What if Ohtani WAS on that plane to Toronto? Inside an alternate World Series universe
-
Bradford Doolittle
Close
Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
-
David Schoenfield
Close
David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
When the 2025 World Series starts Friday night in Toronto, Shohei Ohtani will step to the plate for the first at-bat of the Fall Classic wearing the Los Angeles Dodgers uniform we’ve all become accustomed to seeing him in over the past two MLB seasons.
But there is another world, one not as far-fetched as you might think, where Ohtani could instead be toeing the rubber for Game 1 — and coming up to bat in the bottom of the first inning — for the Toronto Blue Jays instead.
Similarly, Roki Sasaki has changed Los Angeles’ postseason by emerging as the flamethrowing closer the Dodgers desperately needed to solidify a shaky bullpen this month. But in another world, also not that far removed, Sasaki could be playing the part of rookie sensation for the Blue Jays instead of facing them with games on the line.
How close were Ohtani and Sasaki to picking the Blue Jays over the Dodgers as their much-hyped free agent decisions played out? How did the two tense decision days — one that turned the entire internet into international flight trackers — go down? How good would the Blue Jays have been the past two seasons with Ohtani on their roster? And what would the Dodgers have done to counter if they had lost out on baseball’s two-way superstar?
Let’s dig in.
Jump to:
Ohtani timeline | Sasaki timeline | Jays with Ohtani | Dodgers’ Plan B?
Timeline of the Ohtani, Blue Jays deal that never happened
The jokes are now everywhere: Hey, Shohei Ohtani is finally getting on a plane to Toronto. The Dodgers actually played in Toronto in April 2024, but we get it: There was that frenzied Friday in December 2023 when everybody thought Ohtani was on a plane headed to Toronto to sign with the Blue Jays.
What happened that day, Friday, Dec. 8? First, a user on a social media site posted that Thursday evening that a private jet — tail number N616RH — was scheduled to fly from Southern California to Toronto on Friday morning. Somebody else discovered the same jet had been in Oakland when Ohtani had met with the San Francisco Giants. A baseball writer pointed out that Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Angels six years before had come on … Dec. 8.
It was all adding up. The Dodgers Nation fan site published a report saying Ohtani had chosen the Blue Jays. Then MLB Network reported that Ohtani was traveling to Toronto. With N616RH in the air, fans began assembling at the private terminal at Toronto’s Pearson Airport.
But it wasn’t Ohtani on the plane. It was “Shark Tank” judge Robert Herjavec. On Saturday, Ohtani posted his decision on Instagram: “I have decided to choose the Dodgers as my next team.” The rest is history.
Timeline of the Sasaki, Blue Jays deal that also never happened
Upon announcing he would be coming to the majors from Japan early in the 2024-25 offseason, Roki Sasaki immediately became the most coveted free agent available, thanks to his immense talent and the team-friendly conditions of his contract.
After meeting with several teams, Sasaki’s camp revealed that the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers and Giants had all been told they were out of the running — leaving three suitors as finalists: the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers and, surprisingly, the Blue Jays.
In the final days leading up to the decision, Sasaki reportedly visited Toronto and the Jays suddenly appeared to be a real player in what had previously seemed to be a race between the two NL West teams vying for his services.
The Blue Jays’ flames were further fanned when reports came out Jan. 17 that the Padres were also out, meaning Sasaki’s decision — much like Ohtani’s an offseason earlier — would come down to Los Angeles and Toronto. The Blue Jays even made a deal with the Cleveland Guardians taking on outfielder Myles Straw, and the $13.8 million remaining on Straw’s contract, to acquire an additional $2 million in international bonus space — presumably to use on Sasaki.
Then that evening — just as Ohtani had done 13 months prior — Sasaki announced via Instagram that he would be joining the Dodgers, and Toronto was left at the doorstep once again.
Simulating the last two seasons with Ohtani in Toronto
There are a lot of choices to make when reimagining baseball history, especially when you’re talking about a transaction at the top of the hierarchy such as when Ohtani chose the Dodgers.
Once that domino fell, it set off a chain reaction that worked its way through most if not all of the majors. You can’t simply put the domino back upright, push it down the opposite direction and see how things follow.
So we’ll make a few choices, run some simulations and see where we are.
Dodgers: The L.A. part of this is more straightforward. Removing Ohtani from their mix the last two seasons would hurt them, because he produces at a level few other players can approach. But it’s not as if the Dodgers would have folded up their checkbook and gone home. They would have reallocated some portion of the funds they allotted for Ohtani to other players (see Dave’s possibilities in the next section).
For the sake of coming up with a revised Dodgers baseline, it’s better to avoid trying to guess how the Dodgers might have spent the money.
So let’s use a standard instead. The Dodgers’ competitive balance tax hit for Ohtani, per Cot’s Contracts, is estimated at $46 million per season. There’s a premium in there because of Ohtani’s stature — it’s actually hard to find a player to spend that much on — so let’s say they would have reallocated $40 million in terms of their luxury tax calculation to other resources. If we stick with the old standard of an average win purchased in free agency being valued at $8 million, we can estimate that the production from Dodgers’ Plan B player(s) would have been worth about five wins per season over the last two campaigns.
Per Baseball Reference, Ohtani produced 9.2 bWAR in 2024 for his work as a DH and 7.7 in 2025 for his pitching and hitting. So we’re going to reduce the Dodgers’ baseline by 4.2 wins in 2024 and 2.7 in 2025. My end-of-season simple power rating for L.A. in 2024 was 95.9, so we’ll take that down to 91.7. In 2025, I had them at 92.9, so we’re down to 90.2. These won’t be the precise numbers used in the simulations, as we’ve got to make sure the distribution of wins across the majors totals up to the 2,430 wins at stake in a big league season, but these numbers are close.
Blue Jays: The Toronto adjustment is a little more complicated in that we actually know what they did after they failed to land Ohtani. What we don’t know is what moves would not have occurred had they signed him, or the contract he ultimately would have gotten from Toronto. Let’s start with the financial part.
Luckily, we had Jeff Passan and Alden Gonzalez on the case, so we know that Ohtani reportedly presented other teams, including the Blue Jays, with the same terms he gave to the Dodgers and that Toronto agreed to them. So we can use that same $46 million as Toronto’s CBT number on the Jays’ balance sheet, though the ramifications for the Jays in that regard are different because of their lower overall payroll.
After Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, the Blue Jays signed three veteran free agent hitters: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (two years, $15 million), Kevin Kiermaier (one year, $10.5 million) and Justin Turner (one year, $13 million). The 2024 payout for those three was a combined $38.5 million, and it would take some additional belt tightening to get to Ohtani’s salary. The Jays’ Opening Day payroll was about $13 million over the first CBT threshold and $7 million below the second. So they could ax this trio, drop Ohtani into the payroll, and still likely stay under the second threshold, if that was a goal.
Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and Turner posted a combined 4.5 bWAR between them, and frankly, reconfiguring the Toronto depth chart to absorb their absences isn’t that hard. The difference between their production and Ohtani’s is a hefty 4.7 bWAR, so we’ll add that to Toronto’s 2024 baseline. Alas, the Jays weren’t very good in 2024, so adding that figure to their end-of-season power ranking (70.9) takes them up to only 75.6.
Working Ohtani’s $46 million onto Toronto’s 2025 payroll is more challenging. According to Cot’s, Toronto’s end-of-season CBT payroll was $28 million over the first threshold and $8 million over the second. Certainly, the Blue Jays would not have signed Anthony Santander if they had Ohtani in hand and, perhaps, knowing Ohtani could also pitch for them in 2025, perhaps they would not have sprung for Max Scherzer.
Even so, because Santander’s deal involved so much deferred money, we’re still talking about a tax payroll that’s something like another $17 million higher even after we drop Scherzer and Santander. But, hey, it’s not our money, so let’s do it. For the sake of this exercise, we won’t have Toronto pursue Sasaki after Ohtani becomes a Blue Jay.
There are other possible consequences that, for now, we’ll ignore. First of all, would the Blue Jays have been able to be as aggressive in extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal if they knew Ohtani had the DH spot locked up for the next decade? Would George Springer‘s bounce-back season been harmed by having to spend more time in the field? Worth thinking about.
But we’ll stick with the straightforward adjustments. Together, Scherzer (0.2 bWAR) and Santander (minus-1.0) were a net drag on the Blue Jays’ bottom line. Replacing them with Ohtani is a huge gain, though we’re cheating a bit by not doing more of a playing time redistribution. Scherzer was limited to 85 innings during the season, but Ohtani logged only 47. But Ohtani rolled up 727 plate appearances, dwarfing Santander’s 221. In other words, Ohtani would have also usurped at-bats from players such as Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider, just to start.
We’ll keep it simple and just add Ohtani’s 7.7 2025 bWAR to the Blue Jays’ bottom line. Toronto’s power rating was 90.1 at the end of the season, so we’re at an elite 97.8. Now we’re getting somewhere.
Let’s sim that out and see what happens.
2024: The actual Blue Jays went 74-88 with a run differential that suggested their record was in lockstep with their quality of play. The true talent level of the team was better than that, with or without Ohtani. Toronto won 89 games in 2023 and made the postseason. They’re in the World Series this year. Sometimes decent teams have bad seasons — take heart, Orioles fans! — and that was Toronto in 2024.
With Ohtani on board in our what-if world, the Blue Jays won the World Series in just three of 10,000 simulations. Maybe having Ohtani’s historic production on the roster would have boosted the rest of the squad, but we can’t know that for sure. They did make the playoffs about 7% of the time, so it was less hopeless than real life. Still, even with Ohtani, the 2024 Jays would have entered that offseason believing they had work to do.
