MLB wild-card era awards: Best October players, greatest games, bonkers moments and more
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David Schoenfield
The MLB wild-card era began in 1995 with an iconic series that ended with an iconic photo: Ken Griffey Jr. peeking out from a pile of Seattle Mariners teammates with a smile as big as Mount Rainier after scoring the winning run in the American League Division Series.
Thirty years later, the 2025 season ended with another iconic series and photo: Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the middle of a swarm of his Los Angeles Dodgers teammates, his expression a mix of joy and exhaustion after his legendary performance in winning the final two games of the World Series.
Since the expanded playoffs began — initially eight teams, then 10 and now 12 — there have been 1,097 postseason games. The New York Yankees have played in the most games (232) and have the most wins (131) and championships (five). The Pittsburgh Pirates have played the fewest games (eight) and have the fewest wins (three). Sixteen of the 30 franchises have won the World Series in that span, and another seven have played in one.
Let’s celebrate the past 30 years of playoff baseball by handing out awards and superlatives as we look back at the greatest October players, the games we won’t forget, the moments that make us cry tears of joy — and tears of anguish — and more.
The all-time wild-card era team
October legends were once made in one moment or one series. With more rounds and more games, October greatness is now accumulated over many moments and series. Here’s the All-October team from the past 30 years, considering results only since 1995.
C: Yadier Molina (.273/.326/.357, 4 HR, 36 RBIs, 104 G, 2 rings)
Catcher was the hardest position to fill as nobody stands out as a lock. Jorge Posada leads in home runs (11) and RBIs (42) and played in six World Series, although he didn’t hit particularly well in them (.211). Molina can’t match Posada’s power but did hit .328/.395/.403 in four World Series.
1B: Albert Pujols (.319/.422/.572, 19 HR, 54 RBIs, 88 G, 2 rings)
Prime Pujols was on another level. He hit .500 with four home runs in the 2004 National League Championship Series and his home run off Brad Lidge in the 2005 NLCS finally landed three weeks ago. Pujols hit .478 in the 2011 NLCS and followed that up with a three-homer game in the World Series. He had more walks than strikeouts in his postseason career.
2B: Jose Altuve (.271/.337/.505, 27 HR, 56 RBIs, 105 G, 2 rings)
An easy choice at second base, although with an asterisk if you wish. Altuve’s home/road splits in the postseason from 2017 to 2019: 1.154 OPS at home, .705 on the road. His name is all over the all-time playoff leaderboard, however, including ranking second in home runs and runs scored. His 21 runs in the 2021 postseason are tied for the most in a single postseason.
3B: Pablo Sandoval (.338/.386/.535, 6 HR, 20 RBIs, 42 G, 3 rings)
Chipper Jones, Justin Turner and Alex Bregman merit consideration based on more games played, but Sandoval made a huge impact in his three postseasons with the San Francisco Giants. He was the World Series MVP in their sweep in 2012 thanks to a three-homer game and then hit .429 in the 2014 World Series.
SS: Derek Jeter (.308/.374/.465, 20 HR, 61 RBIs, 158 G, 5 rings)
Corey Seager is a two-time World Series MVP, but Jeter’s volume, overall productivity and five rings earn him the nod here. In basically a full season of postseason play — 158 total career games — Jeter finished with 200 hits, 111 runs and an .838 OPS that was higher than his career mark in the regular season. He was World Series MVP in 2000, when he hit .409 in a five-game win over the New York Mets.
LF: Manny Ramirez (.285/.394/.544, 29 HR, 78 RBIs, 111 G, 2 rings)
The all-time leader in postseason home runs, Ramirez appeared in 11 different postseasons with Cleveland, the Boston Red Sox and the Dodgers, homering in 17 of the 23 series he played in. Amazingly, the Red Sox beat the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS even though Ramirez didn’t drive in a run, but he then won World Series MVP in Boston’s four-game sweep of St. Louis.
CF: Bernie Williams (.275/.371/.480, 22 HR, 80 RBIs, 121 G, 4 rings)
Always the underappreciated star on the Yankees teams that won four titles in five years from 1996 to 2000, Williams is the all-time postseason leader in RBIs, although his best work came in the LCS rather than the World Series.
RF: Lance Berkman (.317/.417/.532, 9 HR, 41 RBIs, 52 G, 1 ring)
Berkman was a longtime star with the Houston Astros and then had one final blast of glory with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011, when he helped them win the World Series. He hit .423 in that World Series and .410 in the two total he played in.
OF: George Springer (.271/.346/.534, 23 HR, 48 RBIs, 83 G, 1 ring)
Let’s give a fourth outfield spot to Springer, the 2017 World Series MVP who ranks third in playoff home runs and first in championship win probability added. In three World Series, he has hit .351/.444/.727 with seven home runs in 19 games.
UT: Enrique Hernández (.272/.339/.486, 16 HR, 42 RBIs, 103 G, 3 rings)
No player has stepped up his game in the playoffs like Hernández, who has a .707 career OPS in the regular season compared with .826 in the postseason. He has both a three-homer game in the playoffs (2017 NLCS) and a game with four extra-base hits (2021 ALDS), and his double play to end Game 6 of the 2025 World Series was a defensive play for the ages.
DH: David Ortiz (.289/.404/.543, 17 HR, 61 RBIs, 85 G, 3 rings)
Has anyone delivered as many clutch hits as Big Papi? His postseason legend began with his back-to-back walk-off hits in extra innings for the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS and then was cemented with his World Series performance in 2013, when he hit .688/.760/1.188. The Cardinals finally just quit pitching to him, intentionally walking him three times in Game 6.
SP: Curt Schilling (10-1, 2.12 ERA, 15 GS, 102 IP, 92 SO, 3 rings)
Schilling had an all-time great postseason with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001, throwing three straight complete games to begin the playoffs and winning co-MVP honors in the World Series. He had the infamous “Bloody Sock” start in the 2004 ALCS, but everyone forgets his next start: one run in six innings in Game 2 of the World Series as the Red Sox went on to snap the curse.
SP: Madison Bumgarner (8-3, 2.11 ERA, 14 GS, 102 IP, 87 SO, 3 rings)
He had his legendary postseason run in 2014, but check out Bumgarner’s career record in the World Series: 4-0, one save (his five innings to close out Game 7 in 2014), with one run and only 14 hits allowed in 36 innings.
SP: Jon Lester (9-7, 2.51 ERA, 22 GS, 154 IP, 133 SO, 3 rings)
Lester won two rings with the Red Sox and one with the Chicago Cubs, going 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in six career World Series appearances.
SP: Andy Pettitte (19-11, 3.81 ERA, 44 GS, 276 IP, 183 SO, 5 rings)
He had some clunkers along the way, but Pettitte makes it here based on volume — most starts, most wins, most innings pitched — and some huge wins along the way, including 8⅓ scoreless innings in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series (when the series was tied), another scoreless start in the 1998 World Series and four wins in the 2009 postseason.
SP: Chris Carpenter (10-4, 3.00 ERA, 18 GS, 108 IP, 68 SO, 2 rings)
Carpenter had one of the great clutch postseasons in 2011, outdueling Roy Halladay with a 1-0 shutout in Game 5 of the NLDS and then starting three times in the World Series and winning twice, including Game 7 on three days of rest.
