CFB Player Rank: Top 100 players of the 2023 season
The best player in college football is always an arbitrary choice. Is it the guy who won the Heisman Trophy? Jayden Daniels is surely deserving. Is it the player who’s carried his team to the highest point? Michael Penix Jr.’s performance in the Allstate Sugar Bowl was legendary. Or is it the player who’ll likely go first in the NFL draft? Caleb Williams was awesome in 2023 — even if his defense was not. The answer is always up for debate, but ESPN’s staff of college football writers weighed in to come up with not just the nation’s best player — but a ranking of the top 100 players of the 2023 season. It’s a list guaranteed to have you nodding in agreement with each flawless pick. –David Hale
Methodology: Voters were presented with a series of one-on-one votes. For example, “Who should be ranked higher following the 2023 season: Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix Jr.?” Think of it as an Oklahoma drill of statistical reasoning. More than 10,000 votes later, these are the results.
Jump to: 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | 81-90 | 91-100
QB, LSU, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,812 yards, 40 TD, 4 INT, 10 rushing TD
Preseason ranking: 15
On his way to winning the Heisman Trophy, Daniels led the country with 4,946 yards in total offense (nearly 600 yards more than the next-closest player) and accounted for 50 touchdowns (40 passing and 10 rushing). Daniels joined Johnny Manziel as the only two players in SEC history to pass for 3,500 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season.
QB, Washington, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 4,648 yards, 35 TD, 9 INT
Preseason ranking: 6
In his second year with Washington, Penix had one of the greatest seasons in program history, finishing second in the Heisman Trophy voting and leading the Huskies to a 13-0 record and the Pac-12 title, and he also won the Maxwell Award, presented to the best player in college football.
WR, Ohio State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 67 rec, 1,211 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: 3
Harrison, the Biletnikoff Award winner, became the first receiver in Ohio State history to record consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. He caught 67 passes for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Big Ten’s best offense (425.0 total YPG). Harrison is No. 2 on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board.
QB, Oregon, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 4,508 yards, 45 TD, 3 INT
Preseason ranking: 14
Nix was sensational for the Ducks, especially in Pac-12 play, as he earned him first-team All-Pac-12 and was named the conference’s Offensive Player of the Year. The Auburn transfer ranked second in QBR (91.2) behind only Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, and threw 45 touchdown passes to just three interceptions while being sacked just five times.
TE, Georgia, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 56 rec, 714 yards, 6 TD
Preseason ranking: 2
The first two-time winner of the Mackey Award as the sport’s best tight end, Bowers proved this past season that he not only runs faster and blocks better than others — he also heals faster. After TightRope surgery to repair a high ankle sprain, Bowers returned to action 26 days later. He had 56 catches for 714 yards with six touchdowns in 10 games.
WR, LSU, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 89 rec, 1,569 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: 37
Nabers, who became LSU’s career leader in receptions, tied for third this season among Power 5 players with 89 catches. He led the country with an average of 120.7 receiving yards per game and tied for third with 14 touchdown catches while finishing second to Marvin Harrison Jr. for the Biletnikoff Award as the top receiver in college football.
WR, Washington, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,553 yards, 13 TD
Preseason ranking: 20
The Washington wideout may not have been the winner of the Biletnikoff Award, but he had a season worthy of such recognition. Odunze was arguably the best player for the Huskies all season long, tallying 1,553 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging more than 17 yards a catch through the CFP semifinal. Whenever quarterback Michael Penix Jr. needed to make a key throw in a crucial moment, you could bet the ball was going to be headed Odunze’s way.
OLB, Alabama, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 10 sacks, 28 solo tackles
Preseason ranking: 28
Turner was named the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year by the league’s coaches. The 6-4, 252-pound junior leads Alabama with 14.5 tackles for loss and also recorded 10 sacks. Turner became the 41st player under Nick Saban at Alabama to earn consensus All-America honors.
OL, Notre Dame, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: allowed 3 pressures, 1 sack while missing 3 run blocks
Preseason ranking: 11
A year ago, Alt was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded offensive tackle. So, what did he do for a follow-up in 2023? He was, once again, the top-graded offensive tackle. Alt helped protect Sam Hartman and open run lanes for Audric Estime, and for the season, Alt allowed just three pressures and one sack while missing three run blocks total.
QB, USC, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,633 yards, 30 TD, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: 1
It was disappointing season overall for the Trojans, but that came despite another standout year for Williams, who remains the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Williams threw for 3,633 yards with 30 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. He added 11 rushing touchdowns.
RB, Oklahoma State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 285 car, 1,732 yards, 21 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Gordon broke out this year, becoming a unanimous All-American, the Doak Walker Award winner and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year after running for 1,732 yards and 21 TDs in the season. He had more than 250 scrimmage yards against Kansas, West Virginia and Cincinnati, the only FBS player in the past 10 years to do so in three straight games.
QB, Florida State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,756 yards, 20 TD, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: 8
The numbers tell a convincing story of Travis’ 2023 season: 27 total touchdowns, just shy of 3,000 yards and only two turnovers all season on an undefeated team. But much as FSU fans might hate it, the ultimate compliment came from the CFP committee, which essentially said Travis was irreplaceable. It wasn’t wrong. No player had more of an impact on dragging FSU from the brink of the abyss in 2020 to the brink of perfection in 2023 than Travis.
LB, NC State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 6 sacks, 3 INT, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 81
Wilson was, quite possibly, the best all-around defender in college football in 2023. He finished the regular season with 138 tackles (tops in the ACC, second in Power 5), six sacks, 17.5 tackles for loss, 10 QB hurries, six pass breakups, two fumble recoveries and three interceptions (including one returned for a TD). Basically if there’s a category on the defensive stat sheet, Wilson filled it this season.
DL, UCLA, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 13 sacks, 2 FF, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: 49
Latu won the Lombardi Award after leading the nation in tackles for loss per game (1.8) and ranked third win 13 sacks. He was part of a defense that ranked No. 16 nationally in scoring defense (18.4) and No. 12 in total defense (301.5 yards per game) in the regular season.
