MLB Rank 2024: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
Opening Day is almost here, which means it’s time to ask the question that’s on everyone’s mind: Who will be the best player of the 2024 MLB season?
To create our annual MLB Rank list of the top 100 players in the sport, we presented a panel of ESPN baseball experts with pairings upon pairings of the biggest names in the game and asked them which player will be better in 2024.
However, that raises the question of how to compare players who have vastly different but still important roles across the sport. How do you compare the top starting pitchers to the best sluggers in the game? What about players who don’t have much major league experience? And where do baseball’s best relievers land? It seems impossible to pit these stars against one another, but we did it — and one player came out on top.
Our list features Cy Young Award winners, MVPs, veterans building Hall of Fame résumés and young megastars who could dominate MLB for years to come. But who’s No. 1? And where does the best player on your team rank?
ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez, Dave Schoenfield, Jesse Rogers and Brad Doolittle broke down why each player is ranked where they are and what to expect from them in the upcoming season.
Jump to team’s top-ranked player:
American League
BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE | DET
HOU | KC | LAA | MIN | NYY
SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
(No top 100 players: OAK)
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL
(No top 100 players: COL, WSH)
More: Snubs, surprises
Next top 100 player for every team | MLB players weigh in on top 100
Stolen bases can take a significant toll on a player’s body, and 73 is a lot. Which begs the question: Would the Braves consider slightly reigning in Acuña, who’s oh-so-valuable everywhere else, in the wake of his knee scare this spring? “Nah,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. At some point, Acuña will slow down on his own. But right now, Snitker said, “You’ve got to turn a kid like that loose.”
The Braves will do just that with Acuña, the reigning MVP after becoming the first 40-70 player in baseball history. The 2023 season saw Acuña pick up where he left off in 2019 — before the COVID-shortened season of 2020, the torn ACL of 2021 and the struggles coming off it in 2022 made us forget this might be the game’s most dynamic player. Except he did it while striking out less than half the time, triggering an absurd .337/.416/.596 slash line. He was just as athletic and far more refined than when he first burst onto the scene four years earlier — and he’s at a point in his life where he might still be getting better.
Season prediction: Another run at MVP, another season as a catalyst atop the Braves’ prolific offense and, dare we say, the first 50-50 season ever. — Gonzalez
Everything we thought about Judge’s role in the Yankees’ success was reinforced in 2023. On the day he slammed his right foot into the bullpen gate in Dodger Stadium, the team’s record was 35-25. The rest of the season — with Judge missing extensive time — the Yankees were 47-55. The absence of one superstar is typically more meaningful in the NFL, with quarterbacks, or in the NBA. It isn’t supposed to happen in baseball. But it did with Judge, who has evolved into a staggering combination of power, on-base production, baserunning and defense. He played half his games on a bum big toe last season and finished with an adjusted OPS+ of 175.
Season prediction: An old saying is that the best lineup protection comes from in front of a hitter, because with runners on base, pitchers are more compelled to work in the strike zone. Now Judge has Juan Soto in front of him. He will have a monster year. — Olney
3. Juan Soto, RF, New York Yankees
Soto’s defense may prevent him from ever being considered the best player in the game, but he’s certainly in the running for best hitter. Indeed, since 2020 he ranks first in the majors in batting runs created, ahead of Judge and Freddie Freeman. He was sixth in the category last season after hitting .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs and 132 walks for the Padres. Now, following the big trade to the Yankees, comes the pressures of performing in pinstripes and playing for a huge contract in free agency, which he’ll enter after this season. While he did struggle those first two months with the Padres in 2022, consider this: He hit .307/.422/.604 with 23 home runs on the road in 2023. Now he gets to play his home games at Yankee Stadium. His numbers may explode in 2024, putting an MVP trophy in his sights.
Season prediction: His first 40-homer season, the best OBP in the majors, the most runs scored in the majors (batting in front of Judge will help there) … and the American League MVP Award. — Schoenfield
Over the last half-century, the list of players with more seasons of 8.0-plus wins above replacement than Betts is as follows: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Wade Boggs, Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt. That’s it.
The same seven are the only ones ahead of him in 6.0-plus WAR seasons, too. The company Betts keeps is simple: the elite of the elite — first-ballot Hall of Fame sorts.
At 31, Betts remains in his prime, and he was recently named the Dodgers’ shortstop — a move manager Dave Roberts called “permanent, for now” — after splitting time at second, shortstop and right field last year. He does everything right: hit for average (.307) and power (39 home runs), get on base (.408 OBP), run well (14 stolen bases) and play great defense. He is as solid and steady as they come, and while his OPS may not again approach 1.000, hitting in front of two other players in the top 10 of this list can’t hurt.
Season prediction: A .300/.400/.500 slash line — only five players booked one last year — and the most runs scored for a player since the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles. (The record: Freeman’s 132 last year.) — Passan
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Father Time is undefeated but at some point, even Freeman has to stop getting better. That point doesn’t seem to be looming any time soon, not after Freeman’s age-33 season was arguably his best campaign yet. Since 2016, there have been 35 instances in which a qualifying batter has put up a coveted .300/.400/.500 stat line. Only seven hitters have done it more than once. Five of the seven in that group have done it twice, while Mike Trout has done it three times. Freeman has done it five times.
A metronomic craftsman, Freeman is now 14 years into his journey to Cooperstown. His first seven seasons featured a .288/.373/.484 slash line with 949 hits, 138 homers and 19 steals. The past seven have seen a .313/.402/.541 line with 1,165 hits, 183 homers and 70 steals. How is that possible?
Season prediction: More of the same — .300/.400/.500 line, just to start, and another 190 to 200 hits off his countdown to 3,000. He’s demonstrated no reason to think that, at 34, he’s about to slow down. — Doolittle
When healthy, Seager is as dangerous a hitter as they come. Just ask the Diamondbacks, who saw firsthand what the veteran is capable of in the World Series last year when he posted a 1.137 OPS in five games. The result was a championship for Texas and MVP honors for Seager. But injuries have been part and parcel of his career to this point, and his spring has been slowed down by his recovery from a hernia surgery he underwent in January. It may not impact his regular season but hitters are creatures of routine, so it might take him a bit to get going. When he does, watch out. The Rangers are looking for a repeat and have the right guy to lead them there — a now two-time World Series MVP.
Season prediction: Provided he’s healthy for most of the year, Seager will set a career mark in walks in 2024, reminding teams he’s not the person to pitch to in clutch situations. His previous high was just 67 in 2017. He’ll reach 70 this year. — Rogers
7. Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees
Don’t blame Cole for the Yankees missing the postseason last year for the first time since 2016, as he went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA, leading the AL in ERA, adjusted ERA, innings, pitching WAR (by more than two wins), WHIP and lowest batting average allowed. He was rewarded with his first Cy Young Award after twice previously finishing second. In his four seasons with the Yankees, only Zack Wheeler tops Cole in Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR) among pitchers, so it’s been a sound investment in a pitcher who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His durability, elite velocity and excellent command make him the top pitcher on our board.
Season prediction: As good as he was in 2023, Cole did suffer a significant decline in whiff rate (from the 92nd percentile in 2022 to the 48th percentile in 2023). It didn’t hurt him last season, but let’s see about 2024. I wonder if his home runs spike back up a bit like they did in 2022. That means he could still be an ace — just maybe not a Cy Young winner. — Schoenfield
Since Alvarez entered the majors in 2019, only Trout and Judge have a higher OPS+ (169 for both; Alvarez is at 165). Over the past three seasons, Alvarez has averaged 42 homers, 123 RBIs and 109 runs per 162 games. He is the complete package at the dish. And he does it when the stakes are at their highest, as evidenced by his ridiculous 1.487 playoff OPS last October. The problem for Alvarez has been injuries that have seen his total games played over these past three stellar seasons drop from 144 to 135 to 114. That’s increasingly become the key category for him and the Astros because if he plays, he hits — and virtually no one does it better.
Season prediction: Alvarez is entering his age-27 season which, historically, has been the most common career campaign for a hitter. If Alvarez can get 140 or more games, he’ll make a run at 50 homers and fiercely contend for AL MVP honors. — Doolittle
9. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Dodgers
Has a full-time, non-pitching DH ever won an MVP? Nope. Not yet, at least. But Ohtani, the unanimous AL MVP as a two-way player in 2021 and 2023, is somehow looking like the most dangerous version of himself offensively in the wake of right elbow surgery. It took only about a week of workouts for the Dodgers’ $700 million megastar to wow new teammates and coaches with both his power and his approach. And when the exhibition games began, all Ohtani seemed to do was meet the baseball with his barrel.
Ohtani’s OPS jumped 191 points from 2022 to 2023, all the way up to a major league-leading 1.066. He added 44 homers and drove in 95 runs for an Angels team that oftentimes gave him very little support. Now he’ll hit between Betts and Freeman, two perennial MVPs in their own right, and he won’t have to think about pitching until 2025. Is it possible for Ohtani to reach yet another level offensively? Yep.
Season prediction: Ohtani won’t win his third MVP, but he’ll run away with his third Silver Slugger while hitting over .300 for a second straight year and driving in a career-high 120 runs. He’ll flirt with 50 homers, too. — Gonzalez
Carroll entered 2023 as the Rookie of the Year favorite in the National League and not only lived up to expectations but exceeded them, with a spectacular, exciting season that showcased blazing speed and surprising pop that will make him one of the top faces of the game over the next decade. He stole 54 bases in 59 attempts, the second-best percentage ever for a player with at least 50 steals. With 25 home runs, he became the ninth player to go 25/50 in the same season. He finished fifth in the MVP voting — all this at age 22, after playing just 142 games in the minors due to COVID-19 and an injury that wiped out his 2021 season. With more experience, he might add some power against left-handed pitchers and improve his plate discipline … and climb even higher on this ranking.
Season prediction: A 30/60 season is asking a lot, but that’s not far from what he did last year. How about 30/60/.300 with a second straight All-Star start and top-five MVP finish. — Schoenfield
3:18
Which player in the MLB Top 10 is most surprising?
Jeff Passan and Buster Olney evaluate ESPN’s Top 10 MLB player rankings for the 2024 season.
A running debate last season was whether it was possible that Rutschman had ascended to the league’s No. 1 catcher in his first year in the majors, surpassing someone so respected as J.T. Realmuto. But he put all that conversation to rest last year, as he led the Orioles pitching staff to the best record in the AL, while posting excellent numbers at the plate — 84 runs scored, 20 homers and a .374 on-base percentage in a staggering 588 at-bats, which is more at-bats than Yadier Molina had in any season in his career. Rutschman played 108 games at catcher and another 46 at DH in 2023.
Season prediction: Eleven of his 20 homers came in games in which he served as a DH — maybe a coincidence, or maybe a reflection of his devotion to pitchers on the days he was behind the plate. His offensive production will continue to grow. — Olney
12. Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
In some ways, Olson can’t win. Over two seasons with Atlanta, he’s played in all 324 games. He’s hit 88 homers, including a whopping 54 in 2023, and driven in 242. While he’s won over Braves fans and been a worthy successor to Freeman at first, he still managed to only finish fourth in the NL MVP balloting last year despite all those home runs and league-leading totals in RBIs (139) and slugging (.604). Among those he finished behind were Freeman and teammate Acuña. The voters were right, too, which means that Olson’s historic output didn’t even mark him as the best player on his own team. Sometimes life is all about timing. Nevertheless, the Olson era in Atlanta is going just fine.
Season prediction: Olson’s career has always been an every-other-year pattern, with tremendous peaks followed by moderate regressions. If the pattern keeps up, this is a regression year, but at the same time, Olson has become a more consistent, less pull-heavy hitter. What we do know is that he will show up — he’s missed just six games over the past four seasons, somehow defeating the load-management era in professional sports. — Doolittle
Bryce Harper 2.0 is proving to be just as good — if not better — than the original version. Now at first base and well removed from Tommy John surgery, Harper could be primed for another MVP season. Just as interesting is his connection to Philadelphia. With all due respect to the now retired Jason Kelce of the Eagles or Joel Embiid of the 76ers, Harper is arguably the face of Philadelphia sports. He embodies the city’s raucous fan base and undoubtedly helped anoint Citizens Bank Park as one of the toughest, if not the toughest, places to play for opponents in the major league. Harper has made the Phillies one of the elite and more interesting teams in baseball.
Season prediction: Harper will produce his third 1.000 OPS season, putting him in the running for MVP. He reached .900 last year while dealing with his elbow ailment. He’ll be even better this year and more comfortable at first base to boot. — Rogers
One of Tatis’ closest friends in the sport is Acuña. This offseason, Tatis followed the path Acuña laid out the year before en route to an MVP award: He trained under Fernando Tatis Sr. and played some winter ball in order to implement some offensive adjustments in game environments — “like a samurai getting ready for war,” as he put it. Tatis won a Platinum Glove while converting to right field on a full-time basis in 2023, an amazing feat unto itself. But he didn’t feel quite right offensively — understandable given that he sat out the entire 2022 season with a wrist injury and a PED suspension. Now, Tatis said, “My confidence is through the roof.” With Soto gone, the Padres need his performance to match that.
Season prediction: Tatis finished third in NL MVP voting while constantly dealing with a shoulder subluxation and playing in only 130 games in 2023. This year, while hitting leadoff full time, he’ll follow Acuña’s path all the way to the end and actually win it. — Gonzalez
All Strider did in his first full season as a starter was win 20 games and post a higher single-season strikeout rate than Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Chris Sale or Max Scherzer ever did. Strider’s stuff is otherworldly: a fastball that sits around 98 mph and arguably the best slider in the game. And lest you fear that two-pitch pitchers are meant for the bullpen, Strider has proved that his two (and the occasional changeup to left-handed hitters) are plenty enough to dominate.
Now comes the part where the 25-year-old trims his home runs allowed (22 in 186⅔ innings last year), gets a little luckier (he had a .316 average on balls in play) and evolves into the superstar everyone believes he’s bound to be.
Season prediction: 22-6, 2.41 ERA and the most strikeouts for an NL pitcher since Johnson punched out 334 in 2002. — Passan
Witt’s first half in 2023 was … fine. It still left Royals fans wondering when their ballyhooed shortstop would morph into the superstar they had been told was coming. As it turns out, they only had to wait out the All-Star break, after which Witt was one of baseball’s best players. Beginning with a six-RBI outburst on July 28, Witt finished the season with a .967 OPS over his last 56 games. Extrapolating his production during that stretch to 162 games: 41 homers, 130 RBIs, 133 runs and 61 stolen bases. Over the winter, the Royals inked Witt to an 11-year extension. He needs plenty of help but the cornerstone of Kansas City baseball is in place.
Season prediction: In the minors, it took Witt some time to adapt to a new level, but when he conquered it, he did so in resounding fashion. He hasn’t yet mastered the major leagues — a 56-game sample is still just that — but expect a top-10 MVP finish in 2024. — Doolittle
By some measures, 2023 was a typical year for Ramirez. He was still an All-Star and finished 10th in MVP voting, but his OPS+ dropped by 17 points from the previous season. It doesn’t help that he has little protection in a weak Guardians lineup; that’s undoubtedly part of the reason he’s led the league in intentional walks in each of the past two years.
But Ramirez isn’t one to lament what Cleveland doesn’t have. He just makes the most of his situation, usually attacking the one good pitch he does get per at-bat. And he continues to be a threat on the bases, stealing at least 20 in five of the past six seasons. An .800 OPS or better is a given for Ramirez — and should be again this year.
Season prediction: He won’t break Bonds’ record of 120 intentional walks in one season, achieved in 2004, but Ramirez will lead the league in them once again. And he’ll set another career high for himself after earning 22 IBB last year. — Rogers
J-Rod had a 30-30 season in 2023 at age 22. He topped 100 runs and 100 RBIs in an offense that didn’t have much support around him. He’s an outstanding defender and plays with as much flair and energy as anybody in the game — and even finished fourth in the MVP voting. Yet, it’s fair to say — and Rodriguez himself would agree — that there’s the potential for more. It felt like much of his production came in one month, when he hit .429 in August and had a record-setting stretch of 17 hits in four games. In four other months, his OPS was below .800. He needs more consistency and to cut down on the strikeouts while improving his chase rate (eighth percentile). If that happens, watch out.
