
2024 MLB predictions: From playoffs and World Series to MVPs and Cy Youngs
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adminOpening Day is tomorrow, so you know what that means — it’s time for season predictions!
There are lots of questions going into the 2024 season: What does Year 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to offer? Will we continue to see top teams knocked out early? And is this the year your favorite team will make a run in October? Or your favorite player will win a postseason award?
No one can definitively know what’s in store for this season, but that doesn’t stop us from making our best guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to predict what will happen in baseball this year, from the wild-card contenders all the way up to the World Series champion, plus the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in both leagues.
For each category, we’ve asked a number of our voters to explain their picks. Did they hit the nail on the head or were they way off their mark? Only time can tell — and you know we’ll be circling back to these predictions come October to see how well, or poorly, we did.
Without further ado, let’s see what our experts had to say.
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AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our pick: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else got votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favorite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — healthy. Injuries ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and they might again in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already dealing with setbacks. LeMahieu could miss the start of the season, but he should return soon thereafter. Cole’s status is more unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes likely depend on it. Assuming Cole returns sometime before the All-Star break and is effective, the Yankees should win enough baseball games to be in contention for the division title if they stay healthy elsewhere. They’ll score plenty of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the lineup.
The Orioles, meanwhile, are loaded with young talent — and they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes during the offseason. They could be just as good, if not better, than last season’s 101-win club. But there are injury concerns in the rotation behind Burnes and regression is always a possibility. Their Pythagorean record in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It should be a close race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our pick: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else got votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas City Royals (2)
Four of the five AL Central teams got votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any team in the American League, but don’t just take my word for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the only AL club listed as an odds-on favorite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup promises to be fierce (assuming good health, of course), while Pablo Lopez has emerged as a potential Cy Young favorite in the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have more top-end talent on their roster than any other club in the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our pick: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas got eight votes, but Houston got 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break health of the Texas rotation is the deciding factor for me in a race between two strong teams without much separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there’s no clear reason to expect them to fall off in 2024. While the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I think they are set up to be a much better team after the break — though, by then, they might have some ground to make up. Houston also ended up with star closer Josh Hader, another reason to lean toward the Astros in a tight chase. But it would not at all surprise me to see these teams clash in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are actually in a similar boat to the Rangers in terms of the injuries befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is expected to be out until June, Tyler Mahle until July and Jacob deGrom until August. Houston should get Justin Verlander back soon, but Jose Urquidy is out until at least May and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia won’t return until midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for as good as Houston is — and the Astros remain a very good baseball team — no lineup in the AL can match the Rangers’, and their defense last postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West is going to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you think the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on winning the division last season by just two games, so they were very much on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive winning seasons, they’re ready to take another step. As usual, Seattle didn’t spend a lot of money in the offseason, but their pickups on offense have a chance to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver provide veteran and playoff experience for a team that needs it. I’m also picking Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
But let’s not bury the lede here: Seattle’s strength is on the mound, where they added two more talents in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — though, the latter is sidelined at the moment. The Mariners’ biggest strength is their rotation, and, at least to start the season, it’s the best in the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else got votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Red Sox (2)
In recent years, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the outside looking in this year? I think of the Rays as a team with excellent big league depth and minor league inventory that also puts players in roles where they can succeed. It’s through these things that the Rays take advantage of every little edge — platooning non-star players, boasting lots of multi-positional types, having varied looks out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of a long season when each little advantage could mean a win or two. This leads to them often beating expectations in the regular season.
However, because of their payroll limitations, they often don’t have the aces or multiple star position players you see on teams that consistently win playoff series. That combined with a down-cycle of star players (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is hurt), the AL East being as good as ever and the Rays having a fair number of injuries right now are reasons for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Only two voters chose the Red Sox and you were one of them. Why? No doubt, on paper, the Red Sox look like the weakest team in a strong division, but my decidedly unscientific approach to this exercise is that we will have some playoff turnover — because we always do. A couple surprises had to be in order, and the Red Sox have a chance to be better than everyone believes. Doolittle’s system gives them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored more runs than the Blue Jays last season — and might be even stronger this year — and I think the Rays’ rotation injuries will catch up to them this season. Yes, the Red Sox will need their rotation to stay healthy, but if it does, they can steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our pick: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favorite to win the AL pennant? It’s as if evaluators look at the same script when they talk about Baltimore, emphasizing the same bold-faced word: talent. In the eyes of a lot of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away the most talent in the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the best catcher in the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who won Rookie of the Year; and Jackson Holliday, who might win Rookie of the Year if he’s called up to the big leagues soon enough. And when we get to the trade deadline, it’s safe to assume that new owner David Rubenstein will green-light the resources needed for the front office to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You were our only voter to pick the reigning World Series champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable reading of the Rangers’ starting rotation is that it is in flux. Less charitably, it could be disastrous. But that’s only temporary, and I think the lineup is good enough to carry the team through the early part of the season until all the injuries play themselves out — no guarantee, but these are predictions, after all, and not promises. Scherzer will be back for one more (last?) run before the All-Star break and deGrom should be back in August. In the meantime, the Rangers will keep mashing, and manager Bruce Bochy will mix and match like he always does. Just like last season, they’ll peak when it matters most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else got votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you think this will be the Phillies’ year to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies could not match the Braves during the regular season the past two years, but then they topped them twice in October, which matters more. Atlanta figures to play it safer during the regular season and enter October better-rested than it has in past seasons. Philadelphia has the better rotation and bullpen and should edge Atlanta out as each team approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our pick: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else got votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favorite to win the NL Central, despite missing the playoffs last year. What makes this year different? It’s a tough call between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, but the Reds have some injuries to start the season and the Cubs have a more experienced roster, so they’re my pick to win it. But it will go down to the wire. On the surface, the Cubs won 83 games last season with a plus-96 run differential, and with nearly the same roster this year and new manager Craig Counsell in the fold, they’re less likely to leave wins on the table. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, along with the team’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be needed to contribute on the mound this year. The Cubs are void of multiple true, top-end stars but have a good 40-man roster to endure the grind of a long season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I project the National League Central to be the most wide-open division. I think 86 wins might even net a team the division title, and last year, the Reds were just four wins shy of that number. Granted, I felt better about the Reds’ absurd prospect depth before Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s injury, but they still have both the raw talent and prospect capital to make the trades they’d need to bolster their playoff chances. If they made a big move for a pitcher, I think they’d be broadly looked at as more of a division favorite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked another team to win the NL West. Why is this a lock for the Dodgers? Because we’ve seen them do it with so much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — in terms of their rotation stability and infield defense, specifically — but nowhere near as flawed as they were last year, when they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their 10th division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month regular season, and now they’re the deepest and most talented team in the entire sport, let alone the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been vulnerable through this run. This is not one of those. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else got votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the teams that were the favorites among our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card field? Well, first, I’m a little surprised that the Giants were such a popular pick. I think of them more as a sleeper candidate, even though I picked them, as well. Here’s the dynamic in the NL, circa 2024. You have the Braves and Dodgers on their own level with no one else projected to be anywhere near them. At the other end of the spectrum, you have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching bags. Then you have the Phillies, who look like the clear No. 3 in the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them as the most likely of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there is no eventual end-of-season order of the other 10 teams that would shock me. I like the Diamondbacks as a team on the rise, one that should be better than last season even if they don’t catch lightning in a bottle again at playoff time. And I like the Giants for the quality bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their overall depth and especially the potential of a rotation led by a big three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electric Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to replace one of the favored teams? The third wild-card spot in the NL could go to a half dozen teams, but I’m taking the Padres based on two factors: 1) Their starting pitching is pretty good, especially with Dylan Cease added to that rotation to go with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and 2) They still have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I think Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for their best years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I still think the Padres can score enough runs, and combined with their great starting pitching, they have a chance to secure a wild card in the loaded NL field. They might have had too many mouths to feed last year — but this year, with fewer mouths to feed, I think they’ll be better. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL right now. Both have had their successes and failures in recent playoff series, so instead of focusing on if they will have the magical thing it takes to win in the postseason in 2024, I choose to focus on how much better they can get in the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth could get much better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured list right now) and they have a top-10 farm system, while Atlanta’s is in the bottom five. A lot will happen between now and the playoffs, but the Dodgers have a lot more room for error to fix what goes wrong. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season driven by their surprising exit from last year’s playoffs. At the time they were knocked out, it appeared that they had all the elements of a championship team, with a deep and powerful lineup, an improved defense and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss at the hands of the Diamondbacks must’ve gnawed at them maybe even more than losing the World Series in 2022 did. This is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and they know from recent experience that they can be as good or better than the Braves. The Phillies are an incredibly dangerous, highly focused team, and they’re aching to take the next step. — Olney
World Series champion
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else got votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ year? This team is simply too good and too powerful to go down in the division series for a third straight season — although avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola might be a good idea. The most important reason why this will be the Braves’ year is that the pitching staff is the best one they have had this decade, much better and deeper than the 2021 World Series winners. The bullpen looks extremely strong, which will allow manager Brian Snitker to back off his starters some in the regular season to keep them healthy for October. And in Spencer Strider — owner of a new curveball — and Max Fried, they have a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and can shut down any lineup, including the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Despite their historic offseason, the Dodgers are not our favorite to win the title — but they are yours. Why? We all think of the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a prospective 100-win dynamo that has struggled at times to clear the postseason hurdle (well, except for the shortened 2020 campaign), but I actually see their 2024 roster as one of their best-aligned for short playoff series of any from the past decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and look at that prospective October rotation, assuming all goes well on the health front: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, May, Sheehan and Gavin Stone available as insurance policies if any of the front four is absent. How many teams can claim a comparable postseason staff, at least this far out? — Cockcroft
You were the lone voter to choose the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant and then the World Series. Explain why you’re all-in on them. I have stuck with the Jays since I saw the coming wave of children of some of the great Hall of Fame players I played against. The Jays are in an interesting sweet spot — they have young talent who are now also experienced. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, knowing he wasn’t at his best a year ago, and they still made the playoffs. Their rotation has a lot of arms and while every team’s pitching staff needs better health, the Blue Jays’ pitching was also a strength last year. They can win on the road, they beat up lefties and righties without pride or prejudice and half their team is so athletic that they could be playing in March Madness (and they are probably still young enough to be on a college team).
Now, the next step for them, which I believe they will take, is to perform better in their division. They proved they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat, but now, they need to beat the favorites to fully realize they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our pick: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else got votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters were tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It’s hard to think of a better fit than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, playing under the bright lights of the biggest city in America. It almost feels as if he was born for this. It will energize him, as will being only a season away from his highly anticipated run at free agency. That, and the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, might lead to the best offensive season of his career. And when it comes to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto will have one crucial thing in his favor: a fellow superstar in Judge batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It came down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to pick Soto — I also think he’s going to have a monster season playing at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that short porch and feeding off playing in New York. But I also think Judge is going to have another MVP-caliber year, which made me wonder if Soto and Judge would actually hurt each other’s chances for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a young superstar who just about everybody believes will take the next step this season, including me. The Mariners should be really good — that rotation might be the best in the majors — and Rodriguez should be the clear best player. That combination made him my pick. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else got votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford just made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, but he is already our favorite to win Rookie of the Year. What makes him so special? Langford’s teammates already are marveling at the entirety of the package he provides, from the linebacker’s body — 6-foot-1, 225 pounds — to the home run power to the advanced swing decisions. That he slipped to the fourth overall pick in last July’s draft was as much a function of the all-time class 2023 may be, but fortune smiled on the Rangers, and under general manager Chris Young, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding light. They could’ve tried to manipulate Langford’s service time. Instead, they’re trying to win another World Series. — Passan
AL Cy Young
Our pick: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else got votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
Multiple AL pitchers received four or more votes to win Cy Young, with Burnes getting the most at 10. Why was he your pick? Burnes is a rather trendy pick because he won the NL Cy Young award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new team, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the past three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani in the NL, he seems as good a choice as any. — Karabell
Lopez was next at 6 votes. Explain why you chose him. Year 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who increased his strikeout total by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the same number of starts (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 against his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates in the Twins’ first Cy Young winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our pick: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna is not our voters’ favorite here, but you were one of six people to pick him to win his second consecutive MVP. Explain your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 home runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP selection in 2023, but here’s what everyone is overlooking: He would have been the MVP even if he had stolen 13 bases instead of 73. He was the best hitter in the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do that again for a clear reason: He cut his strikeout rate from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% last year. That’s a real, repeatable skill and it made him not only one of the game’s top sluggers but the sixth-most-difficult player to strike out. He may not run as much this year after tweaking his knee in spring training, but another .330, 40-homer season means he can take home MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We’re going to need to hear your reasoning on this one. We have to pause and realize what the Dodgers have put together at the top of the order. It is a three-headed legendary spirit animal that can accomplish anything you can imagine on a baseball field. You could field an entire team with these three players. Betts could play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, as well as be manager, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani could DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian friends (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic purposes). Freeman could just worry about picking up any bad throws on his way to 200 hits while running for mayor, governor and eventually, president. (He has my vote.) These are not just three amazing players — they are generational talents.
