Personality, passion, performance: Shohei Ohtani unlocking his best self in October
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
LOS ANGELES — THE MOMENT met Shohei Ohtani on Friday night, as it so often has this month — eighth inning, down a run, Game 1 of a much-hyped World Series teeming with intensity. Ohtani scorched a line drive off the right-field fence, popped up from a slide at second base and yelled toward his teammates. Realizing the baseball had scooted away, he sprinted to third, placing the tying run within 90 feet. Ohtani roared again and implored a sold-out Dodger Stadium crowd to join him. A pitching change followed, at which point Ohtani returned to his dugout to hug and high-five as many teammates as he could before resuming the task at hand.
So much was still uncertain at that point. Ohtani hadn’t yet motored home on Mookie Betts‘ sac fly; Freddie Freeman hadn’t yet delivered the walk-off grand slam in the 10th, sealing the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ 6-3 victory over the New York Yankees. And yet, to Ohtani, it didn’t seem to matter. He was once again embracing his moment — the type of moment he’d spent his whole life longing for.
“Simply put,” Ohtani said recently, “I’m grateful to be in this environment.”
Ohtani came to the United States seven years ago with a desire to compete for championships and become a legendary figure within his sport, two pursuits intrinsically linked. He then spent his first six seasons in Anaheim, California, without playing so much as a September game that mattered. Near the end of his run as an Angel, a video surfaced of Ohtani seemingly on the verge of tears after a heart-wrenching loss on Aug. 3, 2023. Losing pained him in ways he would not let on publicly, but many of those around him noticed.
Winning has seemed to unlock the best version of Ohtani. In the run-up to this postseason and now during it, Ohtani’s performance has often elevated, but so has his emotion — to a pure, unadulterated joy that has transcended language, diverged from his stoic persona and made him seem, well, human.
“He’s a regular dude, just like you and me,” Betts said. “He just has a superpower.”
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL commissioner Rob Manfred describes Ohtani as having a “regal bearing.” The cameras are always on him, but his demeanor remains positive. His singular popularity is a product of his ability to take on a two-way role and his propensity for shattering records, but also, Manfred said, “There’s a charisma, an appeal about him that draws people.”
October has brought out something else: swagger. Ohtani is sauntering after home runs, booing himself in opposing ballparks, screaming into the ears of unsuspecting teammates, quipping to questions about his nervousness and yelling at umpires who interrupt balls in play, revealing an authenticity that has often been elusive.
It’s an added layer MLB hopes to capitalize on.
“The competitiveness, the desire to win, beyond individual accolades, really has come out,” Manfred said in a phone conversation. “I think it’s added a dimension to him that’s really appealing.”
MLB displayed 113 pieces of outdoor advertising in Tokyo ahead of the playoffs. Ohtani’s first postseason series then triggered record-setting viewership in his home country. Game 5 of the National League Division Series — pitting Yu Darvish against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the first ever postseason matchup of Japanese-born starting pitchers — became the most-watched MLB postseason game ever in Japan, with 12.9 million viewers. Another 7.5 million watched domestically, according to data provided by MLB. Game 1 of the NL Championship Series drew 20.6 million average viewers in the U.S. and Japan combined, with Ohtani’s home country providing 12.1 million.
Japan viewership numbers for the remainder of the NLCS are not yet available because the games aired on cable, rather than over the air. But it was the most watched LCS round in seven years by U.S. averages alone. Ohtani — the subject of an oft-used Fox graphic that showed when he might take his turn again and was memed all over X — drove that.
Manfred sees this World Series — featuring not just Ohtani, but Betts, Freeman, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole playing on two of the sport’s most prominent franchises — as “an opportunity for us to grow both nationally and internationally.” His hope is that its star power will transcend regions.
“I think the most important effort we have going right now is to try to make our game more national,” Manfred said. “The way our game has been covered, particularly on the broadcast side, it’s regional sports networks — local, local, local. And I think the combination of two iconic franchises, great players … provide us with an opportunity to break out of this, ‘They’re interested in New York,’ and, ‘They’re interested in L.A.’ and getting to a mode where they’re interested all across the United States.”
