It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.
Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?
Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.
And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.
But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.
This week’s Anger Index:
There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.
It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)
To look at actual results paints a clear picture.
BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.
Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?
And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.
What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.
There’s a great, though little watched, TV show from the 2010s called “Rectify,” about a man who escapes death row after new evidence is found, only to be constantly harassed by the same system that fraudulently locked him away for 20 years. This is basically the story of SMU.
Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 13 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 22, .578 opponent win percentage
Team B: 7-1 record, No. 15 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 91, .567 opponent win percentage
OK, you probably guessed Team A is SMU. The Mustangs have wins against Louisville and Pitt — both relatively emphatic — and their lone loss came to No. 9 BYU, which came before a quarterback change and included five red zone drives that amounted to only six total points.
Team B? That’s Notre Dame. The Irish have the worst loss by far (to Northern Illinois) of any team in the top 25, beat a common opponent by the same score (though, while SMU outgained Louisville by 20 yards, the Cardinals actually outgained Notre Dame by 115) and have played one fewer game.
The difference? SMU has the stigma — of the death penalty, of the upstart program new to the Power 4, of being unworthy. Notre Dame is the big brand, and that results in being ranked three spots higher and, if the playoff were held today, getting in, while the Mustangs are left out.
There are three two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, which seems to be a perfectly reasonable consensus if you look at the AP poll, too. But are we sure that’s so reasonable?
Two stats we like to look at to measure a team’s quality are success rate (how often does a team make a play that improves its odds of winning) and explosiveness. Measure the differentials in each between offense and defense, then plot those out, and you’ll get a pretty clear look of who’s truly dominant in college football this season.
Explosive Play differential vs. Successful Play differential
Auburn & Ark make no sense Iowa & Iowa St are twinsies! Is Ole Miss undervalued? pic.twitter.com/h87SKCdOtr
That outer band that features Penn State, Texas, Miami, Ohio State and Indiana (and notably, not Oregon, Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M)? That’s where Ole Miss lives.
The Rebels have two losses this season, each by three points, both in games they outgained the winning team. They lost to LSU on the road and, yes, somehow lost to a dismal Kentucky team. But hey, LSU lost to USC, too. It has been a weird season.
SP+ loves Ole Miss. The Rebels check in at No. 4 there, behind only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia.
The FPI agrees, ranking the Rebels fifth.
In ESPN’s game control metric, no team is better. Ole Miss has the third-best average in-game win percentage. That suggests a lot of strange twists, and bad luck was involved with its losses. These are things the committee should be evaluating when comparing like teams.
But how about this comparison?
Team A: 7-2, 23 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Team B: 7-2, 19 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Pretty similar, eh?
Of course, one of them is Ole Miss. That’s Team A this time around.
Team B is Alabama, ranked five spots higher.
Sure, this situation can be resolved quite easily this weekend with a win over Georgia, but Ole Miss starting at the back of the pack of SEC contenders seems like a miss by the committee, even if the math will change substantially before the next rankings are revealed.
Oh, thanks so much for the No. 25 nod, committee. All Army has done is win every game without trailing the entire season. Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But Army? At No. 25? Thirteen spots behind Boise State, the Knights’ competition for the Group of 5’s bid? Something tells us some spies from Air Force have infiltrated the committee’s room in some sort of Manchurian Candidate scenario.
Sure, the Seminoles are terrible now, and yes, the committee this season has plenty of new faces, but that doesn’t mean folks in Tallahassee have forgiven or forgotten what happened a year ago. Before the committee’s playoff snub, FSU had won 19 straight games and averaged 39 points. Since the snub, the Noles are 1-9 and haven’t scored 21 points in any game. Who’s to blame for this? Mike Norvell? The coaching staff? DJ Uiagalelei and the other struggling QBs? Well, sure. But it’s much easier to just blame the committee. Those folks killed Florida State’s playoff hopes and ended their run of success. The least they could do this year is rank them No. 25 just for fun.
What has stood out most so far — and what’s next for the World Series hopefuls? Our MLB experts weigh in.
ALCS: Mariners vs. Blue Jays
What has surprised you most so far?