Season prediction: This ranking feels fair. Indeed, Rodriguez’s raw OPS fell 35 points from his rookie season as his chase rate worsened from 2022. The talent is immense and he’s obviously already a great player. Let’s predict that the experience kicks in and J-Rod goes 40-40 … which, in an Ohtani-less AL, makes him an MVP candidate. — Schoenfield
Trout got uncommonly emotional while addressing the media in September, in the wake of yet another injury-plagued season. It wasn’t long ago that he was on a path to becoming possibly the greatest player in baseball history. Then came the COVID-19-shortened season of 2020, which was followed by a three-year stretch in which he played in fewer than half of the Angels’ games while dealing with injuries to his calf, back and hand. Trout has confronted persistent trade rumors by continually pledging loyalty to the hapless Angels, but the reality is he’ll be 33 in August, is eight years removed from playing a full season and has nearly $250 million remaining on his contract. His market is quite limited. Trout, in short, needs to prove himself again. It’s amazing to even utter that sentence, but that’s the reality. Time can be cruel, even to those who once seemed superhuman.
Season prediction: One benefit of Ohtani being gone is that it frees up DH days for Trout. The Angels will take advantage of that. And with less demand on his body, Trout will prove once again that he is an offensive force. He’ll win his 10th Silver Slugger if Judge spends more time in an outfield corner. — Gonzalez
20. Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Turner’s first year in Philadelphia was underwhelming until a standing ovation from the Philly faithful in early August seemingly picked up his spirits — and his game. No one can say for sure if that made the difference, but from that point on, he hit .339 with a 1.069 OPS and nine stolen bases. That was the version of Turner the Phillies signed for $300 million and is likely to show up again this year. His combination of speed and power is still a rarity in the game despite the increase in stolen bases around the league. And though much of the year wasn’t to his liking, he still managed 26 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
Season prediction: Turner was caught stealing during the playoffs but went the entire regular season without that happening, going 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts. He will do it again in 2024 — at least 30 steals without getting caught. He’s that good, and smart, on the base paths. — Rogers
21. Corbin Burnes, SP, Baltimore Orioles
He’s No. 21 overall, but maybe more importantly, Burnes ranks No. 3 among pitchers — only Cole and Strider are ahead of him. The conditions seem to be perfect for him to contend for his second Cy Young Award and a huge payday in free agency next winter: After being traded by Milwaukee to Baltimore, he’ll be working with Rutschman – already regarded as a high-end catcher. He’ll be surrounded by an excellent cast of position players who will support him offensively and defensively. Plus, the shape of Camden Yards, with the space gashed into left field, should serve him well. Not that he needs a lot of help. Burnes held opponents to a .200 batting average last season and had a 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.
Season prediction: He will have a strong season and be the greatest threat to Cy Young Award incumbent Cole for those honors. — Olney
22. Zack Wheeler, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler, who agreed to a new three-year, $126 extension that runs through 2027, leads all pitchers in bWAR and fWAR since 2020. That certainly gives him a strong case as the best starter in the game, even if he’s only fourth on our list — and especially if you want to give him extra credit for his excellent postseason performances during the past two years.
His ERA was a tad high last year at 3.61, although his peripheral stats were still excellent. His game starts with a 96-mph four-seamer that grades out as one of the best fastballs in the game, especially when he mixes it with a sinker that he throws almost exclusively to right-handed batters that runs in on their hands; he threw the two fastballs more than 60% of the time. Then he adds a cutter, sweeper and curveball, all thrown between 10% and 15% of the time. He turns 34 in May, so maybe there’s some age-related risk with the extension, but he’s been durable since he missed two full seasons earlier in his career with Tommy John surgery.
Season prediction: Strider may be the Cy Young favorite in the NL due to his more impressive strikeout rates, but the Braves may play it conservative in his innings. That opens the door for Wheeler, who will take home the trophy. — Schoenfield
As the 2023 White Sox sank, Robert soared. His 5.0 bWAR wasn’t just the most on the team, it was more than five times higher than any other ChiSox hitter who finished the season with the club.
More than anything, Robert stayed on the field, logging 145 games, 47 more than his previous high. And he also does the big things — 38 homers, 20 steals and highlight-reel production in center field. Even as he broke out last year, his strikeouts spiked and his walk rate only eked forward. He turns 27 in August, so this is probably who he is, which isn’t a bad thing.
Season prediction: If Roberts can mostly avoid the IL as he did in 2023, he’ll lead the White Sox in bWAR again and top 30 homers. He’ll also be popular on the trade rumor mill. — Doolittle
If the best ability is availability, there is no one in baseball more able than Semien. Over the past six seasons, he has played 859 of the 870 games his teams have played — tops in MLB with Freeman and 19 more than the third-highest total. These aren’t empty games, of course. Semien hits for power (25-plus home runs in each of his past four seasons), gets on base and is among the best defensive second basemen in baseball.
In two of the past three seasons, Semien has finished third in AL MVP voting. It’s easy to take for granted his consistency and across-the-board excellence, but with his being at the front of this devastating Rangers lineup, he’s primed to remain a top 25 player.
Season prediction: Semien becomes the first AL player to lead the league in runs outright for consecutive seasons since Trout went back-to-back-to-back from 2012 to 2014. He’ll surpass the 30-homer mark, too, joining four other teammates who do the same. — Passan
Machado was the MVP runner-up in 2022, and the Padres went all the way to the NLCS. His numbers dropped off in 2023, and the Padres flamed out spectacularly. And while it would be unfair to pin the blame squarely on Machado’s shoulders, it’s fairly obvious he sets the tone and will have to be elite again if the Padres hope to return to the postseason. Better health would certainly help. Machado, one of the sport’s most durable players, played through a balky right elbow in 2023 and underwent surgery in October to address it. He spent the ensuing offseason rehabbing with the Padres’ doctors in San Diego and seems on track to have as close to a normal season as one might reasonably expect.
Season prediction: Machado will get some DH days early, but eventually he’ll settle into what he always is — a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who will hit about 30 home runs, drive in around 100, keep his OPS in the .800 range and play in 150-some-odd games. At 31, he’s still in his prime. — Gonzalez
26. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
The last holdover from the Astros’ days in the NL, the extension Altuve signed in February means he’s now destined to join Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell as one-team Houston Hall of Famers. At a position where players once tended to flame out early, Altuve’s skill set hasn’t tailed off. His 157 OPS+ over the past two seasons is at peak level and his .390 OBP during that time frame means he’s still among baseball’s top leadoff hitters. However, his defensive metrics have started to slide, and he needs to keep mashing to hold up his end of the value bargain. If he keeps up his per season pace of the last half-decade, Altuve could challenge the 3,000-hit barrier as he nears the end of his contract.
Season prediction: Altuve missed a career-high 72 games in 2023 but his injuries seem more random than chronic. If he can bounce back to his previous 140ish game level, expect him to challenge his career-best 31 homers and return to the All-Star game. — Doolittle
Lindor’s first season with the Mets in 2021 was a mess — an injury, a .230 batting average, the infamous thumbs-down gesture to the fans — but he’s rebounded with two exemplary seasons since. He’s played 160 and 161 games, respectively, and finished ninth in the MVP voting both years while averaging 28 home runs, 102 RBIs and 103 runs. His defense, while perhaps not quite what it was with Cleveland, remains above average. In part because he’s played nearly every game, he’s seventh among position players in WAR over those two seasons.
Now 30, Lindor is entering the legacy stage of his career. Through age 29, he ranks ninth among shortstops in career WAR; seven of those ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame, all except Alex Rodriguez (PEDs) and Jim Fregosi (back problems in his 30s). Lindor is on a Hall of Fame trajectory with a reasonable chance of finishing as one of the 10 greatest shortstops. I hope Mets fans appreciate what they have.
Season prediction: Mr. Smile has been Mr. Consistent the past two years, so I’ll go with more of the same: 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, 100 runs and a ninth-place finish in the MVP voting. — Schoenfield
28. Kyle Tucker, RF, Houston Astros
Coming off another outstanding year, Tucker continues to move up the list of top players in MLB. And he seems to be doing it quietly, as teammates such as Alvarez and Altuve tend to get more of the attention. One of Tucker’s specialties is hitting left-handed pitching — he has a career .846 OPS against them, including a whopping .934 mark last season. He should be in line for a huge pay day as he moves through the arbitration system toward free agency in two years. The Astros are likely to lock him up before he hits the market, as there are no signs of him slowing down. He might be getting better, in fact.
Season prediction: After finishing 20th in MVP voting in 2021, Tucker moved up five spots the next season then 10 more last year, when he finished fifth. He’ll finish in the top five again in 2024 — and if he makes a similar leap as he has in past years, it could mean taking home top honors. Now that Ohtani is in the NL, Tucker could do it. — Rogers
Riley, heading into his age-27 season, is quickly making a case as the game’s best third baseman. Among others at his position over the past three years, he ranks first in OPS (.878), first in home runs (108), second in weighted runs created plus (135) and second in FanGraphs WAR (15.6). His 2023 season offered examples of how he might still be getting better, specifically on defense (from minus-six outs above average in 2022 to neutral in 2023) and with his swing decisions (his chase rate finished at a career-low 27.4%). Riley was also one of the game’s best performers down the stretch last year, slashing .300/.368/.601 after the All-Star break. Maybe that’s just who he is now.
Season prediction: Riley has come close, but he has yet to finish within the top five in MVP voting. This is the year he does it. — Gonzalez
Since he broke out at age 22 in 2019, Devers has been a metronome of production over his four full seasons. That 2019 season looks a little better superficially, but that’s only because that was the year when offense was up across the league. His OPS+ figures, not including 2020, are 132, 134, 141 and 126, respectively.
His defense isn’t great, he’s slow and you’d like a few more walks or hits to boost his OBP, but he leads the majors in extra-base hits since 2019 — two more than Freeman. The 11-year extension he signed last year means he’ll continue to anchor the Boston lineup for the next decade.
Season prediction: Does Devers have another level? He hits the ball as consistently hard as anyone — 98th percentile in hard-hit rate — but his poor swing decisions also lead to too much weak contact. The tools are there for a .300, 40-homer season, but he’s pretty much established that this is who is: a very good hitter and, if not quite a superstar, a top-10 MVP type of player. — Schoenfield
31. Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves
Looking at splits before and after the All-Star break can be arbitrary, but in Fried’s case his 2023 results in this subdivision reflect pre- and post-injury performance. The conclusion: He was just as good after his forearm strain as he was before it. But the forearm was just one malady that confronted Fried last season, including an ill-timed blister problem late in the campaign. Over the past four seasons, his 2.66 ERA ranks fourth among starters (minimum 100 innings). His career winning percentage (62-26, .705) ranks sixth in baseball history (minimum 80 decisions). In other words, Fried is almost a great pitcher. The only category holding him back is a year-by-year innings count that has been up and down, even as his pro rata performance is steady as a rock.
Season prediction: Now that Fried is 30 years old, it’s time for him to post one of those 190-to-200 inning campaigns. Given his perpetually low ERA and the strength of the team behind him, that probably would mean 20-plus wins and his first Cy Young award. — Doolittle
32. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Rival evaluators have noted how tough Alonso can be on himself, and that when he’s in a rough patch, he seemingly beats himself up between pitches and plate appearances. This season will be a test of that, with his foray into free agency looming ahead. His negotiations with the Mets have been set aside and he needs a big year following a season in which he mashed 46 homers but also hit .217/.318/.504. He’s the Mets’ biggest power source, but he will play under a ton of pressure this year.
Season prediction: At every stage in his baseball life, Alonso has thrived in the face of doubts; he turns that internal intensity into fuel. He’ll have a big year, forcing the Mets’ leadership to make a big, expensive decision. — Olney
If the Blue Jays have high hopes for their season, they need Bichette (not to mention Vlad Guerrero Jr.) to be every bit the All-Star he was last season — or perhaps even better. It’s possible considering how he crushes fastballs. Last year was his best yet against heat — he reached base 33% of the time when he made contact off that pitch. He doesn’t always, as he struck out 115 times in 2023, but that was down from each of the previous two seasons. With two more years until free agency, the time is now for Bichette to lead Toronto deeper into the postseason. Getting there will be a challenge as well but the Jays shortstop has met many of them already in his young career.
Season prediction: If healthy, Bichette will have 200 hits for the first time. He’ll do it by reducing his strikeout total again this year, putting the ball in play just enough to reach that coveted number. — Rogers
Perhaps this is a touch high for the 31-year-old, but the way he seared himself into people’s minds in October makes it difficult to argue. Garcia put on one of the great ALCS shows of all time, driving in 15 runs over seven games and punctuating the series with a pair of home runs and five RBIs in Texas’ Game 7 victory over Houston. Garcia isn’t a perfect player. He strikes out too much (175 times in 632 plate appearances last year) and his right-field defense can be inconsistent. But the thunder in his bat is very, very real, and very few players can conjure an October performance such as his when the stakes are at their highest.
4:06
Olney, Passan discuss what they would change on ESPN’s 2024 MLB Rank
Buster Olney and Jeff Passan break down the 2024 MLB Rank list and what changes they would make.
Season prediction: .244/.314/.485 with 33 home runs and 113 RBIs — in line with what he’s done over his three full seasons with the Rangers. — Passan
Guerrero graces the cover of MLB The Show this year, but he’s three years removed from putting up video-game numbers. He would’ve won the MVP in 2021 if not for some pitching-hitting phenomenon named Ohtani. Guerrero belted a major league-leading 48 home runs and slashed .311/.401/.601 that year. His slash line over the ensuing two seasons dropped to .269/.342/.462 — still really good, just not elite. Guerrero blamed at least some of last year’s struggles to playing through ailments in his right knee and left wrist. His underlying numbers in 2023 were actually pretty close to what they were in 2021. The biggest issue, it seems, was that he didn’t do enough damage on pitches within his sweet spot — the upper third of the strike zone.
Season prediction: Guerrero continues to make contact at a high level and ranks within the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity. Those are good signs, even for someone who doesn’t elevate pitches at an ideal rate. He’ll have an OPS in the .900s in 2024 — his penultimate season before free agency. — Gonzalez
Albies comes in as our fourth-highest second baseman behind Betts, Semien and Altuve. Is he the 36th-best player in baseball? That might be stretching things a bit, but these lists tend to reward the bat-first players and Albies is coming off his best offensive season (124 OPS+) and is in his prime at 27 years old. During his four full seasons in the majors, he has averaged 28 home runs, 102 runs and 93 RBIs while reaching 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in 2021 and 2023 (sandwiched around an injury in 2022). There aren’t many second basemen now — or ever — putting up those kinds of power numbers.
Season prediction: Albies is a pretty remarkable hitter given his below-average hard-hit rates and an extremely high chase rate. That’s usually a bad combo, but he makes a lot of contact and barrels up enough baseballs at the perfect launch angle to get to 30 home runs. I don’t know if he’ll hit .280 again, but the power numbers should remain intact. — Schoenfield
Isn’t it nice when someone actually lives up to the hype? Henderson proved to be everything the prospect gurus said he would be, posting a 6.2 bWAR while becoming a unanimous pick for AL Rookie of the Year in 2023. The scary part: He can be way better. He posted a .595 OPS against lefties, one obvious area for improvement. Also, he was too passive early in the season, then feasted when he developed an aggressive approach. He took a hit in OBP when he became more proactive, but when he figures out his ideal blend of patience and aggression, look out. The only question is at which position will Henderson deploy his plus glove? A young infielder who can hold down shortstop is a valuable commodity but the Orioles are rich in potentially elite young infielders. No worries: He will thrive at the hot corner, second base, shortstop, or a combination of all the above.
Season prediction: Henderson could ascend to the stratosphere at any point, but in the short term, he should focus on improving his numbers against lefties while honing his pitch recognition. Fewer chases, a little more contact, some platoon balancing and we’re talking about an MVP run sooner rather than later. — Doolittle
38. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks will be weary of the long and strenuous 2023 campaign they endured last season and Gallen should be at the top of their list of players to watch after he threw a whopping 243 innings, including the playoffs. In doing so, he established himself as a true ace; a workhorse who can navigate an outing even without his best stuff. He proved that several times in October, particularly when it seemed like he was running out of gas. When he looks back at last season, he can point to an All-Star berth, a third-place finish in Cy Young voting and even tallying some MVP votes as high points. But none of those accolades compare to leading your team to the pennant. Gallen and teammate Merrill Kelly did that.
