With Negro League stats, MLB links legends like never before
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
WHEN MLB ANNOUNCED last week that its official statistical record would be updated with the treasure trove of Negro Leagues data researchers have uncovered over the years, it was merely the next step in a story that was already in motion.
It was also a no-brainer.
Those at the highest levels of Black baseball in the decades before Jackie Robinson were playing at a major league level. The players in those games knew that. The white players who played against those players — and often lost to them — knew it. Anyone who has studied the history of Negro Leagues baseball with any kind of a clear mind has always known it.
For decades, though, history-inclined fans were able to ignore the numbers put up by segregation-era Black players because the statistical record was considered incomplete, murky and unverifiable. Up to a certain point, that was true — but no longer.
Thanks to the remarkable efforts of baseball statistical archaeologists, much of the record has been restored. It has been compiled with carefully thought-out procedures and methods. The numbers aren’t perfect, but that’s true of most numbers from baseball’s early history.
And their imperfections make the effect no less miraculous. These updates don’t make the likes of Bullet Rogan, Martin Dihigo or Cool Papa Bell any more major league than they already were. Instead, they give those legends new life by putting them in the same leaderboards as Lefty Grove, Shohei Ohtani and Rickey Henderson. The numbers link those players together, just as they always should have been.
The merger of those databases — that of the old official major league record and the new one — rekindles old stories and gives them a larger audience. It gives solid footing to the mythology that has always surrounded them, though the mythology itself will remain, just as it has for all of baseball’s early stars. In taking this next step in an ongoing project, baseball now has the most complete and accurate official record it has ever had.
They are numbers, just numbers, but in baseball, numbers have always meant so much. They mean even more now.
THE LEADING BASEBALL statistical sites — Baseball Reference and Fangraphs — started folding in Negro League data some time ago. MLB took more time, but after all, the league’s record is the record, and it had to get it right. Even now, some of the numbers among these leading sources vary. This has always been the case, but now there are a lot more discrepancies.
But it’s important to keep in mind the reality that the record has always been dynamic, ever since the first Baseball Encyclopedia was compiled in the late 1960s. (It, sadly, did not include the numbers from Black baseball that are now available.)
For example: For nearly 70 years, the all-time single-season RBI record was 190, set by Hack Wilson of the Cubs in 1930. In 1999, someone figured out that an RBI that should have gone to Wilson 69 years before had been inadvertently attributed to a teammate. Someone else signed off on that discovery, and suddenly the all-time single-season RBI record was 191. Good research changes the record.
Last week’s news meant that Josh Gibson, not Ty Cobb, is now the “official” all-time batting king, with his .372 surpassing Cobb’s .367. But .367 probably wasn’t right anyway. Research conducted a few years ago determined that Cobb’s 4,191 career hits, a number long recognized and the one that Pete Rose surpassed back in 1985, is at least two hits too high, which drops the rounded career average down to .366, the number you see at Baseball Reference. That site also has Gibson at .373 against major league competition, but doesn’t list him as the all-time batting champ (for now), likely because of qualification standards that differ from those on which MLB’s research committee landed.
No one can say for certain that Gibson should rank above Cobb in career batting average, nor should he outflank Ted Williams’ on-base percentage or Babe Ruth’s slugging percentage. The converse of these things is also true. Williams never played a regular-season game against a Negro League team, nor did he play one against a National League team. Likewise, Stan Musial’s remarkable record of breadth and consistency did not include any regular-season contests against AL pitchers. Until 1997, there simply was no such thing as interleague play.
The leagues were their own entities and when we contextualize statistics from those days, we adjust for AL context or NL context, not some imagined overall MLB context. The Negro Leagues deserve the same consideration.
After all, the argument that the Negro Leagues weren’t comparable in quality seems harder to make when you investigate the evidence. From the time that Robinson broke the color line, other standouts from Black baseball followed. And they weren’t just any major leaguers — they were among the very best players of their era and beyond. Phillip Lee, author of the essential “Black Stats Matter,” notes that among the first 20 Black players in the extant majors, beginning with Robinson, there were four Rookie of the Year winners, one Cy Young winner, seven MVP winners and eight Hall of Famers. Lee’s entire book is a convincing argument that statistics from the top Negro Leagues should very much be taken at face value.
Even in the years before Robinson, we have plenty of evidence of the strength of the Negro Leagues through an ever-growing database of exhibition encounters between Black and white teams. The authority on these games is researcher Todd Peterson, who has credited Negro Leagues teams with winning about 53% of the more than 600 contests against white teams between 1900 and 1948.
