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  • Jeff Passan, ESPNMar 21, 2024, 10:00 AM ET

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      ESPN MLB insider
      Author of “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports”

IN THE IMMEDIATE aftermath of the Zoom call Monday night that threw the Major League Baseball Players Association into chaos, a veteran player, stunned at the mutiny that had unfolded in front of him, said to himself, “What the f— was that?” Over nearly three hours, he said, he had witnessed years of pent-up frustration from player leaders unleashed on MLBPA leadership. And one moment at the end of the meeting burned itself into his mind.

Earlier in the afternoon, a coordinated effort by players had unfolded to replace Bruce Meyer, the union’s deputy executive director and lead labor negotiator, with Harry Marino, the lawyer who had organized minor league players who eventually would become members of the MLBPA. Near the end of the call, the matter had been put to an informal poll, and a significant majority of the dozens of players in attendance raised their hands in favor of change. Faced with his hand-picked No. 2 receiving a no-confidence vote from a large portion of the union’s executive board, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark told the group that it was his decision whether Meyer would be removed from his job.

He was not wrong. Union rules grant Clark, not the players, the right to hire and fire. But the sentiment espoused by Clark in that moment roiled players throughout the game Tuesday and Wednesday, enveloping the union with the sort of palace intrigue typically reserved for a Sunday night HBO series. The veteran was among a large swath of players troubled by Clark’s comment after hearing him say consistently, over more than a decade running the MLBPA, that players run the union. The fallout cast questions across the rank and file not just about Meyer’s murky future but Clark’s long-term viability as executive director.

The call ended with no clarity on the future of union leadership. Backers of Clark have since rallied around him, attempting to whip support from players for what they believe will be a showdown for control of the MLBPA. While Clark could remain in charge of the union he has guided for more than a decade, the power play has damaged him considerably — and player leadership does wield the power to unilaterally vote him out of the position. If they do, Marino, the 33-year-old who blindsided the baseball establishment with a daring power play, could find himself not as Clark’s deputy but in the top role himself, though he’ll have to work to sway player leaders who were left in the dark about the move and know little about him.

Interviews with more than two dozen people involved in the fight — union officials, the outsiders seeking to unseat them, players on the union’s executive board and throughout the league and influence-wielding agents — offered a portrait of a union in flux amid an offseason of lower-than-expected spending on free agents. The cores of each side have been firmly established: union leadership, those skeptical of Marino and powerful agent Scott Boras advocating for status quo, while outspoken major leaguers, all of the minor league player leaders and influential player agents back the ouster of Meyer and, perhaps by extension, Clark.

Long trumpeted as the strongest union in America, the MLBPA is facing a seminal choice that will help guide the game’s future. With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire Dec. 1, 2026, the MLBPA has plenty of time to rebuild solidarity and come equipped for its quinquennial clash with MLB. Which direction it takes might depend on which party can sell the players on its vision.

“WHY NOW?” another player leader asked Tuesday. MLB’s 2024 season was hours from beginning when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres faced off in Seoul, and here stood the union in the throes of internal war.

There were several reasons for the urgency, but one was simply the calendar. With the end of spring training near, those who wanted change feared that players would lose interest in union politics during the season. It happened six years ago, when a group of players frustrated with a historically slow free agent market tried to form a coalition to remove Clark, the former All-Star first baseman who became the first ex-player to run the union when he took over in December 2013 after the death of Michael Weiner. It fizzled out, and Clark — who had led negotiations on the collective bargaining agreement in 2016 widely panned by players — pledged to hire help.

In came Meyer, a veteran attorney who had worked for the players’ associations of the three other major men’s professional sports. He arrived with a bulldog attitude and desire to fight the league and win back much of what the union had lost financially in 2016. Almost immediately Meyer rubbed MLB the wrong way — a point he wore with pride.

