Can the Oilers win Game 4? Thoughts on lineup and tactical changes, plus score predictions
Through the first three rounds, the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs were a showcase for the Edmonton Oilers and their superstar-laden offense.
The final round of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs has not gone so well. Down 0-3 to the Florida Panthers, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl & Co. need a win in Game 4 (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+) to avoid the sweep.
Whether through an altered lineup, tactics or something else entirely, something needs to change to avoid that ignominious outcome. Our reporters and analysts are here to describe how the Oilers can win Game 4 — and offer their thoughts on whether they will.
What has been the biggest reason for the Oilers’ lack of scoring?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: It appears to be a mix of the Panthers’ system and their personnel. In the regular season, the Panthers allowed the fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 play, were fourth in fewest high-danger goals allowed at 5-on-5 and seventh in fewest high-danger chances per 60 at 5-on-5.
They’ve found a way to carry that over to the playoffs, suppressing other high-powered teams such as the New York Rangers. As for the personnel, everything they do from a forward standpoint starts with two-time Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov. They also have excellent shutdown defensemen led by Gustav Forsling, plus a two-time Vezina Trophy winner in Sergei Bobrovsky.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: The obvious answer is “the top five Oilers playoff scorers have not scored this series,” but Connor McDavid has still factored in on at least half of every Oilers goal this postseason, including this Stanley Cup Final (the only other player that did that in the playoffs for a team that made the Final was someone who wore No. 99).
The Panthers deserve a lot of credit for shutting them all down — particularly Barkov, who has been stellar; Forsling, who has been the best defenseman this postseason; and Bobrovsky, who has showed up for pretty much every high-danger moment the Oilers have been able to muster. The whole-team effort has been truly impressive.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: There are three fallen teams in this postseason field that know the agony of trying to score against the Panthers. The complete buy-in defensively from Florida’s entire lineup makes it near impossible for teams to generate truly high-quality scoring chances — and even when they do, Bobrovsky has been there to make the top-tier saves necessary for the Panthers to be on the brink of winning the franchise’s first Cup.
Forsling and Aaron Ekblad have been a formidable top pairing, and each of the Panthers’ defensemen executes his role well. Florida keeps skaters to the outside to give Bobrovsky a chance at tracking pucks cleanly. It’s an unbeatable combination.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: They’re playing the Florida Panthers. This is as good as it gets for a defensive team in the postseason. So much has been made of the Oilers’ top players not having a goal in this Stanley Cup Final. Ask Nikita Kucherov about it. Or David Pastrnak. Or Mika Zibanejad. Or Artemi Panarin. None of those players scored at 5-on-5 against Florida in the playoffs.
Paul Maurice has his team playing as a five-man unit. Having Barkov and Sam Reinhart on the same line is just unfair — they have a 1.29 goals against per 60 minutes while on the ice together. And if there is a crack in the wall, if mistakes are made, they end up in the glove or on the pads of Bobrovsky.
What can the Oilers do to keep the Panthers off the board?
Clark: Avoid the sort of compounding mistakes that lead to the Panthers having a big period. Game 3 saw the Panthers score three goals in the second period, and those sort of exchanges are devastating. It’s something the Oilers know well, because that was the fourth time they’ve given up three in a period this postseason.
Limiting the miscues that lead to the Panthers finding the openings to score that many goals in a period is going to play a vital role in the Oilers trying to force a Game 5.
Öcal: The Oilers simply need Stuart Skinner to be elite the rest of the way. There’s no room for error anymore. There has been one reverse sweep in Cup Final history, and it happened in the 1940s.
If the Oilers want to have any ounce of hope of even winning a game, they need their goalie to win one for them. An .893 save percentage just won’t cut it against the Panthers’ offensive depth.
Shilton: Edmonton hasn’t just been trying to beat Florida. The Oilers are often attempting to overcome their own errors in the process. Giveaways are back-breakers at all times of the season, but especially now when the Panthers are so adept at capitalizing on those freebies.
The key for Edmonton is to make Florida work for its ice. That’s how the Panthers are making this series so difficult on the Oilers. Florida’s attack comes in waves, and Edmonton has to find its own way to keep the Panthers from continuously leeching their momentum.
