AL betting 2025 preview: Win totals and post-season odds for each team
The 2025 MLB season begins on March 18, with the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers playing a pair of games in Tokyo against the Chicago Cubs. For nearly everybody else, including 15 out of the 16 American League teams, Opening Day arrives on March 27. The Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays will play the first of their 162 games on March 28.
While each team’s season might not start at exactly the same time, every team does start with a clean slate. Nobody is in first place. Nobody is in last place. We won’t have a truly clear picture of which teams will end up making it to baseball’s postseason for several months. Still, that doesn’t mean we have no idea how the season might play out.
ESPN BET has posted win totals and postseason odds for the upcoming season. In the AL, the New York Yankees begin as favorites to win the most games (93.5) as well as make it to the World Series (+800). At the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago White Sox (50.5 wins) are the biggest long shot (+40000) to end up celebrating with champagne this fall.
Here are all of the odds for the AL teams and our thoughts on some potential wagers.
Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET. 
AL East
New York Yankees: 2024 record, 94-68
2025 win total: 93.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+275), World Series (+800)
UNDER 93.5 wins: I like the under because you like the over. No, that’s not me being a jerk. It’s simply understanding how books set lines. The Yankees are good, and everyone knows it. People like to bet overs on good teams, and books know it. That’s why they can set the line a couple of wins too high — they know people will bet it anyway. At least, most people will. You’re now a sharp, and we’re betting the under. Welcome to the club. — Carty
Baltimore Orioles: 2024 record, 91-71
2025 win total: 89.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+220), ALCS (+500), World Series (+1200)
UNDER 89.5 wins: Welcome to today’s matinee showing of “Bet the Good Team’s Under 2: Electric Bugaloo.” Baltimore’s reputation is good, but it only won 1.5 more games last year than this line, and it lost more than they added this winter — most notably, ace Corbin Burnes is now in Arizona. The public is dreaming on breakouts from young players such as Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, but the likelihood of prospects breaking out is always lower than the public wants to believe. My prediction system (THE BAT X) sees 82.5 wins for the Orioles. — Carty
Boston Red Sox: 2024 record, 81-81
2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+475), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+2500)
OVER 84.5 wins: Thanks, Derek — you had to leave me to talk about the team I’ve been following since 1971. There was a solid stretch from 2001 to about six years ago when you could usually guarantee profit simply by betting on both the Red Sox and Patriots to win everything. No crunching of numbers was required. In 2025, that’s no longer the case. My system has the Red Sox falling short of 84.5 wins, but I also don’t think they’re a finished product. Betting is serious, but there should be an element of entertainment, so consider this my only “heart over head” call. — Zola
Tampa Bay Rays: 2024 record, 80-82
2025 win total: 80.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+800), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+5000)
UNDER 80.5 wins: With everyone else in the AL East getting better (at least on paper), the Rays will have a tough time matching last season’s record. Yes, their pitching should be improved with several previously injured hurlers returning, but the chance they all regain their prior form is slim. They’re built to win through pitching and strong defense, but the Rays face an uphill battle with a road-heavy early schedule. Plus, while their temporary home (George M. Steinbrenner Field) shares the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, it’s much hotter in the Sunshine State. Expect the venue to favor hitting. Sure, Rays batters will benefit, but probably not as much as their pitchers will suffer. — Zola
Toronto Blue Jays: 2024 record, 74-88
2025 win total: 76.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+1500), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+6000)
OVER 76.5 wins: I’ll feel better about this if the Blue Jays add one more bat, but at least they’ve upgraded their defense with Andres Gimenez and fortified their bullpen while also adding SP Max Scherzer. Toronto’s win total line was set for 2.5 wins more last season’s result, and my calculations peg the Blue Jays to collect 80 wins. — Zola
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians: 2024 record, 92-69
2025 win total: 83.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+230), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)
UNDER 83.5 wins: The Guardians in 2024 are just like the Rangers from 2023 — a great story and an impressive season, but it just doesn’t look sustainable. Last year, Texas regressed by 12 wins and went under its Vegas win total by 11.5. When multiple players have career seasons all at once, odds are that several of them will fall back down to the earth the next year. THE BAT X doesn’t see Cleveland even being a .500 team in the average scenario. — Carty
Kansas City Royals: 2024 record, 86-76
2025 win total: 82.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+340), ALCS (+1800), World Series (+4000)