Season prediction: Gallen’s tallying numbers will come down a bit as Arizona has aspirations to play for seven months again. That means less innings and strikeouts but not necessarily less success. The 180-inning mark could be his sweet spot in 2024. It’s the number he attained in 2022 when he led the league in WHIP (0.913) and hits (5.9) per nine innings pitched. — Rogers
Castillo is coming off arguably his best season, one that saw him win 14 games, accumulate a career-high 197 innings, post a 3.34 ERA and finish within the top five in Cy Young voting for the first time in his career. But the ending will haunt him. Facing the division-rival Rangers on the final day of September, with the Mariners still clinging to faint playoff hopes, Castillo allowed four runs before completing the third inning. It eliminated the Mariners on the second-to-last day of their season, but it shouldn’t change the reality that Castillo — ninth among his peers in fWAR from 2018 to 2023 — is one of the finest pitchers in the world.
Season prediction: ZiPS (Fangraphs’ player projections system) has Castillo finishing the 2024 season with a 3.27 ERA, the lowest among those projected to qualify for the ERA title. It will mark the first such accomplishment of his career. — Gonzalez
40. George Kirby, SP, Seattle Mariners
Pitching in its simplest form: Throw hard and throw it where you want. Kirby throws a 96-mph fastball at the top of the zone — whether it’s a four-seamer or sinker — and throws strikes. Like, all the time. He walked 19 batters in 31 starts and had 16 starts where he issued no free passes. His walk rate of 2.5% has been bettered just twice in the past two decades by a qualified starter (Phil Hughes in 2014 and Cliff Lee in 2010).
Kirby improved his slider last season, adding more sweep and vertical drop, and then started using a splitter more in the second half of 2023, improving his overall strikeout rate. In the final game of 2023, he unveiled a ridiculous knuckleball with 12 inches of arm-side run and 50 inches of vertical drop that Seager helplessly flailed at — not that we should expect to see it much in 2024. But it sure would be fun to see it every now and then.
Season prediction: This ranking suggests our voters are extremely high on Kirby performing even better given some of the starting pitchers he’s ranked above. Cole is the obvious Cy Young favorite in the AL while Kirby only ranks eighth in the current odds at +1500. Is this a good time to mention that Greg Maddux never had a 9.05-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio? — Schoenfield
With Miami’s Sandy Alcantara out for the season, Webb will be baseball’s best example of an old-school starting pitcher in 2024. He doesn’t produce that much swing-and-miss, as his whiff rate ranked in just the 11th percentile. Instead, he gets hitters to chase (86th percentile), keeps the ball down (99th percentile groundball rate) and attacks the zone (99th percentile walk rate). This approach allowed the durable Webb to get deep into games and paved his path for an MLB-high 216 innings in 2023. Luckily, he wasn’t evaluated by old-school methods, as he finished second in the NL Cy Young balloting despite finishing with an 11-13 record. That was a Giants thing: Only Kansas City’s Zack Greinke received less run support than the 2.8 runs per 27 outs San Francisco put up for Webb.
Season prediction: Fewer innings, more wins. Webb doesn’t necessarily need to strike out more hitters but he could be a little less aggressive in the zone, which might allow him to give up less hard contact even if his pitch counts rise. With a 1.3 BB/9 rate in 2023, he’s got some buffer to work with. Even if none of that happens, he is due for better luck in the win/loss department. — Doolittle
The high velocities and devastating movements of today’s pitches prompted an entire industry to change the way it teaches hitting, triggering the launch angle revolution that saw players chase slug and ignore whiff. Putting bat to ball has never been more difficult — so Arraez, then, is a wizard. In 2022, he won a batting title. In 2023, he carried a .400 batting average well into May and finished at a major-league-leading .354 clip. His .326 batting average since he debuted in 2019 is 11 points higher than the next hitter on that list, Freeman. Only three others even reached .300 in that stretch. Arraez might not hit for much power and definitely won’t impact games with his legs, but he is a throwback to a time when hitting didn’t look this easy.
Season prediction: Arraez isn’t a product of batted-ball luck — he is an elite hitter, one whose skill set is maximized in a big ballpark like the one his Marlins play out of. He’ll win his third consecutive batting title in 2024 — done in the NL most recently by a man named Tony Gwynn. — Gonzalez
New manager Craig Counsell is already marveling at Swanson’s play at shortstop and we haven’t even reached the regular season yet. His offense has some volatile aspects to it, but the two-time Gold Glove winner is a pitcher’s best friend these days. Swanson can make the play from the hole on the left side of the infield as well as anyone in the game, and it’s not all because of his strong arm. He’s perfected the pop-up slide and throw — and he can do it lightning quick to nail even the fastest runners. Power that comes along with strikeouts is part of his DNA on offense, but his leadership for the upstart Cubs might be most important. An offensive season that’s a little more consistent could move him up the list.
Season prediction: It’s simple. Swanson will win his third consecutive Gold Glove award. — Rogers
A fixture near the top of this list — Arenado was 10th last year — he dipped after the Cardinals’ disastrous 2023 season. Following a career-high WAR output of 7.9 in 2022, Arenado posted only 2.4 wins last year — a solid season for sure but nowhere near his expectations. That makes this something of a pivotal season for the eight-time All-Star. Arenado turns 33 in April. A strong push in his mid-30s would solidify his case for the Hall of Fame, which is strong already. More than that, it would help the Cardinals rescue themselves from the basement of the NL Central, a spot they’d never occupied since its creation in 1994.
Season prediction: Arenado is in line for a bounce-back season. He may not approach the numbers he put up during his 20s in Colorado, but 30 home runs and a return to Gold Glove form defensively are more than realistic. — Passan
His new Dodgers teammates were initially intrigued by the javelin, then they were mesmerized by everything else — the quality of his stuff, the precision of his command, the efficiency of his delivery. With what amounts to a slide step, Yamamoto — 5-10, 176 pounds — fires off a highly deceptive, upper-90s four-seam fastball that can dot to all four quadrants of the strike zone. But his command of a rainbow curveball and a darting splitter are just as precise. The 25-year-old right-hander won three consecutive MVPs in Japan. During that time, he carried a 1.42 ERA and allowed just 15 home runs in 557 2/3 innings — including just two last season. There’s a reason for that.
Season prediction: Kodai Senga flourished in his first season in the majors, going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA in 166 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2023. That’s probably a good comp for Yamamoto — except with three more wins and a slightly lower ERA. — Gonzalez
46. Will Smith, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
He kind of gets lost among all of the Dodgers’ stars, and that certainly isn’t going to change in 2024, but Smith remains a steady, reliable and underrated catcher. Over the past three seasons, he trails only J.T. Realmuto in WAR among catchers — and since Smith was better last season, it registers that he’s second only to Rutschman among backstops on this list. I’ve been waiting for a little more offense from Smith since he burst onto the scene in 2019-20, but even if that doesn’t happen, the Dodgers will happily take another .800 OPS season. With Ohtani locked into the DH role, a spot Smith started at 14 times last season, it will be interesting to see if he catches a few more games.
Season prediction: Smith projects as the regular cleanup hitter behind Betts, Ohtani and Freeman, which means he’s going to get a ton of RBI opportunities — at least when Ohtani hasn’t cleared the bases. He drove in 76 runs in 2023 and 87 in 2022, but let’s say he reaches 100 for the first time and earns his first All-Star start. — Schoenfield
On one hand, it would be surprising if the good-but-not-great Goldschmidt we saw in 2023 is simply what he is now 13 years into a great career. That’s because he was at his best only one year before, leading the NL with a 177 OPS+ and winning his first MVP trophy. On the other hand, he turns 37 in September, and even for future Hall of Famers, which he may be, this is sometimes how it happens. While even the 2023 version of Goldschmidt helps a team win games, in order for the Cardinals to bounce back this summer, they really need him to show that last year was just a down season, not a new, late-career level of play. You probably shouldn’t bet against him.
Season prediction: Goldschmidt is getting on, there’s no way around that, but expect him to split the difference between his highly dissimilar last two performances. That player — say, .290/.380/.510, 30 homers, 100 RBIs, 100 runs — isn’t peak Goldy, but he’s an All-Star. — Doolittle
The comeback player of the year in 2023 was easily the Cubs most valuable as the team’s offense ran through him. Bellinger’s season was defined by his success against left-handed pitching — he was a beast, hitting .337 off southpaws. And he should be as motivated as ever, considering he had to take a shorter-term deal with opt outs in returning to the Cubs after the start of spring training. Another great season and Bellinger may very well cash in on that long-term, mega-contract. He’ll be several years removed from major injury and would have put up back-to-back productive seasons. He just has to do it now.
Season prediction: Bellinger might sacrifice some contact for power in 2024 as he cut down on his swing last season — and the team was better for it. The lefty hit 26 home runs last year. He’ll easily hit more than 30 this season. — Rogers
If you were to draw up a list of players who have the most money at stake in 2024, Bregman might be at the top. He turns 30 at the end of March and is set to become a free agent at season’s end, and another third baseman, Matt Chapman, was just slow-played into a three-year, $54 million deal. If Bregman puts up big numbers this season, he’ll get a whole lot more than that — and he spent the winter working with weighted bats in an effort to increase his bat speed and, in turn, the exit velocity of the ball he hits. If he’s able to do that, with his simple and efficient swing, he could have a monster year.
Season prediction: His best season was in 2019, when he mashed 41 homers and drew 119 walks, while batting .296. Those numbers would seem to be in play for him again, and he’ll benefit from having Altuve and Alvarez hitting in front of him and Tucker batting behind him. — Olney
Verlander fell off slightly from his dominant Cy Young form of 2022 last year, going 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 innings for the Mets and Astros. This is the point when we should probably point out that he did this at age 40, with more than 3,000 innings under his belt.
Verlander is still going strong, but some drop-off is to be expected. He reported to camp with a shoulder issue that put him a couple weeks behind the other pitchers and will force him to begin the season on the injured list. And though the Astros don’t sound concerned, it’s certainly something to monitor. So is Verlander’s strikeout rate, which fell to 21.5% in 2023, his lowest in eight years. First-pitch strikes were particularly elusive.
Season prediction: Verlander needs 140 innings — and a clean bill of health — to trigger a $35 million option for 2025. It’s probably a safe bet that he’ll find a way to make that happen. His numbers might dip again in 2024, but not by much. Verlander, at 41, is still a force. — Gonzalez
51. Kevin Gausman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
During his 20s, Gausman’s career was marked by inconsistency. You really had no idea how he would do from one year to the next. Since he turned 30, he has flipped the script and become one of baseball’s most consistent aces. He’s on a three-year run of 31 or more starts, 184 innings per season, a 3.10 ERA underpinned by a 2.79 FIP and 132 ERA+. Last season, Gausman led the AL in strikeouts and strikeouts per nine innings. His command wasn’t quite as sharp as it was in 2022, but the extra whiffs accommodated for that and were at least in part due to improved metrics on his already vicious splitter.
Season prediction: As long as Gausman stays healthy — he went through a bout of shoulder fatigue in spring training — there’s no reason to think his run of success will end. Pencil in 31 starts, a 2.90 to 3.30 ERA, 180 innings, 200 whiffs and more than a few Cy Young votes. — Doolittle
52. Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
While Nola entered free agency last fall, it never felt like he was going to leave Philly, and he quickly signed a seven-year, $172 million contract. That’s a testament to his durability — he’s made at least 32 starts in every full season going back to 2018. In that span, he leads the majors in games started while ranking second to just Cole in innings. His ERAs have fluctuated, however, based on the number of home runs he has given up. He allowed 32 in 2023, helping to explain his mediocre 4.46 ERA despite a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio. There were also some declines in his swing-and-miss rate (from the 68th percentile to the 48th) and strikeout rate, but he still excels at getting hitters to chase his curveball or changeup just off the plate.
Season prediction: Oddly, Nola’s home run problems came on the road, where he had a 5.43 ERA, and not at cozy Citizens Bank Park. It will certainly be interesting to see how he ages over this contract given his below-average fastball velocity (batters slugged .503 against it in 2023), but in the short term, he should be fine, and I’d expect him to cut maybe a run off his ERA. — Schoenfield
Is Harris just starting to reach his potential? If so, he’ll move into the top 50 in short order, as he has produced two .800 OPS seasons to begin his career after winning Rookie of the Year in 2022. And he’s only just recently turned 23. He fits right in with the dynamic Braves as a multi-tool player who has 37 home runs and 40 stolen bases in his first two seasons. Progress isn’t always linear in baseball, but sometimes players follow a predictable path to success when they enter the league with the kind of talent that Harris possesses. Another leap simply makes sense.
Season prediction: Expect a big season from Harris in a talented Braves lineup. A 20-20 season is the minimum — 20-30 or even 30-30 is a possibility if he can draw a few more walks. That’s the one area of concern, a 4-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (what he had last season) might keep his on-base percentage down. But he can improve that. — Rogers
Arozarena’s unparalleled swag likely helped his ranking more than his numbers, which are very good but not necessarily befitting a near-top 50 spot. He’s not nearly the hitter that his teammate Yandy Diaz is, and if they were to switch places — Diaz is ranked 74th — neither would feel particularly out of place. Still, Arozarena is an electric presence in any lineup, capable of hitting home runs in bunches, stealing bases and making big catches in the outfield. He may not be the superstar who took over the 2020 postseason, but at 28, he’s square in his prime and one of the more reliable outfielders in MLB. There is plenty of substance to go along with the style.
Season prediction: Arozarena books his fourth consecutive 20-20 season, and while he may suffer a walk-rate regression – his 7.1% to 12.2% jump between 2022 and 2023 was among MLB’s highest — he’ll post an .800-plus OPS for the first time since 2021. — Passan
Lopez got to Minnesota, learned the sweeper and took his game to another level in 2023, posting a 3.66 ERA in 194 innings and accumulating 234 strikeouts, second most in the AL. Now, with Sonny Gray in St. Louis, he is the unquestioned Twins ace, all the more critical to their chances of repeating as AL Central champions. Lopez wants to be even better, and he had a very specific goal this spring: to have enough command of all five of his pitches that he can throw them in any count and, more importantly, against any type of hitter. He has been pretty consistent in using his curveball against lefties and his sinker against righties. Now he wants to be completely unpredictable.
Season prediction: At 28, Lopez can still get better. And given the overall weakness of the division in which he pitches, he’ll do better in AL Cy Young voting this season — from seventh in 2023 to within the top five for the first time in his career in 2024. — Gonzalez
It will be a crossroad season for Valdez, who does not have a long-term deal with the Astros in place and is in line to reach free agency at the end of 2025. The question surrounding the 30-year-old is this: When he’s in position to get paid, will he have Clark Kent-type marketability, or will he be the Superman left-hander of the AL? That depends on whether he rediscovers his sinking fastball that largely abandoned him at the end of the 2023 campaign. In his three postseason starts last fall, he allowed 19 hits and 13 runs in 12 innings, with opponents hitting .359 and four homers against him. When his sinker is right, he’s a ground ball machine.
Season prediction: He might have to reinvent himself, finding weapons other than the turbo sinker, and he’ll have to do that without Martin Maldonado and instead team up with Yainer Diaz. He’s in for a summer of adjustments and some frustration, but also growth. — Olney
57. Dylan Cease, SP, Chicago White Sox
An offseason of trade speculation has given way to a spring training of speculation, but Cease is still in Chicago — at least for the moment — and was named the Opening Day starter back in January. Cease is the only proven starter on the team and said offseason treatment allowed him to come into camp healthier than ever. Usually, he deals with arm soreness during the winter, but he got ahead of it this year and is primed for a bounce-back after seeing his ERA jump from 2.20 in 2022 to 4.58 last season. Expect him to get off to a fast start — no matter what team he’s on.
Season prediction: He might start the season with the White Sox, but he won’t finish it with them. Cease will end up on a contending team. It’s anyone’s guess where he’ll be pitching come August. — Rogers
The 11-year, $280 million contract Bogaerts signed with the Padres before last season might have inflated expectations for his first campaign on the West Coast. He started slow, hampered by a sore wrist, and ended the season more or less as a facsimile to the All-Star player he was in Boston.
