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  • Paolo Uggetti, ESPNDec 31, 2024, 08:00 AM ET

EVERY SUNDAY DURING the football season, Spencer Danielson logs onto a Zoom call.

Danielson, like many coaches, has crafted a life built around routines. It is the way the 36-year-old Boise State head coach is able to make sense of his job and still find time for himself, his family and important people in his life. This call, however, holds a special place in Danielson’s busy week. It has become an essential part of his routine and journey in his first season as the Broncos’ head football coach.

On the other end of those calls is Chris Petersen, who retired from coaching following the 2019 college football season.

“We Zoom for an hour, no matter what,” Danielson said. “He’s my mentor.”

Life changed quickly for Danielson last year. One minute he was the defensive coordinator, and the next he was being ushered into a room with Boise State athletic director Jeramiah Dickey and named the Broncos’ interim head coach after they fired Andy Avalos.

One of the first people Danielson turned to was Petersen, the former Broncos head coach who went 92-12 from 2006 to 2013 and had two undefeated seasons. Having started his career at Azusa Pacific University in Southern California and joined Boise as a graduate assistant in 2017, Danielson knew he needed help and wanted to get it from the individual responsible for the program’s greatest years.

“I called him and was like, ‘Coach, I want your help. I want to make this something consistent,'” Danielson said. “I knew that when I became a head coach, this is how I want it to be.”

After reenergizing the team and leading it to its fourth Mountain West title last season, Danielson officially got the job, but he knew that the task at hand went beyond a single season. One of the Mountain West’s premier programs had lost some of its luster and failed to secure a major bowl victory since beating Oregon in 2017. Danielson wanted to build something that would last, and Petersen became the ideal sounding board.

“I don’t see my role as solving his problems. My role is helping him think about his problems, maybe even in a different way and asking him questions so he can get to the solutions.” Petersen said. “It works pretty good because he’s so wide open to really everything and getting the best answers for his team and his program.”

The thread between Petersen and Danielson is a reflection of what Dickey and those now leading the program knew it needed: a return to the kind of cohesion Petersen fostered that made Boise State great, with an eye toward what will position it to be even better in the future.

Danielson, who is now 15-2 as head coach, has continued the program’s winning tradition while taking the team beyond where it has been before. This season, the Broncos produced a Heisman Trophy finalist in running back Ashton Jeanty, won the Mountain West for a fifth time and earned a spot in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. They lost only once — to Oregon, the undefeated No. 1 team in the country — and grabbed an improbable first-round bye in the process.

“We were going to be prepared for that success when it happened,” Dickey said. “Now, there’s a momentum that’s contagious.”

But even though the Cinderella of the late aughts is ready to embrace the underdog role yet again against No. 3 Penn State in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl tonight, the Broncos don’t want to be satisfied with just having a long-awaited seat at the table.

THERE IS SOMETHING in the Arizona air that seems to attract Boise blue.

Over the past 17 years, the Fiesta Bowl has become as much a part of the school’s lore as the bright blue field on which its football team practices and plays. It has been the site of some of the program’s greatest moments, a place where legends have been made and trick plays have been embossed in the sport’s history.

Despite hundreds of players and a handful of coaches cycling through Boise over the years, the destination in the desert keeps beckoning the Broncos back for more.

“There’s definitely some good energy there,” said Jared Zabransky, Boise State’s quarterback during its 2006 season.

Even after all these years, it doesn’t take much to unearth the chip on Zabransky’s shoulder. He recalls how the rhetoric surrounding Boise State was that its undefeated season was a farce and a product of a weak schedule.

“No one gave us a shot in that game against Oklahoma,” Zabransky said of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl against the Sooners. “But we knew what we had.”

The Broncos shocked the world, taking down a Big 12 champion despite being 7.5-point underdogs. Petersen and then-offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin called three crucial trick plays: a hook-and-ladder touchdown that tied the game in regulation, a direct snap touchdown thrown by a wide receiver in overtime and the famous “Statue of Liberty” play where Zabransky faked a pass and handed the ball to running back Ian Johnson behind his back for the winning 2-point conversion.

“Every year, they start playing clips of that play,” Zabransky said. “If it’s not the most memorable game of all time, it’s definitely in the top three.”

Three years later, Boise State made it back to the Fiesta Bowl and beat No. 3 TCU by a touchdown. Five years later, it returned to the bowl and won again, taking down No. 12 Arizona by 8 points.

As Zabransky watched the final College Football Playoff ranking come out a few weeks ago, he could only smile and accept a familiar fate. It was fitting that the inaugural 12-team playoff would not just include Boise State, but that it would send it, improbably, to yet another Fiesta Bowl as the underdog with a chance to do something the Broncos could not back in the BCS days: play for a national title.

