Passan: Why it’s World Series or bust for the Yankees this year
-
Jeff Passan, ESPN
NEW YORK — The New York Yankees epitomize big. The brand, the payroll, the expectations, the excitement, the disappointment. It is an appropriate bit of casting that the largest star in baseball history, Aaron Judge, wears pinstripes. He is the physical embodiment of the Yankees franchise: too big to keep failing.
For the past 14 years, the Yankees have not functioned as the perpetual conquerors who have won more World Series titles than any franchise. They entered this postseason having lost 10 of their past 18 playoff series. They have fallen in their past five American League Championship Series appearances. The most recognizable franchise in baseball, whose caps are worn around the world, has been rendered just another team.
With Game 3 of the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians set for 5:08 p.m. ET on Thursday, the Yankees can taste their first World Series appearance since 2009, when they won their 27th championship. Their 6-3 win in Game 2 was New York’s fifth in six postseason games, giving them a 2-0 series lead on the Guardians.
Now is the time for them to deliver. Everything has lined up for the Yankees. They won the AL East. Their greatest tormentors, the Houston Astros, were knocked out in the first round, unable to wreck more Yankees dreams. They dispatched the pesky Kansas City Royals in the division series. And not much looks as if it will change in the ALCS. Among the five wild pitches in Game 1, the shoddy defense in Game 2 and the flaccid bats in both, the Guardians haven’t looked up to the task of beating a Yankees team that has found its groove in October.
For large chunks of the season, this team looked like a threat to win its 28th World Series. In the playoffs, New York has preyed on a pair of AL Central teams to reinforce they are the best the league has to offer. The Yankees this postseason have walked 37 times and struck out 44 times in six games. They feature a lineup whose Nos. 7-9 hitters in Game 2 went 5-for-10 and scored three runs. Their leadoff hitters have been on base in 25 of the 51 innings they’ve played in October. Their bullpen ERA is 0.77 over 23⅓ innings. They’ve given up only three stolen bases.
The only thing missing for New York had been Judge, whose failures in past Octobers — a career .769 OPS in the postseason compared to 1.010 in the regular season — are the lone ding on a pristine résumé. If he begins to perform like his MVP self — and perhaps he started something Tuesday with his first home run this October — Yankees third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. predicted nothing short of a gilded future.
“We’re World Series champions. No other doubt in my mind,” Chisholm said. “I’ve been saying it from day one, and that’s without him raking. He’s starting to come together. And now I see it.”
This has been the plan all along. They spent $360 million to re-sign Judge and gave up a boatload of talent to acquire Soto. They stuck with manager Aaron Boone and have seen him work wonders with a questionable bullpen. The Yankees are carrying themselves the way they haven’t in years — with a strut, a we’re-good-and-we-know-it attitude. Championship No. 28 is within reach. And now is the moment — first against the Guardians, then whomever wins the dogfight between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets — for 14 years of letdowns to give way and let the Yankees earn what they believe is theirs.
LAST WEEK IN Kansas City, as the champagne celebration raged inside the Yankees’ clubhouse after their division series, one person remained in the dugout. Judge was missing the tail end of the revelry, by choice, because through the bowels of the stadium walked the players’ families, ready to celebrate themselves on the Kauffman Stadium field.
This is what Judge does, and this is who he is. Family matters as much as his teammates, and he wanted them to know that. Even as his struggles at the plate mounted, Judge hadn’t lost sight of who he is, what he means and why he is the face of the Yankees.
It was simultaneously gratifying and frightening, then, to see what happened in the seventh inning of Game 2 on Tuesday night. Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis, one of the best relief pitchers in baseball this season, delivered a 95 mph fastball in a great location — the tippy-top of the strike zone, between the belt and the letters even on the 6-foot-7 Judge. It was the sort of pitch Judge saw dozens of times this season and batted .095 against.
He suffered no such frailties Tuesday. Even in the cold autumn air of Yankee Stadium, with the wind conspiring to knock down the ball, it kept flying, 414 feet, over the center-field fence, prompting paroxysms of joy among the 47,054 fans who witnessed Judge’s first major moment of this postseason.
The gratification comes from the Yankees’ immense respect for Judge — how much he cares and how he carried the team for months and how he holds people accountable without making them feel as if they’re being held accountable. As great of a player as Judge is, he is regarded as a similarly gifted leader, and to see their captain not performing to his capabilities vexed Yankees players. He had struggled for only 15 at-bats — nothing in a normal stretch, everything in October. Which is what made Judge showing signs of life frightening as well: If the Yankees were rolling through the postseason before Judge found his swing, imagine what they’ll look like if the home run off Gaddis portends more. Especially if the hitter in front of him keeps getting on base.
EVERYTHING THE YANKEES envisioned when they traded for Juan Soto last offseason has become a reality. Rare is the deal with outsize expectations that are actually met, and yet here is the 25-year-old Soto, in the midst of another postseason run, able to relish it far more than he did the first time.
Soto was 20 when the Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019. He burst on the scene a year earlier, a 19-year-old wunderkind with the best eye since Barry Bonds and preternatural power who shot balls over the fence to all fields. Winning a championship only a year later spoiled Soto.
So he’s relishing this — the opportunity to make history with a franchise where history matters more than anywhere. The trade for Soto cost the Yankees dearly in talent. Not only did they give up Michael King, who threw 173⅔ innings of 2.95 ERA ball this season, but four other players as well. All for one season of Soto.
New York knew he would be headed for free agency this winter, and that didn’t stop general manager Brian Cashman from ponying up a gargantuan package. The pressure on Cashman and Boone, vise-like in a normal year, had tightened after they went 82-80 in 2023. The previous six seasons had ended in postseason losses, but at least they ended in the postseason. This was beyond the pale: fourth place and 19 games behind an AL East-winning Baltimore team with an Opening Day payroll $217 million lower than the Yankees’ $277 million.