Still, this will be a key season for Bogaerts — and the Padres — with a whole lot of contract (and money) binding team and player together. He hit the ball on the ground too much last year, but that improved as the season went along, so you have to wonder how the wrist was playing into that at the start. Overall, he adapted to Petco Park well enough, though his home production wasn’t what he put up at Fenway. It was a solid, not spectacular, NL debut.
Season prediction: As he transitions to second base — a position at which his below-average shortstop arm becomes a plus — expect Bogaerts to remain on the 4-to-5 WAR level. He’s a middle infielder who posts a 120 OPS+ or better every season, and his glove should play well at the keystone. Forget the contract; value the player. — Doolittle
The reigning NL Cy Young winner became just the 22nd hurler to win the award at least twice after going 14-9 while leading the majors with a 2.29 ERA and .181 batting average against in 2023. There’s no denying Snell’s pure stuff is as unhittable as any southpaw starter’s in the game, starting with a fastball that sits at 95-96 mph and adding a curveball and slider that both generated whiff rates over 50%. It also comes with a high degree of wildness that didn’t hurt him last season, as he went 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA over his final 23 starts. He became the first pitcher to lead his league in ERA despite walking more than five batters per nine innings. Concerns over his wildness and durability — the two years he won the Cy Young, 2018 and 2023, are the only two times he’s pitched more than 130 innings — might be why he has remained unsigned in free agency.
Season prediction: We have to see where he signs, but does that dominant final four months mean Snell can crush it over an entire season? Unlikely. There’s just no recent track record of a pitcher walking that many batters and still pitching consistently at this level (in fact, his walk rate was the highest for a qualified pitcher since 1999), at least not since Nolan Ryan. In the end, let’s go with his career mark: a 3.20 ERA, which is still All-Star-level if Snell can stay healthy. — Schoenfield
60. J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Is Realmuto going through what basically every player does as they get deeper into their 30s while handling such a demanding position — or, as Phillies manager Rob Thomson joked at one point late into the 2023 season, is he simply bogged down by being the father of four children? Whatever the reason, Realmuto’s home-road splits last season were eye-opening. He slashed a mere .198/.257/.320 inside Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, one of the most hitter-friendly sites in the majors, and .306/.364/.587 on the road. Those splits were ultimately the reason his adjusted OPS went from 130 to 106 from 2022 to 2023, and one of the biggest reasons why he produced five fewer fWAR. It’s probably why arguably the game’s best catcher is only 60th on our list.
Season prediction: Realmuto’s barrel rate in 2023 (11.3%) was nearly identical to where it was in 2022 (11.2%). He, like many others, has hit well at Citizens Bank Park before. He’ll bounce back offensively — and remain solid enough behind the plate to still be considered one of the best at his position. — Gonzalez
61. Josh Hader, RP, Houston Astros
Will any pitcher in baseball history make more money pitching fewer innings than Hader has? Last season, he once again averaged less than an inning pitched per appearance but he was as good as ever, leading to that $95 million deal with the Astros. There was a moment during his career in Milwaukee where perhaps he looked like he had been used too much — back then he averaged more than an inning per appearance — but he rebounded from that dip in fine fashion. His free agent year of 2023 was a doozy, as he compiled a 1.28 ERA for the Padres while striking out 85 in 56⅓ innings. Expect Hader’s usage to remain the same in Houston as Ryan Pressly can help cover late innings as well.
Season prediction: Hader will save 40 games for Houston this year, a career high. — Rogers
Gilbert has been a sturdy, reliable performer in his two-plus seasons with the Mariners, never missing a start and winning 26 games the past two seasons with a 3.47 ERA while averaging 188 innings. He’s 6-foot-6 and throws 96 mph, but his fastball is the least effective of his pitches. He introduced a splitter last season to go with his slider and curveball, and he’s a joy to watch as he mixes all four pitches and pounds the strike zone (just 1.7 walks per nine innings). It’s possible there’s another gear here, as well, if he can cut down on the home runs (29 in 2023, 14 off those off his fastball).
Season prediction: You’d think Gilbert’s fastball would play up better since he also has elite extension given his height and delivery (99th percentile), but it’s a low-spin four-seamer, so he gives up a lot of hard contact. Maybe that does limit his upside to not quite Cy Young-contending levels, but I could see 15 wins, a 3.20 ERA and maybe his first All-Star selection. — Schoenfield
Doesn’t it seem like the better Montgomery gets, the harder it is for him to find a team that will keep him around? Surely, barring financial constraints, the Rangers would love to have Monty back after his essential contribution last season, a 6-3, 3.11 ERA second-half showing that helped save an injury-ravaged Texas rotation and punch a ticket to October. Over the past three seasons, Montgomery has averaged 175 innings with a 121 ERA+. He has big game experience, with a 2.63 over 37⅔ postseason innings. He’s done all this as a command pitcher who doesn’t rely on elite velocity. And yet he’s moved from the Yankees to the Cardinals to the Rangers over the past two years, followed by a way-too-long wait on the free agent market. Eventually, he will find a home — and the team that provides it will be very happy.
Season prediction: Montgomery will throw strikes, work the edges, provide bulk frames and end up with another sub-4.00 ERA. We just don’t know for whom he will be doing these things. — Doolittle
64. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
So much attention has focused on Yamamoto, but Dodgers officials are bullish on Glasnow, who they signed to a five-year, $136.56 million contract immediately after acquiring him from the Rays. He is already 30, but the Dodgers believe he is just starting to tap into his potential as one of the sport’s upper-echelon pitchers. He flashed that in the lead-up to Tommy John surgery in 2021, posting a 2.66 ERA and striking out 123 batters in 88 innings. He ranks third among starting pitchers in strikeout percentage since 2019, behind only Strider and Jacob deGrom. But, alas, Glasnow also ranks 124th in innings.
Season prediction: Glasnow will thrive while backed by a potent offense, but the Dodgers will be careful with someone who hasn’t thrown more than 120 innings in a season. His innings will jump to 150, and he’ll keep his ERA under 3.00. — Gonzalez
The first baseman mentioned casually this spring that he had turned down contract overtures with the Red Sox, and you can understand why — the path he took last season, when he hit .263/.367/.490 with 24 home runs and 65 RBIs and finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting, is likely to take him to future superstardom. He has a rare combination of plate discipline and power, and like some Red Sox left-handed hitting legends of the past — Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Wade Boggs, David Ortiz — he is likely to have good habits reinforced by the presence of the Green Monster.
Season prediction: After the All-Star break last season, Casas hit .317 with a .417 on-base percentage and 15 homers. He seems fully capable of having a breakout year and finishing in the top 10 of the AL MVP race. — Olney
66. Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Marte’s postseason performance last year was something special. He delivered when the Diamondbacks needed it most in the NLCS, going 12-for-31 in the team’s upset of the Phillies. In 21 career playoff games, he has a .974 OPS, cementing him as the under-the-radar star to Caroll’s more headline-grabbing game. At just 29, but with nine years in the big leagues already, Marte might be getting better — and Arizona has him locked up through 2028. He’s simply a solid performer who belongs in the top 100 — though he may never break into the top 50.
Season prediction: Marte flashed power last season, hitting 25 home runs, but he might be at his best when he’s making contact and simply getting on base. He hit just 14 home runs in 2021 but his .909 OPS was the second-highest of his career. Expect a cutback on power, an increase in OBP and a reduced strikeout total for him in 2024. The D-backs added enough power this offseason that they may not need it from their second baseman. — Rogers
67. Eury Perez, SP, Miami Marlins
There may be no pitcher in baseball with greater upside than Perez, who, at 20, is the youngest player on this list. He is about as close to a create-a-player as there is on the mound: 6-foot-8, 220 pounds with exceptional body control, a fastball that sits at 98 mph and a plus slider, changeup and curveball.
While he was slightly homer-happy in his rookie season — his 25.4% groundball rate was the lowest of all pitchers in MLB with at least 90 innings — Perez flashed dominance more often than not in his 19 starts. This ranking may be a touch high because he’ll remain on an innings limit this season, but once he’s unleashed in 2025, he’s got a shot to reach a ceiling few have: the best pitcher in baseball.
Season prediction: The Marlins will monitor Perez’s output carefully this season, and he figures to finish somewhere in the 150- to 160-inning range. His home run rate will dip from around 1.5 per nine innings, and, accordingly, his ERA will do the same. He’ll wind up near the top of the NL leaderboard with a 2.71 ERA. — Passan
Every team needs a Hoerner, someone whose value has next to nothing to do with home runs but who does everything else well. It’s not that Hoerner can’t go deep — he’s rung up 19 dingers over the past two seasons — but the longballs are beside the point. He gets on base, steals and makes contact when you need someone to make contact. On the field, Hoerner slid over from shortstop to make room for Swanson, even though he was a very good defender at the six-hole. All he did was win a Gold Glove with metrics that supported that recognition. Add the package up and you have a four-to-five win player just entering the prime of his career.
Season prediction: As Hoerner hits his age-27 season, it’s time for him to make his first All-Star team. A .300 average, .360 OBP with the slightest uptick in slug will get him there, along with a pace on the bases that should get him over the 50-steal and 100-run barriers. — Doolittle
69. Sean Murphy, C, Atlanta Braves
Murphy struggled after the start of September last year, OPS’ing just .451. But his final numbers — a .251/.365/.478 slash line, 21 home runs, 4.2 fWAR — were still really, really good. And in some ways he was even better than that, with an expected weighted on-base average of .395, which would’ve landed him within the top 10 in weighted on-base average if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
That’s another thing: Murphy, 29, started only 98 of the Braves’ 162 regular-season games behind the plate despite not landing on the IL. The Braves were careful with his workload. And Murphy, who spent his previous four years playing home games in Northern California, admitted that he struggled with the Atlanta heat in the summer months.
Season prediction: Murphy has long solidified himself as one of the game’s best catchers, and there’s no reason to expect much drop-off at this point. He’ll have a better second half in his second year in Atlanta and, given the potency of the lineup in which he resides, will have his best offensive season in 2024. — Gonzalez
This ranking may look a little surprising given Hayes’ 15 home runs and 61 RBIs in 2023 were career highs, but it’s a testament to what our voters think about his defense — and the belief that he’s headed for a breakout season on offense. First the defense. Hayes ended Arenado’s 10-year run as the Gold Glove third baseman in the NL as his range factor of 3.11 plays per nine innings easily led all third basemen (the league average was 2.60, so he’s making an extra out every other game). He’s arguably the best defender now at any position. At the plate, he hit .299/.335/.539 with 10 home runs over his final 48 games. If he can do that over a full season, his 4.0 WAR from 2023 will climb much higher.
Season prediction: I’ll buy into the late-season power surge. How about 25 home runs, a Platinum Glove as the best overall defender in the NL and a 6.0 WAR season that places him in the top 10 of MVP voting? — Schoenfield
71. Edwin Diaz, RP, New York Mets
You can’t pin the Mets’ epically disappointing 2023 season on Diaz’s injury. At the same time, looking at it with a year’s hindsight, it sure feels like New York’s season started to go south as soon as Diaz’s knee gave way in the aftermath of a WBC victory for Puerto Rico. We love to point out every other year patterns in player careers and Diaz’s is a doozy. His ERAs going back to 2018: 1.96, 5.59, 1.75, 3.45, 1.31 and null. That last one, of course, reflects that he didn’t have an ERA in 2023 because of the injury. The good news for the Mets is that we’re back on an even year so we can probably expect a sub-2.00 ERA for Diaz. But in all seriousness, it wasn’t an arm injury, it’s been a year and he’s been fine in spring training. Diaz is back.
Season prediction: Diaz’s 2022 season wasn’t just dominant, it was one of the best reliever seasons of the century. Expecting a repeat of that is a bit rosy-eyed, but a 1.80 ERA, 15-plus strikeouts per nine and 30-plus saves seem like a safe bet. — Doolittle
De La Cruz, at 22, is not only the youngest hitter this high on the list but may have the greatest upside of any hitter in baseball. Like Perez, De La Cruz is about as close to a create-a-player as there is at the plate and in the field: 6-foot-5, 200 pounds with a switch-hitting bat that launches balls upward of 500 feet, the fastest foot speed in MLB and the best infield arm in the game.
He was quite strikeout-happy in his rookie season — his 33.7% K rate was fifth among all hitters in MLB with at least 400 plate appearances — but he flashed brilliance with tape-measure home runs and daring baserunning. This ranking may be a bit too high because it’s in baseball writers’ DNA to bet on talent, but it also may be too low, because if De La Cruz puts everything together, he’s got a shot to be one of the best players in baseball.
Season prediction: While he’s the Reds’ starter at shortstop, he’ll play plenty of third base as well. He’ll steal at least 50 bases and more than double his home run total of 13 from last season. The strikeouts will remain the only thing that holds him back from edging closer to his near-limitless potential. — Passan
73. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Like Cease, Bieber was the subject of trade rumors all winter, but surprisingly, he’s still on the Guardians. Set to be a free agent after this season, a huge platform year could lead to a big payday for the righty. He’s not exactly the same guy who won the Cy Young Award in the shortened 2020 season, but he’s still an effective pitcher. He belongs in the backend of the top 100 right now, but at 28 years old, there’s always a chance Bieber finds himself in that elite category of pitchers again. He has the experience, the know-how and, when healthy, the stuff to help anyone’s rotation. Like Cease, he may not finish the season with the team he’s on now.
Season prediction: After an injury-plagued 2023 season, Bieber rebounds for a big walk year. Expect him to pitch at least 180 innings, showing teams he’s once again effective and durable. — Rogers
74. Yandy Diaz, INF, Tampa Bay Rays
Diaz took his offensive game to another level during his age-30 season in 2022, producing 42% above league average based on adjusted OPS. In 2023, he found yet another level, leading the AL in batting average (.330) while establishing career highs in home runs (22), OPS (.932), weighted runs created plus (164) and practically everything else. So, is this just who he is now? Based on this ranking, he might reside somewhere in the middle of what he was in 2022 and 2023, which the Rays would certainly take. ZiPS projects a 133 wRC+, tied with Guerrero Jr. and Tucker for 12th in the majors.
Season prediction: Diaz shed close to 10 pounds over the offseason in hopes of gaining more agility and endurance and playing in all 162 games this season. If he can play in at least 150, he’ll reach 30 home runs for the first time in his career. — Gonzalez
75. Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets
Here’s how good Senga’s “ghost forkball” is: You can buy T-shirts with the slogan “Fear the Ghost Fork.” How many pitchers have a pitch worthy of its own T-shirt? And batters should fear it: In 188 plate appearances ending with that pitch, they hit .110 and struck out 110 times, making the ghost fork one of the supreme wipeout pitches in the majors. Senga rode that pitch and a 96-mph fastball to a superb first season with the Mets, going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA and the sixth highest strikeout rate among qualified starters.
Season prediction: He’s currently sidelined with a shoulder strain and will begin the season on the IL, making any prediction impossible. It’s a disappointing start to the season given how carefully the Mets handled him in 2023 (making just three starts on four days of rest). — Schoenfield
If the Pirates break out of their long sleep and ascend into competitive relevance in the next few years, then history will show that the turning point was their decision to invest an eight-year deal in Reynolds as a foundational player. He’s demonstrated that he’s a well-rounded star, as Andrew McCutchen was early in his career — in his first five seasons, Reynolds has an adjusted OPS+ of 124 while playing center field. Last year, he had 60 extra-base hits, 12 steals in 13 attempts, scored 85 runs and drove in 84.
Season prediction: The Pirates’ lineup around him is deepening, and as the likes of Hayes, Jack Suwinski and Cruz gain experience, Reynolds’ run production should improve. — Olney
Steele has figured it out. After putting up a 1.49 ERA over his past 10 starts in 2022, he followed that up by going 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA over 173⅓ innings with a league-low 0.7 homers allowed per nine innings last season. His 2.69 ERA since that breakout in 2022 began is the seventh best in baseball. During that time frame, 96.5% of his offerings have either been a four-seamer or a slider. He gets lefties and righties alike with that two-pitch arsenal and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to do so. Pitchers like Steele and Atlanta’s Strider have shown that if you have two elite pitches and the batter can’t tell which one is coming, you can do a lot of business as a starting pitcher. Steele did fade a bit down the stretch in 2023, so it’s important for him and the Cubs to figure out the root cause of that.