THE DODGERS SIGNED Ohtani with the thought that coupling his fame with their brand would be a boon for their business, the type that might make a $700 million guarantee seem practical. But their projections, CEO Stan Kasten said, “turned out to be woefully conservative.” The Dodgers have announced sponsorship agreements with 11 different Japanese companies this year. Two Ohtani bobblehead giveaways prompted fans to line up outside their ballpark up to 10 hours before the first pitch. Japanese-guided tours through Dodger Stadium — a twice-a-day, four-day-a-week addition this season — never relented.
They underestimated all those elements. They couldn’t fathom another.
“One thing that helped us that I couldn’t have predicted,” Kasten said, “was the wall that came down once we got through that first day or two in Korea.”
What began with ESPN and The Los Angeles Times inquiring about wire transfers sent from Ohtani’s bank account to an offshore bookmaker while the Dodgers opened their season in South Korea in March ended with his longtime interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, admitting to stealing nearly $17 million to pay off a string of gambling debts. In the wake of firing Mizuhara, who has since pleaded guilty to bank- and tax-fraud charges, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts talked about how removing such an ever-present “buffer” would open up the lines of communication with Ohtani and perhaps help him become more engaging.
The next seven months bore that out.
“We didn’t quite get to experience and take advantage of the personality that he was, the fun-loving character that he was — that didn’t come out until after we got through that awful first day in Korea,” Kasten said. “Once that came out, and once we understood better who he is, and he understood better who we are, and that we were all pulling for each other, I think that just opened him up.”
Early on, though, there were growing pains.
They manifested in higher leverage. Ohtani finished April with seven hits in 38 at-bats with runners in scoring position. And despite posting mythical numbers, his performance in run-scoring situations noticeably paled in comparison over the season’s first five months. By the end of August, Ohtani’s OPS with runners in scoring position, .682, was more than 300 points lower than it was overall.
“In the beginning of the season, I think I had a very strong desire to fit in with the team as soon as possible,” Ohtani, speaking through an interpreter, explained. “And I think that was kind of leaking into my at-bats. As the season progressed and as we got into the second half, I felt like I had more of my at-bats.”
AS THE STAKES ratcheted up in a late-season division race, those who share a clubhouse with Ohtani believe the approach of playoff baseball enlivened him.
On the night he clinched his first postseason appearance and became the charter member of the 50/50 club, Ohtani put together one of history’s greatest single-game performances, going 6-for-6 with 3 home runs, 10 RBIs and 2 stolen bases in Miami on Sept. 19. It marked the beginning of a 10-game stretch in which he went 12-for-14 with runners in scoring position.
Ohtani finished his regular season four batting-average points shy of a Triple Crown, batting .310 with 54 homers, 130 RBIs and 59 stolen bases, all but ensuring the first-ever MVP for a full-time designated hitter. And once October came around, any concerns about how Ohtani might handle the pressure of his first postseason quickly ceased.
“It never feels like there’s no moment too big, no moment too small,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said. “When he steps in the box, you feel like he’s going to do something special. More often than not, he doesn’t disappoint. He’s incredible.”
Ohtani’s second postseason at-bat, early in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, shook Dodger Stadium. His 31st, late in Game 3 of the following round, left a packed Citi Field stunned. The time between those two instances — a heat-seeking missile over the right-center-field fence in Los Angeles and a towering drive that sailed way above the right-field foul pole in New York — provided a bizarre juxtaposition.
Ohtani had spent much of the summer fending off concerns over his ability to produce at a game’s most important moments. Now the opposite was occurring. The latter home run made him the first expansion-era player to compile as many as 17 hits in a 20-at-bat stretch with runners in scoring position. By that point, remarkably, he was also hitless in 22 postseason at-bats with nobody on base.
Ohtani continually stated that his approach — designed to exert as much damage as possible, regardless of the situation — had not wavered. At one point he chalked it up to an anomaly. But Freeman gave him grief nonetheless. And so, the following afternoon, in Game 4 of the NL Championship Series, Ohtani hit a leadoff home run — naturally, with nobody on base — and pointed in Freeman’s direction before beginning his trot around the bases.
Some of the Dodgers’ players howled.
“He’s got a lot bigger personality than what any of us expected,” Dodgers utility man Enrique Hernández said. “He likes to joke around a lot. He likes to have a good time. He has this childish energy to him, which is great. I think that allows him to disconnect from the fact that there’s this huge pressure on his shoulders because that’s what comes with not only being the greatest player in the game but potentially, possibly, the best ever.”