Do these numbers need to be understood in context? Of course. All numbers do.
And luckily, these days we have better tools for doing that than ever. Now we have a better and more complete dataset to work with than ever before, one that folds in crucial chapters of baseball history that have too long been ignored.
JOSH GIBSON’S JOURNEY to becoming MLB’s all-time batting champ is steeped in mythology. For decades what we heard about him was that, all told, he hit more than 800 homers — including exhibitions, league games, winter games, etc. — and perhaps as many as 1,000. This linked him not to Cobb, but Ruth. But that number was seen as a legend, taken no more seriously than the tales of Gibson hitting 700-foot bombs.
Yet stories of Gibson’s real, legit greatness only grew over time, as people shared their recollections, documentaries were made and books were written. Buck O’Neil connected Gibson to Ruth by the thundering clap he heard that they — and only they — made when making contact.
In the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, James called Gibson, “Probably the greatest catcher in baseball history, and probably the greatest right-handed power hitter.” In 1972, he became the third Negro Leagues player to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, following Paige and Buck Leonard.
Now, Gibson’s Baseball Reference page takes on extra meaning. The term “black ink” has long been used to denote the boldface font a number gets when it leads a league. Great players tend to have records with a lot of black ink. Gibson’s table seemingly has more black ink than regular font.
Year after year, Gibson led the Negro National League in homers and RBIs, OPS and OPS+. For every 162 league games he played, he rolled up 217 hits, 36 doubles, 16 triples, 45 homers, 165 runs and an astounding 197 RBIs.
We have many good analytical tools for making sense of all that and for bringing those numbers into comparison with AL and NL players. Gibson doesn’t currently meet the qualifying standards at Baseball Reference, but if he did, his 214 OPS+ would outflank Ruth’s 206 for the best of all time. According to Fangraphs, his 202 wRC+ tops the charts, ahead of Ruth’s 194.
If you go to MLB’s all-time leaderboard — the one that matters most — all you have to do is sort the OPS column. Gibson’s 1.177 OPS leads Ruth (1.164), Williams (1.116), Lou Gehrig (1.079) and Charleston (1.061). That’s what an all-time leaderboard should look like.
We can debate from there about who should rank where. We can point out that Gibson’s number is based on many fewer games than Ruth or Williams. We can debate the relative strengths of the leagues, the AL vs. NL, the AL vs. the Negro National League, etc. We can measure the standard deviation of performance in the leagues to help make the comparisons from one circuit to the next that much sharper. But all of these debates will begin with a list of names that finally makes sense.
NO ONE IS more ensconced in mythology than Paige, someone who has had more stories told about him (real or not) than perhaps any player in history with the likely exception of Ruth. The stories are so rich and plentiful that it almost obscures just how good Paige was as a pitcher.
How good? James wrote, “Satchel deserves to rank with Cy Young, Lefty Grove and Walter Johnson as the guys you talk about when you’re trying to figure out who was the greatest that ever lived.” Hall of Fame pitcher Dizzy Dean, a contemporary of Paige and frequent loser to him in head-to-head exhibitions, said, “If Satch and I were pitching on the same team, we’d clinch the pennant by the Fourth of July and go fishing until World Series time.” Joe DiMaggio said that Paige was the best — and fastest — hurler he ever faced.
With the numbers to back up statements like those, we no longer have to settle for marveling at how Paige finally joined the major leagues at some indeterminate point after he turned 40 and proceeded to go 6-1 with a 165 ERA+ on what remains Cleveland’s last championship team. Well, we can still marvel at that, and his All-Star Game appearance in 1953, when his official age was 46, but we don’t have to stop there.
Now, we can marvel at all that black ink on Paige’s Baseball Reference page and the fact that Paige led the league in strikeout rate at age 20, then again at 38. We can pull up the leaderboard in ERA+ and see that Paige’s 150 lands him in the top 10, between Pedro Martinez and Grove.
And Paige isn’t even the highest-ranking pitcher by ERA+ from the Negro Leagues. Ahead of him are Bill Foster and Bullet Rogan, who are both always included in debates about who the best pitcher in Negro Leagues history was.
Paige’s total is tied with that of Jim Devlin, a pitcher from the years 1875 to 1877. The rules of the game then were wildly different than the ones we know now. But Devlin’s leagues, first the National Association and then the first seasons of the National League, were deemed major. He is there. Now Paige is too.
