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  • Greg Wyshynski, ESPNDec 2, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

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      Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.

The first quarter of the 2024-25 NHL season is in the books, having produced a few juggernaut teams counterbalanced by preseason favorites who have cratered early on — including the Boston Bruins, who fired coach Jim Montgomery after 20 games.

What can the best and worst from the first chunk of the schedule tell us about what’s yet to come this season?

Here are my NHL awards and superlatives for the first quarter of the season, from outstanding achievements to bitter disappointments to some unfathomable goalie gaffes.

The Jets aren’t lapping the field. The Minnesota Wild have caught up to them in the Presidents’ Trophy race. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes, Vegas Golden Knights and New Jersey Devils are right in their rearview mirror. By the end of the quarter, Winnipeg was a lot like these other hot starters: Banking points early to decrease the pressure later in the season.

What separates the Jets from that pack is their utter dominance in banking those points. Through 24 games, Winnipeg was second in goals per game behind Washington, second in goals against per game and team save percentage behind Minnesota, with the second best power play behind New Jersey.

We went deep inside the numbers recently to figure out how Winnipeg became this early-season steamroller. Connor Hellebuyck is the most obvious advantage, not only in having the world’s best goaltender in the crease, but in what that does from a confidence perspective for everything else they’ve done. “Everybody knows if you don’t have goaltending, it makes for a long year. So Helly gives us that foundation,” head coach Scott Arniel said.

When Rick Bowness retired, Arniel moved up from associate coach and unlocked something in this group. Of course, it helps to have a receptive group. Back-to-back first-round exists — including one courtesy of the Colorado Avalanche last spring that left them motivated by their humiliation — can open a player’s mind to new possibilities.

If the Jets continue to play like this, their five-game playoff dismissal last postseason will also be the thing that keeps their egos in check. “It’s why we’re not over the top, living the high life right now, because we know what happened last year,” Arniel said.

There are a few smoldering piles of disaster that could have captured this dishonor.

The Edmonton Oilers lost in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final and offered up an encore of disastrous goaltending and curious underperformance from key skaters. The Pittsburgh Penguins earned more questions about their core’s future than points in the standings. The Detroit Red Wings appear unable to make the leap to playoff contention even if you spotted them a trampoline. The Bruins are outside a playoff spot, playing poorly enough to encourage the panic-firing of coach Jim Montgomery by management.

But the Predators are a special kind of terrible.

This was a 99-point playoff team that augmented a talented roster with three stunning free-agent coups: Forward Jonathan Marchessault, a former Conn Smythe winner jettisoned by the Golden Knights; defenseman Brady Skjei of the Hurricanes; and most significantly Steven Stamkos, goal-scoring superstar from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

But there’s an alchemy to building a championship-caliber team, and the Predators have failed that chemistry test. That infusion of offense talent somehow led to a massive regression, to the point where Nashville was last in the NHL in goals per game (2.32) and in expected goals at 5-on-5.

Even as Nashville has picked up a few points in the standings, things are getting uglier. Stamkos, who had one goal in his first 10 games with Nashville and only seven goals in 24 games so far, recently called out his teammates’ effort during this offensive drought. “If you’re not scoring, what else are you doing out there? What else can you do to help your team win? I’ve just felt like, for whatever reason, in these stretches, we tend to go the other way,” he said to a collective yikes from outside observers.

But there’s still hope in NashVegas. After all, this was a team that made the playoffs on the strength of 18 straight games without a regulation loss. All they need to do is rebook U2 at Sphere and then not attend their concert as a form of penance. Easy stuff.

Minnesota coach John Hynes was recently asked what has driven Kirill Kaprizov to the best start of his five-year NHL career. “He loves the game,” he said. “He’s the first guy on, last guy off. Great practice player, unbelievable physical condition, coachable. Willing to get better and learn how he can do things better.”

Those kinds of players are always easy to celebrate, but in Kaprizov’s case that work ethic is attached to a player with 174 goals in his first 300 NHL games. Kirill The Thrill has been the rocket fuel for the Wild’s torrid start, playing well in all facets of the game as he lead the league in points.

