‘You’re doing nothing illegal’: How coaches find and use rule loopholes
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
During every walk-through before Oregon games, coach Dan Lanning and Ducks players review an important and specific set of plays, broadly and innocuously labeled: “College football situations.” Some plays stay the same and some are added.
Oregon staff members collect examples from around the football universe and watch the film of how the plays unfold. Then, Ducks players and coaches rehearse, hoping preparation will pay off but mindful that the right time might never come.
“The amount of different situations you work week to week that never really show up, whether it’s intentionally taking a safety or whatever that might be, you spend an ungodly amount of time on it,” Lanning told ESPN three days after the Ohio State game. “Then, you hope that you recognize it in the moment where you can have a chance to execute things.”
The recognition came in one of the most important moments of Oregon’s 32-31 win over Ohio State on Oct. 12. Ohio State had driven the ball to Oregon’s 43-yard line with 10 seconds left, but faced third-and-25. Realistically, the Buckeyes had time for two or maybe three plays. After an Oregon timeout, the Ducks came out with 12 defenders.
Despite Ohio State coach Ryan Day and others on the sideline pointing out the extra defender, the Buckeyes threw a pass to Jeremiah Smith that Oregon’s Jabbar Muhammad swatted away. Oregon was flagged for illegal substitution, but four seconds had elapsed. On the ensuing play, Ohio State quarterback Will Howard was forced to scramble and slid too late as the clock expired, giving Oregon a massive win.
“This is one obviously something we had worked on, so you can see the result.” @oregonfootball‘s Dan Lanning confirms that the Duck’s 12 men penalty vs Ohio State was on purpose 🧠 pic.twitter.com/Vs4mDtWs7S
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 15, 2024
A Power 4 assistant who saw the play texted Lanning: Be honest, did you do that on purpose?
“He sent me back a wink emoji,” the assistant said.
The Lanning loophole sparked national reaction and, four days later, was closed by a new NCAA rules interpretation on how to handle 12-man penalties at the end of each half. Under the new policy, Ohio State would have had the option to take the penalty and have the clock reset to the time of the snap. But the outcome of the game didn’t change.
The Oregon 12-man situation wasn’t the first time — nor will it be the last — when a team capitalized on a vulnerable part of the rule book. Coaches are always seeking situations where they can gain the upper hand at critical moments in games. Officials also must be on alert for intentional actions that can impact games.
“We all have stuff like that,” a Power 4 coach said. “You’re doing nothing illegal. You’re just taking the rule and saying, ‘OK, if we ever get put in that situation …’ You’ve got to be smart enough to do it. You have to have enough clarity to call it and do it and believe the guys are actually going to get it executed, and know that the referees are going to get it right. It’s the rule’s fault; it’s not the coach’s fault.
“If you tell me the speed limit’s 65 [miles an hour] and you’re not going to ticket me until 65, then I’m going to drive 64.”
Steve Shaw’s phone wouldn’t stop ringing in the hours after Oregon’s win over Ohio State. Everyone wanted to talk to Shaw, the national coordinator of football officials, about the Ducks’ 12-man penalty.
“What seemed apparent by Monday morning, there was a buzz going on in coaching circles,” Shaw told ESPN. “My guess is people were going to say, ‘Hey, great technique. Let’s put it in our arsenal.'”
Shaw had “no qualms” with the way the play was officiated on the field. Illegal substitution penalties happen somewhat regularly and are often a product of sideline chaos. If Oregon had sent out 12 defenders on consecutive plays, Shaw and other officiating sources who spoke to ESPN said an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty would have been called for an “unfair act.” A 15-yard penalty would have put Ohio State comfortably in field goal range.
The concern, one Shaw often hears in his role on the NCAA football rules committee, is that a penalty should never provide an advantage for the offending team. So there was urgency to step in and prevent the loophole from being exploited again.
“People say, ‘Y’all changed the rules,’ and we really didn’t,” Shaw said. “We really are basing it in the rules that we have today, but using it as an interpretation.”