That’s what a leaderboard should look like.
YOU CAN GO through a similar exercise with so many Negro Leagues players, all in an effort to pull them from the realm of legend into the realm of the tangible. To give them the consideration they earned so long ago.
Oscar Charleston, who might have been the best player ever, is top-10 in average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. His OPS+ at Baseball Reference ranks third, between Williams and Bonds. The numbers back up what we thought about Charleston.
Turkey Stearnes, often overlooked in discussions about the greats, ranks sixth in OPS+. As a left-handed hitter with acuity in both average and power, James compared him to Williams and Mel Ott. The numbers back it up.
Bell has always been known as much for the awesome “Cool Papa” moniker, plus the story about him being so fast he could flip a light switch and be under the covers before the room went dark. But like Henderson, he played for 25 seasons (including a stretch in Mexico). Like Henderson, he annually led his leagues in steals. He scored 155 runs for every 162 games he played; Henderson’s comparable figure was 121.
When Ohtani joined the majors, it was Martín Dihigo, not Ruth, to whom he should have been compared. The bulk of Dihigo’s remarkable career unfolded in Cuba, but in the TK seasons he played in the Negro Leagues, he managed to post a 138 OPS+ over 1,617 plate appearances and a 141 ERA+ over 402 innings on the mound. Dihigo performed as a star-level hitter and pitcher at the same time over a number of seasons, which makes him the natural antecedent of Ohtani, who has a 151 OPS+ and 143 ERA+ during his MLB career.
Stories and myths are part of baseball, the best part in many ways, and we aren’t going to lose those. But for Negro Leaguers, myths and stories were all that we had for too long.
Now, we have hard numbers to back up those stories. And the farther we are removed from those days, the more the numbers will lead us back to the stories, not the other way around. That, more than anything, is why this change needed to happen.
THE PROCESS OF creating the best possible historical record is ongoing. Just this week, SABR recognized 43 independent teams from Black baseball as major and added the 1949 and 1950 Negro American League campaigns to the list, as well.
For now, this doesn’t change the official record. Still, MLB has pledged to continue considering new research in the future, and there is more than a little overlap of the names on the SABR committee and MLB’s Negro Leagues Statistical Review Committee. Stay tuned.
Among implications of new research is that the all-time leaderboards will continue to evolve. Cobb could even retake the all-time batting crown from Gibson, if some of the latter’s early seasons are added to the record.
All of this is great. Embracing research with open arms keeps history in the state that it should be — always in motion, always freshly understood and re-evaluated as new evidence comes to light and much-needed new perspectives are considered. Baseball is no different in that regard.
The addition of the still-emerging statistical record of the Negro Leagues doesn’t obscure the all-time major league leaderboards. It clarifies them.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
The 2025 MLB draft is underway on ESPN, with the Washington Nationals starting things off by taking prep shortstop Eli Willits with the No. 1 overall pick.
The Los Angeles Angels followed up by picking college pitcher Tyler Bremner and the Seattle Mariners nabbed another in Kade Anderson at third. The Colorado Rockies took prep shortstop Ethan Holliday, who had been in the mix to go first overall, with the fourth pick, and the St. Louis Cardinals rounded out the top five by selecting college pitcher Liam Doyle.
Who will be the biggest steals — and stretches — of Day 1?
Follow along for pick-by-pick coverage, with ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield and Dan Mullen breaking down everything you need to know about who your favorite team took in the first round as the picks come off the board.
Final mock draft | Draft rankings: Top 250 | Big question for all 30 teams
1. Washington Nationals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (Okla.)
Draft ranking: No. 3
Who is Willits? The son of former Angels outfielder Reggie Willits, Eli is one of a deep group of high school shortstops in this draft. He reclassified to the 2025 class, so is one of the younger players in the draft, not turning 18 until December, a big plus in analytic draft models. He’s a clear shortstop with a good hit tool and contact ability, with his future power outcome the biggest question mark as he turns pro.
Why the Nationals took him here: There was a lot of intrigue about which direction the Nationals would go in a draft without a slam-dunk No. 1 pick — and Washington surprised everyone with this pick. Willits was one of the top players in this draft, but he was behind Ethan Holliday and Kade Anderson as options to go No. 1 overall. He’s one of the youngest prospects in this draft — and that’s a very good thing for his potential, considering Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor were also both 17-year-old shortstops on draft night.