Royals WIN the division: As Derek explained, the wins line involves the books adjusting to the market. Even so, the Guardians, Tigers and Twins are all set at 83.5 with the Royals at 82.5. One of these teams has to win the division — sorry, Chicago — and when presented with what is essentially a four-way toss-up, I’ll back the club with the best odds. It also helps that my own numbers have the Royals ending up with the most wins in the AL Central. — Zola
Detroit Tigers: 2024 record, 86-76
2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+4000)
OVER 83.5 wins: By the numbers, this is my toughest call, with my projections calling for 84 wins out of Motown. Signing Jack Flaherty helped, but it also affected the line. This is a matter of trusting my system, which is optimistic toward youngsters Colt Keith, Riley Greene and Parker Meadows continuing to improve, along with being impressed with how manager A.J. Hinch manages the back end of his rotation and bullpen. — Zola
Minnesota Twins: 2024 record, 82-80
2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+3000)
UNDER 83.5 wins: The books expect the Twins to add a win or two to last season’s total, a year in which they lost just one game to the White Sox. Sure, Kansas City lost just one game to the White Sox as well, but the Royals improved while the Twins might have taken a step back. My numbers suggest Minnesota will be challenged to even match last season’s record, so I certainly can’t recommend betting on a better 2025. — Zola
Chicago White Sox: 2024 record, 41-121
2025 win total: 50.5 (O -130/U Even)
Odds to win: Division (+10000), ALCS (+20000), World Series (+40000)
OVER 50.5 wins: The White Sox are coming off a historically bad season. Sportsbooks are counting on bettors to be too chicken to bet the over here, regardless of the number. Compare this franchise to the Athletics, who won 50 games in 2023 and had a line of 56.5 last year. THE BAT X projected them for 67 wins and they ultimately won 69. At the time, I thought a double-digit win gap between the line and the projection was ridiculous — until I saw THE BAT X project 66 wins for the 2025 White Sox. This is the largest projected gap I’ve ever seen, and it’s easily the most +EV bet on the board. Yes, it’s gross. But that’s the reason you should bet it and not a reason to avoid it. — Carty.
AL West
Houston Astros: 2024 record, 88-73
2025 win total: 87.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+550), World Series (+1200)
UNDER 87.5 wins: While I love the fact that the Astros signed Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, who has the ideal swing to become intimate with the Crawford Boxes, all of Houston’s starting outfielders should be backups on a good team — and playing Jose Altuve in left field isn’t the answer. The front end of the team’s rotation is solid, but after that things get dicey. I’m comfortable taking the under here on a team I peg for 85 wins. — Zola
Seattle Mariners: 2024 record, 85-77
2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)
Mariners WIN the division: My projected numbers have the Mariners and Rangers finishing tied atop the AL West with 86 wins each. However, if you expressed their most likely outcomes as a range, Seattle would settle in at 85-87 wins, while Texas checks in between 84-88. I lean toward the safer play with less variance, and besides, the odds for the Mariners to win the division pay a little more than the Rangers’. — Zola
Texas Rangers: 2024 record, 78-84
2025 win total: 85.5 (O -110/U -120)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)
Rangers WIN the division: If there’s one thing we can count on in betting markets, it’s an overreaction to the previous season. Texas won the World Series in 2023 and was an easy under bet last year. Now, after finishing below .500, it is primed to regress the other way. Look, Houston got worse over the winter and THE BAT X projects it for five fewer wins than Texas, which is the most likely team to win the division at 47.2%. A fair line would be +112, so we’re looking at clear value here. — Carty
Athletics: 2024 record, 69-93
2025 win total: 70.5 (O -110/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)
OVER 70.5 wins: My process for projecting win totals involves plugging a roster’s hitting and pitching wOBA into Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation formula. The results typically end up being more bunched than the sportsbooks’ lines, with weaker teams tending to have higher win totals and better teams garnering lower win totals. Some of the differences are market adjustments by bookmakers, but most are driven by regression, which is central to projection theory. That helps to explain my 77 win projection for the Athletics, who should also benefit from playing in Sacramento, where it is up to 20 degrees warmer than Oakland. — Zola
Los Angeles Angels: 2024 record, 63-99
2025 win total: 71.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)
OVER 71.5 wins: The Angels are a bad team, but they’ve underperformed the talent on their roster for the past couple of seasons and have been hit harder by injuries than normal variance would project. They certainly added a few wins this offseason, and a healthy Mike Trout puts them on track to beat this number, perhaps by as many as seven games. — Carty
LAS COLINAS, Texas — Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork told leaders of the College Football Playoff on Tuesday that the sport’s calendar needs to change, and it’s a critical component as they consider the playoff’s future format.
Bjork, just months removed from watching his Buckeyes win the national title, attended a portion of the annual CFP spring meetings to provide feedback with the three other athletic directors who participated in semifinals and hosted first-round games: Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte, Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who is part of the CFP’s management committee along with the 10 FBS commissioners.