WR, Missouri, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 86 rec, 1,212 yards, 9 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The former five-star prospect blossomed as a sophomore and put together the best season for a Mizzou receiver since 2009: 83 catches, 1,197 yards and nine touchdowns. His five straight 100-yard receiving games drove Mizzou’s early unbeaten start, and he was instrumental in the Tigers’ first major bowl bid since 2013.
RB, Missouri, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 276 car, 1,627 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Schrader walked on at Mizzou after rushing for 2,000 yards at Division II’s Truman State, and after a solid 2022 campaign, he became one of the nation’s best backs in 2023. He rushed for 1,499 yards and 13 touchdowns and averaged 196.4 yards from scrimmage over Mizzou’s final five regular-season games.
DL, Texas, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 45 total tackles, 2 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
The 6-4, 362-pound intimidator brought home the first Outland Trophy for Texas in 46 seasons, leading a defense that allowed just 80.9 rushing yards per game, fourth-best nationally. Despite facing double-teams all year, Sweat did it all, finishing with 45 tackles and two sacks. He also blocked a kick and caught a TD pass in the Big 12 championship game.
QB, Alabama, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 2,834 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
One of the most improved players in the country, Milroe threw for 23 touchdowns, ran for another 12 and turned the ball over just six times this season as he lead the Tide to a 27-24 win over Georgia in the SEC championship game. Milroe ended the year with an 80.3 QBR.
CB, Iowa, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 26 solo tackles, 2 INT, 5 PD
Preseason ranking: 46
A vital piece of an Iowa defense that does a lot of things right, DeJean, No. 13 on Kiper’s Big Board, was the linchpin. DeJean, a unanimous All-American, recorded 41 tackles (26 solo), two interceptions and five passes defended for the country’s fifth-best defense (274.8 YPG).
OL, Penn State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: No sacks allowed in 382 pass-block snaps
Preseason ranking: 16
Fashanu bypassed a chance to be a potential first-round selection in 2023 to come back to Penn State for one more season. Led by Fashanu, eighth overall on Kiper’s Big Board, the Nittany Lions’ offensive line helped the team average 186.7 rushing yards — tops in the Big Ten.
DB, Michigan, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2 FF, 5 INT, 6 PD
Preseason ranking: NR
Sainristil made the transition from wide receiver to defensive back look easy for one of the best defenses in the country. He was a first-team All-Big Ten after recording 36 tackles (20 solo) with four tackles for loss, five interceptions and six passes defended.
QB, Georgia, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,941 yards, 24 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Beck had the unenviable position of replacing former Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett, who led the Bulldogs to back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022. All Beck did in his first season was complete 72.4% of his passes for 3,941 yards with 24 touchdowns and six picks. Georgia went 13-1 after a 63-3 win in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
ILB, Texas A&M, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 8 sacks, 2 FF, 83 total tackles
Preseason ranking: NR
One of the few bright spots in another disappointing Texas A&M season, Cooper was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated FBS linebacker with a 91.7 grade. He was the only linebacker to grade higher than 85 in run defense, coverage and rushing the quarterback. He had 83 tackles, eight sacks and two forced fumbles.
CB, Alabama, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 24 solo tackles, 7 PD
Preseason ranking: 12
McKinstry has been an integral part of Alabama’s secondary since his freshman season. One of the top coverage cornerbacks in the country, the 6-1, 195-pound junior recorded 24 solo tackles this season and broke up seven passes. He’s No. 22 on Kiper’s Big Board.
S, Notre Dame, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 30 solo tackles, 1 FF, 7 INT, 4 PD
Preseason ranking: NR
Sometimes interceptions don’t tell an accurate story of a defender’s impact, but in Watts’ case, his FBS-best seven picks only underscore just how exceptional he was throughout 2023. He recorded 52 total tackles (30 solo) and had four passes defensed.
WR, Oregon, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 81 rec, 1,383 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The explosive receiver ranked third in FBS with 14 touchdown receptions during a season in which he finished with 81 catches for 1,383 yards (No. 6 in the country in total yards). He was particularly good in Pac-12 play, with six 100-yard receiving games in six conference games. He had at least four catches in all but one game this season with the exception being a two-catch game in USC with 147 yards.
DL, Illinois, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 26 solo tackles, 7.5 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 35
Newton, the 2023 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, recorded 52 tackles (26 solo) with 8.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks for Illinois this season. Newton, who was a Nagurski Trophy finalist, is 16th overall on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board for 2024.
QB, Oklahoma, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,660 yards, 30 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: 60
Gabriel has already moved on to Oregon, but he cemented his place as an Oklahoma legend when he became the first OU QB with at least 250 passing yards and 100 rushing yards against Texas, driving the Sooners 75 yards in 1:02 and threw a 3-yard TD pass to Nic Anderson with 15 seconds left in a 34-30 win. He passed for 3,660 yards, 30 TDs and 6 INTs and ran for 373 yards and 12 touchdowns.
DE, Florida State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats:
Preseason ranking: 9
Verse’s two years at FSU were remarkable by any measure, but it was his final two games after the Jordan Travis injury that solidified his status as a Noles legend. Against Florida and Louisville, he had 58 pass rushes, 13 pressures, 4.5 sacks, 20 tackles (11 at/behind the line), three QB hurries and one forced fumble, while opponents averaged just 2.7 yards per play (1.7 on the ground) when Verse was on the field.
WR, LSU, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,177 yards, 17 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Thomas and Malik Nabers teamed to form one of the most prolific pass-catching tandem in the country. Thomas’ 17 touchdown catches leads all FBS players, and he averaged 17.3 yards per catch. Thomas also had eight catches of 40 yards or longer.
QB, Arizona, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 2,869 yards, 25 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Had Fifita began the season as the Wildcats starter, he might have wound up as a serious Heisman Trophy candidate. That’s how good he was over the final two months of the season, leading Arizona to wins in its final six games of the year. He finished the year with 25 touchdowns and recorded a 83.7 QBR, placing him in the top 10 in the country in that stat.