Throughout this week, in the vacant space between a pennant-clinching victory and the start of a highly anticipated World Series, clips of Ohtani in revelry have continually populated digital platforms. And whether it’s getting doused in champagne by Jack Flaherty, trading beer pours with Roberts or playfully chastising others for their sobriety, Ohtani’s jubilance has been striking. They reveal a man not only enjoying his first taste of the postseason, but basking in it.
“We’ve seen his emotions grow over the year,” Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia said. “It’s just him becoming more and more himself, and being comfortable showing it.”
Perhaps it is now — on a high-profile team of stars, within the intensity of late October baseball, at a time when MLB is salivating over the potential of its biggest headliner on its grandest stage — that Ohtani’s truest self has emerged.
“He’s become, over the course of the season, I think, who he intrinsically is,” Roberts said. “He’s very isolated, very quiet, stays to himself, private. But I do think that naturally he is a goofy person. He’s fun-loving. He’s a crazy good competitor. So I think that when he sees people having fun, enjoying themselves in moments, I think we’ve seen more of that over the course of the season. I think that’s a good thing for him because it’s honest. And I think that’s a good thing for our players to see that, ‘Man, this guy is not just a robot. He’s like a real person who has emotions.'”
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Tisha Thompson
Federal prosecutors recommended a 57-month prison sentence Thursday for Ippei Mizuhara, the former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, and released an audio recording in which they say he impersonates Ohtani in an attempt to wire money from Ohtani’s bank account.
In a separate court filing, Mizuhara’s attorney, Michael G. Freedman, said Mizuhara has suffered from a gambling addiction since he was a teenager and asked for an 18-month sentence.
Mizuhara was fired in March 2024 after an ESPN investigation uncovered he had sent millions in wire transfers from Ohtani’s account to an illegal bookmaker. He pleaded guilty to bank fraud and filing a false tax return in June, admitting that he stole nearly $17 million from Ohtani to pay off gambling debts to an illegal bookmaker. He is scheduled to be sentenced Feb. 6.
According to the prosecutors’ filing, Mizuhara called the bank and impersonated Ohtani on approximately 24 occasions in order to wire money from Ohtani’s account. In the recording, which prosecutors said was made Feb. 2, 2022, a bank employee asked Mizuhara to identify himself.
“Who am I speaking with?” the bank employee asked in the recording, which was first obtained by The Athletic.
“Shohei Ohtani,” Mizuhara replied.
Mizuhara told the bank employee that he could not log in to online banking. “I tried to make a wire transfer a couple of days ago. They told me that’s probably the reason, they transferred me to this number,” he said.
After Mizuhara recited a six-digit code she texted him for two-factor authentication, Mizuhara told her he needed to send $200,000 for a car loan.
“What is your relationship to the payee?” the agent asked.
“He’s my friend,” Mizuhara responded.
“Have you met your friend in person?” she asked.
“Yes, many times,” Mizuhara said.
“I just ask because we haven’t been able to verify the transaction,” the agent said before asking how Mizuhara received the wire information. Mizuhara told her he received it by email but later talked about it with the recipient in person.
“Will there be any future wires to your friend?” the agent asked.
“Possibly,” Mizuhara replied.
Prosecutors said the clip had been edited to redact the names of the bank and the person receiving the wires. ESPN reported in May that Mizuhara wired some of the money to the bank account of Ryan Boyajian, an associate of bookmaker Mathew Bowyer.
Prosecutors also recommended Mizuhara pay nearly $17 million in restitution to Ohtani as well as $1.1 million to the IRS.
In his filing, Freedman wrote that Mizuhara started gambling when he was 18 and visited casinos four to five times a week. At 22, he began playing online poker and betting on sports. While working for Ohtani at the Los Angeles Angels, Mizuhara’s gambling increased because of poker games hosted by other baseball players in hotel rooms, according to the filing. ESPN previously reported that Mizuhara met Bowyer at a poker game at the team hotel in San Diego in 2021.
Mizuhara placed about 19,000 bets with Bowyer over a two-year period and accumulated over $40 million in debt. Bowyer gave Mizuhara a startup credit of $20,000, Freedman wrote.