Bjork said CFP executive director Rich Clark asked if he had one major point he wanted to make before leaving.
“We’ve had so many disruptions over the last five-plus years that I think the time is now to not be reactive, be proactive,” Bjork told ESPN. “When we had this setting here with the commissioners, our job was to provide feedback on what was it like to go through the 12-team playoff … but it all gets impacted by the calendar. I felt it was important to lay that out with everyone in the room to say, separate from the CFP process, if we don’t fix our calendar as an industry, then we’re going to continue to have unintended consequences.”
Bjork shared with the commissioners the perspective of a school trying to win a national title while classes had begun Jan. 6. Ohio State’s academic advisers traveled with the team to the semifinal and national title game, he said, but some athletes missed class and the school had to apply for waivers around the countable athletically related activities, which limits schools to 20 hours of practice time while classes are in session.
“When you don’t have class, there is no limit to CARA hours,” he said, noting that Texas started classes later. “It created some disadvantages. It all goes back to what’s countable CARA hours, NCAA structure. The portal is the next big conversation after the House case and truly what kind of rules can we set? Will we have the authority around transfer rules to set some parameters?”
Bjork said the transfer portal needs to move to a 10-day period in May for fall sports because if the NCAA House settlement is approved, most of the players are going to be signing revenue share agreements with the schools from July 1 to June 30.
“May makes the most sense” to align player contracts with the portal, Bjork said.
Bjork, who said he’s on the implementation committee for the House settlement, said “if everyone follows the structure, it’s going to be a great structure.”
“And everyone has to follow the rules,” he said, “and agree that this is the structure, which we have to. If we don’t do that, then what good is the settlement?”
CLEVELAND — Guardians center fielder Lane Thomas was placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a bruised right wrist sustained when he got hit by a pitch two weeks ago.
The move is retroactive to April 20.
Thomas, who was a postseason star for Cleveland in 2024, was struck on the wrist in the home opener against the Chicago White Sox on April 8. He has played in five games since, including Sunday at Pittsburgh.
Thomas said his wrist initially responded to treatment, but it began troubling him after he played over the weekend.
“I got that first jam shot base hit when I played that first day and it just kind of swelled up after that,” Thomas said. “I kind of lost some range of motion, so they just thought the best option was to try and get all that out of there and not go through that same cycle again.”
Manager Stephen Vogt hopes putting Thomas on the IL will give him time to let the injury heal correctly.
“Let’s take eight to 10 days, knock this thing out so that it’s behind us for the rest of the year,” Vogt said. “Out of fairness for him to be able to be himself and not wonder how’s it going to feel today when I wake up. We decided that with Lane, that this was the best course of action.”
Thomas has twice broken the same wrist after being hit by pitches. He went 2 for 15 with five strikeouts in five games after getting hit.
The Guardians acquired Thomas, 29, in a July trade with Washington. He struggled for much of the regular season before having his biggest moments with Cleveland in October.
Thomas hit two homers in the AL Division Series against Detroit, connecting for a grand slam in Game 5 off Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal to help the Guardians advance.
To replace Thomas, the club selected the contract of infielder Will Wilson from Triple-A Columbus. The Guardians also transferred right-hander Trevor Stephan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list.
Wilson was batting .324 for the Columbus Clippers with six homers and 18 RBIs in 18 games. He homered in three of his past four games.
This is the 26-year-old’s first promotion to the majors. He’s a former first-round pick of the Los Angeles Angels, who traded him to San Francisco in 2019. Cleveland acquired Wilson in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft this past offseason.
CLEVELAND — New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton took batting practice with teammates Tuesday as he continues to recover from elbow issues.
Stanton took swings before the game at Progressive Field as the Yankees prepared for the middle game of their series against the Cleveland Guardians.
While Stanton has been working behind the scenes, this was the first time he has taken outdoor batting practice. Manager Aaron Boone did not mention anything about Stanton’s progress during his pregame availability.
Stanton, 35, has been dealing with tendinitis in both elbows, with the ailment known as “tennis elbow” shutting him down since spring training. He has said his elbows also bothered him last season and that it’s a matter of pain tolerance.
The team does not have a timetable for Stanton’s return to their lineup. It’s likely he’ll have to go on a minor league rehab assignment before he’s ready to play in major league games.
Stanton is in his eighth season with New York. Last season, he hit 27 homers and drove in 72 runs in 114 games, and in the postseason, he was among the club’s top hitters. As the Yankees advanced to the World Series, he finished with 15 hits, including seven home runs, and 16 RBIs.
Stanton has 429 homers in 15 seasons with the Yankees and Marlins.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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