RP: Mariano Rivera (8-1, 0.70 ERA, 42 SV, 141 IP, 110 SO, 5 rings)
Rivera was so untouchable — he allowed just 13 runs and 11 earned runs in 141 innings — that he might be regarded as the postseason MVP of the entire wild-card era. He allowed just two home runs, and in his 42 saves, he allowed a total of just four runs. In an era of one-inning closers, 31 of his saves were more than one inning, including 14 of two innings.
Best single-season postseasons
We just saw Yamamoto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. post huge results this past October. Let’s see if either cracks the top five.
Top five hitters
1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals (.397/.465/.794, 5 HR, 21 RBIs)
Freese has been a reluctant hero, even declining an invitation to join the Cardinals Hall of Fame in 2023, saying he wasn’t “deserving” of the honor. But what a postseason he had: His 21 RBIs are the second most in one postseason, and he was the NLCS and World Series MVP in 2011, hitting a two-out, two-run triple in the ninth inning of Game 6 of the World Series to send the game into extra innings and then delivering the walk-off home run in the 11th. In Game 7, he hit a game-tying two-run double as the Cardinals went on to win.
2. Barry Bonds, 2002 San Francisco Giants (.356/.581/.978, 8 HR 16 RBIs)
Bonds had famously struggled in the postseason during his career, but he was unstoppable in 2002 as the Giants reached Game 7 of the World Series — drawing an incredible 27 walks (13 intentional) along the way. His home run off Troy Percival in Game 2, an estimated 485 feet, might be the longest in World Series history.
3. David Ortiz, 2004 Boston Red Sox (.400/.515/.764, 5 HR, 19 RBIs)
Ortiz had his heroics with those walk-off hits in the ALCS and added a two-run homer in the first inning of Game 7. He then got the Red Sox going in the World Series with a three-run home run in the bottom of the first inning of Game 1 as the Red Sox went on to a four-game sweep.
4. Randy Arozarena, 2020 Tampa Bay Rays (.377/.442/.831, 10 HR, 14 RBIs)
The Rays played 20 postseason games and Arozarena homered in half of them. He homered three times in the ALDS, four times in the ALCS and three more times in the World Series, although the Rays lost in six games.
5. Carlos Beltran, 2004 Houston Astros (.435/.536/1.022, 8 HR, 14 RBI)
The Astros lost in the NLCS, but Beltran’s performance must be included. For two weeks, he played baseball as well as anyone has ever played it, bashing eight home runs in 12 games, scoring 21 runs (tied for the most in one postseason), stealing six bases and making several spectacular plays in center field.
Honorable mentions: Scott Spiezio, 2002 Anaheim Angels (19 RBIs); Alex Rodriguez, 2009 New York Yankees (.365, 18 RBIs); Corey Seager, 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers (NLCS and World Series MVP); Adolis Garcia, 2023 Texas Rangers (record 22 RBIs); Ernie Clement, 2025 Toronto Blue Jays (.411, record 30 hits); Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 2025 Toronto Blue Jays (.397, 8 HR)
Top five pitchers
1. Madison Bumgarner, 2014 San Francisco Giants (4-1, 1.03 ERA, 52⅔ IP, 28 H, 45 SO)
Bumgarner pitched a shutout in the wild-card game, allowed one run in Game 1 of the World Series, pitched another shutout in Game 5 and then pitched five scoreless innings to close out Game 7 (when he was oddly credited with a save instead of the win).
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers (5-1, 1.45 ERA, 37⅓ IP, 23 H, 33 SO)
Yamamoto didn’t have the volume of Bumgarner, but he became the first pitcher with back-to-back complete games in the postseason since 2001, and then he won both Games 6 and 7 of the World Series, getting eight outs in Game 7 — in the most tension-filled moments imaginable — after throwing 96 pitches the night before.
3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks (4-0, 1.12 ERA, 48⅓ IP, 25 H, 56 SO)
In six starts, Schilling tossed three complete games, held batters to a .150 average and had a 56-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just three home runs … in the middle of the steroid era. He ended up with two no-decisions in his three World Series starts but shared MVP honors with the next pitcher on the list.
4. Randy Johnson, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks (5-1, 1.52 ERA, 41.1 IP, 25 H, 47 SO)
Johnson lost his first start of the 2001 NLDS — and, remarkably, that was his seventh consecutive losing decision in the playoffs going back to the 1995 ALCS with Seattle. Then, he turned it on: a three-hit shutout in Game 1 of the NLCS, two runs in seven innings in Game 5, another three-hit shutout in World Series Game 2, then a win in Game 6. Like Yamamoto, he came on in relief in Game 7 and got the win when Arizona walked it off in the bottom of the ninth.
5. Stephen Strasburg, 2019 Washington Nationals (5-0, 1.98 ERA, 36.1 IP, 30 H, 47 SO)
Strasburg got the win in the wild-card game with three innings of scoreless relief, had two double-digit strikeout games leading into the World Series, and then twice beat a mighty Astros team in the Fall Classic, allowing just four runs in 14⅓ innings. Like Chris Carpenter in 2011, it would be the last good baseball Strasburg ever pitched: He would go on to win just one more game in his career.
Honorable mentions: Josh Beckett, 2003 Florida Marlins (two shutouts, including the World Series clincher) and 2007 Boston Red Sox (four starts, four wins, 1.20 ERA); Kenny Rogers, 2006 Detroit Tigers (three starts, no runs allowed in 23 innings); Cliff Lee, 2009 Philadelphia Phillies (4-0, 1.56 ERA); Nathan Eovaldi, 2023 Texas Rangers (5-0, 2.95 ERA)
Best single-game performances
As you probably well know, this past postseason was pretty spectacular. Here are the top five single-game performances of the past 30 years, focusing more on gameplay than clutch moments. Of course, 2025 tops this list.
1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers, 2025 NLCS Game 4
No player had ever hit three home runs and struck out 10 batters in the same game — not even in the regular season. Ohtani did it in a game for the ages: 3-for-3 with three home runs and then six scoreless innings on the mound with 10 strikeouts. The best player of all time? He was in this game.
2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers, 2025 World Series Game 3
Yes, Ohtani lands the top two spots. Only three players had ever reached base nine times in a regular-season game, and only one of those did it in nine plate appearances. In the 18-inning marathon that was Game 3, Ohtani went 4-for-4 with two home runs and two doubles (making him one of just seven players with four extra-base hits in a postseason game) and five walks. Nine times up, nine times on base. Absolutely incredible.
3. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies, 2010 NLDS Game 1
Halladay spun the second no-hitter in postseason history following Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. Against the Cincinnati Reds, Halladay fanned eight, walked one, threw 104 pitches and threw first-pitch strikes to 25 of the 28 batters he faced. Only a two-out walk in the fifth inning to Jay Bruce on a 3-2 pitch prevented him from matching Larsen.
4. Roger Clemens, New York Yankees, 2000 ALCS Game 4
In the first inning, Clemens threw a 97 mph fastball under the jaw of Mariners shortstop Alex Rodriguez, sending A-Rod spiraling into the dirt. Then Clemens threw the next pitch in a similar location. Game over. Clemens fired a one-hit shutout with 15 strikeouts, the only hit an Al Martin double in the seventh that tipped off the glove of Yankees first baseman Tino Martinez. Clemens’ game score of 98 is the highest of the wild-card era and the 15 strikeouts tied with three others for second most behind Kevin Brown’s 16 for the San Diego Padres in the 1998 NLDS.