The NCAA also had a precedent with a similar time-killing objective, but a different scheme. In a 2017 game featuring Cal and North Carolina, Cal led 35-24 with 17 seconds left and UNC at the Bears’ 12-yard line. As the Tar Heels looked to the end zone, Cal defenders intentionally pulled down UNC wide receivers after the snap. Penalty flags flew, but six seconds went off the clock.
On the ensuing snap, the Bears’ defenders did the same thing and five more seconds ticked away. UNC ended up scoring but no time remained and Cal had a 35-30 win.
“They didn’t put any more time on the clock, so we eventually ran out of time,” Larry Fedora, North Carolina’s coach at the time, told ESPN. “It was within the rules, because that’s the way the rules were set up at that time.”
Fedora, who had been involved with the football rules committee, immediately began communicating with officials about the sequence. Days later, the NCAA announced a rules interpretation that would allow officials to assess unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and reset the game clock following “intentional fouls.”
“You’re fouling purposely and you’re getting a big advantage,” Shaw said. “And because that’s an observable act, those were blatant holds, then we converted to unsportsmanlike conduct. In this [Oregon-Ohio State] situation, many times, teams put 12 on the field totally by accident. They don’t want to do it, but personnel gets goofed up or whatever. In season, it would be very difficult to create a new rule, but we’re really leveraging off that other [Cal-North Carolina] play, where the defense is creating a foul to give them a clock advantage.”
When Fedora watched the end of the Oregon-Ohio State game, his mind immediately went back to the 2017 game against Cal.
“They played within the rules,” Fedora said of Oregon. “They just took advantage of a loophole that not a lot of people would have been aware of. Some of the opportunities never come up, but when it does, are you going to be prepared? You’ve got to give Dan Lanning and his staff credit.”
As Bowling Green prepared to face Minnesota in the 2023 Quick Lane Bowl, Falcons coach Scot Loeffler heard from a coach at another school about a special teams play that would capitalize on a “legit loophole.”
The play called for the offense to switch from a traditional formation into a scrimmage-kick set — in this case, a punt formation. Rules prohibit defenses from placing a down lineman within the frame of the long snapper, to protect the snapper, who has his head down. A foul would result in a 5-yard penalty.
“This is brilliant,” Loeffler said to himself.
He checked with several “high-end [game] officials,” primarily to ensure that he could legally execute the play.
“They said it’s absolutely legal and the minute that you do it, if it’s executed, we’ll have to make a rule change,” Loeffler told ESPN. “Just listening to the voices of the people that I talked to, they wanted it to occur so they could change the rule, because it’s a loophole.”
Loeffler also informed the game officials, from the American Athletic Conference, of what he planned to do if the situation arose.
“It was dead silent,” Loeffler recalled. “They go, ‘We’ve got to call our supervisor.'”
The AAC officials came back and said if they saw the formation change, they would make a verbal command to Minnesota’s nose guard. Down 30-17 with 5:24 left and facing fourth-and-2 at its own 46-yard line, Bowling Green called a timeout.
The Falcons lined up for a tush-push quarterback sneak, but then shifted quarterback Camden Orth to the side and moved tight end Harold Fannin Jr. back to the punter position. Any snap would have triggered a penalty and a first down. Minnesota nose guard Kyler Baugh would never anticipate a punt formation because it made no sense for Bowling Green, given the game situation. But the official not only shouted toward Baugh but tapped him on the side, as did Gophers linebacker Cody Lindenberg. Only then did Baugh move, averting the penalty and forcing another Bowling Green timeout.
“They physically moved the nose guard into a 3-technique position after a verbal command, which is absolutely preposterous,” Loeffler said. “It’s the only time in college football or pro football that I’ve ever seen an official literally put his hands on the guy. Why are you lining up for a punt on a two-minute situation when you need to score? Why did you burn a timeout? Well, we should have had a free 5 [yards] with no time being used off the clock. It was the right [play] call, and they were just afraid to make the call, plain and simple.”
Despite his frustration, and a loophole that’s still open, Loeffler hopes teams are eventually prevented from shifting into punt formations.
