With Negro League stats, MLB links legends like never before
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
WHEN MLB ANNOUNCED last week that its official statistical record would be updated with the treasure trove of Negro Leagues data researchers have uncovered over the years, it was merely the next step in a story that was already in motion.
It was also a no-brainer.
Those at the highest levels of Black baseball in the decades before Jackie Robinson were playing at a major league level. The players in those games knew that. The white players who played against those players — and often lost to them — knew it. Anyone who has studied the history of Negro Leagues baseball with any kind of a clear mind has always known it.
For decades, though, history-inclined fans were able to ignore the numbers put up by segregation-era Black players because the statistical record was considered incomplete, murky and unverifiable. Up to a certain point, that was true — but no longer.
Thanks to the remarkable efforts of baseball statistical archaeologists, much of the record has been restored. It has been compiled with carefully thought-out procedures and methods. The numbers aren’t perfect, but that’s true of most numbers from baseball’s early history.
And their imperfections make the effect no less miraculous. These updates don’t make the likes of Bullet Rogan, Martin Dihigo or Cool Papa Bell any more major league than they already were. Instead, they give those legends new life by putting them in the same leaderboards as Lefty Grove, Shohei Ohtani and Rickey Henderson. The numbers link those players together, just as they always should have been.
The merger of those databases — that of the old official major league record and the new one — rekindles old stories and gives them a larger audience. It gives solid footing to the mythology that has always surrounded them, though the mythology itself will remain, just as it has for all of baseball’s early stars. In taking this next step in an ongoing project, baseball now has the most complete and accurate official record it has ever had.
They are numbers, just numbers, but in baseball, numbers have always meant so much. They mean even more now.
THE LEADING BASEBALL statistical sites — Baseball Reference and Fangraphs — started folding in Negro League data some time ago. MLB took more time, but after all, the league’s record is the record, and it had to get it right. Even now, some of the numbers among these leading sources vary. This has always been the case, but now there are a lot more discrepancies.
But it’s important to keep in mind the reality that the record has always been dynamic, ever since the first Baseball Encyclopedia was compiled in the late 1960s. (It, sadly, did not include the numbers from Black baseball that are now available.)
For example: For nearly 70 years, the all-time single-season RBI record was 190, set by Hack Wilson of the Cubs in 1930. In 1999, someone figured out that an RBI that should have gone to Wilson 69 years before had been inadvertently attributed to a teammate. Someone else signed off on that discovery, and suddenly the all-time single-season RBI record was 191. Good research changes the record.
Last week’s news meant that Josh Gibson, not Ty Cobb, is now the “official” all-time batting king, with his .372 surpassing Cobb’s .367. But .367 probably wasn’t right anyway. Research conducted a few years ago determined that Cobb’s 4,191 career hits, a number long recognized and the one that Pete Rose surpassed back in 1985, is at least two hits too high, which drops the rounded career average down to .366, the number you see at Baseball Reference. That site also has Gibson at .373 against major league competition, but doesn’t list him as the all-time batting champ (for now), likely because of qualification standards that differ from those on which MLB’s research committee landed.
No one can say for certain that Gibson should rank above Cobb in career batting average, nor should he outflank Ted Williams’ on-base percentage or Babe Ruth’s slugging percentage. The converse of these things is also true. Williams never played a regular-season game against a Negro League team, nor did he play one against a National League team. Likewise, Stan Musial’s remarkable record of breadth and consistency did not include any regular-season contests against AL pitchers. Until 1997, there simply was no such thing as interleague play.
The leagues were their own entities and when we contextualize statistics from those days, we adjust for AL context or NL context, not some imagined overall MLB context. The Negro Leagues deserve the same consideration.
After all, the argument that the Negro Leagues weren’t comparable in quality seems harder to make when you investigate the evidence. From the time that Robinson broke the color line, other standouts from Black baseball followed. And they weren’t just any major leaguers — they were among the very best players of their era and beyond. Phillip Lee, author of the essential “Black Stats Matter,” notes that among the first 20 Black players in the extant majors, beginning with Robinson, there were four Rookie of the Year winners, one Cy Young winner, seven MVP winners and eight Hall of Famers. Lee’s entire book is a convincing argument that statistics from the top Negro Leagues should very much be taken at face value.