CB, Alabama, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 40 solo tackles, 1 FF, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Arnold was one of Alabama’s most versatile defenders this season and lined up at a couple of different spots in the secondary when other players were injured. He leads the Crimson Tide with five interceptions and also had 6.5 tackles for loss to lead all Alabama defensive backs.
Michigan QB, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,851 yards, 22 TD, 4 INT
Preseason ranking: 39
McCarthy, a finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, was the point person for a Michigan offense that helped the team return to the College Football Playoff. McCarthy has thrown for 2,851 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions and has a QBR of 89.5.
QB, North Carolina, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 3,608 yards, 24 TD, 9 INT
Preseason ranking: 5
Despite a new offensive coordinator and playbook, plus a more balanced split with his ground game, Maye remained exceptional in 2023, accounting for 33 touchdowns and more than 4,000 yards of total offense. Maye wrapped his UNC career an 81.0 Total QBR, 79 touchdowns and more than 9,500 yards — enough to be in the conversation for the top spot in the 2024 NFL draft.
CB, Colorado, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 3 INT on defense, 5 TD on offense
Preseason ranking: 70
A true two-way threat, Hunter was a key player for the Buffaloes at receiver and corner, playing a majority of the team’s snap on both sides. In nine games, he finished with 57 catches for 721 yards receiving and five touchdowns, with three interceptions.
OL, Kansas State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 1 sack allowed in 456 pass-block snaps
Preseason ranking: 27
Kansas State’s first Outland Trophy finalist, Beebe started 48 games for the Wildcats, allowing just one sack since 2021. This year, playing mostly left guard, he helped power a run game that averaged 204 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
RB, Texas, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,139 yards, 10 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Brooks stepped into big shoes, replacing Bijan Robinson as Texas’ starter, and despite tearing his ACL late in the season against TCU, ran for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games, which ranked sixth in the FBS in rushing yards and seventh in rushing yards per game (113.9 YPG). He had eight straight games with at least 98 rushing yards, including 218 against Kansas on Sept. 30. In the Big 12 Championship win over Oklahoma State, coach Steve Sarkisian sent him out to get the ball on the last play of the game to commemorate his role in getting there.
LB, Clemson, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 5.5 sacks, 2 FF, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: 21
Trotter was the physical and emotional leader of a Clemson defense that ranked second in efficiency in 2023. He led the Tigers with 88 tackles and 15 tackles for loss, along with 5.5 sacks, two INTs, two forced fumbles, 10 QB hurries and five pass breakups. It’s enough to ensure he’ll be among the first linebackers off the board in the 2024 NFL draft.
S, Alabama, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 70 solo tackles, 1 FF, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A starter from the outset of the season, Downs lived up to his billing as one of the top recruits in the country and played well beyond his years as a true freshman. He led the Crimson Tide with 107 total tackles, forced a fumble and also has two interceptions and a punt return for a touchdown.
OL, Oregon State, Junior
Notable 2023 stat: OSU offense averaged 426.9 total yards (180.8 YPG rushing) in regular season
Preseason ranking: NR
A first-team All-Pac-12 selection on the offensive line, Fuaga received several All-American nods after guiding one of the country’s best position groups. The Beavers’ line allowed just 15 sacks and, as a run-blocker, Fuaga earned the country’s best grade from Pro Football Focus.
OL, Michigan, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 4 blown blocks, not whistled for any penalties
Preseason ranking: 19
Zinter was named a unanimous first-team All-American this season after being the go-to guy on Michigan’s well-regarded offensive line, making sure things ran smoothly for J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum and crew. The Wolverines’ offense averaged 161.8 rushing yards a game, which finished sixth in the Big Ten.
UL, Oregon, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 0 sacks allowed in 469 pass block attempts
Preseason ranking: NR
There’s a reason Powers Johnson is headed to the NFL draft. The Ducks’ center was an anchor for their offense as he guarded quarterback Bo Nix and the helped fuel the team’s running to perfection. His work was aptly recognized this season as Powers-Johnson was awarded the 2023 Rimington Trophy, which recognizes the most outstanding center in college football.
C, Georgia, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 0.9 pressure pct allowed
Preseason ranking: 41
One of the best centers in the FBS, Van Pran was a steadying force on a Georgia offensive line that dealt with myriad injuries. Perhaps the greatest attestment to Van Pran’s importance was that he started 43 straight games. The Bulldogs went 41-2 in those games. He won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy and was a finalist for the Rimington Award, given to the top center in the FBS.
RB, Notre Dame, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,341 yards, 18 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
One of the most physical runners in the country, Estime racked up 1,341 yards on the ground (12th nationally) and scored 18 times. His 12.6% broken-tackle rate was among the best in the Power 5, which helped him to rack up 799 yards after contact this season, the eighth most nationally and fourth best among Power 5 backs.
LB, Ohio State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 40 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 47
Eichenberg recorded 80 tackles (40 solo), leading the team while playing in only 10 games this season for the Buckeyes. In three games (Western Kentucky, Maryland and Rutgers), he tallied double-digit tackles — with his 13 against Maryland a season high. The Buckeyes had the third-best defense in the FBS (259.9 YPG).
RB, Michigan, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,111 yards, 25 TD
Preseason ranking: 7
Corum led all running backs with 25 touchdowns, finding the end zone at least twice in nine different games for Michigan. The two-time Ameche-Dayne Big Ten Running Back of the Year recipient averaged 4.7 yards per carry.
RB, Boise State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,347 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Arguably no non-quarterback did more for an FBS offense than Jeanty, who was thrust into action after an early-season injury to George Holani. He finished with 1,347 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, and added 569 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 43 receptions. Jeanty led the FBS in average yards from scrimmage (159.7 YPG). The best news for Boise State? He will be back in 2024.
CB, Missouri, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 38 solo tackles, 1 FF, 4 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A stalwart for a physical Mizzou defense, Abrams-Draine allowed only a 37% completion rate and a 28.4 QBR as primary coverage guy. He picked off four passes, broke up 11 more, and proved his physicality with 2.5 tackles for loss, a run stuff and a pair of pressures on six pass rushes.
