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There is no Juan Soto in MLB free agency this year. There is definitely no Shohei Ohtani. But although there might not be a player who will inspire people to track the flight paths of private jets on social media, it’s an intriguing class of free agents nonetheless — one especially deep in power hitters.

Let’s look at 13 of the most interesting free agents, assuming a few likely player opt-outs, and some potential best fits for each player. We’ll leave out some of the top relievers — Edwin Diaz (opt-out), Robert Suarez (opt-out), Devin Williams — and instead focus on the top position players and starting pitchers available this winter.

Players are ranked in order of their Baseball-Reference WAR from 2025.


2025 stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBIs, 13 SB, 5.0 WAR
2026 age: 30

Best fit: New York Mets

Bellinger surprisingly tops the list in 2025 WAR, although that doesn’t by any means suggest he’s going to get the biggest contract. Indeed, although he offers positional versatility with his ability to play all three outfield positions as well as first base, teams will be skeptical of his 2025 numbers since he hit .302 with 18 home runs and a .909 OPS at Yankee Stadium with its short porch compared with .241 with 11 home runs and a .715 OPS on the road. Bellinger works for the Mets both in center field — heck, they were playing 33-year-old infielder Jeff McNeil out there at times — and at first, if they don’t re-sign Pete Alonso.

Another possible fit: New York Yankees

A reunion with the Yankees is possible, but if the Yankees are committed to Jasson Dominguez in left field and give Spencer Jones a shot in center, they’re going to be reluctant to give Bellinger a long-term contract. Given some of their recent returns on long deals (DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton), they probably don’t want to get sucked into another big contract for a non-superstar player, no matter how good Bellinger was in 2025.


2025 stats: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBIs, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 33

Best fit: Philadelphia Phillies

Everyone expects Schwarber to return to the Phillies, coming off his 56-homer season and with his added value as one of the best teammates in the game. Nothing is guaranteed, however, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is balancing a lot of decisions this offseason. J.T. Realmuto is also a free agent, Ranger Suarez is a free agent and Zack Wheeler‘s return is a question, plus the team in general is getting older. But it’s still a team in a championship window — if Schwarber remains in the lineup.

Another possible fit: Mets

Think the Mets would love to steal Schwarber away from the Phillies? Addition and then subtraction from your rival. Would Schwarber leave the Phillies for the enemy? Players are a lot less loyal than we’d like to believe. Starling Marte was the Mets’ primary DH and he’s a free agent, plus consider: The Mets signed Soto and Alonso had a better season — yet they still scored two fewer runs than in 2024. It was an above-average offense, fifth in the NL in runs, but it wasn’t a great offense. Adding Schwarber could take it to the next level.


2025 stats: 12-8. 3.20 ERA, 157 IP, 154 H, 38 BB, 151 SO, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 30

Best fit: Detroit Tigers

Suarez has been a steady and underrated pitcher since 2021, with a 3.25 ERA over the past five seasons, relying on a six-pitch repertoire that allows him to overcome below-average fastball velocity. He always gets dinged up at some point, so he’s a 150-inning pitcher as opposed to a 180-inning guy, but that still makes him a good fit for the Tigers, who need rotation depth, should have plenty of room in the payroll and could trade Tarik Skubal (sorry, Tigers fans).

Another possible fit: Toronto Blue Jays

Suarez will have a lot of interest even though he lacks that blistering fastball. Indeed, his lack of No. 1-starter pedigree will bring more teams into the bidding, even if he’s expected to get a nine-figure deal. The Blue Jays are an interesting fit here. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are free agents; Shane Bieber has a player option; and Kevin Gausman is a free agent after the 2026 season. They’ll be looking for some long-term stability in the rotation.


2025 stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBIs, 25 SB, 4.5 WAR
2026 age: 29

Best fit: Los Angeles Dodgers

If healthy, Tucker would have led this list in WAR — he was hitting .291/.395/.537 for the Chicago Cubs at the end of June when he suffered a fracture in his right hand, which he tried to play through. But he hit just .225 the rest of the way. Indeed, he’s projected to get the biggest contract of the offseason, perhaps as much as $400 million.

