Cover contenders: Hypothetical stars for NCAA College Football’s 11-year hiatus
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
After 11 lonely years, our long national nightmare is over.
EA Sports officially released a new cover of its famed NCAA football game this week, the first in the series since NCAA Football 2014 came out in 2013. Better yet, the rosters will be (mostly) complete with actual current college football players, thanks to the NCAA’s 2021 decision to allow name, image and likeness contracts.
Of course, the game’s return doesn’t make up for the time we spent without it — the legendary players we missed, the defining moments never to be captured in ones and zeroes, and the countless number of times you could’ve blown off a week of work to take UL-Monroe to a College Football Playoff National Championship.
While we can’t create a time machine to fix those missed opportunities, we can provide at least a little revisionist history, by working back through the past 11 years to determine who would have earned the honor of gracing the cover of each version.
First, a quick bit of context: During the game’s run (from 1993, first as “Bill Walsh College Football” through 2013), the cover image couldn’t include an active player. Typically, the new game sported a cover model who had flourished the prior season in college but had already left for the NFL — Denard Robinson, Robert Griffin III, Mark Ingram and Tim Tebow, to name a few — leaving them free to sell their images to EA. But here, we’re imagining a world where the NCAA allowed NIL starting in 2014, making all players eligible for the cover image, even if they still had eligibility remaining. This also means that players such as Joe Burrow who took his talents to the NFL after his breakout season, would not make the cut as a hypothetical cover athlete.
With that said, here are our picks for the cover of each of the 11 missing seasons of EA Sports NCAA Football.
NCAA Football 15
Expected release: Summer 2014
The contenders: Florida State QB Jameis Winston, Florida State WR Rashad Greene, Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon, Navy QB Keenan Reynolds, Clemson DE Vic Beasley
It’s a shame the game disappeared after the 2013 season, as NCAA Football 15 would’ve had its share of great options of incredibly popular first-year NFL players, from Aaron Donald to Jadeveon Clowney to Mike Evans to Kelvin Benjamin. The crop of returning players was a bit thinner, with some emerging stars like Gordon (1,609 yards, 12 TDs in 2013) and Reynolds (2,403 total yards, 39 total TDs) just ahead of their prime. Mariota would go on to win the 2014 Heisman Trophy, but he entered that season in the shadow of Winston, who would have been the obvious choice if not for a series of off-field issues, including a sexual assault allegation, that likely would have deterred EA from choosing him.
The cover: Greene. Let’s split the difference here. No Winston on the cover, but the honor instead can go to another member of the FSU national championship team. Greene was one of the true leaders of that 2013 squad, and he followed it up with an equally impressive 2014 in which he caught 99 passes for 1,365 yards and seven touchdowns.
NCAA Football 16
Expected release: Summer 2015
The contenders: Ohio State DE Joey Bosa, RB Ezekiel Elliott, QBs J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, Arizona LB Scooby Wright, Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey, Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott, Alabama RB Derrick Henry
Mariota, Amari Cooper, Todd Gurley and Landon Collins all would’ve been in the mix before the NIL era began, but the 2015 class offered one of the most diverse and deep lists of returning players worthy of cover status. Ohio State won the national championship in the first College Football Playoff in 2014, and the litany of returning stars — Bosa, Elliott, Jones, Barrett, Braxton Miller, Von Bell — was incredible. Wright’s unique skill set made him an ideal cover model, while Ramsey might’ve been the most dynamic athlete in college football at the time. Prescott warrants consideration, too, for getting Mississippi State to the top of the first CFP rankings, and had the world known what a star he’d later become in the NFL, he’d probably be the obvious pick here.