“It’s a bad rule,” he said. “They need to clean that piece up.”
Special teams can provide the platform for loophole-seeking opportunities, as well as key changes. As a first-year head coach at Wisconsin in 2006, Bret Bielema found one, much to the ire of his Penn State counterpart Joe Paterno. Wisconsin scored a touchdown to go ahead 10-3 with 23 seconds left in the first half.
On the ensuing kickoff, Wisconsin intentionally had players run offside, easily thwarting Penn State’s chances for a return. Although the Badgers were penalized, nine seconds ticked off because of a new rule just introduced — and designed to shorten games — that started the clock when a ball is kicked, rather than when it’s touched in the field of play. Penn State accepted the penalty and, rather than taking over deep in its own end, had Wisconsin rekick. But the Badgers once again intentionally ran offside.
By the time Wisconsin lined up for a third kickoff, only four seconds remained. The Badgers executed a squib kick and the clock expired.
“Coach Paterno was beyond furious,” said Bielema, now the coach at Illinois. “I had a kickoff [coverage specialist], James Kamoku ask me, ‘Coach, how far offsides can I be?’ I said, ‘James, I don’t care if you catch the kick.’ So he took off, he was about 20 yards in front of the kick.”
Paterno laid into the officials and was so upset that he refused to do an on-air halftime interview. Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez, the longtime Badgers coach whom Bielema replaced, told ESPN at the time that Bielema capitalized on a “bad rule.”
“If Joe Paterno does that, everyone says, ‘It’s genius,'” Alvarez said. “There are rules. Good coaches take advantage of them.”
When the rules committee met after the season, it reinstated the kickoff timing policy for the clock to start after the kick is touched.
“They didn’t have a choice,” Bielema said.
The NCAA sends out rule interpretation bulletins somewhat regularly, Shaw said, but rarely do they receive widespread attention like after the Oregon-Ohio State game. Early in the 2021 ACC championship game, Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett had college football buzzing when he faked a slide, only to freeze Wake Forest defenders, and then sprinted for a 58-yard touchdown.
Days later, a rules memo stated that any play where a ball carrier “begins, simulates, or fakes a feet-first slide” should be immediately whistled dead. Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson thought Pickett genuinely noticed Demon Deacons defenders easing up on the play and ended his slide, while the Oregon 12-man penalty seemingly had more intent behind it.
KENNY PICKETT FAKED THE SLIDE AND RAN 58 YARDS FOR THE TD 😱 pic.twitter.com/EypNNJZYHE
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 5, 2021
“The one is a kid reacting in the moment, the other is a head coach making a strategic move to help his team win,” Clawson said. “But I’m glad they closed the loophole, and they closed the loophole on the fake slide. Any time the defense commits a penalty with the intention of making time go off the clock to hurt the offense, I think they have to look at all those fouls.”
Clawson and others highlighted a distinction between plays that are simply unusual and ones designed to target rule loopholes. When coaches meet with officials before every game, they often alert the crew to specific trick plays or exotic formations and shifts.
“You make sure that they’re going to view that as a legal strategic maneuver before you do it,” Clawson said.
Oregon didn’t have the same incentive to tip off the Big Ten crew before the Ohio State game, as its intent would have been revealed. Coaches who watched the play noted that Oregon players were pointing to the sideline and had a player run off and back on, to simulate confusion. Bielema thought the play likely would only be executed correctly after a timeout.
There also was some inherent risk for Oregon to absorb the penalty, which moved the ball inside its 40-yard line.
“There’s a real fine line there with an ability for a kicker to go out and make that kick,” Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea said.
Behind the scenes, teams will keep practicing nuanced situations, hoping for the right time to call them. A coach said his team regularly practices a field goal timing scenario that capitalizes on the time it takes for officials to position themselves, but has only used the play twice in a decade.
Vanderbilt has “teach the game” portions of its Friday practices where it reviews situations like Oregon-Ohio State and others to do with penalties, timing, substitution patterns and end of halves. Bielema said he’s “always looking for little things.”