Acquiring one of baseball’s finest hitters solved plenty, and the evidence revealed itself early. Soto drove in runs in each of the Yankees’ first four games this season, a sweep at Houston. He proceeded to hit a career-high 41 home runs, lead the AL with 128 runs scored and get on base in 138 of the 157 games he played. And he has been magnificent this postseason, leading the Yankees with seven hits, walking as much as he has struck out and further distinguishing himself as a unique offensive presence.
A player of Soto’s talent with hunger for the moment is about as good as it gets in the sport, and the seamlessness of his transition to New York only heightens what’s ahead of him. Soto’s free agency is primed to be a frenzy: He is a $500 million-plus player, and another World Series appearance would not only validate his rightful place as one of the highest-paid athletes in history, it would reinforce just how properly this Yankees team was constructed.
HAL STEINBRENNER IS not his father. George, who bought the Yankees in 1973, won back-to-back World Series in 1977 and 1978, oversaw the four-titles-in-five-years dynasty from 1996 to 2000 and captured his final championship in 2009, a year before his death. The Yankees’ championship-or-bust standard is a George Steinbrenner creation that Hal inherited and can’t disavow.
Nor does he want to. As the Yankees barge toward a World Series berth, it’s worth remembering Steinbrenner has continued to spend money befitting the Yankees. It’s never as much as fans in New York desire, but their $296.6 million Opening Day payroll this year ranked second in MLB. Their payrolls ranks the nine years prior: 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 6, 4, 2, 2.
What’s most important — and where Cashman deserves credit — is that the players receiving the majority of that money have played central roles this postseason. Gerrit Cole ($324 million) pitched like an ace to clinch the division series. Carlos Rodon ($162 million) threw six brilliant innings in Game 1 of the ALCS, using his slider for strikeouts and inducing swings and misses on three of his four changeups. Judge is about to win his second MVP in three seasons and carried the Yankees through 162 games. Soto is Soto.
Best of all is Giancarlo Stanton, the 34-year-old slugger whose seven seasons in New York have been as much about the time he hasn’t spent on the field as the time he has. Trading for Stanton, who had nearly $300 million remaining on the final 10 years of his deal, was a risk.
Well, that’s the purpose of a giant payroll: it allows for moonshots. New York figured it was buying the best of Stanton for the first half of his time in pinstripes. The fact he has performed this October like a prime version of himself, with a 1.037 OPS and two home runs, is a reminder the Yankees do have an advantage and it is well within their rights to use it, just as the Mets and Dodgers have.
It also illustrates the biggest difference between the Yankees of past and present. Under George Steinbrenner, Stanton would almost certainly be wearing a different uniform. With Hal, patience is a virtue in which he truly believes. If he didn’t, the man running the team from the dugout almost certainly wouldn’t be there, either.
AARON BOONE IS a very good Major League Baseball manager. This sort of statement angers a fair number of Yankees fans, but it is objectively true. Boone has the deep respect of players, he fights when it’s needed, he manages stars exceptionally, he’s strategically sound a vast majority of the time, he’s conscious of history and he’s good with the media. The Yankees job is the most scrutinized in baseball, and he does pretty much every part of it well.
This postseason has been Boone’s playground. It has been only six games, so there is plenty of time for him to push a button that detonates a game, but his tactical acumen has been exceptional. Three times already he has turned to Luke Weaver — his innings-eating-long-man-turned-closer — in the eighth inning of playoff games. And he has been rewarded with a four-out save and a pair of five-out saves.
Yes, it’s the sort of thing more and more managers are doing. But it speaks to Boone’s understanding of leverage. Sometimes the biggest outs in a game come in the eighth inning, and if you’re gifted a closer who can cover multiple innings and go multiple days in a row, use him and use him plenty.
And the presence of Weaver does feel like a gift. The Yankees are the 31-year-old’s sixth major league team. He arrived in the big leagues in 2016 as a 92-mph-throwing starter. He went to Arizona in a trade, stumbled there, wasn’t any better in Kansas City, scuffled with Cincinnati and Seattle last year and wound up making three starts for the Yankees at the end of their dismal 2023. New York brought him back on a one-year, $2 million contract, and it wound up as one of the best deals of the winter.
The Yankees’ bullpen looked like a mess in early September. Boone finally tired of Clay Holmes‘ blown saves and removed him from the closer’s role. The only pitcher New York acquired at the trade deadline, Mark Leiter Jr., flopped and didn’t crack the Yankees’ ALDS or ALCS rosters. Boone wasn’t comfortable with Jake Cousins (too many walks) or Tim Hill (too few strikeouts). He trusts Tommy Kahnle, but in 221 career games with the Yankees, he has only four saves, an indication of New York’s reticence to throw him in the ninth.
The job went to Weaver almost by default, and all he has done since is get hitters out. Since his first save Sept. 6, Weaver has thrown 18 innings, given up seven hits, walked four and struck out 33. His ERA is 0.50. He is not Mariano Rivera, but he’s doing one hell of an impersonation. And along the way, Holmes has righted himself: 14⅔ innings, nine hits, five walks, 13 strikeouts and 1.23 ERA — with nary a run scored in 6⅔ postseason innings.
Every championship team has its surprises, and the Yankees’ bullpen turning into a weapon — in similar fashion to Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz having the October of their lives with Texas last season — qualifies. Yankees relievers have been so good that it might make a regular observer of baseball wonder: Can they really keep it up?