The cover: Bosa. We love the idea of Jones, Miller and Barrett sharing the cover after Ohio State won a natty with its third-string QB, but we also envision Urban Meyer putting a stop to any additional media scrutiny — even in the lighthearted form of a video game cover — of his delicate QB situation entering the 2015 season. Instead, Bosa seems like the safe solution. He was dominant in the Buckeyes’ title run in 2014, racking up 13.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss, and it was clear entering the 2015 campaign that he was destined to be an early NFL draft pick. Plus, it’s good to give the defensive guys some love.
NCAA Football 17
Expected release: Summer 2016
The contenders: Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, LSU RB Leonard Fournette, Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey, Florida State RB Dalvin Cook
This was a rare season in which the talent returning far exceeded the names headed to the NFL, so EA surely would’ve been pleased to have NIL open the doors to a better cover option than (no offense) Jared Goff or Eli Apple. In any case, the college options were plentiful and all deserving. Mayfield had thrown for 3,700 yards. McCaffrey was an all-purpose Superman. Cook was as electric of a runner as there was in the sport. Fournette was a high school legend who finally seemed poised to live up to the recruiting hype. Watson had come within a hair of leading Clemson past the vaunted Alabama machine for a national title.
The cover: McCaffrey. It’s a tough call between the Stanford star and the emergent Watson, who’d go on to win a national title over Alabama at the end of the 2016 season. But at the time, there was no more remarkable talent in the sport than McCaffrey, who was a unanimous All-American after amassing 2,019 rushing yards, 645 receiving yards and 1,070 return yards for a truly astonishing tally of 3,864 all-purpose yards — 613 more than the previous record held by Barry Sanders.
NCAA Football 18
Expected release: Summer 2017
The contenders: Mayfield, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley, Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick
Mayfield had just posted his second straight season as a Heisman finalist, throwing for 40 touchdowns. Barkley had rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 18 TDs. Fitzpatrick was an emerging superstar on Alabama’s defense. There were good options. But there was only one obvious choice.
The cover: Jackson. His skill set would’ve put him among the pantheon of the greatest video game stars of all time, alongside Tecmo Bo Jackson, Jeremy Roenick in NHL 94, Bald Bull from “Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out!!” and former Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jeff D’Amico, who we all once used to throw a perfect game against our college roommate in MLB ’99. Every play with NCAA Football Lamar Jackson would’ve been a deep ball or a scramble, and he’d finish a season with 20,000 yards because there would’ve been no answer for him.
NCAA Football 19
Expected release: Summer 2018
The contenders: Stanford RB Bryce Love, Houston DE Ed Oliver, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor, FAU RB Devin Singletary, Arizona State WR N’Keal Harry, Clemson’s defensive line of Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant and Dexter Lawrence
It seems like an oversight that Mayfield spent three seasons dominating the Big 12 without ever cracking our hypothetical NCAA Football cover, but alas, he’d moved on to doing insurance commercials in a Cleveland Browns uniform by now. Fitzpatrick, Jackson, Barkley, Derwin James and Rashaad Penny were all off to the NFL, too, though all would’ve been exceptional cover options under the old system. Instead, the battle for the cover starts with a number of elite backs. Love was fresh off rushing for 2,118 yards and 19 TDs. Singletary had a little Heisman hype, including a model race car mailed out to Heisman voters to push his campaign. Taylor had turned in the first of three straight seasons with more than 1,900 yards rushing in 2017. Oliver would’ve been a great option, too. He was a dominant force with his own Heisman campaign (a bobblehead on a horse). But the honor likely comes down to two options: The ascendant QB at Alabama or the dominant defensive front at Clemson, each member returning for one last ride that eventually ended with a national title.
The cover: Tagovailoa. As much fun as it would’ve been to see the Clemson D-linemen don their famous Power Rangers costumes on the game’s cover, the buzz in the summer of 2018 was all about Tagovailoa. He’d come off the bench at halftime to rescue Alabama from the abyss in the national championship game, making him a rare combination of genuine star power and unknown commodity. The only problem with the choice is the reaction it would’ve undoubtedly engendered from Nick Saban, who wasn’t entirely eager to stoke the flames of the supposed QB battle between Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts that summer. Of course, if NIL rules were in place in 2018, does anyone think Hurts would’ve stuck around to ride the bench anyway?