MLB, Alabama, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 32 solo tackles, 3 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
Lawson was sidelined for three games with injuries, but he was able to fight his way back into the lineup and become a key part of Alabama’s defense from his inside linebacker spot. He finished the season with 67 total tackles, including 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks.
DT, Alabama, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 29 solo tackles, 7 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
After suffering a spinal/neck injury after four games in 2022, Eboigbe wasn’t sure if he’d ever get to play football again. He not only worked his way back, but he was one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the FBS. He finished with 63 tackles, 11½ tackles for loss and seven sacks in 2023.
RB, Oregon, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,180 yards, 11 TD
Preseason ranking: 77
Irving was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection for the Ducks and rushed for 1,180 yards with 11 touchdowns. He rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games against Washington and Washington State in the middle of the seasons and is a vital cog in one of the most explosive scoring offenses in the country.
QB, Washington State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,735 yards, 25 TD, 7 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Ward became one of the top transfer targets in college football after passing for 3,735 yards, ranking No. 7 in FBS. The former Incarnate Word quarterback was at his best against Oregon State early in the season, when he threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns in what was a top-25 matchup at the time.
WR, Ole Miss, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 985 yards, 8 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The former Louisiana Tech transfer had an immediate impact at Ole Miss, leading the Rebels with 851 receiving yards on 47 catches with eight scores. Harris made the biggest impact in two of Ole Miss’ biggest wins with 153 receiving yards on eight catches in a 55-49 victory against LSU and 11-for-213 in a 38-35 win against Texas A&M.
WR, Florida State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 50 rec, 658 yards, 11 TD
Preseason ranking: 86
Coleman could be frustratingly inconsistent at times in 2023, but when he was clicking, he was borderline unstoppable. His 9 catches, 122 yards and 3 touchdown receptions in the opener against LSU set the tone for Florida State’s season, and he was nearly as impactful in wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech. For the year, he finished with 50 catches for 658 yards and 11 scores, adding another 300 yards as a punt returner.
WR, Virginia, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 110 rec, 1,426 yards, 9 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Among the most impactful transfers in the country, Washington used his one season at Virginia to demolish ACC defensive backs. He led the country with 110 catches in the regular season, finished third in receiving yards (1,426) and added nine touchdowns, despite Virginia using three different QBs throughout 2023.
WR, Texas, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,014 yards, 5 TD
Preseason ranking: 59
Worthy led the team in receiving yards with 1,014 yards on 75 catches, adding five touchdowns. His presence allowed transfer Adonai Mitchell to add another 845 yards and 11 TDs opposite him, with Mitchell saying it’s wild how much attention the speedy Worthy draws. Worthy was also a catalyst on special teams, with 371 yards on punt returns this season, including a 74-yard return TD against BYU.
S, Georgia, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 31 solo tackles, 3 INT, 7 PD
Preseason ranking: 40
It takes a pretty special freshman to start 14 games on Georgia’s defense, and that’s what Starks did in 2022. He was just as good this past season with 52 total tackles, 7 passes defended and 3 interceptions. He was a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the sport’s top defender.
CB, Clemson, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2 INT, 2 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
Wiggins earned first-team All-ACC honors after emerging as one of the best cornerbacks in the country, with a team-high 9 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions and 25 total tackles. His best game might have come against North Carolina, when he had eight tackles, forced a fumble on the goal line to prevent a touchdown and had a game-sealing interception on Drake Maye. Wiggins has already declared for the NFL draft. Kiper currently lists Wiggins as the No. 2 cornerback available.
DB, Georgia, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 46 solo tackles, 4 INT, 2 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
Foot and knee injuries prevented Smith from making a big impact at Georgia after he transferred from West Virginia in 2021. The senior safety saved his best for last, as he piled up 70 total tackles, 8½ tackles for loss, 4 interceptions and 2 sacks this past season. Smith’s versatility was invaluable for the UGA defense.
LB, Old Dominion, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 167 total tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
The prolific tackler who led the FBS with 189 tackles in 2022 continued to pile up stops for ODU. Henderson was second in the nation with 167 tackles, and he earned second-team AP All-America honors after receiving a host of All-America accolades last season. His career tackles-per-game average of 12.1 ranks third in FBS history, trailing only Boston College’s Luke Kuechly and Maryland’s E.J. Henderson.
RB, Florida State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 905 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: 69
Benson rushed for 905 yards and 14 touchdowns this past season, earning second-team All-ACC honors. With Jordan Travis out for the season, Benson saved his best for the final two games. In a 24-15 win at Florida, Benson ran for 95 yards — including three rushing touchdowns. Then in the ACC championship game against Louisville, Benson had 67 yards rushing to take pressure off third-string quarterback Brock Glenn. Benson is the only ACC player with two games with three rushing TDs in 2023.
RB, Texas Tech, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,541 yards, 10 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
After an 0-2 start, Tech rebounded to win seven games by handing the ball to Brooks. Over the final 11 games, Brooks averaged 24.6 carries and 130.2 yards. He finished with 1,541 yards, and the Red Raiders won six of his eight 100-yard games. The best news? He’s returning in 2024.
LB, Florida State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 33 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A first-team All-ACC selection, DeLoach took a star turn his senior season for the Seminoles — with 68 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery. He had the most important defensive play of the season against Clemson, when he sacked Cade Klubnik, forced a fumble, recovered it and returned it for a touchdown to tie the game in the third quarter. Florida State eventually won in overtime and finished the regular season undefeated.
RB, North Carolina, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 253 car, 1,504 yards, 15 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
A finalist for the Doak Walker Award, Hampton earned first-team All-ACC honors after a breakout sophomore season. Among FBS running backs, Hampton ranks fifth in rushing yards (1,504). In all, Hampton had seven 100-yard rushing games this season as he recorded 15 rushing touchdowns.
WR, South Carolina, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 71 rec, 1,255 yards, 7 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Legette played quarterback in high school, and it took him a while to get comfortable at receiver at South Carolina. After catching 42 passes in his first four seasons combined, Legette exploded as a fifth-year senior in 2023. He was second in the SEC with 1,255 receiving yards and third with 71 catches to go with seven scores.