Even in the years before Robinson, we have plenty of evidence of the strength of the Negro Leagues through an ever-growing database of exhibition encounters between Black and white teams. The authority on these games is researcher Todd Peterson, who has credited Negro Leagues teams with winning about 53% of the more than 600 contests against white teams between 1900 and 1948.
Do these numbers need to be understood in context? Of course. All numbers do.
And luckily, these days we have better tools for doing that than ever. Now we have a better and more complete dataset to work with than ever before, one that folds in crucial chapters of baseball history that have too long been ignored.
JOSH GIBSON’S JOURNEY to becoming MLB’s all-time batting champ is steeped in mythology. For decades what we heard about him was that, all told, he hit more than 800 homers — including exhibitions, league games, winter games, etc. — and perhaps as many as 1,000. This linked him not to Cobb, but Ruth. But that number was seen as a legend, taken no more seriously than the tales of Gibson hitting 700-foot bombs.
Yet stories of Gibson’s real, legit greatness only grew over time, as people shared their recollections, documentaries were made and books were written. Buck O’Neil connected Gibson to Ruth by the thundering clap he heard that they — and only they — made when making contact.
In the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, James called Gibson, “Probably the greatest catcher in baseball history, and probably the greatest right-handed power hitter.” In 1972, he became the third Negro Leagues player to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, following Paige and Buck Leonard.
Now, Gibson’s Baseball Reference page takes on extra meaning. The term “black ink” has long been used to denote the boldface font a number gets when it leads a league. Great players tend to have records with a lot of black ink. Gibson’s table seemingly has more black ink than regular font.
Year after year, Gibson led the Negro National League in homers and RBIs, OPS and OPS+. For every 162 league games he played, he rolled up 217 hits, 36 doubles, 16 triples, 45 homers, 165 runs and an astounding 197 RBIs.
We have many good analytical tools for making sense of all that and for bringing those numbers into comparison with AL and NL players. Gibson doesn’t currently meet the qualifying standards at Baseball Reference, but if he did, his 214 OPS+ would outflank Ruth’s 206 for the best of all time. According to Fangraphs, his 202 wRC+ tops the charts, ahead of Ruth’s 194.
If you go to MLB’s all-time leaderboard — the one that matters most — all you have to do is sort the OPS column. Gibson’s 1.177 OPS leads Ruth (1.164), Williams (1.116), Lou Gehrig (1.079) and Charleston (1.061). That’s what an all-time leaderboard should look like.
We can debate from there about who should rank where. We can point out that Gibson’s number is based on many fewer games than Ruth or Williams. We can debate the relative strengths of the leagues, the AL vs. NL, the AL vs. the Negro National League, etc. We can measure the standard deviation of performance in the leagues to help make the comparisons from one circuit to the next that much sharper. But all of these debates will begin with a list of names that finally makes sense.
NO ONE IS more ensconced in mythology than Paige, someone who has had more stories told about him (real or not) than perhaps any player in history with the likely exception of Ruth. The stories are so rich and plentiful that it almost obscures just how good Paige was as a pitcher.
How good? James wrote, “Satchel deserves to rank with Cy Young, Lefty Grove and Walter Johnson as the guys you talk about when you’re trying to figure out who was the greatest that ever lived.” Hall of Fame pitcher Dizzy Dean, a contemporary of Paige and frequent loser to him in head-to-head exhibitions, said, “If Satch and I were pitching on the same team, we’d clinch the pennant by the Fourth of July and go fishing until World Series time.” Joe DiMaggio said that Paige was the best — and fastest — hurler he ever faced.
With the numbers to back up statements like those, we no longer have to settle for marveling at how Paige finally joined the major leagues at some indeterminate point after he turned 40 and proceeded to go 6-1 with a 165 ERA+ on what remains Cleveland’s last championship team. Well, we can still marvel at that, and his All-Star Game appearance in 1953, when his official age was 46, but we don’t have to stop there.