NCAA Football 20
Expected release: Summer 2019
The contenders: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor, Purdue WR Rondale Moore, Ohio State DE Chase Young, Oklahoma State WR Tylan Wallace, Alabama QB Tagovailoa and WR Jerry Jeudy, LSU DB Greedy Williams
Lawrence and Etienne made for a worthy tandem, both fresh off a national title with two years left at Clemson. Moore was a revelation as a freshman, electric as a receiver and a return man. Young was the second coming of Bosa, a force of nature at the line of scrimmage who racked up 9.5 sacks and 14.5 TFL, presaging an even bigger season in 2019. Tagovailoa and Jeudy had just been dismissed by Clemson in the title game, but there was still ample hype surrounding Alabama.
The cover: Lawrence. Not since Herschel Walker in 1980 had a freshman seemed so destined to win multiple championships as Lawrence at this point. He’d taken over as Clemson’s starter in Week 5 of the 2018 season, posted dominant numbers, then led the Tigers to a national title while annihilating the unstoppable force of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alas, it was not to be, and by the end of 2019, Lawrence’s title team didn’t even seem nearly so dominant anymore after Joe Burrow & Co. set the standard in college football. Still, Lawrence was a bona fide star, and if there’s anything we’ve learned from lifestyle magazines over the years, it’s that hair as glorious as his belongs on the cover.
NCAA Football 21
Expected release: Summer 2020
The contenders: LSU CB Derek Stingley and WR JaMarr Chase, Alabama WR DeVonta Smith, Oregon OL Penei Sewell, Penn State LB Micah Parsons, Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield Jr., Ohio State QB Justin Fields
If scrubbing Lamar Jackson from the college football video game record books is the biggest loss from NCAA Football’s 11-year hiatus, the lack of a 2020 edition is a close second. It’s hard to overstate how many units would’ve sold at the height of the COVID-19 shutdown, when it looked for much of the summer as if no actual college football would be played. Instead of going for walks, starting home renovation projects or spending quality time with immediate family, we could’ve wasted away those long, tumultuous days challenging LSU’s supremacy with plucky upstart Grayson McCall and Coastal Carolina and built a dynasty. Alas, it was not meant to be.
This also might be the year when EA was most convinced to go back to the old process and select a player who starred in the prior college football season but was now off to the NFL, because Burrow absolutely deserved a cover after his 2019 campaign. If we’re sticking with our precedent of returning players, however, his LSU teammates Stingley and Chase made for exceptional consolation prizes. Stingley starred as a true freshman, anchoring that LSU defense, while Chase was the most dominant receiver on a team absolutely stacked with talent at the position. Parsons would’ve been a nice alternative after offensive players dominated the covers, and Sewell could’ve been a worthy hat tip to big men everywhere. Smith wasn’t exactly heralded as a genuine superstar entering the 2020 season, but he’d racked up 1,256 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior and, by year’s end, would become the first Heisman winner who wasn’t a QB or running back since Charles Woodson.
The cover: Stingley. There were lots of good options here, but Stingley had the recruiting hype, on-field performance, and post-national title glow to warrant a cover, and it’s nice to get away from the QBs and skill position guys on offense. That the rest of Stingley’s LSU career didn’t quite match the freshman hype — largely due to injuries — is unimportant here. LSU was the best team to grace a college football field in decades, and he had a strong argument to be considered its biggest returning star.
