AL betting 2025 preview: Win totals and post-season odds for each team

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11 hours ago

February 13, 2025

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Feb 12, 2025, 12:46 PM ET

The 2025 MLB season begins on March 18, with the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers playing a pair of games in Tokyo against the Chicago Cubs. For nearly everybody else, including 15 out of the 16 American League teams, Opening Day arrives on March 27. The Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays will play the first of their 162 games on March 28.

While each team’s season might not start at exactly the same time, every team does start with a clean slate. Nobody is in first place. Nobody is in last place. We won’t have a truly clear picture of which teams will end up making it to baseball’s postseason for several months. Still, that doesn’t mean we have no idea how the season might play out.

ESPN BET has posted win totals and postseason odds for the upcoming season. In the AL, the New York Yankees begin as favorites to win the most games (93.5) as well as make it to the World Series (+800). At the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago White Sox (50.5 wins) are the biggest long shot (+40000) to end up celebrating with champagne this fall.

Here are all of the odds for the AL teams and our thoughts on some potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

AL East

New York Yankees: 2024 record, 94-68

2025 win total: 93.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+275), World Series (+800)

UNDER 93.5 wins: I like the under because you like the over. No, that’s not me being a jerk. It’s simply understanding how books set lines. The Yankees are good, and everyone knows it. People like to bet overs on good teams, and books know it. That’s why they can set the line a couple of wins too high — they know people will bet it anyway. At least, most people will. You’re now a sharp, and we’re betting the under. Welcome to the club. — Carty

Baltimore Orioles: 2024 record, 91-71

2025 win total: 89.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+220), ALCS (+500), World Series (+1200)

UNDER 89.5 wins: Welcome to today’s matinee showing of “Bet the Good Team’s Under 2: Electric Bugaloo.” Baltimore’s reputation is good, but it only won 1.5 more games last year than this line, and it lost more than they added this winter — most notably, ace Corbin Burnes is now in Arizona. The public is dreaming on breakouts from young players such as Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, but the likelihood of prospects breaking out is always lower than the public wants to believe. My prediction system (THE BAT X) sees 82.5 wins for the Orioles. — Carty

Boston Red Sox: 2024 record, 81-81

2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+475), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+2500)

OVER 84.5 wins: Thanks, Derek — you had to leave me to talk about the team I’ve been following since 1971. There was a solid stretch from 2001 to about six years ago when you could usually guarantee profit simply by betting on both the Red Sox and Patriots to win everything. No crunching of numbers was required. In 2025, that’s no longer the case. My system has the Red Sox falling short of 84.5 wins, but I also don’t think they’re a finished product. Betting is serious, but there should be an element of entertainment, so consider this my only “heart over head” call. — Zola

Tampa Bay Rays: 2024 record, 80-82

2025 win total: 80.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+800), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+5000)

UNDER 80.5 wins: With everyone else in the AL East getting better (at least on paper), the Rays will have a tough time matching last season’s record. Yes, their pitching should be improved with several previously injured hurlers returning, but the chance they all regain their prior form is slim. They’re built to win through pitching and strong defense, but the Rays face an uphill battle with a road-heavy early schedule. Plus, while their temporary home (George M. Steinbrenner Field) shares the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, it’s much hotter in the Sunshine State. Expect the venue to favor hitting. Sure, Rays batters will benefit, but probably not as much as their pitchers will suffer. — Zola

Toronto Blue Jays: 2024 record, 74-88

2025 win total: 76.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+1500), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+6000)

OVER 76.5 wins: I’ll feel better about this if the Blue Jays add one more bat, but at least they’ve upgraded their defense with Andres Gimenez and fortified their bullpen while also adding SP Max Scherzer. Toronto’s win total line was set for 2.5 wins more last season’s result, and my calculations peg the Blue Jays to collect 80 wins. — Zola

AL Central

Cleveland Guardians: 2024 record, 92-69

2025 win total: 83.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+230), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)