Now, we can marvel at all that black ink on Paige’s Baseball Reference page and the fact that Paige led the league in strikeout rate at age 20, then again at 38. We can pull up the leaderboard in ERA+ and see that Paige’s 150 lands him in the top 10, between Pedro Martinez and Grove.
And Paige isn’t even the highest-ranking pitcher by ERA+ from the Negro Leagues. Ahead of him are Bill Foster and Bullet Rogan, who are both always included in debates about who the best pitcher in Negro Leagues history was.
Paige’s total is tied with that of Jim Devlin, a pitcher from the years 1875 to 1877. The rules of the game then were wildly different than the ones we know now. But Devlin’s leagues, first the National Association and then the first seasons of the National League, were deemed major. He is there. Now Paige is too.
That’s what a leaderboard should look like.
YOU CAN GO through a similar exercise with so many Negro Leagues players, all in an effort to pull them from the realm of legend into the realm of the tangible. To give them the consideration they earned so long ago.
Oscar Charleston, who might have been the best player ever, is top-10 in average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. His OPS+ at Baseball Reference ranks third, between Williams and Bonds. The numbers back up what we thought about Charleston.
Turkey Stearnes, often overlooked in discussions about the greats, ranks sixth in OPS+. As a left-handed hitter with acuity in both average and power, James compared him to Williams and Mel Ott. The numbers back it up.
Bell has always been known as much for the awesome “Cool Papa” moniker, plus the story about him being so fast he could flip a light switch and be under the covers before the room went dark. But like Henderson, he played for 25 seasons (including a stretch in Mexico). Like Henderson, he annually led his leagues in steals. He scored 155 runs for every 162 games he played; Henderson’s comparable figure was 121.
When Ohtani joined the majors, it was Martín Dihigo, not Ruth, to whom he should have been compared. The bulk of Dihigo’s remarkable career unfolded in Cuba, but in the TK seasons he played in the Negro Leagues, he managed to post a 138 OPS+ over 1,617 plate appearances and a 141 ERA+ over 402 innings on the mound. Dihigo performed as a star-level hitter and pitcher at the same time over a number of seasons, which makes him the natural antecedent of Ohtani, who has a 151 OPS+ and 143 ERA+ during his MLB career.
Stories and myths are part of baseball, the best part in many ways, and we aren’t going to lose those. But for Negro Leaguers, myths and stories were all that we had for too long.
Now, we have hard numbers to back up those stories. And the farther we are removed from those days, the more the numbers will lead us back to the stories, not the other way around. That, more than anything, is why this change needed to happen.
THE PROCESS OF creating the best possible historical record is ongoing. Just this week, SABR recognized 43 independent teams from Black baseball as major and added the 1949 and 1950 Negro American League campaigns to the list, as well.
For now, this doesn’t change the official record. Still, MLB has pledged to continue considering new research in the future, and there is more than a little overlap of the names on the SABR committee and MLB’s Negro Leagues Statistical Review Committee. Stay tuned.
Among implications of new research is that the all-time leaderboards will continue to evolve. Cobb could even retake the all-time batting crown from Gibson, if some of the latter’s early seasons are added to the record.
All of this is great. Embracing research with open arms keeps history in the state that it should be — always in motion, always freshly understood and re-evaluated as new evidence comes to light and much-needed new perspectives are considered. Baseball is no different in that regard.
The addition of the still-emerging statistical record of the Negro Leagues doesn’t obscure the all-time major league leaderboards. It clarifies them.
Week 4 is here as we dive into another weekend of college football madness.
The biggest story going into Saturday’s slate of games is if Arch Manning will get his first college start. After capturing the attention of fans, he’ll have a lot to live up to in the spotlight as Texas faces UL Monroe.
USC will be making an appearance at the Big House for the first time in over 60 years as its visit will kick off conference play for the Trojans. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, No. 24 Illinois visits No. 22 Nebraska where one Illinois receiver lives out a different version of a dream he once had.
Before all of this plays out, Appalachian State gets things started as it hosts South Alabama on Thursday.
Our college football experts give insight on players, sound and storylines going into Week 4.