“Sometimes they come up, sometimes they don’t,” Lea said, “but you always want to be prepared, because that’s hopefully the difference in the game.”
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Tisha Thompson
Federal prosecutors recommended a 57-month prison sentence Thursday for Ippei Mizuhara, the former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, and released an audio recording in which they say he impersonates Ohtani in an attempt to wire money from Ohtani’s bank account.
In a separate court filing, Mizuhara’s attorney, Michael G. Freedman, said Mizuhara has suffered from a gambling addiction since he was a teenager and asked for an 18-month sentence.
Mizuhara was fired in March 2024 after an ESPN investigation uncovered he had sent millions in wire transfers from Ohtani’s account to an illegal bookmaker. He pleaded guilty to bank fraud and filing a false tax return in June, admitting that he stole nearly $17 million from Ohtani to pay off gambling debts to an illegal bookmaker. He is scheduled to be sentenced Feb. 6.
According to the prosecutors’ filing, Mizuhara called the bank and impersonated Ohtani on approximately 24 occasions in order to wire money from Ohtani’s account. In the recording, which prosecutors said was made Feb. 2, 2022, a bank employee asked Mizuhara to identify himself.
“Who am I speaking with?” the bank employee asked in the recording, which was first obtained by The Athletic.
“Shohei Ohtani,” Mizuhara replied.
Mizuhara told the bank employee that he could not log in to online banking. “I tried to make a wire transfer a couple of days ago. They told me that’s probably the reason, they transferred me to this number,” he said.
After Mizuhara recited a six-digit code she texted him for two-factor authentication, Mizuhara told her he needed to send $200,000 for a car loan.
“What is your relationship to the payee?” the agent asked.
“He’s my friend,” Mizuhara responded.
“Have you met your friend in person?” she asked.
“Yes, many times,” Mizuhara said.
“I just ask because we haven’t been able to verify the transaction,” the agent said before asking how Mizuhara received the wire information. Mizuhara told her he received it by email but later talked about it with the recipient in person.
“Will there be any future wires to your friend?” the agent asked.
“Possibly,” Mizuhara replied.
Prosecutors said the clip had been edited to redact the names of the bank and the person receiving the wires. ESPN reported in May that Mizuhara wired some of the money to the bank account of Ryan Boyajian, an associate of bookmaker Mathew Bowyer.
Prosecutors also recommended Mizuhara pay nearly $17 million in restitution to Ohtani as well as $1.1 million to the IRS.
In his filing, Freedman wrote that Mizuhara started gambling when he was 18 and visited casinos four to five times a week. At 22, he began playing online poker and betting on sports. While working for Ohtani at the Los Angeles Angels, Mizuhara’s gambling increased because of poker games hosted by other baseball players in hotel rooms, according to the filing. ESPN previously reported that Mizuhara met Bowyer at a poker game at the team hotel in San Diego in 2021.
Mizuhara placed about 19,000 bets with Bowyer over a two-year period and accumulated over $40 million in debt. Bowyer gave Mizuhara a startup credit of $20,000, Freedman wrote.
Freedman added that Mizuhara has been attending Gamblers Anonymous meetings three times a week.
Prosecutors wrote in a separate filing, however, that a gambling addiction “cannot fully explain defendant’s conduct because defendant used the stolen funds for numerous personal expenses that had nothing to do with gambling.”
“Ultimately, the government submits, the motivating factor behind defendant’s crimes was not a gambling addiction but rather greed,” prosecutors wrote.
In a letter also submitted to U.S. District Court Judge John W. Holcomb on Thursday, Mizuhara wrote that he felt like he was on call 24/7 and had almost no time off while working for Ohtani, who he first met while working as an interpreter for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.
“Usually when a Japanese baseball player makes the move to the United States, they would bring over multiple staff members to take care of various tasks such as a driver, trainer, chef, off the field interpreter/support member, etc. but I was the only person Shohei brought along so naturally I had to support him on most of the above mentioned tasks,” Mizuhara wrote.
