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Health care and how much it costs is scary. But youre not alone with this stuff, and knowledge is power. An Arm and a Leg is a podcast about these issues, and is co-produced by KFF Health News.VISIT ARMANDALEGSHOW.COM

Some hospitals sue patients over unpaid medical bills in bulk, sometimes by the hundreds of thousands. The defendants are often already facing financial hardship or even bankruptcy.

Judgments against patients in these suits can derail someones life but, according to experts, they don’t bring hospitals much money.

So why do hospitals do it?

Host Dan Weissmann investigates this practice with The Baltimore Banner and Scripps News and speaks to patients whove found themselves on the receiving end of such lawsuits.

Weissmann also speaks with Nick McLaughlin, an entrepreneur whos making the business case for hospitals to stop trying to collect money from people who simply dont have it. Dan Weissmann @danweissmann Host and producer of "An Arm and a Leg." Previously, Dan was a staff reporter for Marketplace and Chicago's WBEZ. His work also appears on All Things Considered, Marketplace, the BBC, 99 Percent Invisible, and Reveal, from the Center for Investigative Reporting. Credits Emily Pisacreta Producer Adam Raymonda Audio wizard Ellen Weiss Editor Bella Czajkowski Producer Click to open the Transcript Transcript: When Hospitals Sue Patients (Part 1) Note: An Arm and a Leg uses speech-recognition software to generate transcripts, which may contain errors. Please use the transcript as a tool but check the corresponding audio before quoting the podcast.

[birds singing]

Dan: Hey there. Starting this episode with a field trip.

[dogs barking]

Dan (from field tape): I hear dogs. I’m in the right place.

Dan: Nick McLaughlin lives outside Kalamazoo, Michigan. The email with his address said: Long gravel driveway, blue house. He’d said he’d be outside with his dogs, enjoying a cup of coffee. This is a big lot, with a pond on one side, a lake on the other, and huge trees all around.

Nick: So yeah, when I said I was sitting out enjoying a cup of coffee, this is a pretty good spot to do it. Pretty cool bird action. We had some neat, red headed woodpeckers going this morning.

Dan: He’s lived in the area since he was in high school. His parents still live nearby. So do his in laws. He’s married to his high school sweetheart — they got married while they were still in college. That’s also when Nick started working in medical collections.

Nick: I just saw a part time job listing in the college job website for a patient financial counselor. Didn’t know what that meant. Uh, and next thing I knew I had a, uh, headset on and was talking to patients about two and three year old hospital bills that they had. And my parents about disowned me. My mom’s a nurse, uh, and my dad’s a PhD environmental scientist. And so, um, Their line was, what are you doing calling sick people asking for money?

Dan: He says they came around. After a couple of years, he quit the call center and ended up in sales for a company called AmeriCollect. As the name suggests, they’re a collection agency. Specifically, medical-bill collections. Hospitals and medical groups are their clients. Nick started as Americollect’s first sales rep in Michigan, then after a year or so, branched out.

Nick: It was Michigan, Indiana. Ohio. Pennsylvania, and then North Carolina and, then we’re just kinda all over.

Dan: You were really good at this. 

Nick: I was good at this.

Dan: Nick spent a decade at AmeriCollect. The company’s slogan was, is — and I swear this is true: “ridiculously nice.” Its on their website and Nick says it was part of their pitch to clients.

Nick: The pitch was, we’re going to be more effective in connecting with your people, maintaining your reputation, with them and your community, and, oh, by the way, we’re also effective at recovering the dollars that are owed to you, uh, by being ridiculously nice, was the line.