Jump to a section:
Texas QB depth | Illinois’ Pat Bryant | Must needs to win
New conference enemy | Quotes of the week
Stacked QB rooms are nothing new at Texas
Todd Dodge has a unique vantage point to the hysteria around Arch Manning, who made a national splash in his first extensive playing time at Texas after starter and Heisman Trophy candidate Quinn Ewers sustained an oblique injury.
Dodge, a quarterback guru and legendary Texas high school coach with seven state championships — including three-peats at two different schools — lived in the burnt orange spotlight himself. As the first Texas high school quarterback to throw for more than 3,000 yards in a season in 1980, he was a star recruit for the Longhorns who started as a celebrity backup himself.
“The most popular guy in any college town is the No. 2 quarterback,” said Dodge, now the coach at Lovejoy High School in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. “I’ve been the No. 2 where I couldn’t buy my own dinner and everybody wanted to let me know how much they thought I ought to be playing. And I’ve been the No. 1 who’s played well, who was probably over-fawned-over and then I’ve been the No. 1 when the team lost and I didn’t play well and I’m the biggest bum in three counties.”
He said fans often assume a quarterback room is filled with jealousy or back-biting, but in his career, he has found it to be the opposite, which Steve Sarkisian reiterated Monday when he said nothing changes if Manning starts. The bond between Ewers and his backup is evident, Dodge said. And he is familiar with both players and their families, namely Ewers, because his son Riley, was Ewers’ head coach at Southlake Carroll.
“They’re very, very talented young men that both could be playing almost anywhere in the country, but the No. 2’s family [the Mannings] put tremendous value in development and patience,” he said. “To me, that takes a little bit of the angst off of me as the starter knowing that I don’t have a backup who’s out there just every waning minute trying to convince people that he ought to be the guy.”
Greg Davis, too, experienced the attention in his time in Austin. In 1998, Major Applewhite went 8-2 as the starter, was selected Big 12 Freshman of the Year, then Texas landed the No. 1 prospect in the country, Chris Simms, the well-pedigreed son of New York Giants legend Phil Simms. For the next three years, Simms and Applewhite both had their high points, and both served as co-starters. How do you manage that situation?
“Obviously you don’t live in a vacuum,” according to Davis, offensive coordinator under Mack Brown. “You’re aware of what they say in the grocery store.” Davis has ties to the Mannings himself. He recruited Eli alongside Simms, recruited Peyton at Arkansas and offered Arch’s dad, Cooper, when he was coaching at Tulane.
Davis said the pressure inside the building doesn’t come from attention or fans in the grocery store. It comes from picking the player who had the best chance to win. For Dodge, there’s no question, especially after seeing Ewers beat Oklahoma, then Alabama and Michigan in huge road victories.
“Gosh, all of us Texas fans are fired up about what Arch did the other day,” Dodge said. “But in the big picture, there’s a reason why Quinn Ewers is the starter. When you start having to face Georgia and people like that, well, it doesn’t mean that Arch Manning can’t have a bang-up game against a Georgia or an Alabama. It’s just that Quinn Ewers has already done it.” — Dave Wilson
Illinois’ Bryant dreams big after being molded through tragedy
Tattoos are filling up Pat Bryant’s body, memorializing those whose lives once ran parallel to his but diverged and ended far too soon.
Bryant, the star senior wide receiver for No. 24 Illinois, now has four tattoos honoring his friends from Jacksonville, Florida, who have died in recent years. One of the most painful came only two days after Bryant and the Illini played in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, when Bryant’s best friend, Alim Denson, nicknamed “Twin,” died while in prison.
“A lot of those guys, I grew up playing sports with, we all had the same dream,” Bryant said. “Being able to reach my dream, knowing they’re looking down on me, they’re very, very proud. Also, for the kids of the community, I want to show them that there’s more to life than gun violence, drugs. I just want to be a great role model for my community.”
Bryant, who leads Illinois with 235 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season, has contributed to a new community, far from home. He was named a team captain last month, as he prepared for his third season as a starter.