As good as he has been, there are some Anthony Rendon vibes here: Tucker has now been injured two years in a row (he also missed much of September with a calf injury); he’s turning 29; his speed/range Statcast metrics aren’t great (26th percentile in both categories); and he’s not a “face of the franchise” type of personality, which you normally expect for $400 million.

Could the Dodgers absorb another huge contract? Well, why not? The Dodgers are the best fit of “will spend money” and “have need,” considering they got nothing from left field in 2025 and suddenly have concerns about Mookie Betts‘ long-term impact at the plate after his subpar (for him) season.

Another possible fit: San Francisco Giants

The Giants, of course, have been trying to land an elite offensive player in free agency forever — finally trading for Rafael Devers last June. Giants corner outfielders hit just .237/.309/.378 with 37 home runs and 12 stolen bases, so adding Tucker to the lineup would give them a much-needed second lefty power hitter (with rookie slugger Bryce Eldridge likely to take over at first base, too).


2025 stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 192 IP, 171 H, 68 BB, 187 SO, 3.8 WAR
2026 age: 32

Best fit: Baltimore Orioles

At some point, the Orioles will sign the front-line starter they need, right? Right?! They finished 24th in rotation ERA at 4.65 and had seven starters who made at least 10 starts in 2025 — and four of them had ERAs over 5.00. That’s not going to cut it in the AL East. Trevor Rogers (1.81 ERA in 18 starts) did emerge in the second half, and Kyle Bradish returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of the season, but the Orioles have lacked that durable No. 1-type starter and Valdez is second in innings pitched over the past four seasons.

Another possible fit: Houston Astros

The Astros have the need to bring Valdez back as the rotation was mostly a mess in 2025 aside from him and Hunter Brown. The payroll, however, looks pretty maxed out with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker and Josh Hader (they’re also paying Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier a combined $39 million in 2026). Don’t rule out a return, but the Astros have let other stars leave in free agency — Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.


2025 stats: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBIs, 3.6 WAR
2026 age: 34

Best fit: Athletics

The A’s aren’t often included in lists like this one — especially for a player coming off 49 home runs — but a lot of factors could push Suarez to the A’s: his age, his below-average OBP and strikeout rate, his subpar production after he was traded to Seattle. The A’s started nine players at third base in 2025 (players who combined for just 10 home runs), and Suarez would certainly bring power and durability — he has missed just seven games the past three seasons. He’s also a good clubhouse guy who would fit in with the team’s younger players. The A’s surprised people by signing Luis Severino last offseason, so they could land Suarez in a similar scenario.

Other possible fits: Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners

The Brewers (.234, 11 HR, .650 OPS) and Tigers (.221, 11 HR, .629) both made the playoffs despite subpar production at third base. Milwaukee loves high-contact offensive players, so maybe Suarez doesn’t fit there, and Detroit might not want to add another high-strikeout rate guy in the middle of the lineup on top of Riley Greene. The D-backs and Mariners are familiar with Suarez — he played for each in 2025 — but both have young players in Jordan Lawlar and Colt Emerson whom they could play at third.


2025 stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBIs, 3.5 WAR
2026 age: 32

Best fit: Boston Red Sox

Bregman hit free agency last year and didn’t sign until the middle of February, a three-year, $120 million deal with opt-outs after both 2025 and 2026. He played well enough with the Red Sox that he’s likely to test free agency, even though a quad strain limited him to 114 games. After a hot start, he didn’t hit nearly as well after returning in July — .250/.338/.386. The big surprise is that the pull-happy Bregman hit better on the road (.875 OPS) than at Fenway (.761 OPS).

Still, the Red Sox remain the best fit. He was an important veteran presence for Boston’s young position players, and he’s a right-handed bat in a lineup otherwise heavy in lefties (Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida). Bregman’s age presents some risk on a long-term deal, but although his speed metrics are sinking (17th percentile), he still has good range at third base and brought his OBP back up after it dropped to .315 in 2024.