5. Edgar Martinez, Seattle Mariners, 1995 ALDS Game 4
Five players share the record for most RBIs in a single game in the wild-card era with seven, but Martinez’s were the most dramatic. The Mariners were down 5-0 in the third inning when he hit a three-run home run. The game was tied in the eighth when he blew the roof off the Kingdome with a grand slam against Yankees closer John Wetteland. The Mariners were alive in the series — and Martinez would deliver an even bigger moment in Game 5.
Greatest games and series
OK, it’s impossible to pick the greatest games — it almost seems a little silly to even try. After all, emotion is part of the equation, and emotions are tied to each fan’s favorite team. However, courtesy of my ESPN colleague Paul Hembekides, there is a more objective way to look at this. After the Dodgers’ win in Game 7, Hembekides noted that Game 7 had nine plays that swung the win probability by at least 15% — the most ever in a World Series Game 7.
That’s a pretty good way to look at what makes a game great — multiple nail-biting, game-changing plays. A 15% threshold is actually pretty high for a “big” play; many games don’t have any plays of that magnitude. Of course, a game can be memorable based on one or two great moments, and a low-scoring game can be full of tension. But we relied on that 15% threshold for this list of the greatest games in each round.
Best wild-card game/series: 2014 ALWC (Royals 9, A’s 8 in 12 innings)
Back when it was still just a one-game showdown, this one was crazy: The A’s led 7-3, but Bob Melvin left in a tiring Jon Lester too long and the Kansas City Royals tied it with three in the eighth and one in the ninth (after the Athletics had left the bases loaded in the top of the ninth). The Royals had already burned through their good relievers by the 10th inning, so it took September call-up Brandon Finnegan to take them to the 12th. He finally allowed a run, but the Royals scored twice to win it.
Best LDS game/series: 1995 ALDS Game 5 (Mariners 6, Yankees 5)/1995 ALDS
We mentioned it at the start of this piece: the Mariners — in their first postseason appearance — against the Yankees, who were back in the playoffs for the first time since 1981. The Yankees won the opener 9-6, overcoming two Ken Griffey Jr. home runs off David Cone, followed by Game 2 in 15 innings. Both teams scored in the 12th (another Griffey home run) before the Yankees finally won on Jim Leyritz’s walk-off home run.
The series shifted to Seattle and the Mariners won Game 3 behind Randy Johnson and then Game 4 on Edgar Martinez’s eighth-inning grand slam. Then came the epic Game 5, with the Mariners literally trying to save baseball in Seattle, as there were threats to move the team. The Mariners trailed 4-2 in the eighth when Griffey homered again off Cone and then tied it on a bases-loaded walk. Johnson came on in the ninth and escaped a two-on, nobody-out jam. The Yankees broke through in the 11th. But in the bottom of the inning, Seattle’s Joey Cora beat out a bunt single (Yankees fans screamed that he was out of the baseline), Griffey singled and then Martinez delivered “The Double,” as it’s called in Seattle, to score Cora for the tying run and Griffey for the winning run. The Mariners got their new ballpark — in Seattle.
Best LCS game/series: 2003 ALCS Game 7 (Yankees 6, Red Sox 5 in 11 innings)/2004 ALCS
The life-and-death battles between the Yankees and Red Sox in 2003 and 2004 generated at least four documentaries, a dozen or so books and enough YouTube highlights to keep you busy for days. The best game was Game 7 in 2003: The Red Sox knocked out Roger Clemens early, blew a 4-0 lead when Pedro Martinez was left in too long and then the Yankees won on Aaron Boone’s walk-off home run in the 11th, leaving both Yankees manager Joe Torre and Red Sox fans in tears. The 2004 ALCS, meanwhile, had to be mythology: There’s no way it really unfolded the way it did — with Boston overcoming a 3-0 series deficit to advance to the World Series.
Best World Series game/series: 2025 Game 7/2025 World Series
There are, I would argue, six games worthy of best World Series game:
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2001 Game 7: The Diamondbacks beat the Yankees and the invincible Mariano Rivera with two runs in the bottom of the ninth (four plays of 15% WPA).
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2011 Game 6: The David Freese game mentioned above, when the Cardinals beat the Rangers 10-9 in 11 innings in a crazy back-and-forth contest (10 plays of 15% WPA).
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2016 Game 7: The Cubs finally break the curse and win the World Series — and it took 10 innings for them to do it (four plays of 15% WPA).
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2017 Game 5: The Astros beat the Dodgers 13-12 in 10 innings after the Dodgers had scored three in the ninth to tie it (10 plays of 15% WPA).
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2025 Game 3: An 18-inning game that was definitely not boring (10 plays of 15% WPA).
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2025 Game 7: This game had everything (nine plays of 15% WPA).
The Cardinals-Rangers game has a strong argument — except it wasn’t Game 7. The Cubs game was certainly thrilling, but it was also sloppy and lacked as many big moments. The answer for best game — and World Series — has to be the one we just watched: It was baseball at its absolute best, with defining moments on defense, huge home runs, heroic performances and role players hitting game-tying home runs two outs away from defeat. It was a World Series that finally turned on how big a lead a runner got off third base.
Controversial decisions
We can’t review this era without a quick list of controversial managerial decisions — moves, in other words, that didn’t work out. Yes, it’s easy to second-guess after the fact. But most of these decisions were second-guessed at the moment. We’ll somehow limit this to just 10.
1. Grady Little leaves in Pedro Martinez (2003 ALCS Game 7)
Martinez was still great in 2003, but everyone knew his numbers declined the more pitches he threw in a game, especially after reaching 100. Everyone, apparently, except his manager, who left him in to throw 123 pitches and blow a 5-2 lead in the eighth inning. The Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 — after firing Little and hiring Terry Francona.
2. Kevin Cash takes out Blake Snell (2020 World Series Game 6)
Snell had allowed just one hit through five innings, but with the Rays nursing a 1-0 lead, Cash took him out after he allowed a one-out single in the sixth. Overused reliever Nick Anderson quickly squandered the lead as the Dodgers clinched the World Series. “We were all kind of excited that Snell was out of the game,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.
3. Buck Showalter doesn’t use Zack Britton (2016 AL wild-card game)
Britton wasn’t just the best reliever in the majors in 2016, he also had one of the greatest relief seasons ever with 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA. The Baltimore Orioles would lose the wild-card game to the Blue Jays in 11 innings — with Britton somehow never even getting into the game.
4. Showalter leaves David Cone in to throw 147 pitches (1995 ALDS Game 5)
Poor Buck. The Yankees led 4-2 in the eighth when Griffey homered. With two outs, the Mariners loaded the bases with two walks and a single. Still, Showalter left Cone in. “He will go down with his best,” says announcer Brent Musburger. On his 147th pitch, Cone walked Doug Strange on a 3-2 slider that wasn’t close. The Mariners won in 11 innings — and Joe Torre replaced Showalter as Yankees manager for the following season.
5. Aaron Boone brings in Nestor Cortes (2024 World Series Game 1)
Cortes hadn’t pitched in more than a month when Boone brought in the lefty in the highest of high-leverage situations: Game 1 of the World Series, bottom of the 10th, two runners on, one out, Yankees leading 3-2, Shohei Ohtani at the plate. Cortes got Ohtani on a foul popout, but the runners advanced when left fielder Alex Verdugo tumbled into the stands making the catch. Boone issued an intentional walk to Mookie Betts, loading the bases for Freddie Freeman, who slammed a first-pitch fastball for one of the most dramatic home runs in World Series history.
