge feels like a movie. On Sept. 4, they were 11 games out in the AL Central. Since then, they’ve won 17 of 19 games, the last two against the division-rival Tigers, defeating Tarik Skubal to tie them on Tuesday and cruising behind Tanner Bibee to victory on Wednesday to jump into first place for the first time since April 22. Longtime Cleveland ace Shane Bieber now pitches in Toronto while lights-out closer Emmanuel Clase is on paid leave amid a gambling probe, and yet the Guardians’ pitching staff holds a major league-best 1.58 ERA since Sept. 5. The Mariners are the only other team that even holds an ERA under 3.00. — Gonzalez
Record: 85-73
Previous ranking: 6
You probably know the numbers by now, but we might as well hash them: The Tigers held a 14-game lead in the AL Central on July 8, an 11½-game lead on Aug. 23 and a 9½-game lead on Sept. 10. At the end of last week, they still led the Guardians by a very comfortable 6½ games. Then, on Tuesday night, the Tigers fell to a surging Cleveland team despite having Tarik Skubal on the mound and found themselves not leading the division for the first time since April. It was their seventh loss in a row. Their eighth followed roughly 24 hours later. An unbelievable collapse, to say the least. — Gonzalez
Record: 84-74
Previous ranking: 11
The last week has not been kind to the Astros, especially at the plate, where they ranked near the bottom of the majors in OPS. It included three games at home against Seattle — all losses — in which they scored seven total runs. Add just a single tally in their series opener loss against the A’s on Tuesday and you can see why Houston is in danger of losing the division or even a postseason berth. The loss — again — of Yordan Alvarez obviously hurts. And perhaps the return of Isaac Paredes will give the Astros a boost, though it hasn’t yet. They need a hot finish from players such as Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena to extend their playoff streak to nine years. — Rogers
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 17
A four-game sweep of the Cubs over the weekend vaulted the Reds into the playoff picture, but they need to finish the job to make their first postseason appearance since 2020 and first in a full season since 2013. They also hold the tiebreaker with the Mets, so all Cincinnati has to do is match New York in the standings. It has become clear that the starting staff is the driving force behind anything good that happens in Cincinnati. Hunter Greene has been fantastic, as has Andrew Abbott. But despite their surge, the Reds remain just an average team at the plate, ranking in the bottom third in key offensive categories over the past couple of weeks. Some timely home runs have helped their cause. — Rogers
Record: 81-77
Previous ranking: 13
The Mets had the best record in baseball on June 13. Since then, they’ve had one of the worst — bad enough to enter the final week of the season on the edge of a historic collapse. Their fate could ultimately come down to the three rookie right-handers in their starting rotation. The Mets didn’t expect to need Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness forced the hand of president of baseball operations David Stearns. Now, the Mets are counting on them this week to help secure a spot in October. — Castillo
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 15
The wild, nausea-inducing roller-coaster ride that is this 2025 Diamondbacks season continues. Since the start of August alone, the team has navigated three losing streaks of three or more games but also eight winning streaks of three or more games. Arizona sealed its latest one Tuesday night, when it overcame a four-run deficit against the division-rival Dodgers and remained just one game back of the Mets for the final wild-card spot. That the D-backs are even at this point, in a year when they traded two of their best hitters and one of their best starters at the trade deadline, is wild. — Gonzalez
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 12
A late win streak was followed by a later losing skid, eliminating the 2023 champs from the postseason for a second consecutive season. On the docket for Rangers brass is the future of manager Bruce Bochy and how to get more out of their inconsistent offense. That has now been a two-year question, though recent injuries to Marcus Semien and Corey Seager didn’t help. Neither was having a fantastic year anyway. As they age, the team needs new leaders at the plate. Wyatt Langford has looked the part at times. At 23 years old, he should be the next Rangers star. After an offensive evaluation is completed, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s winter goal will undoubtedly be to improve their run scoring. — Rogers
Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants blew a five-run lead against St. Louis on Tuesday and were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention by the end of it. It was only 11 days prior that they stood a half-game behind the Mets for the final NL wild-card spot. San Francisco then lost nine of 11 games to miss out on the playoffs for a fourth straight year — despite being 19-12 by the end of April and acquiring Rafael Devers in the middle of June. “This year is probably the most frustrating,” Giants ace Logan Webb told reporters. “No offense to the teams we’ve had before, but this is the most talented team I’ve been on.” — Gonzalez
Record: 79-79
Previous ranking: 18
The Royals won their third consecutive game on Sept. 6 and found themselves only one game back of the final wild-card spot. They needed a hot stretch to give themselves a chance over the final couple of weeks. Instead, they lost six of their next seven, falling seven games back and setting themselves up for what occurred Tuesday: being mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, moments before a series opener against the Angels. The Royals still have a chance at a second consecutive winning record, but they entered 2025 with far bigger expectations than that following their 2024 postseason run. — Gonzalez
Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 19
The Rays’ sale to a group led by Jacksonville real estate developer Patrick Zalupski reached another checkpoint Monday when MLB’s owners unanimously approved the transaction. Atop the new ownership group’s to-do list will be securing an agreement for a new ballpark. That will be the question hovering over the Rays this offseason — assuming the sale will be finalized — before they move back into Tropicana Field for 2026. — Castillo
Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 20
Longtime executive John Mozeliak is set to say goodbye after this weekend, handing the keys over to new Cardinals decision-maker Chaim Bloom. His first order of business could be deciding the fate of manager Oliver Marmol, who deserves some credit for holding the team together during a stated transition year. Next, Bloom needs to rebuild the pitching staff beyond Sonny Gray, who is signed for one more season. Youngsters Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy have received valuable growth time this year while the team will say goodbye to soon-to-be free agent Miles Mikolas. The bullpen also needs some work. Bloom has plenty on his plate in his first offseason in charge. — Rogers
Record: 75-84
Previous ranking: 23
The 2025 season was a nightmare littered with injuries and underperformance for the Braves, a club that entered the year with World Series expectations. While most major players on the roster are under team control through 2026, one prominent figure is considering moving on: manager Brian Snitker. The 69-year-old skipper, whose contract expires after this season, has said he is considering retiring. If he does, Snitker’s 10-season run would conclude with seven postseason appearances and a World Series title in 2021. — Castillo
Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 24
The Marlins entered Game No. 158 on Wednesday still mathematically in postseason contention. The chances are remote, but staying alive this late is a win for an organization attempting to produce a consistent contender for the first time in franchise history. Never have the Marlins, despite two World Series titles in their 33-year history, reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons. They’re slowly stacking the building blocks. And, considering they moved Sandy Alcantara‘s start back to face the Mets this weekend, Miami is thirsting to play spoiler. — Castillo
Record: 75-83
Previous ranking: 21
All in all, it’s going to be a successful year for the A’s, who blew past their preseason over/under win total for the season this week. They boast the likely Rookie of the Year in Nick Kurtz and saw positive seasons from several offensive players not named Brent Rooker or Lawrence Butler, with the latter having a quiet season at the plate. Left fielder Tyler Soderstrom and catcher Shea Langeliers count as those success stories.
On the other hand, the pitching staff will finish in the bottom five of the majors in ERA — the hitter-friendly park in Sacramento didn’t help. Perhaps with a year under their belt there, the front office will have a better understanding of what kinds of arms might be successful until the team moves to Las Vegas. That should be their sole focus this winter. — Rogers
Record: 74-84
Previous ranking: 22
Adley Rutschman‘s 2025 season is atop the list of the disappointments in a lost season for the Orioles. The two-time All-Star catcher continued his regression from last year and landed on the IL for two long stints because of oblique strains on each side. Baltimore activated him Monday for the season’s final six games. It could be his final week in an Orioles uniform; with Samuel Basallo‘s emergence — and contract extension — people around baseball wonder if Baltimore will look to trade Rutschman this offseason. — Castillo
Record: 69-89
Previous ranking: 27
Bubba Chandler is getting his feet wet during garbage time for the Pirates, and that could pay dividends for them next season. Add the return of Jared Jones early next year and Pittsburgh once again looks formidable on the mound. But what will general manager Ben Cherington do to help his offense? It’s a yearly question for the Pirates, as they are set to finish last in run scoring after ranking 24th the previous season. They’re going in the wrong direction. Their third baseman are last in OPS and their catchers aren’t much better. Improvements across the board are needed. — Rogers
Record: 71-87
Previous ranking: 26
The Angels again need to find some productive pitchers this offseason, as they rank near the bottom of the majors in ERA this season. It seems to be a yearly thing, as they ranked 26th in that category in 2024 and 23rd in 2023. Their starting staff has mostly been the culprit, but change is in the air as Kyle Hendricks is almost assuredly retiring while Tyler Anderson is set to become a free agent. One bright spot has been closer Kenley Jansen, who is 28-of-29 in save opportunities. But if a 37-year-old closer on a team out of contention is your lone bright spot, you probably have bigger problems. That’s the case for the Angels heading into the winter. — Rogers
Record: 68-90
Previous ranking: 25
It was only two years ago that the Twins ended a prolonged postseason winless drought and advanced past the wild-card round in a thrilling 2023 season. Now, it seems like two decades ago. The 2025 season was a miserable one for the Twins’ faithful, punctuated by a trade-deadline selloff that felt worse only a couple weeks later when the Pohlad family announced it would maintain ownership of the franchise, angering a fan base that clamored for a replacement who would spend more money. Byron Buxton had a really nice year and Joe Ryan was not traded. Outside of that, there isn’t much to cling to in Minneapolis these days. — Gonzalez
Record: 58-100
Previous ranking: 28
The bar for progress was obviously low after the White Sox set the modern-day record for losses last year, but the franchise nonetheless took some steps forward this season. They played a more competitive brand of baseball, particularly after the All-Star break. Prospects such as Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth showed encouraging signs. Journeymen pitchers such as Shane Smith, Mike Vasil and Jordan Leasure found success. They still have a long way to go, but the White Sox are in a better position than they were at this time last year. That’s … something, at least. — Gonzalez
Record: 65-94
Previous ranking: 29
Pressing questions, from the top down, face the Nationals this offseason after they took a substantial step back in 2025. One was answered this week when the organization decided to hire Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Tobino to run its baseball operations department as Mike Rizzo’s replacement.
