The World Series matchup is set! How Dodgers and Yankees can win it all
The 2024 World Series matchup is set, and it will be a star-studded showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees.
After the Yankees put away the Cleveland Guardians on Juan Soto‘s extra-innings home run in Game 5 of the ALCS on Saturday night, the Dodgers finished off the New York Mets with a Game 6 win in the NLCS on Sunday.
What carried New York and Los Angeles this far — and will it continue to work in the Fall Classic? What can we expect from Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani? And which other stars must shine for each team to win? Our MLB experts are here with your first look at a showdown between two of MLB’s premier franchises.
New York Yankees
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Yankees to the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: The stress they apply on opposing pitchers. The Yankees, in particular the top four hitters in their lineup, have made pitchers work. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt succinctly described the challenge before Game 5 of the ALCS: They’re on the fastball, and they don’t chase. The Yankees are averaging four pitches per plate appearance in the playoffs. They are drawing walks at a high clip. The constant traffic creates constant pressure. And it starts early: Leadoff hitter Gleyber Torres has reached base in the first inning in eight of the Yankees’ nine playoff games. Juan Soto, their 2-hole hitter, has done it in seven games. That increases pitch counts early, which leads to a quicker hook for opposing starting pitchers, which taxes bullpens over a series. It’s a grind, and it’s an effective blueprint.
Bradford Doolittle: Patience. Those walks galore have kept the pressure on opposing pitchers and set up the big moments for the Yankees’ offense, which have usually come in the form of clutch, multi-run homers. Runs have been at a premium on the AL side of the proceedings and instead of getting out of their approach in an effort to make something happen, from top to bottom New York has been able to maintain this key aspect of its regular-season attack.
Jeff Passan: Their ability to get on base. The Yankees have an AL-best .347 on-base percentage and are walking in a staggering 13.9% of plate appearances. Walks are up across the board in the postseason — the playoffs-wide walk rate is 9.9%, compared to 8.2% in the regular season — but among their nine regulars, seven Yankees are walking at least 11.1% of the time. What’s especially impressive is their on-base percentage to lead off innings: .450. By now, it should be boilerplate: the easiest way to score runs is to put people on base. And the Yankees have scored enough to make it to the World Series.
Why will — or won’t — it continue against the Dodgers?
Castillo: The guess here is it will. Like the Guardians, the Dodgers have relied heavily on their bullpen in the postseason. Their three starters — Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler — have had uneven postseasons. They have combined to make eight playoff starts. Four of those starts have lasted fewer than five innings. Add in at least one bullpen game, if not two, over the course of the series, and the Yankees have the recipe to grind the Dodgers’ pitching staff down.
Doolittle: I think it will continue, but the problem is that the advantage the Yankees have in this department disappears because the Dodgers are just as good collectively when it comes to grinding down opposing pitchers. The key to the series might be the walks department, either because one team does a better job of preventing them or does a better job of capitalizing on them in the form of big home runs.
Passan: It will, because the Dodgers are susceptible to the walk — and L.A.’s pitchers don’t strike out oodles of hitters. Los Angeles’ advantage early in the series is that it will be able to give the Yankees plenty of different looks among its array of bullpen arms. If the Yankees weather those early games, the familiarity penalty could work in favor of New York’s offense later in the series. (This goes both ways, to be clear.) New York’s hitting depth has blossomed this October, and it’s the sort that’s smart enough not to get bullpenned to death.
It has been an up-and-down postseason for Aaron Judge. What should we expect to see from him in the World Series?
Castillo: More success. Judge hasn’t been MVP Judge in the postseason. Going 5-for-31 with 13 strikeouts isn’t ideal. But he has been productive. He has walked seven times. He has hit two home runs. He hasn’t been a zero. Remember that tying two-run home run he hit off Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase in Game 3 of the ALCS? Not many people on Earth would’ve hit that pitch out. He reached base in four of five ALCS games. He’s due for a breakout.
Doolittle: A big series. He’s just too good for this (lack of hits) to continue. Getting to the Series in the first place should ease his mind, and those around him — Soto, Stanton, Torres — have been going so well that Judge needn’t feel any special burden. I think he’ll hit at least four home runs against the Dodgers.