The Angels, Ohtani’s first team in the U.S., initially paid Mizuhara $85,000 before increasing his salary to $250,000 in 2022, according to the prosecutors’ filing. When he moved to the Dodgers with Ohtani in 2024, his salary grew to $500,000. Ohtani also paid Mizuhara a separate salary and gave him a Porsche Cayenne, the filing states.
In his letter, Mizuhara wrote that Ohtani paid him roughly $2,500 a month from October to January and $125 to $130 a month from February to September. Mizuhara said he struggled to make ends meet because he had to live near Ohtani in California, pay for his wife’s travel between the U.S. and Japan, and rent accommodations while traveling with Ohtani to Japan in the offseason.
“All of these extra expenses were taking a huge toll on me and I was living paycheck to paycheck, I would have to borrow money from family and friends some months to make ends meet,” Mizuhara wrote.
Mizuhara added that his wife, Naomi, also helped support Ohtani. She cooked him meals, watched his dog and helped him with broken nails he suffered while pitching.
“She truly supported both Shohei and I to the best of her abilities throughout the years and she never complained through all of this as she knew my priority was to support Shohei to the best of my ability,” Mizuhara wrote.
Naomi told the judge in a separate letter that Mizuhara is her “only family” after recently losing her parents and other family members, as well as their family dog. Unable to obtain a green card until 2023, she described becoming “emotionally unstable” and developed hearing loss and alopecia areata due to stress.
“I deeply regret not being able to support him or notice his struggles during that time,” she wrote.
At the end of his letter, Mizuhara asked for mercy from the judge and apologized to Ohtani.
“Lastly, I truly admire Shohei as a baseball player and a human being and I was committed to devote my life so Shohei can be the best version of himself on the field,” Mizuhara wrote. “I want to say I am truly sorry for violating his trust in me.”
Sports
Questions on the NFL draft’s top-10 picks: What are the Titans’ early plans? Which teams need QBs?
There are just three more games in the 2024 NFL season, and then all eyes will turn to the offseason. And teams with top-10 picks in the 2025 draft — which begins on April 24 — will be studying the group of prospects closely and starting to make plans for their selections.
This draft class is highlighted by a battle between Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders for the QB1 spot, and it is expected to have more high-end defensive players — such as Penn State’s Abdul Carter — than we saw last April. The Tennessee Titans have the top pick for the first time since 2016 (when they traded it to the Los Angeles Rams), and they’ll control a lot of what happens in Round 1. But the rest of the top 10 offers intrigue, too.
We asked our NFL Nation reporters, who cover teams with top-10 picks, to answer one big question about the early selections. Are the Titans, Browns and Giants all leaning toward finding a new QB in the draft? Is Tom Brady going to help the Raiders in their own QB search? Will the Bears pick a defender for the first time since 2018? Let’s dive in.
Jump to a team:
TEN | CLE | NYG | NE | JAX
LV | NYJ | CAR | NO | CHI
After they hired new GM Mike Borgonzi, what do we know about the Titans’ early plans at No. 1?
Borgonzi played a significant role in the Chiefs’ decision to trade up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and he’ll have to strongly consider taking a quarterback here. Titans coach Brian Callahan will get a closer look at the top prospects during both the East-West Shrine and Senior Bowl weeks. He didn’t close the door on Will Levis returning next season, but it’s pretty clear the organization is still searching for a franchise QB.
“Well, we got one quarterback under contract [Levis],” Callahan said during his season-ending press conference. “The other two are free agents, and we’re in position to potentially draft a quarterback.”
Callahan has been through the No. 1 pick process before with the Bengals, who took Joe Burrow in 2020. President of football operations Chad Brinker told ESPN he’d like to have more than the two picks the Titans currently have in the top 100, though. Tennessee hasn’t said it’s open for business yet, but a trade out of the first pick could easily address the organization’s desire to add more draft picks. — Turron Davenport
Does Deshaun Watson reinjuring his right Achilles tendon mean the Browns will definitely go QB at No. 2, or are other options still in play?
The Browns were always going to search for quarterback options in free agency and the draft, even before Watson’s setback. But a quarterback at No. 2 isn’t a given.