6. Bob Brenly brings Byung-Hyun Kim back in (2001 World Series Game 5)
Brenly is the only manager here who went on to win the World Series in the year in question, but it didn’t look like that would be the case after the Diamondbacks lost Game 5 to go down in the series. In Game 4, Kim allowed the game-tying two-run home run in the ninth and then the game-losing home run to Derek Jeter in the 10th — while throwing 61 pitches. But he was back out there in Game 5 for some reason and served up another game-tying two-run homer in the ninth to Scott Brosius. The image of Kim crouching on the mound lives on, one of the ultimate pictures of World Series devastation.
7. Terry Collins leaves in Matt Harvey (2015 World Series Game 5)
The Mets were leading 2-0 heading into the ninth, trying to stay alive in the World Series against the Royals. Harvey had a four-hit shutout going and had thrown 101 pitches. Collins told Harvey his night was done, but Harvey lobbied to remain in the game. Collins left him in. The Royals scored twice and then won in 12 innings.
8. Joe Torre moves Alex Rodriguez down to eighth in the lineup (2006 ALDS Game 4)
After getting shut out in Game 3 of the ALDS, Torre moved his cleanup hitter down in the lineup — all the way to eighth, which the New York press made a big deal of. A-Rod was 1-for-11 in the series and 4-for-his-last-38 with no RBIs in the postseason going back to Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS. He went 0-for-3 in Game 4 and the Yankees were eliminated. A-Rod would finally break out of his postseason funk in 2009, when he hit .365 with six home runs to lead the Yankees to the World Series title.
9. John Schneider’s pinch-running decisions (2025 World Series)
Let’s just say all these moves failed to work for Toronto in spectacular fashion.
10. A.J. Hinch takes out Zack Greinke — and doesn’t use Gerrit Cole (2019 World Series Game 7)
The Astros were leading 2-0 when Greinke served up a home run to Anthony Rendon in the seventh inning, just the second hit he had allowed to the Nationals. Pitching carefully to Juan Soto, Greinke walked him, but he was still at just 80 pitches. Hinch brought in Will Harris to face Howie Kendrick, who hit a two-run, go-ahead home run. The Nationals tacked on three more runs over the final two innings. Cole started warming up on his own, but Hinch would go on to say he was going to use Cole only to start an inning and with a lead.
Five absolutely bonkers moments
If you’re not familiar with these, go check the hard-to-believe highlights on YouTube.
1. Roger Clemens throws the broken bat shard at Mike Piazza in the 2000 World Series.
2. Pedro Martinez throws 72-year-old Yankees coach Don Zimmer to the ground during the Red Sox-Yankees brawl in the 2003 ALCS.
3. Midges attack Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain in the 2007 ALDS as he blows a 1-0 lead with a walk and two wild pitches.
4. The Bartman Game: The Cubs implode in the eighth inning of Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS, allowing eight runs to blow a 3-0 lead after Cubs fan Steve Bartman interferes with Moises Alou’s attempt to catch a foul ball.
5. A.J. Pierzynski reaches first base after striking out in Game 2 of the 2005 ALCS. After the Angels won Game 1, the White Sox were tied 1-1 in the ninth inning of Game 2. Chicago’s Pierzynski struck out on a low pitch that Angels catcher Josh Paul appeared to catch cleanly and ran to first base as Paul tossed the ball back to the mound and headed to the dugout. In those pre-replay days, the umpires said Paul trapped the ball and Pierzynski was safe. Pinch runner Pablo Ozuna stole second and scored on a game-winning double, and the White Sox went on to win the World Series.
Finally: The unsung heroes
The beauty of baseball: Anyone might be the hero. Here are five non-stars who stepped up when their teams needed them the most in October:
1. Jeremy Affeldt, 2010/2012/2014 San Francisco Giants
The secret ingredient to the Giants’ three titles in five years: the bullpen, which had a 2.42 ERA over three postseasons. And nobody was better than Affeldt, who allowed just two runs in 26 innings, including 2⅓ scoreless innings in Game 7 in 2014 ahead of Madison Bumgarner’s five scoreless innings.
2. Will Klein, 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers
This one is fresh in our memories, but Klein’s 72-pitch, four-inning relief outing in Game 3 will go down as one of the most amazing relief appearances in World Series history. It’s not just that Klein was the last pitcher on the staff — an obscure reliever added to the roster due to extenuating circumstances — but the number of pitches he threw. Other relievers have thrown more pitches in a game, but all except one were starters working in long relief or mop-up duty in blowouts. (The only other pure reliever to throw more pitches was Jeff Nelson of the Mariners, who threw 79 in Game 4 of that 1995 ALDS.)
3. Curtis Leskanic, 2004 Boston Red Sox
When the Red Sox stayed alive in Game 4 against the Yankees, everyone remembers Dave Roberts’ steal and David Ortiz’s home run, but only the most diehard of Red Sox fans remember Leskanic got the win. He came on with the bases loaded in the 11th and induced Bernie Williams to fly to center. He then pitched a scoreless 12th and got the win. It was the final game he pitched in the majors.
4. Tony Womack, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks
Everyone remembers the final highlight, but Luis Gonzalez’s broken-bat blooper doesn’t happen if Womack doesn’t first hit a broken-bat game-tying double (and Mark Grace got the rally going with a leadoff single).
5. Mike Montgomery, 2016 Chicago Cubs
With the Cubs looking to end their 108-year World Series curse, manager Joe Maddon went into Game 7 looking to use three pitchers: Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Aroldis Chapman. But when the game went into extra innings, he needed a fourth pitcher. Carl Edwards Jr. got two outs in the 10th but then allowed a run, so Maddon called upon a fifth pitcher with the tying run on base.
Twenty Hall of Famers have thrown the final pitch of a World Series. Sometimes the final pitch comes from a less famous pitcher: Josh Sborz for the Rangers in 2023 or Jason Motte for the Cardinals in 2011. And the biggest out in Cubs history went to Montgomery, who faced one batter and induced Michael Martinez to ground out to Kris Bryant at third base. It was Montgomery’s first career save in the majors.
One of the winners in the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday was the Big 12. BYU (No. 7) and Texas Tech (No. 8) showed up in the top 10, and Utah sits within striking distance at No. 13.
It adds up to make Saturday’s matchup between the Cougars and Red Raiders — perhaps a Big 12 title game preview — the most consequential in college football. A loss for either team wouldn’t necessarily remove it from the playoff conversation but would strike a significant blow and leave little room for error down the stretch.
The two other ranked matchups this week are No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri and No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa. Look out for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off a convincing win against Minnesota and appear to have turned a corner offensively. Meanwhile, the Ducks have had a couple of weeks to prepare after they failed to impress in a 21-7 win against Wisconsin on Oct. 25. — Kyle Bonagura
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Texas A&M | Five freshmen to know
BYU-Texas Tech | Quotes of the week
How the Texas A&M got better in 2025
There haven’t been any wholesale schematic changes, it’s just that the Aggies finally added a couple of contributors at wide receiver to give offensive coordinator Collin Klein more juice. Other than that, they’ve just grown up. A&M’s offensive line was a giant weakness at the end of the Jimbo Fisher era, but offensive line coach Adam Cushing has worked wonders, fashioning a group in the running for the Joe Moore Award, which goes to the most outstanding OL unit. Quarterback Marcel Reed is in his first full season as the starter, so he has added experience, and the solid protection means he can get through his reads. But the additions of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion at receiver, one of only three tandems in the SEC who each have more than 500 receiving yards, have given the Aggies breathing room. The vertical threats open up the running game (Craver’s 455 receiving yards after the catch is the second most in the FBS), and Klein’s offense also stretches teams horizontally.