Passan: Up. It’s always eventually going to be up with Judge. Even as he “struggles” this postseason, he has still been a near-average producer, with a wRC+ of 94. No, it’s not to Judge’s standards, but acting as if he has disappeared is just counterfactual. Much of the production came in the ALCS, which suggests that Judge could be ready to go on a jag. If he does, he’s the sort of player who can carry a team to a championship.
Which other player is most crucial to the Yankees’ chances in this series?
Castillo: Gerrit Cole. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner — he has that title for about another month — is the best starting pitcher in this series. He is lined up to start Game 1 on nine days’ rest. If all goes well, he’d take the ball in Game 5 and be able to help out in Game 7. He could have the opportunity to make a huge impact on this series. His postseason has been a mixed bag thus far: One dominant outing and two solid showings. Something like his performance in Game 4 of the ALDS — seven one-run innings on the road in a series-clinching win over the Royals — in Game 1 against the Dodgers on Friday could significantly boost Yankees’ chances to win the championship.
Doolittle: Luke Weaver. This entire postseason has been defined by the successes and lack thereof of ninth-inning relievers. Weaver has been terrific but not perfect as the Guardians took him deep a couple of times. The Yankees’ bullpen looks a lot more formidable if Aaron Boone can assume an on-point Weaver to take over at the end of games.
Passan: Weaver. The newly minted closer finally showed a crack after an almost-impermeable postseason during Game 3 of the division series, allowing Jhonkensy Noel blast to tie the game with two outs in the ninth. Prior to that, Weaver had been the most unhittable pitcher in baseball for a month, and he has the arsenal to back it up with a four-seamer, changeup and cutter that are all above-average pitches. But Boone has leaned on him heavily. If Weaver can muster the ability to regularly finish games as he has done for a majority of the postseason, the Yankees will feel much better in the most high-leverage situations.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Dodgers to the World Series?
Alden Gonzalez: Their offensive approach, which basically boils down to this: Ignore balls and be aggressive against pitches in your preferred area. It sounds a whole lot easier than it actually is, of course. And the Dodgers’ hitters were as good as any throughout the year at luring opposing pitchers into their desired nitro zones, a skillset they used expertly against Jose Quintana — the New York Mets left-hander who thrived all year at getting chase — during their 10-run onslaught in NLCS Game 4. The Dodgers’ pitching continues to be a concern, but their lineup — even with a hobbled Freddie Freeman — has the depth and talent to carry them through every October round. And when they’re stubborn in their zone, they can seem unbeatable.
Jesse Rogers: Let’s not overthink this: Shohei Ohtani impacts games in ways no other player can right now. Yes, the Dodgers have had some good pitching performances, but their bread-and-butter is their offense and it starts with Ohtahi. Take Game 4. The leadoff home run set the tone for the night, and that’s not just cliché talk. After putting the Dodgers up 1-0, the Mets pitched him so carefully that he walked the next three times and scored three more runs because of it. His damage (7-for-11, five walks) with men on base this postseason should not be glossed over. He’s the reason the Dodgers are here.
David Schoenfield: More than anything, the roster depth from No. 1 to No. 26. It seems just about everybody has stepped up at some point. Or let’s put it this way: That depth has allowed the Dodgers to overcome the injuries in the rotation as well as injuries to Freddie Freeman (who has just one run scored and one RBI in the postseason) and Miguel Rojas (who wasn’t on the roster for the NLCS). The bullpen saved the season with that the shutout in Game 4 against the Padres, Mookie Betts finally broke out of his multiyear postseason slump, Tommy Edman drove in 11 runs in the NLCS and Kiké Hernandez has continued his Mr. October persona after getting a chance to start when Rojas went down in the NLDS against the Padres.
Why will — or won’t — it continue against the Yankees?