NCAA Football 22
Expected release: Summer 2021
The contenders: Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei, Alabama QB Bryce Young, LSU’s Stingley, Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Cincinnati CB Sauce Gardner, Iowa State RB Breece Hall
And so it is that we’ve reached the year in which actual NIL deals were happening around college football, even if EA would need another three years before it could take advantage of the rule change to release a new game. Still, NIL allowed players like Uiagalelei, Young and Stingley to become household names outside of just the college football world, enjoying national endorsement deals and a new level of prestige. But Dr Pepper is one thing. The cover of NCAA Football is another. Young hadn’t taken a meaningful snap yet at Alabama, but his star turn was all but assured. Gardner, fresh off leading Cincinnati to the first playoff berth for a Group of 5 school, might’ve been an intriguing choice, too. A retrospectively amusing option might’ve been J.T. Daniels, who looked poised to take over at QB at Georgia in the summer of 2021, only to lose his job to a former walk-on — who we’ll get to in a bit — a couple months later.
The cover: Uiagalelei. There’s not a clear front-runner among the contenders, but Uiagalelei was probably the biggest name at the time. He’d started two games in relief of Lawrence in 2020 and looked terrific in both. He was a former five-star recruit. He had a big personality, big arm and already had inked some very big endorsement deals. It’s almost hard to imagine now — knowing how it all turned out — but on the heels of Tajh Boyd, Watson and Lawrence excelling at Clemson, Uiagalelei seemed about as close to a surefire star as possible. But hey, maybe in 2023 at Florida State, he’ll actually become one.
NCAA Football 23
Expected release: Summer 2022
The contenders: Georgia DT Jalen Carter, TE Brock Bowers and QB Stetson Bennett, Alabama QB Young and OLB Will Anderson, Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn, USC QB Caleb Williams and WR Jordan Addison, Ohio State QB CJ Stroud, Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke, Texas RB Bijan Robinson, past cover winners
Georgia’s run to a national title allows for plenty of options in Athens, with Bowers the clear headliner, Carter the defensive force, and Bennett the beloved underdog success story. Anderson was coming off one of the best seasons for a pass-rusher in recent memory, and Williams and Robinson had both flashed enough talent in the latter half of 2021 to be primed for even bigger things ahead. And then there’s Young. The prior two Heisman winners to return to school the following year — Winston and Jackson — were our selections to grace the cover, so ignoring Young’s win would be tough. In other words, this would’ve been among the deepest pools of cover candidates during the 11-year absence of the game, but it also would’ve marked the 20th edition of NCAA Football, and it’s entirely possible EA would want to celebrate the occasion with a retrospective, perhaps featuring some past cover models such as Tommie Frazier (from the game’s first cover), Woodson, Tebow or Reggie Bush.
The cover: Bowers, alongside the greats. This is the most elegant solution. Yes, EA should’ve celebrated its 20th installment by putting past stars on the cover, but the best way to blend the old with the new would be to add Bowers — soon to be the game’s most dynamic tight end — to the group.
NCAA Football 24
Expected release: Summer 2023
The contenders: USC’s Williams, Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter, QB Shedeur Sanders and head coach Deion Sanders, Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU LB Harold Perkins, UNC QB Drake Maye
Williams was the defending Heisman winner. Perkins looked like he’d be the biggest star in the sport after a show-stopping freshman campaign. Harrison was already a star with ample name recognition. The entire Colorado story was a cash cow for everyone involved.
The cover: Williams. And perhaps this is the one time we’re grateful for the game’s absence because, as much as we think Williams would’ve been the deserving honoree to grace the cover, there’s also a pretty strong chance the allure of a Coach Prime sales bump would be too hard to ignore, and frankly, Sanders didn’t need any more hype. On the other hand, there’s plenty of time for Prime to win the Big 12, watch as his son wins the Heisman, recruit a top-five class without leaving his office, and nab the cover of NCAA Football 26.
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Greg Wyshynski
The Winnipeg Jets defended star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck after another disastrous performance on the road, a 5-2 loss Friday night in which the St. Louis Blues forced Game 7 in their Stanley Cup Playoff opening-round series.