Jorge Castillo: The assumption was Seattle’s pitching staff, drained after an exhausting ALDS that concluded with a 15-inning Game 5 on Friday, would need at least Sunday’s ALCS opening game to reset. But Mariners pitchers did not relent. Game 1 starter Bryce Miller set the tone, rebounding from a rocky first inning to give the Mariners six crucial innings. The bullpen starred in Game 2, when Eduard Bazardo, Carlos Vargas and Emerson Hancock each tossed two scoreless innings. Tuesday’s off day should only help the Mariners as the series shifts to their cavernous home ballpark.
Jeff Passan: The lack of competitive at-bats from the Blue Jays. Yes, the Mariners’ pitching is very good. But the Blue Jays — whose high-quality, work-the-count, spoil-pitches approach all season helped deliver them an AL East championship — were practically tweaking to swing at Miller’s pitches in Game 1 and weren’t much better in Game 2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitless. As are Daulton Varsho, Andres Gimenez and Davis Schneider.
Four runs in two games is not going to do it against a lineup as deep as the Mariners’ and with a pitching staff as susceptible as the Blue Jays’ has been this postseason.
How can the Mariners close this out at home?
Castillo: Hitting home runs at T-Mobile Park isn’t easy — the Mariners hit 134 on the road and 108 at home — but long balls are often the difference in October. Such was the case in Game 2, when the Mariners scored eight of their 10 runs on three homers — two three-run home runs and a two-run shot.
The Blue Jays surrendered 209 home runs during the regular season — the sixth-most allowed in the majors and the most allowed by a postseason team. If the Mariners continue hitting mistakes over the fence, the Blue Jays’ chances of winning four of the next five games are slim to none.
Passan: Do not treat this as a coronation. Too much has happened in Mariners history to ever doubt that something can go very wrong. They have existed 49 years and never so much as made a World Series.
The real answer: cut down on the punchouts. The Mariners are striking out more than 30% of the time over the first two games, and it diminishes opportunities compared to Toronto, which is at 13%. Like Jorge said, as long as Seattle is hitting home runs, this might be moot. In the absence of that, though, putting the ball in play can save them.
What can the Blue Jays do to get this series back to Toronto?
Castillo: It starts with scoring more runs. The Mariners’ pitching staff, tired and all, has silenced an offense that demolished Yankees pitching last week. The Blue Jays tallied only four runs in the two games in Toronto. All were scored in the first two innings. In Game 2, the Blue Jays went 1-for-28 with three walks after the second inning.
Nathan Lukes and George Springer are the only Blue Jays with multiple hits in the series. Guerrero is 0-for-7 with one walk after finishing the ALDS 9-for-17 with three home runs. Varsho is 0-for-7. Addison Barger and Andres Giménez are 0-for-6. Springer’s leadoff home run in Game 1 was the only ball Toronto hit over the fence.
The Blue Jays scored 21 runs in a three-game sweep of the Mariners during the regular season. But that was at home in May, and T-Mobile Park is a pitcher’s haven. It’ll be a quick series if their bats don’t wake up in Seattle.
Passan: Just look at Game 1 of the NLCS. The Dodgers’ offense is struggling, and it really doesn’t matter because Blake Snell threw eight of the most brilliant innings you’ll ever see. And even though Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer, the Blue Jays’ starters in Game 3 and Game 4, are not near Snell’s caliber today, they are both former Cy Young winners who have pitched in huge games. Seattle’s pitching is too good for Toronto to win this series via slugfests. So the Blue Jays are simply going to have to beat the Mariners at their own game: solid starting pitching and enough relief to backfill.
NLCS
What has jumped out to you most so far?
Bradford Doolittle: The Dodgers’ starting pitching has been lights-out. It’s not just all the zeros that Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto put up; the Brewers’ hitters looked overmatched against them most of the time. Milwaukee had a clear plan to ambush Yamamoto as often as possible in Game 2, but after Jackson Chourio‘s first-pitch leadoff homer, it just didn’t work. Yamamoto kept pumping in strikes, and the Brewers did nothing with them.
Jesse Rogers: The Dodgers’ starting pitching went from iffy to dominant in the blink of an eye. Part of the reason the Brewers went 6-0 against L.A. during the regular season is that they faced a team piecing together its starting staff. Dave Roberts even admitted to “slow playing” Snell just to have him ready for this moment.