As for the Dodgers, there is nowhere to go but down since, after all, they won the World Series. In the no-Ohtani world, the Dodgers’ reduced baseline got them into the playoffs in 73% of the sims. That seems low, but dropping them to a 90-win team or so puts them on a crowded tier in the big league landscape. The Dodgers still made the World Series 13% of the time and won the title 7% of the time, behind the now-heavily-favored Yankees (24%), Phillies and Astros (both 8%).
Finally, in our 10,000 resimulations of the 2024 season, the Dodgers played the Blue Jays in the World Series four times. Los Angeles won all four showdowns.
2025: One factor is Ohtani’s innings workload as it might have been for Toronto. We’re leaving his 7.7 bWAR as is, but you have to think the Blue Jays might have been somewhat more aggressive in ramping up his innings count, simply because they lack the ridiculous depth of the Dodgers’ staff. Still, adding his two-way punch to the roster and performance of the 2025 Blue Jays gives Toronto easily the top-rated baseline in our resimulated campaign.
That shows up in the end-of-season probabilities and would render Toronto as a solid favorite if it did end up meeting the Ohtani-less Dodgers in the World Series. Because L.A.’s regular season was, for the Dodgers, a bit lackluster, losing Ohtani doesn’t really move them down a tier as it did in the 2024 reimagining. But it certainly doesn’t help.
We can do a little bit more in direct comparison with the current season. The Blue Jays made the postseason in 92% of the simulations. In the actual postseason, Toronto started off with an 11% shot at winning it all, using this system of power rankings, behind Milwaukee and New York. With Ohtani, they won an MLB-high 15% of the simulations. Meanwhile, the Dodgers made the playoffs 71% of the time, similar to the 2024 resimulation, and won the Series around 6% of the time.
This method isn’t entirely fair to the 2025 Dodgers, whose true talent level is well above what they did in the regular season. That would be better reflected if I had used projections rather than the actual final standings. But the Dodgers did what they did, so don’t blame me. We’re seeing that true talent level in action this October.
As you expect, a Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series cropped up way more often in the 2025 sims — 277 times, altogether. In those matchups, the Blue Jays went 171-106 (61.7%). This is roughly the polar opposite of most of the Dodgers-favored World Series odds that are circulating right now. In my system, the reversal is almost exact: The Dodgers are winning 60.9% of the sims in most post-LCS analysis.
So if you want to know how different a Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series would look had Shohei been on that plane, that’s the bottom line: Exactly the opposite.
Five moves the Dodgers could have made if they didn’t land Ohtani
But what if Ohtani had been on that plane? While Brad’s simulations are best served by not playing the what-if game, we know L.A. would have done something — and knowing the Dodgers, likely something big. What might the Dodgers’ 2024-25 offseason have looked like without Ohtani? Where might that money have gone?
In our alternate universe, we have to remember how the 2023 season ended for the Dodgers: with the Diamondbacks sweeping the Dodgers in the NLDS after the Dodgers started an injured Clayton Kershaw (who got one out and allowed six runs); started Bobby Miller (who got five outs and allowed three runs); and started Lance Lynn (who had led the majors with 44 home runs allowed, got eight outs and allowed four home runs in the third inning).
The focus was on starting pitching, which is why after signing Ohtani the Dodgers traded for Tyler Glasnow and then signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Without Ohtani, however, here are five other moves that would have made sense (all these players were involved in transactions that happened after Dec. 9, 2024):
1. Trade for Dylan Cease
What really happened: The Padres acquired Cease from the Chicago White Sox
One reason the Dodgers signed Ohtani and Yamamoto was they were admittedly getting tired of trading prospects. Until this 2023-24 offseason, they had rarely dipped into the big-money free agency in the Andrew Friedman era (Freddie Freeman and Trevor Bauer had been the only $100 million free agents the Dodgers had signed).
They might have made an exception to trade for Cease. He’s the kind of pitcher the Dodgers love, with a big power arm. More importantly, coming off all the Dodgers’ injuries in 2023, Cease had made 32 starts in 2021, 32 in 2022 and 33 in 2023. Corbin Burnes was also traded after Ohtani had signed, but Cease had two years of control left versus just one for Burnes. Chris Sale also went from the Boston Red Sox to the Atlanta Braves and went on to win the Cy Young Award, but his proneness to injury would have scared off the Dodgers.
2. Sign Blake Snell — a year early
What really happened: Snell signed with the Giants for two years, $62 million
Snell was coming off a Cy Young Award with the Padres in 2023, his second, and was looking for a mega-contract. ESPN predicted six years and $150 million; MLB Trade Rumors predicted seven years and $200 million. The Philadelphia Phillies, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers were considered the favorites to sign him, with many other teams in the mix.
That big offer never arrived, with teams worried about Snell’s inconsistency. His free agency lingered deep into spring training until he finally signed with the Giants just 10 days before the start of the season. His deal included an opt-out, which he exercised after a scintillating stretch run with the Giants (1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts). This time, the Dodgers decided they wanted him, and they signed him after the 2024 season.
3. Sign Josh Hader
What really happened: Hader signed with the Houston Astros for five years, $95 million
Might the Dodgers have gone after a reliever? The bullpen had been pretty good in 2023, ranking third in the majors in ERA, with Evan Phillips (2.05 ERA, 24 saves) and Brusdar Graterol (1.20 ERA, seven saves) leading the way. But the Dodgers had also relied on castoffs such as Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller, so you could argue that an elite closer like Hader was a good fit. Plus, as the Dodgers showed in the 2024-25 offseason after spending $72 million on Tanner Scott, they are willing to spend big money on a closer.
4. Sign Jung Hoo Lee
What really happened: Lee signed with Giants for six years, $113 million
Lee was one of the top outfielders available in free agency, a star in Korea who projected as a leadoff hitter with a high average and good defense in center field. The Dodgers’ outfield in 2023 included David Peralta, who was 35, and James Outman, who had kind of a fluky good rookie season. The Dodgers did end up signing Teoscar Hernandez to a one-year deal, but when Mookie Betts initially moved to shortstop and Outman predictably floundered, they were playing Jason Heyward and had to trade for Tommy Edman. Lee would have been a fit for center field, although he hasn’t been as good as expected with the Giants, who overpaid by some $40 million-$50 million compared with the initial predictions, so maybe the Dodgers dodged a bad signing here.
5. Sign Matt Chapman
What really happened: Chapman signed with Giants for three years, $54 million
Max Muncy was coming off a 36-homer season in 2023, but he had hit .196 in 2022 and .212 in 2023. Plus, there is no Ohtani here, so the Dodgers could have signed Chapman and moved Muncy to the DH role or maybe even to second base, where Muncy had played a lot from 2019 to 2022 and was a position that had been a problem for the Dodgers in 2023 (Miguel Vargas started the most games there, with Betts eventually starting by the end of the season).
Following the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades wanted to make sure reporters understood the most integral part of the ranking process.
“We’ve watched the games,” he said on the weekly teleconference. “Let me repeat that; we watch the games.”
That won’t make it easier to decide who should be No. 2 on Tuesday night: Indiana, which escaped a 3-6 Penn State team, or Texas A&M, which soundly beat a CFP top-25 team in Mizzou. A deeper dive into the statistics and résumés of both undefeated teams — plus the context of why the group ranked them No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, last week — will factor into their discussions. It might be a bigger debate than how far No. 7 BYU should fall this week after a 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech.
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do when it reveals its second of six rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: Ohio State earned its fourth Big Ten road win of the season Saturday, albeit against a 2-8 Purdue team that hasn’t won since Sept. 6 against Southern Illinois. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked No. 33 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics, but No. 1 in game control and No. 3 in strength of record. “So it was certainly close [between Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M], but when we looked at film, and we’re blessed to have committee members and coaches that do a lot of film work, we just felt like Ohio State had a slight edge when we think about offensive line play and then a slight edge defensively,” Rhoades said after the first ranking release Tuesday. “That was really the outcome. Ohio State has some, I’m going to call them explosive players, that probably stood out as well.”
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes below Indiana after the Hoosiers were fortunate to escape Penn State with a win Saturday, but undefeated Texas A&M continues to make a case for the top spot. The Aggies, who entered the week ranked No. 1 in strength of record, earned another CFP top-25 win at Mizzou on Saturday.
Need to know: Ohio State entered Week 11 with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (99.2%), the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (41.1%) and the best chance to win it all (27%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. It’s the only CFP top-25 team left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The road win against Penn State isn’t going to help the Hoosiers’ résumé much, but they narrowly avoided putting their first-round bye in jeopardy. Indiana should remain safely in the top four, thanks to a double-digit road win against No. 9 Oregon and another CFP top-25 win at Iowa. The Hoosiers beat two teams that were in a nailbiter Saturday before Oregon won on a game-winning field goal at Iowa. Penn State and Iowa are the only opponents Indiana hasn’t defeated by double digits. The historic 63-10 win against 6-3 Illinois is another respectable résumé booster, even though it’s not against a CFP top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: Texas A&M continues to make a push to move up after its 38-17 win at Mizzou on Saturday. The Aggies entered Week 11 ranked higher than Indiana in strength of schedule and strength of record.