“I never got hung up in the old days about not getting an opportunity. To me, the opportunity was could we get into BCS games,” Petersen said. “But now that the system’s changed a little bit, I think it’s great that they have struck when they’re hot. It’s tremendous.”

Zabransky knows what they did in 2007 helped showcase the foundation the program had built, centered around an identity of relentless work ethic and a quest for perfection that Petersen preached.

“It was a special time,” he said. “And I see some of that in this [year’s] squad. There’s a connection and a complete unity going in the right direction.”

Tonight, Zabransky will walk back into State Farm Stadium, this time as a fan. With Boise State set to wear the same uniform combination of white jerseys, orange pants and blue helmets it has in each Fiesta Bowl appearance, Zabransky will allow his mind to wander into the past, in hopes of trying to will the future to bend in favor of the Broncos again.

JERAMIAH DICKEY KNEW that Boise State had plateaued. It was 2021, and he had just taken the job as the Broncos’ athletic director. As he surveyed both what the Broncos had internally and the landscape of the sport beyond Idaho, Dickey knew he had to push the program forward.

The Petersen era was well in the rearview mirror. The game was changing with name, image and likeness. The Broncos’ last Fiesta Bowl win and appearance had been 10 years ago. And the sport’s most storied programs were shape-shifting via conference realignment.

“We set the bar really high with three Fiesta Bowls, and maybe the perception is we hadn’t done enough from the last Fiesta Bowl to present day,” Dickey said. “But Boise State is, in the grand scheme of things, in the infant stages of being a university and being an FBS program. So what I saw was opportunity.”

Dickey quickly identified what he referred to as “low-hanging fruit” and implemented a plan to address the issues. Boise had to pay its coaches and coordinators more, and it had to improve the fan experience, the stadium and the team’s facilities, too. It had to set up an infrastructure for large donations and create a vision that Broncos fans could buy in to, literally and figuratively.

“We were living too much in the past and not enough in the present and future,” Dickey said. “And this is an industry, as soon as you stop, you die a slow death. So we had to mature as a program and grow up really quickly.”

The former Baylor administrator quickly instituted a new mentality among his staff and turned it into the department’s mantra: “What’s next?” It’s also the name of the fundraising initiative Dickey started.

“The job that has been done by Jeremiah has been amazing,” Petersen said. “I think sometimes people don’t understand really how hard that is to do at a place like Boise, to be able to then compete on a national stage.”

For Dickey, this has been a year of reaping. Not only are the Broncos competing in the CFP, but they are set to break ground Saturday on a north end zone renovation. They have added new video boards as well as a ticket sales team that has broken program revenue and attendance records. The capital campaign is ongoing with a $150 million goal for athletics, and in October, Boise State announced it would be moving to the new Pac-12 conference in 2026.

“If I can make a decision that is going to drastically impact my resources and revenues that I can then invest back into the department, to me it was a no-brainer,” Dickey said of the move. “Now, time will tell and ultimately I’ll be judged off that, but I’m always going to bet on myself. I’m always going to bet on our team and I’m going to bet on our community.”

Since the move to the Pac-12 was announced, Dickey has seen the response materialize in sold-out season tickets for basketball and six sold-out football games this season. It helps, of course, that the Broncos are in the playoff, but Dickey is adamant that the results are secondary.

“A lot of the success you’re seeing in the present day started four years ago,” Dickey said. “It all started before we knew what this season would be. So whether the CFP changed or not, we were always looking forward to how to better position ourselves. And sometimes you get lucky.”

DANIELSON HAD 45 minutes to prepare his speech. He had just been named the Broncos’ interim coach and had to deliver a message to the team. He knew that Avalos’ firing meant players could enter the portal at will. He knew coaches on the staff were thinking about where they’d end up once a new coach was hired.

So, he simply asked for two weeks.

“At that point, everything is telling you to look out for yourself,” Danielson said. “So I told them, I don’t know what’s after these two weeks. I don’t know what my future looks like, your future, but I do know we got a great group of seniors that have been through a lot: COVID, multiple head coaches, tough seasons. We owe it to each other, and we owe it to our team to finish these next two weeks.”

With the football team staring at its first losing season since 1997 (a year after the program moved up to Division I), former players such as Zabransky could tell, even from the outside, that something was wrong.

“I love Andy, but when you get to a place where things just aren’t working and you press and press again, there has to be a change,” Zabransky said.

Dickey took the temperature of the situation and made what he believed was a necessary move: firing Avalos and installing Danielson as interim coach. In retrospect, Dickey’s move now looks like a stroke of genius, but even he admits that he didn’t go into the process expecting to make Danielson the permanent head coach.