Cleveland would have to love one of the top prospects, and general manager Andrew Berry has often preached a philosophy of sticking to his board and taking the best player available. He has also shown a propensity to trade back and accumulate additional picks, which is something he alluded to in his end-of-season news conference.
“With having the second pick in the draft, whether we select a player or use it to maximize in another way, it gives us an opportunity to really pivot if we need to,” Berry said. — Daniel Oyefusi
Are the Giants more likely to address their QB spot in the draft or free agency?
It may not be an either/or proposition. The Giants have made it their “No. 1 issue” this offseason to find their quarterback of the future, according to owner John Mara. Their plan entering this past season was to draft a quarterback if it didn’t work out with Daniel Jones. But the timing of it all following Jones’ release in November could dictate that the Giants address the position in both free agency and the draft.
Tommy DeVito will be their only quarterback under contract this offseason. They will likely need a strong contingency from free agency in March, just in case they can’t get a quarterback at the top of the draft. Remember, Mara made it clear the pressure is on to produce in 2025. — Jordan Raanan
Is this an obvious spot for one of the top offensive tackles in the class, or could the Patriots address other holes?
New coach Mike Vrabel acknowledged the offensive line as a top priority in his introductory news conference. “You look at the teams that are able to protect the quarterback and dictate the flow of the game offensively; making sure that up front we’re sound, we’re strong — whether that’s through free agency or the draft — that’s something that’s critical,” Vrabel said.
The Patriots have ranked last in the NFL in pass block win rate each of the past two seasons. But that doesn’t mean they will automatically pick an offensive tackle at No. 4. They need blue-chip players at other positions, such as receiver, defensive line and pass rusher. — Mike Reiss
What are the Jaguars’ biggest roster weaknesses headed into the offseason?
Everything has to do with pass defense. The safety play has been subpar and they likely won’t re-sign Andre Cisco. They need another cornerback opposite Tyson Campbell, and the pass rush — outside of defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker — was spotty this season.
The Jaguars were last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (257.4, the third-worst mark in franchise history), picked off only six passes and gave up 23 pass plays of 30 or more yards. Hines-Allen dipped from 17.5 sacks in 2023 to eight, though Walker became the second player in franchise history to record 10 or more sacks in consecutive seasons. Moving Arik Armstead back inside may boost the interior rush, but the Jaguars need another edge rusher and to improve in coverage. — Michael DiRocco
What are you hearing on how much Tom Brady could play a role in the Raiders’ QB search?
The Raiders, who added Brady as a minority owner, need a coach and general manager before making a choice on QB1. Still, Raiders owner Mark Davis said the seven-time Super Bowl champion would indeed be involved.
“Although Tom can’t play, I think he can help us select a quarterback in the future and potentially train him as well,” Davis said in October, when Brady’s ownership stake was approved.
Of course, that brings us to the prospect with whom Brady has already been linked — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. In fact, it was Davis who told Sanders at a Las Vegas Aces game on Oct. 5, “Who knows, you might be home right now.” — Paul Gutierrez
Outside of quarterback, what other needs could the Jets fill with their first-round pick?
Think defense. The Jets finished 23rd in defensive EPA, which was way down from third in 2023. They will need a cornerback to pair with Sauce Gardner, assuming they lose their second option D.J. Reed in free agency. And there has been some talent drain on the once-formidable defensive line, which could use more blue-chip talent in the room other than Quinnen Williams. Edge rusher isn’t a major need, assuming defensive end Jermaine Johnson returns to form after his right Achilles tendon injury, but it would be hard to pass on an elite prospect.
The overall drafting philosophy will be shaped by the new general manager and head coach. Scheme will play an important factor in these decisions. — Rich Cimini
What do we know about whether it’s defense all the way for Carolina at No. 8?
Carolina won’t be all-in on defense with nine picks, but the top selections should be heavy on that side of the ball. General manager Dan Morgan, a former Pro Bowl linebacker, took it personally that his team ranked last in total defense (404.5 yards allowed per game) and against the run (179.8 yards allowed per game). He kept defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, implying this was more of a personnel problem.