LB, Iowa, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 79 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Higgins, a Butkus Award semifinalist, was a first-team All-Big Ten selection for a stingy Iowa defense that spearheaded a 10-win regular season. His 171 tackles (79 solo) this season led the Big Ten, ranked second nationally and was the most by a player from a Power 5 conference.
LB, North Carolina, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 121 total tackles, 5 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: 64
The first-team All-ACC selection continued his dominance in 2023, with 121 total tackles — second most in the ACC and ranked in the top 20 nationally. In addition, he has 11 tackles for loss, 7 quarterback pressures, 4 pass breakups, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 1 interception. Gray has declared for the NFL draft and opted out of the bowl game. Kiper has him ranked as the No. 6 off-ball linebacker available.
QB, Tulane, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,406 yards, 22 TD, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: 99
Few Group of 5 quarterbacks perform as well — or remain at the level — as long as Pratt did at Tulane, which nearly repeated as AAC champion and as a New Year’s Six bowl participant. Pratt eclipsed 2,300 passing yards and 20 touchdowns for the third consecutive season and posted a career-best completion percentage of 65.4. He became Tulane’s career passing leader with 9,603 yards and earned AAC Offensive Player of the Year honors.
QB, Colorado, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,230 yards, 27 TD, 3 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Sanders — and really, the entire Colorado team in general — experienced the highest of highs and lowest of lows this season. Behind an offensive line that gave him less and less protection as the year went on, Sanders threw for 3,230 yards and 27 touchdowns. In what was a noisy rebuilding year for the Buffs, Sanders stood out in singular moments but also showed that both he and Colorado have a ways to go.
RB, Washington, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 222 car, 1,162 yards, 16 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
While plenty of deserved noise surrounded Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze all year, Johnson’s back half of the season ensured that he would be mentioned among his teammates when discussing the Huskies’ potent offense. The running back from Mississippi has 1,162 yards on the ground and 16 touchdowns as Washington is heading to the CFP National Championship game, and his biggest performances came in statement fashion: 256 yards and four touchdowns against USC late in the year and 152 yards and two touchdowns in Washington’s Pac-12 title game victory over Oregon.
QB, Kansas State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,643 yards, 24 TD, 10 INT
Preseason ranking: 87
In his first full season as K-State’s starter, Howard threw for 2,643 yards, rushed for 455 more (not including sacks) and produced 33 combined TDs. He produced a QBR of 82 or higher in half his games, and the Wildcats went 6-0 and averaged 43 points per game when he did so.
DE, Utah Utes, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 23 solo tackles, 12 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
What was an uncharacteristic down year for the Utes this past season was not at all that for Eliss, who made his presence known nationally with 12 sacks on the year (seventh in the nation) as well as 37 tackles and one forced fumble. In a year without Cameron Rising, Elliss was the Utes’ best player.
DE, James Madison, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 15.5 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
He finished the season second in the nation in sacks (15.5) and second in tackles for loss (20) before a knee injury cut his exceptional season short in November. Green needed just five sacks to break Elvis Dumervil’s single-season FBS record. He added 7 quarterback hurries, a pick-six and 2 forced fumbles for a ferocious JMU defensive front. Despite missing the final month, Green earned first-team AP All-America honors.
LB, Mississippi State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 10 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Watson ranked ninth nationally in tackles (137) and also had 10 sacks to add. He had five games with double-digit tackles, and among the nation’s top 20 tacklers, his five missed tackles were easily the fewest. He did his best to carry a flawed Bulldogs squad.
RB, Kentucky, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 199 car, 1,452 total yards, 21 total TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The Vanderbilt transfer made one of the season’s biggest early statements, rushing for 280 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-14 blowout of Florida in September, and he finished his year in Lexington with 1,452 total yards (1,129 receiving) and 21 touchdowns (14 receiving).
OT, Missouri, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2.1 pressure allowed pct.
Preseason ranking: NR
The Missouri offensive line took a huge step forward in 2023, and Foster’s nearly flawless play at left tackle was a huge reason why. He allowed just nine pressures, with three holding penalties and only seven blown run blocks, in 13 games. He’s in Mel Kiper’s top 10 for 2024 tackle draft prospects.
QB, New Mexico State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,973 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Along with coach Jerry Kill, Pavia became the face of New Mexico State’s renaissance, which led to consecutive bowl appearances and 18 wins, including a historic road upset of Auburn on Nov. 18. Pavia more than doubled his passing output from last season to finish with 2,973 yards, and doubled his touchdown passes total to 26. He also led the team in rushing touchdowns (7) and was NMSU’s leading rusher in seven games.
DE, Louisville, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 23 solo tackles, 11 sacks, 3 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
Gillotte had 11 sacks this season — ranking No. 9 in the nation — and the most at Louisville since Devonte Fields had 11 in 2015. Gillotte picked up first team All-ACC honors after also notching a career-high 45 tackles, a team-high 14.5 tackles for loss and 3 forced fumbles. Gillotte has already announced he will return to Louisville for his senior season.
LB, Texas, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 47 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 88
Texas’ leading tackler the past two seasons, Ford had 101 total tackles with 10.5 tackles for loss, adding one sack and two interceptions. Ford, a vocal leader at linebacker for the Longhorns, was a first-team All-Big 12 selection and a semifinalist for the Butkus Award.
CB, Virginia Tech, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 25 tackles, 3 INT, 8 PD
Preseason ranking: NR
Strong emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the ACC this past season, with eight pass breakups and three interceptions. Strong led the nation in lowest completion percentage allowed, and was second in yards per target. He has announced he will return to the Hokies for next season.
Edge, North Carolina, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 34 solo tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
Rucker had his best season for the Tar Heels, ranking third in the ACC with 8.5 sacks and had a team-high 61 total tackles. He also forced and recovered a fumble against Clemson, but UNC ended up losing that game. Though the North Carolina defense faltered in the final month of the season, Rucker remained one of the key standouts.