Gonzalez: Because if there’s one team better than the Dodgers at not chasing outside the strike zone and being aggressive within it, it’s, you guessed it, the Yankees. And New York’s lineup seems exponentially more challenging to navigate with Gleyber Torres consistently getting on base from the leadoff spot and Giancarlo Stanton continually crushing big homers behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Unlike in the NLCS, for which they weren’t able to reset their rotation, the Dodgers will probably require only one bullpen game in the World Series. But it goes without saying that they’re nonetheless going to need their three-man staff of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to be effective. That was a tough task against the Mets. It will be exceedingly difficult against the Yankees.
Rogers: The short porch at Yankees Stadium will benefit Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman and others, but Dodgers pitching is trending toward being on fumes. Can Yamamoto give them a few more innings? Did Jack Flaherty hit a wall in his last start? Which direction is Walker Buehler trending in this October? There are just too many questions heading into another potentially long series. Additionally, the Dodgers have had success leaning on their bullpen so far, but asking for another round of covering about five innings per night could be asking too much. The Yankees are set up better on the mound for what could be a high-scoring series.
Schoenfield: It’s going to have to continue. They still have just three starters, and Jack Flaherty’s second outing against the Mets (eight runs and no strikeouts in three innings) doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for the World Series. After that game, Dave Roberts mentioned in regards to Freeman, “I do think his swing is not right. I’m certain it’s the ankle.” In other words, it’s hard to know what to expect from Freeman in the World Series. In the end, while the bullpen seems hot, Roberts will have to manage those innings carefully. Still, the Dodgers probably can’t keep relying so much on guys like Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernandez. They’ll need more Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith — and, of course, big results from Ohtani and Mookie Betts.
Shohei Ohtani has had mixed results in his first postseason. What should we expect from him in the World Series?
Gonzalez: One thing I don’t expect to see is a lot of strikes. Ohtani has drawn 11 walks in his first 11 postseason games and is seeing only 39.0% of pitches within the strike zone. Teams clearly prefer to make those batting behind Ohtani beat them. And given that the vast majority of the Yankees’ best arms are right-handed — all except Tim Hill, who’s technically below three other relievers in the pecking order — they’ll probably pitch Ohtani just as carefully as everybody else. If Mookie Betts stays hot, of course, that won’t be a problem. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has said that when Ohtani is right, he’s “stubborn in his zone” and drives pitches into the left- and right-center-field gaps. That approach has come and gone this month.
Rogers: Greatness. Yes, he has made a few outs when the bases were empty — so what? He’ll find the dimensions at Yankees stadium to his liking and already is beginning to reverse his trend of hitting only with runners on, as evidenced by his leadoff homer in Game 4 of the NLCS. And who knows, maybe we’ll see him on the mound. He’s nearly ready to face hitters — though the Dodgers might not want the first time to be in the World Series. Anything can happen in baseball, but Ohtani will show up in the box score one way or another. Bank on it.
Schoenfield: Ohtani has been fine. Through his 11 postseason games, he has three home runs, 10 RBIs, 11 walks and 12 runs – season-long paces of 44 home runs, 145 RBIs, 160 walks and 160 runs. I think our expectations were a little unrealistic given his absolutely ridiculous stretch to end the season, so his very good performance almost seems like a letdown. The only things he hasn’t done: steal any bases (he’s 0-for-1) and deliver a signature game to remember. I think we’ll get one of those games in the World Series.
Which other player is most crucial to the Dodgers’ chances in this series?
Gonzalez: Pick a starter. Any starter. I’ll go with Jack Flaherty. He’ll probably get Game 1 because he can come back on the traditional four days’ rest to pitch again in Game 5 (if Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts Game 1, the Dodgers would be forced to stage two bullpen days within the first five games because Yamamoto requires five days of rest). Flaherty pitched seven scoreless innings in Game 1 of the NLCS but got roughed up in a Game 5 start in which he threw with a diminished fastball. The Dodgers desperately need Flaherty to recapture the life of that pitch. It’s hard to see them winning a championship without him being effective.