Other possible fits: Tigers, Yankees, Phillies

Bregman’s contact ability makes him a likely fit for the Tigers — and he’ll be too expensive for the Brewers. The interesting long shot candidates would be the Yankees and Phillies. The Yankees have Ryan McMahon under contract, but he posted a .641 OPS after coming over from the Colorado Rockies at the trade deadline and his strikeout issues are a concern. The Phillies have Alec Bohm in his final year of team control, but Bohm produced just 1.3 WAR in 2025 and the Phillies are a little tired of his lack of postseason production (.225, 2 HR, 14 RBIs in 38 playoff games). Bregman’s fire might be what the Phillies need.


2025 stats: .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 31

Best fit: Mets

Alonso’s stature — and ability to hit home runs and drive in runs — means he’s the highest-profile free agent alongside Schwarber, even if his WAR puts him lower on this list. Alonso has averaged 42 home runs per 162 games throughout his career, and his durability is one of his selling points — he hasn’t missed a game the past two seasons. Alonso was a free agent last year and there wasn’t much interest, so he went back to the Mets on a deal that gave him an opt-out and responded with a better campaign in 2025.

Will there be more demand this offseason? Perhaps. But Alonso is a 31-year-old first baseman who is a below-average defender. He has elite power but not elite on-base percentages. That all makes him a “high risk” category, and he’s not quite in the class of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, the first basemen who received big nine-figure deals since 2022. It’s hard to envision Alonso leaving the Mets, but president of baseball operations David Stearns won’t overpay to bring him back — and Alonso might not be so willing to give the Mets a sweetheart of a deal this time around.

Other possible fits: Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals

The Texas Rangers didn’t get the output they wanted from Jake Burger; the Red Sox could move on from Triston Casas; and the Phillies (if they don’t sign Schwarber) and Atlanta Braves might consider Alonso as a DH, but let’s toss out the Marlins. Their first basemen hit just .234 with 15 home runs. They haven’t had a 2-WAR first baseman since Justin Bour in 2017 or a 3-WAR first baseman since Derrek Lee in 2002. Teams always think they can fill first base with adequate offense, but the Marlins are proof that’s not always the case. Alonso is also from Florida, which might help. A more realistic long shot might be the Nationals, who need a big bopper and have plenty of room in the payroll.


2025 stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 28

Best fit: Giants

Bichette’s free agency will be fascinating. Given his poor defensive metrics at shortstop, it’s almost a certainty teams will be looking at him as a second or third baseman rather than a shortstop — even the Blue Jays (the team he has been with his entire career), who would move Andres Gimenez to shortstop. That’s not a bad thing for Bichette, as it opens up his possible destinations to more teams if he’s willing to change positions.

Although he is a .294 hitter, it will be interesting to see how he ages: He already doesn’t run well (21st percentile in speed) and he doesn’t walk much, so his offensive production is heavily reliant on his batting average. We mentioned the Giants as a potential fit for Kyle Tucker. The same goes for Bichette, as Giants second basemen hit just .216/.273/.342.

Another possible fit: Kansas City Royals

OK, can the Royals realistically afford to sign Bichette? Probably not, but a double-play combination of Bobby Witt Jr. and Bichette would be a lot of fun, and Bichette’s style of hitting would be a good fit for that park. Royals second basemen hit just .236 with 11 home runs, and we know the lineup needs something else. The Royals aren’t the Pittsburgh Pirates or Tampa Bay Rays. They will spend some money — although there isn’t much wiggle room based on the 2025 payroll — and there is a contention window right now with their current rotation.


2025 stats: .295/.353/.462, 20 HR, 92 RBIs, 30 SB, 3.1 WAR
2026 age: 29

Best fit: Mariners

Naylor was the perfect fit for the Mariners, who had not only struggled at first base but also needed a more contact-oriented hitter like Naylor for the middle of the lineup when they traded for him at this year’s deadline. He unveiled one of the most surprising secret weapons, going 30-for-32 as a base stealer despite being one of the slowest runners in baseball. Although many hitters are reluctant to sign with the Mariners, Naylor loves hitting at T-Mobile Park, with a career line of .304/.335/.534. The Mariners should have room to bring him back.

Another possible fit: Rangers

Rangers first basemen/DHs combined for a .657 OPS — only the Rockies were worse. Texas still has Jake Burger and Joc Pederson (who will probably exercise his $18.5 million player option), but both had sub-.290 OBPs, so the Rangers will consider upgrading.