Meyer refused to accede when MLB wanted to cut players’ pay in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and commissioner Rob Manfred wound up implementing a 60-game season when the sides couldn’t strike a return-to-play deal. The hostility amplified after the 2021 season, when MLB locked the players out for 99 days. The eventual collective bargaining agreement won players a $20 million boost on the lowest threshold of the luxury tax, a 25% raise on the minimum salary, a $50 million bonus pool for arbitration-eligible players, a draft lottery to prevent tanking and incentives to not keep rookies in the minor leagues to manipulate their service time. While the executive subcommittee — one filled with Boras clients in five of the eight slots — voted 8-0 against the deal, a large majority of players supported it.

Two years later, though, the seeds of disillusionment that sprouted in those negotiations are in full bloom. After two robust free agencies following the latest CBA, the market this year slowed dramatically, from $3.9 billion guaranteed last year to $2.9 billion, and left veteran players without jobs on the eve of the season. Players have whispered about the lack of a clearly defined plan to outfox MLB’s enormous and effective labor relations unit, as well as the large salaries and travel expenses of the union’s leaders, which have only grown in recent years. The most recent defeat for some players was the San Francisco Giants’ release of J.D. Davis, the veteran infielder who received just $1.15 million of his $6.9 million salary because the collective bargaining agreement didn’t guarantee deals won in salary arbitration cases.

On top of all that, a narrative about a working relationship between Meyer and Boras has taken root. No firm evidence buttressed the notion, and both parties denied it, but among players and particularly the agents who competed with Boras, the perception hardened into a reality, though one that longtime executive subcommittee member Andrew Miller said he did not see.

“I wish it never got to this point of back and forth,” Miller told ESPN. “I was not always on the same page with Bruce, but he’s been a professional. I believe what he’s been quoted as saying about it not being true. It’s not something I ever saw that was worrying to me.”

The thought of some of those seeking change: Taking out Meyer could wound Boras, who is in the midst of an offseason when the free agent markets collapsed for numerous stars he represented. If Boras was vulnerable, Meyer could be the proxy to attack him.

If any of this change was going to happen, it needed to do so quickly. And Marino and his supporters believed he was the one to spur it on.

A left-handed reliever, Marino had spent two seasons in the early 2010s in the Arizona and Baltimore organizations. The paltry salaries paid to minor league players appalled him, and after going to law school at the University of Virginia, he left a law-firm job to attempt what no one previously had the gumption to try: unionizing minor league players. As the executive director of Advocates for Minor Leaguers, Marino married moral arguments with social-media savvy to affect change, securing minor league players housing paid for by teams. The work caught the eye of the MLBPA, which provided funding to the group, and Clark’s support of Advocates’ efforts — both offering advice to Marino or talking with players — paved a partnership that would ultimately imperil his job.

With minor leaguers prepared to unionize, the MLBPA offered to bring them under its umbrella and form a minor league unit alongside its big league group. It would be one of Clark’s signature achievements as executive director. He had toiled for seven years in the minor leagues. He lived the grind. He knew that unionization would drastically improve the lives of more than 5,500 players.

In early September 2022, the MLBPA sent out union-authorization cards. Soon thereafter, MLB voluntarily recognized the minor league unit, and Clark told The Wall Street Journal about Marino: “His consistency to the cause is as high as anyone that I’ve been around. It comes through loud and clear in how he fights for players and how he’s been willing to engage on any and all of the issues that are front and center. … [I]f this was going to become a possibility, Harry is someone you want to be a part of the equation.”

The minor league unit received 34 seats — one player from each team and four subcommittee members — to join the 38 major league players on the executive board. It bewildered some union officials, who worried that giving 47% of voting power to players who hadn’t spent a day in the major leagues could lead to a disastrous outcome. Especially if someone like Marino mobilized the group.