The 6-foot-3 Bryant received 33 scholarship offers in high school, including all the in-state schools, except the one he truly wanted, Florida, where both of his parents attended. Bryant committed to Illinois in June 2020, essentially sight unseen, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But in mid-December, just before the end of a delayed and shortened season, Illinois fired coach Lovie Smith. The first high school signing day was just three days away. Wide receivers coach Andrew Hayes-Stoker called Bryant and encouraged him to sign anyway, which he did. Three days later, Illinois hired Bret Bielema to replace Smith.
When Bryant finally visited Champaign, there was some confusion.
“I flew in, thinking the University of Illinois was in Chicago,” Bryant said. “I get off the plane, we get in an Uber, they’re taking us to the dorm, and I’m just waiting to see the big skyline. And I see corn field after corn field. I was like, ‘There’s no way,’ but I adapted to where I was. Great college town.”
Bryant has built a strong connection to Champaign. Earlier this month, he and two teammates pooled their NIL earnings to donate backpacks and school supplies to local children. Bryant’s desire to give back stems in part from his father, Patrick, the athletic director of the Police Athletic League of Jacksonville, which places officers to help with youth sports programs around the city. Pat Jr. played basketball and flag football in the league.
“He’s been nothing but a class example of everything we believe in here,” Bielema said.
After seven touchdown catches in 2023, Bryant is on pace for a breakout season, which continues Friday night at No. 22 Nebraska. Bielema has received good reviews from NFL scouts on Bryant, who also excels with run blocking. Bryant’s path reminds Bielema of the Atlanta Falcons’ Casey Washington.
At a morning meeting after Illinois’ second win, Bielema recognized Bryant as the team’s top overall performer.
“He lives a routine every day that gives him an advantage,” Bielema said. “We talked about how he’s in the building by 5:15 a.m., he doesn’t have to be checked in by 6:30. It’s just an awesome thing to witness. He knows where he’s at, he knows how to take care of himself. Unfortunately, he’s had some tragedy in his life and it helps motivate him for the future.”
Bryant plays for Denson and the other friends he has lost, but he’s also focused on his current teammates.
“I feel like I have a powerful voice, I can relate to everyone on the team,” he said. “I feel people respect me, not only because of my game but because of the kind of person I am.” — Adam Rittenberg
What teams need to capitalize on to win
Utah: Any sort of analysis about this game for the Utes has to begin with the status of quarterback Cam Rising. There hasn’t been an official update about whether he will play, but it’s hard not to interpret the fact that he spoke to reporters this week about the game as an indicator he will be available — unless it’s an elaborate form of gamesmanship, which cannot be ruled out. After falling behind 14-3 to Utah State last week, the Utes were able to come back and win comfortably, but it’s important the Utes don’t follow that script again. Independent of whether Rising plays, the Utes are at their best when the running game does the heavy lifting, and it does not suit their strengths to go into catch-up mode. This is especially true against an explosive offense like Oklahoma State. The best-case scenario here for the Utes is if Rising plays, they establish Micah Bernard early and neutralize Ollie Gordon II to a reasonable degree. — Kyle Bonagura
Oklahoma State: With back-to-back games against Utah and Kansas State to begin the 2024 Big 12 slate, Oklahoma State is about to enter a season-defining stretch. What better way for the Cowboys to make a statement in the Big 12 title hunt than by figuring out the running game and unleashing reigning Doak Walker Award winner Gordon in Week 4?
Coach Mike Gundy says he’s “not concerned” about Oklahoma State’s start on the ground this seasos. But through Week 3, the Cowboys rank 105th in rushing among FBS offenses and Gordon is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, down from 6.1 in 2023 when Gordon finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting. Oklahoma State leaned on its passing game to storm past Tulsa last Saturday when Gordon carried 17 times for just 41 yards. Relying so heavily on quarterback Alan Bowman won’t be as easy this weekend against Utah’s 26th-ranked pass defense. The Cowboys’ broader College Football Playoff aspirations probably hinge on finding a way to get Gordon and the run game going. Saturday against Utah is a good place for them to start. — Eli Lederman
Get to know your new conference enemy
With so much anticipation heading into this season about the new West Coast additions of the Big Ten playing matchups like this one, it’s hard to believe how much USC and Michigan have already switched roles.