Not even a first-pitch home run by Chourio off Yamamoto in Game 2 could change the narrative. Yamamoto threw a 111-pitch complete game, giving up only two more hits and a walk after that long ball. On most teams, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani would be the No. 1 and No. 2 pitchers, but the Dodgers will roll them out against Milwaukee at Dodger Stadium later this week. It’s an embarrassment of riches — and it could doom the Brewers’ chances at their first World Series title.
What do the Dodgers need to do to close out this series at home?
Bradford Doolittle: Just keep riding the wave. The L.A. rotation has become the story of the postseason so far, and even though the Dodgers’ offense hasn’t matched the pitchers in terms of dominance, this is the hottest team around right now. And the offense isn’t going to grind this way forever.
Jesse Rogers: Just keep pitching the way they are and maybe get Ohtani going at the plate. Not that they’ve needed him so far, but if he starts to light it up, this series won’t return to the Midwest. Closer Roki Sasaki is also likely to be more comfortable in his home setting than he was in Game 1. All signs point to the Dodgers winning a short series.
What do the Brewers need to get this series back to Milwaukee?
Bradford Doolittle: They need traffic on the bases, especially early in the games. They haven’t been able to showcase their athleticism against the Dodgers because no one has been getting on base. Get on base, hope to unnerve Glasnow and Ohtani and get into that L.A. bullpen by the fourth or fifth inning. The formula isn’t complicated, but the way the Dodgers are going, executing it will be a challenge.
Jesse Rogers: Putting up a crooked number would help. Somewhere along the line, they need one of those Brewers innings — the kind that forces the defense into mistakes while utilizing their speed and ability on the basepaths to create havoc. Easier said than done against this Dodgers starting staff, but if they can get into the underbelly of L.A.’s bullpen, they have a chance. That’s the path forward for the Brewers.
“Surprised, Eddie? If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I wouldn’t be more surprised than I am right now.”
— Clark Griswold and Cousin Eddie, “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation”
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located behind the storage trailers that hold all of the makeup and rubber noses required to attempt to make Glen Powell look even remotely unattractive in “Chad Powers,” we, like Chad’s South Georgia Catfish teammates and coaching staff, sometimes struggle with recognizing who and what is actually standing before us. Then, when they reveal their true identities, which we’re assuming Chad will do at some point, we are left standing with our jaws on the floor and face in our hands like Hugh Freeze during another replay review.
See: Last week’s much-anticipated Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Mega Bowl between what were then the Bottom 10 third-ranked UMess Minuetmen and the fourth-ranked State of Kent. And we weren’t alone in our anticipation of a close game. The wiseguys in the desert with their calculators next to the shrimp buffet had Kent as a 1.5-point favorite, and our ESPN Analytics team’s Ouija board Win Probability Index believed UMass had a 43.9% chance to emerge victorious.
Final score: Kent State 42, UMass 6.
See, Part 2: Penn State, which just three weekends ago came within a couple of knuckles of beating Oregon in overtime, was facing its second consecutive Bottom 10 contender, Northworstern, having lost to the then-ucLa Boo’ins the week before. And the Nittany Lions lost again, their third straight defeat, then fired James Franklin, who had coached them to within three points of playing for the national title just 10 months ago.
The point is that no one knows what the hell we are talking about. But talking about it is so much fun. Well, for us it is so much fun. In Amherst, Massachusetts, and State College, Pennsylvania, they are looking out the window at the silent majesty of a winter’s morn and a guy in his bathrobe, emptying a chemical toilet into their sewer.
With apologies to former North Texas tight end Robert Griswold, former Northwestern tight end Bob Griswold, Cousin Eddie George and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 7 Bottom 10 rankings.
The Minuetmen are currently ranked 130th in points against, 135th in rushing yards and 136th in points for. They are also ranked 111th in passing yards. Do you think those other units look at the passing guys and say, “Stop making the rest of us look bad”?