Rogers: I’m going outside the box on this one: Yamamoto. He’s trending in the right direction, and the Dodgers desperately need some innings out of somebody on the starting staff, especially if Flaherty’s rough last outing is closer to who he’ll be going forward. He looked like he hit a wall, while Walker Buehler has been grinding through his starts for a while now. Meanwhile, Yamamoto threw 73 pitches in Game 4 of the NLCS, striking out eight Mets over 4⅓ innings. If he can add another 10 pitches to that this round, he’ll be as important as anyone on the mound for L.A.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Teoscar Hernandez. Given the state of the Dodgers’ pitching and the potential of the bullpen hitting the wall a little bit, they’re going to have to score runs. And with Freeman limited, it’s up to Hernandez to offer that big bat behind Ohtani and Betts. He didn’t get a hit the first five games of the NLCS. That can’t continue if the Dodgers are going to win.
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Tisha Thompson
Federal prosecutors recommended a 57-month prison sentence Thursday for Ippei Mizuhara, the former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, and released an audio recording in which they say he impersonates Ohtani in an attempt to wire money from Ohtani’s bank account.
In a separate court filing, Mizuhara’s attorney, Michael G. Freedman, said Mizuhara has suffered from a gambling addiction since he was a teenager and asked for an 18-month sentence.
Mizuhara was fired in March 2024 after an ESPN investigation uncovered he had sent millions in wire transfers from Ohtani’s account to an illegal bookmaker. He pleaded guilty to bank fraud and filing a false tax return in June, admitting that he stole nearly $17 million from Ohtani to pay off gambling debts to an illegal bookmaker. He is scheduled to be sentenced Feb. 6.
According to the prosecutors’ filing, Mizuhara called the bank and impersonated Ohtani on approximately 24 occasions in order to wire money from Ohtani’s account. In the recording, which prosecutors said was made Feb. 2, 2022, a bank employee asked Mizuhara to identify himself.
“Who am I speaking with?” the bank employee asked in the recording, which was first obtained by The Athletic.
“Shohei Ohtani,” Mizuhara replied.
Mizuhara told the bank employee that he could not log in to online banking. “I tried to make a wire transfer a couple of days ago. They told me that’s probably the reason, they transferred me to this number,” he said.
After Mizuhara recited a six-digit code she texted him for two-factor authentication, Mizuhara told her he needed to send $200,000 for a car loan.
“What is your relationship to the payee?” the agent asked.
“He’s my friend,” Mizuhara responded.
“Have you met your friend in person?” she asked.
“Yes, many times,” Mizuhara said.
“I just ask because we haven’t been able to verify the transaction,” the agent said before asking how Mizuhara received the wire information. Mizuhara told her he received it by email but later talked about it with the recipient in person.
“Will there be any future wires to your friend?” the agent asked.
“Possibly,” Mizuhara replied.
Prosecutors said the clip had been edited to redact the names of the bank and the person receiving the wires. ESPN reported in May that Mizuhara wired some of the money to the bank account of Ryan Boyajian, an associate of bookmaker Mathew Bowyer.
Prosecutors also recommended Mizuhara pay nearly $17 million in restitution to Ohtani as well as $1.1 million to the IRS.
In his filing, Freedman wrote that Mizuhara started gambling when he was 18 and visited casinos four to five times a week. At 22, he began playing online poker and betting on sports. While working for Ohtani at the Los Angeles Angels, Mizuhara’s gambling increased because of poker games hosted by other baseball players in hotel rooms, according to the filing. ESPN previously reported that Mizuhara met Bowyer at a poker game at the team hotel in San Diego in 2021.
Mizuhara placed about 19,000 bets with Bowyer over a two-year period and accumulated over $40 million in debt. Bowyer gave Mizuhara a startup credit of $20,000, Freedman wrote.
Freedman added that Mizuhara has been attending Gamblers Anonymous meetings three times a week.
Prosecutors wrote in a separate filing, however, that a gambling addiction “cannot fully explain defendant’s conduct because defendant used the stolen funds for numerous personal expenses that had nothing to do with gambling.”
“Ultimately, the government submits, the motivating factor behind defendant’s crimes was not a gambling addiction but rather greed,” prosecutors wrote.
In a letter also submitted to U.S. District Court Judge John W. Holcomb on Thursday, Mizuhara wrote that he felt like he was on call 24/7 and had almost no time off while working for Ohtani, who he first met while working as an interpreter for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.