LB, Oklahoma State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 45 solo tackles, 6 sacks, 4 FF
Preseason ranking: 75
After 11.5 sacks as a freshman in 2021, Oliver moved from the defensive line to linebacker in OSU’s new 3-3-5 defense this year, becoming an every-down player with 73 tackles, 6 sacks, 5 passes defensed and 4 forced fumbles, including 4 tackles, 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble in a 39-32 win over Kansas on Oct. 14. He was named to the All-Big 12 second team.
WR, USC, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 1,164 all-purpose yards, 5 total TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Branch’s inaugural season struck the college football world like a lightning bolt when he debuted with 232 all-purpose yards, a 96-yard kickoff return for a score and one receiving touchdown on nine touches in his first game. Even if he — and USC — tapered off as the season progressed, Branch still had a handful of electric moments on his way to 1,164 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns in his freshman year.
LB, Michigan, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 40 solo tackles
Preseason ranking: 56
Colson was a Lott IMPACT Trophy finalist and a second-team All-Big Ten selection. He led Michigan in tackles for a second consecutive season after recording 89 tackles (40 solo) as part of the nation’s second-best defense (239.7 YPG).
RB, Texas State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,331 yards, 10 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The 5-9 transfer from Houston Christian sparked Texas State’s offense in coach G.J. Kinne’s first season. Mahdi was a threat every time he touched the ball, not only averaging 6.0 yards per rush but also 25.6 yards on kickoff returns, with a 100-yard touchdown against Southern Miss. He earned first-team All-Sun Belt honors as an all-purpose star and made several All-America teams as well.
RB, Kansas, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,280 yards, 16 TD
Preseason ranking: 79
In 11 starts this year, Neal ran for 1,280 yards, fourth most in Kansas single-season history, and 16 TDs, second most in a season. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry and had six 100-yard games on the season. Against UCF, he had a 75-yard TD run. The 5-11, 215-pounder has started 31 career games for the Jayhawks.
S, USC, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 42 solo tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD
Preseason ranking: 63
It was not exactly a banner year for USC’s defense, but Bullock — who was an All-American last season — remained a strong presence in the Trojans’ secondary. Bullock finished the year with 61 tackles, 7 pass deflections and 2 interceptions, which was a regression from his stellar 2022 season.
S, Utah, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 60 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Utah’s defense continues to recruit, develop and show off its incredible defensive identity under Kyle Whittingham through guys such as Bishop. As the Utes’ calling card had to be their defense this season, the junior safety did a little bit of everything, racking up 60 tackles, 2 interceptions and 1 forced fumble.
LB, Oklahoma, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 51 solo tackles, 3, sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: 52
Stutsman, the Sooners’ leader on defense, led OU in tackles for the second straight year, with 104 total stops, adding 3 sacks, an interception and 2 forced fumbles despite missing half of the Kansas game and all of the Oklahoma State game, both OU losses. He was named a third-team AP All-American and is bypassing the NFL draft and returning to Oklahoma next season, big news for the Sooners.
QB, Texas, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 3,479 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Ewers made a big leap this season, throwing for 3,479 yards and 22 TDs to six INTs, completing 69% of his throws. He led Texas to a huge win in Tuscaloosa, going 24-of-38 for 349 yards and three TDs in a 34-24 win over then-No. 3 Alabama in a game that went a long way toward getting the Longhorns into the College Football Playoff. But those 452 yards and four TDs in the Big 12 title game against Oklahoma State didn’t hurt, either.
QB, Liberty, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 2,876 yards 32 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
After starting four games in 2022, Salter blossomed under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell, helping Liberty to its first undefeated regular season, a Conference USA title and its first New Year’s Six bowl berth. He earned Conference USA MVP honors after recording 11 games with multiple touchdown passes, four games with multiple rushing touchdowns and seven games with at least 225 passing yards. A Maxwell Award semifinalist, Salter led Conference USA in passing efficiency and passing touchdowns, and ranked second in rushing touchdowns.
RB, Oregon State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,185 yards, 9 TD
Preseason ranking: 95
Martinez nearly helped pull off a late-season upset of title-game participant Washington when he rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns in a 22-20 Huskies win. After rushing for 982 yards in 2022, he went over the 1,000-yard mark this year and has 2,167 yards and 16 scores in his two seasons in Corvallis.
RB, Ohio State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 156 car, 926 yards, 11 TD
Preseason ranking: 33
Even though Henderson missed three games because of injury, he still led Ohio State in rushing with 926 yards and 11 touchdowns. He scored multiple touchdowns in three games (Youngstown State, Western Kentucky and Minnesota) and found pay dirt in eight of the nine games he played for the Buckeyes.
DE, Miami, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 7.5 sacks, 3 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
The ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year made an immediate impact as a true freshman, wreaking havoc from the edge. Bain started the final 10 games of the season, finishing with 44 tackles — the most among Miami defensive linemen. In addition, he was tied for first on the team with 7.5 sacks.
DE, Colorado State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 13 sacks, 2 FF, 56 total tackles
Preseason ranking: NR
The Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year was among the nation’s most consistently disruptive pass-rushers in 2023, leading the league in both sacks (13) and tackles for loss (17), and ranking in the top 10 nationally in averages for both categories. He recorded sacks in each of CSU’s first five games, punctuating the stretch with three against Utah State. Kamara finished his career with 30.5 sacks and 45.5 tackles for loss.
RB, Wisconsin, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 984 yards, 12 TD
Preseason ranking: 31
Allen was third in the Big Ten in rushing (984 yards) and second in touchdowns (12) for Wisconsin. Allen went over the 100-yard mark five times this season, led by a 165-yard effort in a win over Minnesota. He was a second-team All-Big Ten honoree.
CB, Kentucky, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 53 solo tackles, 1 FF, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A sure tackler and a ball hawk, Hairston picked off five passes, broke up six more and nearly scored as many touchdowns (two from pick-sixes) as he allowed (3). His 89% tackle success rate is about as good as you’ll see from a cornerback in space, too.
LB, UTSA, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 14 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
After setting a team record for tackles for loss as a redshirt freshman (18), Moore set his sights on another milestone. He piled up 14 sacks, a UTSA record and a half-sack shy of the AAC record, in the Roadrunners’ first season in the league. Moore earned AAC Defensive Player of the Year honors and finished with 45 tackles, including 17.5 for loss, before entering the transfer portal.