In recent weeks, he did. Marino, who joined the MLBPA as an assistant general counsel following the unionization efforts, left the union in July 2023, three months after negotiating the first minor league collective bargaining agreement. Though he had clashed with Meyer, with whom he worked on the agreement, and other union officials, he remained on the radar of a group of major league player leaders impressed by his work with minor leaguers.

They reached out to him earlier this year with a plea: Come fix the union. The coalition seeking change spanned players present and past. Former players such as Daniel Murphy, an executive subcommittee member in 2020, backed new leadership, telling ESPN on Wednesday: “Whether they get uprooted from their positions is not up to me, but I think guys are finally seeing the truth.”

With widespread minor league support, Marino knew he’d need a wider swath of current big leaguers. If he could map out a compelling vision, his supporters believed, MLB players were bound to join a campaign to replace Meyer. During spring training, Marino held secret meetings with player representatives in Arizona and Florida, avoiding Boras clients out of fear that they would kibosh his efforts. In recent days, he outlined his strategy in a one-page document distributed to some players and obtained by ESPN. In it, he criticized the MLBPA’s “mediocre staff and lack of clear bargaining strategy,” said it had “unproductive relationships with both the agent community and the league” and denounced its “inexcusable spending habits.” He pledged to “shift power back to the members” through “informed recommendations backed by data and reasoning” and “trim the waste and excess,” writing: “Our job is to make you rich, not the other way around.”

Marino also laid out a plan for his first 250 days as part of union leadership. He would hire an outside firm to perform an audit on the MLBPA’s finances, conduct a survey of players to learn about their issues with the union and bargaining priorities, and begin a nationwide search for senior leadership and a collective bargaining team “under supervision of the Executive Board.” At the MLBPA’s board meeting in November 2024, the document said, Marino would introduce the new hires and present goals and strategy for bargaining, propose a new budget and offer a plan for better communication.

His consortium grew, and by Saturday, a majority of player leaders — major leagues and minor leagues combined — expressed privately they were in favor of swapping Meyer for Marino. Marino took that information to Clark and proposed a plan: Marino would take over bargaining and build a team of veteran labor lawyers. He believed Clark would see the binary nature of the offer: Clark could say yes, and theoretically unify the group, but to say no could throw the union into conflict and put himself at risk. Clark asked for time to think.

On Sunday, a text chain among major league player leaders asking whether they wanted to replace Meyer with Marino — created to form a record of players’ votes — confirmed Marino had a majority. A day later, after union officials finished their final in-person meeting on their 30-team spring tour, Marino’s camp reached out to Clark and reaffirmed that they wanted to work with him as the executive director and Marino his deputy. Shortly thereafter, Clark called for the Zoom meeting.

It soon became clear that Marino’s read on the situation — that Clark would acquiesce and dismiss Meyer — was wrong. Clark backed Meyer, who was also on the call. They listened as players levied complaints on a variety of topics, from the dip in free agent spending to exasperation that some high-ranking players didn’t know that Clark had been given a new five-year contract in November 2022 until reading about it online. Players harped on union leaders’ poor communication.

Other players chimed in about Marino’s hypocrisy on the same subject. His campaign had intentionally left some players — and, by extension, their teams — in the dark. It was antithetical to the solidarity they preached, and the approach by Marino — who asked Clark to be included in the call but was not granted access — particularly bothered some players who were not familiar with Marino. Though Meyer’s support was limited, players asked why the union needed change and how Marino, with minimal experience, would make them better.

By Monday night, reports of the meeting circulated among players. On Tuesday morning, it dominated conversations in clubhouses across the game. A range of emotions revealed themselves: livid, confused, emboldened. Some player representatives knew about Marino’s play and didn’t inform their clubhouses. Others, left in the dark, didn’t have answers to questions asked by teammates. Officials from both parties spent the day on the phone, making their case to players. Boras went public, shredding Marino to The Athletic.

“If you have issues with the union and you want to be involved with the union, you take your ideas to them,” he said. “You do not take them publicly, you do not create this coup d’etat and create really a disruption inside the union. If your goal is to help players, it should never be done this way.”