Wyshynski: Stop giving them gifts like it’s their baby shower. Game 3 was trending in the Oilers’ direction before they coughed up the puck twice and allowed an odd-man rush to develop from deep in their attacking zone. They gave up three goals in 6:19 and that was the game — as Leon Draisaitl said afterwards, the Oilers were chasing it the rest of the game.
Stop helping the Panthers win the Cup. As if they need the help.
What lineup change should Kris Knoblauch make for Game 4?
Clark: Simple as it sounds: whatever line combinations that can lead to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl scoring goals.
McDavid has two assists in this series, while Draisaitl had one in Game 3. Yet the fact neither of them has scored comes at a point where the Oilers are not only facing elimination, but they’re getting goals — albeit not many — from players in secondary and tertiary scoring roles. Finding a way to get McDavid and Draisaitl, among others, in situations in which they can convert scoring chances to goals could be an answer.
But that also goes back to another realization: Kris Knoblauch has already made a number of adjustments that still have the Oilers searching for answers as they try to avoid being swept.
Öcal: At this point, you try anything and everything because your back is against the wall. To Coach Knoblauch’s credit, he has been tinkering with the lines, whether it’s bringing Sam Carrick in for Corey Perry, moving Adam Henrique up to the second line or splitting up Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci.
Do Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele move up because they contributed in Game 3? McDavid and Draisaitl together hasn’t been effective against the Panthers, which is certainly a problem.
Shilton: Knoblauch has the best and worst problem: Two of the world’s best players are in his lineup, and two of the world’s best players can’t seem to score in this series. What’s the answer there? It’s the only question that matters.
Knoblauch might as well look at every option the Oilers have to give the top six an optimal chance of success in Game 4. Is that splitting up McDavid and Draisaitl? Keeping them on one line with a puck distributor who can tee them up? Does Knoblauch rotate forwards in that position?
Edmonton needs to see its stars be stars in Game 4 in order to feel like there is a still a chance to make a series out of this.
Wyshynski: The Oilers have the same problem the Panthers had when they lost in the Stanley Cup Final last season: They’re running out of healthy players.
I don’t even know whether Sam Gagner fits that description at this point. He hasn’t played since April 18. He played 9:26 in that game. Again, I have no idea whether Gagner can play. I am confident that if he did, the roof would come off the arena on his first shift. And that’s the kind of vibe shift this team needs. Look, could he be any more ineffective than some of the team’s other depth forwards?
The final score of Game 4 will be ______.
Clark: 4-2 Panthers. The Oilers showed a level of desperation late in Game 3 that leads one to wonder whether they can replicate that throughout the entirety of Game 4. But where it gets a bit complicated is the fact Paul Maurice and his coaching staff have made the needed adjustments throughout the series.
That’s not to say Edmonton can’t find a breakthrough and force a Game 5. But when the Panthers have found numerous ways to score goals, prevent goals and fend off a team the way they did in Game 3? It’s possible that it’s too much for the Oilers to overcome.
Öcal: 6-1 Panthers. The Oilers’ best chance was in the third period of Game 3, where they got two goals to bring it to within one with about five minutes to go, but couldn’t find the equalizer. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Edmonton win to force a Game 5, but this does feel like a sweep.
Shilton: 3-2 Oilers. The Oilers were one outstanding Sergei Bobrovsky save in Game 3 from forcing overtime. Edmonton’s performance in that entire third period was gutsy and tough, and if they can channel that energy for the entirety of Game 4, there’s a solid chance there’s a Game 5 back in Florida. And it would be a fitting swan song for Edmonton’s season to get that one Cup Final win at home for its fans.
Wyshynski: 4-2 Oilers. Because that would be the most hilarious outcome, as everyone sulks onto their flights to travel a Stanley Cup Final-record 2,541 miles back to Fort Lauderdale to simply delay the inevitable.
Famously, there have been 28 instances of a team taking a 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final, with those teams winning the Cup 27 times. Even if the Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 of those 28 series have ended in five games. This series is over. It’s just a matter of when. And for those of us who remember the palpable sadness of media members having to schlep all the way back to Los Angeles in 2012 after the Kings took a 3-0 lead but the New Jersey Devils won Game 4, it’s time for a redux.
It seems such a short time ago that all 16 teams began the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs with a clean slate. On Tuesday night, two teams could have their postseason runs ended.
Can both teams stave off elimination to get another home game out of the 2025 postseason?