Last season, there just weren’t any A&M receivers getting separation. This season, Reed is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt beyond the line of scrimmage, the second-most air yards per throw in the SEC behind Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar. That kind of room opens up running lanes. The Aggies average 2.35 yards per rush before contact, third best in the SEC, and that also benefits Reed. He has had both passing and rushing touchdowns in four straight games, the longest streak by an Aggie since Johnny Manziel had five in 2012 and something only five SEC players have done in the past 15 years. — Dave Wilson
Five freshmen who’ve made a name for themselves
Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU: Bachmeier left Stanford, hit the transfer portal and replaced a returning starter before playing a single snap this fall. On Saturday, he leads the unbeaten Cougars into a pivotal Big 12 showdown at No. 8 Texas Tech with BYU in the thick of the playoff hunt. Bachmeier has delivered on the dual-threat promise he flashed out of high school, accounting for 2,101 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns in eight starts. Among true freshman quarterbacks, he ranks first nationally in completion percentage (58.7%), passer rating (95.2) and yards per attempt (7.9). And at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Bachmeier is also getting it done on the ground, entering Week 10 tied for seventh in rushing scores (9) among FBS passers. The Cougars’ first-year quarterback appears to be the full package, and Bachmeier is a big reason No. 7 BYU hits the back end of the regular season firmly contending for a playoff spot.
Mason Heintschel, QB, Pitt: A three-star prospect in the 2025 class, Heintschel has been a revelation for the 24th-ranked Panthers, who appeared in the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday for only the second time since December 2021. Pitt (7-2) is 5-0 since Heintschel took over for season-opening starter Eli Holstein at Boston College on Oct. 4. Over those five games, Heintschel has thrown for 1,547 yards with 12 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. One of only five true freshman quarterbacks with 200-plus passing attempts in the FBS, Heintschel sits tied with Maryland’s Malik Washington for the most TDs within that group and trails only Bachmeier in completion percentage (64.1%) and passer rating (92.0). Turnovers — nine total in five games — have been a problem for Heintschel, and his ball security and relative inexperience will be tested in matchups with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami to close the regular season.
Caleb Hawkins, RB, North Texas: For all the (warranted) conversation about Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker, Hawkins is writing an unlikely success story of his own in the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense this fall. Fresh off a 33-carry, 197-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Navy in Week 10, the three-star newcomer from Shawnee, Oklahoma, leads all freshman running backs across the country in attempts (121), rushing yards (744) and touchdowns (11). Among FBS rushers with at least 50 carries this fall, Hawkins ranks tied for fifth in rushing scores and 11th in yards per attempt (6.1). Inevitably, Hawkins’ breakout debut season is already earning him the attention of Power 4 programs as a potential offseason transfer portal target. But for now, he’s one of the key parts of a high-scoring offense that has North Texas contending for an American Conference title, and in turn, a potential place in the playoff field.
Graceson Littleton, CB, Texas: A late addition to the Longhorns’ top-ranked 2025 recruiting class, the 6-foot, 180-pound defensive back has become a fixture in a new-look Texas secondary powering the nation’s 25th-ranked pass defense. Primarily operating at slot corner, Littleton has tallied 33 total tackles and a pair of pass breakups while playing more snaps (409) than all but four other Longhorns defenders this fall, and his two interceptions — including a fourth-quarter pick against Oklahoma on Oct. 11 — leave him tied for the national lead among freshmen defensive backs across the FBS. Through nine games, Littleton has blossomed into an instant contributor with the makings of a future star in the Texas secondary, where he and the No. 11 Longhorns are staring down a pair of daunting late-season matchups with No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami: The pass catcher they call “Baby Jesus” in Coral Gables isn’t just putting together the best freshman receiving season across the FBS. Toney, who reclassified from the 2026 cycle to enter college early, is also already one of the nation’s productive wide receivers. No first-year pass catcher has recorded more targets (66), receptions (52) and receiving yards (632) than Toney in 2025. And among all receivers nationally, the 5-11 newcomer from Liberty City, Florida, ranks seventh in yards after catch (390) and 16th in first-down receptions (31). Toney, who has yet to drop a pass in his college career, has immediately become one of the country’s most electrifying playmakers this fall, and he projects to be a central contributor to whatever the 18th-ranked Hurricanes do from here — in 2025 and beyond. — Eli Lederman
What do BYU, Texas Tech need to capitalize on to win?
BYU: Keep it close. This is a team that has proved it has the poise to pull out close games, and in a game like this, that matters. Texas Tech has been winning more convincingly and it was perhaps its lack of experience in tight contests that backfired against Arizona State a few weeks ago.
For true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, Texas Tech’s impressive front seven will force him to make faster decisions. It will be his most challenging test of the season and he needs to play close to error-free for BYU to find a rhythm on offense.
Despite the undefeated record, BYU hasn’t been as good defensively as it was a year ago. This would be a perfect game to reach its capabilities. — Bonagura
Texas Tech: In a must-win game for the Red Raiders’ Big 12 title hopes, they need to keep quarterback Behren Morton protected and healthy. Will Hammond is out for the season and can’t step in to save the day if Morton goes down again. Finishing drives is a major challenge in this one. No FBS team has kicked more field goals in the red zone than Texas Tech (15-for-15 this season), and Utah coming up short on three fourth-down conversions in field goal range helped swing the Holy War game.
On defense, Texas Tech’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense needs to contain Big 12 leading rusher LJ Martin and get Bachmeier into third-and-long. The freshman has been disciplined in those situations with an 88.4 QBR and no turnovers and can scramble out of trouble, but he hasn’t yet faced David Bailey and Romello Height. — Max Olson
Quotes of the week
“I think we are desperate,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said of his unbeaten Aggies. “I tell them all the time: You know, we have earned everything that we’ve got, right? We’ve got a record. We’ve got a ranking. We’ve got opportunities that we have worked really, really hard to earn. And, every single Saturday, someone is coming in and trying to take all of that from us, and that’s the urgency that we have.”
“They’re big humans that take up a lot of space,” Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said of BYU’s talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage. “We’re going to have to do a great job up front on our double-teams. You know, we’re going to have to win our one-on-ones. I think that’s huge.”
Miami’s Mario Cristobal on the message to his team after the Hurricanes’ Week 10 loss to SMU: “When things go wrong, that’s when all the rats start to come out and try to peck at you and all that other stuff. You got to go tell them to go. You know what? Go to work, and do it emphatically and do it with some guts. Go fix the things that we have to fix so we can go get better and win.”
Oregon’s Dan Lanning ahead of the No. 9 Ducks’ Week 11 trip to No. 20 Iowa: “I’m shocked this team isn’t ranked [in the AP poll]. If you look at the way they’ve been playing, especially recently, and the job that they’ve done. They jumped out really fast against the Minnesota team that plays good football, had a big win this past weekend. So I think this team probably is not getting near enough credit that they deserve for the kind of team that they are.”
“The reality is college football needs to be decided on the field,” Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz said in a critique of the College Football Playoff committee’s initial rankings. “There needs to be play-in games. There’s not another sport in the country that is decided — besides NCAA basketball, NCAA baseball and NCAA football — by committees. Like, decide it on the field. Just like pro sports do.”