I thought it could be fun to track the amazing things they do this season under the BOF umbrella. Since everything has a metric now, we should personalize it. We could slap new adjectives on it and call it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, but better to combine it into one metric, BOF, because of their potential altogether. Forget MVP for a season, since there is a good shot one of these guys will win it — and the only reason they may not (outside of Acuna also being legendary, and Soto being in the AL now) is because they keep knocking into each other. I wish I could go back and be a nine-hole hitter in front of those three. Never again would the nine hole be so glorious. Whoever hits ninth could score 250 runs by just breathing. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else got votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your choice for Rookie of the Year? I remember when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I asked a pro scout how high up I should move him in my midseason top 50 prospects update. He argued for top 10 and when I brought up some concerns, he said: “Look, the scouts that have seen him think he has three 7s.” He means three of his five tools (power, speed, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, while the other two might both be 60s. How many guys in the big leagues can match that? It’s a single-digit number, and it might be as small as three. Add on top of that how highly Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s makeup and it’s hard to justify picking anyone else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your pick? First off, Lee is fun, and baseball needs more fun. He’s fast and flashy and ready for his moment. He had a strong spring training, showing more power than expected, and he feels like the type of rookie who can come in and hit the ground running. He might not be the best player from this rookie class in five years — give that to Chourio — but he’ll be the best one over the next 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Young
Our pick: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else got votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Cease (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s more of a clear favorite in the NL Cy Young field than in the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Based on the quality of his stuff, he’ll probably lead the league in strikeouts again. And based on the quality of his teammates, he’ll probably lead the league in wins again. But the separator could be a stronger finish. Strider accumulated a career-high 186 2/3 innings last season, more than a 50-inning jump from the year before. But he seemed to wear down near the end, posting a 5.67 ERA over his past six regular-season starts. If not for that, he probably would’ve won the Cy Young in 2023. — Gonzalez
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Sports
Inside the monthslong saga that led to Nico Iamaleava’s shocking Tennessee transfer
Published
2 hours agoon
April 23, 2025By
admin
FOUR MONTHS BEFORE Nico Iamaleava shocked the college football world by leaving Tennessee for UCLA, signs of his discontent were apparent.
On Dec. 28, hours before the winter transfer portal window closed, Tennessee sources say Iamaleava’s representatives, including his father, Nic, reached out to the Tennessee NIL collective, Spyre Sports Group. They wanted to increase Iamaleava’s pay for 2025 to around $4 million, getting him closer to the amount eventually procured by transfer quarterbacks Carson Beck (Miami) and Darian Mensah (Duke) during the winter portal.. Iamaleava was set to make around $2.4 million at Tennessee this year, sources said.
Sources close to the quarterback deny they were seeking $4 million.
Iamaleava wasn’t returning phone calls from coaches at this point. Sources close to the quarterback said he needed to take a “mental break” following the Vols’ 42-17 loss to eventual national champion Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff, but they acknowledged they did seriously consider entering his name in the portal.
Tennessee sources say they believe the Iamaleavas reached out to several schools, including Miami, Ole Miss and Oregon, to gauge interest. Tennessee coach Josh Heupel was seemingly able to smooth things over and keep Nico on board for 2025, but the quarterback did not receive a new deal or more money.
But while the deterioration of the relationship between Iamaleava and Tennessee was months in the making, the whirlwind that followed his decision to skip practice on April 11 — a day ahead of Tennessee’s spring game — and enter the transfer portal was dizzying.
Coaches and teammates attempted to reach him that Friday but were met with silence.
“As the day went on, it started to become obvious. He was gone and wasn’t coming back,” a Tennessee source said.
A little more than a week later, Iamaleava had signed with UCLA. A source described Iamaleava’s UCLA agreement as paying him less than what he was earning at Tennessee but more than the $1.5 million that some have reported. A day after UCLA announced Iamaleava’s signing, the Bruins’ expected starting quarterback, Joey Aguilar, left and reportedly joined … Tennessee.
It became the crystallization of college football in 2025 in which million-dollar quarterbacks can become free agents every season and Power 4 starters can essentially be swapped for each other. The ripple effects will be felt far into next season, when the fortunes of a Tennessee team with playoff aspirations and a UCLA squad under pressure to turn things around quickly hang in the balance.
How did a once-promising relationship between school and QB fall apart so swiftly? What does Iamaleava’s big move mean for UCLA? And what comes next for both sides after the most prominent college football breakup in recent memory?
THE DAY OF Iamaleava’s no-show at Tennessee, UCLA coach DeShaun Foster spoke with ESPN about the start to the Bruins’ spring practice session. Foster had completed his first full offseason leading the program and made key changes to both the coaching staff and the roster, including the additions of offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri and Aguilar, a transfer from Appalachian State.
Foster was complimentary of Aguilar during the interview. UCLA was prepared to “lean on” Aguilar’s experience, especially with Sunseri coming in from Indiana and installing a new offense.
“I don’t want to say he’s just a pocket passer, but he does a good job of getting the ball out of his hand, anticipating some throws,” Foster said. “Being that this is a new system for him, I just like the way he’s approaching each practice. You can just tell that he’s getting more vocal, he’s getting more comfortable, and he’s been able to assert his leadership a little bit more.”
But by the end of the day, UCLA’s quarterback situation seemed foggier because of what was happening more than 2,000 miles away in Knoxville. Once Iamaleava was officially in the transfer portal, the Bruins emerged as the front-runner for the Southern California native practically by default.
Sources close to Iamaleava were confident he could secure a deal for more than $4 million at his next school, but he was working with little leverage. SEC players cannot transfer to another SEC program in the spring and immediately play in the fall, so those schools weren’t involved. Iamaleava’s absence from the Friday practice also created a perception among coaches that he’d attempted a holdout.
High-profile players and their reps seeking offseason pay raises is nothing new in the era of NIL and the portal, especially this year with the imminent arrival of revenue sharing. But rarely do these discussions devolve into a public feud.
“It’s been going on in a lot of programs for a while,” a Power 4 personnel director said. “You just don’t hear about it. It’s happening more than people think. It’s just public because it’s Tennessee and it’s Nico.”
Sources at USC, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Texas Tech and several other Power 4 programs told ESPN they weren’t getting involved with Iamaleava. Some had quarterbacks locked in, others were hesitant to deal with Iamaleava’s representatives. The Bruins, meanwhile, were debating whether to move forward but would be interested if the price was right.
Although UCLA had been pleased with Aguilar as a good fit for Sunseri’s offense, it also viewed Iamaleava as a clear upgrade. He had started a full season for an SEC team that went to the CFP. UCLA recognized some of the drama in Iamaleava’s orbit, but the player himself was well-liked by those inside the Tennessee program until his no-show and was fairly productive on the field while staying healthy. Iamaleava passed for 2,616 yards and 19 touchdowns, but in his eight SEC games and the playoff game against Ohio State, he passed for more than 200 yards only twice.