QB, Notre Dame, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,689 yards, 26 TD, 8 INT
Preseason ranking: 25
Hartman transferred to the Irish from Wake Forest for his final season, and it was not without its share of ups and downs. Hartman finished with 2,689 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on the season and some big performances in key wins — including on the road at Duke. But Hartman also struggled in losses to Louisville and Clemson, throwing a combined five interceptions.
OLB, Alabama, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 8 sacks, 3 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Dallas Turner wasn’t the only edge defender on Alabama’s team that wreaked havoc this season. Braswell, a 6-3, 255-pound senior, was second to Turner with eight sacks. His three forced fumbles led the Tide, and he also had a 28-yard interception return for a touchdown against Mississippi State.
With conference play set to open across the country in Week 3, we’re about to get a much firmer grasp on the 2025 college football landscape. Among other things, this weekend will deliver fresh windows into first-year quarterbacks at Georgia and Tennessee when the Bulldogs travel to Neyland Stadium. Elsewhere in the SEC, Florida visits No. 3 LSU with the pair of SEC rivals respectively shouldering very different but equally hefty stakes. Meanwhile, some of college football’s most surprising early-season storylines will continue to play out Saturday with No. 18 South Florida leading the charge as the surging Bulls venture south to No. 5 Miami.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups in this weekend’s pair of high-profile SEC clashes, the programs that have surprised us so far and the top quotes of the past seven days entering Week 3. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Tennessee | Florida-LSU
Teams that have surprised us | Quotes of the Week
What will Georgia and Tennessee need from their new starting QBs?
Georgia: Quarterback Gunner Stockton gets his first SEC road test at Tennessee on Saturday, and the Bulldogs will be looking for him to deliver more in the downfield passing game. Stockton played OK in Georgia’s first two wins over Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay, completing 69% of his pass attempts for 417 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for two scores against the Thundering Herd. His legs weren’t much of a factor in last week’s closer-than-expected win against the Governors. Stockton has taken care of the football and hasn’t put the defense in bad situations, but Georgia needs more explosive plays on offense. He has attempted only 10 passes beyond 10 yards. Georgia went into the transfer portal to get USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, and Colbie Young is back after sitting out most of the 2024 season because of a suspension. Those playmakers have to be more involved on offense, along with tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. If Georgia is going to beat Tennessee for the ninth straight time, Stockton has to be more comfortable letting the ball fly, especially against a secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL) and Rickey Gibson III (arm) because of injuries.
Tennessee: The Volunteers couldn’t have asked for much more from transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar in their first two victories against Syracuse and FCS program East Tennessee State. The former App State starter completed 66.1% of his attempts for 535 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw a 73-yard touchdown to Braylon Staley against the Orange and a 53-yarder to Mike Matthews against the Buccaneers. He might have to do even more against Georgia’s defense, which brings back promising safety KJ Bolden and cornerback Daylen Everette, a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Bulldogs are going to try to stifle Tennessee’s running game and get after Aguilar in the pocket. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have had UT coach Josh Heupel’s number in recent seasons. The Bulldogs haven’t given up explosive plays, a trademark of Heupel’s system. In each of the past three losses to Georgia, the Volunteers’ high-flying offense failed to throw for 200 yards and didn’t have a passing touchdown. — Mark Schlabach
What do Florida and LSU need to capitalize on to win?
Florida: Aside from avoiding penalties, including spitting on a player? The Gators have to play with the emotion and intensity that comes with knowing their season is hanging in the balance after a shocking 18-16 loss to USF. They can do that by setting the tone on defense, which played well for stretches against the Bulls but then gave up 87 yards on eight plays on the final drive. LSU has struggled to run the ball through two games, and frustrations boiled over after a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, in which the Tigers averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In their win over LSU last year, Florida held the Tigers to 2.9 yards per carry. The good news for Florida is it won’t be facing a dual-threat quarterback like Byrum Brown. So if the Gators can limit the LSU backs, they will give themselves a shot. — Andrea Adelson
LSU: The Gators might be more desperate, but the Tigers should be plenty motivated after what happened in Gainesville last fall. LSU’s defense looks like the better of the two units and must cause more distress for DJ Lagway, who averaged 17.4 yards per completion in the 2024 win. The Tigers hurried Lagway nine times but never sacked him. They also let down in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns allowed. LSU’s upgrades on defense and playing at home, where coach Brian Kelly implored that the crowd needs to “live up to our résumé as the toughest place to play in the country,” must become outcome-swinging factors. Garrett Nussmeier is still the superior quarterback, and if LSU can get Caden Durham going — he had 95 rushing yards against Florida last season — the Tigers should prevail. — Adam Rittenberg
Five teams that have surprised us so far
South Florida: It would have been very easy to look at South Florida’s first two games of the season and have both of them — against Boise State and Florida — earmarked as likely losses. Instead, the Bulls went out and started 2-0, making a surprising early case as the best Group of 5 team. The win against Boise State was particularly impressive because of how lopsided it was (34-7). Boise State looked nothing like the team that reached the playoff last season (losing running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, played a significant role in that).
UCLA: After the Bruins finished the 2024 season winning four of their final six games, they brought in transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the offseason. It was reasonable to be optimistic about the direction of the football program. Two games later, UCLA looks like an underdog in all nine of the Big Ten games on its schedule. The Bruins weren’t remotely competitive in their 43-10 loss to Utah, then fell behind 23-0 to UNLV before making it look more respectable in a 30-23 loss last week. Now, UCLA will have to brace for another season of playing in a more than half-empty Rose Bowl.
Kansas State: The only thing between the Wildcats and an 0-3 start, is a last-minute touchdown against FCS North Dakota. Their three-point losses to Iowa State and Army aren’t the end of the world, but this team was expected to compete for the Big 12 title (and still could, to be fair) and hasn’t yet looked the part. Against Army, quarterback Avery Johnson was limited to 172 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. That’s not a formula with which K-State can win.