But players and coaches bought into Danielson’s message, won their remaining two games and turned what was a slim chance into another conference title. Over the course of those two weeks, Dickey saw how Danielson’s approach had, even in such short order, reinjected Boise with the kind of energy the program had been missing.

“The guy just didn’t have bad days,” Dickey said of Danielson. “I just saw [him] embrace the challenge and show up differently than I had seen a coach show up, and I saw a team respond at a level I had not seen.”

Initially, Petersen delivered a blunt message to Danielson: “You’re not going to get the job.” But Petersen noticed that instead of focusing on securing the position, Danielson turned the focus toward the players. Once he secured the job, Danielson, with Petersen’s help, knew he wanted his approach to be unique. He knew Boise State’s competitive advantage couldn’t be found inside a playbook or a checkbook.

“We’ve got to be different, we’ve got to be efficient and specific,” Danielson said. “Maybe we can’t pay this or that. Let’s capitalize on what we do better than anybody else, which is development, which is taking care of our players. We’re involved in every part of our players’ lives.”

In some ways, it’s hard to view this season as a proof of concept. The Broncos had a once-in-a-lifetime player in Jeanty who had a once-in-a-lifetime season. But Dickey and Danielson are focused on ensuring that Boise is able to not just recruit and develop the next Jeanty, but that it’s able to keep him. Danielson isn’t naive; he wants players who want to be at Boise State, or as Petersen used to call them, “OKGs — our kind of guys.” But he knows the right infrastructure has to be in place, too.

“Jeramiah asks me, ‘What do you need to be one of the best teams in the country consistently and not just a flash in the pan? How do we do this consistently?'” Danielson said. “And that’s funding. There is support here. This is one of the top growing cities in the country. There is money here bringing it in to support our players, not only financially, but in all facets of their life as college football becomes even more professionalized.”

Over the past 12 months, Danielson’s message to his staff has been a consistent one that has bore out in the 12 wins the team has compiled this season.

“We have more than enough to succeed here,” Danielson tells them. “We have enough at Boise State.”

On Dec. 6, Boise’s blue field was swarmed by a tsunami of fans wearing blue. The chants of “Heisman” for Jeanty filled the stadium. A portion of the goal posts even ended up in the nearby Boise River.

As the clock hit zero and the program won its second straight Mountain West Championship over UNLV, punching its ticket to the College Football Playoff, a smiling Petersen, wearing a Broncos hat, stood on the field and soaked it all in. He doesn’t get to many college football games these days, working as an in-studio analyst for Fox Sports, and he doesn’t remember the last time he was in Boise for a game on “the blue” either.

“In some ways it felt like, boy, that was a long time ago that I was there, but on the other hand, it felt like it was just yesterday,” Petersen said. “Just being in that stadium with those awesome fans … that place is underrated.”

Few know that sentiment better than Dirk Koetter. The current offensive coordinator for the Broncos left Oregon in 1998 to become Boise’s head coach before Petersen. It was the beginning of what would be the program’s golden era, but Koetter remembers how he felt one particular day during that year as he stood inside a room at the local hotel and watched snow blanket the city while handling an off-the-field situation in which one of his players stole books from a bookstore.

“I was thinking to myself, ‘Why did I leave Eugene, Oregon, to come to this?'” Koetter said. “That press box wasn’t there. This theater wasn’t here. That indoor [field] wasn’t there. Boise State was probably averaging about 19,000 fans a game.”

Koetter kept at it. The next season, the Broncos went 9-3, won their conference title and beat Louisville in their bowl game. They went on to win four bowl games in a row and lose no more than three times in a season through the 2004 season under Dan Hawkins (53-11), a year before Petersen became the head coach and took the team to another level. When Petersen left for Washington, his offensive coordinator, Bryan Harsin, ensured the winning continued, going 69-19 over the next seven seasons.

“I’m very proud of where this program has gone and how we’ve been able to keep the chain of coaches and of the culture in this program,” Koetter said. “To be in this playoff, I think it speaks volumes about the administration here, the fans here, the players here and the coaches here.”

Koetter has come full circle by ushering this season’s offense to success. After 42 years of coaching at the college level and in the NFL, this might be Koetter’s last run. At his pre-Fiesta Bowl news conference last week, Koetter acknowledged that it could be his last news conference ever.

“I hope it’s not,” Koetter said. “I hope we keep playing.”

Boise State’s season isn’t over; another Fiesta Bowl where the odds (Penn State is favored by 10.5 points on ESPN BET) are against its favor awaits. And as Koetter and every other coach and player who has worn the Boise blue since the turn of the century knows, it would be foolish to count the Broncos out in the desert.

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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6 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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7 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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