It’s Tarik Skubal time: With season on the line, Tigers turn to ‘best pitcher in the world’
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
IN THE SIXTH inning of Game 2 of the American League Division Series, Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal threw the biggest pitch of his career. It was a 97 mph fastball down in the zone, a pitch that induced Cleveland Guardians hitter David Fry to bounce into an inning-ending double play and preserve a scoreless tie.
Shortly after came the signature moment of his postseason dominance: As he walked off the mound, the game broadcast showed Skubal yelling a few choice words at the Progressive Field crowd booing him.
“I probably shouldn’t say some bad words with some cameras on me with kids watching,” Skubal said after the start. “But it was just emotion, raw emotion.”
The show of emotion made the rounds on social media, with Skubal’s own mother, Laura, scolding her son in a response to one of the most popular posts — an irony noted by Skubal on Friday.
Tarik Daniel!!
— Laura Skubal (@lskubal) October 7, 2024
“It’s interesting my mom went to Twitter to say that,” he said. “You should hear my mom. I’ve seen her get ejected from plenty of high school basketball games.
“I guess it might run in the family there.”
That kind of competitive fire is why there is no pitcher on the planet to whom the Tigers would rather hand their season to in Saturday’s winner-take-all Game 5 in Cleveland. The best pitcher in the AL this year is now tasked with extending Detroit’s improbable postseason run.
“No moment is too big,” Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson said. “There is so much conviction behind every pitch. So much fun to play behind. He’s special and he’s only just getting started.”
THE TIGERS MIGHT not have had the luxury of turning to the American League Cy Young favorite in an elimination game if not for one unexpected draft-day phone call in 2018.
After Detroit took righty Casey Mize with the No.1 overall pick, Tigers executive David Chadd got a call from an agent friend during the middle of the second round.
“Your best player isn’t even on your board,” the voice said.
The call was from Scott Boras, who had an early idea of what Skubal could become; former client Bill Caudill had recommended to check him out.
“My god — this guy has arm strength like you wouldn’t believe,” Boras told colleagues after seeing Skubal for the first time.
Skubal was not a well-known name in the scouting world; he had undergone Tommy John surgery the previous year and was playing college baseball at Seattle University. His junior year numbers were more OK than outstanding, especially given the mid-major competition he was facing: He had a 4.16 ERA, giving up 66 hits in 80 innings to go along with 106 strikeouts.
“He was coming off an injury so I don’t think the industry had a lot of looks at Tarik,” said Chadd, who works for the Philadelphia Phillies now. “We had minimal looks at Tarik.”
Chadd and then-Tigers scouting director Scott Pleis had doubts but were convinced enough to make Skubal a ninth-round draft pick. They paid him a $350,000 signing bonus — more than double slot value — to keep him from returning to college for his senior year.
Those doubts were erased as soon as Detroit’s brass got a look at him. They quickly realized they had something special.
“I think we knew immediately what we had when he first stepped on the mound,” Chadd said. “We were taken aback by the ability at that point.”
Skubal pitched well enough during his professional debut that summer to be promoted from rookie ball, first to Low-A Connecticut and then to Single-A West Michigan. From then on, he was seen in the organization in the same tier as first-round picks Mize and Matt Manning. Two years later, he joined the two more heralded pitchers on Kiley McDaniel’s 2020 list of the baseball’s top 100 prospects.
Even so, Skubal made his August 2020 MLB debut with little fanfare. He went 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA over eight games in the pandemic-shortened season but showed improvement the next year, making 29 starts with a 4.34 ERA in 2021. He took another big step in 2022, posting a 3.51 ERA. But another elbow injury shut him down 21 starts into his 2022 campaign. He underwent flexor tendon surgery in August, opting against a second Tommy John, which allowed him to return in July 2023. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the sport ever since.
“He deserves all the credit for taking the mindset into rehab of ‘I’m going to come back better than before I got hurt,'” Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said. “He made some mechanical changes and developed his changeup while rehabbing. … He’s an intense competitor. And his stuff plays in the zone which keeps him pitch efficient.”
Thanks to Detroit’s unexpected October run, a national audience is now seeing what those who have watched — and faced — Skubal have seen for more than a year now.
Skubal is just the fifth pitcher to begin a postseason career with multiple scoreless starts of at least six innings. In his first postseason outing, he stymied the Houston Astros in Game 1 of their wild-card series, showing off stuff that had baseball buzzing. He did the same in Game 2 of this series, shutting out the Guardians over seven innings.
Watching at home, Oakland Athletics slugger Brent Rooker, who has 15 plate appearances against Skubal, second most of any pitcher in his career, took to social media to express his admiration.
Tarik does a thing where he’ll pitch to you at like 94-95 and then get to 2 strikes or a big spot in the game and suddenly ramp it up to 99-100. Very fun as a hitter.
— Brent Rooker (@Brent_Rooker12) October 7, 2024
“What makes it elite is how he maintains his arm speed on his changeup,” Rooker told ESPN in a phone conversation after Game 2. “There is nothing in the delivery that tells you it’s coming. Nothing. And it has good fade to his arm side which plays well off his fastball. Combine that with his pitchability, he’s at the top of his game.”
That ability to command his pitches has only gotten better since he returned last season. Previously, Skubal relied on his high-velocity four-seam fastball, but this year, he’s incorporated his changeup and slider more often. And though he’s throwing his heater less frequently, those off-speed pitches are coming in faster. In fact, in ALDS Game 2, his changeup averaged 87.8 mph, topping off at 90.4. League average on changeups is 85 mph.
“It’s just on you,” Rooker said. “He’s fiery, competitive. It’s always a fun battle.”
The skill set and the competitive spirit saw Skubal lead the majors in wins, ERA and strikeouts — and become the runaway favorite to collect his first Cy Young award next month.
“That’s one reason I asked him to sign a ball late in the season,” Rooker said. “I like doing that stuff with great players.”
No one has a better seat for Skubal’s dominant displays than his Tigers teammates, who have appreciated watching a rise to greatness from a fellow homegrown player. They’re as amazed as anyone.
“I want to ask him, ‘How does it feel to walk out on the mound knowing you’re the best pitcher in the world?'” reliever Beau Brieske said recently. “I’d like to know what that feels like, to be quite honest.”
And on Saturday, with a chance to lead Detroit to an American League Championship Series showdown with the New York Yankees, Skubal will walk to the Progressive Field mound hoping to amaze them again.
“He’s got it all,” catcher Austin Hedges said. “He’s a unit on the mound. He’s got crazy deception. He throws 100. He has two different fastballs. He has wipeout off-speed. He’s the ultimate competitor.
“He’s every team’s dream to have as an ace. That guy is as good as it gets in our league.”
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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