There’s also a chance that taking Willits here could come with some bonus-money savings that sets Washington up for some splashy picks in the coming rounds. — Mullen
MLB player comp: Kevin McGonigle, with more speed and defense
2. Los Angeles Angels: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Draft ranking: No. 18
Who is Bremner? Bremner entered the season alongside Jamie Arnold as the top collegiate pitcher after a strong sophomore season and a summer pitching for USA Baseball’s collegiate national team, but he scuffled early on with inconsistent stuff and results. He finished stronger, including a string of double-digit-strikeout games, and he threw strikes, walking just 19 batters in 77⅓ innings with 111 strikeouts. He sits 94-96, touching 98, but his plus changeup might be his best offering while his slider was hit hard and backed up compared to 2024.
Why the Angels took him here: Two picks into this draft and teams are already sending a clear message, as Bremner is the second straight curveball: The talent at the top doesn’t match that of recent drafts, so Washington and L.A. are likely saving money with their picks with underslot deals. Bremner does fit the Angels’ model of drafting college prospects who can move quickly, but ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had Bremner ranked just 18th on his most recent draft board. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Michael Wacha with more upside
Draft ranking: No. 1
Who is Anderson? Winner of the Most Outstanding Player award at the College World Series in leading LSU to the title after allowing one run in 17 innings, including a 1-0 shutout in the finals, Anderson topped Division I with 180 strikeouts, finishing 12-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Anderson had Tommy John surgery in high school, missing his senior season, but he’s a polished lefty with a five-pitch repertoire if you include both his fastballs. His fastball carries well in the zone, and he commands it well, so it plays up over its 92-94 mph velocity (hitting 97).
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The traits that helped make Kade Anderson a Mariner
Kiley McDaniel explains the traits that helped make Kade Anderson the third overall pick by the Mariners.
Why the Mariners took him here: Seattle really couldn’t have asked for a better situation than this. After seeing two surprise picks ahead of their No. 3 selection, the Mariners landed the breakout star of this year’s College World Series and one of the surest players in this draft. Though Anderson lacks the true ace upside of recent college picks Paul Skenes and Chase Burns, the left-hander is a polished starter who should move quickly through the minors and could be part of an already-strong Seattle rotation sooner rather than later. — Mullen
MLB player comp: Max Fried
4. Colorado Rockies: Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (Okla.)
Draft ranking: No. 2
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The traits that helped make Ethan Holliday a member of the Rockies
Kiley McDaniel explains the traits that helped make Ethan Holliday the fourth overall pick by the Rockies.
Who is Holliday? Yes, he’s Matt’s son and brother of Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, the first pick in the 2022 draft. Like his brother, Ethan is a left-handed hitter, although he’s much bigger (6-foot-4 compared to 6-foot) and built more like their dad, thus projects to have similar 30-homer power. He lacks the range to stay at shortstop but should be an above-average defender at third base. There are some concerns about his performance last summer on the showcase circuit and weak competition this spring in high school, but scouts love the swing and power ceiling.
Why the Rockies took him here: There was plenty of talk about Holliday being a possibility for the No. 1 pick, so the Rockies have to be happy about getting the player who might have the best chance of developing into a true major league star. His best-case scenario is reaching the majors as a power-hitting, good-fielding third baseman who turns into the Rockies’ first franchise player since they traded away a power-hitting, good-fielding third baseman in Nolan Arenado. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Left-handed-hitting version of Matt Chapman or Eugenio Suarez
Draft ranking: No. 6
Who is Doyle? One of the three highly rated lefty collegiate pitchers, Doyle went 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA for the Vols, striking out 164 in 95⅔ innings, finishing second in Division I in strikeouts and first in K’s per nine. After sitting in the low 90s as a sophomore, Doyle sat in the mid-90s, peaking at 100 mph and often just blowing his heater by college hitters. He throws strikes, isn’t afraid to pitch inside and backs up the fastball with a splitter and slider, pitches he’ll probably have to deploy more often as a pro.
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The traits that helped make Liam Doyle a member of the Cardinals
Kiley McDaniel explains the traits that helped make Liam Doyle the fifth overall pick by the Cardinals.
Why the Cardinals took him here: Doyle’s fastball could play in the majors right now, and the Cardinals have long been in need of some hard-throwing additions to their system. The question here is if the rest of Doyle’s arsenal and delivery can be strong enough to keep him in the rotation. Best case, St. Louis just added a strong part of its rotation for years to come — but a potential closer or top setup option isn’t a bad fallback plan either. — Mullen
MLB player comp: Spencer Strider, if he was left-handed but had real questions about his command/stamina/delivery
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (Calif.)