Need to know: Both of Indiana’s remaining opponents — Wisconsin and Purdue — have six losses. The Hoosiers entered Week 11 with the best chance in the Big Ten to reach the conference championship game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It’s on a Friday night against an in-state rival — and Indiana still has at least a 97% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be here: With Saturday’s win at Mizzou, the Aggies have won three straight SEC road games to go along with their Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame. The committee will discuss, though, that Missouri was without injured starting quarterback Beau Pribula, and the Aggies easily handled freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who was making his first start. Texas A&M entered Week 11 ranked No. 18 in defensive efficiency, behind Ohio State (No. 3) and Indiana (No. 2), and that played a role in the committee’s decision last week. “What we saw in A&M is a really, really good football team,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “They went into Death Valley, I thought dominated a good LSU team. You have a dynamic playmaker at quarterback, Marcel Reed. He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his feet. Impressive win, certainly going on the road, South Bend. I think you’re talking about really small margins when you think about the difference between Ohio State, Indiana and A&M, and then I think statistically, when we looked at A&M defensively, they’re just lower than both Ohio State and Indiana. We had to make a hard decision, and you’re trying to find separators, and that was a separator for us.”
Why they could be higher: Though Indiana was fortunate to escape Penn State with a win, Texas A&M went on the road and beat the committee’s No. 22 team soundly, scoring 24 points in the second half against Mizzou.
Need to know: Texas A&M entered Saturday with a 56.7% chance to earn a first-round bye but had less than a 50% chance to beat Texas in the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It’s the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies’ schedule, and their last road game.
Why they could be here: If the Tide didn’t start any higher in the first ranking, it’s unlikely a home win against LSU on Saturday will boost them above any of the undefeated teams. The head-to-head win will keep them above Georgia, though, as the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. The Tide’s road win against the No. 5 Bulldogs is one of the best in the country — arguably better than any win the teams above them can claim — but their season-opening loss to Florida State is holding them back. The Oct. 11 victory at Mizzou is still good, even if the Tigers fall out of the top 25 this week, and the committee will recognize Bama beat Mizzou when starting quarterback Beau Pribula was healthy. The Tide also have a CFP top-25 win against Tennessee, which had a bye this week. “I’m not sure, when you look at a résumé, anybody had a better stretch of four games,” Rhoades said of the Tide on Tuesday. “When you think about Alabama, really, really impressive, two of those wins on the road. Going into Athens, one of the hardest, toughest environments to be able to get out of there with a win. There was certainly discussion about the Florida State loss early on, but just felt like that four-game stretch — which by the way, historical in the SEC. Nobody has beaten four straight ranked teams without a bye.”
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify any movement up or down this week, given the teams around them won, the head-to-head results and last week’s ranking.
Need to know: Alabama’s strength of schedule was No. 4 in the country heading into Week 11 — better than every team ranked ahead of it. The Tide was No. 5, though, in strength of record, trailing the committee’s top three teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. This is the last ranked opponent Alabama will face.
Why they could be here: Georgia didn’t need a second-half surge at Mississippi State, after rallying from a tie or from behind during its previous three games. The committee likes what it sees from Georgia, but it has to account for head-to-head results, which is why Georgia should continue to be sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss again Tuesday night. “I think Gunner Stockton at quarterback has really progressed,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “It certainly feels like they have more confidence in him, doing a lot more with him. Again, he’s another maybe similar to Marcel Reed where he can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his feet. The head-to-head against Ole Miss, obviously we took that into account. We absolutely took into account the loss at home versus Alabama.”
Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see the Bulldogs move Tuesday night, given that nothing drastic happened around them.
Need to know: Georgia will play its last SEC game of the season Saturday against Texas, as it finishes the month against Charlotte and rival Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and enter this game on a four-game winning streak. They also had a bye to prepare for the trip to Athens, while Georgia is coming off a road win against Mississippi State.
Why they could be here: A lopsided win against The Citadel won’t impress the selection committee, but the Rebels already earned their respect in the first ranking. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of its head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday with a slight edge over Texas Tech in strength of record, but with greater separation in strength of schedule, where Ole Miss was No. 25 and Texas Tech was No. 58. The committee will also consider the Rebels’ road defeat to Georgia is a better loss than the Red Raiders’ road setback to Arizona State, which has lost two of its past four games.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech earned a CFP top-10 win Saturday when it beat previously undefeated BYU. Ole Miss’ best win was Oct. 25 at No. 12 Oklahoma.
Need to know: The Rebels’ 45-10 win against Tulane on Sept. 20 continues to enhance their overall record strength, even though it’s not a CFP top 25 win. The Green Wave earned an important win at Memphis on Friday, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Tulane also beat Northwestern and Duke this season, and the committee pays attention to opponents’ opponents (yes, you read that right).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn’t a gimme, even after the Bulldogs were beaten soundly Saturday by Georgia. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss — or getting bumped out of the bracket.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders looked like the best team in the Big 12 on Saturday, and the committee will likely reflect that in its second ranking. The double-digit win against previously undefeated BYU is better than Oregon’s best win, but the loss to Arizona State could play a role in the committee keeping Texas Tech behind Ole Miss. Still, the committee factors in injuries to key players, and the Red Raiders were without starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) on the road in their close defeat to the Sun Devils. “The loss at Arizona State without Behren at quarterback, Arizona State wins that late, so we do talk about quality wins,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “We also talk about quality losses.”
Why they could be higher: The selection committee also rewarded Texas Tech for its road win against No. 13 Utah. On Saturday, Texas Tech earned its ninth victory by at least 20 points this season, showing the committee its ability to win convincingly consistently. The Red Raiders’ defense held BYU to its fewest points in any game over the past two seasons.
Need to know: Texas Tech and BYU are still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a 93% chance to reach it, BYU is second with a 55% chance and Cincinnati is third (19%). If BYU captures the Big 12, Texas Tech could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champ, which would help boost its résumé and the case for playoff inclusion as the league runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. The Red Raiders have at least an 80% chance to win their two remaining regular-season games, but this one is slightly more difficult than against UCF because it’s on the road at a difficult venue.
Why they could be here: The Ducks got a much-needed résumé boost with Saturday’s win at Iowa, their first against a CFP top-25 team. Rhoades had said last week that Oregon had the lowest record strength of any team in the committee’s top 10. Saturday’s win also showed the group some impressive depth and grit, with the Ducks winning on the road in horrible weather and without multiple injured starters, including three of their top receivers. The question is whether Iowa will still be a top-25 team Tuesday now that the Hawkeyes have three losses.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been passing the eye test, ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency entering Saturday. With the exception of the two close road wins at Iowa and Penn State, the Ducks have dominated their opponents, ranking No. 4 in the country in game control — trailing only Ohio State, Indiana and Texas Tech.
Need to know: Oregon has at least a 70% chance to win each of its remaining games (Minnesota, USC and at Washington), according to ESPN Analytics, but it’s still unlikely to reach the Big Ten title game. The Ducks’ head-to-head home loss to the Hoosiers is a major reason.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 7-2 with one Big Ten loss and opportunities to climb in the ranking. A win at Oregon would flip the script in the conference pecking order, and if USC can beat Iowa Saturday, this game will be the Trojans’ Super Bowl.
Why they could be here: Notre Dame had no trouble dismantling an overmatched Navy team that was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. The committee considered that those two losses in last week’s first ranking were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans improving to 7-2 after Friday’s win against Northwestern. Rhoades said Notre Dame had been “much, much better defensively” of late. “You look at their backfield, Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love, probably the best backfield in the country when you think about one-two punch,” Rhoades said. “Going into the Southern Cal game, they lost their starting center for the year, and they were able to overcome that and run for a bunch of yards, again, against Southern Cal.”
Why they could be lower: This all depends on how far BYU drops. The Cougars will most likely be at No. 10 above Notre Dame and the two-loss pack of teams, or at No. 12, and below OU and Texas but above Utah. If the Cougars drop to No. 12, Notre Dame would get a slight promotion by default this week.
Need to know: Notre Dame still has the best chance of any team to win out, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. The Panthers might be playing the best of any team in the ACC during their five-game winning streak. They also had a bye week to prepare for the Irish.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns had a bye after earning a top-12 spot in the first ranking. Texas has won four straight, including CFP top-25 wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Vandy needed overtime to beat a 4-6 Auburn team Saturday, but that win should continue to help the Longhorns’ résumé. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida remains a stain on that résumé, though. The Longhorns’ 14-7 season-opening road defeat to No. 1-ranked Ohio State isn’t what keeps Texas out of the playoff.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how far BYU falls after losing 29-7 to Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU’s lone win against a CFP top-25 team was a 24-21 decision at home over Utah on Oct. 18. BYU entered Week 11 ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule, while Texas was No. 11. BYU didn’t lose to Florida, though — its lone defeat is to a CFP top-10 team.
Need to know: No team has a better opportunity to impress the selection committee in the final three weeks of the season than Texas, which will face two CFP top-five teams in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. If Texas splits those games and finishes as a three-loss team, it could still be ranked in the top 12 but might not make the playoff. It would be a similar situation to what happened to three-loss Alabama last year, which finished No. 11 on Selection Day, but was excluded from the playoff to make room for ACC champion Clemson. If Texas wins both games, it could jump Notre Dame and put the Irish in a similarly precarious position at No. 11 or No. 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It certainly won’t be easy to win at Georgia on Saturday, but the Longhorns had a bye week to prepare for it while the Bulldogs were on the road. Texas will face in-state rival Texas A&M on a Friday night in the regular-season finale, the second top-five team it will face in a three-week span.
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye but are stuck behind Texas because of their head-to-head loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 11. Wins against Tennessee and Michigan, though, have them within range of making the 12-team field, and it helped that the committee ranked the Vols No. 25 as its highest-ranked three-loss team.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee probably wouldn’t shuffle this order, considering Texas and Oklahoma were off this week, but OU could stay at 12 in the second ranking if the committee keeps BYU in the top 10.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa, as the rest of their résumé likely won’t be enough to compensate for a third loss, given that they’re already on the bubble in the eyes of the committee.
