Olney: Ohtani’s secretive free agency is a shame for the sport
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Buster Olney, ESPN Senior Writer
Somebody should ask Shohei Ohtani a really simple question about his free agency:
What is the point of all of this secrecy?
Of course, that would imply that anyone had heard from Ohtani in the past four months. Maybe his silence is Ohtani’s choice, or maybe somebody is giving him some really awful advice. But the way this historic free agency has played out is unnecessarily joyless — and completely antithetical to the way Ohtani competes, the way he loves his craft.
His short journey through free agency could have been a celebration of baseball. Ohtani has more leverage than any player ever. Everybody wants him, and everybody wants to give him a lot of money. This really should all be fun, generating excitement among baseball fans dreaming of Ohtani in the lineup of their favorite team.
Instead, his decision is being handled like delicate negotiations over a secret spy swap. There is silence and threats, with club executives rolling their eyes as they describe the warnings they have been given from Ohtani’s camp about publicly discussing their efforts to sign the most dynamic and popular talent on earth. “Sorry, can’t talk about the guy everybody is talking about,” said one general manager, laughing.
At the winter meetings Tuesday, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confirmed that the team had recently met with Ohtani at Dodger Stadium. (NEWS FLASH: The Biggest Spending Team talks with the Most Prominent Free Agent!) Immediately, there were follow-up questions about why he would release the information in the face of the information blackout enforced by Ohtani’s camp, which has said that it will hold leaks against teams with which they are negotiating. General manager Brandon Gomes admitted a few hours later that he was surprised Roberts had confirmed the meetings, refusing to comment on them himself.
None of this is necessary. At the All-Star Game, Ohtani circulates among temporary teammates, laughing and posing for pictures, signing autographs for them. There is so much respect for him and for his unique talent, and his free agency could have had the same feel.
Instead, this is our reality: A couple of weeks ago, Ohtani sat with a cute dog as he was awarded the Most Valuable Player. It raised a simple question: What’s the name of the dog?
As discussed on the Nov. 20 “Baseball Tonight” podcast, calls were made to ascertain that small detail. The response, through channels, was this: Ohtani’s camp was not prepared to release the dog’s name. Again, maybe this was Ohtani’s decision. Maybe he was getting bad advice. But it was really pretty silly.
He is arguably the greatest international baseball star since Babe Ruth, transcending the sport’s typical orbit, and the potential impact of that during his free agency has been squandered. Just imagine how much better served we all would have been if this window was handled progressively, rather than with paranoia. Just as he has done on the field, Ohtani could have set a new standard — this time for free agent campaigns.
Imagine if Ohtani had concluded his visit with the Toronto Blue Jays — the one that neither manager John Schneider nor GM Ross Atkins would confirm Tuesday, given multiple opportunities — with a Zoom call with reporters. He could open with an homage to the city of Toronto, before describing the impressive tour of the team’s new spring training complex. He could’ve talked about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s power, Bo Bichette‘s aggressiveness at the plate, Kevin Gausman‘s splitter. He could’ve mentioned Schneider’s humor, thanked Mark Shapiro and Atkins for their time. He could’ve capped his reflections with an observation about the Maple Leafs, about Joe Carter’s home run. And he could have wrapped it up by announcing a donation to Jays Care — say, $50,000, pocket change for a player who already makes tens of millions of dollars in endorsements, before he gets the richest contract in the history of North American professional sports — to help children. He could’ve deftly answered a few questions from local reporters, easily deflecting the question of where he intends to play by saying he was still going through the process.
He could’ve done the same thing with the Chicago Cubs, the Dodgers and every other team he considered. No matter which team he picked in the end, his time with each franchise would’ve lifted up the organization, along with its players, and raised awareness for its charity. He could’ve lifted baseball.
Ohtani is entitled to his privacy, of course, and as we’ve seen with other sports, employment choices made in the full glare of fan attention can go wrong. LeBron James has excelled in his handling of his career, but you wonder if he would broadcast The Decision again, if he had a chance to do it all over again.
And Ohtani’s reflex always has seemed to be to bear as little media and fan responsibility as possible, as was clear in his years in Anaheim. But the biggest stars in sports — Michael Jordan, Derek Jeter, Patrick Mahomes et al — understood that by speaking with the media, they are speaking to the patrons of their sport: the fans — the paying customers.
Ohtani has not yet embraced that opportunity. And as he nears his decision in the midst of an imposed information blackout, he has missed a chance to serve the game he loves.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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