Season prediction: Steele’s rise has been fueled by the pinpoint command he has with his stripped-down arsenal. Until big league hitters start showing us otherwise, we can expect another 3.10-ish ERA over 170 to 180 innings. — Doolittle
Correa simply isn’t going to play 153 or more games like he did for Houston in 2016. But even at 135 games or so, he’s a solid player that will likely be in the back half of the top 100 for the next few years. His batting average took a big dip in 2023 despite his average exit velocity hovering around his career numbers. He’ll always have decent power for a shortstop and at 28 years old, there’s still a chance for a huge year, but he’s mostly just a good player and a leader on a team that needs him to be.
Season prediction: You can bookmark Correa for a .250, 20-homer, 50-BB and 100-strikeout season as his hit total will go up in 2024, but his numbers won’t get him to his third All-Star Game. — Rogers
Parting with Starling Marte in the summer of 2021 might have been difficult, but Luzardo, the man the Marlins got back in a rare one-for-one trade, has been everything they could’ve expected. In 50 starts over the past two years, the 26-year-old left-hander has posted a 3.52 ERA while striking out 328 batters in 279 innings, further bolstering their deep crop of promising young starting pitchers. With Alcantara spending the 2024 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Luzardo was recently named the Opening Day starter. It was the obvious choice — even with Perez and Edward Cabrera also in the rotation.
Season prediction: Luzardo reached 178⅔ innings last season, a career-high by a wide margin. But he held up just fine in September, allowing four runs in 18⅓ innings over his last three starts. This year, he might just vault himself into the Cy Young discussion. — Gonzalez
80. Sonny Gray, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Gray is a throwback pitcher, outmaneuvering hitters with a wide arsenal of pitchers rather than simply blowing smoke past them. He threw six different pitches at least 6% of the time last season on his way to a second-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.
He has a four-seamer and a two-seamer, although he uses the four-seamer more against lefties and the two-seamer against righties. Against right-handers he’s more likely to mix in a sweeper and cutter, while using a curveball and changeup against lefties. Since 2019, he ranks 10th in ERA among pitchers with at least 500 innings — yet, as this ranking suggests, he’s rarely thought of as a top-10 starter. He leaves the Twins and joins the Cardinals, although he might start the season on the IL with a hamstring strain.
Season prediction: Assuming the hamstring isn’t a lingering issue, Gray should remain a top starter. He’s always been exceptional at limiting home runs (eight in 184 innings in 2023) and he’s improved his walk rate the past two seasons. How about a career-high 15 wins and an ERA just a little north of 3.00? — Schoenfield
We’re still learning what kind of player Greene will turn out to be, but there is no doubt that his tools and skill set are impressive. His two big league seasons, during which he had virtually the same amount of plate appearances, have been very different. Last season, he turned a sky-high ground ball rate into a better mix that featured an encouraging increase in line drives. That fueled Greene’s improved .288 batting average, though the BABIP underlining that (.384) looks bloated. The bottom line is that Greene hits the ball hard, plays a premium position and, at 23, is still getting better. He’s a crucial part of the foundation for whatever the Tigers become.
Season prediction: Greene will put in his first season with 140-plus games while giving away a few points of average and upping his homer total into the 20s, staking his claim to become the face of the post-Miguel Cabrera Tigers. — Doolittle
82. Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
The $54 million contract he signed with the Giants reflected both his past excellence — as a defender, particularly — and the doubts that evaluators still have about what kind of hitter he’ll be in the latter half of his career. Chapman, who turns 31 in April, has batted .226 over the past four seasons, with a high rate of strikeouts — including 165 in 140 games last season. He hit 17 homers in 581 plate appearances in 2023, but he also picked up his fourth Gold Glove — and it’s his defense that will always be the backbone of his value.
Season prediction: There is enough of a sample size in recent years to suggest that what you see is what you get — Chapman will hit 20-25 home runs and will have periods in which he’ll struggle to make contact. But his defense will help the Giants’ pitching staff, especially Logan Webb. — Olney
83. Ha-Seong Kim, 2B, San Diego Padres
It’s been a steady climb for Kim, who cracks our top 100 for the first time this year. His OPS+ has gone up in each of his first three seasons and now, with a higher floor, he has a chance to secure his first ever All-Star nod. Cutting down on strikeouts while still maintaining a high on-base percentage should be a goal of his for 2024. He had 75 free passes in 2023, a fairly high total for a non-slugger, and he also has 20 homer potential. Combine that with a .350 OBP and Kim could steadily move up the rankings a year from now.
Season prediction: Kim will slug .400 with an .800 OPS in 2024, continuing a trend of offensive improvement. — Rogers
84. Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cruz’s first full season in the major leagues ended after just nine games, the product of a fractured fibula suffered during a home plate collision that triggered a near brawl. He says he is fully recovered now, restriction-free, but trusting his legs and regaining his timing will be a process. Once that happens, we’re all in for a treat. Frankly, we’ve never seen a 6-foot-7 shortstop with the type of power, speed and arm strength he possesses. (Yeah, you can say the same about De La Cruz, but he’s two inches shorter!) Cruz still has a lot of developing to do as a hitter, as evidenced by his 126 strikeouts in 87 games as a rookie in 2022, but that should come as he matures. In the meantime, sheer talent will carry him a long way.
Season prediction: Cruz set out for a 30-30 season in 2023, then watched his season end in less than two weeks. This year, his only goal is to remain healthy. The rest, he said, “will come.” OK, we’ll say it for him — Cruz will flirt with a 30-30 season. And he’ll produce a lot of upper-90s throws from shortstop. — Gonzalez
85. Andres Gimenez, 2B, Cleveland Guardians
Let’s throw this out there: Gimenez’s first two full seasons at second base — both ending with Gold Glove Awards — suggest he has a chance to become one of the best ever to play the position. He has outstanding range, both via the eye test and advanced metrics, outstanding hands (just six errors in 2023) and a strong arm (he came up as a shortstop). His offense is a work in progress, relying on a lot of hit by pitches to boost his on-base percentage, but he has managed to hit 32 home runs the past two seasons despite some of the lowest hard-hit rates in the game. He’s one of those guys the general public will overlook because of the offensive profile, but he’s a valuable player.
Season prediction: A third straight Gold Glove Award — the easy choice here — and perhaps a second straight Platinum Glove as the best overall defender in the AL as well. At the plate? Probably more like 2023 than 2022, when he hit .297 thanks to some good fortune on his balls in play. — Schoenfield
Longtime Brewers fans will get this reference: Adames is basically his generation’s version of Jose Valentin. Adames has gotten to his power earlier than Valentin and the latter didn’t have nearly as high of a strikeout rate, was a switch-hitter and so on. Still, they’re both good defensive shortstops with power and you don’t sweat their batting averages. Through their age-27 seasons, Valentine’s career slash was .245/.319/.429; Adames is at .247/.320/.439. (Yes, the league contexts are way different.) You’d like to see Adames, now 28, get back some of the average he had in Tampa but even if he stays on the Valentin path, he’ll continue to help teams. If the Brewers drop in the standings, Adames will be a popular name on the in-season trade market. He may be anyway after Milwaukee acquired infield prospect Joey Ortiz over the winter.
Season prediction: Adames has a lot to prove after his uneven 2023 showing at the plate. He’s also entering a walk year. Look for Adames to bounce back to the .250ish batting average range while once again threatening 30 homers. — Doolittle
87. Emmanuel Clase, RP, Cleveland Guardians
Another player who could be traded midseason, Clase’s value may never be higher than it is right now. He’s coming off back-to-back 40-plus save seasons for the Guardians but may not be as valuable to them as he will be to a contending team. Still, he’s under team control for three years, so he could bring back a haul at the summer trade deadline. In that regard, no other position on the diamond changes value from December to July more than closers. Teams often believe they’ll make due with what they have in the first half of the season and then realize during the heat of a pennant race that a closer is the missing and final piece to their puzzle. Clase could be that guy this summer.
Season prediction: Clase won’t record a fourth straight 70-appearance season, a huge total for a closer. He gave up a bit more damage last season — 68 hits, up from 43 the year before in the same amount of innings pitched — so Cleveland may keep his trade value high by taking it easy on him. — Rogers
88. Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros
Peña’s breakthrough season in 2022, which saw him contend for AL Rookie of the Year, win a Gold Glove and help lead the Astros to a championship, was followed by some steps forward and some steps backward. He made better swing decisions in 2023, increasing his on-base percentage by 35 points, but his power dropped significantly. His 22-home run season in 2022 was followed by just 10 in 2023, including zero over his last 73 games. This spring, Peña unveiled a much more subtle, controlled batting stance designed to make him more efficient and strike baseballs with more authority. The Astros have raved about it thus far. They don’t really need much more offense from him, but they’ll certainly take it.
Season prediction: Peña’s first two years have seen him produce a 98 OPS+, with 100 representing league average. But we’re buying the new stance and the offensive resurgence that will come with it. He’ll get back to hitting more home runs, finishing with a 110 OPS+ and, because of his solid defense, 5.0 fWAR. — Gonzalez
89. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Texas chose Jung with the eighth pick in the 2019 draft for his bat, a right-handed thunderstick that crushed the minor leagues before his 2022 debut. In his first full season last year, he was in the AL Rookie of the Year mix before a late-season injury sidelined him for six weeks. He returned in time for the postseason, where he hit .308/.329/.538 and, perhaps more surprisingly, played exceptional defense at third, where some evaluators had wondered if he would stick when he was drafted. At 26, Jung is now a no-doubt third baseman, and while he’s got plenty of room to work on his swing decisions — he struck out five times as much as he walked last year — he could make his second All-Star team in as many years.
Season prediction: A calf strain has sidelined Jung for most of spring training, and the Rangers will take it easy with him, with Ezequiel Duran a plenty capable fill-in. Thirty home runs isn’t out of the question for Jung, nor a .500-plus slugging percentage, and power plus glove makes up for the relative lack of on-base percentage. — Passan
90. Kyle Schwarber, LF/DH, Philadelphia Phillies
Schwarber, if nothing else, is consistent. You can count on him for home runs and strikeouts, with some walks and the occasional single mixed in. It says a lot about his game that over the past two years, he finished 16th and 19th in MVP voting despite hitting .218 and .197, respectively, with a combined 415 strikeouts. But, oh, those home runs are almost always majestic and he seems to hit them when the team needs them most. His leadership has been well documented, as has his consistent appearance in the postseason — he’s been home during the playoffs just once in his career.
Season prediction: Schwarber hit a 483-foot home run last season, third longest in MLB. He’ll top that this year, reaching 500 feet for the first time in his career. — Rogers
You can’t really call a player who signed a $162 million contract underrated — especially one who plays in New York — but Nimmo probably still flies under the radar even after a second straight excellent season. He had been injury-prone earlier in his career, missing significant time in 2017, 2019 and 2021, but has now had back-to-back 150-game seasons, justifying the Mets’ gamble — at least in the first year of that big contract. With a career .380 OBP, he’s one of the best in the game at getting on base and his career-high 24 home runs in 2023 came with an increased launch angle, which suggests the power surge was legit.
Season prediction: The “Happiest Man in Baseball” — nobody smiles more than Nimmo — will have his happiest season yet with 30 home runs and his first All-Star selection. — Schoenfield
92. Evan Carter, LF, Texas Rangers
Let’s start with an entirely unfair leaderboard. Among players with at least 75 career plate appearances, here is your all-time top four in OPS+: 1. Babe Ruth, 206; 2. Ted Williams, 191; 3. (tie) Barry Bonds and Carter, 182. Carter followed that small-sample triumph during his late-season debut by putting up a .917 OPS in the postseason, helping the Rangers to a championship.
And now, the 21-year-old will be Texas’ starting left fielder on Opening Day. One thing we already know is that the moment will not be too big for him. One to-do item for Carter: He hasn’t hit lefties at all. After reaching MLB, he was 0-for-10 in the regular season, and in the minors, he had a .253 slug against southpaws, managing one double in 106 plate appearances.
Season prediction: Carter won’t remain a 182 OPS+ guy and may still have to sit against most lefties. But he’s so good in so many ways, he’ll challenge for AL Rookie of the Year honors, with teammate Wyatt Langford possibly being one of his chief competitors. — Doolittle
93. Gabriel Moreno, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
Of all the trades in recent years, the Diamondbacks’ pilfering of Moreno from the Blue Jays in December 2022 when he was a top prospect will be one of the most consequential. In his first full season last year, Moreno proved himself one of the best catchers in the big leagues — a game-changing defender behind the plate with a bat that’s plenty capable of holding its own. If it is more than that — if Moreno can hit more than seven home runs (his total in 2023) while maintaining a batting average that, at .292 on days he caught, was tops in the big leagues — we’re talking perennial MVP candidates. As is, Moreno’s floor is exceptionally high, and at just 24, he’s primed to be a force for the next decade.
Season prediction: Moreno, who showed up to camp this year in fantastic shape, takes a leap, batting .285, getting on base 35% of the time and slugging more than .450 with 18 home runs and 81 RBIs while moving up in the Diamondbacks’ much-improved lineup. — Passan
Some of the defensive metrics — particularly outs above average and Statcast’s outfield-jump measurement — graded Chisholm as an above-average center fielder in his transition from the middle infield last year. But once again, he couldn’t stay healthy. Bouts with turf toe and an oblique strain limited him to 97 games in 2023 — one year after a lower back strain and a partially torn meniscus kept him out for the regular season’s final three months. Chisholm, 26, is bursting with talent, evidenced by his 19 home runs and 22 stolen bases in limited action last year. But at some point we need to see it over a full season.
Season prediction: This one is more of a hope than a prediction: 150 games. We’re all pining to see a fully unlocked Chisholm. Let’s hope 2024 is the year we finally get it. — Gonzalez
Volpe hit just .209 with a .283 OBP in his rookie year in New York, but there is potential here as he became the first Yankee ever with a 20-20 season and the first since Derek Jeter to win a Gold Glove at the all-important position on the diamond. The Yankees believe he can control the strike zone better in his second season, which should keep him squarely in the top 100 when you consider his other abilities as a baseball player. His floor is decent, but what is the ceiling? We should find out more about that in 2024.
Season prediction: Volpe will sacrifice some power for more contact and less strikeouts. He’ll raise his average 35 points, but won’t reach 20 home runs this season. — Rogers
He’s not the player he was during his 2018-19 peak, when he won back-to-back batting titles while finishing first and then second in MVP voting, but Yelich did have his best season since 2019, hitting .278/.370/.447 with 19 home runs, 28 stolen bases, 106 runs and 3.6 WAR last year. Most importantly, he’s managed his back issues the past couple of years and played 144 games in 2023 (although he missed 12 in September when his back flared up). With a slew of speedy outfielders to choose from — especially if Jackson Chourio cracks the Opening Day roster — Yelich may see more DH time this year, but he should once again serve the Brewers as one of the top leadoff hitters in the game.
Season prediction: More of the same, assuming he stays healthy. At 32, there’s no reason to expect anything different, so let’s say 20 home runs, 25 stolen bases and a .265 average. — Schoenfield
97. Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners
There just aren’t that many everyday catchers anymore. Last season, just nine backstops qualified for the batting title and Raleigh was one of them. Only Realmuto (535) had more plate appearances as a catcher in 2023 than Raleigh’s 494. No catcher hit more home runs than him, with 24 of his 30 dingers coming while he played behind the plate. (The rest were while he was DHing or pinch hitting.) Raleigh gets on the field so much because he’s a switch-hitter with power and not much of a platoon split. Just as important, he can defend. According to Fangraphs’ consensus defensive measure (Def), only two players in the majors offered more defensive value in 2023. Raleigh is still under the radar, but he’s emerged as one of baseball’s best catchers.
Season prediction: Let’s just say that you shouldn’t draft Seby Zavala, Raleigh’s backup, for your fantasy team. Raleigh will again rack up 140-plus games, threaten 30 homers and build a case for Gold Glove consideration. — Doolittle
98. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
At age 35, he is the third-oldest player in the Top 100 — only Verlander and Goldschmidt are senior to him — and that seems to fit the narrative of his career as a late bloomer. He was pitching in Korea in his age 29-season, and since then, he has seemingly gotten better and better, using his repertoire and experience against hitters more and more effectively — to the degree that last October, he was standing on the mound in a World Series game.