Dan: I’ve come to Nick for insights on one of the most ridiculously nasty parts of American health care: Because some hospitals and medical providers don’t just send bill collectors — nice or otherwise– after patients. Some hospitals sue their patients over unpaid bills — filing lawsuits by the hundreds, or even thousands, every year. And here’s a twist: These lawsuits don’t bring hospitals much money. So why do they do it? I’ve been interested in this question for years. And this year, I’ve had a lot of help chasing it, working with amazing journalists from two incredible news outlets. We had some ideas when we started — hypotheses, that we tested together. And those hypotheses… they were wrong. But we discovered something along the way that, well, no one else seems to have discovered yet. And for once, its actually not-bad news. Surprisingly hopeful. Of course we also learned things that made me super-mad… and the whole inquiry absolutely made clear some ways we can all look out for ourselves and each other. It’s a bunch. So we’re bringing it to you in a two-parter. Strap in.

With Scripps News and the Baltimore Banner, this is An Arm and a Leg — a show about why health care costs so freaking much, and what we can maybe do about it. I’m Dan Weissmann. I’m a reporter, and I like a challenge. So our job on this show is to take one of the most enraging, terrifying, depressing parts of American life, and bring you something entertaining, empowering, and useful. Before we get into big trends, numbers, all that– let’s start with just one family’s story.

Casey and Ron Gasior live in South Milwaukee. Our summer intern, Bella Czakowski, met them there in August.

Bella Czajkowski: Hi, Bella, nice to meet you. My husband, Ron.

Dan: Casey and Ron met in a bar almost 20 years ago. He was working there, and

then so was she. They were close– as friends.

Ron: A lot of people thought that we were together because we were so close.

Casey: But we never had anything to do with each other and that’s a sore subject. On his part. Because

Bella: Because you were interested back then?

Ron: Yes. Yeah. Who knows, I mean, if we would have been together back then, it might not have lasted. She was young, I was older, but I still I didn’t have my stuff together, you know. Whatever.

Dan: They married other people, drifted apart, and reconnected as friends years later –by which time both marriages were in trouble. Casey and Ron both got divorces, then got together, then bought this house eight months later. They got married in 2017. And then came the wave — waves– of medical issues.

Casey: His back, his knee, my heart.

Dan: Atrial fibrillation. That’s three procedures between them. And time off work to recover, less income. Another two procedures for Casey– carpal tunnel– more time away from work.

Casey: And at that time, too, I was also diagnosed with diabetes. So there was, there was a lot.

Dan: And there were lots of bills. They had insurance, but there’s always “Your portion.” It adds up. Plus Casey’s meds for diabetes and a-fib.

Casey: we would dig little bit out of our hole, and then we’d go right back down. And it to the where we we can’t even pay these

Dan: And then they started falling behind on house payments too.

Casey: There was a few nights in the garage, trying to figure out what our next step was.

Dan: In the garage, where Ron’s teenage daughter couldn’t hear.

Casey: We tried to do all of this without our daughter knowing, you know, cause

you don’t want to stress a kid out.

Dan: They ecided the best of their bad options was Chapter 13 bankruptcy: Wrapping all their debts into a giant five-year payment plan. It would let them keep the house and their cars, if they were able to make the payments. It was really tough. The pandemic didn’t help. But in the spring of 2023, they were a couple months away from getting discharged, when they got a letter from a law firm– looking to collect money on a medical bill. It said

Casey: That I needed to call them to make payment arrangements by a certain date Ron: Well, not to make arrangements. They wanted to payments. To make payments.

Casey: By a certain date. Otherwise, we’d be going to court.

Dan: The bill was three thousand dollars– for a medical procedure that happened before the bankruptcy. But the bill had come after. They say they called the lawyer, explained: Until we’re discharged from bankruptcy — which we will be soon — we’re actually not allowed to pay you. According to Casey and Ron, the lawyer was rude and said, essentially: See you in court. When they did, Casey says, the judge told the lawyer on the other side: These folks aren’t allowed to pay you anything until their bankruptcy is done. And told the Gasiors: When you’re discharged, do make arrangements to pay. So that’s one story– a lawsuit against folks who literally weren’t allowed to pay.