Freedman added that Mizuhara has been attending Gamblers Anonymous meetings three times a week.
Prosecutors wrote in a separate filing, however, that a gambling addiction “cannot fully explain defendant’s conduct because defendant used the stolen funds for numerous personal expenses that had nothing to do with gambling.”
“Ultimately, the government submits, the motivating factor behind defendant’s crimes was not a gambling addiction but rather greed,” prosecutors wrote.
In a letter also submitted to U.S. District Court Judge John W. Holcomb on Thursday, Mizuhara wrote that he felt like he was on call 24/7 and had almost no time off while working for Ohtani, who he first met while working as an interpreter for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.
“Usually when a Japanese baseball player makes the move to the United States, they would bring over multiple staff members to take care of various tasks such as a driver, trainer, chef, off the field interpreter/support member, etc. but I was the only person Shohei brought along so naturally I had to support him on most of the above mentioned tasks,” Mizuhara wrote.
The Angels, Ohtani’s first team in the U.S., initially paid Mizuhara $85,000 before increasing his salary to $250,000 in 2022, according to the prosecutors’ filing. When he moved to the Dodgers with Ohtani in 2024, his salary grew to $500,000. Ohtani also paid Mizuhara a separate salary and gave him a Porsche Cayenne, the filing states.
In his letter, Mizuhara wrote that Ohtani paid him roughly $2,500 a month from October to January and $125 to $130 a month from February to September. Mizuhara said he struggled to make ends meet because he had to live near Ohtani in California, pay for his wife’s travel between the U.S. and Japan, and rent accommodations while traveling with Ohtani to Japan in the offseason.
“All of these extra expenses were taking a huge toll on me and I was living paycheck to paycheck, I would have to borrow money from family and friends some months to make ends meet,” Mizuhara wrote.
Mizuhara added that his wife, Naomi, also helped support Ohtani. She cooked him meals, watched his dog and helped him with broken nails he suffered while pitching.
“She truly supported both Shohei and I to the best of her abilities throughout the years and she never complained through all of this as she knew my priority was to support Shohei to the best of my ability,” Mizuhara wrote.
Naomi told the judge in a separate letter that Mizuhara is her “only family” after recently losing her parents and other family members, as well as their family dog. Unable to obtain a green card until 2023, she described becoming “emotionally unstable” and developed hearing loss and alopecia areata due to stress.
“I deeply regret not being able to support him or notice his struggles during that time,” she wrote.
At the end of his letter, Mizuhara asked for mercy from the judge and apologized to Ohtani.
“Lastly, I truly admire Shohei as a baseball player and a human being and I was committed to devote my life so Shohei can be the best version of himself on the field,” Mizuhara wrote. “I want to say I am truly sorry for violating his trust in me.”
Sports
Questions on the NFL draft’s top-10 picks: What are the Titans’ early plans? Which teams need QBs?
There are just three more games in the 2024 NFL season, and then all eyes will turn to the offseason. And teams with top-10 picks in the 2025 draft — which begins on April 24 — will be studying the group of prospects closely and starting to make plans for their selections.
This draft class is highlighted by a battle between Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders for the QB1 spot, and it is expected to have more high-end defensive players — such as Penn State’s Abdul Carter — than we saw last April. The Tennessee Titans have the top pick for the first time since 2016 (when they traded it to the Los Angeles Rams), and they’ll control a lot of what happens in Round 1. But the rest of the top 10 offers intrigue, too.
We asked our NFL Nation reporters, who cover teams with top-10 picks, to answer one big question about the early selections. Are the Titans, Browns and Giants all leaning toward finding a new QB in the draft? Is Tom Brady going to help the Raiders in their own QB search? Will the Bears pick a defender for the first time since 2018? Let’s dive in.
Jump to a team:
TEN | CLE | NYG | NE | JAX
LV | NYJ | CAR | NO | CHI
After they hired new GM Mike Borgonzi, what do we know about the Titans’ early plans at No. 1?
Borgonzi played a significant role in the Chiefs’ decision to trade up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and he’ll have to strongly consider taking a quarterback here. Titans coach Brian Callahan will get a closer look at the top prospects during both the East-West Shrine and Senior Bowl weeks. He didn’t close the door on Will Levis returning next season, but it’s pretty clear the organization is still searching for a franchise QB.