Florida State: The roller coaster in Tallahassee has been a wild ride. In no other era of college football does it seem plausible for a team to win 19 games in a row, then lose 11 of 13 and then immediately jump back into the top 10. And yet this is the life the Seminoles have lived over the past few seasons. FSU was expected to be better this season, but its convincing win against Alabama in Week 1 might have been the most surprising result of the young season.
Mississippi State: After finishing 2-10 last season with a winless SEC campaign, the Bulldogs didn’t have much momentum. But after an upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State, perhaps this is a team that could be bowling at the end of the season. With games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois the next two weeks, a 4-0 start seems likely before the gauntlet of conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“According to who? Arch said that to you?” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian responded to a question this week as speculation swirled over the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom, so I don’t know what faces you make when you’re doing that.”
“Who has one of those? What does that look like? What does a solidified quarterback look like? What does that look like? I want to know. We play quarterbacks every week. What does a solidified quarterback look like?” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said when asked if he had concerns around the absence of a “solidified quarterback” with third-string quarterback Ryan Staub expected to start ahead of veteran Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis in Week 3. “That could mean something’s up with your roster if it’s clear,” Sanders continued. “Then [when] that clear guy goes down, what’s up with the second one? I like where we are, man. I like what we have. I like what we’re playing with. I like these dice I’m shaking.”
“Just wanted to see if we could,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of the Tigers’ illegal free kick against Kansas in Week 2 that prompted the Big 12 to suspend the responsible officiating crew on Tuesday. “You know, it’s like asking your parents if you can do something that you know they probably shouldn’t let you do. But sometimes they get it wrong.”
“I love Darian to death,” Tulane coach Jon Sumrall said of Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah ahead of the Blue Devils’ Week 3 visit to Tulane. “I’ve said this publicly: if you play one snap, 100 snaps, 1,000 snaps for me, I’ll love you for the rest of my life. I care about him, wish him well, saw him this summer — I’ve got nothing but love for Darian.”
“I’ve talked to many that believe across the country this is the progress we need to make,” LSU’s Brian Kelly said of Ohio State Buckeyes coach Ryan Day’s response to proposed transfer portal changes. “I want to get my roster set. Now, I know there’s probably 12 or 16 teams that might be in the playoffs at that time. I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht. I mean, we got to get this thing set and its best position at this time to allow us to set our rosters moving forward.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.
I’ve circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week’s card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football’s version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we’re still figuring out who’s the real deal and who’s just catfishing us.
No spoilers yet, but let’s just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I’m betting the market hasn’t caught up.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5
The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we’ve seen on the field. It’s early. I know. However, I have doubts.
Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That’s like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.
The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don’t need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that’s Georgia Tech.
Through two games, GT’s rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with four different players already ripping off runs of 27 yards or longer, including quarterback Haynes King.
That rushing strength will be tested, and King’s injury status is something to keep an eye on, but he is expected to play. He’s a quarterback who forces you to defend every blade of grass.
I look back to late last season and think of this as it déjà vu for Clemson’s defense. They saw this exact movie last season with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (166 rushing yards). King has a very similar skill set, except GT’s overall offense is more explosive.
Grab the points. The Yellow Jackets have the sting to pull off the upset.
Bet to make: Oregon -27.5 and Northwestern UNDER 10.5
Oregon is beating up on opponents they’re supposed to, winning by a combined score of 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. The offense has been balanced and explosive, led by Dante Moore‘s efficiency and a backfield that’s averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Now they face a Northwestern defense ranked 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, the same group Tulane gashed for 269 rushing yards in Week 1. This sets up as a trench mismatch, and Oregon has the speed and depth to exploit it.
Northwestern’s secondary is solid, but that was against Western Illinois, and even still, Oregon’s run game is the hammer and Northwestern’s front is the nail. The Ducks also are second in yards gained, meaning they are finishing drives at an elite rate. This is one of those matchups where Oregon can control the script, lean on their ground game and force Northwestern to play catch-up with an offense that lacks any weapons to contend.
Betting against this Oregon offense right now (against soft opponents) feels risky. Now, both of the Ducks games were at home, but I see this unit translating on the road, too, in the right context. I’m not at all ready to call them championship ready, but beating up on the little guys? Yes.
Also worth considering: Northwestern team total UNDER 9.5 points (+105)
Oregon’s defense has allowed only two red zone trips. The Wildcats are averaging only 4.5 yards per pass with five turnovers in two games. Oregon’s defense isn’t flashy, but it forces long drives and eliminates explosive plays, allowing just three gains of 20+ yards so far.
Northwestern will need to string together 10-play drives against a top defense that collapses early downs and limits red-zone access. The Ducks might clip the Wildcats’ whiskers and leave Evanston with a shutout.
Bet to make: New Mexico +15.5
We need to stop pretending UCLA has shown us anything that warrants laying more than two touchdowns.
UCLA’s defense has been a problem, giving up a third-down conversion rate of 70%, fourth worst in the country. That means opponents stay on the field, bleed clock and keep games close.
New Mexico is 130th in rushing yards, but that raw number doesn’t tell the whole story when you look at context. Week 1 was at Michigan, one of the best defensive fronts in the country and Scottre Humphrey had just 10 carries for 33 yards which tanked their early rushing stats.
But in Week 2 against Idaho State, we finally saw the real picture: 18 carries, 141 yards, 7.8 YPC and a 61-yard burst, which is not atypical for Humphrey. In fact, he had nine 100-yard rushing games last year.
So is it enough to buy into New Mexico’s ground game here? Against UCLA, yes. UCLA’s run defense is dead last in success rate allowed and just got gashed for 286 rushing yards by Utah and 148 more by UNLV.
This matchup actually tilts toward Humphrey being a real factor again.
The key is game script. If UCLA jumps ahead by multiple scores early, Humphrey gets neutralized, forcing Jack Layne into obvious passing downs, which is not their strength. But if New Mexico can stay within one score into the second half, Humphrey is the player who keeps them competitive.
This isn’t a volume stat issue, it’s a matchup issue, and against UCLA the door is open. Continue fading the Bruins.
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Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
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