“If it wasn’t a local kid, it would’ve been a little bit more difficult. But being able to see him play in high school and evaluating that film at Tennessee wasn’t hard to do,” Foster said. “A lot of the kids on the team know him and have played with him.”
IAMALEAVA’S ATTEMPTED NIL renegotiation was just the start of a tumultuous offseason. It soon became increasingly evident to those at Tennessee that Iamaleava’s camp was looking into options elsewhere.
Multiple sources at Tennessee told ESPN that Iamaleava missed two offseason workouts in February and that his father told Tennessee coaches that Iamaleava’s attorney advised him to skip workouts until he worked things out with Spyre. Iamaleava’s camp contends the absence was over a payment issue with Spyre. A Spyre representative told ESPN that there were no missed payments. Nic Iamaleava could not be reached for comment. The quarterback returned to workouts the next week, but his NIL deal remained unchanged.
Before Tennessee’s spring practices began in March, school officials were alerted by Oregon’s staff that Iamaleava’s camp had contacted the Ducks inquiring about their interest, according to sources at Oregon and Tennessee. Oregon told the Iamaleava camp it wasn’t interested.
Sources close to Iamaleava told ESPN that the family’s primary concern in the offseason was less about his compensation and more about Tennessee’s efforts to build up a better supporting cast on offense. Those close to Iamaleava were concerned about pass protection and his overall health. Iamaleava sat out the second half of the Mississippi State game after a concussion but went through concussion protocol and was cleared the next week by medical personnel and played against Georgia.
Those in Iamaleava’s camp expected Heupel to shore up the offensive line and reload at wide receiver this offseason, with one source saying the head coach made “false promises” about those efforts. When asked to respond, Heupel declined to comment through a university spokesman, saying he was done talking about Iamaleava.
The Vols must replace four starting offensive linemen in 2025 and brought in two transfers who had been starters, Arizona’s Wendell Moe Jr. and Notre Dame’s Sam Pendleton, as well as five-star freshman tackle David Sanders, who was part of a 2025 recruiting class ranked 11th nationally by ESPN. The receiving corps will feature considerable youth in 2025 after Dont’e Thornton Jr. and Bru McCoy graduated, and Squirrel White transferred to Florida State.
The lone wideout added via the portal in January, Alabama’s Amari Jefferson, is a redshirt freshman. Former five-star recruit Mike Matthews will be a sophomore next season after catching only seven passes in limited opportunities in 2024. Matthews and fellow freshman Boo Carter, who will play receiver and defensive back next season, both considered entering the winter portal before agreeing to return to Tennessee.
“You kept hearing rumblings all spring that [Iamaleava] one way or the other wouldn’t be here in the fall,” one Tennessee source told ESPN. “A lot of people were surprised he missed that practice, but it wasn’t the first time he missed something he was supposed to be at, so I don’t know if anybody should have really been that surprised.”
According to Tennessee sources, talks continued into the spring between the collective and Iamaleava’s side. There had been opportunities in place for Iamaleava to make “well into the six figures” in additional NIL earnings, one source said, if he agreed to certain appearances and requests, but he declined to do so.
Even though Iamaleava participated in spring practice, sources told ESPN that a general uneasiness still lingered throughout the program and athletic department about whether the quarterback would stick around for the 2025 season.
“We were just hoping we could make it to December [2025] and then we knew he was gone, either to the NFL or transferring somewhere else,” a source within the Tennessee program said.
AS TENNESSEE’S SPRING practice reached its final week, sources said Iamaleava told at least one teammate after their Wednesday practice that he planned to enter the transfer portal on the Sunday after the spring game.
“I’m getting in the portal, if you need to handle your business,” Iamaleava said as he was walking off the practice field, according to a Tennessee player who heard him say it.
One of the teammates went to Heupel to alert him. Heupel met with Iamaleava to make sure everything was OK and didn’t mention anything about the information coming from teammates, and Iamaleava assured his coach that everything was good and it was “all a bunch of rumors.”
The following day, a report from On3 emerged that Iamaleava and Tennessee were in “active negotiations” for a new deal. Iamaleava’s camp tells a wholly different story. Cordell Landers, an adviser who previously worked as assistant director of player personnel at Florida under Dan Mullen, and Iamaleava’s father took to social media to adamantly deny that negotiations were taking place.
Iamaleava does not have an agent. His team of advisers includes his father and Landers, who has been close with Nic since high school, as well as sports attorney Michael Huyghue, the former commissioner of the United Football League (UFL).
Sources close to the quarterback insist they’ve had zero conversions with Heupel or Spyre since January regarding his deal and deny they were seeking $4 million, even going so far as to suggest Nico was already making that much. “The family is happy with Tennessee,” a source told ESPN that night, in response to the On3 report. “Nico is happy. We’re good.” But the report itself sowed far more distrust and a suspicion that Tennessee coaches or the NIL collective were responsible for leaking information.
“It was a false narrative and they took that s— and ran with it,” a source close to Iamaleava said. “It became bigger than what it was, when it wasn’t even the case.”
As his phone blew up Thursday with calls and texts, Iamaleava was blindsided. He still attended a dinner along with his fellow Tennessee quarterbacks on Thursday night at the home of Joey Halzle, Tennessee’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
But later that night, sources close to Iamaleava say he reached his breaking point. He couldn’t understand why the reports were coming out, where they came from or who he could trust going forward, and he felt pressured to make a decision about his future. He was ready to leave, sources said, but his father encouraged him to sleep on the decision.
That next morning, Iamaleava didn’t show up for Friday’s practice or meetings and didn’t alert anyone in the program.
Nic Iamaleava urged his son to go in and meet face-to-face with Heupel and his coaches to work things out, but Iamaleava felt betrayed, sources said, and did not speak with Heupel on Friday. Several people within the Vols’ program tried to reach out to the quarterback to no avail.
“He’s hurt and he’s disappointed,” a source close to Iamaleava said Friday morning. “They’re making him look like the villain and the scapegoat.”
On Friday night, Iamaleava called Halzle to inform him that he was completing his paperwork and planned to enter the transfer portal when it opened on April 16.
“He was never a troublemaker,” a Tennessee source said, “worked hard and didn’t cause problems in the locker room. He was quiet and kept to himself a lot, sort of had that California cool to him, but it’s unfair to paint him as a bad kid.”
Iamaleava’s locker was cleared out early Saturday morning before Heupel told the team their starting quarterback would no longer be part of the team.
“I want to thank him for everything he’s done since he’s gotten here, as a recruit and who he was as a player and how he competed inside the building,” Heupel said after the spring game. “Obviously, we’re moving forward as a program without him. I said it to the guys today. There’s no one that’s bigger than the Power T. That includes me.”
