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Global temperatures in 2023 soared to unexpected heights, sparking concern among climate scientists. With an increase of nearly 0.3°C over the previous year, the dramatic rise initially puzzled experts. James Hansen, a renowned climate scientist, suggested this could mark the beginning of a new phase in global warming, accelerated by the reduction in air pollution. NASA‘s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Director, Gavin Schmidt, suggested this unusual rise might reveal gaps in our understanding of climate feedback mechanisms.

El Niño as a Key Contributor

However, recent studies indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean‘s shifting conditions, including the transition from a La Niña to a strong El Niño, may hold the key to explaining these anomalies. El Niño has long been known for its capacity to disrupt global climate patterns. During a La Niña event, trade winds push warm water towards Indonesia, allowing cooler deep water to surface in the eastern Pacific, lowering global temperatures.

In contrast, El Niño brings warmer waters back eastward, effectively switching off the ocean’s “air conditioner.” Studies led by Shiv Priyam Raghuraman at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign suggest that the end of a prolonged La Niña, combined with the onset of a robust El Niño, is responsible for 2023’s temperature spike.

A Rare but Possible Phenomenon

The team analysed 58,021 years of climate model simulations to understand how often such spikes occur. They found that large temperature increases following El Niño are rare, occurring only 1.6 percent of the time. However, when preceded by a long La Niña, the probability of such a spike rises to 10.3 percent.

Their findings align with another study, co-authored by Marianne Tronstad Lund from Norway’s Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, which highlighted that the global oceans, though warmer in 2023, weren’t significantly hotter than during past El Niño events.

A Climate Debate that Continues

While El Niño is seen as the primary driver of 2023’s record heat, scientists like Schmidt remain cautious. The speed and duration of the warming event surpassed typical El Niño patterns, with lingering heat as Earth heads towards another La Niña.

Additionally, the increase in sunlight detected by satellites, potentially due to reduced cloud cover or surface reflectivity, raises further questions. For now, El Niño appears to be the most likely culprit, but the broader climate debate continues.

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India’s first Astronaut Mission Oostponed to 2026 for Safety Checks

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November 5, 2024

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India’s first Astronaut Mission Oostponed to 2026 for Safety Checks

India has delayed its inaugural astronaut mission under the Gaganyaan programme to 2026, pushing the timeline a year beyond the original schedule. The decision, announced by S. Somanath, Chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), reflects a commitment to safety in light of recent aerospace industry setbacks. According to Somanath, India’s first manned mission will be preceded by multiple uncrewed test flights, with the first trial scheduled to launch in December 2023. The series of tests will validate crucial systems needed for a successful crewed mission, making way for India to join the ranks of the United States, Russia, and China in independently sending astronauts into space.

Safety First: ISRO’s Cautious Approach

ISRO’s extensive testing procedures and the addition of a fourth uncrewed test flight were outlined by Somanath during a recent talk in New Delhi. He cited the Boeing Starliner’s technical difficulties as a reminder of the importance of rigorous safety checks. ISRO’s Gaganyaan mission, also known as H1, aims to carry one or two astronauts to low Earth orbit, roughly 400 kilometres above the planet. Somanath shared that to avoid any similar mishaps, ISRO has undertaken a systematic approach, testing complex technologies developed entirely in-house.

Preparing for the Final Crewed Launch

To support the mission, the ISRO has conducted a number of preparatory tests, including the evaluation of emergency escape mechanisms and recovery systems. The G1 flight, expected later this year, will see a humanoid robot named Vyomitra onboard to test re-entry, parachute deployment, and a controlled splashdown in the Bay of Bengal. Following G1, three more uncrewed flights will complete the testing phase.

An Ambitious Training Regime for Astronauts

The programme’s crew has been undergoing intensive training in both India and overseas. Shubhanshu Shukla, a test pilot from the Indian Air Force and one of the astronauts in training, is set to join a mission to the International Space Station, working with Axiom Space in Houston. With former NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson as mission commander, Shukla’s experience will include operations such as navigation and docking – critical skills for the Gaganyaan mission’s success.

Government Funding Boosts ISRO’s Gaganyaan Efforts

The Indian government has recently increased Gaganyaan’s budget, adding 111 billion rupees to the project to support the final testing and crew training phases. With all modules now moving to ISRO’s Sriharikota spaceport, India’s first crewed space flight is moving closer to realisation. This development reflects the government’s commitment to advancing India’s space capabilities and ensuring the mission is conducted with the highest safety standards.