The defending national champion has not looked the part after losing its head coach in Jim Harbaugh, but also plenty of talent on the field such as quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Blake Corum, among several others. After losing 31-12 to Texas at home and struggling on offense last week against Arkansas State, this isn’t exactly looking like the encore Wolverines fans envisioned.
Now, USC comes to town for its first marquee Big Ten game, looking far removed from the bitter end it had to the Caleb Williams era last year. After firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, Lincoln Riley revamped the defensive staff with former UCLA coordinator D’Anton Lynn, and after a statement win over LSU in the opener and a shutout of Utah State at home, the Trojans are coming off a bye week and look to be on the way up.
Despite any momentum USC might have, the concept of playing — and winning — a road game in the Big House looms large on any opponent, especially one that hasn’t been there since 1958. Though USC players keep harping on their improved physicality in the trenches being the deciding factor in this game, Riley has remained adamant over the past week that despite its struggles, Michigan is a really good team with NFL-caliber players. You can see how much he is trying to will his team to not view itself as the favorites, even if the odds say so.
“Everybody wants to write the story after a couple of games in the season for everyone,” Riley said this week. “And it’s a long season, man. That’s a good football team that we have a lot of respect for. To have anything less would be a mistake on our part.” — Paolo Uggetti
Quotes of the week
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“Yeah, there’s an old quarterback from Muleshoe, Texas that’s going to come out of retirement, can see if his legs still got it,” Lincoln Riley, smiling, when asked if USC has someone on the scout team that can replicate what Michigan QB Alex Orji does on the ground. “No, we got a couple of guys that we’re trying to use a little bit. But he’s a really good athlete. I told people last night I was familiar with him. We recruited him a little bit coming out of high school, remember, I have a lot of respect for him as a player and an athlete.”
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“I thought that they were trying to make it hard on us, to be honest with you,” Mike Gundy said Monday with Oklahoma State staring down back-to-back meetings against conference favorites Utah and Kansas State to open Big 12 play. “Commissioner [Brett Yormark] is my buddy, but he doesn’t do the scheduling. So, I’ve sent the wrong guy pecans for Christmas. I should’ve sent the scheduling guy pecans for Christmas.”
NEW YORK — Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies clinched their third consecutive playoff appearance Friday night with a 12-2 victory over the New York Mets.
Assured at least a National League wild card, the Phillies can secure their first NL East title since 2011 with one more win this weekend against the second-place Mets at Citi Field.
With the division crown so close, Philadelphia planned a mellow celebration following Friday night’s game — hoping to let loose soon with a boozy clubhouse bash after locking up first place.
Seeking their third World Series championship, the Phillies overtook Atlanta for the division lead on May 3 and haven’t trailed since. Their victory coupled with the Braves’ 4-3 loss in Miami eliminated Atlanta from contention for the NL East crown — ending its six-year reign atop the division.
Alec Bohm had four hits and four RBIs, including a three-run homer, in Friday night’s blowout. Nick Castellanos had three hits and two RBIs, J.T. Realmuto added a two-run homer and the Phillies extended their NL East lead to seven games over the second-place Mets (85-69) with eight to play.
Philadelphia stole five bases — four in a six-run fourth inning capped by Bohm’s homer off reliever Adam Ottavino. Johan Rojas had a two-run double off starter David Peterson (9-3), who was pulled after just 64 pitches and 3 2/3 innings — his shortest start of the season.
Cristopher Sanchez (11-9) overcame a shaky start and five walks in five innings for the win. Philadelphia outhit the Mets 17-4.
Philadelphia (92-62) has the best record in the major leagues and is on track for a first-round bye in the playoffs. It’s the third time the Phillies have reached the postseason three years in a row (1976-78 and 2007-11).
Philadelphia won five straight NL East titles from 2007-11, then went 10 years without making the playoffs. A wild-card entry each of the past two postseasons, the Phillies put together consecutive October runs that ended in heartbreak.
They reached the 2022 World Series, losing to Houston in six games, and dropped a seven-game NL Championship Series to Arizona last year after leading the underdog Diamondbacks 2-0 and 3-2.
So this time, the Phillies are looking to go all the way and finally finish the job.
Philadelphia’s only World Series championships came in 1980 and 2008.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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