“Usually when a Japanese baseball player makes the move to the United States, they would bring over multiple staff members to take care of various tasks such as a driver, trainer, chef, off the field interpreter/support member, etc. but I was the only person Shohei brought along so naturally I had to support him on most of the above mentioned tasks,” Mizuhara wrote.
The Angels, Ohtani’s first team in the U.S., initially paid Mizuhara $85,000 before increasing his salary to $250,000 in 2022, according to the prosecutors’ filing. When he moved to the Dodgers with Ohtani in 2024, his salary grew to $500,000. Ohtani also paid Mizuhara a separate salary and gave him a Porsche Cayenne, the filing states.
In his letter, Mizuhara wrote that Ohtani paid him roughly $2,500 a month from October to January and $125 to $130 a month from February to September. Mizuhara said he struggled to make ends meet because he had to live near Ohtani in California, pay for his wife’s travel between the U.S. and Japan, and rent accommodations while traveling with Ohtani to Japan in the offseason.
“All of these extra expenses were taking a huge toll on me and I was living paycheck to paycheck, I would have to borrow money from family and friends some months to make ends meet,” Mizuhara wrote.
Mizuhara added that his wife, Naomi, also helped support Ohtani. She cooked him meals, watched his dog and helped him with broken nails he suffered while pitching.
“She truly supported both Shohei and I to the best of her abilities throughout the years and she never complained through all of this as she knew my priority was to support Shohei to the best of my ability,” Mizuhara wrote.
Naomi told the judge in a separate letter that Mizuhara is her “only family” after recently losing her parents and other family members, as well as their family dog. Unable to obtain a green card until 2023, she described becoming “emotionally unstable” and developed hearing loss and alopecia areata due to stress.
“I deeply regret not being able to support him or notice his struggles during that time,” she wrote.
At the end of his letter, Mizuhara asked for mercy from the judge and apologized to Ohtani.
“Lastly, I truly admire Shohei as a baseball player and a human being and I was committed to devote my life so Shohei can be the best version of himself on the field,” Mizuhara wrote. “I want to say I am truly sorry for violating his trust in me.”
Sports
Questions on the NFL draft’s top-10 picks: What are the Titans’ early plans? Which teams need QBs?
There are just three more games in the 2024 NFL season, and then all eyes will turn to the offseason. And teams with top-10 picks in the 2025 draft — which begins on April 24 — will be studying the group of prospects closely and starting to make plans for their selections.
This draft class is highlighted by a battle between Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders for the QB1 spot, and it is expected to have more high-end defensive players — such as Penn State’s Abdul Carter — than we saw last April. The Tennessee Titans have the top pick for the first time since 2016 (when they traded it to the Los Angeles Rams), and they’ll control a lot of what happens in Round 1. But the rest of the top 10 offers intrigue, too.
We asked our NFL Nation reporters, who cover teams with top-10 picks, to answer one big question about the early selections. Are the Titans, Browns and Giants all leaning toward finding a new QB in the draft? Is Tom Brady going to help the Raiders in their own QB search? Will the Bears pick a defender for the first time since 2018? Let’s dive in.
Jump to a team:
TEN | CLE | NYG | NE | JAX
LV | NYJ | CAR | NO | CHI
After they hired new GM Mike Borgonzi, what do we know about the Titans’ early plans at No. 1?
Borgonzi played a significant role in the Chiefs’ decision to trade up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and he’ll have to strongly consider taking a quarterback here. Titans coach Brian Callahan will get a closer look at the top prospects during both the East-West Shrine and Senior Bowl weeks. He didn’t close the door on Will Levis returning next season, but it’s pretty clear the organization is still searching for a franchise QB.
“Well, we got one quarterback under contract [Levis],” Callahan said during his season-ending press conference. “The other two are free agents, and we’re in position to potentially draft a quarterback.”
Callahan has been through the No. 1 pick process before with the Bengals, who took Joe Burrow in 2020. President of football operations Chad Brinker told ESPN he’d like to have more than the two picks the Titans currently have in the top 100, though. Tennessee hasn’t said it’s open for business yet, but a trade out of the first pick could easily address the organization’s desire to add more draft picks. — Turron Davenport
Does Deshaun Watson reinjuring his right Achilles tendon mean the Browns will definitely go QB at No. 2, or are other options still in play?