NOW THAT THE Yankees find themselves here, two wins from the World Series, six victories from a parade down New York’s Canyon of Heroes. And with their path to a title as favorable as they’ve had in years, it’s incumbent on them to finish the job. Beating a pair of AL Central teams is one thing. Doing it against a National League team that survived the gauntlet of the far better league will require something different altogether.
Sure, Judge hit a home run — but his previous 26 plate appearances left plenty to be desired. Weaver and Holmes have been the best relief duo this postseason — but Boone’s reliance on them surely has an expiration date, and pitching both in each of New York’s six playoff games runs the risk of overexposure, regardless of how good their stuff looks. The Yankees have won tight, hard-fought games. Their victories against Kansas City came by one, one and two runs, and their two wins against Cleveland are by three runs apiece. Despite being gifted a dropped pop-up and bobble in right field by the Guardians, New York needed Judge’s home run to provide a decent cushion in Game 2.
Carrying a 2-0 series lead into Cleveland helps allay fears. There will be at least one more game played at Yankee Stadium this year, and the Guardians see Game 3 as a must-win. Teams that start a seven-game league championship series with a pair of wins are 32-5. Only once has a team fought from a 3-0 deficit to take an LCS.
And that, of course, was the Boston Red Sox‘s famous comeback against the Yankees in 2004. Cleveland will be hard-pressed to find the same sort of magic against this Yankees team. They’ll need to beat Clarke Schmidt, who, when healthy, was a nightmare for opposing hitters. Particularly terrifying for Cleveland is that against the Guardians’ mostly left-handed lineup, Schmidt, who ditched his changeup this season, will rely heavily on his cutter to saw off Guardians hitters. And no team in MLB this year had a lower OPS on cutters thrown by right-handed pitchers than the Guardians’ .653.
Schmidt is the Yankees’ No. 3 starter, and he finished the season with a 2.85 ERA, and it’s just another sign that for all the lamenting that New York was simply a two-man team with Judge and Soto, that was never true. There is substance to these Yankees. They’re not here just to do something. They’re here to do something big, the only way they know how.
Trailing Ole Miss after halftime, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton delivered in a big moment once again in the Bulldogs’ come-from-behind win over the fifth-ranked Rebels on Saturday.
“He’s wired for these tight moments because he’s tough,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward of the Bulldogs’ quarterback. “His team believes in him.”
Nearly 60% of the way through the 2025 college football regular season, we’re learning more about the nation’s top programs with each passing week. Rising stars, like Stockton, are emerging. Surprise powers are gaining steam in the College Football Playoff race. And once-vaunted title contenders are showing their true colors, falling off one by one.
Week 8 featured statement wins in the SEC from Alabama, Georgia and Vanderbilt and gut-check defeats for CFP favorites Miami, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. Quarterbacks Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) and Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) padded their Heisman Trophy résumés, while Carson Beck‘s candidacy suffered a blow in Miami’s defeat to Louisville. At Notre Dame, we saw just how dangerous the Fighting Irish can be when, you know, they simply hand the ball off to Jeremiyah Love.
With Week 8 in the books, this week’s power rankings explore the biggest lessons we’ve learned about the top teams across the country so far this fall. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 1
The Buckeyes brought back a pair of star defenders from last year’s national championship team in safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles. Yet there might not be a defender playing better in college football than Styles’ cohort at linebacker, Arvell Reese. The junior from Cleveland has been an absolute game-wrecker, compiling a team-high 42 tackles and 5.5 sacks for a defense that has given up just 41 points all season. Reese is establishing himself as a first-round NFL draft talent while teaming up with Styles to give the Buckeyes the best linebacking duo in the country. Ohio State had the No. 1-ranked defense last year. Reese is a big reason the Buckeyes are suffocating the opposition once again. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 3
The Hoosiers have another star at quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, who not only has emerged as a Heisman front-runner but is rocketing up 2026 NFL draft boards as potentially the top quarterback prospect. The Cal transfer has completed 73.5% of his passes and tossed a national-best 21 touchdowns with only two interceptions. Mendoza is also fifth nationally with a QBR of 87.7 and fourth in yards per passing attempt (9.7). Indiana won 10 games for the first time in school history and made it to the playoff last year behind the arm of Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The second-ranked Hoosiers are getting even better quarterback play this season. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 4
The biggest lesson Texas A&M has learned this year, according to coach Mike Elko, is how to win. That was tested again Saturday against a dangerous Arkansas team in Bobby Petrino’s first home game since returning as interim coach, and just the Aggies’ second visit to Fayetteville since 1990, when the Ags and Hogs were Southwest Conference members. Marcel Reed threw for 280 yards and three TDs and ran for 55 yards and another score — he had another 57-yard TD run called back on a penalty — and A&M is 7-0 for the first time since 1994. The Aggies allowed 8.4 yards per carry and will have to tighten that up. They head to Baton Rouge this week to face an LSU team coming off a loss to Vanderbilt, then play at Missouri, before returning home to face South Carolina and Samford, setting up the final-game showdown against Texas. The schedule is tough but manageable, and now Elko will find out how far along they are in their education. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 7
Perhaps the biggest lesson the Crimson Tide have learned is how to play with an edge, something that was missing in the season-opening loss to Florida State. Over their six-game winning streak, the Tide have rewritten the narrative to their season, and coach Kalen DeBoer praised his team for finding a different way to win every week with the type of edge that makes the difference. In a 37-20 win over Tennessee, it was the defense that stepped up for its best performance to date. Ty Simpson has led the way with his steady leadership, making clutch throws to help the Tide seal wins against Georgia and Missouri. It has not looked pretty at times, and DeBoer acknowledges this team still has a long way to go, but the sign of any good team is finding ways to win. And that is what Alabama has done since the opener. The Crimson Tide are now sitting in great position to make their way back to the SEC title game, particularly after four straight wins against ranked conference opponents. Quite the turnaround from late August, when there were questions about whether DeBoer was the right guy to lead this team. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 8