Season prediction: His 3.29 ERA last season was the best full-season performance of his career, and there’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down. He is his generation’s Jamie Moyer, and he’ll have another solid year for the Diamondbacks. — Olney
Williams’ first full season as closer was a dominant success: 36 saves, a 1.53 ERA, his second All-Star appearance and a ridiculous .129 batting average allowed that led the majors among pitchers with at least 50 innings and ranks as the eighth lowest ever. That was hardly a fluke given he allowed a .151 average in 2022. Williams lives off his changeup, a pitch so good it has its own nickname, “The Airbender.” He throws it more than 50% of the time, which makes his 94 mph fastball look 110 mph. Like Hader before him, Williams carried a light workload — just 58 innings in 2023 — so it will be interesting to see if new manager Pat Murphy pushes him a little harder.
Season prediction: Aroldis Chapman’s .119 average allowed in 2014 is the lowest ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings. With three fewer hits, Williams would have broken that mark. So let’s go with a .117 average allowed. — Schoenfield
100. Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Coming back from a second Tommy John surgery can be quite daunting, even for someone as talented and as confident as Buehler. The 29-year-old right-hander was racing to return in time to help the Dodgers in last year’s playoffs but had to shut it down after just one rehab start. Now, he’s being built back up slowly. He’ll begin the season on the IL, then be placed on an innings limit upon activation in 2024 — his final season before free agency. The last time we saw Buehler, he had established himself as one of the sport’s elite starting pitchers and also one of its best big-game performers. What he’ll be moving forward remains a mystery.
Season prediction: The 2024 season will in many ways function as a transition year for Buehler. The Dodgers will probably keep his innings to the low hundreds, hoping to preserve him mostly for October. But Buehler’s ability and competitiveness will nonetheless allow him to return as one of baseball’s most devastating starters. — Gonzalez
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Bradford Doolittle
Despite a bumpier-than-expected path, the Los Angeles Dodgers might still repeat as World Series champions, becoming the first team to do so since the New York Yankees of the late 1990s. If that comes to pass, few would be surprised. At the same time, based on what we’ve seen since Opening Day, few would be surprised, also, if they fall.
Thus the Dodgers’ season can’t yet be labeled a success or a failure. If the Dodgers win another title, that’s an obvious success. Failure is a little harder to define, but consider that L.A. is one of five teams on pace to finish more than 10 games under their preseason baseline forecast. They’re also leading the tough National League West. Success or failure?
The answer is complicated. Baseball is the most quantifiable and projectable of the major sports, and forecasts are invaluable in setting our expectations for what might happen, and how to react to what actually comes to pass. Yet baseball is also paradoxically and wonderfully unpredictable.
Teams and pundits alike enter the season with a good idea of what each club’s strengths and weaknesses are, yet those observations tend to fly out the window when confronted by the reality of an actual season.
Using preseason expectations as our guide, we’re going to identify the biggest success — and failure — for all 30 teams. Plan and project all you want. In the end, the fates will have their way.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Biggest success: Geraldo Perdomo
Most of the good news for Arizona this season has been on the position player side, led by a career year for Perdomo. After signing a four-year extension that doesn’t kick in until next year, the 25-year-old went out and put up the best season by a shortstop in franchise history. Already a defensive standout, Perdomo entered this season with 14 career home runs. This year, he has 19 and is on pace to drive in 100 runs. He also might get to 100 runs scored and 30 steals. It has been an MVP-level showing.
Biggest failure: The rotation
Arizona entered the season with an on-paper rotation that looked loaded — Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. That quintet has gone 47-39 with a 4.37 ERA. Burnes went down for the season in June. Kelly was traded. And the other three all have ERA+ figures well below league average. The Arizona bullpen has been even worse, but the roster and the payroll were built on a foundation of elite starting pitching that has not held up.
Biggest success: Nick Kurtz
That Kurtz is good isn’t a surprise. That he’s this good this fast is stunning and exhilarating. After an aggressive promotion in late April, Kurtz didn’t hit his first homer until his 17th big league game. He then went deep 19 times over 49 games with a 1.078 OPS and that was only the lead-up to his 6-for-6, four-homer outburst on July 25 in which he tied the MLB record for 19 total bases in a game. In his age-22 season, Kurtz is on track to become the eighth rookie with an OPS over 1.000 (minimum 400 plate appearances) and of the eight, only Ted Williams and Albert Pujols had a younger baseball age. The A’s have found their cornerstone player.
Biggest failure: Luis Severino
The A’s made a rare splurge in last winter’s free agent market, inking Severino to a three-year, $67 million deal. Year 1 has been disappointing. Severino has gone 6-11 with a 4.82 ERA and an 87 ERA+ while posting the lowest strikeout rate (17.6%) of his career. His struggles in Sacramento have been epic: Severino is 1-9 with a 6.51 ERA over 14 starts at Sutter Health Park.
Biggest success: Hurston Waldrep
Successes have been few and far between for the Braves, but Waldrep’s trajectory seems to be one of them. The sample remains small, but Waldrep went 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA over his first seven starts in 2025 before being roughed up by Houston. He looks like a keeper, if the Braves can keep him healthy.
Biggest failure: The entire season?
The Braves are on pace to miss their forecast by 24 games, a plummet so severe that it’s hard to blame it on any one thing. Injuries have played a part, but other teams are headed to the postseason with plenty of those — the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Brewers among those with worse health metrics than the Braves. The collapse on the pitching side has been more acute than on offense, but no one is without culpability. Perhaps worst of all, the Braves have baseball’s second-worst organizational record. Things haven’t been any better in the minors.
Biggest success: Trevor Rogers
The Orioles have underperformed across the board, so it could be that we’re damning Rogers with faint praise here, but he has been a genuine revelation. Rogers began the season in the minors and wasn’t that great there, going 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA in eight starts. In the majors? The former Marlin is 8-2 with a 1.43 ERA over 16 starts with solid peripherals. Go figure. Going into what Baltimore hopes will be a bounce-back 2026 season, the Orioles’ rotation needs a lot more success stories like this.
Biggest failure: Adley Rutschman
You hate to pick on one player when the Orioles have disappointed in so many areas, but Rutschman is an avatar for a number of shortcomings. He has underperformed: Baltimore entered the season with the third-best WAR projection at the catcher position but instead rank 25th. He has been injured: According to an injury impact metric based on data from Baseball Prospectus, the Orioles rank 29th in baseball. After two straight disappointing seasons for Rutschman, and considering the arrival of elite prospect Samuel Basallo, the future of the Orioles at catcher looks a lot different than it did a couple of years ago.
Biggest success: Pitching acquisitions
You really can’t choose between Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet or reliever-of-the-year candidate Aroldis Chapman, neither of whom was with Boston at this time last year. Crochet has blossomed with the Red Sox, matching the dominance he showed per-inning with Chicago with the workload of a true ace. Chapman, at 37, is on pace to record a career-best ERA (1.26) and his second-best bWAR (3.3, just shy of his 3.4 in 2012).
Biggest failure: In-season roster work
The Red Sox have received great production from their rookie class, headlined by Roman Anthony and Carlos Narvaez. But a team in position to challenge for the American League East title ranks 29th in my in-season acquisition index, a metric that looks at the quality and quantity of the production from players signed or traded for during the season. Boston has dealt with a lot of injuries (27th in injury impact) but has been too passive about compensating for them.
Biggest success: The offense
Things have slowed over the second half, but the Cubs’ attack has been one of baseball’s most productive and exciting over the course of the season. Chicago leads the majors in secondary average (patience and power), isolated power and team-level power-speed number. The production has come from up and down the lineup, giving the Cubs one of their deepest offenses in years.
Biggest failure: The bullpen
The Cubs’ rotation has picked up the pace over the second half, which has helped pick up the slack from the regressing hitters. But as October nears, the Cubs still lack clarity in the bullpen. With Daniel Palencia out, the relievers still lack a clear end-of-game hammer. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs’ relief ERA (4.40) is middle of the pack. For the most part, Craig Counsell has pieced things together, but the lack of impact acquisitions during the season, with the exception of Andrew Kittredge, might undermine the Cubs once the postseason arrives.
Biggest success: The rookies
According to my rookie contribution metric — basically adding up the consensus WAR figures for first-year players — the White Sox (11.61 rookie WAR) have four more wins than any other team. In Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Mike Vasil, Shane Smith, Edgar Quero and Wikelman Gonzalez, Chicago has graduated some bona fide building blocks to the majors. With a decent finish, the White Sox can avoid another 100-loss season. That might seem like a low bar for excitement, but when you’re coming off a 121-loss debacle, that’s a huge improvement.
Biggest failure: Luis Robert Jr.
The season began with reports of Roberts’ revamped approach at the plate, but 2025 proved to be another step back for one of the game’s most talented players. Robert did improve his strike-zone indicators, but it didn’t pay off at the bottom line, as his OPS+ dropped two more points off his career-low of 86 in 2024. And it looks as if he’ll end the season where he has spent far too much time during his career: on the injured list. Whether you view Robert as a White Sox building block or the team’s last-best chance to generate impactful return in the trade market, none of this is good.
Biggest success: The rotation
The Reds’ pitching, in general, has kept the team on the fringe of the playoff chase all season, but the starters, in particular, have been rock solid. According to my AXE metric used in the Awards Watch series, six of the top nine Reds performers this season have been starting pitchers, led by Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. Only three teams have compiled more quality starts.
Biggest failure: The flagging offense
Cincinnati’s hitters are on track to finish around their preseason forecast of 660 park-neutral runs scored. But at the midway point of the season, the Reds were on pace to finish at 693, and during the span of the regression, a trade deadline passed. Miguel Andujar has helped, when he has played, but it hasn’t been enough. The Reds rank 19th or worse at five of the nine positions by OPS, and that’s with the baked in boost of Great American Ballpark.
Biggest success: The stretch-run rotation
After years of forging a reputation as a starting pitcher factory, the Guardians’ actual performance in that area over the past couple of years hasn’t lived up to it. Until recently, that is. After ranking 18th with a 4.17 rotation ERA through Aug. 25, Cleveland is second with a 2.78 mark since. The Guardians have hung in the playoff race with a 14-5 record during that span, despite ranking 22nd with only 4.16 runs scored per game.
Biggest failure: The offense
Take your pick, really. Whatever the offensive metric, the Guardians stink in it. They’re 29th or worse in each of the slash columns, last in BABIP and 24th in isolated power. They rank 29th in OPS at catcher and shortstop, and 30th in center field and right field. There is only so much Jose Ramirez can do.
Biggest success: Attendance
The Rockies are in the pack, drawing 29,676 fans per game, down just 1,211 over last season. They are outdrawing the first-place Detroit Tigers. The world is a very strange place sometimes.
Biggest failure: Everything else
Assuming the Rockies don’t lose out — which could happen, of course — they won’t end up matching or surpassing the 2024 White Sox’s season record for losses. Still, this marks the Rockies’ third straight 100-loss season, fourth straight last-place finish and seventh straight season of finishing fourth or worse in the NL West. The Rockies are long overdue when it comes to asking hard questions about how they do things.
Biggest success: Tarik Skubal
The Tigers are closing in on their first division title in 11 years and second straight playoff berth. They are built largely on internally developed players and hold baseball’s best overall organizational record. In other words, lots more talent is on the way. Still, Skubal stands out on a team full of success stories by replicating or even bettering his Cy Young-winning 2024 campaign. He has become one of baseball’s biggest stars and the face of what Detroit has been building — and this edifice has a lot of faces.
Biggest failure: The rotation depth
Skubal’s is but one turn through the rotation, and the Tigers’ run prevention has lagged over the second half of the season. Since the break, Skubal has a 2.31 ERA with eight quality starts in 10 outings. The rest of the Detroit rotation has a 5.32 ERA with only 10 quality starts in 43 outings. If this bites the Tigers in the postseason, there will be questions about why Detroit didn’t take a bigger swing at the trade deadline.
Biggest success: Front office improvisation
The Astros are almost right at their preseason forecast, but their path to those 87-88 wins has been less than predictable. Because of that, much of the story of Houston’s season can be told in two of the measures we keep mentioning. First, the Astros rank last in the injury impact metric, meaning no team has been more affected by player absences (Yordan Alvarez especially). Second, the Astros rank first on the in-season acquisition leaderboard. Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez, Ramon Urias, Craig Kimbrel and others have helped keep Houston’s contention window ajar as we enter the home stretch.
Biggest failure: Christian Walker
The Astros’ offense is much less dynamic than it has been in a long time. No one player is to blame, and Alvarez’s long stay on the IL has to be kept in mind. But things wouldn’t be quite so severe if Walker had plugged what has become a longstanding hole for Houston at first base. It’s always dicey signing free agent hitters who are well into their 30s, and so it has been so far for Walker, whose OPS+ has slipped from a three-year average of 123 in Arizona to 95 in Houston. He has been better since the All-Star break, so we should hold off final judgment on the signing for now, but the bottom line is that, at the moment, Walker is barely over replacement level on the season.
Biggest success: The starting pitching
Last season, the Royals got 151 starts from their top five starters. This season, they’ve had 12 pitchers make at least two starts and depending on when, and if, Michael Wacha returns before the end of the season, none of them might qualify for an ERA title. The injuries have affected the rotation performance during the second half, but it hasn’t fallen off a cliff, and for the season, Kansas City has MLB’s sixth-best rotation ERA. Whether it’s converting relievers (Kris Bubic), developing midlevel prospects (Noah Cameron) or identifying trade targets (Ryan Bergert), the Royals have become adept at finding rotation answers that fit their system.
Biggest failure: The offense
Bobby Witt Jr. remains a superstar. Maikel Garcia has been one of baseball’s most improved players. Vinnie Pasquantino remains a high-level run producer. But other than a midseason surge, the Royals have just not been able to score consistently enough to hang in the playoff chase, despite their elite pitching-and-defense combo. They’ve tried to paper over their holes with trades during the season, but the baseline for the lineup is just too low to fix on the fly.
Biggest success: Zach Neto
With a second straight five-WAR season, Neto has become one of baseball’s top shortstops at age 24. He sat out time early in the season and his numbers for the most part are similar to 2024, save for a non-trivial uptick in slugging. As he has matured, Neto has hit the ball harder more often, while still shining in the field and on the bases.
Biggest failure: Mike Trout
During the four-year period from 2021 to 2024, Trout averaged just 66.5 games per season. But on a per-162-game basis, he had rates of 46.3 homers, 109 runs and a 160 OPS+. If he could only stay in the lineup. With a move to DH this season, Trout has indeed been more available, but his impact has ebbed. Trout’s OPS+ is 115 — solid, but not Trout-like — and his slugging percentage is a shocking .417. Maybe it’s just the adjustment to DHing, which isn’t always smooth. Trout, after all, is still only 34 years old.
Biggest success: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Remember, we’re dealing with expectations here, so Shohei Ohtani doesn’t get credit in this context for doing the incredible things he already was doing. But it has been a banner season for Yamamoto, the most stable part of a deep Dodgers rotation that has again been riddled with injuries. Yamamoto has lived up to his pre-2024 hype but ramping up the volume, at least for a Dodgers pitcher. Already over the 162-inning minimum, Yamamoto is the first Dodgers pitcher to qualify for the ERA title since 2022.
Biggest failure: Health
Health has continued to be a general problem for the Dodgers, but it continues to be especially bad on the pitching side. L.A. is baseball’s deepest team but despite that, the injuries have come so frequently that the Dodgers have kept the transaction wire spinning all season. They’ve used 39 different pitchers, 16 of whom have started at least one game and 10 of whom have earned at least one save. How does manager Dave Roberts keep it all straight?
Biggest success: An emerging lineup
Between young players who have hit the ground running (Agustin Ramirez, Jakob Marsee) and young veterans improving as they enter their primes (Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards and, especially, Kyle Stowers), the Marlins increasingly look like a team that can field an exciting lineup in 2026.
Biggest failure: The rotation
Injuries over the past couple of years have rocked a talented group of Marlins starters. Other than a midseason surge when the Marlins’ pitchers got hot as a group, Miami’s starters have been lit up for most of 2025, ranking 28th in rotation ERA with the second-lowest total of quality starts. Yet the talent of Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer and an interesting wave of coming prospects remains tantalizing. Maybe next season it’ll all come back into focus.
Biggest success: Brice Turang
Turang’s ascension into an All-Star-caliber player is undeniable now that he has added power to an already full toolkit. He’s one of the game’s best second basemen, but more than that, he typifies Milwaukee’s transformation into MLB’s top regular-season club. He’s young, athletic, great on defense and gets on base. And he’s exciting, standing out as one of baseball’s most aesthetically pleasing players to watch.