Hellebuyck was pulled after the second period in favor of backup Eric Comrie, the third straight game in St. Louis that he failed to finish. Hellebuyck surrendered five goals on 23 shots, including four goals on eight shots during a 5-minute, 23-second stretch in the second period that cost the Jets the game.
As has become tradition in this series, Blues fans mockingly chanted, “We want Connor!” after Hellebuyck left the game and the Jets’ bench.
“This isn’t about Connor,” Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said. “Tonight was not about Connor. Tonight, we imploded in front of him. Now, it’s a one-game showdown. It’s our goalie against their goalie, our best players against their best, our grinders against theirs. I have a lot of confidence in our [entire] group — not just Helly.”
Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy last season as the NHL’s top goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. He also won the award in 2019-20 and is the favorite to win it for a third time this season. Hellebuyck is also a finalist for the 2024-25 Hart Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s most valuable player. He was the starting goaltender for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February and was expected to do the same for the U.S. in next year’s Winter Olympics in Italy.
But his recent performances in the Stanley Cup playoffs have been the antithesis of that success.
Over the past three postseasons, two of which the Jets lost in the first round in just five games, Hellebuyck is 5-11 with an .860 save percentage.
Hellebuyck failed to finish any of the three games played in St. Louis during the series. He was pulled with 9:28 left in regulation in Game 3, having given up six goals on 25 shots. In Game 4, Hellebuyck was pulled 2:01 into the third period after surrendering five goals on 18 shots. Hellebuyck has allowed four or more goals in seven straight road playoff games, tying the second-longest streak in Stanley Cup playoff history
At home against the Blues in this series, it has been a different story, if not necessarily a great one: Hellebuyck is 3-0 in Winnipeg, with an .879 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average.
His home numbers in the regular season: 27-3-3 with a .938 save percentage and a 1.63 goals-against average in 33 games. His road numbers: 20-9-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. Hellebuyck was not pulled in his 63 appearances in the regular season.
Even with Hellebuyck’s multiple seasons of playoff struggles, his team exonerated him from blame for the Game 6 loss.
“I don’t need to talk about Bucky,” said forward Nikolaj Ehlers, who returned to the lineup for the first time since April 12 after a foot injury. “He’s been unbelievable for us all year. He’s continued to do that. We’ve got to be better.”
Said forward Cole Perfetti, who had a goal in Game 6: “Things got carried away. We lost our game for four or five minutes. They got a couple pucks through, and they found the back of the net. It’s frustrating. Happened a couple of times now this series where we fell asleep and they jumped on us.”
Perfetti said the Jets have rebounded from losses like this — one reason their confidence isn’t shaken ahead of Sunday’s Game 7.
“We had a loss like that in Game 4 [in St. Louis],” he said. “We went home and got the job done in Game 5. We’ve got the home ice. We’ve got the fans behind us and our barn rocking.”
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Bill Connelly
Almost no word in the English language makes a college football fan more defensive than the L-word: luck.
We weren’t lucky to have a great turnover margin — our coaches are just really good at emphasizing ball security! We’re tougher than everyone else — that’s why we recovered all those fumbles!
We weren’t lucky to win all those close games — we’re clutch! Our coaches know how to press all the right buttons! Our quarterback is a cool customer!
We weren’t lucky to have fewer injuries than everyone else — our strength-and-conditioning coach is the best in America! And again: We’re just tougher!
As loath as we may be to admit it, a large percentage of a given college football season — with its small overall sample of games — is determined by the bounce of a pointy ball, the bend of a ligament and the whims of fate. Certain teams will end up with an unsustainably good turnover margin that turns on them the next year. Certain teams (often the same ones) will enjoy a great run of close-game fortune based on some combination of great coaching, sturdy quarterback play, timely special teams contributions … and massive amounts of unsustainable randomness. Certain teams will keep their starting lineups mostly intact for 12 or more games while another is watching its depth chart change dramatically on a week-to-week basis.