“Well, we got one quarterback under contract [Levis],” Callahan said during his season-ending press conference. “The other two are free agents, and we’re in position to potentially draft a quarterback.”
Callahan has been through the No. 1 pick process before with the Bengals, who took Joe Burrow in 2020. President of football operations Chad Brinker told ESPN he’d like to have more than the two picks the Titans currently have in the top 100, though. Tennessee hasn’t said it’s open for business yet, but a trade out of the first pick could easily address the organization’s desire to add more draft picks. — Turron Davenport
Does Deshaun Watson reinjuring his right Achilles tendon mean the Browns will definitely go QB at No. 2, or are other options still in play?
The Browns were always going to search for quarterback options in free agency and the draft, even before Watson’s setback. But a quarterback at No. 2 isn’t a given.
Cleveland would have to love one of the top prospects, and general manager Andrew Berry has often preached a philosophy of sticking to his board and taking the best player available. He has also shown a propensity to trade back and accumulate additional picks, which is something he alluded to in his end-of-season news conference.
“With having the second pick in the draft, whether we select a player or use it to maximize in another way, it gives us an opportunity to really pivot if we need to,” Berry said. — Daniel Oyefusi
Are the Giants more likely to address their QB spot in the draft or free agency?
It may not be an either/or proposition. The Giants have made it their “No. 1 issue” this offseason to find their quarterback of the future, according to owner John Mara. Their plan entering this past season was to draft a quarterback if it didn’t work out with Daniel Jones. But the timing of it all following Jones’ release in November could dictate that the Giants address the position in both free agency and the draft.
Tommy DeVito will be their only quarterback under contract this offseason. They will likely need a strong contingency from free agency in March, just in case they can’t get a quarterback at the top of the draft. Remember, Mara made it clear the pressure is on to produce in 2025. — Jordan Raanan
Is this an obvious spot for one of the top offensive tackles in the class, or could the Patriots address other holes?
New coach Mike Vrabel acknowledged the offensive line as a top priority in his introductory news conference. “You look at the teams that are able to protect the quarterback and dictate the flow of the game offensively; making sure that up front we’re sound, we’re strong — whether that’s through free agency or the draft — that’s something that’s critical,” Vrabel said.
The Patriots have ranked last in the NFL in pass block win rate each of the past two seasons. But that doesn’t mean they will automatically pick an offensive tackle at No. 4. They need blue-chip players at other positions, such as receiver, defensive line and pass rusher. — Mike Reiss
What are the Jaguars’ biggest roster weaknesses headed into the offseason?
Everything has to do with pass defense. The safety play has been subpar and they likely won’t re-sign Andre Cisco. They need another cornerback opposite Tyson Campbell, and the pass rush — outside of defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker — was spotty this season.
The Jaguars were last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (257.4, the third-worst mark in franchise history), picked off only six passes and gave up 23 pass plays of 30 or more yards. Hines-Allen dipped from 17.5 sacks in 2023 to eight, though Walker became the second player in franchise history to record 10 or more sacks in consecutive seasons. Moving Arik Armstead back inside may boost the interior rush, but the Jaguars need another edge rusher and to improve in coverage. — Michael DiRocco
What are you hearing on how much Tom Brady could play a role in the Raiders’ QB search?
The Raiders, who added Brady as a minority owner, need a coach and general manager before making a choice on QB1. Still, Raiders owner Mark Davis said the seven-time Super Bowl champion would indeed be involved.
“Although Tom can’t play, I think he can help us select a quarterback in the future and potentially train him as well,” Davis said in October, when Brady’s ownership stake was approved.
Of course, that brings us to the prospect with whom Brady has already been linked — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. In fact, it was Davis who told Sanders at a Las Vegas Aces game on Oct. 5, “Who knows, you might be home right now.” — Paul Gutierrez
Outside of quarterback, what other needs could the Jets fill with their first-round pick?
Think defense. The Jets finished 23rd in defensive EPA, which was way down from third in 2023. They will need a cornerback to pair with Sauce Gardner, assuming they lose their second option D.J. Reed in free agency. And there has been some talent drain on the once-formidable defensive line, which could use more blue-chip talent in the room other than Quinnen Williams. Edge rusher isn’t a major need, assuming defensive end Jermaine Johnson returns to form after his right Achilles tendon injury, but it would be hard to pass on an elite prospect.