Draft ranking: No. 4
Who is Hernandez? No high school right-hander has ever gone first overall, but Hernandez put himself in that discussion as the clear top prep arm in the draft. With a projectable 6-4 frame, he followed up a strong summer in 2024 with a dominant high school season, touching triple digits but also showcasing a plus-plus changeup and an above-average 12-to-6 curveball with a high spin rate. He was athletic enough to play the field when he didn’t pitch, which might help him overcome the risky history of first-round high school pitchers.
Why the Pirates took him here: The Pirates have Paul Skenes in the majors and Bubba Chandler, perhaps the top pitching prospect in the minors, in Triple-A, and now they’ve added Hernandez, who might have the most upside of any pitcher in the draft, with a fastball up to 100 mph and plus-plus changeup. He’s a good athlete (he was a second-round prospect as a hitter), which is another plus. The only negative is the scary history of first-round pitching prospects, but Hernandez might be the best prep right-handed prospect in a decade. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Zac Gallen with more stuff or Devin Williams as a starter
7. Miami Marlins: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Draft ranking: No. 9
Who is Arquette? The latest in the Oregon State pipeline that has produced first-round picks Nick Madrigal, Trevor Larnach, Adley Rutschman, Cooper Hjerpe and Travis Bazzana since 2018, Arquette is a Honolulu native who transferred from Washington and hit .354 with 19 home runs for the Beavers. Viewed as the best college position player, Arquette is 6-foot-5, leading many scouts to think he’ll eventually move to third base even though he’s agile enough for now to get a shot at shortstop.
Why the Marlins took him here: It’s no secret that the Marlins are in need of some offensive thump throughout their system. In Arquette, they get one of the top hitters in college baseball and a prospect who should be able to supply some power while climbing quickly to the majors. It’s hard to picture the 6-5, 220-pound Oregon State star sticking at shortstop for the long term, but he should have a home somewhere in Miami’s infield. — Mullen
MLB player comp: Somewhere on the Willy Adames to Isaac Paredes spectrum
8. Toronto Blue Jays: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (Miss.)
Draft ranking: No. 7
Who is Parker? Viewed as one of the most polished prep hitters in the draft, Parker was the Gatorade Mississippi Player of the Year (his twin brother, Jacob, is also a top prospect) and follows Konnor Griffin, taken ninth last year by the Pirates, as a Mississippi high schooler to go high in the draft. A left-handed batter, Parker has great hand-eye coordination and rarely swings and misses at anything in the zone. He has 20-homer potential, although he’ll be tested to stick at shortstop long term.
Why the Blue Jays took him here: One of the many prep shortstops in a deep group, Parker’s carrying tools are an outstanding bat to go with outstanding makeup. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him end up as the best hitter from this draft. With Bo Bichette potentially leaving as a free agent, the Blue Jays could use a shortstop of the future, and Parker’s bat could allow him to move quickly through the minors. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Less athletic Gunnar Henderson or Rafael Devers with less mass/power?
9. Cincinnati Reds: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (Ala.)
Draft ranking: No. 13
Who is Hall? A plus-plus runner with grade 70 or 80 speed, Hall is the first Alabama prep shortstop drafted in the first round since Condredge Holloway went fourth overall in 1971 (Holloway didn’t sign and became the first Black QB in the SEC at Tennessee). Hall reclassified to the Class of 2025 and doesn’t turn 18 until later in July. He should be a lock to stay at shortstop with his range and arm and already shows average power and ability to lift the ball.
Why the Reds took him here: Great baseball name. Like Eli Willits, Hall reclassified into this draft class and is one of the youngest players who will be selected this year. Draft models love that, but that’s not the only reason to be high on Steele. He’s a strong athlete and runner who should stick at shortstop long term. The big question, though, is if his free-swinging style will work at the next level. — Mullen
MLB player comp: Trea Turner with a dash of Jett Williams and a dusting of Anthony Volpe
10. Chicago White Sox: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (Calif.)
Draft ranking: No. 8
Who is Carlson? Seth Hernandez’s high school teammate, Carlson is how you draw up a prep shortstop: above-average-to-plus bat speed and raw power, an 80-grade arm (up to 97 mph as a pitcher), range in the field and game performance. He’s still growing into his power and will have to overcome some concerns about his hit tool, but the defense should give him a high floor and there’s five-tool potential here.