Meanwhile in the Western Conference, both series involving Pacific Division teams are tied 2-2 heading back to the higher seed’s domain. Which teams will take pivotal Games 5 in Vegas Golden Knights–Minnesota Wild and Los Angeles Kings–Edmonton Oilers?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Monday’s games, and the Three Stars of Monday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 5 (TOR leads 3-1) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Games 2-4 marked the 11th time in the past 20 years that teams have gone to overtime three straight times in a playoff series.
Jake Sanderson‘s game-winning overtime goal was the first of his career, and he became the ninth defenseman age 22 or younger with an OT goal in the playoffs (and the first for the Senators).
Veteran David Perron scored his first playoff goal with the Senators, the fourth team with which he has scored a postseason goal (Blues, Golden Knights, Ducks).
Matthew Knies scored his sixth career playoff goal, which is tied for the fourth most by a Maple Leafs player age 22 or younger since 1976-77, behind Auston Matthews (12), Wendel Clark (11) and Russ Courtnall (8).
Toronto defensemen have scored five goals this postseason, the most by any team, a surprising outcome given that the Leafs had the fewest goals by defensemen in the regular season (21).
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 5 (CAR leads 3-1) | 7:30 p.m. ET | TBS
The Devils have outscored the Hurricanes at 5-on-5 in the series (7-5), but trail on their own power plays (0-1), the Canes’ power plays (0-4) and when the net is empty (0-2).
Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen was knocked out of Game 4 following a collision with Devils forward Timo Meier. Meier has not scored on Andersen during this series, but scored on his first shot on goal against backup goalie Pyotr Kochetkov.
Andersen’s status is up in the air for Game 5, but he is the current leader among playoff goaltenders in goals-against average (1.59) this postseason, and is second among qualified goalies in save percentage (.936).
Andrei Svechnikov scored his second career playoff hat trick in Game 4. He has two for his career and is the only player in Hurricanes/Whalers franchise history to score a playoff hat trick.
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Game 4 broke one streak and continued another. Ivan Barbashev‘s OT winner snapped a three-game losing streak for Vegas in playoff OT games, while the loss for Minnesota makes it five straight defeats in home playoff games that go to the extra session.
Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson made 42 saves in the loss, his second career playoff game with 40 or more. He is the only goaltender in franchise history with multiple 40-save games in the playoffs.
Kirill Kaprizov registered an assist in the Game 4 loss, giving him eight points in four games this postseason, one behind the leaders.
Vegas forward Tomas Hertl is on a heater. His goal in Game 4 is his third this postseason, and he has eight goals in his past nine games going back to March 22.
The Wild have been mostly effective at keeping Jack Eichel off the score sheet. He had one assist in Game 4, his first point of the series after a team-leading 94 points in the regular season.
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 10 p.m. ET | TBS
With his two-goal outing in Game 4, Evan Bouchard became the fourth defenseman in Stanley Cup playoff history to have back-to-back multigoal games, joining Rob Blake (2002), Al Iafrate (1993) and Denis Potvin (1981).
Leon Draisaitl — who scored the OT game winner in Game 4 — now has eight four-point games in his playoff career. That’s the fourth most in Oilers history, behind Wayne Gretzky (20), Mark Messier (10) and Jari Kurri (10).
Tied with Draisaitl for the playoff scoring lead is Kings winger Adrian Kempe, who is also tied for the goals lead with four. Kempe had 19 total points in 22 previous playoff games, all with the Kings.
Kings goaltender Darcy Kuemper has been busy, facing 134 shots, which is the second most among postseason goaltenders (Gustavsson is first with 136). Kuemper’s current .881 save percentage is the second worst of his playoff career, narrowly ahead of the .879 he generated while backstopping the Wild for two games in the 2013 playoffs.
Arda’s three stars from Monday night
Johnston scored his first goal of the 2025 postseason nine seconds in, which is tied for the fifth fastest goal to start a game in Stanley Cup playoff history. He had himself a night, with two goals and an assist in the Stars’ win.
Rantanen scored his first postseason goal with the Stars against his old team. Rantanen became the seventh different player in NHL history to score a playoff goal against a team with which he previously tallied 100-plus postseason points. The others: Jaromir Jagr (2012 and 2008 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins), Brett Hull (2002, 2001, and 1999 vs. St. Louis Blues), Wayne Gretzky (1992, 1990, 1989 vs. Edmonton Oilers), Jari Kurri (1992 vs. Oilers), Paul Coffey (1992 vs. Oilers) and Bernie Geoffrion (1967 vs. Montreal Canadiens).