Next up: naming a manager. Looming in the backdrop is a more critical matter: Will ownership decide to sell again? If not, will it invest the necessary resources — not just in free agency but in other departments — to build another winner? And then there’s also the question about the future of their local television deal. The Nationals have some young talent — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams have all been All-Stars — but this will effectively be a soft reset in Washington. — Castillo
Record: 43-115
Previous ranking: 30
Only six teams have ever finished a season with a run differential below minus-400, and all of them played before the 21st century. The Rockies are currently on pace to join them. They’ve won only four of 21 games in September and currently sport a run differential of minus-412. The modern-day record is minus-345, set by the 1932 Boston Red Sox. And though the Rockies won’t lose as many games as last year’s White Sox, they’ll probably be outscored by 100-plus more runs than Chicago was. How this gets fixed is anybody’s guess. — Gonzalez
The final weekend of the MLB season is here — and there’s still plenty to play for!
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers also taking home the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title, and the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their fifth straight NL West title on Thursday. The New York Mets beat the Marlins on Saturday and, with the Cincinnati Reds playing on the Brewers later Saturday night, they’re (momentarily, at least) back in the lead in the NL wild-card race.
In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a playoff spot and the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners joined them days later. While the Detroit Tigers clinched a postseason spot Saturday, in one the biggest twists of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in the AL wild-card race and for the AL Central title.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Sept. 13 and followed up by securing their third straight NL Central title. They earned a bye in the first round and are playing for the NL’s overall No. 1 seed.
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sept. 14. With a win the following night, Philadelphia clinched the NL East title for the second straight year. On Wednesday, the Phils beat the Marlins to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NLDS.
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Sept. 17 and will be making their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018. With a win on Saturday, they clinched home-field advantage in their wild-card series with the Padres.
With a win Thursday over the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers clinched the NL West title for the 12th time in the past 13 years. They will be the No. 3 seed in the NL and host the No. 6 seed in the wild-card series.
The Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a postseason berth with a with over the Royals on Sept. 21. They are currently tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Padres clinched their fourth postseason trip in six years with a walk-off win over the Brewers on Monday. They will travel to Chicago to meet the Cubs in the wild-card series.
The Yankees became the second AL team to clinch a playoff spot with a walk-off win over the White Sox on Tuesday. They are currently tied with the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Mariners clinched their first postseason appearance since 2022 on Tuesday and, with a 9-2 win on Wednesday, won their first AL West crown since 2001. They earned a bye in the first round.
With a win against the Tigers on Friday, Boston clinched an AL Wild Card berth. They will be the road team in one wild-card series.
With a win in Boston on Saturday, Detroit clinched at least an AL Wild Card berth. They are still in play to win the AL Central.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
Upcoming clinch possibilities:
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The Guardians can clinch today with a win OR a loss by the Astros
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The Brewers can clinch the NL’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason today with a win OR a loss by the Phillies
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The Blue Jays can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win OR a loss by the Yankees
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The Yankees can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win AND a loss by the Blue Jays
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Tigers at (3) Guardians, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Tigers/Guardians vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Reds at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Reds/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Tiebreaker scenarios
AL East teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Win tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians
New York Yankees
Win tiebreaker: Mariners
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Guardians, Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Guardians, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers
AL Central teams
Cleveland Guardians
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Tigers, Yankees, Blue Jays
Lose tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Win tiebreaker: Red Sox, Astros
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Mariners
AL West teams
Seattle Mariners
Win tiebreaker: Tigers, Guardians, Red Sox
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Yankees
Houston Astros
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Red Sox, Tigers
NL East teams
Philadelphia Phillies
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers
New York Mets
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Reds
NL Central teams
Milwaukee Brewers
Win tiebreaker: Phillies
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
Chicago Cubs
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Cincinnati Reds
Win tiebreaker: Mets
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
NL West teams
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win tiebreaker: Padres
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers, Cubs, Phillies
San Diego Padres
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Dodgers
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays are trying to hold for the AL’s No. 1 seed and division title. While Toronto has the tiebreaker in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both headed to the postseason regardless. And the Seattle Mariners separated themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race to win their first division crown since 2001. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are going toe-to-toe with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds battling for the final playoff spot, with the Dodgers (who won the division) and Padres headed to the postseason from the NL West.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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Bill Connelly
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 18 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
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