Georgia fans who had any lingering doubts about quarterback Gunner Stockton probably don’t have them any longer after Saturday’s 43-35 victory against Ole Miss. After missing two days of practice because of an oblique injury he sustained in the victory at Auburn on Oct. 11, Stockton returned and had the best game of his career against the Rebels. He completed 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards, ran 10 times for 59 yards and scored five total touchdowns. Stockton was a perfect 12-for-12 with three touchdowns in the second half. In his first full season as Georgia’s starter, Stockton has shown plenty of toughness, physically and mentally. Even when the Bulldogs fell behind in games against Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss, Stockton never flinched. He ranks No. 2 in the FBS in total QBR (91.0) and has thrown only one interception with 17 total touchdowns. — Mark Schlabach
Previous ranking: 9
After losing their first home game in the Dan Lanning era since 2022, the Ducks took out their frustration on Rutgers, scoring 56 points in just three quarters and gaining 750 total yards on their way to a commanding bounce-back victory. Oregon’s misstep against Indiana on Oct. 11 could have allowed for the cross-country road trip to be a letdown spot. Instead, Lanning & Co. proved that the Ducks still have all the makings of a title contender. If there’s any lesson they have learned through seven games, it is that their running game is as good as any in the country and likely should be what carries them forward the rest of the season. On Saturday, they rushed for 415 yards, bumping their average per game to 243 yards — the ninth-best mark in the nation — and this season they boast four rushers who have 249 yards or more on the ground and have combined for 18 rushing touchdowns. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 10
The last remaining unbeaten team in the ACC? That would be the Yellow Jackets, just as we all predicted back in August, right? Saturday’s win at Duke was hardly emphatic, but Tech got the breaks it needed, and Haynes King was outstanding once again, throwing for 205 yards, running for 120 and scoring once. The fact Duke tested Georgia Tech’s secondary isn’t a surprise. The Blue Devils’ passing attack is ferocious. And any red flags raised aren’t likely to be serious concerns against the next few opponents. But awaiting at year’s end is Georgia, and the Bulldogs will test Georgia Tech’s defense significantly. The Jackets need to be ready. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 2
Carson Beck’s four interceptions doomed Miami in a loss to Louisville that felt like another check mark in the “How to blow your postseason expectations” playbook the Canes have run for a while now. Instead, it was probably more of a warning sign that some things need to be fixed ASAP if Miami still has title hopes — namely a stagnating run game and a lack of a third weapon in the passing game. Malachi Toney and, to a lesser degree, CJ Daniels, are threats at receiver. No one else has contributed much of anything in the past month. Can Miami develop a threat — Elija Lofton? Keelan Marion? — and open a few more holes at the line of scrimmage for the backs? If not, this season could go south on the back half of the schedule just as it did last year. — Hale
Previous ranking: 5
The Rebels scored enough points to win at Georgia on Saturday, but their defense couldn’t get the Bulldogs off the field, especially in the fourth quarter when it mattered most. Georgia had 510 yards of offense and 34 first downs. The Bulldogs ran for 221 yards, converted 6 of 11 third-down conversions and controlled the clock for 37:39. Even worse, the Bulldogs scored on each of their first eight possessions and never punted.
“It really wasn’t one thing,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said. “They really kind of did everything there. We did limit explosive plays, but it was a slow death. Thirty-four first downs, that’s hard to do against the [scout] team.”
Can the Rebels make enough corrections on that side of the ball to remain a legitimate CFP contender? After their upcoming trip to Oklahoma, they have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way with three straight road games against South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida before closing the regular season at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28. — Schlabach
Previous ranking: 14
The Cougars have won 17 of their past 19 games. There is just a winning DNA that permeates through the program at this point, and any concern about being able to win with a true freshman quarterback should be gone. There is something about their ability to keep winning close games that manages to both inspire confidence and spark some concern. There is confidence in knowing they won’t get rattled, but at the same time, there still really hasn’t been a comprehensive performance where they clicked in all phases of the game. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 6
The Red Raiders got their first taste of adversity in Tempe, coming into the game averaging 558.8 yards per game — best in the FBS — but managing just 276 in a 26-22 loss to Arizona State without starting quarterback Behren Morton, who was out with an injury. Still, Texas Tech was down 12 points in the fourth quarter and rallied to take the lead, before Sam Leavitt drove ASU to the game-winning score with 34 seconds left, a bitter ending for a Tech defense that has been among the nation’s best. The Red Raiders have a showdown looming with undefeated BYU on Nov. 8 that will have massive Big 12 title and College Football Playoff implications, but the rest of the schedule shapes up nicely, with a home game against 1-6 Oklahoma State this week. Other than the Cougars and Cowboys, Tech has Kansas State, UCF and West Virginia remaining, with a combined 9-12 record, 3-9 in the Big 12. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 20
Coach Clark Lea said before the Week 8 game that his team didn’t play Vanderbilt football all the way to the finish against Alabama and that he hoped to see a more resilient response against LSU. The Commodores pulled off a 31-24 win Saturday, their first victory over LSU in 35 years, with poised play in all three phases of the game. Quarterback Diego Pavia was a magician as usual, but his defense deserves a ton of credit for how it fought back to stop drives and forced LSU to settle for four field goal attempts, including a 23-yarder after the Tigers got down to the 1-yard line. This is not the same team that lost four of its last five in SEC play last year after a hot start. Vandy is 6-1 and will be a contender in the SEC (and CFP) race the rest of the way. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 13