His postgame quotes keep getting better and better, to the point where he deserves a star for saying, “I’m sick of talking about hits” — then asking the media for their thoughts. Love it.
Monday’s scores
Florida Panthers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
FLA leads 3-1 | Game 5 Wednesday
After an exciting, but scoreless, first period, the game heated up even more in the second. Anton Lundell opened the scoring for the Panthers, and Aaron Ekblad delivered a vicious hit to Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel; the call was not penalized on the ice, and Hagel would have to leave the game. Thereafter, the Lightning scored two goals within 11 seconds from Mitchell Chaffee and Erik Cernak to take the lead well into the third period. But then in another span of 11 seconds, the Panthers pulled off the same feat, with goals by Ekblad and Seth Jones, sending the building into a frenzy. Carter Verhaeghe added an empty-netter for insurance. Full recap.
1:21
Panthers match Lightning with 2 goals in 11 seconds to take lead
Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones score within 11 seconds of each other as the Panthers grab a late lead in the third period.
Dallas Stars 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
DAL leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
As wild as the opening game was Monday night, this one looked to be going down the same road early. Dallas’ Wyatt Johnston scored nine seconds into the game, which is the fastest goal ever to start a playoff game in Stars franchise history. Fellow young Star Thomas Harley joined him on the scoresheet with 45 seconds left in the first. From there on, Dallas kept Colorado at arm’s length, with a second-period goal from Mikko Rantanen, another from Johnston and one from Mason Marchment, followed by an empty-netter from Roope Hintz to put an exclamation point on the proceedings. Artturi Lehkonen and Nathan MacKinnon scored in the second period, but that was not nearly enough on this night. Full recap.
0:34
Stars score in first 9 seconds of the game
Wyatt Johnston wastes no time as he finds the net within nine seconds of play for a Stars goal against the Avalanche.
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Greg Wyshynski
Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad will have a hearing Tuesday with the NHL Department of Player Safety for elbowing Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel in the head in Game 4 of their series Monday night.
Hagel won’t play in Wednesday’s Game 5.
“He’s not playing tomorrow. And you know why,” said Lightning coach Jon Cooper on Tuesday.
Ekblad’s hearing will be held remotely.
With less than nine minutes left in the second period of Florida’s 4-2 victory, Hagel played the puck out of the Tampa Bay zone near the boards. Ekblad skated in on him and delivered a hit with his right forearm that made contact with Hagel’s head, shoving Hagel down in the process. The back of Hagel’s head bounced off the ice. He was pulled from the game because of concussion concerns and didn’t return to the bench.
Ekblad wasn’t penalized for the hit and remained in the game. He would play a critical role in the Panthers’ late-game rally to take a 3-1 series lead, tying the game with 3:47 left in regulation before Florida defenseman Seth Jones scored the winner 11 seconds later.
Hagel returned to the Lightning lineup in Game 4 after serving a one-game suspension for interference on Florida captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2. The NHL ruled that Barkov wasn’t eligible to be hit and that Hagel made head contact with him, which forced Barkov out of the game. Barkov returned to the Florida lineup for Game 3, which the Lightning won in Hagel’s absence.
“It’s getting tiresome answering questions about a hit every single game,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said after the game before asking media members whether they had anything to say about Ekblad’s check, with no takers. “All right, let’s move on,” he said.
Ekblad missed the first two games of the playoffs after he was suspended 20 games without pay in March for violating the NHL and NHL Players’ Association’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs.
The Department of Player Safety did make a ruling on Florida defenseman Niko Mikkola, who received a five-minute major penalty and a game misconduct for boarding Tampa Bay’s Zemgus Girgensons in Game 4. Mikkola was fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the NHL CBA, but escaped suspension.
Cooper said the physicality of “The Battle of Florida” shouldn’t come as a surprise
“Players are missing games because of it, whether it’s physically or by the league. So it’s going to be talked about. But if anybody’s followed Tampa and Florida over the last five or six years, this is kind of how these series are. This one is a little different because of the major things that have happened, but these are hard-fought series,” he said.
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