And every story is gonna be different, but the big picture: Lawsuits filed against people who — even without a court order — just couldn’t pay — that’s not a one-off. Lots of folks — reporters, researchers, advocates — have been documenting this phenomenon — hospitals suing patients by the hundreds or even thousands– for a long time. For instance, in Maryland, a study from 2020 found a hundred and forty thousand lawsuits that hospitals had filed against patients over a ten-year period. In New York, a series of reports looked at more than 50,000 lawsuits over just five years. 

Elisabeth Benjamin co-wrote those New York reports. She’s the vice president for health initiatives at the Community Service Society of New York. And one of the findings that shocked her was: how small the amounts were that folks were being sued for– like, compared to a hospital’s bottom line. Or even compared to an average hospital bill.

Elisabeth Benjamin: They’re suing people for pennies. right. The average lawsuit is maybe 1900 bucks. So they’re suing them for chump change, but that $1,900 is like life ruining for the patient.

Dan: Because the people getting sued tend to be people who are just getting by– if they’re even getting by. Elisabeth Benjamin found: People whose wages get garnished to pay medical debts tend to work for low-wage employers. And our colleagues at the Baltimore Banner found that in Maryland, people who get sued over medical bills tend to live in census tracts where poverty is high. Elisabeth Benjamin turned up another finding that surprised her: The hospitals filing the most lawsuits were not always the kinds of places that were hard-up for money. And lots of hospitals that were hard up for money weren’t filing any lawsuits.

Elisabeth Benjamin: In other words, there’s many hospitals that are either making it or not making it, but are not suing people. At least in New York, most hospitals are good guys. I mean, they wouldn’t dream of suing people. And then there’s like this cruddy, top 20, top 15 that are responsible for huge amounts of the lawsuits. And it doesn’t seem like the amounts theyre suing for really has any bearing on any hospitals bottom line. So then it begs the question of, well, what are they doing this for in the first place?

Dan: That’s basically the question I started with. What are they doing this for in the first place? And I just want to underline one of Elisabeth Benjamin’s findings: not all hospitals do this– file lawsuits in bulk. Most hospitals don’t. Other studies have found the same thing. So, it’s not a necessity. It’s a choice. And for the majority of hospitals, its a choice that seems to run counter to a pretty important fact: Theyre organized as non-profit charities. They pay no taxes, and they give donors big tax write-offs. And theyre legally obligated to provide charity care: To have policies saying how theyll write off bills for folks who cant pay. 

I mean, even for-profit hospitals tend to have policies like that, without a legal obligation. So, suing people in bulk, its an interesting choice. I wanted to talk with people who were part of the conversations where hospitals give the order: This is how we’re going to collect. And I got to talk with a couple of those people. One of them was Nick McLaughlin. Because Nick says, when a hospital sues patients– especially if they’re filing lawsuits in bulk, by the hundreds or thousands– a lot of the time, they’re not sending a staff attorney, or even picking a lawyer directly. The collection agency handles all that. But as Nick tells me: the strategy, the question of whether or not to sue, how hard to chase people– that all comes from the client, someone like the hospital’s revenue director.

Nick: We had clients at AmeriCollect where, they’d say, collect on it for six months and afterwards cancel it back.

Dan: Cancel it back. Meaning, cancel the assignment. Just dont even bother trying to collect after six months. We’ll write it off.

Nick: And we’d say, you sure? Six months isn’t very long. And they’d say, “That’s what we want.” it’s more standard to be, two years.

Dan: What’s the recovery like in those intervening 18 months? Like how much more you get?

Nick: Not a ton.

Dan: Because — and this was the part that stuck with me the most– by the time a bill gets sent to a collection agency, it’s unlikely to actually be collected. When Nick was pitching AmeriCollect’s services, the pitch wasn’t, “We collect more than anybody else.” Because: that wasn’t a relevant pitch.

Nick: You’re normally not really gonna move the needle much from one collection agency to another. Meaning one collection agency might collect 10 percent, the next collection agency might collect 12 percent.

Dan: That’s a difference of two percent– but two percent of WHAT? Two percent of what’s already a very narrow slice of hospitals’ income.