Unlike a year ago, the Sooners have a formula for winning games in 2025. Oklahoma’s smothering defense once again led the way in Saturday’s 26-7 win over South Carolina, limiting the Gamecocks to 54 rushing yards and sacking quarterback LaNorris Sellers six times, while the John Mateer-powered offense provided just enough scoring for the Sooners. Encouragingly, a previously sleepy Oklahoma run game showed life in Week 8; the 171 rushing yards, led by freshman Tory Blaylock (101 yards), marked the program’s most productive rushing performance against a power-conference opponent this fall. The same formula Oklahoma relied upon during its hot start in September did the job again Saturday in a critical post-Texas rebound. The question now: Will the combination of elite defense and timely playmaking from Mateer & Co. hold up against stiffer competition? Time will tell as the Sooners open a run of five consecutive ranked matchups to close the regular season, with a visit from Ole Miss in Week 9. — Lederman
Previous ranking: 16
Giving the ball to Jeremiyah Love — and fellow star running back Jadarian Price — in as many ways as possible is always a good idea. Love, who infamously received only 14 touches in a season-opening loss to Miami, ran for 228 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries in Saturday’s win against USC and added five receptions for 37 yards. Price, who had only six carries in the Miami loss, had 87 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, with a 100-yard kick return touchdown after Notre Dame had fallen behind. “We start with the run game,” Price said. The Irish also learned they’re gradually making strides on defense, especially up front, but also with a secondary that made enough plays against the potent USC passing attack. — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 15
If nothing else, Mizzou is a ridiculously resilient team. Somehow only heading on the road for the first time this season, the Tigers watched a number of drives stall out near midfield and found themselves trailing 14-10 with Auburn facing a third-and-goal from the 1. But Marquis Gracial stuffed Jeremiah Cobb for a loss and forced a field goal, Mizzou tied the game at 17-17, and even when the offense faltered on a late drive in regulation and missed a field goal in overtime, the defense kept making plays. Auburn’s last 17 snaps gained just 29 yards, and with Beau Pribula‘s second overtime touchdown, Mizzou survived, 23-17, and advanced to 6-1. There’s nothing pretty about playing Auburn this season, but Mizzou escaped. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 19
In the longstanding debate over whether it’s better to be lucky or good, Virginia would certainly hope it checks enough boxes in the latter category, but its past three games have certainly made the case for the former. The Cavaliers needed double overtime to beat Florida State, two defensive touchdowns and overtime to beat Louisville, and on Saturday, had to erase a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to Washington State before winning on a late safety that followed a dismal mistake on a fair catch call near the goal line by the Cougars. Add it all up, the Hoos are 6-1, bowl eligible and in control of their destiny in the ACC — but play with fire too many times and sooner or later, they’re going to get burned. — Hale
Previous ranking: 21
The biggest revelation is that the Bulls are in a great position to represent the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff. Behind dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, the Bulls keep on rolling through their American conference schedule. And with an early season win over Florida, USF is ranked in the top 20 for the first time since 2016. There are tough conference tests ahead, including games against Memphis and Navy (undefeated), but USF is playing with confidence behind its veteran quarterback and an aggressive defense that has improved noticeably over the past season. They did lose to Miami earlier this season, but if anything, that game showed a need to play better up front and that’s what has happened. The Bulls might already be bowl eligible, but coach Alex Golesh said the goals are much higher now and there is no time to celebrate. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 11
If there is one key difference between the Vols this year and last year, it is their defense. Simply put, Tennessee is not as consistent on that side of the ball as it needs to be — ranking among the worst in the SEC in a host of categories. While the Vols held Alabama to under 400 yards of offense in a 37-20 loss, there were also too many big plays given up — particularly on key downs. Joey Aguilar has been steady, but he has also had turnovers at crucial moments in games. It happened again Saturday — Alabama got him to intentionally ground the ball for a safety, and then a 99-yard pick-sick at the end of the first half ultimately doomed them. The run game is not nearly as productive as a year ago either, and the combination of all three has hurt the Vols in some big-time moments. Having said that, this is still one of the best offenses in the country. If the defense can find ways to be more productive, Tennessee could be in the mix for an at-large CFP berth down the stretch. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 24
Don’t sleep on the Bearcats. They’ve won six in a row since their last-minute loss to Nebraska in Kansas City to open the season. They took care of business on the road Saturday with a 49-17 rout of Oklahoma State and remain tied with BYU atop the Big 12 standings. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby continues to play with consistency and ranks seventh in the FBS in QBR (85.0), and the Bearcats’ defense finally grabbed its first interception of the season with cornerback Matthew McDoom snagging a goal-line pick and racing 100 yards for a touchdown. This team keeps getting better as it goes and will be ready for the tough tests ahead against Utah and BYU. — Olson
Previous ranking: NR
The most impressive thing that has been learned about the Cards is that they have an elite defense this year. That was not the case in 2024 when Louisville struggled to both create pressure up front and limit explosive plays in the passing game. Coach Jeff Brohm took a more active role with the defense and the results have been immediate. Louisville ranks in the top 15 in the country in total defense, and that was on full display in an upset win over Miami this past weekend. The Cards completely shut down the Miami run game, holding the Hurricanes to 63 yards on the ground and had four total interceptions. Their run game got going, too, and the offensive line played its best game of the season. If Louisville can continue to play complementary football, it might very well play its way into the ACC championship game. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 18