As we prepare for the 2025 college football season, it’s worth stepping back and looking at who did, and didn’t, get the bounces in 2024. Just because Lady Luck was (or wasn’t) on your side one year, doesn’t automatically mean your fortunes will flip the next, but that’s often how these things go. Be it turnovers, close-game fortune or injuries, let’s talk about the teams that were dealt the best and worst hands last fall.
Jump to a section:
Turnover luck | Close games luck
Injuries and general shuffling | Turnaround candidates
Turnover luck
In last year’s ACC championship game, Clemson bolted to a 24-7 halftime lead, then white-knuckled it to the finish. SMU came back to tie the score at 31 with only 16 seconds left, but Nolan Hauser‘s 56-yard field goal at the buzzer gave the Tigers a 34-31 victory and a spot in 2024’s College Football Playoff at Alabama’s expense.
In the first series of the game, Clemson’s T.J. Parker pulled a perfect sack-and-strip of SMU QB Kevin Jennings, forcing and falling on a loose ball at the SMU 33-yard line. Clemson scored two plays later to take a 7-0 lead. Late in the first quarter, Khalil Barnes picked off a Jennings pass near midfield, ending what could have become a scoring threat with one more first down. A few minutes later, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik fumbled at the end of a 14-yard gain, but tight end Jake Briningstool recovered it at midfield, preventing another potential scoring threat from developing. (Klubnik fumbled seven times in the 2024 season but lost only one of them.)
Early in the third quarter, after SMU cut Clemson’s lead to 24-14, David Eziomume fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the Clemson 6, but teammate Keith Adams Jr. recovered it right before two SMU players pounced.
Over 60 minutes, both teams fumbled twice, and Clemson defended (intercepted or broke up) eight passes to SMU’s seven. On average, 50% of fumbles are lost and about 21% of passes defended become INTs, so Clemson’s expected turnover margin in this game was plus-0.2 (because of the extra pass defended). The Tigers’ actual turnover margin was plus-2, a difference of 1.8 turnovers in a game they barely won.
Clemson was obviously a solid team in 2024, but the Tigers probably wouldn’t have reached the CFP without turnovers luck. For the season, they fumbled 16 times but lost only three, and comparing their expected (based on the averages above) and actual turnover margins, almost no one benefited more from the randomness of a bouncing ball.
It probably isn’t a surprise to see that, of last year’s 12 playoff teams, eight benefited from positive turnovers luck, and six were at plus-3.3 or higher. You’ve got to be lucky and good to win, right?
You aren’t often lucky for two straight years, though. It might be noteworthy to point out that, of the teams in Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early 2025 rankings, five were in the top 20 in terms of turnovers luck: No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Clemson, No. 9 BYU, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 17 Indiana (plus two others from his Teams Also Considered list: Army and Baylor).
It’s also noteworthy to point out that three teams on Schlabach’s list — No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU and No. 15 SMU — ranked in the triple-digits in terms of turnovers luck. Oregon started the season 13-0 without the benefit of bounces. For that matter, Auburn, a team on the Also Considered list, ranked 125th in turnovers luck in a season that saw the Tigers go just 1-3 in one-score finishes. There might not have been a more what-could-have-been team in the country than Hugh Freeze’s Tigers.
Close games
One of my favorite tools in my statistical toolbox is what I call postgame win expectancy. The idea is to take all of a game’s key, predictive stats — all the things that end up feeding into my SP+ rankings — and basically toss them into the air and say, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.”
Alabama‘s 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 5 was one of the most impactful results of the CFP race. It was also one of the least likely results of the season in terms of postgame win expectancy. Bama averaged 8.8 yards per play to Vandy’s 5.6, generated a 56% success rate* to Vandy’s 43% and scored touchdowns on all four of its trips into the red zone. It’s really hard to lose when you do all of that — in fact, the Crimson Tide’s postgame win expectancy was a whopping 98.5%. (You can see all postgame win expectancy data here)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth. It is one of the more reliable and predictive stats you’ll find, and it’s a big part of SP+.)