Biggest failure: Reliever health?
Most everything has gone right for the Brewers, so it’s hard to term anything as a failure. Even the bullpen has been excellent over the course of the season. But a spate of late-season injuries has made things a wee bit more interesting as we edge toward the playoffs.
Biggest success: Joe Ryan
The Twins’ right-hander made the leap from solid midrotation starter to top-of-the-rotation ace this season. Ryan will finish with a career-high innings count and will likely match that volume with his best ERA+ (currently 126) and bWAR (4.5). Ryan’s season isn’t out of line with what he has done before on a per-inning basis, but he has done it more often. Now, as Ryan stands to earn a jump in pay per the arbitration system, we’ll see if the frugal Twins pay him or trade him.
Biggest failure: The midseason unloading
The Twins pulled the plug on their season at the trade deadline and the results since have not been pretty, on the field or off the field in terms of fan reaction. Since then, Minnesota has baseball’s second-worst record and has been drawing attendance figures lately indicative of a fan base that entered the season already annoyed by the Twins’ passive offseason. News that the franchise is no longer on the market hasn’t helped. The trajectory is bad.
Biggest success: Juan Soto
No, Soto hasn’t reinvented baseball during his first season as a Met, but he has been Juan Soto, and that has been a reminder of why he was so coveted. Soto is having a down season in the average category thanks to the vagaries of BABIP, but everything is vintage Soto. And it feels as if we forget this part: He still hasn’t turned 27. Soto has more seasons like this ahead of him, but he has some even better than this in his hip pocket. In any event, any concerns that Soto’s huge contract would be his ruination ought to be alleviated by now.
Biggest failure: The collapsing rotation
The Mets’ pitching freefall has been one of the most stunning stories of the season. Through the end of July, the Mets had baseball’s fifth-best rotation ERA (3.44). The starters ranked 27th in quality starts and 25th in innings, so they weren’t going deep, but they were effective while out there. Since then, New York’s starters have a 5.40 ERA (24th), further taxing a bullpen that has arguably been just as bad or worse. The avatar is Kodai Senga, who went from Cy Young candidate to minor leaguer in about six weeks. Maybe the rookie trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat will save the day, but this is not how the Mets drew it up.
Biggest success: Bronx bombing
This isn’t a perfect Yankees team, but they’ve bashed their way back into the World Series picture in a very literal way. A stunning 59% of the Yankees’ runs this season have come via the home run. When Anthony Volpe hits his next homer, the Yankees will feature a regular lineup in which every slot is occupied by a player with at least 20 homers this season. That includes Ryan McMahon, who hit most of his dingers for Colorado, but it’s still going to be amazing to see.
Biggest failure: Devin Williams
Across the past three seasons before coming to New York, Williams gave up 26 earned runs over 148 games with a 1.66 ERA. In his first Yankees season, he has given up 33 earned runs in 61 games with a 5.30 ERA. With a strikeout rate down around 5% off his career figure and 10% from last year, Williams just hasn’t been the same pitcher, and as the season has progressed, the numbers just keep getting worse.
Biggest success: Kyle Schwarber
Already one of baseball’s most dangerous sluggers, at 32 Schwarber has never been better. He already has joined Ryan Howard as the only Phillies in the 50-homer club and leads the majors with 128 RBIs, 24 above his previous career best. He has done this with his best strikeout rate in six years and his typically high walk rate. Good timing, too: Schwarber will be a free agent this winter.
Biggest failure: Aaron Nola
Nola has always been a little up and down, but his downs have never been like his injury- and performance-plagued 2025 showing. Nola’s 6.44 ERA over 15 starts has him under replacement level, and while the Phillies’ overall rotation has been dynamite, Nola’s struggles are more pressing with Zack Wheeler gone for the season. Nola has shown flashes and remains in the rotation, but he’s running out of time before a playoff season that the Phillies will enter as one of the favored teams.
Biggest success: Paul Skenes
Yes, we expected Skenes to be this good, but who else are we going to put here? Skenes has been even better in Year 2, somehow bettering (so far) his sub-2.00 rookie ERA, dropping from 1.96 to 1.92 even while ramping up his innings total. The Pirates are 27-17 when Skenes starts so far in his career, which translates to a 99-win team over 162 games. In the non-Skenes games, they’ve won at a rate of 69 games per 162. He’s pretty good.
Biggest failure: An anemic offense
The Pirates’ lack of any kind of spending or success in developing hitters has left them with a tragic attack. The median run total for a team in a game is four. Let’s say any time a team scores more than four, it’s a win for the offense and a loss for the defense. Finishing at exactly four runs represents a push, or a tie. Using this framework, the Pirates’ pitchers have a record of 77-55-18, giving them the fifth-best winning percentage in the majors. The hitters are 44-88-18, ranking last. That’s your 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Biggest success: Winning the deadline
The Padres haven’t launched since A.J. Preller’s frenetic activity at the trade deadline, but his work then was still crucial. Rather than finishing the roster as Preller probably hoped, the newcomers have helped cover for drop-offs and injuries from those already on hand. That has been especially true for the bullpen, where Jason Adam was injured and Jeremiah Estrada has hit some speed bumps. But acquisition Mason Miller has been even more electric than expected. Meanwhile, Freddy Fermin has solidified the catcher spot and Ramon Laureano, brought in to raise the floor of a struggling outfield slot, has been San Diego’s best percentage hitter since arriving.
Biggest failure: Xander Bogaerts
At 32, Bogaerts has posted his second straight subpar offensive season. His OPS+ (98) is up from last season’s 92 but remains well off the 130-ish level he reached in Boston. The change in ballparks has been more severe for Bogaerts than expected. His career slugging percentage at Fenway Park is .496 but is just .402 at Petco Park. This season, only three of Bogaerts’ 10 homers have come at home.
Biggest success: A revamped lineup
The Giants were subtractors at the trade deadline, particularly when it came to emptying out the back of the bullpen. Yet San Francisco remains on the cusp of a wild-card slot, and it’s not all because the Mets went into a spiral. The Giants have featured a top-10 offense since the end of July, featuring a stable everyday lineup that has coalesced into a nice unit. After a slow start, Willy Adames has come on strong, Rafael Devers had adapted to his post-Boston life, and Matt Chapman has been mashing. A new outfield mix featuring ex-Met Drew Gilbert and Jung Hoo Lee has become a gas to watch. The Giants are fun.
Biggest failure: Defensive range
You have to get specific, because the Giants’ overall defensive metrics are above average because of Patrick Bailey‘s off-the-charts work behind the plate. But out in the field, the Giants rank 27th in Statcast’s outs above average, a disappointing result for a club with flashy defenders up the middle and at third base with Chapman.
Biggest success: Cal Raleigh
This is perhaps the most obvious selection on the board. Raleigh is having one of the most shockingly historical seasons we’ve ever seen. To be sure, Raleigh had been plenty good before this season, one of the best all-around backstops in the game. But this? The best homer season ever by a catcher? The best by a switch-hitter — even Mickey Mantle? It’s unreal. Using the FanGraphs version of WAR, which is more laudatory of Raleigh’s framing skills, his 2025 total (8.0) ranks seventh all time among primary catchers, and he’s still going.
Biggest failure: The rotation
Again, let’s remember that we’re keeping preseason expectation at the forefront of our minds. Seattle’s rotation has been solid, very consistent. The M’s rank 17th in rotation ERA (4.08) and fifth in quality starts. But before the season, Seattle figured to have a top-five rotation at the very least. The group was supposed to be the strength of the roster. Bryan Woo has been great, but everyone else has been worse than projected, either because of injuries, performance drop-off or both. Yet the Mariners regained first place with two weeks to go. If the rotation had been what we thought it would be, they would have already clinched the AL West.
Biggest success: Matthew Liberatore
Well, we have to put something down. Frankly, even though the Cardinals have managed to stay around baseball’s middle, this has felt like a disheartening season. With just a little boost from the front office, the low bar of postseason contention in this year’s NL might have been cleared. St. Louis hasn’t received much in terms of breakout performances, though some of the younger players have shown progress. That pretty much describes Liberatore, the touted prospect St. Louis acquired way back on Jan. 9, 2020, from Tampa Bay for Randy Arozarena. Until 2025, Liberatore hadn’t been able to establish himself as a rotation regular, but he has made 27 starts and stayed within shouting distance of league average. His strikeout rates don’t scream “untapped upside!” but you never know.
Biggest failure: Season approach
Nothing about St. Louis baseball has made much sense for about a year. If the Cardinals had truly reset, that at least would have been a clear direction. As it stands, it’s still completely unclear why the Cardinals didn’t just try to build the best possible roster they could for the 2025 season. After this finally ends, the baton will pass to Chaim Bloom and perhaps he can paint a more coherent portrait. Let the Ray-ification of the Redbirds begin.
Biggest success: Junior Caminero
This has been a mildly disappointing season for Tampa Bay, but not so for its powerhouse, 21-year-old third baseman. Caminero’s 44 homers already rank second in Rays history, and he needs only two more to tie Carlos Pena’s 18-year-old franchise record. The only other age-21 player to reach 44 homers is Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews, who hit 47 in 1953. Caminero still has a shot at that mark.
Biggest failure: Close games
This has been a strange season for Tampa Bay, and not only because the Rays have had to call the Yankees’ spring training facility their home park. Tampa Bay has had a couple of stretches where it looked like one of baseball’s top teams but has been thwarted by close losses — which is the antithesis of what the last few good Rays teams have been like. This season, Tampa Bay is just 33-40 in games decided by one or two runs. Because of that, the Rays are on pace to fall 7.3 wins shy of the record predicted by their run differential, tied with Texas for the biggest shortfall in baseball.
Biggest success: Overcoming injuries
Over their past 20 games coming out of the weekend, the Rangers had won 15, the best last-20 mark in baseball. This has allowed Texas to close its sizable gap with Houston and eke closer to the Mariners. The postseason remains very much in play. During that 20-game stretch, Texas got five games from Corey Seager, zero from Marcus Semien, 10 from Adolis Garcia and zero from Evan Carter. Ace starter Nathan Eovaldi made his last appearance of the season the day before that 20-game window began. The more beat-up the Rangers are, the more they seem to thrive.
Biggest failure: Home offense
The Rangers have just a .676 OPS at Globe Life Field, while they’re at .724 on the road. Last season, they were 34 points better at home. The season before, when the Rangers won the World Series, they were 107 points better. It is a baffling thing. In his first Texas season, DH Joc Pederson has hit .155 with a .559 OPS at home. He hasn’t been great on the road, either, but his OPS is 103 points better while traveling. All of this is too bad for the hitters, but while bemoaning their fate at GLF, we should also note that the Rangers have been baseball’s best home team this season (by run differential) thanks to an absurdly-low 2.77 home ERA by the pitching staff.
Biggest success: Ernie Clement
No, really. The Blue Jays have the AL’s best record. Among all teams, they are 10th in OPS+ and 15th in ERA+, solid but not No. 1-seed solid. There are some facts that align with the standing — a 50-25 home record, and a 40-28 mark in games decided by one or two runs. Toronto leads all teams in FanGraphs’ DEF metric, suggesting the Jays have a strong claim as baseball’s best defensive team. For all that, it just feels as if there is something intangible going on with this club, and no one typifies that more than Clement, a jack-of-all trades infielder who contributes on both offense and defense. Clement is a very different kind of player than Ben Zobrist — and not as good — but there is something reminiscent of Clement on Toronto to Zobrist’s roles with championship teams in Kansas City and Chicago last decade.
Biggest failure: Jeff Hoffman
It’s hard to believe Toronto’s record in close games is as good as it is given Hoffman’s up-and-down season as the Blue Jays’ primary closer. Hoffman has 30 saves but he has blown seven games and somehow has a 9-7 win-loss record, which isn’t the kind of thing you expect to see from a 2025 closer. Heck, if he blows a couple of more saves that the Jays rescue him from, he could tie for Toronto’s team lead in wins. Seriously, though, Hoffman has been barely replacement level this season. He has been on a nice roll of late, until he gave up a ninth-inning homer to Houston’s Yainer Diaz that resulted in his seventh loss last Wednesday. If Toronto’s feel-good season is going to last deep into October, the Jays really need Hoffman to be part of the happy tidings.
Biggest success: James Wood
It hasn’t been a happy season for the Nats, who are likely to lose more games than the 91 they dropped in 2023 and 2024. That’s not how rebuilding is supposed to work. Wood has been the best player in a bad situation, adding some power to his solid rookie season percentages and improving his defensive metrics. He has struggled at home, though, and his first-half OPS — a star-like .915 — has dropped to .663 since the All-Star Game. Even the Nats’ good news is bad.
Biggest failure: The rebuild
It will continue, of course, because there is no other choice. But the post-championship reset embarked upon by the old regime of Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez is officially kaput, and those two were put out of work on the same day in July. This offseason represents a fresh start for a franchise that very much needs one.
Only three weeks into the season, Notre Dame and Clemson have dropped out of the playoff picture with two losses each. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame (0-2) now has a 6% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. Clemson (1-2) has a 4% chance.
That makes room for somebody else.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with “Would be in” status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with “Work to do” is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which would mean a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that “Would be out” is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
SEC
Spotlight: Texas. In the latest top 12 projection, the No. 12 Longhorns would be out of the playoff to make room for projected American champion South Florida. Let that sink in for a minute: The most hyped team in America this preseason is now projected to watch the playoff from home. ESPN Analytics gives Texas the fourth-best chance to reach the SEC championship game (26%) behind Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. The Longhorns’ season-opening road loss to Ohio State isn’t the problem — it’s the product on the field. Quarterback Arch Manning has a QBR of 49.6, No. 88 in the country. He completed 44% of his passes against UTEP on Saturday and threw an interception in the end zone. It’s not just Manning. Penalties. Third-down conversions. Red zone efficiency (or lack thereof). ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win each of its remaining games except the Nov. 15 trip to Georgia. If that comes to fruition, and Texas finishes as a two-loss SEC team without a conference title, the Longhorns will likely be in the selection committee’s top 12. Whether they are seeded in the playoff, though, depends on if they can improve enough to be ranked in the top 10, where there’s no danger of getting knocked out in favor of the fourth- and fifth-highest-ranked conference champions that might be ranked outside of the top 12.
The enigma: Ole Miss. The Rebels have won back-to-back SEC games against Kentucky and Arkansas, and now have the second-best chance to reach the conference championship game behind Georgia, according to ESPN Analytics. They also have the fourth-best chance (60.1%) to reach the playoff behind Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon, but they’re about to get into the heart of their most difficult stretch. Ole Miss might have a sneaky tricky game on Saturday when it hosts Tulane, which is competing for a playoff spot and would get a huge résumé boost from beating the Rebels on the road. If the Rebels win, they’d have a critical head-to-head win against what could be the American champs, which would keep them ahead of the Green Wave on Selection Day. There’s no break after that before hosting LSU on Sept. 27. ESPN’s FPI projects Ole Miss will win each of its remaining games, though, except for the Oct. 18 trip to Georgia. If that unfolds, and the Rebels have wins against Tulane, LSU and Oklahoma, they should be in the playoff — and possibly see Georgia again in the SEC title game.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Illinois. The Illini are here for a second straight week because at No. 11 in the weekly prediction, they’d get elbowed out during the playoff seeding process for projected Big 12 champ Iowa State. The Cyclones would be guaranteed a spot as one of the committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions, but because they are ranked outside of the top 12 — along with projected American champ South Florida — the teams ranked No. 11 and No. 12 would be replaced. Illinois has a huge opportunity looming Saturday at Indiana, where it can further assert itself as a contender in both the Big Ten and the playoff conversation. Indiana, which was featured in this space as last week’s enigma, is also 3-0 with a shot to return to the CFP for a second straight season under coach Curt Cignetti. If Illinois wins, its chance to reach the Big Ten title game will increase to 14%. If the Illini lose, that drops to 3%. According to ESPN Analytics, Indiana has a 62.8% chance to win the game. It’s the start of a season-defining stretch for Illinois, as ESPN Analytics projects it will lose three of its next four games (at Indiana, Sept. 27 vs. USC and Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State).