1:35
UCLA’s Foster talks about landing ‘No. 1 player in portal’ Iamaleava
UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster opens up about how the Bruins were able to land Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal.
REGARDLESS OF THE drama, UCLA’s ability to land Iamaleava after his surprise departure from Tennessee is considered a major move. And now his brother Madden — the nation’s No. 145 recruit last year — is also transferring to UCLA in a package deal that elevates expectations for the program.
“When’s the last time we had this many people here talking to us?” Foster asked Tuesday. “You guys know what I’m saying, so this is a good buzz for us.”
Arkansas’s NIL collective, Arkansas Edge, is expected to attempt to recoup some of the money it paid to Madden Iamaleava, a source told ESPN, after he’d signed a one-year agreement but departed within two months of joining the program. Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek announced Tuesday he’ll support those efforts because “enforcement of these agreements is vital in our new world of college athletics.”
Once it became clear Nico Iamaleava could be on his way to Westwood, representatives for Aguilar began evaluating their options. Aguilar continued to participate in practice with the Bruins last Friday despite reports that a commitment from Iamaleava appeared imminent. UCLA coaches notified the quarterbacks of their decision Sunday. Less than 24 hours later, Aguilar was back in the transfer portal.
Tennessee inquired with the agents of several Big 12, Big Ten and ACC starting quarterbacks about the possibility they’d become available in the transfer portal, sources said, a tactic that has become commonplace across the sport as players increasingly seek representation. But it’s not easy to pry one away in the spring with most returning starters already locked into seven-figure deals with their current teams. Illinois’ Luke Altmyer, TCU’s Josh Hoover and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson were all rumored to be interests of Tennessee but couldn’t be flipped, according to sources.
“We got a damned wall built around him,” a Kansas State source told ESPN, referring to Johnson. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.”
In the end, Tennessee’s best option ended up being the quarterback who had to leave UCLA.
And now the Iamaleava-Aguilar swap will be closely watched from coast to coast this season.
“You want to be in conversations,” Foster said Tuesday, “you want to play big-time ball, you want to have haters, you want all this stuff because that means that you’re trending in the right direction, so if you want to play big-time ball, you can do that at UCLA.”
ESPN college football writer Paolo Uggetti contributed to this report
Sports
‘I tried it. I’m like, dude, it doesn’t work’: Pitchers tell their best stories of failed new pitches
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2 hours agoon
April 23, 2025By
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BY ALL MEASURES, Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal throws a good slider. Particularly when complementing one of the best fastballs and changeups in the game, the pitch serves as an effective third offering with the velocity and movement profile to stand on its own. There’s just one problem with it, according to the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner.
It’s not the slider he wants.
That version belongs to Clayton Kershaw, the future Hall of Famer whose tight, late-breaking slider has propelled him to the best career ERA of any starting pitcher in more than a century. Skubal reveres Kershaw’s slider, coveting it to the point he will spend entire offseasons fiddling with grips, finger pressure, wrist positioning and every other trick of the trade in hopes that the movement profiles spit out by a Trackman unit mirror Kershaw’s.
They never do.
“I’ve been trying to get Kershaw’s slider for four or five years and I can’t get it. I just can’t get it,” Skubal said. “So it’s frustrating. But at the same time, the beauty of the sport is you’re just one cue away from getting the pitch shape you want or getting the velocity.”
Every spring, dozens of pitchers arrive at camp with new pitches, eager to take the seedling they planted in a pitching lab and hope it blossoms against live hitters as the season beckons. A new pitch can alter the trajectory of a player’s career, turning him into, well, someone like Skubal. New-pitch success stories are now almost a rite of spring training, the upshot of a data-driven pitching world in which players A/B test their capability to replicate the pitches they admire most before bringing them to a game already tipped in their favor.
Pitchers are perhaps the most talented and capable movers in all of sports, aligning their bodies to project a five-ounce ball 60 feet, 6 inches to a box 17 inches wide and around 24 inches tall. Their awareness of where their limbs are in space, their feel for the ball and its seams, their ability to capably manipulate everything such that they can marry velocity, spin and deception — it’s like a chef who finds perfect balance among saltiness, sweetness and spiciness.
The only taste left on Skubal’s palate by his slider is bitterness. It’s not just the Kershaw slider that vexes him, either.
“I’ve been trying to throw a sweeper for three years,” Skubal said, “but I can’t get the ball to sweep.”
Stories like these, of the pitches that don’t work out, are told far less often than the successes that permeate Pitching Ninja’s sizzle reels. These failures are the banes of pitchers’ existence, nemeses that invite fury and frustration.
Skubal’s coaches remind their ace that he’s doing just fine. The 28-year-old was the best pitcher in Major League Baseball in 2024, and so far this season his stuff is grading out even better by pitching metrics. Skubal could spend the rest of his career throwing his current slider and remain among the elite, a true ace in a game with few.
“I’m like, dude, I know. But I’m so f—ing close to getting something really good,” Skubal said. “I’m just waiting for the right grip and the right cue to come through. And I’m going to get it.”
COLLECTING NEW PITCHES isn’t just about having a trick to pull out and impress the rest of the staff or to earn social media notoriety. It’s a requisite for modern success. Gone are the days of the two-pitch starter. The three-pitch starter is an endangered species. Even four pitches are often no longer enough. With rare exceptions, the best starting pitchers in 2025 throw at least five pitches. To understand the proliferation of pitchability, one need only look at the number of pitches thrown by the 10 starters with the lowest ERAs since 2024.
Paul Skenes: 6
Skubal: 5
Hunter Greene: 4
Zack Wheeler: 6
Shota Imanaga: 5
Chris Sale: 4
Michael King: 4
Max Fried: 6
Bryce Miller: 5
Corbin Burnes: 5
It goes far beyond the best pitchers in the sport. Almost every pitcher (Burnes is the outlier) throws four- and two-seam fastballs. Each has at least one pitch that bends, and in some cases multiple. There’s usually a changeup of some variety — and often two, with different grips and movement profiles.
Seth Lugo has taken the process of adding pitches to an unmatched extreme. The Kansas City Royals right-hander estimates he throws 11 different pitches and has three unique sliders. Behind him, the six-pitch club includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Spencer Schwellenbach, Nathan Eovaldi and Sonny Gray. Among the five-pitch cohort: Cole Ragans, Framber Valdez, Logan Gilbert, Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen, Mackenzie Gore, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Crochet, who as recently as two years ago threw only a fastball and slider.
But for all of the benefits of adding new options to an arsenal, only the lucky few have done so without feeling defeated by a particular pitch.