Through 24 games, there was a 14-point gap between him and the next highest Minnesota scorer, Matt Boldy. That stat shouldn’t the sole harbinger of an MVP candidate … but it’s a very solid plank in his platform. He’s been delightfully dominant.

It brings us no joy to report that Connor Ingram, last season’s winner of the Masterton Trophy and general feel-good story with the Arizona Coyotes, landed in Salt Lake City with a thud. Through 13 games, Ingram was last in the NHL in goals saved above expected (minus-10.9, per Stathletes) and cost his team a league-worst 1.4 wins according to Evolving Hockey. His .871 save percentage was the worst among goalies with at least 13 appearances.

Again, he’s a likeable guy with an incredible backstory who just happened to be the worst goalie in the NHL statistically at the quarter mark. He’s been out recently with an upper-body injury. Here’s to Ingram turning his season around with the Hockey Club.

This goal by the Oilers defenseman had both the wizardry, and the distance traveled.

Bouchard collected the puck deep inside his own zone and then turns on the afterburners through the neutral zone to leave most of the Ottawa Senators in his wake. Thomas Chabot futilely attempt to defend him and gets toyed with, until Bouchard unleashes a pinpoint shot to complete this goal of the year candidate:

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Evan Bouchard submits his goal-of-the-year contender for Oilers

Evan Bouchard goes end-to-end before putting his shot in the top corner for an incredible solo goal for the Oilers.

It’s hard to imagine there’s another hat trick in NHL history that was completed this absurdly. Brayden Point’s third goal in a recent game against the Capitals was scored when goalie Charlie Lindgren put the puck into his own net.

OK, that description doesn’t do it justice. That happens all the time, with goalies accidentally nudging the puck over the line with their skates or misplaying the puck on a shot. Lindgren took the puck on his backhand, attempted to play it to the end boards and emphatically deposited this thing dead center into his net.

Point was the last Lightning player to have touched the puck before Lindgren was revealed as a possible double-agent, and was credited with the goal:

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This Charlie Lindgren own goal needs to be seen to be believed

Under no pressure, Charlie Lindgren somehow puts the puck into his own net to gift the Lightning a 4-3 lead over the Capitals.

Minnesota goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been celebrated in many road arenas during his final tour in the NHL. But in a recent game in Edmonton, he decided to give Oilers star Leon Draisaitl the gift of a goal at the end of the season’s most bizarre sequence.

Draisaitl sent the puck from the opposite blue line and then watched it travel through the legs of a teammate and a Minnesota defender. The bounding puck found its way to Fleury, who tried to knock it away quickly with his paddle. Instead, the puck was already rolling through his five-hole before his stick was in motion. Fleury tumbled into his own net with the puck, having given up one of the biggest clunkers of his career.

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Marc-Andre Fleury concedes a shocker of a goal

Marc-Andre Fleury goes to make the easy pad save, but the puck sneaks past the pads and crawls into the goal.

“It was dumb. I should have just make sure I stopped it first,” Fleury said after the game, who shared that his Minnesota teammates made him feel better about the gaffe by joking about it. Eventually winning the game 5-3 helped ease the embarrassment, too.

Most remorseless decision

St. Louis Blues GM Doug Armstrong does cold and calculated better than anyone. Whether it’s letting a beloved veteran walk over contract conditions or cutting bait on a season because the team isn’t playing to playoff standards, warm and fuzzies have no home in the St. Louis front office.

Just ask Drew Bannister, who was given 22 games as head coach before the Blues dumped him for Jim Montgomery, five days after the Bruins had fired him. Bannister got his first NHL head coaching job after 54 games as interim coach last season. “Having a full training camp and two-year term to put his stamp on this team, we’re looking forward to that,” Armstrong said six months ago.

In fairness, Armstrong also said the team conducted a search before committing to Bannister: “You’re just looking, like: ‘Is there any better out there? Is there something different that we’re missing?”

There was something better out there. Problem was he was the Bruins coach.