The enigma: USC. ESPN’s computers like the Trojans, projecting USC to win every game except for its Nov. 22 trip to Oregon. USC has quietly been winning in the shadows of the Big Ten favorites — Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon — but it avoids both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions during the regular season. That doesn’t mean its schedule is easy. USC travels to Illinois, hosts Michigan and travels to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18 — a team that is under enormous pressure to win out. If the computers are right, though, and USC is undefeated heading into Autzen to face the Ducks in the regular-season finale, the Big Ten narrative could get flipped in Lincoln Riley’s fourth season. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC has the fifth-best chance in the country to reach the CFP (57.9%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC
Would be out: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Following its win against Clemson, Georgia Tech now has the second-best chance to reach the ACC title game (39.9%) behind Miami (67.8%). ESPN Analytics projects the Jackets will win each of their remaining games except for the regular-season finale against rival Georgia — a playoff team they pushed to eight overtimes last year. With two September wins against Power 4 teams Colorado and Clemson, Georgia Tech isn’t flying under the radar, but it still falls under the “more work to do” category below because its best wins came against teams that are now 1-2. If Georgia Tech wins the ACC, it’s a playoff lock, but if it doesn’t — and its only two losses are to Georgia and whatever ranked opponent it faces in the ACC title game (Florida State or Miami?) — the committee will have a debate about the two-loss ACC runner-up. Georgia Tech’s number of wins against ranked opponents depends on if Clemson can get itself together. The Yellow Jackets currently have the 63rd-toughest remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They don’t play the ACC’s toughest teams — Miami, Florida State or SMU. Speaking of the Mustangs …
The enigma: SMU. The Mustangs have a much more difficult path to the playoff than last year. SMU already lost a tough, double-overtime home game to Baylor in Week 2. Beyond that, it has two wins against Missouri State (a 1-2 Conference USA team) and FCS opponent East Texas A&M (0-2). So, the picture is still blurry for last year’s ACC runner-up. It will get much clearer on Saturday at TCU, a game that will create separation for the winner with a head-to-head nonconference tiebreaker. ESPN Analytics gives TCU a 67.4% chance to win, and if SMU goes 2-2 in September, a second straight playoff appearance will be highly unlikely. A Mustangs victory on Saturday, though, could wind up being one of the better nonconference wins of the season and help SMU compete for an at-large spot. It still plays Clemson and Miami during the regular season, and ESPN Analytics gives SMU less than a 50% chance to win each of those games.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, SMU
Would be out: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging on here, but by only a thread after a choppy performance against Arkansas State. Iowa State was clinging to a 17-16 lead in the fourth quarter before adding a late touchdown, and its position on the bubble is similarly precarious. ESPN Analytics gives the Cyclones the sixth-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (15.3%), but here’s the thing — there are seven teams in the Big 12 with at least a 10% chance to play for the conference title. Iowa State continues to lead the league in the weekly projection because its wins against Iowa and a beleaguered K-State team are still better than what the other contenders have on their résumés. At least so far. The Cyclones have a week off before hosting Arizona.
The enigma: Utah. Iowa State is leading the résumé debate, but Utah and Texas Tech have looked like the better teams against weaker competition. We’ll learn which to take more seriously Saturday when they play each other. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah currently has the best chance to make the Big 12 title game (40.1%) and win the league (24.6%). Saturday, though, will be the Utes’ first real test. Utah’s wins have come against a UCLA team that just fired its head coach, Cal Poly and Wyoming. But the Utes have scored at least 30 points in each game while allowing no more than 10. If Utah beats the Red Raiders, it will have a much-needed cushion for a tricky road trip to BYU on Oct. 18. If Utah wins the Big 12, it will lock up a playoff spot, but if the Utes have two losses and no title, they’ll have a difficult time impressing the committee with the rest of their schedule.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Iowa State
Work to do: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Kansas
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. Following an 0-2 start, the Irish dropped out of the most recent top 12 prediction. The Irish no longer control their playoff path; they need to win out and get some help from other contenders losing. It’s not impossible, but it’s more difficult as an independent. Notre Dame doesn’t have the chance to earn a guaranteed spot as a conference champion, so it has to impress the committee with its 12-game season. And its two best chances against ranked opponents are already lost. Notre Dame’s chances of reaching the playoff dropped to 6% after its home loss to Texas A&M.
Group of 5
Spotlight: South Florida. The Allstate Playoff Predictor likes Memphis, giving the Tigers the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the playoff (27.5%), but the selection committee doesn’t look ahead. It looks back, and so far, South Florida’s wins against Boise State and Florida still trump what any other Group of 5 contender has on its résumé. It didn’t help that South Florida lost at Miami in convincing fashion, but the Bulls don’t have to beat the Canes to reach the playoff — they have to win the American. This will settle itself on the field when South Florida plays at Memphis on Oct. 25, but the Bulls don’t play Tulane during the regular season. And the Green Wave might be the biggest threat to South Florida’s place in the playoff conversation.
The enigma: Tulane. The Green Wave have a chance to usurp South Florida as the Group of 5’s top playoff contender Saturday at Ole Miss. If Tulane can knock off a top-15 SEC team to add to wins against Northwestern and Duke, the Green Wave will have the best résumé in the Group of 5. Tulane also travels to Memphis on a Friday night (Nov. 7). ESPN Analytics projects those two teams will meet in the American championship game, with Tulane having the second-best chance to win the conference (21.5%). Where it gets interesting is if the Green Wave don’t — and their only loss is in the conference championship game. No other Group of 5 team would have as strong a case for an at-large bid without a conference title as Tulane because no Group of 5 contender has a more difficult game than Tulane’s trip to Ole Miss. ESPN Analytics gives the Rebels an 86.8% chance to win. That result would make winning the league imperative for the Green Wave.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Tulane, UNLV, Navy, Memphis
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Adam Rittenberg
Two teams are set to meet Saturday night in front of a full-throated, sold-out crowd, with NBC broadcasting the game to a national audience.
One team made the College Football Playoff in 2024, and remains a lightning rod for reaction around the sport. The other won 10 games last season, finished No. 16 in the AP poll and returns an accomplished group of stars on both sides of the ball. Both coaches have won championships and individual awards, including a sweep of the 2024 national coaching honors for one, and neither is boring behind a microphone. Both teams invested greatly in their quarterbacks, veteran transfers with NFL aspirations and are featuring two of the nation’s top pass rushers. They enter this week ranked Nos. 13 and 16, respectively, in colleague Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, ahead of LSU, Michigan and others.
There are enough boxes checked to place Saturday’s matchup on the national radar, capturing interest from beyond the two fan bases, their shared region and even their stretched-out conference. But here’s the twist: The teams are the Indiana Hoosiers and Illinois Fighting Illini. Indiana won a team-record 11 games last season but still has the most losses (715) in FBS history. Illinois is seeking consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in team history, as well as its first AP top 10 finish since 1989. Illinois-Indiana hasn’t been a matchup of ranked teams since 1950 — “I was shocked at that,” Illinois coach Bret Bielema said — and Saturday will mark the first game of AP top-20 teams in Bloomington, Indiana, since 1987.
The pairing of teams might not scream national showcase, even though the evidence behind the pairing does.
“When a newbie like us breaks into the status quo, that’s going to create some waves,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti told ESPN. “A team [that] comes out of nowhere.”
Games like No. 9 Illinois visiting No. 19 Indiana on Saturday night are taking on new and greater meaning in the expanded College Football Playoff era. The outcome in Bloomington will impact the Big Ten’s playoff pecking order, which Indiana cracked in 2024 but remains heavy with brand-name programs such as No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Oregon, all CFP incumbents.
Those involved in these matchups don’t minimize their significance.
“Big,” Bielema said of the Indiana game this summer. “Huge.”
But do mega matchups featuring, for lack of a better term, typically middle-class teams get the billing they deserve? Does the value placed on them vary because of their leagues or other factors? What’s clear is that these types of games are only going to increase, as more teams — regardless of their history — are set to enter the CFP spotlight.
“We don’t do a good enough job of talking about that next tier of teams,” Nebraska Cornhuskers coach Matt Rhule told ESPN. “Illinois finishes 9-3 [last season] and they’re not in the same conversation as where I thought they should have been. If it’s not one of the premier names, people kind of downplay it a little bit.
“Sometimes, we just don’t recognize how good those next teams are.”
Jump to:
More under-the-radar games
For decades, the Big Ten operated under the “Big Two-Little Eight” label, as the league championship and a coveted Rose Bowl berth almost always came down to Ohio State and Michigan and their showdown in late November. Other teams began breaking the Buckeyes-Wolverines stranglehold in the 1980s — Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State — and the pattern continued into the 1990s with Wisconsin and Northwestern.
The past 25 years have included stretches when Ohio State or Michigan owned the spotlight — the Buckeyes won or shared five straight Big Ten titles beginning in 2005 and won four straight from 2017 to 2020, and Michigan followed with three straight conference championships and a national title in 2023. But other programs have had their moments, including Indiana’s incredible CFP run last season, Cignetti’s first as Hoosiers coach.
The challenge for attention and respect remains, though, for Big Ten teams without the historic brand recognition of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, and more recently, Oregon. The SEC also has a group of heavyweights — Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee and now Oklahoma and Texas — but has more effectively promoted other teams with lower national profiles, such as Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Missouri.
“The biggest thing in that league, you really feel empowered to talk about SEC football,” said Bielema, who coached Arkansas from 2013 to 2017. “From the direction the commissioner gives you to the ADs to really the media, they kind of steer you down that, ‘We’re better than everybody else’ conversation. They really believe what they say, which is awesome. I just go back to, the last two or three years have been different in [the Big Ten] because of parity, because of the competition in our league.”
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti told ESPN that a goal of an expanded CFP proposal that’s heavier on automatic-qualifying spots — the so-called 4-4-2-2-1 model — is to reduce or remove the perception factor from matchups like Illinois-Indiana. Under the proposal, if the winner of Saturday’s game finishes third or fourth in the Big Ten behind two bigger-brand programs, it would automatically be in the CFP.
“They’re trying to say, ‘Oh, your upper echelon’s this, and your middle is this, and your bottom is this,’ but let’s go figure that out by playing the games and not burn these guys with the reputation of what happens when you lose a game because your program has been like this 10 years ago, so therefore, we don’t give you the benefit of doubt,” Petitti told ESPN in July. “That stuff happens, and we’ve got to get away from that.”
The remedy for respect is simple, coaches say: win the middle-class matchups and keep moving up.
“You look at what we did in 2019, going 11-2 and we were ranked in the top seven in the country,” Minnesota Golden Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said. “You get what you earn. When you’re winning eight, nine games at Minnesota, that’s really good, but when you’re comparing it to who’s in the playoff, it’s not as high as that.”
Several Big Ten coaches noted that the locations and demographics of the two conferences also factor into how certain programs and matchups are viewed.
“That’s conditioning over the years,” Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. “Again, the saying, ‘It just means more,’ there’s some reality to that, as we all know, because of location. That’s the only show in town, right? And I get that, and I understand that, but at the end of the day, it still comes down to what happens on the field.”
Added Cignetti: “You get respect when you win.”
In addition to the Illinois-Indiana clash, here are six other games featuring teams with similar profiles that have CFP implications and will provide an interesting temperature gauge with national interest.
SATURDAY
What’s at stake: A potential leg up in a crowded Big 12 title race with several other contenders (Arizona State, Kansas State) already having a loss or two.
Why you should care: Any reputable list of best programs never to have made the CFP would include Utah, which won Pac-12 championships in 2021 and 2022 and had AP top-4 finishes in 2004 and 2008. The Utes’ entry into the Big 12 was spoiled by quarterback injuries, but they have fixed the position with dynamic dual-threat transfer Devon Dampier, who belongs on the Heisman Trophy radar after recording 628 passing yards, 198 rushing yards and 7 passing touchdowns in his first three games as a Ute. Texas Tech, meanwhile, won the offseason in the Big 12 with historic investments in its roster, courtesy of super booster Cody Campbell. The Red Raiders have said anything less than their first trip to the Big 12 championship game will be a disappointment. They’re off to a blistering start, outscoring their first three opponents 174-35.
What’s at stake: A Tulane win would cement the top nonleague profile for the Group of 5 CFP contender, while Ole Miss can help its (likely) CFP at-large résumé.
Why you should care: The matchup is outside of league play but still carries meaning for both sides. Tulane already has wins against Big Ten (Northwestern) and ACC (Duke) opponents, and can significantly increase its CFP chances by upsetting Ole Miss in Oxford. Jon Sumrall, a former Rebels assistant, likely will be the top Group of 5 coaching candidate this winter and could be choosing among SEC opportunities. Despite losing top running back Makhi Hughes to the transfer portal, Tulane is averaging 222 rushing yards per game, as BYU transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff has settled in nicely, especially as a runner. Ole Miss had the talent to reach the CFP in 2024 but might make the field this season, as it averages 44.7 points and 541.7 yards per game. The Rebels’ next three SEC games are against LSU (home), Georgia (road) and Oklahoma (road), but a win over Tulane will help their case for the CFP.
OCT. 4
What’s at stake: A potential 5-0 start and increased attention as a dark horse CFP contender in the Big Ten.
Why you should care: Nebraska fans might bristle at being grouped with some of the others here, but their team has fallen sharply from its national perch. The Huskers ended a seven-year bowl-less streak last season and are eying a significant step forward under coach Matt Rhule, who has overseen Year 3 breakthroughs at Temple (10-4 in 2015) and Baylor (11-3 in 2019). Sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola has looked very strong so far with eight touchdowns and no interceptions, while completing 76.6% of his passes. Michigan State also has seen development from its second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has 656 passing yards and 6 touchdowns on 71.6% of his attempts. Both teams added transfer wide receivers to assist their quarterbacks. Nebraska first must get through Michigan, and Michigan State has a late-night kickoff at USC, but wins by both will add spice to this game.
OCT. 25
What’s at stake: A path to the CFP in the deep but seemingly wide-open SEC, and potentially the label of being this season’s Indiana.
Why you should care: The latest AP poll includes 11 SEC teams (five in the top 11), but no squad seems invincible, as Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M struggled defensively Saturday, while LSU is (ducks from Brian Kelly) still looking for a consistent run game. Texas, meanwhile, is trying to unlock quarterback Arch Manning‘s potential. The number of CFP spots creates lanes for teams like Vanderbilt, which has consecutive 24-point road wins against Virginia Tech and South Carolina, and can dream bigger than it ever has with quarterback Diego Pavia at the helm. Pavia leads a balanced offense, and Nick Rinaldi headlines a playmaking defense that has 23 tackles for loss. Missouri has been closer to the CFP, going 24-5 since the start of the 2023 season with a top-10 finish and a Cotton Bowl title in 2023. The Tigers’ transfer additions of quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy are working out very well so far.
NOV. 1
What’s at stake: Possibly becoming this year’s version of SMU in the ACC, especially with preseason favorite Clemson struggling (thanks in part to Georgia Tech).
Why you should care: Georgia Tech’s latest big-game upset win Saturday against Clemson stamped the Yellow Jackets as a team to watch in the CFP chase. Coach Brent Key’s bunch has seven wins against ranked opponents as an underdog during his tenure. The problem for Georgia Tech has been winning games like this, which might fly under the radar a bit. NC State has already beaten two ACC teams — the Virginia victory didn’t count in the conference standings — and has a fairly manageable league schedule before hosting the Yellow Jackets. These teams feature two of the more exciting offensive backfield tandems in Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes, and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey and running back Hollywood Smothers.
NOV. 8
What’s at stake: An important November win that could catapult one team toward the Big 12 championship game.
Why you should care: The Big 12 contender pool is predictably deep, although the league ultimately wants some separation to increase the chances for multiple CFP qualifiers. This week’s game in Salt Lake should provide some clarity, and it’s possible Iowa State and TCU are in different positions by the time they meet in Fort Worth, Texas. But ISU already has two wins against Power 4 opponents and is 2-0 in road or neutral-site games. Quarterback Rocco Becht is completing 65% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and only 1 interception, as he features tight ends Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer in the passing game. The Cyclones’ defense is once again stifling, allowing 14.3 points per game and generating pressure from different sources. TCU flexed in its opener at North Carolina, and quarterback Josh Hoover is completing 76.2% of his passes and getting some help in the backfield from UTSA transfer Kevorian Barnes and others.
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