Gilbert, a 27-year-old right-handed All-Star for the Seattle Mariners and proud member of the five-pitch club, exemplifies how the mix of pitches in a starter’s repertoire is always evolving, even when it comes to the game’s best. In 2021, his rookie season, Gilbert threw eight different types of pitches: four- and two-seam fastballs, a standard and knuckle curve, a slider, a cutter, a changeup and a splitter. He discarded the splitter, cutter and standard curve in his second season, only to re-add a better version of the splitter in 2023 because nothing exasperated him quite like the changeup has throughout his career.
“That’s why I got rid of it,” Gilbert said during spring training. “Except recently I threw one in catch play and kind of felt good, so … I need to stop”
Unlike pitchers who will add and subtract offerings during the middle of the season, Gilbert believes the winter and six weeks of spring training are the time to lock in pitches for the season ahead. After reintroducing the traditional curve and cutter in 2024, he settled on a more limited arsenal for 2025, leaning heavily on his four-seamer, splitter and slider while feathering in curves and throwing a few two-seamers each game.
“I’m naturally black and white, logical, scientific, and that’s kind of how I create pitches. But that’s offseason work,” Gilbert said. “When you’re on the mound, when you’re in the game, you kind of switch back to be able to [be] the artist, so to speak. I work with [Mariners mental skills coach Adam Bernero] a lot on that. It’s about feel. It’s about letting go. It’s about things that you can’t quantify that kind of sound made up, but that’s what makes me a really good pitcher. Probably other guys, too. It’s not that when you’re out there you’re thinking about how do I throw this sweeper with as much break as possible. That’s behind the scenes. And the good guys, I feel like, can switch back and forth between that.
“You start leaning into this stuff — like the process, not the result — and letting go and getting rid of expectations, and stuff like that actually makes you a better pitcher. It sounds so great, but in practice it’s such a hard thing to do. It’s great until somebody gets a double and it’s even harder, but you have to commit to it beforehand and stay committed to it.”
Sticking with something that can potentially lead to suboptimal results while being perfected is a much less difficult proposition for an established major league star than it is for a young pitcher trying to climb an organizational ladder while optimizing his pitch mix for future performance.
When Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan was drafted by Tampa Bay in 2018, he asked a scout what allowed Brendan McKay, the Rays’ first-round pick the year before, to move through the organization so quickly. Simple, Ryan was told: McKay’s fastball was so good that lower-level hitters couldn’t touch it, so McKay just carved up lineups with it. That sounded good to Ryan. Hitters struggled with his deceptive four-seamer, thrown from a relatively low slot and with well-above-average backspin. He threw it about 90% of the time. But the Rays’ farm director at the time, Mitch Lukevics, warned Ryan that he would need a greater repertoire as he ascended in the organization, so in his next start, Ryan threw a curveball that got obliterated for a three-run home run. His High-A pitching coach, Doc Watson, told Ryan he should have a new game plan: “Throw f—ing heaters.”
Ryan kept putting off the curveball as he learned other pitches. He was told he needed a changeup to move to Double-A, and he developed one within 10 days. He picked up a sweeper, ditched it at the behest of the Rays and unleashed it again after he was traded to Minnesota. He scrapped the changeup for a splitter in 2023, and it’s now his second-best pitch. The curveball remains his white whale.
“But I threw one the other day and it was the best curveball I’ve ever thrown,” Ryan said. “I’m like, all right, maybe I can do this. But if you have a sweeper, split, short slider that’s hard, sinker, four-seam — I don’t know where the curve works in the equation as much. If you … can just sit on one pitch the whole time, it’s going to be a really tough game. But if you can go in there and just mix the whole time and you have good s—, it’s going to be a really tough day for them.”
FOR MORE THAN a decade, Kenta Maeda could not throw a split-fingered fastball. Splitters are a trademark for most of the best Japanese pitchers, but when Maeda tried to throw one, it didn’t tumble. To hitters, it looked like a batting-practice fastball.
Maeda sought advice from around the game on how to properly throw a splitter. He asked Hideo Nomo, the godfather of modern Japanese pitching, and Masahiro Tanaka, whose splitter led him to a pair of All-Star Games with the New York Yankees. Maeda never worried too much about his lack of a splitter because his circle changeup was plenty good.
In 2018, his third year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he lost the feel for his change and started to scramble. Without a change, he needed a split. “It was time for me to maneuver that pitch,” said Maeda, the 36-year-old Detroit Tigers right-hander who almost always has a ball in his hand when he’s sitting on the bench. Most pitchers are tinkerers by trade, fiddling with grips and pressures, trying to find something that’s comfortable. Rather than copy his countrymen, who jam the ball between their index and middle fingers to throw a splitter, Maeda conceived of a splitter with some characteristics from his circle change. He put his index and middle fingers together, splitting the ring finger.
“Then I started playing with that pitch during catch play,” Maeda said, “and here we are.”
Six years later, Maeda still throws the split. It’s the sort of thing that gives Skubal hope. He saw how a new pitch can be an immediate success this winter, when San Francisco Giants left-hander Robbie Ray texted asking Skubal how he gripped his changeup. Skubal sent photos and video to explain the pitch to Ray, a reflection of the pitching fraternity in which trade secrets are shared regularly, even among opponents.
Ray cottoned to the changeup and is throwing it nearly 13% of the time this season, the highest percentage since his rookie season in 2014. Ray’s success with it is a reminder of how difficult learning a new pitch can be, because a far more accomplished pitcher has spent nearly two decades trying to find a change upon which he can rely. For the entirety of his 18-year career, Kershaw has entered spring training in search of a usable changeup, only to throw it a dozen or so times a year. Sometimes a pitch isn’t meant to be.
Skubal isn’t there yet with his slider. Still, he’s a competitor, a perfectionist and a realist, so if he couldn’t land Kershaw’s slider, he figured, maybe an alternative would work. During his interactions with Ray, Skubal asked about his slider, which helped Ray capture the AL Cy Young in 2021.
“He showed me his grip, showed me his cues, everything,” Skubal said. “I tried it. I’m like, dude, it doesn’t work. But it works for him. I love his slider. It’s a really good pitch. It didn’t work out in my favor, worked out in his, but maybe it’ll work again. I’ll revisit it.”
Sports
Ovechkin’s still got it, and the Kings might finally have it: Early Stanley Cup playoff takeaways
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3 hours agoon
April 23, 2025By
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Apr 23, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
The first 13 games of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs are in the books — thanks for finally joining the party, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning — so each team has had a chance to show the new postseason version of itself.
Which teams and players made the best early impression? Who has room for improvement? How will all of it matter when it comes to the rest of Round 1 and the entire postseason?
ESPN reporters Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski identified their top takeaways off of the first set of games, covering all eight series.