The offense is headed in the right direction with quarterback Bryce Young and other key players returning. So adding an edge rusher, safety help and a big run stopper will be the focus. Just don’t look for this to be a defensive sweep as it was in 2020, when Carolina became the first team in NFL history to use all of its seven draft picks on defense. It still needs an elite receiver and more depth at running back. — David Newton
With the Saints’ big needs and cap issues, is this looking like a best-player-available approach right now?
At $70.6 million over the cap in 2025 (per Roster Management System), the Saints are likely going to have to draft for need. But their biggest need is open to interpretation. They are looking for successors at defensive end and linebacker for 35-year-olds Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis, respectively. They also could use another wide receiver to slot alongside Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, as well as permanent fixes to the offensive line.
A quarterback might be on their mind, too, depending on the wants of the Saints’ next coach. But as general manager Mickey Loomis pointed out at his end-of-season news conference, they don’t have the luxury of a top pick to do that. And Derek Carr has two years remaining on his four-year, $150 million contract. — Katherine Terrell
The Bears haven’t used a first-round pick on defense since 2018. What are the chances that streak ends in 2025?
The Bears have major needs to address in the trenches, so it’s fair to say Chicago using its first-round selection on a pass rusher is at 50%.
When asked about top defensive end Montez Sweat‘s disappointing season (5.5 sacks), general manager Ryan Poles said adding more talent is the best way to defeat the number of double-teams and chips that Sweat receives. Creating more one-on-one matchups would allow Chicago’s pass rush win rate to improve from its 37% finish in 2024, which was a slight step up from the previous season but still ranked 24th in the NFL. — Courtney Cronin
Sports
Dodgers land another star? Jays do (or don’t) extend Vlad Jr.? Bold predictions for the rest of the MLB offseason
With Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Anthony Santander coming off the board recently, MLB free agency has entered the homestretch — but there are still plenty of big moves to come in the final month before spring training arrives.
Where will the top remaining free agents, including Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, land? Will we see more blockbuster trades? And will the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reach an extension to avoid the star hitting free agency after the 2025 season?
We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this action-packed winter will wrap up.
Free agency
Jorge Castillo: Pete Alonso will re-sign with the New York Mets.
Alonso, a beloved homegrown star in Queens, remains a free agent. The Mets, with money to burn, could still use another right-handed-hitting slugger. A reunion seems almost too obvious. Add the fact that both sides are open to a three-year deal with opt-outs, according to a source, and it’s a matter of only believing it won’t happen when Alonso signs on the dotted line to play elsewhere.
Yes, the Mets have recently started spending money elsewhere (Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter). Yes, they could slide Mark Vientos across the diamond and give the third baseman job to Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña. Yes, Alonso is a first baseman on the wrong side of 30 with defensive limitations and little value on the basepaths. But Alonso is one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball since debuting in 2019. He has proved he can thrive in New York City. Put him behind Juan Soto, which would give him more fastballs to devour, and Alonso will remain one of the most productive power hitters in the majors for the next three seasons.
The Mets have had a great winter, but the Dodgers have created a super team with the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres also fighting for National League supremacy. The competition is stiff. Maybe negotiations between the two sides have burned the bridge to a deal. But it wouldn’t take much to build another one and make it happen.
David Schoenfield: Alex Bregman to … the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Why should the Dodgers stop now? If Bregman can’t find the big deal he wants, the Dodgers might be a surprise fit. Max Muncy is a free agent after 2025 and prone to strikeouts. Hyeseong Kim‘s bat projects as more of a utility infielder than a starting second baseman. Bregman can shift between second and third in 2025 and then replace Muncy in 2026. Too much money even for the Dodgers? Not really. Between Muncy, Chris Taylor, Michael Conforto and Miguel Rojas, the Dodgers have $49.5 million coming off the books after this season (and the pitching staff is set for years).
Bradford Doolittle: Bregman will sign with the Detroit Tigers.