The overall drafting philosophy will be shaped by the new general manager and head coach. Scheme will play an important factor in these decisions. — Rich Cimini
What do we know about whether it’s defense all the way for Carolina at No. 8?
Carolina won’t be all-in on defense with nine picks, but the top selections should be heavy on that side of the ball. General manager Dan Morgan, a former Pro Bowl linebacker, took it personally that his team ranked last in total defense (404.5 yards allowed per game) and against the run (179.8 yards allowed per game). He kept defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, implying this was more of a personnel problem.
The offense is headed in the right direction with quarterback Bryce Young and other key players returning. So adding an edge rusher, safety help and a big run stopper will be the focus. Just don’t look for this to be a defensive sweep as it was in 2020, when Carolina became the first team in NFL history to use all of its seven draft picks on defense. It still needs an elite receiver and more depth at running back. — David Newton
With the Saints’ big needs and cap issues, is this looking like a best-player-available approach right now?
At $70.6 million over the cap in 2025 (per Roster Management System), the Saints are likely going to have to draft for need. But their biggest need is open to interpretation. They are looking for successors at defensive end and linebacker for 35-year-olds Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis, respectively. They also could use another wide receiver to slot alongside Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, as well as permanent fixes to the offensive line.
A quarterback might be on their mind, too, depending on the wants of the Saints’ next coach. But as general manager Mickey Loomis pointed out at his end-of-season news conference, they don’t have the luxury of a top pick to do that. And Derek Carr has two years remaining on his four-year, $150 million contract. — Katherine Terrell
The Bears haven’t used a first-round pick on defense since 2018. What are the chances that streak ends in 2025?
The Bears have major needs to address in the trenches, so it’s fair to say Chicago using its first-round selection on a pass rusher is at 50%.
When asked about top defensive end Montez Sweat‘s disappointing season (5.5 sacks), general manager Ryan Poles said adding more talent is the best way to defeat the number of double-teams and chips that Sweat receives. Creating more one-on-one matchups would allow Chicago’s pass rush win rate to improve from its 37% finish in 2024, which was a slight step up from the previous season but still ranked 24th in the NFL. — Courtney Cronin
Sports
Dodgers land another star? Jays do (or don’t) extend Vlad Jr.? Bold predictions for the rest of the MLB offseason
With Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Anthony Santander coming off the board recently, MLB free agency has entered the homestretch — but there are still plenty of big moves to come in the final month before spring training arrives.
Where will the top remaining free agents, including Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, land? Will we see more blockbuster trades? And will the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reach an extension to avoid the star hitting free agency after the 2025 season?
We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this action-packed winter will wrap up.
Free agency
Jorge Castillo: Pete Alonso will re-sign with the New York Mets.
Alonso, a beloved homegrown star in Queens, remains a free agent. The Mets, with money to burn, could still use another right-handed-hitting slugger. A reunion seems almost too obvious. Add the fact that both sides are open to a three-year deal with opt-outs, according to a source, and it’s a matter of only believing it won’t happen when Alonso signs on the dotted line to play elsewhere.
Yes, the Mets have recently started spending money elsewhere (Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter). Yes, they could slide Mark Vientos across the diamond and give the third baseman job to Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña. Yes, Alonso is a first baseman on the wrong side of 30 with defensive limitations and little value on the basepaths. But Alonso is one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball since debuting in 2019. He has proved he can thrive in New York City. Put him behind Juan Soto, which would give him more fastballs to devour, and Alonso will remain one of the most productive power hitters in the majors for the next three seasons.
The Mets have had a great winter, but the Dodgers have created a super team with the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres also fighting for National League supremacy. The competition is stiff. Maybe negotiations between the two sides have burned the bridge to a deal. But it wouldn’t take much to build another one and make it happen.
David Schoenfield: Alex Bregman to … the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Why should the Dodgers stop now? If Bregman can’t find the big deal he wants, the Dodgers might be a surprise fit. Max Muncy is a free agent after 2025 and prone to strikeouts. Hyeseong Kim‘s bat projects as more of a utility infielder than a starting second baseman. Bregman can shift between second and third in 2025 and then replace Muncy in 2026. Too much money even for the Dodgers? Not really. Between Muncy, Chris Taylor, Michael Conforto and Miguel Rojas, the Dodgers have $49.5 million coming off the books after this season (and the pitching staff is set for years).