Why the White Sox took him here: As expected, we’re now getting the run of prep shortstops. Carlson’s calling card is his defense, featuring a Masyn Wynn-type cannon. He also has the range to stick at shortstop and impressive raw power. If the hit tool comes around, the upside is huge, and he fits in nicely in a White Sox system that is finally showing some long-term potential solutions on offense — obviously a huge need at the big league level. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Bobby Witt Jr., but one tier lower in tools, and with questions if the ultimate offensive upside matches those tools (Jeremy Pena feels a bit closer)
11. Athletics: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Draft ranking: No. 5
Who is Arnold? Arnold ranked third in Division I in strikeouts as a sophomore in 2024, behind only top-five picks Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, but pitched fewer innings in 2025 and saw his strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk rate drop a bit. Still, he’s viewed as a high-probability pick, with a fastball that sits in the 93 mph range from a low, easy delivery that he can pump up to 97, with a sweeping slider and feel for a plus changeup.
1:05
The traits that helped make Jamie Arnold a member of the Athletics
Kiley McDaniel explains the traits that helped Jamie Arnold get drafted by the Athletics.
Why the Athletics took him here: Entering the season, Arnold was in the conversation to be the No. 1 pick, so getting him here has to make the A’s happy. The Florida State left-hander is probably the second-safest pitcher in this draft, behind Kade Anderson, because of his polish and secondary stuff. Arnold’s fastball is a class below some other recent top pitching prospects though, and that could limit him to be more of a mid-rotation starter than a future ace. — Mullen
MLB player comp: A bit of Chris Sale and a bit of Nick Lodolo, if Arnold’s command progresses
12. Texas Rangers: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (Calif.)
Draft ranking: No. 12
Who is Fien? Fien was one of the top prep hitters on the summer showcase circuit in 2024, but the 6-3 right-handed hitter struggled at times this spring during his regular high school season, not producing the same hard contact as consistently even though he was facing weaker competition. At his best, he has shown plus raw power with excellent bat speed and in-zone contact rates. He profiles well at third base with a strong arm.
Why the Rangers took him here: The Rangers have struggled to score runs the past two seasons following their World Series title in 2023, so it’s probably not a surprise they would draft a hitter with one of the best hit/power combos in the draft. Fien should be able to stick at third base with a strong arm, but his bat is what will get him to the majors. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Austin Riley with a bit of Josh Jung mixed in
Draft ranking: No. 20
Who is Kilen? After transferring from Louisville for his junior season, Kilen was one of the best players in the SEC, hitting .357 with 15 home runs. After walking just seven times as a sophomore, he toned down his aggressiveness with the Vols and showed better swing decisions, drawing 30 walks against just 27 strikeouts. He projects as contact over power although showed some high-end exit velocity results on occasion. He played both infield positions for the Vols, although his fringy arm probably pushes him to second base in the pros.
Why the Giants took him here: Not to be confused with Gavin Fien, taken one pick earlier, Gavin Kilen is one of the safest bats in this draft — and the Giants take him a year after they selected James Tibbs III, one of the safest bats in the 2024 draft, at No. 13. Kilen’s power took a big step forward at Tennessee this year after he transferred from Louisville, making him arguably the most productive hitter in one of the SEC’s best lineups. Despite that production this season, Kilen’s power is more likely to show up as average than plus in the majors, but his hit tool figures to play at any level. — Mullen
MLB player comp: In the Brice Turang area as maybe a shortstop, but probably second base with a solid lefty stick (but not huge tools)
14. Tampa Bay Rays: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (Ga.)
Draft ranking: No. 19
Who is Pierce? Yet another prep infielder who looks like a lock to stick at shortstop, Pierce played for his dad’s high school team in Georgia, with plus speed and a plus arm his strongest attributes. Scouts love his makeup, and he has produced against quality pitching on the showcase circuit and could add power to his right-handed swing as he gets stronger.