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney on accountability in officiating this week: “Refs are people, too. It ain’t just coaches and players. And if they’re a part of the game, then by god, they ought to be a part of the game and they ought to be a part of the accountability. They ought to be a part of the consequences, not just behind some shadowy curtain. Like no, they ought to have to answer for it.”
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Bill Connelly
The stakes are officially set. We know what the College Football Playoff committee thinks of all the requisite contenders — we know that Oregon could be in trouble with another loss, that Notre Dame is in excellent shape and that the ACC probably is getting only one team in (which is all it deserves). Now it’s time to see how this all plays out.
Week 11 should be a delight. We get a battle of top-10s in Lubbock and a bigger-than-expected upset attempt in Iowa City. The SEC’s top two teams, though safe in the playoff race, face unique tests. The ACC and American Conference races might gain some clarity, and they might grow even sloppier.
What shifts will we see and where? Here’s everything you need to follow in a rather off-the-beaten-path Week 11.
The biggest game in Lubbock in 17 years
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon, ABC)
For just the fifth time in history, a top-10 Texas Tech team will host a top-10 opponent on Saturday. The Red Raiders lost two such games back in the 1970s, but they won a pair in 2008. You probably remember at least one of them.
That’s the last time “College GameDay” was in town. It’ll be there Saturday. Hell yeah.
In this moment, with the Big Ten and SEC attempting to further distance themselves from the rest of the sport in terms of both money and power, BYU and Texas Tech in particular are trying to disrupt the party a bit. BYU was testing the boundaries of NIL possibilities right after NIL became a thing and is milking a large and monied fan base to solid effect in both football and basketball. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the most famous NIL billionaire in the game running television commercials and openly questioning the judgment of the sport’s most powerful individuals.
Oh yeah, and both teams are awesome this season. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, BYU is playing the most mature ball in the Big 12. The Cougars don’t always start games well, but they finish them strong, especially on the road — they ended on a 31-3 run against Iowa State and 24-7 against Colorado, and they scored late and then won in overtime at Arizona. They know that 60 minutes is a long time, they’re brilliant in the turnover, third-down and red zone departments on defense, and the offense gets both efficiency from the running game and big plays from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. And Bear Bachmeier, the aforementioned freshman QB, is up to 18th in Total QBR, ahead of former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff (now at Tulane), among others. Since a Week 2 semi-dud against Stanford, he ranks 11th.
I wouldn’t advise leaving things ’til late against Texas Tech, however, as the Red Raiders might have put the game away by then. Their eight wins have come by an average of 34 points, and their only loss, a last-second defeat at Arizona State, came without quarterback Behren Morton, who is listed as probable for Saturday.
This is a fascinating test for Bachmeier. Inexperience can strike when it’s least desirable, and if it’s going to hit Bachmeier, it will probably be in Lubbock, facing a unique and hostile crowd and a unique and hostile defense. The Red Raiders have forced 20 turnovers (second nationally) and three-and-outs on 44% of possessions (fifth). David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for 17.5 sacks, and Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. They rank in the top 20 in sack rate while rarely blitzing.
Bachmeier’s supporting cast is strong, with an experienced line, Roberts and Kingston out wide and running back LJ Martin next to him in the backfield. Some freshmen might get on the field because of certain elite traits, but they’re usually forced to learn how to overcome obvious weaknesses. For Bachmeier, his elite trait is his lack of obvious weaknesses.
Bachmeier’s accuracy is perhaps merely average — as represented by CPOE (completion rate over expected) in the chart above — but his well-roundedness is startling for a first-year guy. Against an elite Utah defense, he was able to grind out success, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback but throwing no picks and rushing nine times for 71 yards and a rugged, game-clinching 22-yard touchdown on third-and-11. But here comes an even bigger test. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will have to cope with a balanced and explosive offense featuring two high-end running backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) and a diverse receiving corps with five players between 21 and 41 receptions.
The winner of this one will head into the season’s homestretch with quite a bit of margin for error in the CFP hunt; the loser, however, will be right on the border. At 16th in SP+, BYU has what appears to be its best team since the glorious 2020 team that went 11-1 and ranked fourth. But this might be Tech’s best team ever. Four Red Raiders teams have finished in the SP+ top 10 — 1954, 2005, 2008 and 2009 (here’s your regular reminder that Mike Leach was a fantastic head coach) — but not one finished higher than eighth. Tech is currently fourth, and that’s with the ASU game dragging it down. The upside is immense, and Saturday, Lubbock will be the center of the college football universe.
Current line: Tech -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 2.7
A sloppy track in Iowa City
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That’s some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it’s pretty Oregon, too, isn’t it?
Tuesday’s CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. They’re awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they’ve played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice — Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don’t deserve to rank as high even though they’re clearly very good. It’s not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it’s not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history.
Regardless, Oregon is where it is, and the Ducks have a tricky homestretch, with ranked Iowa, USC and Washington teams to come. Iowa has been underrated all season — the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They’re 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn’t between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate).
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
They’re as reliant as ever on the run, but how they run is wonderfully unpredictable.
Here’s how to interpret that chart: Bigger dots mean higher frequency, and lighter dots mean higher efficiency. The dots are pretty much the same size, and the efficiency levels are solid across the board.
Now, once the Hawkeyes are behind schedule, they’re toast. But they’re averaging 2.56 points per drive; their best average in the past 20 years was 2.36 in 2008. That’s been more than enough for the typically awesome Iowa defense to take control. Ends Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett are spicy pass rushers, and the secondary gets the requisite ball-hawking from corners TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee and slot corner Zach Lutmer.
Of course, Oregon hasn’t shown us many weaknesses beyond an inability to beat a thus-far unbeatable Indiana team. Quarterback Dante Moore and the offense struggled against Indiana’s elite defense but have otherwise averaged 44.3 points and 7.8 yards per play. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and the Oregon defense struggled against Indiana’s elite offense but have otherwise allowed just 11.1 points and 3.9 yards per play.
We haven’t gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn’t beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less.
Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.
Will a top SEC team go down?
The SEC’s race isn’t as messy as the ACC’s or American’s, but we still have five teams pretty heavily involved: Per SP+, Alabama has a 33.2% title chance, followed by Texas A&M (30.1%), Georgia (16.1%), Ole Miss (11.3%) and Texas (7.8%).
The two front-runners are in excellent shape playoff-wise, but they have work to do this weekend. A&M visits Missouri — a team that had its own realistic CFP ambitions before losing quarterback Beau Pribula to injury two weeks ago — while Bama is a single-digit favorite against suddenly mysterious LSU.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Coaches and old-school commentators love telling you how important it is for an offense to stay on schedule. But unlike old-school views on things like fourth-down attempts or the dangers of passing, this is correct. Efficiency is vital in college football; it’s one of the reasons success rate is one of the key pieces of my SP+ ratings.
Staying on schedule might be just about all that matters in Columbia on Saturday. If we break things into standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) and passing downs (everything else), we see why pretty quickly.
When A&M has the ball
Standard downs success rate: A&M offense first (58.2%), Mizzou defense fifth (37.7%)
Passing downs success rate: A&M offense 88th (27.5%); Mizzou defense sixth (21.5%)
A&M is elite on standard downs. The Aggies’ running game is quite efficient, and quarterback Marcel Reed averages 9.7 yards per dropback on standard downs, completing 69% of his passes at 14.4 yards per completion and scrambling for nearly 10 yards a pop too.
