NHL playoff watch: Making sense of the Metro Division
With the trade deadline behind us, we’ve rounded the corner to the final part of the season: the rush to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
As things stand on Monday, the Eastern Conference playoff bracket includes four teams from the Atlantic Division and four from the Metropolitan. The New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes look pretty secure in their postseason slots; Stathletes’ projections agree, with each club having a 99.9% chance of qualifying. Then things get interesting.
The Philadelphia Flyers, with 74 points in 65 games, are in the No. 3 spot, and are a tiebreaker behind the first wild card, then Tampa Bay Lightning (were Philly to fall out of contention for the top three Metro Division spots). Stathletes gives the Flyers a 28.5% chance of sticking in the No. 3 spot, a 5.6% chance of getting the first wild card, and a 19.2% chance of getting the second.
That leads us to the New York Islanders. After Sunday’s win against the Anaheim Ducks, they are tied in points with the Detroit Red Wings for the second wild card (but ahead on points percentage for now), and two points behind Philly in the Metro race. Stathletes likes the Isles’ chances of getting in the No. 3 seed more than the Flyers’, with New York’s at 45.9%. The Isles have a 5.8% chance of the first wild card, and 17.1% of the second.
The Washington Capitals — who subtracted at the deadline, though maybe not as much as some predicted — are three points back of the wild card and five back of the Flyers; their overall playoff chances sit at 41.3%. Finally, the New Jersey Devils, who finished with 112 points in the standings last season, are six back of the wild card and eight back of the Flyers. Their chances of a playoff berth in any fashion are at 11.2%.
Four of those teams will be in action tonight: Devils-Rangers (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network), Capitals-Winnipeg Jets (7:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), and Islanders-Los Angeles Kings (10:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). We won’t have any definitive answers after the games this evening, but the desperation level has certainly ramped up for the clubs currently on the outside looking in.
As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Winnipeg Jets vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Monday’s games
Note: All times Eastern. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets, 7:30 p.m.
New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.
Sunday’s scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Minnesota Wild 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 7, Calgary Flames 2
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Arizona Coyotes 4
New York Islanders 6, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 116
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. STL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 87.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 29.4%
Tragic number: 36
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 4.2%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22
Metropolitan Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 53.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 69.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: 41.3%
Tragic number: 37
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 11.2%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 3.3%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18
Central Division
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. WSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ WPG (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 88.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 8.5%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.7%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 72
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 49
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 89.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 87.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 11.4%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 13.8%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 63
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 2
P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — A blunder that typifies the current state of the New York Yankees, who find themselves in the midst of their second six-game losing streak in three weeks, happened in front of 41,401 fans at Citi Field on Saturday, and almost nobody noticed.
The Yankees were jogging off the field after securing the third out of the fourth inning of their 12-6 loss to the Mets when shortstop Anthony Volpe, as is standard for teams across baseball at the end of innings, threw the ball to right fielder Aaron Judge as he crossed into the infield from right field.
Only Judge wasn’t looking, and the ball nailed him in the head, knocking his sunglasses off and leaving a small cut near his right eye. The wound required a bandage to stop the bleeding, but Judge stayed in the game.
“Confusion,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “I didn’t know what happened initially. [It just] felt like something happened. Of course I was a little concerned.”
Avoiding an injury to the best player in baseball was on the Yankees’ very short list of positives in another sloppy, draining defeat to their crosstown rivals. With the loss, the Yankees, who held a three-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East standings entering June 30, find themselves tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for second place three games behind the Blue Jays heading into Sunday’s Subway Series finale.
The nosedive has been fueled by messy defense and a depleted pitching staff that has encountered a wall.
“It’s been a terrible week,” said Boone, who before the game announced starter Clarke Schmidt will likely undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.
For the second straight day, the Mets capitalized on mistakes and cracked timely home runs. After slugging three homers in Friday’s series opener, the Mets hit three more Saturday — a grand slam in the first inning from Brandon Nimmo to take a 4-0 lead and two home runs from Pete Alonso to widen the gap.
Nimmo’s blast — his second grand slam in four days — came after Yankees left fielder Jasson Dominguez misplayed a ball hit by the Mets’ leadoff hitter in the first inning. On Friday, he misread Nimmo’s line drive and watched it sail over his head for a double. On Saturday, he was slow to react to Starling Marte’s flyball in the left-center field gap and braked without catching or stopping it, allowing Marte to advance to second for a double. Yankees starter Carlos Rodon then walked two batters to load the bases for Nimmo, who yanked a mistake, a 1-2 slider over the wall.
“That slider probably needs to be down,” said Rodon, who allowed seven runs (six earned) over five innings. “A lot of misses today and they punished them.”
Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s throwing woes at third base — a position the Yankees have asked him to play to accommodate DJ LeMahieu at second base — continued in the second inning when he fielded Tyrone Taylor’s groundball and sailed a toss over first baseman Cody Bellinger’s head. Taylor was given second base and scored moments later on Marte’s RBI single.
The Yankees were charged with their second error in the Mets’ four-run seventh inning when center fielder Trent Grisham charged Francisco Lindor’s single up the middle and had it bounce off the heel of his glove.
The mistake allowed a run to score from second base without a throw, extending the Mets lead back to three runs after the Yankees had chipped their deficit, and allowed a heads-up Lindor to advance to second base. Lindor later scored on Alonso’s second home run, a three-run blast off left-hander Jayvien Sandridge in the pitcher’s major league debut.
“Just got to play better,” Judge said. “That’s what it comes down to. It’s fundamentals. Making a routine play, routine. It’s just the little things. That’s what it kind of comes down to. But every good team goes through a couple bumps in the road.”
This six-game losing skid has looked very different from the Yankees’ first. That rough patch, consisting of losses to the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels, was propelled by offensive troubles. The Yankees scored six runs in the six games and gave up just 16. This time, run prevention is the issue; the Yankees have scored 34 runs and surrendered 54 in four games against the Blue Jays in Toronto and two in Queens.
“The offense is starting to swing the bat, put some runs on the board,” Boone said. “The pitching, which has kind of carried us a lot this season, has really, really struggled this week. We haven’t caught the ball as well as I think we should.
“So, look, when you live it and you’re going through it, it sucks, it hurts. But you got to be able to handle it. You got to be able to deal with it. You got to be able to weather it and come out of this and grow.”
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — The New York Yankees, digging for options to bolster their infield, have signed third baseman Jeimer Candelario to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the affiliate announced Saturday.
Candelario, 31, was released by the Cincinnati Reds on June 23, halfway through a three-year, $45 million contract he signed before the start of last season. The decision was made after Candelario posted a .707 OPS in 2024 and batted .113 with a .410 OPS in 22 games for the Reds before going on the injured list in April with a back injury.
The performance was poor enough for Cincinnati to cut him in a move that Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall described as a sunk cost.
For the Yankees, signing Candelario is a low-cost flier on a player who recorded an .807 OPS just two seasons ago as they seek to find a third baseman to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second base, his natural position.
Candelario is the second veteran infielder the Yankees have signed to a minor league contract in the past three days; they agreed to terms with Nicky Lopez on Thursday.
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