There are lots of reasons why this makes sense, with the exception being positional fit since Detroit added another infielder in Gleyber Torres. Nevertheless, the Tigers have the payroll space to add Bregman and his positional versatility gives the team a lot of leeway in how to use him for the duration of the contract. He could start at any of the infield spots, and Detroit could move players around Torres to make a number of configurations work. Bregman would be the perfect veteran presence for a young team at the outset of a new window of winning. His history with manager A.J. Hinch gives him a comfort zone. Bregman has to end up somewhere and this makes the most sense to me.
Trades
Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres will make a blockbuster deal.
It was less than four months ago that the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes in the NL Division Series, needing only a victory at home to eliminate L.A. once more. Since then, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has watched his hated rivals not only defeat arguably the most well-rounded team he has ever assembled but win the World Series and then proceed to sign practically every player they want — including Sasaki, the Japanese phenom Preller coveted most. As for Preller himself? January is almost over, and he has yet to add to his major league roster.
There’s no chance that continues. And because the free agent class has dwindled significantly and money remains tight in San Diego, look for Preller to swing a big trade before spring training — the type we have seen from him often. Holes remain in the Padres’ rotation and throughout their lineup. Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth can all be had, and the guess here is that at least one of those four will go. Preller has stood pat for far too long. It won’t continue.
Jesse Rogers: The Boston Red Sox will trade for Nolan Arenado.
After exhausting attempts to sign Bregman, the Red Sox pivot to Arenado as the St. Louis Cardinals start to exhibit a bit of desperation with the season approaching. The fit in St. Louis just isn’t right anymore and everyone knows it. The Cardinals aren’t concerned with money owed to Arenado, so they’re willing to pick up a portion of it because they want quality prospects in return. Boston can deliver that.
Eric Karabell: Arenado will be traded to the Seattle Mariners.
The Cardinals have made it clear they must move on from Arenado to install Nolan Gorman at third base. We heard rumors of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and other teams interested. We haven’t heard about the Mariners, but all they have done is sign utility man Donovan Solano. The Arenado of old might never return — at the plate, at least — but the Cardinals seem so desperate, watch them handle the bulk of his contract and leave Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto with little choice. Arenado is coming off one of his worst seasons, but this Mariners lineup could use even league average hitters at this point.
Vlad Jr.’s future in Toronto
Paul Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn down a $400 million extension with the Blue Jays.
Feb. 18. That is Toronto’s first full-squad workout, and more importantly, the self-imposed deadline for extension talks between Vlad Jr. and the organization.
Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year at an opportune time — he slashed .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which propelled him to a sixth-place American League MVP finish. The Blue Jays must pay up to retain their homegrown star — they’ll offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he’ll reject their overtures and chase free agency instead.
Kiley McDaniel: Toronto will reach an extension with Guerrero.
It’s obviously easier to predict something won’t happen — such as Vlad Jr. looking to test the market next winter or holding out for a better offer from Toronto — than predicting a deal being struck. That said, Toronto needs to make a big move, and after Shohei Ohtani, Soto and Sasaki weren’t that move, the heat is on.
Extending Vlad Jr. is the move the Jays can make as their headline move of the offseason. The longer they wait, the more likely it is that a team with a different economic reality jumps in next winter to top what Toronto can exclusively offer now. The price is a question — I’d think to start at Rafael Devers‘ 10-year, $313.5 million extension from two years ago and adjust for inflation. Regardless, it’s an AAV the Jays can stomach — and it’s a franchise move they need to make as soon as possible.
Off-the-field drama
Buster Olney: Players will start to complain about having to play in a minor league park.
Remember how last year the quality of the uniforms suddenly became a really big deal, and we started to hear a lot from players about that? Well, at some point in the next two months, the fact that the Athletics will be playing in a minor league park is going to become a thing. Players will soon be face-to-face with the reality that they’ll be playing in Sacramento — in a park with one-third the capacity of a stadium like Tropicana Field, with an average July temperature of 95 degrees — and the commentary will begin and roll all the way through the regular season. As with the uniforms: It’ll be a disgrace.
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