Why they could be here: The Cougars have a good win (Oct. 18 against Utah) and an eyebrow-raising defeat (Saturday). Texas Tech is a good team, but how BYU lost to the Red Raiders will matter. BYU was outplayed, and its offense was stifled: 67 rushing yards, 3 turnovers, 4.9 yards per pass, while converting just 3 of 14 third downs. A drop behind two-loss Texas and Oklahoma isn’t unreasonable. The Cougars have three wins against teams with fewer than four losses: Utah (7-2), Arizona (6-3) and East Carolina (6-3). But they entered Saturday ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule — significantly behind Notre Dame (23), Texas (11) and Oklahoma (13). The loss to Texas Tech opens the door for the committee to reevaluate BYU’s body of work. The committee would still likely honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Utah, though, giving the Cougars a safety net to stay in the top 12.
Why they could be higher: It was BYU’s first loss of the season, on the road, and to a top-10 team leading the nation in defensive efficiency.
Need to know: If BYU runs the table and reaches the Big 12 title game, it would clinch a spot in the playoff with a win. What happens if the Cougars finish as a two-loss runner-up with a second lopsided loss to Texas Tech? Where they’re placed in the committee’s second ranking Tuesday night will provide some insight and show how much margin for error they might have. If they land at No. 12 on Selection Day, even as the Big 12 runner-up, they’d be excluded to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is projected to be South Florida out of the American Conference.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. The Big 12 race isn’t over yet, and Cincinnati might have something to say about it — unless the Bearcats play the way they did during a 45-14 loss at Utah. Cincinnati still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game behind Texas Tech and BYU.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
-
Kiley McDaniel
The MLB offseason is officially here! As free agency kicks off at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, it’s time to rank the 2025-26 free agent class and predict how much money each player will get.
Let’s start with a quick rundown of what you need to know about these rankings and projections.
For simplicity, the players are ranked by the size of their projected guaranteed contracts, including the posting fee for foreign professionals, so technically it’s by the projected total cost to the signing team. (There are a number of players from Japan’s NPB and Korea’s KBO listed — that’s meant to be all the players who could in theory come to MLB; not all of them will this winter.) The contract projections are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the goal is to predict what will happen, not decide what each player is worth.
The qualifying offer (QO) is a notable piece of this puzzle — a team can offer a pending free agent a one-year, $22.025 million deal that he can accept, or the team gets compensation if he signs elsewhere — and I see 10 players who should be offered the QO (I added an asterisk to their projected contracts). That happens to be every free agent projected for over $50 million who is eligible to get the QO, and one player who seems to be borderline: Lucas Giolito.
Here are last year’s projections to get a feel for how I did. One measure is to compare my projections with the actual contracts. There were 124 players I projected to get big league deals who did sign one — I projected $3.58 billion in guarantees and those players received $3.44 billion in guarantees.
I project overall spending this winter at a hair over $3.5 billion. That’s almost exactly where last winter’s spending landed, though I projected $3.78 billion for it at the time, suggesting overall spending could be down a bit this offseason. Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty opting into their contracts was a bit surprising and ticked this winter’s projected spending down a little over $100 million.
Buzz around the industry is mixed about the market as a whole, so I’d expect a slower start to free agency as both sides feel out what teams are looking to accomplish. On to the projections!
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 11 years, $418 million ($38M AAV)*
Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had long been circled as the two players who could potentially sign megadeals in this free agent class, but Tucker is alone at the top since Vlad Jr. got his extension (14 years, $500 million) during the 2025 season. Tucker had some ups and downs to his 2025 season, covered in my September breakdown (and polling of the industry) of his free agent market. I go into a lot of depth about the comparables and how the market values Tucker vs. Guerrero.
The conclusion from that exercise (via the industry projections of his contract) is that Tucker should come in just below $400 million. I’ve found from my experience projecting these types of deals that the top-tier free agents tend to beat those projections. This is largely due to the competition among top teams to get the true difference-makers, and also because many teams think they can “make” role players from their own prospects and players signed on smaller free agent deals, thus shifting some spending from those types of players to stars. Every team knows what the “expected” contract is for these top players; a handful of interested teams aim for that target more or less, then run into competitive forces; and at least one team is willing to go a bit over the projection because of the lack of elite players available at any one time.
Tucker has been very consistent (he has the 11th-best WAR and is the ninth-best hitter in baseball since 2021) and has been lauded since early in his high school career for his pretty left-handed swing and big power, going fifth in the 2015 draft. That’s the kind of long track record and consistency (read: high floor, low bust potential) teams look for when they’re making giant investments.
The risk for a corner outfielder who will be 30 years old in the second season of his deal is that he could athletically fall off a cliff in the middle of this contract. Tucker is insulated from that concern a bit because he has a track record of being above average on the basepaths and defensively despite below-average top-end speed and only solid-average bat speed. He relies more on feel and precision than pure tools, thus the thinking is he’ll age better than the generic very good corner outfielder.
2025 team: Houston Astros
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 6 years, $168 million ($28M AAV)*
Valdez is an easy sell: He’s a dependable (fifth-most regular-season innings since 2021) lefty with extensive playoff experience (most playoff starts and innings since 2020) who has regularly posted ERAs in the high 2s to mid-3s, averaging 3.20 since 2021, and that mark is driven by the highest ground ball rate in the league (among starters) in that span. Plus, the velocity of his sinker went up a bit in 2025 after a dip in 2024. On the other hand, he’s about to turn 32, doesn’t miss many bats relative to other nine-figure starters, and his 3.66 ERA in 2025 is his worst since 2019.
So, you’re not getting an ace, or at least not as most people think about an ace, but you’re likely getting a steady No. 2/No. 3 starter and clear starter in a playoff series, and you’re just hoping that he doesn’t transition to a softer-tossing back-end starter on this contract. The best recent comp is Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million), though Valdez is hitting the market at roughly 18 months older than Nola did, so six years seems likely.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 6 years, $165 million ($27.5M AAV)
Bellinger won the NL MVP as a 23-year-old in 2019 with a 7.8 WAR season but hasn’t reached those heights again, relying more on being well-rounded and producing regular quality contact rather than massive exit velos. On the bright side, his second-best season was 2025, when he posted 4.9 WAR with above-average baserunning and defensive value.
Bellinger is an average defensive center fielder who is above average in a corner-outfield spot and solid at first base, as well. His wide base of skills and versatility give him a high floor, and the adjustability of changing his offensive approach in the big leagues suggests he’ll age well.
There aren’t many potential core position players in this class, but Bellinger still being young for a free agent while fitting well at four positions should give him a robust market. I see five or six years here, and I think he’ll clear $150 million.
2025 team: Boston Red Sox
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 5 years, $160 million ($32M AAV)
Bregman opted out of a $40 million player option (with deferred money moving the net present value just under $32 million by one calculation) to hit the market again now one year older than last winter, but with his offensive stats ticking up a bit in 2025. Last winter, I projected six years, $187 million and Bregman’s high-end offers didn’t meet his liking, so he opted for a shorter deal with a higher AAV (only slightly higher after deferrals) and opt-outs: three years, $120 million.
Age is a massive factor in the math teams do to set the years and price they’re willing to pay to sign free agents, so five years is probably where things land if Bregman ends up getting a longer-term deal to his liking. I think teams with real interest would be fine with a roughly $30 million AAV at a four- or five-year term. My best guess is that negotiations will end up just above that because Bregman is the most consistent option (at least 14% above league average as a hitter every year of his career) of the hitters behind Tucker, with real age, defensive or consistency questions hindering the other hitters in contention for this kind of payday.
5. Tatsuya Imai, SP
2025 team: Seibu Lions (NPB)
2026 Opening Day age: 27
Projected contract: 6 years, $135 million ($22.5M AAV) + $22.125 million posting fee
Imai likely gets the biggest deal of any foreign professional this winter and is more of a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter with some risk to get there than a potential ace, but his age and the lack of a qualifying offer will help bring up the amount teams are willing to pay for him. Imai will be subject to the posting system; the posting fee for this projected contract would be just over $22 million, paid to his NPB club, for an all-in cost of just over $157 million ($26.2M AAV).
A big selling point on Imai is his cratering walk rate, going from a BB/9 of 5.1 to 4.1 to 3.6 to 2.5 over the past four seasons, punctuated by his 2025 line: 163⅔ IP and a 1.92 ERA. Imai is 5-foot-11 and throws from a lower slot, so he creates a flat plane, excellent for swings and misses at the top of the zone for his 93-97 mph four-seam fastball that hit 99 mph last season. His miss rate on the pitch wasn’t elite because he didn’t throw it at the top of the zone very often, but that’s something that can be fine-tuned in the big leagues.
Imai has an above-average splitter, but his slider is a more interesting topic. His slider doesn’t slide: It averages arm-side movement, like Trey Yesavage’s, so it can be an effective pitch even if it’s unusual to see (especially when paired with a splitter and above-average fastball velocity, like Yesavage does). There’s some conventional wisdom that a backup slider is the best pitch in baseball (because nobody knows when a pitcher will misthrow the pitch like that), but that’s meant as a one-off, not a recurring quality to shoot for.
You could question Imai’s size or fastball miss rate or shorter track record of elite command, but the biggest concern teams have is if his slider will play in the big leagues for the long term. It played well this season, with a 45% miss rate and .212 xwOBA, both well better than MLB average for a slider. These qualities add up to both uniqueness in Imai’s shapes and release traits as well as adjustability due to his improving command: Some teams see these two qualities as the secret to projecting longevity and improvement with pitchers.