And so Armstrong became the hockey embodiment of the Distracted Boyfriend meme. He made it clear that the only reason Bannister was out was because Monty was available, giving the former Blues assistant a five-year contract. Again, he’s a general manager that’s never met a callous decision he couldn’t make. And many times, they’ve worked out.

Worst coaching move

While Luke Richardson’s decision to make Taylor Hall a healthy scratch without nary a hint to the former league MVP that it was a possibility — something Richardson acknowledged should have happened — he wasn’t the coach that submitted the wrong starting lineup before the game to earn a minor penalty.

That would be Predators coach Andrew Brunette, who submitted a lineup with Steven Stamkos in the starting lineup but started the game with Filip Forsberg in his spot. Seattle Kraken coach Dan Bylsma’s staff noticed the error. Just 43 seconds into the game, the Kraken notified the referees of a violation of NHL Rule 7, which states “no change in the starting line-up of either team as indicated in the submitted line-up, or in the playing line-up on the ice, can be made unless reviewed and approved by the referee prior to the start of the game.”

Brunette told TNT that the No. 1 was accidentally added to Forsberg’s No. 9 to make Stamkos’s No. 91. This did not make things better.

Nashville killed off the Seattle power play, but lost the game 3-0. In what’s been an embarrassing season for the Predators, this was downright comical.

Best trade condition

The Wild saved David Jiricek from a life of driving between Columbus and AHL Cleveland in perpetuity by trading for the 21-year-old Blue Jackets defenseman on Nov. 30. Among the draft picks changing sides in the deal was the Wild’s 2025 first-round pick.

Wild GM Bill Guerin doesn’t just hand out first-round picks like food samples at Costco, so he made this a conditional pick: If Minnesota’s first-round pick in the 2025 draft is one of the first five selections, the Wild will retain the pick, and transfer its 2026 first-round selection to the Blue Jackets.

Yes, that’s right: a team that was 16-4-4 on the night of the trade and tied for first overall in the NHL via points percentage wanted to ensure this Jiricek trade didn’t muck up their lottery odds if the bottom falls out on the season. You have to respect that level of underlying dread for an NHL franchise.

Biggest trend: Even-strength scoring

Scoring is actually down a tick from last season after 386 games, with 3.08 goals per game per team. That’s despite average save percentage hitting .900, which would be its lowest point since the 1995-96 season.

Where scoring is way up: even-strength play. The NHL reported that through the first quarter of the season, 77.6% of all goals were scored at evens. That’s the highest such rate in 51 seasons! One must go all the way back to 1972-73 (79%) to find the previous high mark.

This even-strength surge makes up for the fact that while power-play conversion rates remain quite high — tracking to be the fourth straight season over 20% — power play opportunities are down slightly. But again, it’s early.

Worst trend: Dismissing the Champs

In ESPN’s preseason predictions for the 2024-25 season, 11 experts picked the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup, followed by the Stars (8), Bruins (1), Maple Leafs (1) and Rangers (1). That the Toronto Maple Leafs had more support as a potential champion than the Florida Panthers speaks volumes about the respect the reigning champions still don’t seem to garner.

Maybe it’s the idea that a team won’t make the Stanley Cup Final in three consecutive seasons, even though a team that plays in the Panthers’ home state just did that. Maybe the personnel losses, including standout defenseman Brandon Montour, were seen as too deleterious. Maybe we saw those videos of Cup celebrations at the Elbo Room and wondered if these guys would ever be steady on skates again.

Yet here’s Florida, chugging along at a .620 points percentage in the Atlantic. Sam Reinhart is having an MVP season (18 goals, 16 assists). Aleksander Barkov made up for missed time to injury with 24 points in 17 games. Matthew Tkachuk is nearly a point-per-game player for an offense that’s been in the top five.

They’re not perfect, ranking 25th in goals against per game thanks to below-replacement goaltending by Sergei Bobrovsky. But he’s the best example of “it’s all about the postseason,” which might be the mantra for a team that’s gone Super Saiyan in consecutive postseasons.