To those convinced the Boras-Meyer link was real, the comments served as affirmation, further harming Meyer — and Clark as well — in the eyes of players. While it would be malpractice for the two top officials at the players’ union not to have a relationship with the agent who represents more major league players than any, power struggles often turn dirty, every small thing growing outsized.

Marino wasn’t immune, either. Critics painted him as a Svengali whose power over minor league players carried little weight, even if it would carry votes. They argued that he would bend to MLB and implement a salary cap. That he’s tied to CAA and WME, agencies whose clients have among the strongest voices, in the same way Meyer is to Boras. That his approach was an act of aggression, unseemly, in defiance of history and protocol.

In a statement, Marino told ESPN: “I have spent the entirety of the past two weeks in meetings and phone calls with Major League Players. From those conversations, three things have become clear. First, Players want to know how their hard-earned money is being spent. They deserve a full audit of the MLBPA’s financials. Assuming the staff has nothing to hide, this should not be a problem. Second, Players have lost confidence in the MLBPA’s current collective bargaining team and want to move in a new direction.

“Third, some Players have questions about me and what that new direction might look like. That’s totally fair. While the Players’ desire for change has been simmering for some time, over the past week it has come to the surface in a manner unexpected to everyone, myself included. As always, I will make myself available to speak to any Player who wants their voice heard and their questions answered.”

THE POSSIBILITY OF a Clark-Marino pairing running the union together died Monday. Perhaps it was never feasible, a half-measure, but that reality forces players into the sort of uncomfortable position that could conceivably save Clark. Because for all the warts players suggest the union has, all the dissatisfaction percolating, they like him personally. They liked him enough to extend his contract through 2027. And they might like him enough to let him see it through.

“The MLBPA has been and always will be fully transparent with its Players,” Clark said Wednesday in a statement to ESPN. “We recently negotiated two collective bargaining agreements on behalf of our members: a Major League agreement that made tangible Player gains in the face of an ownership lockout, and a first ever agreement on behalf of Minor League Players. An attempted takeover coordinated by a disgruntled former employee does nothing to change those facts.

“The question before us now is how we build from here. Those are conversations that we are having, and will continue to have with our membership.”

When the politicking settles and votes on the future of the MLBPA are taken, it will come down to the numbers. Though the board consists of 72 seats, currently 11 minor league representative positions are unfilled, cutting into Marino’s count for the potential removal of Clark. It’s unlikely Clark will be able to poach any of the 23 minor leaguers who do have a say — even if he makes the case that they would not be union members without him having pushed for a minor league unit — which leaves eight votes to give a majority to Marino’s side. If Clark were deposed and Marino made a play for the job, though, coming in to run the union on the strength of barely a quarter of big league clubhouses would leave him weak from the moment he started.

Knowing that — and knowing if he ties himself to Meyer, Clark could conceivably write his own end — Clark’s maneuver could be a repeat of 2018: Agree to dismiss Meyer or accept his resignation, then conduct a search for a new deputy executive director, only this time with more help from the executive board. At this point, it might be the clearest path to his survival. It is also not one Clark has made five days after Marino’s first meeting with him, indicating a bond with Meyer.

Clark started to do damage control Tuesday, telling players that his words about the decision to keep or fire Meyer being his did not reflect his true feelings that the will of players runs the union. How that lands — whether players believe Clark is genuine or simply a man trying to save his job — will color his attempt to survive in the coming days. The executive subcommittee met Wednesday night as well.

Next will be more phone calls, more canvassing, more impassioned rhetoric. Clarity will come soon enough. In an email sent to players Tuesday afternoon obtained by ESPN, Clark told players to reach out to him with any questions and that they will reconvene as a group in the coming days.

“The focus of this union,” he wrote, “has always been, and always will be, the Players.”

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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8 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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8 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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