Sometimes a win feels less like a win than an endurance contest, and regardless of how it feels, the Longhorns will take it after a 16-13 overtime win at Kentucky, which was 2-3 and 0-3 in the SEC going into the game. Texas had just 179 yards of offense — its fewest in a win in at least 30 years — with eight first downs. Arch Manning struggled, too, going 12-of-27 for 132 yards. The Horns’ leading rusher, Quintrevion Wisner, had 12 carries for 37 yards and Manning, who had pressure in his face much of the evening, had 11 carries for -1 yard. Texas suddenly has a challenging schedule down the stretch, with a road trip to Starkville against Mississippi State, followed by No. 10 Vanderbilt, at No. 5 Georgia, home against a dangerous Arkansas team and then finishes the season with No. 3 Texas A&M. If the offense can’t get things straightened out quickly, danger lurks down the stretch. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 17
The Trojans have one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in Jayden Maiava and a passing attack that should strike fear in most opponents. But their inability to finish games on the road, especially when opportunities present themselves, remains a major drawback for coach Lincoln Riley. USC could have stolen a game at Illinois but was unable to get a final defensive stop. The Trojans took a third quarter lead at Notre Dame, only to give it right back after allowing a 100-yard kick return touchdown to Jadarian Price. After converting a third-and-9 to enter Notre Dame territory, Riley inexplicably called for a wide receiver option, which resulted in a turnover that swung momentum for good. Riley called it “a stupid call,” and he was right. USC has improved from last year but still needs to figure out how to play better on the road. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: NR
The Illini learned they have a big-time quarterback in Luke Altmyer and an improved downfield passing attack, highlighted by wide receiver Hank Beatty, which averages 9.4 yards per attempt and has recorded 23 completions of 20 yards or longer. Illinois also knows it must play better along the line of scrimmage, and avoid critical breakdowns, to hang with the better opponents left on its schedule. The Illini have as many sacks allowed as 20-yard completions and are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush with only one run longer than 26 yards all season. Their defense held up decently against top-ranked Ohio State, but they have struggled against the pass rush and rank near the bottom of the FBS in third-down defense (45.1% conversions). Those areas must improve after a much needed open week as Illinois visits Washington. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: NR
The Wolverines went out and won the way Sherrone Moore wanted to see on Saturday in a 24-7 home win over Washington. Their defense rebounded from a 31-13 loss to USC and flipped a close game with two second-half interceptions off Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. Running back Jordan Marshall stepped up for an injured Justice Haynes with a career-high 133 rushing yards. This one felt like a must-win with a manageable four-game stretch ahead that sets this team up to be 9-2 entering its showdown with its top-ranked rival. — Olson
Previous ranking: NR
Idle in Week 8, Navy stands as one of six remaining unbeaten programs across major college football. Powered by the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense (305 YPG), the Midshipmen have proven to this point that last season’s 10-3 finish — the program’s best since 2019 — was not an aberration, but a signal of the program’s progression under third-year coach Brian Newberry. Navy is once again leaning on hard-running quarterback Blake Horvath, who ranks second in rushing yards among quarterbacks nationally. Meanwhile, a Midshipmen defense that finished 34th in scoring defense a year ago has remained similarly stingy in 2025, allowing opponents only 21.5 points per game. In the thick of the American Conference title race for a second straight year, Navy has major tests ahead of it in November with ranked matchups against Notre Dame, South Florida and Memphis still to come before the program’s annual meeting with Army on Dec. 13. — Lederman
Matthew Schaefer has had quite the debut in the NHL, hasn’t he? He’s scored a point in every game he’s played — including a fun first NHL goal. ESPN analyst John Tortorella noted that he reminds him of Hall of Famer Chris Pronger with his skating … that’s not bad at all for the New York Islanders‘ first overall pick from the 2025 draft.
The debut has also been historical. Schaefer started his NHL career with a five-game point streak (and counting). That’s the second longest point streak by any defenseman from the start of their career, behind only Marek Zidlicky (six games) in 2003-04. He is the first 18-year-old defenseman in NHL history to achieve that (every other 18-year-old on the list was a forward).
His first NHL goal was electric. There was a big scrum in front on an Islanders power play, amid the chaos the puck is lost, and Schaefer barges in from the blue line and pokes the puck that was barely visible under Logan Thompson‘s pads into the net in a seamless motion. Among his many other traits, the hockey IQ is quite high.
Schaefer turned 18 on Sept. 5; yes, just over a month ago. He is the youngest defenseman to make his NHL debut, to record a point in his NHL debut, the youngest NHL player on record to score his first goal on the power play, and the youngest player to play 25-plus minutes in a game.
He’s also garnering a lot of early “Isles franchise player of the future” nods from the Islanders faithful. It might be a bit early to be doling out accolades like that. But Matthew Schaefer is definitely fun to watch, and the best is yet to come.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I liked this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Biggest games of the week
7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Obviously the biggest game of the week from a storyline perspective is Brad Marchand returning for his first game in Boston. He was injured the last time the Panthers visited Boston, so all of the pomp and circumstance will come during this game.
Marchand is a banner- and statue-level guy in Beantown, without question. I expect an extended ovation, then the fans booing him when he levels David Pastrnak in a scrum.
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Two playoff teams from last season. Star power aplenty, with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt on one side, against Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares on the other.
But there’s another wrinkle to this one. Greg Wyshynski and I created a brand new “North American Hockey Championship” title belt for our digital show “The Drop,” and it’s currently held by me thanks to the Canadian victory in last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off. This is how title defenses work: for every Canada vs. USA international game, men’s or women’s, the title is automatically on the line. In addition, the challenger can choose any NHL game with any sort of Canada vs. USA connection for the belt to be up for grabs.
In this case it’s easy — an American team visiting a Canadian one — and it’s the team for which Wysh grew up rooting against the one for which I grew up rooting. If the Devils win, then the U.S. is the new North American hockey champion. If the Leafs win, Canada retains.