The Beavers traveled to North Carolina and lost to Appalachian State, then hosted and lost to another North Carolina team in Wake Forest, then fired head coach Trent Bray, who wasn’t even the biggest Coach Trent to lose his job this week …
The good news for the Bearkats is they kame the klosest to akkcomplishing viktory as they have all season before sukkumbing to Jacksonville State Not Jacksonville City 29-27. Up next on the kalendar is a Konference USA Pillow Fight of the Week. Against whom do they klash? Keep scrolling …
Yep, it’s the Minors, who will travel to Sam Houston State on Wednesday night. Hopefully someone reminds them that Sam Houston State isn’t actually in Houston; it’s an hour north in Huntsville. Hopefully someone reminds them that it’s not the Huntsville in Alabama, but the one in Texas, one town over from Arizona, which hopefully someone reminds them is the Arizona town in Texas, not the state of Arizona.
Sources tell Bottom 10 JortsCenter that when James Franklin drove home from the office with his box of stuff, he was greeted in the driveway by Charlie Weis and Bobby Bonilla, who gave him a signed copy of “How To Make a Mattress From Your Pile of Money” by Scrooge McDuck.
The Woof Pack started the year with a loss to Penn State back when Happy Valley was still happy, and followed that with a win over Sacramento State. The rest of the year has been like another former Reno-based late-night show, HBO’s “Cathouse.” And just like that brothel reality program, we never admit that we’ve watched, but secretly we can’t look away.
If you were wondering when MTSU and Novada might play in their own version of the Pillow Fight of the Week, we have bad news. It already happened. The Blew Raiders scored two TDs in the final six minutes to win 14-13 back in Week 3.
When Trent Dilfer was fired by UAB, he went down to the locker room to tear a bunch of stuff up, but after 2½ seasons of him exploding like the red Anger guy from “Inside Out,” there was nothing left to break.
The Pillow Fight of the Week, Y’all Edition, is the college football equivalent of that pointing Spider-Man meme, as Georgia State Not Southern travels to Georgia Southern Not State, which is 2-4. The winner retains exclusive rights to “GSU” for the next year. The loser has to change all its logos to “GUS.”
For those of you — and we are talking to ourselves here — who are still bummed about the lack of substance in the UMass-Kent State game, picture in your mind Obi-Wan Kenobi and Yoda sitting on a Dagobah log as Luke Skywalker flies away to get his butt whipped by Darth Vader. “That boy was our last hope.” “No … there is another.” These Other Huskies travel to UMass on Nov. 12 … and host Kent State over Thanksgiving weekend. Also, how great would it be to see Obi-Wan and Yoda wearing #MACtion gear? Speaking of the Midwest, I’ve heard from a lot of Wisconsin fans that the Bad-gers should be in this spot. Yeah, I’ve seen your schedule. You’ll be here soon enough. To quote Luke’s dad — Skywalker, not Fickell — it is your destiny.
Waiting list: State of Kent, EMU Emus, South Alabama Redundancies, Oklahoma State No Pokes, Charlotte 1-and-5ers, Wisconsin Bad-gers, Bah-stan Cawledge, UNC Chapel Bill, clapping with fingers.
The move was expected and doesn’t rule out the veteran third baseman returning to Boston, but for now, he will be part of the free agent class for a second straight offseason.
Last offseason, Bregman didn’t find a home until the start of spring training, when he agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox in mid-February that included opt-outs after 2025 and 2026.
Bregman, 31, got off to a fast start in Boston, hitting .299 with 11 homers and 35 RBIs before suffering a quad injury that sidelined him from May 24 to July 11. He finished the season with a .273 average, 18 home runs and 62 RBIs. Off the field, he was praised for his leadership on a young Red Sox team that lost in three games to the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card Series.
After the team’s postseason exit, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow declined to say whether contract discussions were already ongoing with Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras.
“Obviously, Alex has the right as structured in his contract to opt out, and he’s going to do what’s best for his family,” Breslow said Oct. 6. “At the same time, I will not miss an opportunity to talk about his contributions on the field, in the clubhouse, to the coaching staff, to the front office. Every conversation we’ve had, I think I’ve learned something about how his impact and influence have rubbed off on his teammates.”
Boston shortstop Trevor Story also has an opt-out in his deal after inking a six-year, $140 million contract with the team in March 2022. If Story exercises his player option, the Red Sox will have the right to exercise a club option to make the deal worth $160 million over seven seasons.