I talked with an analyst for a consulting company called Kodiak– they run the numbers on this kind of thing. He said hospitals get about 90 percent of their money from insurance. By the time they send us bills, hospitals have already got 90 percent of their money. And then: a lot of people are able to pay their bills before getting sent to collections. Nick says maybe five or six percent of hospital bills– in dollars– get sent to collections at all. And Nick says, when you’re looking for someone to chase folks for that five or six percent, the difference between one agency and another is… not much.

Nick: One agency is collecting 10 percent of 5 percent and one agency is collecting 12 percent of 5%. We’re talking about a difference of, fractions of a fraction of a percent.

Dan: And even if ALL of the difference — the fractions of a fraction of a percent — is because you went hard after people, took them to court… it really looks like peanuts. 

This lines up with what journalists and advocates have documented in their reports: They compare the total, aggregate amounts hospitals are suing for, and compare it to the institutions annual surplus. Or pay for top executives. The amounts their suing for– total– always look tiny in comparison. So the decision to do something like sue people in bulk, it doesn’t seem to Nick like it’s based on numbers. In fact, here’s where the mystery gets eeper. Because: You may have noticed, Nick’s been talking about Americollect in the past tense. He doesn’t work there anymore. These days he runs his own business, pitching his old clients — and any other hospital system he can get to listen — on a completely different approach: No matter how ridiculously nice your collections agents may be, he tells them, you should be sending them a lot less business. You’d be better off forgiving those debts, through charity care, before ever sending the first bill. He’s pitching tech to help hospitals do that. And he’s not telling hospitals, you should do this to be nice. He’s telling them: this is better for your bottom line. How he got there, and the pitch he makes now– that’s next.

This episode of An Arm and a Leg is produced in partnership with KFF Health News– that’s a nonprofit newsroom covering health care in America. They are amazing journalists, and I learn from them all. The. Time. We’ll have a little more information about KFF Health News at the end of this episode.

This part of Nick’s story starts at a family holiday gathering in 2019. And a conversation with his wife’s grandfather, who was 86 at the time.

Nick: He and grandma were on social security and not a whole lot of extra resources. Pretty much your, standard salt of the earth, awesome people that serve everybody else and don’t have a ton. But are just fine with that.

Dan: But now grandpa had a 750 dollar hospital bill. Not so fine.

Nick: He said, Hey Nick, I know you know a lot about hospital bills. That’s a lot of money for an old guy like me. Do you know if there are any options ? And I said, Well, sure, Grandpa.Have you ever, looked into financial assistance? And he looked at me and said, What’s that?

Dan: Financial assistance — also known as charity care — is when a hospital agrees to reduce your bill, or just write it off, because you don’t make enough money to pay it.

And Nick knew all about charity care because since he’d started working at Americollect, having a charity care policy had become a legal obligation for nonprofit hospitals — which is to say, the majority of American hospitals — thanks to a provision in the Affordable Care Act.

Nick’s company, AmeriCollect, had kept on top of that new law, and he says they helped hospitals make sure they were complying with it.

Nick: We put together policy templates and sample financial assistance policies and application forms

Dan: He says it was, in its way, a long-game sales strategy. If you develop a reputation among hospitals as someone who’s trustworthy and helpful and smart, then next time they need a new bill collector, they’ll keep you in mind. Anyway, when Nick’s grandpa said, “What’s financial assistance?” Nick was ready to go.

Nick: I said, let’s see if you qualify um, so I pulled up, the hospital’s website and pulled up their financial assistance policy, um, which was 16 pages long. And I thought to myself, how in the world would grandpa get an answer to the question, do I qualify for financial assistance?

Dan: Nick has looked at a lot of super-long financial-assistance forms since then, and he can rattle off the kinds of questions they ask:

Nick: What kind of cars do you drive? Your make and model. How much do you think that it’s worth? And how much do you owe on it? What is the value of your primary residence? How much are you spending each month on house payment, car payment, groceries, cell phone bill, a breakdown of a monthly budget?