The Browns were always going to search for quarterback options in free agency and the draft, even before Watson’s setback. But a quarterback at No. 2 isn’t a given.
Cleveland would have to love one of the top prospects, and general manager Andrew Berry has often preached a philosophy of sticking to his board and taking the best player available. He has also shown a propensity to trade back and accumulate additional picks, which is something he alluded to in his end-of-season news conference.
“With having the second pick in the draft, whether we select a player or use it to maximize in another way, it gives us an opportunity to really pivot if we need to,” Berry said. — Daniel Oyefusi
Are the Giants more likely to address their QB spot in the draft or free agency?
It may not be an either/or proposition. The Giants have made it their “No. 1 issue” this offseason to find their quarterback of the future, according to owner John Mara. Their plan entering this past season was to draft a quarterback if it didn’t work out with Daniel Jones. But the timing of it all following Jones’ release in November could dictate that the Giants address the position in both free agency and the draft.
Tommy DeVito will be their only quarterback under contract this offseason. They will likely need a strong contingency from free agency in March, just in case they can’t get a quarterback at the top of the draft. Remember, Mara made it clear the pressure is on to produce in 2025. — Jordan Raanan
Is this an obvious spot for one of the top offensive tackles in the class, or could the Patriots address other holes?
New coach Mike Vrabel acknowledged the offensive line as a top priority in his introductory news conference. “You look at the teams that are able to protect the quarterback and dictate the flow of the game offensively; making sure that up front we’re sound, we’re strong — whether that’s through free agency or the draft — that’s something that’s critical,” Vrabel said.
The Patriots have ranked last in the NFL in pass block win rate each of the past two seasons. But that doesn’t mean they will automatically pick an offensive tackle at No. 4. They need blue-chip players at other positions, such as receiver, defensive line and pass rusher. — Mike Reiss
What are the Jaguars’ biggest roster weaknesses headed into the offseason?
Everything has to do with pass defense. The safety play has been subpar and they likely won’t re-sign Andre Cisco. They need another cornerback opposite Tyson Campbell, and the pass rush — outside of defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker — was spotty this season.
The Jaguars were last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (257.4, the third-worst mark in franchise history), picked off only six passes and gave up 23 pass plays of 30 or more yards. Hines-Allen dipped from 17.5 sacks in 2023 to eight, though Walker became the second player in franchise history to record 10 or more sacks in consecutive seasons. Moving Arik Armstead back inside may boost the interior rush, but the Jaguars need another edge rusher and to improve in coverage. — Michael DiRocco
What are you hearing on how much Tom Brady could play a role in the Raiders’ QB search?
The Raiders, who added Brady as a minority owner, need a coach and general manager before making a choice on QB1. Still, Raiders owner Mark Davis said the seven-time Super Bowl champion would indeed be involved.
“Although Tom can’t play, I think he can help us select a quarterback in the future and potentially train him as well,” Davis said in October, when Brady’s ownership stake was approved.
Of course, that brings us to the prospect with whom Brady has already been linked — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. In fact, it was Davis who told Sanders at a Las Vegas Aces game on Oct. 5, “Who knows, you might be home right now.” — Paul Gutierrez
Outside of quarterback, what other needs could the Jets fill with their first-round pick?
Think defense. The Jets finished 23rd in defensive EPA, which was way down from third in 2023. They will need a cornerback to pair with Sauce Gardner, assuming they lose their second option D.J. Reed in free agency. And there has been some talent drain on the once-formidable defensive line, which could use more blue-chip talent in the room other than Quinnen Williams. Edge rusher isn’t a major need, assuming defensive end Jermaine Johnson returns to form after his right Achilles tendon injury, but it would be hard to pass on an elite prospect.
The overall drafting philosophy will be shaped by the new general manager and head coach. Scheme will play an important factor in these decisions. — Rich Cimini
What do we know about whether it’s defense all the way for Carolina at No. 8?