Other key matchups this week
10 p.m. ET | ESPN+
10 p.m. ET | ESPN
9 p.m. ET | ESPN+
9 p.m. ET | ESPN+
6 p.m. ET | ESPN+
What I liked this weekend
Friday was a big day for college hockey. On paper, Boston University vs. Michigan State was already a heavyweight matchup — 34 NHL prospects with 20 NHL teams were represented in the game. The game was broadcast on ESPN2, which is terrific for a matchup so early in the college hockey season. This is the dawn of a new era of NCAA on the ice, with the rules surrounding CHL players changing, and the continued growth and interest in the college game.
The Spartans led 2-0 through two periods, but BU fought back and the game went to overtime tied 3-3. BU’s Cole Eiserman (Islanders prospect) appeared to win it, but MSU’s Shane Vansaghi (Flyers) swept the puck away before it crossed the goal line. The Spartans brought it back the other way, and Matt Basgall (undrafted) scored off a feed from Ryker Lee (Predators).
Also, count me in as a fan of the NHL’s newest mascot, Tusky. I like Tusky’s overall look, and particularly his dark blue mohawk. I thought the introduction of breaking through blocks of foam ice was cute, and the name is easy for kids to say. I’m a massive fan of mascots — they are critical to game presentation and in-arena fun, to social content, and especially to helping kids and new hockey fans make core memories. I look forward to seeing what fun things the Mammoth have planned for Tusky.
Tusky is here, and he’s perfect! @TuskyNHL pic.twitter.com/APOr2NnYGG
— Utah Mammoth (@utahmammoth) October 16, 2025
MVP candidates if the season ended today…
Vegas center Jack Eichel leads the league with 15 points. He had some support for the Hart among our ESPN hockey crew this preseason, and could remain a top candidate all season (particularly if the scoring keeps up).
0:49
Jack Eichel nets goal for Golden Knights
Jack Eichel lights the lamp for Golden Knights
Speaking of lighting up the scoreboard, Ottawa Senators forward Shane Pinto has seven goals through six games, with all seven of them at even strength. The Senators will need to find other sources of scoring while Brady Tkachuk is out.
Given that goaltender Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart last season, we can’t forget the netminders this season either. You’d have to take a long look at New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin. Despite going 2-2-1, he boasts a .962 save percentage and is allowing only one goal per game on average. Scott Wedgewood might win out among goalies, however, as he’s started the season 5-0-1 with a .938 save percentage, saving 136 of 145 shots for the first-place Colorado Avalanche.
And hey, if the season ended today, I’d even toss Matthew Schaefer‘s name in the mix based on all the ridiculous stats I highlighted earlier.
Hockey social media post of the week
One of my favorite people on social media is “Kickball Dad” — especially when the Miami Dolphins do something to annoy him, or he’s zipping around the backyard on his mower. He might also be the first person in recorded history to shoot hockey pucks on the beach in the Bahamas.
He’s also a massive Devils fan, and made a video going to the home opener:
It all comes down to Game 7 in the American League Championship Series — with a trip to the World Series on the line.
The Toronto Blue Jays cruised to victory over the Seattle Mariners in a must-win Game 6 on Sunday night to keep their championship aspirations alive and force Monday’s win-or-go-home ALCS finale, with the winner set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic.
Will Toronto finish off the comeback, or will Seattle punch its ticket to its first World Series appearance? We asked our MLB experts to answer seven questions that will decide Game 7 — plus a bonus one looking forward to how the AL pennant winner could match up against the reigning champions.
1. How much will home-field advantage matter for Toronto in Game 7?
Jorge Castillo: It doesn’t hurt. The crowds at Rogers Centre down the stretch of the regular season and into October have been electric. Players have repeatedly complimented the atmosphere. But the Mariners won Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. Those crowds were raucous and it didn’t matter.
Buster Olney: It could mean nothing; the Mariners know they can win in Toronto, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But I do think that getting a lead will be important, because if Seattle falls behind by two or three runs, the challenge of winning one final game at Rogers Centre will be made more difficult by the bonkers crowd.
2. The Mariners have had vibes on their side all season long. How much will Seattle’s ability to keep finding a way matter in Game 7?
Jeff Passan: Vibes take a team only so far. The Mariners are here because of their starting pitching and ability to hit home runs — and they need George Kirby to avoid another disastrous start and the offense to chill with the strikeouts. In Game 3, Kirby got shelled for eight runs, half of which came on three home runs. He instead needs to channel his last win-or-go-home game, when he throttled Detroit for five innings in the division series.
While Seattle has outhomered the Blue Jays in the ALCS, its 28.1% strikeout rate is not good, and Shane Bieber, on the mound for Toronto, will rely heavily on spin — so that happens to play right into his wheelhouse. Both teams are worn down, and getting an early lead would go a long way toward getting the Mariners’ offense right.
Olney: After Game 6, the Mariners talked about how their energy is good and that coming back is part of their identity. But it’s much more important for Seattle to play a clean game — which Julio Rodriguez mentioned after Sunday’s loss. The Mariners made many mistakes early in Game 6, with defensive errors from Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez and a baserunning mistake by J.P. Crawford. The Blue Jays consistently put the ball in play and pressure the defense, and Seattle has to respond better to survive.
3. Which team has the Game 7 pitching advantage, and why?
David Schoenfield: Slight edge overall to the Blue Jays, mostly based on how the pitching matchup played out in Game 3, when Bieber pitched well (six innings, four hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, 16 swinging strikes) and Kirby did not (four innings, eight runs, three home runs, nine swinging strikes). The Mariners have the late-game edge with Andres Munoz, who will have two days of rest after not pitching in Game 6; Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches Sunday.