Dan: In other words, a LOT. Nick says some of the detailed questions were put there in anticipation of proposed federal laws and regulations that never got adopted. So, Nick was super well versed in all this stuff. He’d helped hospitals design their charity care policies.

Nick: But I hadn’t spent a whole lot of time thinking about what it would be like from the patient’s perspective to try to navigate a hospital’s financial assistance program.

Dan: He was like, before jumping into all this, Grandpa, let’s just figure out if it’s worth it. Are you likely to qualify? And Nick knew how to get an answer: Because he knew, the way hospital charity-care policies work is: They compare your income to a multiple of the federal poverty level. At this hospital it was 250 percent. Nick learned what grandma and grandpa got from social security, compared it to that federal poverty number.

Nick: And so I was like, all right, well, hey grandpa, it looks like you’re going to qualify for financial assistance, let’s print out an application and start filling it out. It was bare because it was a beast of an application. But eventually he was approved for Medicaid and never received another hospital bill for the rest of his life.

Dan: And the 750 bucks? 

Nick: Disappeared.

Dan: It got Nick thinking about a presentation he’d seen a couple of years before. This was when a lot of hospitals were first rolling out their charity-care policies to comply with the new law. One of the national Catholic hospital chains was giving a talk about their policy.

Nick: We offer 75 percent discounts up to 400 percent of the federal poverty level. And I just kind of sat back in my chair and thought, 400 percent of the federal

poverty level.

Dan: That sounded like it might cover a lot of people. Like, how many people in this country make less than that? Maybe a lot. He looked it up later, and I did too:

4 times the federal poverty level for a single person is about 58 thousand a year. And almost 60 percent of Americans make less than that.

Nick: So the next logical step is, Okay, well, uh, People that hospitals send to collections, would you imagine that they have higher incomes or lower incomes than your average American? I think it’s fair to say that we can guess that they’re lower on the income scale than the average American.

Dan: So it would seem like most people who get sent to collections… would’ve qualified for financial assistance. And since, according to industry consultants, most BILLS that get sent to collections never get collected it also seems like: A lot of people who are getting chased by collections agents, maybe getting sued, would have qualified for charity care. Which, duh, maybe. I mean, a lot of reporters and advocates have written a lot of reports showing exactly that. To a lot of people, it looks like an outrage. But with Nick’s knowledge of hospital revenue departments, he saw it as something else: An opportunity. By spending all that effort on chasing folks who wouldn’t and couldn’t pay, hospitals were WASTING MONEY on that effort. And– again, because Nick really knows the nerdy details– he figured hospitals were also leaving other money on the table. Like from Medicaid, which would be paying for Grandpa’s hospital bills– not just for that first 750 dollar charge, but on every bill for the rest of his life. That’s money the hospital would’ve had a hard time getting from grandpa. And Nick thought: A guy could build a business helping hospitals save money over here and pick up money over there. So he quit his job at AmeriCollect to start that business. I asked him to do his pitch for me.

Nick: Uh, pitch. Are you looking for basically what we present to hospitals and stuff like that? Yeah.

Dan: He does this at conferences a few times a year. He pulled up PowerPoint, put it in Presenter View.

Nick: Love presenter view. Hey, let me just fire away. Yeah.

Dan: And we were off.

Nick: So, as the host mentioned, I spent my first 12 years in the industry in the hospital billing and collections world.

Dan: Nick skipped a few details– actually, looking over his shoulder I noticed a key one.

Dan (from field tape): this paragraph that you skipped, like, the cost of sending those bills, you’re saying, like, 2 dollars per.

Nick: Oh, yeah

Dan: Two bucks out of pocket. Even though it’s all automated, you’re spending a lot on the machines, the software, the paper– not to mention postage. And if someone’s headed to collections, you’re not just sending them one bill.

Nick: if you think about three statements and a final notice, and customer service cost for supporting all of that, it’s not insignificant.