Carolina won’t be all-in on defense with nine picks, but the top selections should be heavy on that side of the ball. General manager Dan Morgan, a former Pro Bowl linebacker, took it personally that his team ranked last in total defense (404.5 yards allowed per game) and against the run (179.8 yards allowed per game). He kept defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, implying this was more of a personnel problem.
The offense is headed in the right direction with quarterback Bryce Young and other key players returning. So adding an edge rusher, safety help and a big run stopper will be the focus. Just don’t look for this to be a defensive sweep as it was in 2020, when Carolina became the first team in NFL history to use all of its seven draft picks on defense. It still needs an elite receiver and more depth at running back. — David Newton
With the Saints’ big needs and cap issues, is this looking like a best-player-available approach right now?
At $70.6 million over the cap in 2025 (per Roster Management System), the Saints are likely going to have to draft for need. But their biggest need is open to interpretation. They are looking for successors at defensive end and linebacker for 35-year-olds Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis, respectively. They also could use another wide receiver to slot alongside Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, as well as permanent fixes to the offensive line.
A quarterback might be on their mind, too, depending on the wants of the Saints’ next coach. But as general manager Mickey Loomis pointed out at his end-of-season news conference, they don’t have the luxury of a top pick to do that. And Derek Carr has two years remaining on his four-year, $150 million contract. — Katherine Terrell
The Bears haven’t used a first-round pick on defense since 2018. What are the chances that streak ends in 2025?
The Bears have major needs to address in the trenches, so it’s fair to say Chicago using its first-round selection on a pass rusher is at 50%.
When asked about top defensive end Montez Sweat‘s disappointing season (5.5 sacks), general manager Ryan Poles said adding more talent is the best way to defeat the number of double-teams and chips that Sweat receives. Creating more one-on-one matchups would allow Chicago’s pass rush win rate to improve from its 37% finish in 2024, which was a slight step up from the previous season but still ranked 24th in the NFL. — Courtney Cronin
Sports
Dodgers land another star? Jays do (or don’t) extend Vlad Jr.? Bold predictions for the rest of the MLB offseason
With Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Anthony Santander coming off the board recently, MLB free agency has entered the homestretch — but there are still plenty of big moves to come in the final month before spring training arrives.
Where will the top remaining free agents, including Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, land? Will we see more blockbuster trades? And will the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reach an extension to avoid the star hitting free agency after the 2025 season?
We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this action-packed winter will wrap up.
Free agency
Jorge Castillo: Pete Alonso will re-sign with the New York Mets.
Alonso, a beloved homegrown star in Queens, remains a free agent. The Mets, with money to burn, could still use another right-handed-hitting slugger. A reunion seems almost too obvious. Add the fact that both sides are open to a three-year deal with opt-outs, according to a source, and it’s a matter of only believing it won’t happen when Alonso signs on the dotted line to play elsewhere.
Yes, the Mets have recently started spending money elsewhere (Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter). Yes, they could slide Mark Vientos across the diamond and give the third baseman job to Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña. Yes, Alonso is a first baseman on the wrong side of 30 with defensive limitations and little value on the basepaths. But Alonso is one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball since debuting in 2019. He has proved he can thrive in New York City. Put him behind Juan Soto, which would give him more fastballs to devour, and Alonso will remain one of the most productive power hitters in the majors for the next three seasons.
The Mets have had a great winter, but the Dodgers have created a super team with the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres also fighting for National League supremacy. The competition is stiff. Maybe negotiations between the two sides have burned the bridge to a deal. But it wouldn’t take much to build another one and make it happen.
David Schoenfield: Alex Bregman to … the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Why should the Dodgers stop now? If Bregman can’t find the big deal he wants, the Dodgers might be a surprise fit. Max Muncy is a free agent after 2025 and prone to strikeouts. Hyeseong Kim‘s bat projects as more of a utility infielder than a starting second baseman. Bregman can shift between second and third in 2025 and then replace Muncy in 2026. Too much money even for the Dodgers? Not really. Between Muncy, Chris Taylor, Michael Conforto and Miguel Rojas, the Dodgers have $49.5 million coming off the books after this season (and the pitching staff is set for years).