Reed averages only 6.4 yards per dropback on passing downs, however, while his interception rate nearly doubles and his sack rate triples. Mizzou’s defense is sixth nationally in success rate allowed, and the Tigers generate pressure on 44% of dropbacks. Reed is elusive, but if Mizzou leverages the Aggies behind schedule, they’ll make a lot of stops.
That’s good, because they’ll be giving a true freshman quarterback (Matt Zollers) his first career start against an aggressive A&M defense.
When Mizzou has the ball
Standard downs success rate: Mizzou offense 28th (51.9%), A&M defense 28th (43.2%)
Passing downs success rate: Mizzou offense 15th (37.7%), A&M defense ninth (22.1%)
A&M’s defense is vicious on passing downs. Led primarily by Missouri native Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes, the Aggies rank second in sack rate. Nothing can rattle a freshman QB faster than constant pressure, so Mizzou has to hope that the combination of backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the running game and a quick passing game — albeit one that might be without tight end Brett Norfleet (listed as questionable) — can keep Zollers in favorable situations. He was a top-100 prospect, and he threw the ball pretty well filling in against Vanderbilt, but his passing has been mostly short and controlled.
That’s a tight radius of completions. At one point or another, Zollers will be asked to make tough throws to the sideline; if he can’t, A&M will crowd the box and make life awfully difficult.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 1.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4
LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2022, future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels outdueled former Heisman winner Bryce Young, and LSU knocked off No. 6 Alabama in overtime. With that result, the Tigers won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season in charge and reignited one of the defining rivalries of the 2010s.
Three years later, Kelly has been fired. He lost his last two Bama games by a combined 43 points, and he lost six of his last 14 games overall. His teams were never bad or even mediocre — unlike another Nick Saban-beating head coach who was recently fired (Auburn’s Hugh Freeze) — but he set the highest possible bar for himself and didn’t clear it. Interim coach Frank Wilson and the Tigers now are left looking to spoil a season or two down the stretch.
They’re still talented enough to do it. The LSU defense, fatigued from carrying a disappointing offense and suffering in the absence of star linebacker Whit Weeks, collapsed in Kelly’s final two games. But it’s still talented, and Weeks has been upgraded to questionable. The offense, now coordinated by former Florida State OC Alex Atkins, could benefit from the element of surprise, not to mention a week of rest for consistently battered quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers land some early haymakers, this could get weird.
Of course, at this point Bama is used to facing stiff challenges. They’ve defeated four ranked opponents, and they’re 3-0 in one-score finishes. Quarterback Ty Simpson remains a major Heisman contender, injured receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable, and the Tide probably will be ready for a fight.
Current line: Bama -9.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.9
ACC contenders try to avoid potholes
After last week’s ACC chaos, SP+ currently gives six teams a fighting chance at the conference crown: Louisville (28.0%), Virginia (25.6%), Georgia Tech (16.7%), Duke (11.3%), Pitt (8.4%) and SMU (8.0%). Even Miami is still at 2.0%.
This week doesn’t give us any head-to-head matchups between these contenders, but while Duke is off gallivanting with UConn in nonconference play, Pitt is on bye and Miami and Louisville are significant favorites, two contenders face semi-interesting tests.
Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Wake Forest had won three straight games before last week, but the Demon Deacons visited Florida State, absorbed all of the Seminoles’ bad mojo and laid a spectacular egg in a 42-7 loss. Every play seemed to feature miscommunication or a massive individual error.
Any remaining game in which that version of Wake shows up is an automatic loss, but the pre-FSU version could threaten a Virginia team that has flirted with disaster for weeks. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and the vice-favorite in the ACC, but they’ve won their past five games by an average of 4.8 points, three in overtime. They’re just 43rd in SP+.
Wake’s all-or-nothing offense has been mostly nothing of late, scoring 20 combined points in two games, but UVA’s secondary is vulnerable to “alls,” and receiver Chris Barnes is a solid downfield threat. You’re watching this for the other matchup, though. UVA’s offense and Wake’s defense are fun and explosive. The Hoos’ offensive line could struggle with an active Wake front — the Deacs are seventh in stuff rate and third in pressure rate — but backs J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are excellent after contact, and quarterback Chandler Morris is one of the best in the nation at escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. UVA is only 53rd in success rate but bumps up to 16th on third downs. Morris has been a godsend, and he and the Hoos tend to come through late.
Current line: UVA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 9.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 8.6
SMU at Boston College (noon, ACCN)
SMU just worked its way back into the ACC race with its upset of Miami; surely the Mustangs wouldn’t turn around and blow it against 1-8 Boston College, right? Probably not. But it’s worth noting that BC has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in back-to-back games, giving both Louisville and Notre Dame more resistance than expected. This is a long trip and an early kick, and if SMU doesn’t bring a certain level of energy, things could get awkward.
SMU’s offense has struggled at times, but the defense has surged despite a growing injury list. BC’s Bill O’Brien has lost faith in quarterback Dylan Lonergan, and though backup Grayson James usually offers more with his legs, he’s even less efficient passing, and he has been battling a hip pointer.
This is a just-in-case watch: BC could make it interesting, but it’s not incredibly likely.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.0
The Group of 5 game of the week
Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN)
While one-loss James Madison and San Diego State lurk, the American Conference champ will be very well positioned to snag the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot. There are currently six American teams with one conference loss; Memphis is one of them, as are each of the Tigers’ last three opponents — Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. This is a tricky homestretch, especially with quarterback Brendon Lewis‘ status uncertain after he suffered another lower-body injury against Rice. Backup AJ Hill was good late against UAB after Lewis exited, but this isn’t a great time to deal with QB uncertainty. Without accounting for Lewis, SP+ still gives the Tigers only a 32% chance of winning these next three games.
But Tulane’s recent form has to give the Tigers hope. After close calls a couple of times, the Green Wave finally found it with last week’s blowout loss at UTSA. After being as high as 38th in SP+, they’ve fallen to 66th, and while Jake Retzlaff and the passing game remain strong, the run game is inconsistent and the defense was lit up for 48 points and 7.6 yards per play in San Antonio.
Retzlaff should be able to find some success, but Tulane’s poor defense will have to make stops at some point, and Memphis’ skill corps is deep and diverse, with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. in the backfield and big-play receivers Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins out wide.
Current line: Memphis -3.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 13.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.2
Week 11 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to NC State’s win over Georgia Tech, we jumped back up to .500 (5-5) last week.
In the immortal words of Lou Brown in “Major League,” if we win today, it’s called two in a row. If we win again tomorrow, it’s called a winning streak. SP+ says there’s only a 42% chance that Virginia (73% win probability against Wake Forest), James Madison (80% against Marshall), SMU (84% against Boston College) and USC (86% against Northwestern) all win. Let’s take down a playoff (or at least ACC title) contender.
Week 11 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northwestern at No. 19 USC (9 p.m., Fox). USC’s playoff hopes might have remained alive because of an injury; the Trojans were trailing Nebraska 14-6 when Dylan Raiola went down and they rallied to a 21-17 win. Now they host a Northwestern team that lost to Raiola’s Huskers by seven the week before. Northwestern games feature no big plays for either team, and the Wildcats are built to muck this one up for a bit.