Every team would love to land a steady midrotation starter on a deal where half of it will take place in his 20s. If I miss this projection by $25 million or more, it’ll probably be because he got more money, not less.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 5 years, $145 million ($29M AAV)*
Cease has been a reliable front-line starter for the past five seasons, making at least 32 starts each year and ranking fourth in that span in pitcher WAR, ahead of Tarik Skubal, Max Fried and Valdez. He tends to underperform his peripherals a bit, but that spiked this year, when he posted a 4.55 ERA while his ERA estimators were in the mid-3s.
Cease is a right-handed version of Blake Snell in a number of ways, with vertically oriented movement due to his higher slot, a fastball/breaking ball-heavy power approach (at least 80% fastball/slider to both righties and lefties) and an elevated walk rate at times paired with a big whiff rate. Cease hasn’t been good in the playoffs over five appearances (8.74 ERA), but there are only so many pitchers who can give quality innings in bulk with the chance to show flashes of ace-level pitching for spurts when the locations of their power stuff are dialed in.
I see five years at roughly $30 million AAV as the neighborhood he should land in, but comparable starting pitching options and the (likely) qualifying offer being tied to him might dampen his market a bit from there.
2025 team: Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 5 years, $130 million ($26M AAV)*
Whereas Tucker, Valdez and Bregman are steady, standout players, Bichette is one of a handful of players in the next tier of talent with mixed résumés but similar upside. He was good immediately in the big leagues and was one of the top 30 players in the sport from 2021 through 2023, averaging 4.5 WAR per year during that stretch. His 2024 season was cut in half by injuries, but he also hit .225 with career-low power numbers and it wasn’t that unlucky: He was notably worse, particularly at the plate, although his bat speed and foot speed were basically the same.
Then, Bichette bounced back in 2025, performing at or just above his 2023 levels at the plate, but his defense became more of an issue. His defensive metrics were the worst of his career, showing way below-average range at shortstop, something that could be pretty easily solved by moving him to second or third base. Bichette is the youngest of the MLB veteran free agents (a few potential NPB veterans are the only younger players) projected to land over $75 million.
His defensive contributions (though a position change addresses that), his durability and his 2024 offensive showing might make some teams pause, but Bichette has a solid track record with real upside. There’s a case he should make more than Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175 million deal from 2022 (after a strong platform season as Toronto’s shortstop), though Semien hit 45 homers and was a superior baserunner and defender at that point, despite being three years older when he hit the market, which was also a hot, pre-labor stoppage market.
There’s also a chance Bichette’s market takes a turn similar to Bregman’s last winter, toward a shorter term with opt-outs (two or three years, roughly a $30 million AAV) if he doesn’t get the giant guarantee he’s looking for. This has a real chance to happen because Bichette could hit the market in his 20s next winter, and a full, healthy 2026, maybe even with better defense, would really help his case for a big long-term deal.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 4 years, $128 million ($32M AAV)*
I polled the industry on Schwarber’s deal, and expectations are roughly around four years at $30 million per year, though both figures could end up a bit higher. Schwarber swatted 56 homers and had a .323 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and a .414 xwOBA, which are all career highs. Because he has played just 13 games in the field over the past two seasons and is a soon-to-be 33-year-old designated hitter, his market will be much lower than you might expect for those power numbers.
One way to read the industry projections is that there’s an expectation that Schwarber will be very productive for the next two seasons (maybe three), and to get him under contract, you’ll have to either pay as though he will definitely be good or toss in a fourth year. Some execs believe that since at least one team will likely offer a fourth year, a smart move could be to add a fifth year, effectively at a much lower salary (like $7-10 million more in guaranteed money), to get the AAV lower for CBT considerations and also to max out the total guarantee to (potentially) win the bidding process. J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110 million deal with the Red Sox in 2018 is one of the few relevant historical comps, but he was about three years younger than Schwarber is now.
If I were to give numbers for those three-, four- and five-year projections, it would be something like three years for $115 million ($38.3 AAV), four years for $128 million ($32 AAV) or five years for $135 million ($27 AAV). From Schwarber’s perspective, I’d probably take the four-year deal. It also wouldn’t shock me if some teams approached these three scenarios at $15 million lower on each of the guarantees because they weigh position and age much more heavily in their projections. If a team were to end up well above these figures, execs I spoke with think it would be the Phillies.
2025 team: New York Mets
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 4 years, $110 million ($27.5M AAV)
Alonso was anticipated to get $150 million or so last winter, and his expectations for a long-term deal weren’t met, so he returned to the Mets on a two-year, $54 million deal that had an opt-out, which he exercised. The combination of being a poor defensive first baseman going into his 30s and his offensive numbers trending down from his peak didn’t get teams excited last winter — and owner Steve Cohen didn’t mandate the Mets re-sign Alonso at any cost — so the market for a huge deal didn’t materialize.
In 2025, however, Alonso put up his best offensive numbers since his rookie season, and one key underlying metric (xwOBA) was the best of his career. What changed? His strikeout rate was down and his power numbers were up, which both would be affected by the shortening of his swing length. The shortness of his swing was in the 74th percentile (ranked 58th) this season after being in the 51st percentile (ranked 104th) last season, among qualified hitters.
Alonso’s baserunning and defensive metrics continue to regress, almost entirely due to his range; some evaluators think he should be a primary DH going forward, which would hurt his long-term value. There’s some of the Schwarber logic here — everyone in baseball would like to have Alonso for the next few seasons, but then the interest gets more mixed around season three or four. I could see some teams offering a fifth year, but for a number about half of the AAV listed above, so something more like $120-125 million guaranteed. The industry values a left-handed bat (Schwarber) more than a right-handed one (Alonso), so that combined with Schwarber’s better 2025 numbers makes up for him being older than Alonso. I think all that adds up to Schwarber securing a bigger guarantee than Alonso, but it might be quite close.
10. Munetaka Murakami, 3B
2025 team: Yakult Swallows (NPB)
2026 Opening Day age: 26
Projected contract: 5 years, $80 million ($16M AAV) + $13.875 million posting fee
Murakami missed being age-eligible to be posted last winter by a few months. His posting process has been anticipated since he burst onto the scene in 2022 and hit 56 home runs in his age-22 season in Japan. Since then, a combination of injuries, positional questions and contact issues has dampened evaluators’ enthusiasm a bit.
On the bright side, Murakami is a left-handed hitter with massive raw power: His 90th percentile exit velos would’ve been fifth in MLB, his maximum exit velo would be 12th and his hard-hit rate would be first. On the other hand, he’s probably a long-term first baseman (but hasn’t really played there before), his contact rates would be among the worst in MLB and he has faced lesser velocity in NPB. Some evaluators think his contact rate could improve — even while facing better pitchers in the U.S. — if he can make some mechanical/approach adjustments, but that’s obviously speculative.
The bull case is that Murakami’s combination of elite exit velos, hitting from the left side, having some defensive value in the infield and being in his mid-20s is rare enough on the free agent market to get him an eight-figure AAV over a five- or six-year deal, with some execs assuming the total outlay plus posting fee will eclipse $100 million, possibly by a big margin. It’ll take a team with that perspective of Murakami to get to that number because other evaluators see a risky, one-dimensional player here.
A reasonable expectation is Murakami can be an immediate home run threat with a solid walk rate but a low average and not much in the way of baserunning or defensive value — maybe Kyle Manzardo/Matt Wallner on the lower end, Spencer Torkelson as a medium comp and Brent Rooker as the hopeful outcome. The above projected contract might look weird for that set of comps, and there are a number of teams that wouldn’t go over $50 million for Murakami, but there are also not many mid-20s position players on the free agent market with a clear exceptional skill and no QO; these sorts of players demand a high price on the trade market if they’re even available. A comp that comes up is Joey Gallo, who most fans think was always a bad player, but he did post 4.4 WAR in his age-27 season, and next year will be Murakami’s age-26 season.
Remember Yoshinobu Yamamoto went for almost double of many of his pre-offseason contract projections with those same market factors also on his side, though he’s a starting pitcher. Murakami is hitting the market 3½ years younger than Masataka Yoshida was as a free agent with a similar amount of defensive and baserunning value, and Yoshida got $90 million from the Red Sox. I’m striking a bit of a balance with my projection, but I could see Murakami’s ultimate deal being around $50 million or well over $100 million (before posting fee), with the higher number more likely.
We can profile the sorts of teams that will be the most enthusiastic bidders. Teams with big payrolls that also highly value exit velo and age might see this gamble as an enticing one: The Yankees are one team that fits on both counts and the Cubs could fit as well. Chicago has Tucker hitting free agency along with Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner entering walk years, while Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara and Jonathon Long are battling for long-term spots, so the Cubs could add Murakami to that group to get some time at the four corner spots and DH.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 4 years, $92 million ($23M AAV)
Suarez is fascinating: His fastball velocity has slipped from 93.4 mph to 92.0 to 91.2 over the past three seasons, but his ERA has gone from 4.18 to 3.46 to 3.20 and his WAR has gone from 2.4 to 3.4 to 4.0. Velocity obviously isn’t everything, but (potentially) betting nine figures and five years on Suarez’s future means teams would like to see key metrics either be steady or improving, not regressing.
A big difference in 2025 was Suarez leaned more into his changeup and cutter against righties and more into his slider against lefties (along with lowering his arm slot). Run values (every pitch has an outcome and each outcome has a value, so you just add them all up) tell us how that went: His changeup went from minus-2 runs for the season to plus-6, his cutter went from minus-6 to plus-2, and his slider went from being thrown twice all of 2024 to being a plus-1-run pitch in 2025.