Bradford Doolittle: Bregman will sign with the Detroit Tigers.
There are lots of reasons why this makes sense, with the exception being positional fit since Detroit added another infielder in Gleyber Torres. Nevertheless, the Tigers have the payroll space to add Bregman and his positional versatility gives the team a lot of leeway in how to use him for the duration of the contract. He could start at any of the infield spots, and Detroit could move players around Torres to make a number of configurations work. Bregman would be the perfect veteran presence for a young team at the outset of a new window of winning. His history with manager A.J. Hinch gives him a comfort zone. Bregman has to end up somewhere and this makes the most sense to me.
Trades
Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres will make a blockbuster deal.
It was less than four months ago that the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes in the NL Division Series, needing only a victory at home to eliminate L.A. once more. Since then, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has watched his hated rivals not only defeat arguably the most well-rounded team he has ever assembled but win the World Series and then proceed to sign practically every player they want — including Sasaki, the Japanese phenom Preller coveted most. As for Preller himself? January is almost over, and he has yet to add to his major league roster.
There’s no chance that continues. And because the free agent class has dwindled significantly and money remains tight in San Diego, look for Preller to swing a big trade before spring training — the type we have seen from him often. Holes remain in the Padres’ rotation and throughout their lineup. Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth can all be had, and the guess here is that at least one of those four will go. Preller has stood pat for far too long. It won’t continue.
Jesse Rogers: The Boston Red Sox will trade for Nolan Arenado.
After exhausting attempts to sign Bregman, the Red Sox pivot to Arenado as the St. Louis Cardinals start to exhibit a bit of desperation with the season approaching. The fit in St. Louis just isn’t right anymore and everyone knows it. The Cardinals aren’t concerned with money owed to Arenado, so they’re willing to pick up a portion of it because they want quality prospects in return. Boston can deliver that.
Eric Karabell: Arenado will be traded to the Seattle Mariners.
The Cardinals have made it clear they must move on from Arenado to install Nolan Gorman at third base. We heard rumors of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and other teams interested. We haven’t heard about the Mariners, but all they have done is sign utility man Donovan Solano. The Arenado of old might never return — at the plate, at least — but the Cardinals seem so desperate, watch them handle the bulk of his contract and leave Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto with little choice. Arenado is coming off one of his worst seasons, but this Mariners lineup could use even league average hitters at this point.
Vlad Jr.’s future in Toronto
Paul Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn down a $400 million extension with the Blue Jays.
Feb. 18. That is Toronto’s first full-squad workout, and more importantly, the self-imposed deadline for extension talks between Vlad Jr. and the organization.
Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year at an opportune time — he slashed .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which propelled him to a sixth-place American League MVP finish. The Blue Jays must pay up to retain their homegrown star — they’ll offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he’ll reject their overtures and chase free agency instead.
Kiley McDaniel: Toronto will reach an extension with Guerrero.
It’s obviously easier to predict something won’t happen — such as Vlad Jr. looking to test the market next winter or holding out for a better offer from Toronto — than predicting a deal being struck. That said, Toronto needs to make a big move, and after Shohei Ohtani, Soto and Sasaki weren’t that move, the heat is on.
Extending Vlad Jr. is the move the Jays can make as their headline move of the offseason. The longer they wait, the more likely it is that a team with a different economic reality jumps in next winter to top what Toronto can exclusively offer now. The price is a question — I’d think to start at Rafael Devers‘ 10-year, $313.5 million extension from two years ago and adjust for inflation. Regardless, it’s an AAV the Jays can stomach — and it’s a franchise move they need to make as soon as possible.
Off-the-field drama
Buster Olney: Players will start to complain about having to play in a minor league park.
Remember how last year the quality of the uniforms suddenly became a really big deal, and we started to hear a lot from players about that? Well, at some point in the next two months, the fact that the Athletics will be playing in a minor league park is going to become a thing. Players will soon be face-to-face with the reality that they’ll be playing in Sacramento — in a park with one-third the capacity of a stadium like Tropicana Field, with an average July temperature of 95 degrees — and the commentary will begin and roll all the way through the regular season. As with the uniforms: It’ll be a disgrace.
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