Why the Rays took him here: The Rays love drafting athletic middle infielders — think of Carson Williams in the first round in 2021 and Theo Gillen in 2024 — even if that player has to eventually move to the outfield (as was the case with Gillen). Pierce is a good bet to stay at shortstop and, as a coach’s son, brings all those intangibles you would expect. He’ll need to get stronger and add more power, but the Rays don’t historically rush their prospects, so Pierce will have time to develop. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Jeremy Pena, if it all clicks
15. Boston Red Sox: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Draft ranking: No. 10
Who is Witherspoon? The hard-throwing right-hander began his college career at a Florida junior college before playing two years for the Sooners, going 10-4 with a 2.65 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 95 innings this spring. He tops out at 99 mph and improved his walk rate from 4.5 per innings as a sophomore to 2.2. He throws both a slider and cutter and flashes a changeup and curveball as well. His twin brother, Malachi, also pitched for the Sooners and is also a prospect, although he projects as a fastball/slider reliever, whereas Kyson has the pitches and delivery to start.
Why the Red Sox took him here: While the Red Sox have been pumping out hitting prospects in recent years, pitching coming through the farm system hasn’t exactly been a strength of theirs. Witherspoon has a chance to change that if everything clicks. He has power stuff and strong athleticism with the potential to be a legit swing-and-miss starter at the big league level. He isn’t quite as safe a bet as the trio of college left-handers who went above him tonight, but some scouts believe the right-handed Witherspoon is on the verge of a breakout as the Red Sox land him here. — Mullen
MLB player comp: Delivery and arsenal are shades of Dylan Cease, but command isn’t there yet
16. Minnesota Twins: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Draft ranking: No. 22
Who is Houston? Wake Forest continues to pump out the first-rounders, with Houston following last year’s first-round trio of Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz and Seaver King, who all went in the top 10. In 2023, it was Rhett Lowder and Brock Wilken. A gifted defender, Houston might be the best defensive shortstop in the draft. While he hit .354 with 15 home runs for the Demon Deacons, 11 of those home runs came at home in Wake Forest’s hitter-friendly park. If there is some power here, Houston can develop into a starter; otherwise, he projects as a high-floor utility player.
Why the Twins took him here: A surefire shortstop, Houston might be the best collegiate defender in this draft and is right up there with Billy Carlson as the best overall defensive shortstop. That puts Houston in line as a potential long-term replacement for Carlos Correa, who is signed through 2028 (with some potential vesting options after that). The Twins do have Brooks Lee, their first-round pick from 2022, in the majors, but the jury remains out on both his bat and his glove. Houston will have to develop some power, but his glove alone should get him to the majors as at least a utility guy. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Masyn Winn, if the offense continues to improve
17. Chicago Cubs: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
Draft ranking: No. 30
Who is Conrad? Yet another Wake Forest transfer, Conrad played two seasons for Marist before landing at Wake, lighting up the scoreboard early on, when he hit .372 with seven home runs in 21 games before shoulder surgery ended his season early. A 6-4 lefty swinger, Conrad has the tools for both above-average hit and above-average power, although there is some concern about his aggressive approach. Although his numbers came before Wake’s tougher ACC schedule, he did perform well in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2024.
Why the Cubs took him here: If not for the shoulder injury he suffered in early April, there’s a chance Conrad would not have been here for Chicago to take. He was one of the best performers in the ACC after coming over from Marist with a compact swing and gap-to-gap approach that should translate well to the pros. Conrad probably won’t be a star, but he has a chance to be a player who both hits for a solid average and supplies some power for the Cubs. — Mullen
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas)
Draft ranking: No. 25
Who is Cunningham? Viewed as perhaps the best pure hitter in the draft, Cunningham has elite barrel control and bat speed with his left-handed swing and rarely swings and misses. Listed at 5-10, he’s shorter than that, and there are some doubts about his ability to remain at shortstop, even though he’s a plus runner. The swing is flat at times and will need to add some loft to reach some power. He’s also 19 on draft day, a red flag under some draft models.
Why the Diamondbacks took him here: No team loves short players as much as the Diamondbacks, who drafted the 5-10 Corbin Carroll in the first round in 2019 and 5-9 Slade Caldwell in the first round last summer. Carroll is a big star and Caldwell is having one of the best seasons of any of the 2024 first-rounders. Cunningham is another sub 6-footer (5-10, to be exact) with an impressive hit tool and the Diamondbacks will hope they got another steal in the middle of the first round. — Schoenfield
MLB player comp: Lefty-hitting Matt McLain, if the power comes
Draft ranking: No. 11
Who is Irish? A three-year performer for the Tigers, Irish hit .350 with 39 home runs in his Auburn career, including .364 with 19 home runs this spring, when his OPS ranked second highest in conference play. He entered the season with concerns about his defense at catcher, and he ended up playing 45 games in the outfield compared to just 12 behind the plate, although he could still project as a backup catcher who plays all over the field.