Suarez’s command is measurably plus and he has two distinct mixes against righties and lefties, both headlined by his sinker, his one pitch that has clearly above-average movement traits on its own; the rest of his arsenal works due to the mix, locations and deception. A team that signs him would be betting that when his velo tails off more toward the end of the deal, his feel will still make him a solid fourth starter given these traits.
There are parallels here with Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez as medium-stuff lefty starters with good feel, bulk innings and postseason experience. They both landed multiyear deals with AAVs in the low 20s, but Suarez is younger than both and arguably had the best platform year, so four — or possibly five — years (and nine figures) seems reasonable.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 4 years, $90 million ($22.5M AAV)*
After three straight years under the Mendoza line, Grisham stepped up in his walk year to hit .235, and he paired that with lots of walks (82) and lots of homers (34). He’s a fringy defender in center field who should transition to a corner outfield spot at some point during his next contract. Grisham’s combination of on-base and power skills compares well to Teoscar Hernandez’s case last winter, but Grisham offers a lot more defensive value and is hitting the market three years younger. Hernandez landed a three-year deal for $66 million with some deferrals, so I’d expect Grisham to get four years, or maybe five, at around $20 million AAV.
2025 team: Arizona Diamondbacks
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 4 years, $76 million ($19M AAV)*
Gallen regressed a bit this year (4.83 ERA) after a sterling three-year run from 2022 to 2024 (cumulative 3.20 ERA, seventh-best pitcher WAR in baseball). There isn’t a clear explanation, but a lot of it can be chalked up to bad ball-in-play luck after he was largely lucky on balls in play from 2022 to 2024.
The biggest regression was with his curveball, while his slider and cutter also performed worse but his fastball and changeup performed better. I read that as a combination of location/sequence tweaking and positive regression can take Gallen back to the 2024 version of himself next season. That would mean an ERA in the high 3s and strong bulk innings, making him a valuable No. 3 starter for the next few years at least. Gallen is roughly 2½ years younger as he hits free agency than Sean Manaea, who landed a three-year deal for a partly deferred $75 million last winter. Gallen’s age, righty vs. lefty numbers and platform year ERA mostly balance each other out, so I see a three- or four-year deal for an AAV of $17-23 million.
2025 team: New York Mets
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 4 years, $60 million ($15M AAV)*
Diaz opted out of the remaining two years and $38 million on his deal with the Mets and looks poised to add one or two more years at a similar rate. His underlying numbers and peripherals have been consistent over his past two seasons — matching those of an elite reliever with a mid-2s ERA — but his ERAs have fluctuated, with an ERA of 3.52 in 2024 (driven by a spike in home run rate) but then 1.63 in 2025, despite similar components of his performance both years. This is likely a three- or four-year deal that should eclipse $50 million in total.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $57 million ($19M AAV)*
King missed about half of the 2025 season because of a nerve issue in his right shoulder and a knee injury. When he was on the mound, his pitch shapes were only slightly different from 2024, but the big difference was his four-seam fastball gave up way more damage than it did in 2024, going from a .402 slugging allowed to .814.
His sinker is his primary fastball and his four-seamer gives a different look than his crossfire, east-to-west-oriented stuff due to his low arm slot. Tweaking four-seam locations and usage seems like a solvable issue, but getting hit around more after an arm issue and his shorter track record as an elite starting pitcher cast some doubt on his long-term outlook. King’s unique angles and shapes will interest teams that excel at pitching development, as they tend to prize unique pitchers more than traditional clubs do. I think this will lead to a bifurcated market with some teams looking to get King on a one-year prove-it deal (maybe with an option attached) and other clubs willing to offer a multiyear deal (possibly for four years, too) that would be a discount compared with the contract expectations King might have had a year ago after posting 3.9 WAR in 2024.
2025 team: Detroit Tigers
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $57 million ($19M AAV)*
I thought Torres would land a three-year deal last winter, but he didn’t find the multiyear offer he wanted, despite being 27 years old when he hit the market, due to his numbers ticking down across the board in 2024. Things ticked back up in 2025: His defensive and baserunning metrics were both a few runs better (though still below average), and his offensive numbers were up, although he still underperformed his underlying hitting statistics. I see him staying at second base for at least half of a three-year deal and hitting enough to be an everyday player at any position for the whole deal, so I think he lands that multiyear deal this winter. That said, he could accept the qualifying offer (a one-year, $22.02 million deal) if Detroit extends it to him.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 3 years, $52.5 million ($17.5M AAV)
Naylor has some clear positives: He’s in his 20s for almost two more full seasons, he’s a solid average defender at first base, he has incredible baserunning instincts despite well below-average speed, and he’s a plus contact hitter. Those qualities give him a high floor and a solid two- to three-year outlook, but because he has roughly average raw power, chases out of the zone at a worse-than-average rate and is limited to first base, his ceiling is also limited. I would imagine he’ll get solid two-year offers or be forced to take a lower AAV on a three-year deal.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $45 million ($22.5M AAV)
Suarez has been an unsung but hugely productive slugger over the years: He’s sixth in baseball in home runs (261) since 2018, ahead of Juan Soto, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He has played third base almost exclusively for the past three seasons, but his defensive metrics have regressed, going from plus-8 runs to plus-3 to minus-3 in that span. Even though he has been very productive, there’s a ceiling — both financially and in terms of WAR — when projecting a right-handed-hitting future first baseman who’s 34 years old. Suarez has posted 3.5 to 4.3 WAR each of the past four seasons, but the league sees regression coming and is paying only for the future; this projection leans into that.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 3 years, $45 million ($15M AAV)
Williams had a wild spike in his ERA (4.79) in his one year in New York after a great run from 2020 to 2024 (1.70 ERA over 222 IP) in Milwaukee, in which his 7.6 WAR was second best among relievers in that span. His underlying numbers were slightly worse in 2025 — his xERA was 2.29 in 2020-2024 and 3.07 in 2025 — but nowhere near as bad as what his ERA would have you believe. His velocity was up a bit in the second half, and his strikeout rate also jumped from 31% to 39%, so there’s a case to be made that bad luck amplifies a slight regression from arguably the best reliever in the game to merely one of the best 10 to 15 in the league. Williams might see more value in a shorter-term deal or one with an opt-out to reset his market, but I think there will be three-year interest at a healthy AAV.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 3 years, $43.5 million ($14.5M AAV)
Imanaga had a strong first season in MLB in 2024, posting a 2.91 ERA over 173⅓ innings with ERA estimators in the mid-3s. His 2025 season was much more uneven. His velo slipped a full tick to 90.8 mph, and his ERA estimators ballooned into the mid-4s as his ERA rose to 3.73. His strikeout rate fell and his homer rate spiked down the stretch — in his last dozen starts of the regular season, he gave up 20 home runs — and he was also hit hard in the playoffs. The Cubs declined their option to tack on an additional three years to his deal for $57 million, and then Imanaga declined his player option for $15 million. He should be getting two- and three-year offers at around $15 million AAV, but the demand for reliable innings with some upside makes me think there will be a three-year offer a notch or two behind what the Cubs turned down.
21. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B
2025 team: Yomiuri Giants (NPB)
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million ($12M AAV) + Posting Fee: $6.925 million
Like Murakami, Okamoto primarily played third base in NPB and likely moves to first base in short order in MLB. Unlike Murakami, Okamoto has played a lot of first base, so there will be less of a breaking-in period as he’s also getting used to big league pitching. Okamoto has a track record of strong on-base percentages in Japan, though some evaluators think he could be challenged by the higher velocity in MLB. He has plus raw power and an excellent feel for getting to it in games, giving him some ceiling if his contact rates in MLB are good enough. A right-handed-hitting (likely) first baseman who will turn 30 next June and has no big league experience is still a bit of a risk without a ton of ceiling, but Okamoto is a good bet to be a solid contributor, with a chance to be more if it all translates.
2025 team: Texas Rangers
2026 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 2 years, $35 million ($17.5M AAV)
Kelly is one of the softest-tossing right-handed starters in baseball, averaging under 92 mph on his four-seamer, but he finds success due to his feel for a deep repertoire headlined by a changeup that’s his most-used pitch. He missed about half of 2024 due to a strained shoulder but has otherwise thrown 150 to 200 innings per season since 2021. Kelly just turned 37 and doesn’t have much margin for error to keep his ERA in the 3s, but he has the feel to eat up innings regardless of his raw stuff.
2025 team: Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 2 years, $34 million ($17M AAV)
Bassitt has been incredibly consistent since he became a full-time starter in 2019, throwing the seventh-most innings (1087⅓) and posting the 24th-best pitcher WAR (16.9) in that span. He’ll turn 37 in February, and his velocity slipped from 92.7 mph in 2024 to 91.4 in 2025, so he is likely limited to a one- or two-year deal. That said, his track record ensures he’ll land an AAV in the $15 million-plus area.
24. Lucas Giolito, SP
2025 team: Boston Red Sox
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $32 million ($16M AAV)
Giolito declined his end of a $19 million mutual option (with a $1.5 million buyout) to hit the open market, but the Red Sox could still offer him the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer. Giolito missed the entire 2024 season because of elbow surgery but had a solid bounce-back showing in 2025, posting a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings. He profiles as a fourth starter whose strikeout rate dropped from 26% in 2023 to 20% in 2025. Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5 million deal before the 2024 season, and I think two years makes sense again, but at a slightly lower figure this time.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $32 million ($16M AAV)
Realmuto has regressed from the heights of his 6.7-WAR season in 2022, settling in as a roughly league-average offensive threat and a slightly negative defensive catcher, mostly due to his framing. That still adds up to an average everyday catcher, probably for another year or two, and the clear best catcher on the market this winter.