Read more:
Full schedule
Intel on all 16 teams
Top 50 players
Wyshynski’s bracket
Contender flaws
In just two games, the Avs-Stars series once again proves that all contributions are needed
One of them earns just slightly more than $1 million this season while the other has at least three games remaining on his one-year contract worth $775,000. Yet what they’ve done has been instrumental in why the much-anticipated first-round series between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars is tied at 1-1.
Logan O’Connor is a point away from being tied for the postseason lead in scoring, while Colin Blackwell‘s second-ever playoff goal prevented the Avs from having a 2-0 series advantage before heading back to Denver.
It’s not that premier talents such as Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Jake Oettinger and Mikko Rantanen won’t play a role in the series. But for either team to keep advancing, they’re going to need help from the supporting cast. That’s something the Avs know all too well, as a lack of supporting cast has hindered them the past two years, whereas the Stars ran into that problem during last year’s Western Conference finals.
O’Connor is part of the Avs’ fourth line featuring Jack Drury and Parker Kelly that has already accounted for two goals and seven points; the bottom six has scored three of the Avs’ eight goals through two games. As for Blackwell, he’s a member of the Stars’ fourth line with Oskar Back and Sam Steel that had four points, with each forward averaging more than 10 minutes of ice time. The Stars’ bottom-six group at large was responsible for two of their three goals in Game 2. — Clark
0:50
Colin Blackwell comes up with big OT winner for Stars
Colin Blackwell sends the Stars faithful into jubilation with a great overtime winner to tie the series at 1-1 vs. the Avalanche.
Can the Core Four actually dominate a playoff series?
The Maple Leafs’ Core Four heard those criticisms about their past playoff performances — and they’ve begun to issue a rebuttal. In Game 1 of Toronto’s series against Ottawa, Mitch Marner led the way with three points, and all of William Nylander, Auston Matthews and John Tavares added a pair of points. Tavares added a goal and an assist in Game 2, while Marner, Nylander and Matthews all picked up assists.
Marner’s efforts were particularly noteworthy given his history of stumbles in the postseason. He had just three points in seven playoff games last season (another first-round exit for Toronto) and, in this ever-important contract year, Marner had further incentive to show he can be at his best when it matters most.
If Marner & Co. are finally primed to be big-time producers in the league’s second season (as they so often are for those first 82 tilts), then the Leafs may be on their way to actually fulfilling some long-anticipated postseason potential. Because no matter how strong Toronto’s goaltending is or how much improved their defensive play is, the tide has always turned with the Leafs’ top strikers.
Where the Four go, Toronto will follow. Right? — Shilton
The old guy has still got it
Whenever Alex Ovechkin scores goals, especially at home in D.C., I think back to something Tom Wilson said earlier this season during the Capitals captain’s successful pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record.
“There’s just a little extra excitement every time he scores,” Wilson said. “Everyone [on our bench] kind of jumps through the roof whenever he finds the back of the net — which is fitting because he’s always the most excited guy on the ice when anybody else scores.”
Look at Game 1 against Montreal when Ovechkin scored on the power play to give the Caps a 1-0 lead and the roof came off the place. Look at the celebration both from Ovi and the Caps when he ended the game in overtime — rather incredibly, the first postseason overtime goal of his storied career.
1:51
Alex Ovechkin’s OT goal wins Game 1 for Capitals
Alex Ovechkin’s second goal of the game is an overtime winner that gives the Capitals a 1-0 series lead vs. the Canadiens.
From the scoreboard to the dressing room to the vibes, he’s the pacesetter for this team. It’s hard to call his season underappreciated given the fanfare of breaking Gretzky’s record, but has there been a more overlooked MVP performance in the Hart Trophy race than Ovechkin’s this season?
Here’s what MVPs do: They rise to the moment in critical spots. The Canadiens are trying to pull a massive upset in the first round. Their strong third period to tie the game against a too-comfortable Washington team sent the game to overtime. A win in the extra session and all of those ghosts from past playoff humiliations might start haunting the Capitals. Ovechkin knows those ghosts. He has felt the tension that builds in D.C. when things go wrong against a lower seed. And he shut the door. Remember that if the Capitals manage to snuff out this upset bid. — Wyshynski
Are we currently watching the best version of Mark Scheifele … ever?
Few teams have faced the kind of questions the Winnipeg Jets have encountered for several years, because that’s what happens when a team has made it out of the first round only twice since 2011. The Jets’ 2-1 win Monday in Game 2 against the St. Louis Blues means they now have a 2-0 series lead for the first time since the 2021 postseason, which was also the last time they won a playoff series.
Now there’s another question: How dominant can Mark Scheifele be this postseason?
Consistency has been at the heart of Scheifele becoming a responsible, two-way center who has authored 10 consecutive seasons of more than 20 goals and 60 points. This season, he finished with a career-high 87 points, while his 39 goals were his second-highest ever.
Through two games against the Blues, Scheifele has either scored or created all but two of the Jets’ seven goals. Kyle Connor is the only Jets forward who has logged more 5-on-5 ice time than Scheifele. Even then, it’s just a difference of 31 seconds. The Blues have failed to score in 5-on-5 play when Schiefele has been on the ice, and they have mustered only two high-danger scoring chances in that time.
Yet the most jarring aspect of what he’s doing? He’s just a point shy of matching what he did in last year’s playoffs when the Jets were eliminated in five games, while being two points short of tying how many playoff points he has had over the past two years total. — Clark
It’s the Tkachuks’ world (we’re just living in it)
History was made on Tuesday night: For the first time in the NHL, two Tkachuks competed in Stanley Cup playoff games on the same night — and scored goals. According to ESPN Research, this was the 83rd time two brothers have scored on the same day of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Prior to the Tkachuks’ tallies, the last instance was when Marcus (Wild) and Nick Foligno (Bruins) both scored on April 21, 2023.
Matthew Tkachuk is no stranger to the postseason, having appeared in 72 games during his career with the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers — 45 of them over the past three seasons. But Brady Tkachuk had to wait seven seasons until the Ottawa Senators made the cut, and he made his postseason debut in Round 1 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Brady Tkachuk scored his first playoff goal in Game 2. He sent a between-the-legs pass in front of the net on the power play that deflected off the skate of Brandon Carlo and into the net. The Senators rallied to send the game to overtime, but Toronto took a 2-0 series lead on a Max Domi goal in the extra session.
“There’s no ounce of panic or doubt in this locker room. We’re looking forward to getting home,” Brady said. “Things happen. You’re not always going to get the bounces So be it. It’s just going to make it that much sweeter.”