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How the Tonga volcano eruption’s shockwave taught us about geohazards

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November 5, 2024

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How the Tonga volcano eruption's shockwave taught us about geohazards

On January 15, 2022, the Hunga volcano near Tonga erupted in an explosive event that sent shockwaves across the planet. The eruption happened around the same time as Cyclone Cody. It created a shockwave powerful enough to trigger low, booming sounds that were heard from New Zealand to Alaska. It also caused a tsunami that impacted distant coastlines, marking the eruption as one of the most impactful volcanic events in recent memory.

Public Observations Fill Gaps in Scientific Data

Following the eruption, GNS Science, New Zealand’s geological agency, invited residents to share their experiences. More than 2,100 people responded, reporting everything from rumbling sounds and pressure in their ears to windows rattling and animals reacting to the disturbance. By comparing these accounts with data from seismic and atmospheric sensors, scientists confirmed that these firsthand experiences mirrored instrument readings closely.

According to Dr. Emily Lane, Senior Scientist at GNS, the information provided by people across New Zealand helped researchers see patterns in how the sound traveled across the country. Most reports of loud “booms” came from the North Island, suggesting the pressure wave from the eruption traveled from north to south. The details in these reports offered scientists insights that even precise instruments might not capture alone.

New Directions for Disaster Preparedness

The crowdsourced observations also revealed how people responded when they heard the booming sounds. Many checked on family or went outside to assess the situation, while others reached out to friends to make sure they were safe. Several respondents mentioned remembering previous volcanic eruptions, showing how past experiences can influence responses to natural events.

Researchers at GNS are now exploring ways to use these kinds of reports in tracking geohazards, like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Combining public observations with scientific data could enhance future disaster preparedness, giving communities an additional layer of awareness and response to support public safety and resilience.

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World’s Largest Ocean Predator-Prey Event Captured Off Norway’s Coast

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14 hours ago

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November 5, 2024

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World's Largest Ocean Predator-Prey Event Captured Off Norway's Coast

A monumental predator-prey event in Norway’s coastal waters has captured scientists’ attention. It marks the largest observed marine feeding spectacle and highlighting significant dynamics in the food chain. Leading the research, Professor Nicholas Makris from MIT’s Department of Mechanical and Ocean Engineering, alongside his team, witnessed this unprecedented event where vast shoals of cod pursued spawning capelin, reshaping how scientists perceive these fish behaviours.

Capelin’s Spawning Journey and Role in the Ecosystem

Every February, billions of capelin—a small Arctic fish—migrate south from the Arctic ice edge to Norway’s coast to spawn. These migrations play a critical role, providing essential nourishment for seabirds, whales, and predatory fish like the Atlantic cod, and maintaining balance within the Arctic ecosystem. During the spawning season, cod take full advantage, building energy reserves that sustain them until the next migration cycle. The delicate predator-prey balance typically regulates itself naturally, but changes to this balance can have profound effects.

Innovative Sonic Imaging Maps Fish Movements

Makris’s team employed an advanced sonic imaging method called Ocean Acoustic Waveguide Remote Sensing (OAWRS) to observe these interactions on a large scale. This technology projects sound waves deep underwater to map fish populations in real-time over extensive distances. In an advance on prior techniques, they also used multispectral acoustic mapping, which distinguishes fish species by identifying their unique swim bladder resonances. Cod and capelin, for example, emit different resonant sounds—making it possible to differentiate them within large shoals.

Unprecedented Predator-Prey Formation Observed

On February 27, 2014, the capelin began moving in loosely formed clusters near the coast. As dawn approached, the capelin congregated into a dense shoal, spanning over six miles and amassing approximately 23 million fish. Reacting to this movement, nearly 2.5 million cod formed their own shoal, closing in on the capelin and consuming an estimated 10 million fish in hours. Shortly after this event, the formations dissolved, and the fish scattered.

Climate Change Concerns for Marine Populations

The implications of such large-scale predation events raise questions about the sustainability of marine species. Makris pointed out that as Arctic ice continues to retreat, capelin face longer journeys to spawning grounds, which could heighten their vulnerability. The study underscores how shifts in predator-prey dynamics due to environmental stresses could significantly impact species central to marine ecosystems.

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