Current line: USC -14.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 17.5 | FPI projection: USC by 17.5
Early Saturday
No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN). Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It’s a thing they like to do.
Current line: UGA -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: UGA by 7.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 8.7
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (noon, Fox). Penn State became only the second team to hit 14 points against Ohio State last week, but the Nittany Lions’ defense succumbed to the Buckeyes’ big plays. Now comes another top-two opponent; outside of two SP+ top-20 opponents, Indiana has beaten mortals by an average of 53-9, and PSU looks awfully mortal. Will it matter that IU’s injury list is growing?
Current line: Indiana -14.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 10.9
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, BTN). Purdue has massively improved this season, but thanks to three recent one-score losses, the Boilermakers have lost seven in a row and are going to be significant underdogs in each of their last three games. Ohio State actually had to get a little aggressive against Penn State but looked great doing so. That probably says bad things about this matchup.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 (up from -28.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.1
James Madison at Marshall (noon, ESPN2). JMU has shifted into fifth gear of late, scoring 115 points and gaining 1,135 yards in its past two games to charge up the CFP contenders list. But the Dukes’ defense has grown a bit leaky, and Marshall has averaged 41 points over its past six games. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and the Herd are capable of throwing JMU’s playoff hopes for a loop.
Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 13.4 | FPI projection: JMU by 8.6
Southern Miss at Arkansas State (noon, ESPNU). Remember last year, when Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title with Marshall, then took the Southern Miss job and took a quarter of his roster with him? Well, his Golden Thundering Herd Eagles have won four games in a row to move to 6-2. ASU has also won four in a row, and the winner of this one will be a huge favorite to win the Sun Belt West.
Current line: USM -4.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 6.5 | FPI projection: USM by 2.8
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt (4 p.m., SECN). LSU isn’t the only SEC team hoping for an interim boost, as DJ Durkin takes over at Auburn. The Tigers still defend beautifully — 11th in defensive SP+ — but Vandy is averaging 23.3 points against top-15 defenses. Can Auburn score that much against any defense with a pulse at this point?
Current line: Vandy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 8.7 | FPI projection: Vandy by 5.7
Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has lost four straight, but three were by one score and the other was tied in the fourth quarter. TCU has won two straight to get to 6-2, but both were also by one score. The records don’t tell the whole tale here, but TCU’s run defense will probably render ISU inefficient, and quarterback Josh Hoover should find success against a tattered Cyclones secondary.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 4.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.3
Kansas at Arizona (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams rebounded from 1-3 stretches with comfortable wins last week, and both are a win from bowl eligibility after missing out last season. This one should be decided when KU’s Jalon Daniels drops back to pass: He remains efficient, but Arizona ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Fun matchup there.
Current line: Arizona -5.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.5
No. 23 Washington at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin plays its sixth game against an SP+ top-25 team, with two more to come. Washington puts up huge points against any less-than-elite defense, and Wisconsin isn’t elite at a damn thing. The Huskies are 6-2 and have a good chance to be 9-2 with win-and-you’re-in playoff hopes when Oregon visits for Rivalry Week.
Current line: Huskies -10.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 18.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 6.2
Stanford at North Carolina (4:30 p.m., The CW). UNC is overachieving against SP+ projections by two touchdowns per game over the past three. The key to the Heels’ turnaround? A defense that has turned good against the run and fantastic against the pass. Pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude is smoking hot and will probably get to know Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson awfully well.
Current line: UNC -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 9.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.0
Duke at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UConn has played ACC teams as if it were auditioning for a spot in the league, walloping BC and going to overtime with pre-collapse Syracuse. The Huskies make a ton of big plays, and Duke gives up just as many, so for the Blue Devils to avoid a nonconference upset they’ll have to take full advantage of a shaky UConn run front and a soft pass defense.
Current line: Duke -9.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 6.1
Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Miami has underachieved its offensive projections by 6.2 points per game over its past five; a total lack of big plays has removed the possibility of easy points, and Carson Beck‘s interception-prone tendencies (six in his past three games) have become a problem. Will any of this matter Saturday? Nope. Syracuse’s offense is 12 steps beyond terrible at this point.
Current line: Miami -28.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.8
Saturday evening
Florida State at Clemson (7 p.m., ACCN). Under Mike Norvell, FSU has struggled to course-correct when the vibes go south, but beating a solid Wake team by 35 might have offered quite the correction. Will there be a correction for Clemson this season? The odds of the 3-5 Tigers reaching even 6-6 this season are down to 39%, per SP+, and that number would plummet with a fifth home loss. Fifth!
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 0.8
California at No. 15 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2). Cal has done a nice job of taking advantage of a weak schedule, but the Golden Bears have lost to three SP+ top-50 opponents by an average of 37-14, and at 23rd in SP+, Louisville is by far the best team they’ve faced. That probably doesn’t bode well, though with star back Isaac Brown injured, the Cardinals might not take full advantage of Cal’s dreadful run defense.
Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 20.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 18.6
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has won its past six games by an average score of 39-15. The Irish meet an equally torrid Pitt next week, but first they must handle an all-or-nothing Navy team that moves the ball as well as ever but ranks 103rd in points allowed per drive. You can run into trouble against the Midshipmen, but it’s hard to shake the memory of last year’s 51-14 blowout.
Current line: Irish -25.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 17.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.2
Late Saturday
Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., Fox). I’ve almost never seen a disagreement between spread and SP+ projection as big as the one below. Dylan Raiola’s season-ending injury is the reason for the variance, but exactly how many points is a starting quarterback worth? Freshman backup TJ Lateef was a deer in headlights filling in against USC, but if he’s merely composed, Nebraska’s defense is good enough to make this a dogfight.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 4.7
San Diego State at Hawai’i (11 p.m., MW App). SDSU keeps creeping along as a playoff sleeper, having won six straight games by an average of 29-7. The Aztecs are second nationally in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, but when Micah Alejado is dealing, Hawaii is a handful. When Alejado throws for 300-plus, the Rainbow Warriors score 30-plus.
Current line: SDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.9 | FPI projection: SDSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 15 North Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). We have a pair of big in-state rivalry games in the Missouri Valley this week. Reeling South Dakota State desperately needs a win at No. 25 South Dakota, but one state up, North Dakota is looking for just its second Nickel Trophy win over NDSU in 20 years. (Granted, the rivals have played only six times in that span.) An upset would supercharge the Fighting Hawks’ playoff résumé, but we’ll see if any FCS team is capable of beating an absurdly dominant North Dakota State team that has let only one opponent stay within 17 points.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.5
Division III: No. 10 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., WIAC Network). First, the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference had a six-way tie at 2-1. Then four 3-1 teams paired off last week. And now, last week’s winners, both 4-1, pair off again. It has been a logistically perfect WIAC race, and now we get an upstart — UWRF, which hasn’t won an outright conference title in 40 years and destroyed longtime heavyweight Wisconsin-Whitewater last week — hosting the 2023 WIAC champ with two games to play.
SP+ projection: UWRF by 6.0
FCS: No. 14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 18 Lamar (4 p.m., ESPN+). Consider me surprised that Southeastern Louisiana is only 14th in the FCS polls. Dual quarterbacks Carson Camp (better passer) and Kyle Lowe (better runner) and the Lions have lost only to Louisiana Tech and LSU and have beaten seven FCS opponents by an average of 47-12. Lamar is 7-2 itself and does something rare in the Southland: defend. But SLU is the favorite for a reason.
SP+ projection: SLU by 9.0
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