2025 team: Atlanta Braves
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)
Ozuna had a down year in 2025, is now hitting the market a week before he turns 35 years old and hasn’t played an inning in the field for two seasons. His regression (a .925 OPS in 2024 to a .756 OPS in 2025) overstates how much his underlying ability regressed, as his xwOBA suggests he was quite unlucky on ball-in-play outcomes. That said, this sort of player is the type that often falls off drastically around this age, so even after adjusting for that bad luck, his potential further regression in 2026 might result in teams projecting he’ll roughly repeat his surface numbers from 2025. Paul Goldschmidt was in a similar situation last winter and settled for a one-year deal at $12.5 million, but Ozuna’s case is a bit better, so he likely gets a one- or two-year deal at a bit more on the annual rate.
2025 team: Cincinnati Reds
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)
Martinez took the QO last winter — a one-year, $21.05 million deal — even when many thought he had a decent multiyear market, just probably not at that AAV. His peripherals regressed in 2025 — a lower strikeout rate, higher walk rate and higher home run rate — so he now falls into the bucket of a steady, veteran innings eater. That group comes with a high salary floor (tons of teams will pay eight figures a year due to the bulk innings) but also a ceiling; I can’t see him getting more than two years.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 3 years, $30 million ($10M AAV)
Weaver came out of nowhere to transition from a mediocre starter to a dominating reliever in 2024. His fastball velocity slipped and his ERA jumped a bit in 2025, though his peripherals were pretty similar. I think Weaver’s market should be at two or three years and at roughly $10 million per year.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 2 years, $27 million ($13.5M AAV)
O’Hearn had a big year in 2025, with a .281 average, 17 homers and 3.0 WAR, all registering as career highs. He doesn’t have massive raw power, so he’s more of a steady on-base threat with some power that’s largely limited to first base and on the wrong side of 30 years old now. That boxes O’Hearn into a one- or two-year deal for a little over $10 million per year.
2025 team: New York Mets
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 3 years, $27 million ($9M AAV)
Rogers averages 83.5 mph on his fastball and has among the worst whiff rates in MLB, but he’s incredibly effective because of his location and the deception created by his submarine arm angle. Since 2021, he has the 29th-most reliever WAR in baseball and a 2.71 ERA over 378⅓ innings in that span, so this isn’t a fluke or small sample. Some of the sharpest teams prioritize having different looks (arm slots, movement profiles, etc.) in their bullpen, and Rogers offers arguably the most different look in the majors while having a skill set that seems more immune than most to losing effectiveness with age because velocity has nothing to do with his success.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 2 years, $26 million ($13M AAV)
Polanco, defensively speaking, is somewhere on the second base/third base/first base/designated hitter spectrum. The switch hitter performed really well at the plate this year, ending up with near career bests in both strikeout rate and home runs. He doesn’t offer a ton outside of when he’s holding a bat in his hands, and he turns 33 years old next summer, so I think Polanco will be in the range of a two-year deal for over $10 million per year.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)
Bader has been an above-average defensive center fielder for a long time and still is. The difference is he posted career bests at the plate in 2025, hitting .277 with 17 homers that contributed to a wRC+ of 122. There was a healthy amount of ball-in-play luck baked into that figure, so expect some regression back toward league average. I think there will be interest in a two-year deal with some risk that he might be a fourth outfielder in the second year of the deal.
2025 team: Milwaukee Brewers
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)
Woodruff declined his end of a $20 million mutual option (with a $10 million buyout) to hit the open market after he had a sterling return to the Brewers’ rotation on the heels of missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. In 12 starts in 2025, Woodruff narrowly set career bests for strikeout and walk rate, along with xERA, though his velocity understandably slipped a few ticks to 93.0 mph on average, which is now below league average. Woodruff has a new pitch mix and approach: His fastball, cutter and sinker are three variations of a fastball with slightly different targets and movement profiles, and his changeup is his pitch to keep hitters honest. He throws those four pitches 95% of the time.
Shoulder surgery is less of a slam dunk to fully return from than elbow surgery, so durability will be a question, though Woodruff seems poised to be a standout performer in any role if he can stay healthy. If he passes the physical, he seems tailor-made to land with a big-market team that can afford to gamble that it’ll have a standout arm for parts of the season, but it isn’t likely he’ll post 150 innings in a season again. This could also easily be a one-year deal for a smaller guarantee and lots of incentives if teams aren’t optimistic about his long-term durability when they get more information about his shoulder.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)
Suarez opted out of the last two years of his deal for $16 million, and I think he’ll do a bit better than that on the open market. He burst onto the domestic scene in 2022 after a stint in NPB and became one of the better relievers in the sport, but his strikeout rate regressed heavily the next year and ticked up only a bit in 2024 and 2025. He’s probably limited to a two-year deal given his age and the mixed signals his peripherals have sent the past few seasons, but I think he’ll post a low-to-mid-3s ERA the next few seasons (or at least peripherals that should equate to that). Having experience in the postseason and in the ninth inning also helps his case.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $23 million ($11.5M AAV)
Soroka was a starter for most of his career until he settled in the bullpen for the White Sox in 2024 and caught fire late in the season. The Nats signed him for 2025 on a one-year deal for $9 million to convert him back to a starter, which he was until he was traded to the Cubs at this year’s deadline and went back to the pen. Soroka missed time with a shoulder issue in 2025, throwing only 89⅔ innings with a 4.52 ERA. There are still some qualities here that I think teams will want to gamble on as a starter even though Soroka has topped 90 innings only once in his career. Since he’s still in his 20s, I could see Soroka choosing to take another shot at a one-year deal to prove he can throw 150 innings and potentially get a big deal next winter.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $22 million ($11M AAV)
From 2021 to 2022, Keller was tracking like a starting pitcher who could get an eight-figure deal as a reliable innings eater when he hit free agency, but injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to 27 big league appearances across 2023 and 2024 as he posted a combined minus-0.6 WAR. He looked to be mired in minor league deals for the next few years, but then, out of nowhere, he posted a dominant 2025 season as a setup man for the Cubs, helped by a spike in velocity. The sample size is just one season, and he’s already 30 years old, but he’ll get offered multiyear deals. I can’t even rule out a three-year deal.
2025 team: Cincinnati Reds
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $22 million ($11M AAV)
Pagan’s fastball velocity spiked last season from 94.6 to 95.8 mph, and that helped both his fastball and splitter (his two most-used pitches) be much more effective. He gives up a lot of flyballs, which makes him susceptible to home run problems, but also collects whiffs and popups in the interim. There should be plenty of multiyear interest, despite his age.
2025 team: Detroit Tigers
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $21 million ($10.5M AAV)
In 2024, Finnegan was fourth in baseball in four-seam fastball usage at 68%, which usually means a pitcher has a dominating, unique offering. But Finnegan didn’t — he was just late to the modern trend of throwing his fastball less often. He slightly reduced that usage to 66% with Washington last year, then he was traded to the Tigers at the deadline and dropped his fastball usage dramatically: down to 41% with all of that usage going to his splitter, which spiked to 55% usage. Finnegan’s strikeout rate went from 20% before the trade (over 39 innings) to 35% after it (over 18 innings); sometimes baseball can be that simple. It’s a short track record to base a multiyear deal on, but I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a team that wants to be even more aggressive than I’m projecting here.
2025 team: Tampa Bay Rays
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)
Houser had a good 2025 in large part because mechanical tweaks helped the velocity of his sinker go from 92.5 mph in 2024 to 94.4 in 2025. He profiles as a fourth starter, and those are in enough demand to land him a two-year deal.
2025 team: Texas Rangers
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)
Maton is somewhat unusual among elite relievers: He’s throwing a cutter or slower, sweepier curveball 74% of the time and doing it with a big extension from a lower arm slot. He’s a journeyman with a career ERA of 3.98, but his 2025 ERA was 2.79 and it wasn’t fluky, he just seemed to figure out how to tunnel, sequence and locate his stuff. Teams like to stockpile relievers with unique qualities, so I think Maton will get two-year offers, but I can’t rule out a three-year deal.
2025 team: Hanwha Eagles (KBO)
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)
Ponce was a second-round pick by the Brewers from Cal Poly Pomona in 2015 and made his big league debut in 2020 with the Pirates. His combination of stuff and command played at Triple-A but not the big leagues, so Ponce headed to Japan and Korea, where he played the past four seasons, and seemed to figure something out in 2025. His strikeout rate spiked to 36%, a career high by a lot, and he also threw by far the most innings of his career at 180⅔ while showing above-average control with a 6% walk rate.
Ponce’s fastball is 94-97, touching 99 mph, with an 88-to-92 mph cutter, 80-to-82 mph curveball and 86-to-89 mph changeup as his main pitches. They all grade as average to above average, and his locations/tunneling combos seem similar to those of other successful starters. He should find success in MLB with this approach. The contract comparison is Erick Fedde’s two-year, $15 million deal for the 2024 season after coming back from the KBO at basically the same age with quite similar numbers and stuff as Ponce. However, I think Ponce will beat that number by a bit.
2025 team: Atlanta Braves
2026 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)
Iglesias’s numbers regressed a bit in 2025, and his velocity dipped 1 mph, but he’s still a steady late-inning performer who’s probably now just going to have an ERA that starts with a three instead of a one or two. His extensive ninth-inning experience is a nice bonus, and he likely won’t demand a third year due to his age, so he makes a lot of sense as a setup man for a contending club.