Anyway, the point here is that the defending champion doesn’t always get their flowers because the odds are long on a repeat. Despite, you know, it happening twice in the last decade.

What a time to be alive during Alex Ovechkin’s first 18 games of this season.

The Capitals star scored 15 goals for the fastest offensive start of his 20-year NHL career, shattering or threatening records for a 39-year-old player in the process. He was scoring goals in a variety of ways. He looked faster and more impactful than he did last season, and especially last postseason. Ovechkin moved to within 27 goals of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time career mark (894) and in the process dramatically moved up his timeline for claiming the goal-scoring throne.

And then he broke his fibula. Scoreus interruptus.

The hockey world now waits to see if Ovechkin can continue his mastery on the other side of that injury. When he does return, Ovechkin will find a Capitals team that’s just kept rolling in his absence to the top of the Metro Division. That’s something Ovechkin wanted most during his goal-record chase: To play relevant, important hockey with a playoff-bound team. Not every star veteran can be so lucky. (Glances at Pittsburgh.)

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Ovechkin’s 2nd goal of the night gets him to 868

Alex Ovechkin nets his second goal of the game to put the Capitals up 4-1 over the Utah HC, and moves within 26 goals of tying Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record.

Most important document: “The Memo”

The New York Rangers were in a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving, and have a .587 points percentage through 23 games. But playing good isn’t playing great, and the latter is what a team needs to do when it’s chasing its first Stanley Cup since 1994.

GM Chris Drury decided to light a fire under his team by sending a memo to 31 other general managers letting them know that the Rangers were open for business on the trade market. He mentioned two players by name: Defenseman Jacob Trouba, which was no surprise given the team tried to trade him in the offseason; and winger Chris Kreider, who was a surprise given his 13 seasons with the franchise and 127 goals over the previous three seasons.

Whether Drury was seeking deals — difficult, considering six members of his group of veterans have trade protection — or looking to have that memo hit the media as a message to his team, the Rangers have yet to turn their play around, with a shakeup still looming.

Between “The Memo” and “The Letter” back in 2018, the Rangers have produced the most landscape-shifting documents by a New Yorker since Alexander Hamilton.

In fairness, GM Craig Conroy said this wasn’t going to be a rebuild but a retool for the Flames … even if a rebuild might have been the most effective path back to championship contention. For better or worse, he got what he was after with this Flames team. Calgary has a 25% chance of making the playoff cut and is in a wild-card spot in the West as of Dec. 1.

Their offense remains without much pop, ranking 28th in goals per game average and with no player with more than 15 points after 25 games. But Dustin Wolf has been a revelation in goal, with a .918 save percentage and a 2.59 goals-against average, saving 3.5 goals above expected per Stathletes while playing himself into Calder Trophy contention. Hot goalies, forever the antidote to tanking.

For two seasons, Necas had been the subject of trade rumors and questions about his offensive output, which tumbled from a career-high 71 points in 2022-23 to 53 points (and a minus-9) last season for the Carolina Hurricanes. He avoided arbitration with a two-year bridge deal worth $6.5 million annually against the cap.

GM Eric Tulsky didn’t really need any more evidence of his genius, but we can add “got one of the league’s best scorers at a discounted rate” to the list.

Necas, 26, has 37 points in 24 games, easily the best scoring pace of his career to lead the Hurricanes to near the top of the conference. Necas always had this kind of season in him. Carolina fans are relieved to finally see it happen — and happen in Raleigh.

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Martin Necas scores power-play goal vs. Stars

Martin Necas scores power-play goal vs. Stars

Is this a sophomore jinx, or the reality of playing for the current incarnation of the Chicago Blackhawks? Whatever the case, Bedard has been ineffective and frustrated in his second NHL campaign after winning the Calder Trophy last season.

He has four goals in 23 games after potting 22 goals in 68 games last season, and 17 points overall. Bedard’s defensive numbers have improved year over year, which was by design: Coach Luke Richardson moved him to the wing and had him playing with more defensively oriented linemates this season. But they need him to be Connor Bedard, not Connor Brown. Beyond his stat line, Bedard has clearly shown frustration about the way his season has played out, and what could be year-over-year regression for the Blackhawks.