2025 stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 168 IP, 152 H, 71 BB, 215 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30

Best fit: Cubs

Cease’s eventual contract will far outpace his ERA and low WAR from 2025. Teams will focus on the power arm (average fastball of 97.1 mph), the high strikeout rate and the durability (five straight seasons with at least 32 starts). A return to the Cubs would be full circle as they originally drafted Cease in the sixth round out of high school in 2014 before trading him to the Chicago White Sox in the Jose Quintana deal.

The 2025 Cubs were a prime example of why teams prefer those power arms in the postseason. With Cade Horton injured, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga were their top two starters, two lefties without high K rates. They have plenty of payroll room to make a big rotation signing.

Another possible fit: San Diego Padres (and every other contender)

With Cease and Michael King (who has a player opt-out) in free agency, the Padres would have Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, Joe Musgrove (returning from Tommy John surgery) and perhaps Mason Miller in their rotation — and the options thin out in a hurry after that. But is there room in a payroll that is already pushing $200 million heading into the offseason?


2025 stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 192 IP, 176 H, 66 BB, 175 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30

Best fit: Diamondbacks

Like Cease, Gallen is hitting free agency with a high ERA. Unlike Cease, he averages 93.5 mph with his fastball instead of 97. Gallen’s home run rate nearly doubled from 0.8 per nine innings in 2024 to 1.5 in 2025, and his strikeout rate plummeted to a career-low 21.5%, a notable 5-percentage-points decline from his career rate entering the season. He did pitch better the final two months with a 3.32 ERA. Still, maybe some of the questions push Gallen back to the Diamondbacks, who will enter the offseason down him, Merrill Kelly and Corbin Burnes (Tommy John surgery) from their initial 2025 rotation.

Another possible fit: Los Angeles Angels

Does anyone want to play for the Angels? Their recent free agent signings have been more of the third-tier type, but they have room in the payroll and two pitchers from their 2025 rotation hitting free agency in Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks. They signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal last offseason and might do something similar this offseason with a starter like Gallen.


Munetaka Murakami, 3B/1B (Japan)

2025 stats: .286/.392/.659, 24 HR, 52 RBIs
2026 age: 26

Best fit: Mariners

A big left-handed slugger, Murakami has been a star in Japan since he hit 36 home runs as a 19-year-old in 2019. He followed that up with a career-high 56 home runs in 2022. He missed time this past season with an oblique injury but hit 24 home runs in 69 games. He does strike out a concerning amount — 168 times in 140 games in 2023 and 180 times in 143 games in 2024 — so projects as more of a low-average, 30-homer slugger. Murakami’s defense is considered below average at both corner positions, but his age helps make him an attractive free agent.

We mentioned Colt Emerson as a replacement for Eugenio Suarez at third base for the Mariners, but a year in Triple-A wouldn’t hurt, and Emerson could then take over at shortstop in 2027. That leaves Murakami as a fit for third base, or a backup option to Josh Naylor at first base. The Mariners have certainly shown they’re OK with strikeouts if it comes with power.

Another possible fit: Dodgers

The Dodgers? Hey, you have to consider the Dodgers a possibility for any Japanese player. They obviously have Freddie Freeman locked into first base and have a $10 million option on Max Muncy, but note that Murakami did play a few games in the outfield in 2025. Given their hole in left field, maybe they fake left-field defense with Murakami for a year and then have him replace Muncy at third base in 2027. In the bigger picture, the Dodgers had the oldest group of position players in 2025. Only Andy Pages was younger than 30 among the top 11 regulars. They need to get younger, and Murakami is younger — and less expensive to sign — than Kyle Tucker.

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s close ahead of first committee ranking?

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who's in? Who's out? Who's close ahead of first committee ranking?

The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.

It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.

Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.

First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.

Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee


Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.

First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.

Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.

Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin


Big 12

Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).

First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.

Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia


ACC

Would be in: Virginia

Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.

First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.

Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.


Group of 5

Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.

Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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Ohtani, Judge up for consecutive MVP awards

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Ohtani, Judge up for consecutive MVP awards

NEW YORK — Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani and New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge are in the running for consecutive MVP awards.

Ohtani joined Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber and New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto as finalists for the National League honor. Judge, Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh and Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez are in the mix for American League MVP.

Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt and Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy also could be repeat winners when the results are announced next week. Skubal, Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown and Boston Red Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet are finalists for the AL Cy Young Award.

Brown secured an extra selection for Houston after the first round in next year’s amateur draft under the collective bargaining agreement’s prospect promotion incentive. He earned the pick because he was among the top 100 prospects from at least two of Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com heading into the 2023 season, accrued a full season of service in his rookie season and had a top-three finish in Cy Young voting before he became arbitration eligible.

Ohtani is going for his second MVP award with the Dodgers and his fourth overall. He also won with the Angels in 2021 and 2023. Judge is trying for his third MVP win — all with the Yankees.

Ohtani, 31, hit .282 with 55 homers and 102 RBIs in 158 games this year, helping the Dodgers win a second straight World Series championship. The Japanese right-hander also went 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts in his return to the mound after a second major elbow surgery.

Judge, 33, batted .331 with 53 homers, 114 RBIs and a major league-leading 1.145 OPS in 152 games with New York. He also was voted MVP in 2022.

While Ramírez was terrific once again, the AL MVP race is expected to come down to Judge and Raleigh, a switch-hitting catcher who led the majors with 60 homers for Seattle during the regular season.

The top three finishers in voting for each of the major individual awards presented annually by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America were announced Monday night on MLB Network. Balloting is conducted before the postseason.

World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers is a finalist for the NL Cy Young, along with Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez. Skenes was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2024.

Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin, Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton and Brewers infielder Caleb Durbin are competing for top NL rookie this year.

The finalists for AL Rookie of the Year are Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony and the Athletics’ duo of Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson. Kurtz hit .290 with 36 homers and 86 RBIs in 117 games for the A’s, and Wilson batted .311 in 125 games.

Vogt was joined by Toronto’s John Schneider and Seattle’s Dan Wilson as finalists for AL Manager of the Year. Philadelphia’s Rob Thomson and Cincinnati’s Terry Francona are in the mix for the NL honor with Murphy.

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Braves promote bench coach Weiss to manager

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Braves promote bench coach Weiss to manager

The Atlanta Braves hired Walt Weiss as manager Monday, turning to their longtime bench coach in hopes of a turnaround after they missed the playoffs for the first time in seven years.

Weiss, 61, managed the Colorado Rockies from 2013 to 2016, going 283-365 and never finishing higher than third place. He inherits a talented Braves team that finished 76-86 and was ravaged by injuries.

Atlanta returns a strong core led by former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr, first baseman Matt Olson, third baseman Austin Riley, future star catcher Drake Baldwin and a rotation featuring Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach. After a fourth-place finish, Atlanta still could be among the favorites in the National League East, with division champion Philadelphia looking at significant changes over the winter, New York trying to rebound from a late-season collapse and Miami still at least a year away from contention.

Weiss emerged as the favorite to take over from Brian Snitker, who led Atlanta to its 2021 World Series title and accepted a senior adviser role with the team after the expiration of his contract following the 2025 season. Weiss joined Atlanta in 2018 as bench coach and had been Snitker’s consigliere since.

A 14-year major leaguer, Weiss was a glove-first shortstop who won a World Series with Oakland in 1989. The Braves will need a new shortstop for the 2026 season after Ha-Seong Kim opted out of his contract Monday.

Much of Atlanta’s team for next season is already in place. Center fielder Michael Harris II, left fielder Jurickson Profar and second baseman Ozzie Albies are slated to return, along with catcher Sean Murphy, who could be traded or split time at catcher and designated hitter with Baldwin. Though Atlanta is flush with starting-pitching options — young right-handers Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, along with right-handers Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder and left-hander Joey Wentz are candidates — its bullpen is a work in progress, with closer Raisel Iglesias headed to free agency this winter.

In a busy offseason of managerial hirings, Weiss was the seventh new manager installed. San Diego and Colorado, which also needs a new head of baseball operations, are the lone teams remaining without a manager.

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