Bradford Doolittle: Bregman will sign with the Detroit Tigers.
There are lots of reasons why this makes sense, with the exception being positional fit since Detroit added another infielder in Gleyber Torres. Nevertheless, the Tigers have the payroll space to add Bregman and his positional versatility gives the team a lot of leeway in how to use him for the duration of the contract. He could start at any of the infield spots, and Detroit could move players around Torres to make a number of configurations work. Bregman would be the perfect veteran presence for a young team at the outset of a new window of winning. His history with manager A.J. Hinch gives him a comfort zone. Bregman has to end up somewhere and this makes the most sense to me.
Trades
Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres will make a blockbuster deal.
It was less than four months ago that the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes in the NL Division Series, needing only a victory at home to eliminate L.A. once more. Since then, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has watched his hated rivals not only defeat arguably the most well-rounded team he has ever assembled but win the World Series and then proceed to sign practically every player they want — including Sasaki, the Japanese phenom Preller coveted most. As for Preller himself? January is almost over, and he has yet to add to his major league roster.
There’s no chance that continues. And because the free agent class has dwindled significantly and money remains tight in San Diego, look for Preller to swing a big trade before spring training — the type we have seen from him often. Holes remain in the Padres’ rotation and throughout their lineup. Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth can all be had, and the guess here is that at least one of those four will go. Preller has stood pat for far too long. It won’t continue.
Jesse Rogers: The Boston Red Sox will trade for Nolan Arenado.
After exhausting attempts to sign Bregman, the Red Sox pivot to Arenado as the St. Louis Cardinals start to exhibit a bit of desperation with the season approaching. The fit in St. Louis just isn’t right anymore and everyone knows it. The Cardinals aren’t concerned with money owed to Arenado, so they’re willing to pick up a portion of it because they want quality prospects in return. Boston can deliver that.
Eric Karabell: Arenado will be traded to the Seattle Mariners.
The Cardinals have made it clear they must move on from Arenado to install Nolan Gorman at third base. We heard rumors of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and other teams interested. We haven’t heard about the Mariners, but all they have done is sign utility man Donovan Solano. The Arenado of old might never return — at the plate, at least — but the Cardinals seem so desperate, watch them handle the bulk of his contract and leave Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto with little choice. Arenado is coming off one of his worst seasons, but this Mariners lineup could use even league average hitters at this point.
Vlad Jr.’s future in Toronto
Paul Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn down a $400 million extension with the Blue Jays.
Feb. 18. That is Toronto’s first full-squad workout, and more importantly, the self-imposed deadline for extension talks between Vlad Jr. and the organization.
Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year at an opportune time — he slashed .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which propelled him to a sixth-place American League MVP finish. The Blue Jays must pay up to retain their homegrown star — they’ll offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he’ll reject their overtures and chase free agency instead.
Kiley McDaniel: Toronto will reach an extension with Guerrero.
It’s obviously easier to predict something won’t happen — such as Vlad Jr. looking to test the market next winter or holding out for a better offer from Toronto — than predicting a deal being struck. That said, Toronto needs to make a big move, and after Shohei Ohtani, Soto and Sasaki weren’t that move, the heat is on.
Extending Vlad Jr. is the move the Jays can make as their headline move of the offseason. The longer they wait, the more likely it is that a team with a different economic reality jumps in next winter to top what Toronto can exclusively offer now. The price is a question — I’d think to start at Rafael Devers‘ 10-year, $313.5 million extension from two years ago and adjust for inflation. Regardless, it’s an AAV the Jays can stomach — and it’s a franchise move they need to make as soon as possible.
Off-the-field drama
Buster Olney: Players will start to complain about having to play in a minor league park.
Remember how last year the quality of the uniforms suddenly became a really big deal, and we started to hear a lot from players about that? Well, at some point in the next two months, the fact that the Athletics will be playing in a minor league park is going to become a thing. Players will soon be face-to-face with the reality that they’ll be playing in Sacramento — in a park with one-third the capacity of a stadium like Tropicana Field, with an average July temperature of 95 degrees — and the commentary will begin and roll all the way through the regular season. As with the uniforms: It’ll be a disgrace.
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