Matthew Tkachuk played his first game since being injured in the 4 Nations Face-Off back in February, and he immediately made an impact. It was a negative one at first: Taking a roughing penalty against Nikita Kucherov in the first period that led to Jake Guentzel‘s game-tying goal. But he more than atoned for that sin with back-to-back power-play goals in the second period to make it 5-1 for Florida. He added an assist on Nate Schmidt‘s power-play goal in the third.
0:48
Matthew Tkachuk scores through chaos for Panthers
Matthew Tkachuk scores his second power-play goal of the second period to give the Panthers a 5-1 lead over the Lightning.
“What was on display was the hands. He has an incredible set of hands,” said Florida coach Paul Maurice, who otherwise felt that Tkachuk “wasn’t in the rhythm of the game” after his layoff.
Which means there’s room for improvement. Which is scary for the Lightning.
(Also scary: We’ve yet to see Tkachuck and Brad Marchand on the same line together, combining their powers for the apex of on-ice hockey trolling.)
The NHL playoff format is such that the Tkachuks could face each other in the second round if the Panthers advance past the Lightning and the Senators upset the Maple Leafs. One outcome looks a lot more possible at the moment. But never count out a motivated Tkachuk. — Wyshynski
Carolina’s fresh faces fitting in fine
The Hurricanes may have moved on from one all-star forward in Mikko Rantanen. But the skaters GM Erik Tulsky has brought to the Hurricanes — and subsequently retained — are still making their presence felt.
Logan Stankoven was the centerpiece of Carolina’s return in trading Rantanen to Dallas, and the rising star pumped in two goals against New Jersey in Game 1. Even before the postseason, Stankoven looked like a perfect fit for the Canes. The 22-year-old plays their style of game — he’s relentless battling for pucks, forechecks with conviction and has playmaking talents to spare. The way Stankoven has cultivated a natural chemistry with Jordan Staal is everything Carolina could have hoped for when he came on board. That Stankoven is giving the Hurricanes depth scoring when that has been an Achilles’ heel in playoffs past? It’s perfect. And he’s not the only one giving Carolina its money’s worth.
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Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
Tulsky also acquired veteran forward Taylor Hall midseason, and his early playoff performance has been promising. Hall’s line with Andrei Svechnikov and Jesperi Kotkaniemi was excellent in Game 1 — even without breaking onto the score sheet — generating 12 shots on goal and out-chancing the Devils 20-6. They could be a significant weapon for the Hurricanes as these playoffs roll along.
Most importantly, Carolina doesn’t feel so top-heavy now. The Hurricanes have been tripped up before by diminishing offensive contributors in a long postseason run. The way their fresh faces are fitting in, though, puts Carolina on a promising track to greater playoff success. — Shilton
What version of the Kings will show up in Game 2 against the Oilers?
For all the strides the Los Angeles Kings made in Jim Hiller’s first full season, nobody quite knew what to expect once the postseason started.
And in some ways, there are still no guarantees beyond the fact that the Kings now possess a 1-0 series lead following their 6-5 win in Game 1 over the Edmonton Oilers. After building a commanding four-goal lead against the team that has been both the literal and proverbial roadblock the past three postseasons, the Kings were reminded of why no lead of more than two goals is safe whenever they play the Oilers in the playoffs.
Why? Because 12 of the 18 playoff games between the Oilers and Kings over the past three years have been decided by less than two goals. Maybe that’s what made Monday’s game so jarring yet so familiar.
But to witness the version of the Kings that rallied to win Game 1 with a Phillip Danault goal with 42 seconds remaining? It’s something the Kings have done before against the Oilers as they did it in the 2022 and 2023 postseasons… only to then lose the series.
Are the Kings are once again in for a similar fate? Or could they finally have the answers that get them beyond their perennial tormentors and into the second round? — Clark
Special teams already playing a special role
The Vegas Golden Knights drew fewer penalties than any team in the regular season. They earned the second-fewest power-play opportunities. And yet, Vegas had the second-best power play in the league.
How? Well, just ask the Minnesota Wild.
The Wild took just two penalties in Game 1 against the Golden Knights and were burned on the man advantage both times. That’s how Vegas works. They see an opportunity, they take it.
That’s something of a theme in this early first-round action, actually. There has been plenty of power-play action. And it has been a healthy factor in determining several outcomes. In fact, through an extremely small sample size, power plays are converting at the highest rate (33.8%) in Stanley Cup playoff history (records available starting in 1977-78).
Toronto scored three goals on the man advantage to take Game 1 of their series. Colorado and Dallas each already have two power-play goals. Same with Los Angeles. St. Louis has three — although it hasn’t helped them to a victory yet over Winnipeg. And interestingly, the Jets have just one power-play goal through two games but are tied for the most at even strength (five).
So how much will special teams continue to fuel some of these matchups? Toronto’s coach Craig Berube was quick to say his team shouldn’t be expecting to rely on multiple power-play goals per game to get by. Will clubs be able to tighten up defensively? And even if they do, will those singular man-advantage chances keep tilting the ice in one team’s favor like it did so completely for Vegas in Game 1?
It’s not always a foregone conclusion that regular-season success in any category can carry over to the postseason, but the quick returns in this one show how what worked before can keep carrying the day for some contenders — Shilton
The Wild have scored seven goals in their series against the Vegas Golden Knights. Kirill Kaprizov has had a hand in five of them, including a three-point Game 2 performance that helped the Wild knot things up at 1-1 headed back to Minnesota.
In Game 1, he had the primary assist on both of Matt Boldy‘s goals, which got Minnesota within one goal with 8:14 left in the third period before Brett Howden‘s empty-netter iced the 4-2 Vegas win.
In Game 2, Kaprizov hooked up with Boldy again to open the scoring with one of the best saucer passes in recent memory.
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Matt Boldy goes five-hole to put Wild in front
Matt Boldy nets his third goal of the series as the Wild take a 1-0 lead over the Golden Knights.
“That might have been the best pass I’ve ever seen. It was unbelievable,” Boldy said. “He is a special player.”
The Wild built a 3-0 lead after the first period. Kaprizov’s goal 3:59 into the second period offered a huge bit of insurance as Vegas rallied. He then iced the game with an empty-netter to complete the two-goal night.
There’s a certain poetry in Kaprizov being an early postseason MVP, when one considers how his regular season turned out. The Wild star was limited to 41 games thanks to a lower-body injury that required surgery in January. Please recall the ESPN Awards Watch for that month, which Kaprizov still led while having already missed a few games. Were it not for his injury, it’s entirely conceivable that Kirill the Thrill ends up as a Hart Trophy finalist.
Instead, he’ll have to settle for being Minnesota’s offensive savior in the playoffs, helping to orchestrate a possible upset over the division champion Golden Knights. The Twin Cities should be rocking for Game 3 on Thursday. — Wyshynski
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