Memo to Connor: Patience is a virtue in a total rebuild. Crosby had Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Jordan Staal and Marc-Andre Fleury with him the first time his Penguins made the postseason. Ovechkin had Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green as teammates when he made the playoffs for the first time. Granted, those examples were from when Bedard was around three years old, and our bones just turned into dust writing that.

Overwhelming offseason goalie acquisition: Anthony Stolarz

After posting impressive numbers as a backup goalie with Anaheim and Florida, with whom he won the Stanley Cup, Stolarz signed in Toronto as the latest attempted solution to their goaltending issues.

Through 13 games, he’s looked the part: 7-4-2, .921 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average. Stathletes has him with 3.6 goals saved above average. All that for $2.5 million against the salary cap.

Underwhelming offseason goalie acquisition: Jacob Markstrom

The Devils hit on most of their offseason additions. Brenden Dillon and Brett Pesce added veteran presence to their blue line. Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter have produced more offense than expected from depth forwards. But the centerpiece of their offseason resurrection plans hasn’t actualized quite yet.

Jacob Markstrom is 11-6-1 on the season. His .902 save percentage is just over league average. But his underlying numbers are rough: minus 6.6 goals saved above expected (Stathletes), underwater in save percentage above expected (MoneyPuck) and hasn’t added a win to the Devils in the standings (Evolving Hockey).

Again, it’s a little unfair when the bar is set at “positional savior” after poor goaltending subverted the Devils last season. There’s still plenty of time to find his footing in New Jersey, but at this point backup Jake Allen has had the better season among Devils goalies.

The first NHL Awards Watch of the season made it clear that the only thing keeping some voters from crowing Celebrini as the top rookie this season was the number of games he had played. He’s appeared in only 15 games through Saturday’s action but had scored eight goals and six assists in those games. Eventually, the sample size concern will give way to acknowledgment that Celebrini is a special player.

It couldn’t have come at a better time for the Sharks. Seeing Joe Thornton honored the other day conjured memories of this franchise’s glory years as a Stanley Cup contender, back when the Shark Tank would vibrate from the volume of its fans. San Jose might not create much chaos in the standings this season, but thanks to Celebrini, Will Smith and other players in the franchise’s next wave, the Sharks are fun again.

It’s been a while since San Jose gave the East Coast a reason to stay up late for home games. Celebrini is that reason.

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Macklin Celebrini lights the lamp for Sharks

Macklin Celebrini lights the lamp for Sharks

What’s next? Biggest storylines for next quarter of the season

1. Can the Bruins stabilize?

While Jim Montgomery appears to have the Blues pointed in the right direction, can the team that fired him find its footing under interim coach Joe Sacco? Results are mixed in the early going, but it’s clear GM Don Sweeney believes this roster can succeed based on the timing of the firing. Any turnaround needs goalie Jeremy Swayman to be at his best, and he’s finally finding his form after a disastrous first six weeks of the season.

2. The 4 Nations Face-Off Fallout.

This week, we’ll learn who made the cut for the U.S., Canada, Sweden and Finland for the first 4 Nations Face-Off tournament this February. There will be some surprises and some snubs. How will players react to missing the cut, especially with 2026 Olympic roster spots potentially on the line? Or, more to the point: How many young scorers will try and light up the Minnesota Wild because Team USA GM Bill Guerin left them off the national team roster?

3. Who is the best in the West?

As mentioned, the Jets aren’t alone at the top of the Western Conference, with the Wild and Golden Knights both within a reasonable distance of the lead. Vegas has gotten an MVP performance from Jack Eichel so far this season. Speaking of MVPs: Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid could power the Avalanche and Oilers back up the standings before the midpoint of the season. Are the Los Angeles Kings for real after a solid start? Can Dallas start playing like the Stanley Cup champ many expect them to become? What’s the Blues ceiling with Montgomery behind the bench?

The West is going to be wild.

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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7 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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8 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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