Dan: Oh yeah: Customer service cost. That’s the call center. So that’s savings. Then there’s money you pick up. Nick proposes that hospitals basically just ask people their income up front, along with their insurance information. He’s offering them an easy web form to give patients. And he says when hospitals use that form, like ten percent of patients turn out to be eligible for Medicaid. He tells hospitals:

Nick: These are great opportunities to help them get on the Medicaid program, and help you get paid for the care that you provided.

Dan: And Nick says Medicaid isnt the only opportunity to get paid. Lots of people with regular insurance also have deductibles and other patient responsibilities that can get into the thousands of dollars. Which makes a lot of people think twice about going in for care, if they can avoid it. And: Not only could a lot of those people meet the income requirements for charity care– remember, almost 60 percent could meet those requirements at some hospitals — hospitals can adopt charity-care policies that cover people who do have insurance. Which, Nick argues can be a money-making opportunity.

Nick: Um, a question I like to pose is: If a low income patient is on the fence about getting a procedure at your hospital, for example, a knee replacement, that will get you paid 15,000 by their insurance…

Dan: … then wouldnt it be smart to offer them charity care so they dont worry about their deductible? Youd be unlocking that 15 thousand dollars from their insurance company. Nick’s pitch sounded pretty solid to me. He’s got some clients, and a backer — a bigger company that’s investing in his work. He says people chat him up after he gives these talks… but he does hear some — not pushback, exactly. More like…

Nick: Eh, we’ll do what we need to do to be compliant, but we’ve got other things to deal with that, we’re not really going to worry about this too much.

Dan: In other words, it’s not a priority. Maybe not where the big money is. But then, lawsuits — especially lawsuits against people who can’t pay– aren’t where the big money is either. Why do these folks allow themselves to be literally party to them?

Nick: It’s really, I would say philosophically-based.

Dan: Philosophically-based. Up to the philosophy of the collection agency and the hospital revenue director. In part two of this story, we’ll hear from someone in the collections world whos ready to argue, philosophically, that it’s OK to sue people for medical bills they just can’t pay.

Scott Purcell: If you just sued somebody who can’t pay, they’re not out any money. So you made a bad business decision. But truly Dan, what is the harm they’re experiencing?

Dan: And we’ll hear about the case of the disappearing lawsuits

Ryan Little: So on September 18th, I said, Maryland hospitals are dot, dot, dot…

Basically not suing anyone for medical debt anymore. 

Dan: Yep!

Meanwhile, this is a GREAT time to make a donation to keep this show going. Projects like this take a TON of time and money. And right now, every dollar you give is being MATCHED by other Arm and a Leg listeners.

The NewsMatch program from the Institute for Nonprofit News has matched as much as they can for this year, and a few super-generous listeners have put up MORE matching funds. Go take them up on it!

Theres a link in the show notes, wherever youre listening, or head to arm-and-a-leg-show, dot com, slash, support. (https://armandalegshow.com/support/)

Thank you so much! Your help makes a huge difference. Well be back in two weeks with part two. 

Till then, take care of yourself.

This episode of An Arm and a Leg was produced by me, Dan Weissmann, with help from Bella Czakowski and  Emily Pisacreta in partnership with the Scripps News, the Baltimore Banner, and the McGraw Center for Business Journalism at the Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at the City University of New York.

Our work on this story is supported by the Fund for Investigative Journalism, and edited by Ellen Weiss.

Daisy Rosario is An Arm and a Legs consulting managing producer.

Gabrielle Healy is our managing editor for audience — she edits the First Aid Kit newsletter.

Sarah Ballema is our Operations Manager. 

Bea Bosco is our Consulting Director of Operations.

An Arm and a Leg is produced in partnership with KFF Health News.

That’s a national newsroom producing in-depth journalism about health care in America, and a core program at KFF an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism.

You can learn more about KFF Health News at arm and a leg show dot com, slash KFF. (https://armandalegshow.com/about-x/partners-and-supporters/kaiserhealthnews/)

Zach Dyer is senior audio producer at KFF Health News. He is editorial liaison to this show.