Why the Orioles took him here: Where will he play as a pro? Good question. But there’s one thing that is certain about Irish: He hit as well, or better, than just about anyone in college baseball this season. He put up huge numbers in the nation’s toughest conference this year and produced against many of the SEC pitchers you’ll see taken in the first few rounds of this draft. Until just about everything went sideways in Baltimore this year, the O’s had a reputation for crushing their early position-player picks — and Irish is exactly the kind of hitter who they have thrived at developing. — Mullen
MLB player comp: Seiya Suzuki in terms of tools/outcomes, but a notch bigger — and he might also be a passable defensive catcher
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee
Draft ranking: No. 24
Who is Fischer? Fischer’s vagabond college career saw him go from Duke to Mississippi to Tennessee, where he was one of the sluggers in Division I this spring, hitting .341/.497/.760 with 25 home runs. He cut his strikeout rate down to 14% while ranking fourth in walks behind three small-school players. He delivers plus left-handed power to all fields with good loft. He played first base for the Vols for all but a few games, so his bat will have to be his carrying tool.
MLB player comp: Max Muncy (the Dodgers 3B/1B one)
Upcoming picks
21. Houston Astros
22. Atlanta Braves
23. Kansas City Royals
24. Detroit Tigers
25. San Diego Padres
26. Philadelphia Phillies
27. Cleveland Guardians
Prospect Promotion Incentive picks
28. Kansas City Royals
Compensation picks
29. Arizona Diamondbacks
30. Baltimore Orioles
31. Baltimore Orioles
32. Milwaukee Brewers
Competitive balance round A
33. Boston Red Sox (Acquired from the Brewers in the trade for Quinn Priester.)
34. Detroit Tigers
35. Seattle Mariners
36. Minnesota Twins
37. Baltimore Orioles (Acquired from the Rays in trade for Bryan Baker.)
38. New York Mets
39. New York Yankees
40. Los Angeles Dodgers
41. Los Angeles Dodgers (Acquired from the Reds in the trade for Gavin Lux.)
42. Tampa Bay Rays (Acquired from the Athletics in the trade for Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez.)
43. Miami Marlins
Second round
44. Chicago White Sox
45. Colorado Rockies
46. Miami Marlins
47. Los Angeles Angels
48. Athletics
49. Washington Nationals
50. Pittsburgh Pirates
51. Cincinnati Reds
52. Texas Rangers
53. Tampa Bay Rays
54. Minnesota Twins
55. St. Louis Cardinals
56. Chicago Cubs
57. Seattle Mariners
58. Baltimore Orioles
59. Milwaukee Brewers
60. Atlanta Braves
61. Kansas City Royals
62. Detroit Tigers
63. Philadelphia Phillies
64. Cleveland Guardians
65. Los Angeles Dodgers
Competitive balance round B
66. Cleveland Guardians
67. Tampa Bay Rays (Compensation for unsigned 2024 No. 66 overall pick Tyler Bell.)
68. Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation for unsigned 2024 No. 67 overall pick Chris Levonas.)
69. Baltimore Orioles
70. Cleveland Guardians (Acquired from the D-backs in the trade for Josh Naylor.)
71. Kansas City Royals
72. St. Louis Cardinals
73. Pittsburgh Pirates
74. Colorado Rockies
Compensation picks
75. Boston Red Sox (Compensation for Nick Pivetta. The Padres forfeited their second-round pick for signing Pivetta.)
Third round
77. Colorado Rockies
78. Miami Marlins
79. Los Angeles Angels
80. Washington Nationals
81. Toronto Blue Jays
82. Pittsburgh Pirates
83. Cincinnati Reds
84. Texas Rangers
85. San Francisco Giants
86. Tampa Bay Rays
87. Boston Red Sox
88. Minnesota Twins
89. St. Louis Cardinals
90. Chicago Cubs
91. Seattle Mariners
92. Arizona Diamondbacks
93. Baltimore Orioles
94. Milwaukee Brewers
95. Houston Astros
96. Atlanta Braves
97. Kansas City Royals
98. Detroit Tigers
99. San Diego Padres
100. Philadelphia Phillies
101. Cleveland Guardians
102. New York Mets
103. New York Yankees
104. Los Angeles Dodgers
Compensation picks
105. Los Angeles Angels
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