Vandy managed to overcome these stats in part because of two of the most perfect bounces you’ll ever see. In the first, Jalen Milroe had a pass batted at the line, and it deflected high into the air and, eventually, into the arms of Randon Fontenette, who caught it on the run and raced 29 yards for a touchdown and an early 13-0 lead.
In the second half, with Bama driving to potentially take the lead, Miles Capers sacked Milroe and forced a fumble; the ball sat on the ground for what felt like an eternity before Yilanan Ouattara outwrestled a Bama lineman for it. Instead of trailing, Vandy took over near midfield and scored seven plays later. It took turnovers luck and unlikely key-play execution — despite a 43% success rate, Diego Pavia and the Commodores went 12-for-18 on third down and 1-for-1 on fourth — for Vandy to turn a 1.5% postgame win expectancy into a victory. It also wasn’t Alabama’s only incredibly unlikely loss: The Tide were at 87.8% to beat Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl but fell 19-13.
(Ole Miss can feel the Tide’s pain: The Rebels were at 76.0% postgame win expectancy against Kentucky and 73.7% against Florida. There was only a 6% chance that they would lose both games, and even going 1-1 would have likely landed them a CFP bid. They lost both.)
Adding up each game’s postgame win expectancy is a nice way of seeing how many games a team should have won on average. I call this a team’s second-order win total. Alabama was at 10.7 second-order wins but went 9-4. That was one of the biggest differences of the season. Somehow, however, Iron Bowl rival Auburn was even more unfortunate.
Based solely on stats, Arkansas State should have won about four games, and Auburn should have won about eight. Instead, the Red Wolves went 8-5 and the Tigers went 5-7.
Comparing win totals to these second-order wins is one of the surest ways of identifying potential turnaround stories for the following season. In 2023, 15 teams had second-order win totals at least one game higher than their actual win totals — meaning they suffered from poor close-game fortune. Ten of those 15 teams saw their win totals increase by at least two games in 2024, including East Carolina (from 2-10 to 8-5), TCU (5-7 to 9-4), Pitt (3-9 to 7-6), Boise State (8-6 to 12-2) and Louisiana (6-7 to 10-4). On average, these 15 teams improved by 1.9 wins.
On the flip side, 19 teams overachieved their second-order win totals by at least 1.0 wins in 2023. This list includes both of 2023’s national title game participants, Washington and Michigan. The Huskies and Wolverines sank from a combined 29-1 in 2023 to 14-12 in 2024, and it could have been even worse. Michigan overachieved again, going 8-5 despite a second-order win total of 6.0. Other 2023 overachievers weren’t so lucky. Oklahoma State (from 10-4 to 3-9), Wyoming (from 9-4 to 3-9), Northwestern (from 8-5 to 4-8) and NC State (from 9-4 to 6-7) all won more games than the stats expected in 2023, and all of them crumpled to some degree in 2024. On average, the 19 overachieving teams regressed by 1.9 wins last fall.
It’s worth keeping in mind that several teams in Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 — including No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU, No. 11 Iowa State, No. 13 Illinois and, yes, No. 21 Michigan — all exceeded statistical expectations in wins last season, as did Also Considered teams like Army, Duke, Missouri and Texas Tech. The fact that Oregon and LSU overachieved while suffering from poor turnovers luck is (admittedly) rather unlikely and paints a conflicting picture.
Meanwhile, one should note that three Way-Too-Early teams — No. 12 Alabama, No. 23 Miami and No. 25 Ole Miss (plus Washington and, of course, Auburn from the Also Considered list) — all lost more games than expected last season. With just a little bit of good fortune, they could prove to be awfully underrated.