Thanks to the INSTITUTE FOR NONPROFIT NEWS for serving as our fiscal sponsor, allowing us to accept tax-exempt donations. You can learn more about INN at I-N-N dot org. (https://inn.org/)

And, finally, thanks to everybody who supports this show financially.

If you havent yet, wed love for you to pitch in to join us. Again, the place for that is arm and a leg show dot com, slash support.(https://armandalegshow.com/support/)

An Arm and a Leg is a co-production of KFF Health News and Public Road Productions.

This episode was produced in partnership with Scripps News, The Baltimore Banner, and the McGraw Center for Business Journalism at the Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at the City University of New York.

Work by An Arm and a Leg on this article is supported by the Fund for Investigative Journalism.

To keep in touch with An Arm and a Leg, subscribe to the newsletter. You can also follow the show on Facebook and X, formerly known as Twitter. And if youve got stories to tell about the health care system, the producers would love to hear from you.

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.


National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.


National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.


National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.


National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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Why suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer

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Why suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer

After a tricky few weeks for the government, in which backbenchers overturned plans to cut back welfare spending, now a heavy hand to get the party into line.

Three newly-elected MPs, Neil Duncan-Jordan, MP for Poole, Brian Leishman, MP for the new Alloa and Grangemouth constituency, and Chris Hinchcliff, for North East Herefordshire, have all had the whip suspended.

Rachael Maskell, MP for York Central, who was first elected a decade ago, is the fourth.

Politics latest: Labour MP ‘appalled’ after Starmer suspends rebels

They will all sit as independent MPs and will not be allowed to stand for Labour at the next election, unless readmitted. All appear to be surprised – and upset.

Three more have lost plum roles as trade enjoys – Dr Rosena Allin-Khan, Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Mohammed Yasin, all on the left of the party.

All were active in the rebellion against the government’s welfare reforms, and voted against the changes even after a series of U-turns – but were among 47 Labour MPs who did so.

When MPs were told after the welfare vote that Number 10 was “fully committed to engaging with parliamentarians”, this was not what they were expecting.

We’re told the reasons for these particular suspensions go wider – over “persistent breaches of party discipline” – although most are not high profile.

In the scheme of things, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell rebelled against the Labour whip hundreds of times under New Labour, without being suspended.

But these MPs’ pointed criticism of the Starmer strategy has clearly hit a nerve.

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Suspended MP: ‘There are lines I will not cross’

Maskell – who was referred to, jokingly, in the House of Commons earlier this month by Tory MP Danny Kruger as “the real prime minister” – led the rebellion against cuts to winter fuel allowance which triggered a U-turn which she said would still leave pensioners in fuel poverty.

There was an attack on the government’s values. Duncan-Jordan, a trade unionist who won the Poole seat by just 18 votes, led the welfare rebellion, telling Sky News the proposed cutbacks were “not a very Labour thing to do”.

Hinchliff, who has also opposed the government’s housebuilding strategy and plans to expand Luton airport,had told his local paper he was willing to lose the whip over welfare cuts if necessary. He also has a marginal seat, won by fewer than 2,000 votes.

Read more:
Who are the suspended Labour MPs?

Leishman, a former pro golfer, has also been vocal about government plans to close the refinery in his Grangemouth constituency after promising to try and make it viable. They are MPs who the leadership fear are going for broke – and that’s concerning as more tough decisions on spending are likely to come.

But after a poorly-handled welfare vote, in which MPs seemed to be in the driving seat forcing changes, will this instil a sense of discipline over the summer break?

While some MPs will see this as a deterrent to rebellion, for those whose chances of re-election are small, it may continue to be seen as a price worth paying.

To other Labour MPs, the move is confusing and may be counter-productive. One Labour MP on the left told me: “So, we’re suspending people for winning an argument with the government?”

Another, in the centre, feared it looked divisive, saying: “We need to go into the summer focused on the opposition – not involved in our melodramas.”

Number 10 wants to show rebelling comes at a price – but many Labour MPs with concerns about their political direction will want to know the prime minister is planning to listen to concerns before it gets to that point.

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