2025 team: Cincinnati Reds
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)
Littell is an odd pitcher to evaluate. His two most-used pitches are a cutter and splitter, and they were his worst-performing pitches by run value last year. As you might have guessed from that, Littell succeeds with excellent control, every sort of deception you can think of and durability. He’s younger than most free agents with that kind of profile, so I assume he can land a two-year deal, but he’s the kind of pitcher who plays a smaller role in the playoffs than the regular season.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million ($8.5M AAV)
Arraez draws different views on his value because he’s arguably the best pure hitter in the league but might not even be average at another relevant skill. Hitting is really important, though! Some teams see him as a role player or insurance policy, but given the postseason success of the Jays (tied to their high contact rate), some teams might see Arraez as a tone-setter who needs to be in the lineup every day. I think there will be some two-year interest, but Arraez getting a string of one-year deals wouldn’t surprise me.
2025 team: Boston Red Sox
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million ($8.5M AAV)
Matz has transitioned to a full-time reliever now after being a primary starter as recently as 2023. His bread-and-butter pitch is a mid-90s sinker and he keeps hitters honest with a curveball and changeup. The nature of his sinker is to induce weak contact rather than whiffs, and his history as a starter means he can go multiple innings, so he’s more valuable than a quick glance at his surface stats would suggest. Demand for reliable bullpen lefties tells me there’s a multiyear deal to be had here.
2025 team: Atlanta Braves
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $16 million
Kim declined his $16 million player option after a rough season that was his worst in the big leagues, playing 48 games for Tampa Bay and Atlanta after labrum surgery on his shoulder. He regressed at everything, but he also missed time for back injuries and his shoulder wasn’t back to its pre-surgery arm strength, either. The 2025 season was basically a lost one for Kim, and optimistic evaluators will need to see it as an on-ramp to becoming some facsimile of his pre-shoulder injury self. I can see him becoming a 2-win type of player as soon as next season, but that requires some level of imagination. I could see a two-year deal, but a one-year prove-it deal for roughly the terms of his player option feels right.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)
Ferguson is quite similar to Matz, just less famous and without history as a big league starter. He’s also five years younger, so it wouldn’t shock me if Ferguson actually ended up getting a bigger guarantee or even a third guaranteed year. Continuing to move away from his four-seam fastball and embracing his sinker, cutter and curveball would make him even more similar to Matz and could help his numbers a bit, too.
2025 team: Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)
You probably watched Dominguez pitch recently — you had plenty of chances with his 12 postseason appearances for Toronto. In many of those outings, and plenty in the regular season, you had to hold your breath, but he has been beating his ERA estimators for years now. His sweeper (mostly used vs. right-handed hitters) and splitter (mostly used vs. lefties) have emerged as Dominguez’s most effective pitches, and his upper-90s fastball and sinker function to keep hitters honest (and occasionally get hit hard or yield a walk). I think a two-year deal makes the most sense here given his high-wire style of pitching.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M AAV)
Castro’s defensive metrics regressed in 2025 to minus-9 runs across second base, shortstop and third base after he posted a plus-4 across those three positions in 2024. The difference was mostly his lateral range — but, oddly, his defensive numbers in the outfield got a little bit better in 2025. Either way, Castro is a switch-hitting utility player who’s young for a free agent and has been a give-or-take average offensive threat for three years now. He’s probably not a starter for a contender, but he could be insurance for a contender or a starter for a second-division team.
2025 team: San Francisco Giants
2026 Opening Day age: 43
Projected contract: 1 years, $13 million
It’s worth noting that Max Scherzer would be the next right-handed starter behind Verlander, but look at the list below of other free agents of note — there might be 15 more behind Scherzer who could fit in a rotation next year, so smart teams looking for length will separate themselves by whom they pluck out of that group. Verlander signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Giants last year, and they got what they paid for: He was even a bit better in 2025 than 2024 by some measures. I assume he’ll get a little less this year, though he could also get the same contract again.
Others of note
C: Danny Jansen, Christian Vazquez, Gary Sanchez, Victor Caratini, James McCann, Luke Maile, Mitch Garver, Elias Diaz, Tom Murphy, Martin Maldonado, Sandy Leon
1B/DH: Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell, Ty France, Lewin Diaz (KBO), Baek Ho Kang (KBO), Rowdy Tellez, Carlos Santana, Dominic Smith, Jesse Winker
2B: Luis Rengifo, Dylan Moore, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Adam Frazier, Brendan Rodgers, Kyle Farmer, Michael Stefanic, Donovan Solano, Tyler Wade
SS: Amed Rosario, Miguel Rojas, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jorge Mateo, Paul DeJong, Jose Iglesias, Orlando Arcia, Wilmer Flores, Coco Montes, Jon Berti
3B: Yoan Moncada, Sung-moon Song (KBO), Justin Turner
OF: Mike Yastrzemski, Max Kepler, Rob Refsnyder, Cedric Mullins, Lane Thomas, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Randal Grichuk, Miguel Andujar, Tommy Pham, Ryan Ward, Austin Slater, Michael A. Taylor, Dustin Harris, Daz Cameron, Billy McKinney
RHS: Max Scherzer, Ryan Weiss (KBO), Jo-Hsi Hsu (CPBL), Charlie Morton, Griffin Canning, Tyler Mahle, Dustin May, Chris Paddack, Zach Eflin, Jon Duplantier (NPB), Tomoyuki Sugano, Michael Lorenzen, Miles Mikolas, German Marquez, Jon Gray, Alex Cobb, Walker Buehler, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Anderson (KBO), Aaron Civale, James Naile (KBO), Paul Blackburn, Erick Fedde, Andre Jackson (NPB), Kona Takahashi (NPB), Hiroto Saiki (NPB), Chris Flexen
LHS: Tyler Anderson, Anthony Kay (NPB), Foster Griffin (NPB), Patrick Corbin, Martin Perez, Jose Quintana, Jordan Montgomery, Alec Gamboa (KBO), Zach Logue (KBO), Andrew Heaney, Kyle Hart, Wade Miley, Nestor Cortes, Connor Thomas
RHR: Ryan Helsley, Shawn Armstrong, Hunter Harvey, Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Kenley Jansen, Paul Sewald, Jakob Junis, Chris Martin, Luis A. Garcia, Shelby Miller, Jordan Romano, Tommy Kahnle, Michael Kopech, Ryan Brasier, Derek Law, Ryne Stanek, Anthony DeSclafani, Craig Kimbrel, Hunter Strickland, Luke Jackson, Scott Barlow, Jonathan Loaisiga, Sho Iwasaki (NPB), Drew Smith, Connor Seabold, Elvin Rodriguez, Alexis Diaz, Carl Edwards, Chris Devenski, Jose Urena, Liam Hendriks, Lou Trivino, Rafael Montero, Ryan Pressly, Takahiro Norimoto (NPB), Miguel Castro, Anthony Maldonado, Scott McGough
LHR: Gregory Soto, Sean Newcomb, Caleb Thielbar, Jose Alvarado, Justin Wilson, Jalen Beeks, Ryan Yarbrough, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Tim Mayza, Tyler Alexander, Andrew Chafin, Ryan Borucki, Genesis Cabrera, Ben Bowden
LONDON — Prince Harry went to Toronto for events marking the end of World War I and found himself on an apology tour for offending Canadians.
Speaking to a military charity Thursday night, the Duke of Sussex sought to once again address the “blue-hatted elephant in the room.” He was referring to his widely ridiculed choice to wear a Dodgers cap at a World Series game in Los Angeles against the Blue Jays.
It was seen as a major snub in Canada, a British Commonwealth nation, where his father, King Charles III, is the head of state. He was blasted on social media in the Great White North.
Harry apologized for the blunder and tried to put a humorous spin on the incident he referred to as “Hat Gate.”
“When you’re missing a lot of hair on top and you’re sitting under floodlights, you’ll take any hat that’s available,” he joked in an interview with Canadian broadcaster CTV.
He then donned a Blue Jays cap that happened to be an arm’s length away.
The incident was perceived by some as a test of his allegiance between his birthplace and his adopted home in the U.S. The prince and his wife, Meghan, stepped down from royal duties in 2020 and moved to Canada briefly before settling in California.
The appearance of Harry and Meghan at Game 4 of the series — which Los Angeles went on to win in seven games — also rankled some Dodgers fans who were upset at their prime position behind home plate.
The couple sat in the first row in front of Los Angeles royalty in the Dodgers’ Sandy Koufax and the Lakers‘ Magic Johnson, who is a part owner of the team.
Harry said the couple, who live about an hour west of Los Angeles in the ritzy coastal enclave of Montecito, had been invited to the game by the team owner.
He felt “under duress” and wore the hat as a polite gesture, something he told the Toronto audience that he thought Canadians — known for their civility — would support.
Harry was in Canada for two days of events and meetings in advance of Remembrance Day on Tuesday that honors armed forces members who died in the line of duty.
“I am truly sorry for wearing a Dodgers cap,” he said to applause at a dinner for the True Patriot Love Foundation, a charity for Canadian service members and veterans.
He then played up his connections to the country, including the fact that his actor wife, before they married, lived so long in Toronto filming the show “Suits” that many thought she was Canadian.
“Hopefully you can forgive her as a native Californian for her Dodgers loyalty, even if for just one evening,” he said. “But all jokes aside, this city has always meant a great deal to me. You provided me a wife.”
Harry insisted that he was rooting for the Blue Jays for the final three games of the series — an admission he told CTV might make his return to Los Angeles more difficult.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024