Injuries and general shuffling
Injuries are hard to define in college football — coaches are frequently canny in the information they do and do not provide, and with so many teams in FBS, it’s impossible to derive accurate data regarding how many games were missed due to injury.
We can glean quite a bit from starting lineups, however. Teams with lineups that barely changed throughout the season were probably pretty happy with their overall results, while teams with ever-changing lineups likely succumbed to lots of losses. Below, I’ve ranked teams using a simple ratio: I compared (a) the number of players who either started every game or started all but one for a given team to (b) the number of players who started only one or two games, likely as a stopgap. If you had far more of the former, your team likely avoided major injury issues and, with a couple of major exceptions, thrived. If you had more of the latter, the negative effects were probably pretty obvious.
Despite the presence of 1-11 Purdue and 2-10 Kennesaw State near the top of the list — Purdue fielded one of the worst power conference teams in recent memory and barely could blame injury for its issues — you can still see a decent correlation between a positive ratio and positive results. The six teams with a ratio of at least 2.8 or above went a combined 62-22 in 2024, while the teams with a 0.5 ratio or worse went 31-56.
Seven of nine conference champions had a ratio of at least 1.3, and 11 of the 12 CFP teams were at 1.44 or higher (five were at 2.6 or higher). Indiana, the most shocking of CFP teams, was second on the list above; epic disappointments like Oklahoma and, especially, Florida State were near the bottom. (The fact that Georgia won the SEC and reached the CFP despite a pretty terrible injury ratio speaks volumes about the depth Kirby Smart has built in Athens. Of course, the Dawgs also enjoyed solid turnovers luck.)
Major turnaround candidates
It’s fair to use this information as a reason for skepticism about teams like Indiana (turnovers luck and injuries luck), Clemson (turnovers luck), Iowa State (close-games luck), Penn State (injuries luck) or Sam Houston (all of the above, plus a coaching change), but let’s end on an optimistic note instead. Here are five teams that could pretty easily enjoy a big turnaround if Lady Luck is a little kinder.
Auburn Tigers: Auburn enjoyed a better success rate than its opponents (44.7% to 38.5%) and made more big plays as well (8.9% of plays gained 20-plus yards versus 5.7% for opponents). That makes it awfully hard to lose! But the Tigers made exactly the mistake they couldn’t make and managed to lose games with 94%, 76% and 61% postgame win expectancy. There’s nothing saying this was all bad luck, but even with a modest turnaround in fortune, the Tigers will have a very high ceiling in 2025.
Florida Gators: The Gators improved from 41st to 20th in SP+ and from 5-7 to 8-5 overall despite starting three quarterbacks and 12 different DBs and ranking 132nd on the list above. That says pretty spectacular things about their overall upside, especially considering their improved experience levels on the O-line, in the secondary and the general optimism about sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.
Florida Atlantic Owls: Only one team ranked 111th or worse in all three of the tables above — turnovers luck (111th), second-order win difference (121st) and injury ratio (131st). You could use this information to make the case that the Owls shouldn’t have fired head coach Tom Herman, or you could simply say that new head coach Zach Kittley is pretty well-positioned to get some bounces and hit the ground running.
Florida State Seminoles: There was evidently plenty of poor fortune to go around in the Sunshine State last season, and while Mike Norvell’s Seminoles suffered an epic hangover on the field, they also didn’t get a single bounce: They were 129th in turnovers luck, 99th in second-order win difference and 110th in injury ratio. Norvell has brought in new coordinators and plenty of new players, and the Noles are almost guaranteed to jump up from 2-10. With a little luck, that jump could be a pretty big one.
Utah Utes: Along with UCF, Utah was one of only two teams to start four different quarterbacks in 2024. The Utes were also among only four teams to start at least 11 different receivers or tight ends and among five teams to start at least nine defensive linemen. If you’re looking for an easy explanation for how they fell from 65th to 96th in offensive SP+ and from 8-5 to 5-7 overall, that’s pretty succinct and telling.
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