The Mariners do have some early long relief options available in Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo (who threw just 48 pitches in his Game 4 start), but Castillo has been terrible on the road and Woo is an unknown risk, pitching on two days of rest coming off an injury. Look for Kevin Gausman to be a bullpen option for the Blue Jays. Indeed, the Jays would probably like to use Bieber, Gausman, Louis Varland and Hoffman and go no deeper in their pen than that. If someone else gets in the game, though, the Mariners have a chance.
Castillo: The starting pitching edge goes to Toronto for the reasons David presented, but the unknown variable here is Bryan Woo. The All-Star right-hander was Seattle’s ace during the regular season, but a pectoral injury has limited him to those two innings in Game 5. If he can give the Mariners any real, effective length, I think the overall advantage goes to Seattle with Andrés Muñoz also on three days’ rest. Woo is the best pitcher in this series when healthy. He could be the difference.
4. Which player MUST deliver for Seattle to win?
Schoenfield: Kirby. Through six ALCS games, Bryce Miller is the only Mariners starter who has had a good game — and he was the worst of the group in the regular season. Even with two solid efforts from Miller, the rotation has a 7.33 ERA in this series, allowing a .310 average and .993 OPS. Kirby doesn’t have to go deep — and won’t be expected to — but Seattle needs four or five strong innings from him.
Castillo: Since David went with Kirby, I’ll go with Cal Raleigh. The AL MVP candidate has been Seattle’s best player all year, from the regular season through the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. So it was strange to see him have such a rough Game 6, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, a GIDP, and a throwing error that allowed Toronto’s final run to score. It’s hard to imagine the Mariners winning Game 7 without some contributions from Raleigh.
5. Which player MUST deliver for Toronto to move on?
Passan: In the Blue Jays’ six wins this postseason, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and one strikeout in 30 plate appearances. He is a human litmus test and a reminder that as Vlad Jr. goes, so go the Blue Jays. Getting a good start from Bieber would help plenty — Toronto’s bullpen this postseason has been so helter skelter, relying on any reliever for too long is inviting disaster — but amid the endless cycling of pitchers expected in Game 7, the players with the opportunities to do the most will be on the offensive side. And in the ALCS, no one has been better than Guerrero, who has struck out just twice in 47 plate appearances this postseason.
Olney: Bieber, due to all of the uncertainty presented by the Toronto bullpen. It’s unclear how much Hoffman can provide following his Game 6 outing, and while Varland is trusted, he’s also going to be working on back-to-back days. Jays manager John Schneider talked before Game 6 about possibly using Max Scherzer out of the bullpen, or maybe Chris Bassitt, but it’s difficult to know exactly what he’s going to get from either.
The Jays traded for Bieber at the deadline in the hope that he could pitch meaningful games for them, and it’s hard to imagine a situation more important to a franchise playing for the opportunity to go to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.
6. Call your shot: Who is one unexpected player you think could decide Game 7?
Schoenfield: Ernie Clement has become less surprising as the postseason has rolled along, as he’s hitting .447. Remarkably, he and Guerrero have struck out just twice each in 10 postseason games. That sums up Toronto’s advantage at the plate: These guys put the ball in play. Considering Guerrero might not see a pitch any closer than Manitoba in this game, the players coming up behind him might have to do the damage — and Clement is one of those who will get RBI opportunities.
Passan: Crawford bats in the bottom third of the Mariners’ lineup and has only two hits in the ALCS. So why him? Well, he’s due, for one, but beyond that, Crawford puts together excellent plate appearances every time up — his 4.5 pitches per is the second-highest number among regulars — and he has the lowest strikeout rate among any Seattle player this series.
During the regular season, Crawford’s high-leverage numbers were off the charts: .340/.476/.620. He craves moments that matter. And none in the history of the Mariners franchise matters as much as a Game 7 with a chance to go to the World Series.
7. And really call your shot: Which team will be the last one standing in this ALCS?
Castillo: I’ve written this before and I’ll write it again: I picked Seattle to win the World Series before the season began so I’m not going to deviate from that even though the Blue Jays have been the better team since dropping the first two games of this series. Seattle rebounds with a 6-4 win.
Passan: The coin-flip nature of postseason baseball is personified by the record of home teams in winner-takes-all games: 71-67. And considering how back-and-forth this series has been, either team emerging would make plenty of sense. The idea that Kirby and Bieber both shove is very realistic, which would make this a battle of the bullpens. With Andrés Muńoz able to work multiple innings after two days’ rest and Hoffman coming off a 35-pitch outing, though, the edge tilts ever so slightly in Seattle’s favor. The Mariners advance to their first World Series with a 3-2 win.
Bonus: Which team should the Dodgers want to see move on — or is L.A. simply too good for it to matter?
Passan: Simply because Los Angeles would have home-field advantage and less strenuous travel, the answer is Seattle. In terms of talent, as the ALCS has illustrated, the Blue Jays and Mariners are about as evenly matched as it gets. The Blue Jays’ lack of an effective left-handed reliever against a Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy would work decidedly in Los Angeles’ favor.
Similarly, the Mariners have difficulty hitting high-octane fastballs. Their regular-season OPS against 97-mph-plus heaters was .639 (compared to Toronto’s MLB-best .766), and while they have hit four home runs off such pitches in the postseason, they remain susceptible. In the end, whoever advances faces a juggernaut that will be heavily favored and rightfully so.
Olney: In speaking with some evaluators with other teams, there is near unanimity in the opinion that the Blue Jays would present a better challenge to L.A. because of the nature of their offense. They can put the ball in play more consistently and, of course, have Guerrero; with all due respect to all of the future Hall of Famers in the Dodgers’ lineup, Guerrero would be the most dangerous hitter in any series he played in right now.
We’ll see that in Game 7, when it seems very likely the Mariners will pitch around him just about every opportunity they have — an appropriate response when facing a guy who has more homers (six) than strikeouts (two) in the postseason.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024