UNDER 83.5 wins: The Guardians in 2024 are just like the Rangers from 2023 — a great story and an impressive season, but it just doesn’t look sustainable. Last year, Texas regressed by 12 wins and went under its Vegas win total by 11.5. When multiple players have career seasons all at once, odds are that several of them will fall back down to the earth the next year. THE BAT X doesn’t see Cleveland even being a .500 team in the average scenario. — Carty

Kansas City Royals: 2024 record, 86-76

2025 win total: 82.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+340), ALCS (+1800), World Series (+4000)

Royals WIN the division: As Derek explained, the wins line involves the books adjusting to the market. Even so, the Guardians, Tigers and Twins are all set at 83.5 with the Royals at 82.5. One of these teams has to win the division — sorry, Chicago — and when presented with what is essentially a four-way toss-up, I’ll back the club with the best odds. It also helps that my own numbers have the Royals ending up with the most wins in the AL Central. — Zola

Detroit Tigers: 2024 record, 86-76

2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+4000)

OVER 83.5 wins: By the numbers, this is my toughest call, with my projections calling for 84 wins out of Motown. Signing Jack Flaherty helped, but it also affected the line. This is a matter of trusting my system, which is optimistic toward youngsters Colt Keith, Riley Greene and Parker Meadows continuing to improve, along with being impressed with how manager A.J. Hinch manages the back end of his rotation and bullpen. — Zola

Minnesota Twins: 2024 record, 82-80

2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+3000)

UNDER 83.5 wins: The books expect the Twins to add a win or two to last season’s total, a year in which they lost just one game to the White Sox. Sure, Kansas City lost just one game to the White Sox as well, but the Royals improved while the Twins might have taken a step back. My numbers suggest Minnesota will be challenged to even match last season’s record, so I certainly can’t recommend betting on a better 2025. — Zola

Chicago White Sox: 2024 record, 41-121

2025 win total: 50.5 (O -130/U Even)
Odds to win: Division (+10000), ALCS (+20000), World Series (+40000)

OVER 50.5 wins: The White Sox are coming off a historically bad season. Sportsbooks are counting on bettors to be too chicken to bet the over here, regardless of the number. Compare this franchise to the Athletics, who won 50 games in 2023 and had a line of 56.5 last year. THE BAT X projected them for 67 wins and they ultimately won 69. At the time, I thought a double-digit win gap between the line and the projection was ridiculous — until I saw THE BAT X project 66 wins for the 2025 White Sox. This is the largest projected gap I’ve ever seen, and it’s easily the most +EV bet on the board. Yes, it’s gross. But that’s the reason you should bet it and not a reason to avoid it. — Carty.

AL West

Houston Astros: 2024 record, 88-73

2025 win total: 87.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+550), World Series (+1200)

UNDER 87.5 wins: While I love the fact that the Astros signed Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, who has the ideal swing to become intimate with the Crawford Boxes, all of Houston’s starting outfielders should be backups on a good team — and playing Jose Altuve in left field isn’t the answer. The front end of the team’s rotation is solid, but after that things get dicey. I’m comfortable taking the under here on a team I peg for 85 wins. — Zola

Seattle Mariners: 2024 record, 85-77

2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)

Mariners WIN the division: My projected numbers have the Mariners and Rangers finishing tied atop the AL West with 86 wins each. However, if you expressed their most likely outcomes as a range, Seattle would settle in at 85-87 wins, while Texas checks in between 84-88. I lean toward the safer play with less variance, and besides, the odds for the Mariners to win the division pay a little more than the Rangers’. — Zola

Texas Rangers: 2024 record, 78-84

2025 win total: 85.5 (O -110/U -120)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)

Rangers WIN the division: If there’s one thing we can count on in betting markets, it’s an overreaction to the previous season. Texas won the World Series in 2023 and was an easy under bet last year. Now, after finishing below .500, it is primed to regress the other way. Look, Houston got worse over the winter and THE BAT X projects it for five fewer wins than Texas, which is the most likely team to win the division at 47.2%. A fair line would be +112, so we’re looking at clear value here. — Carty

Athletics: 2024 record, 69-93

2025 win total: 70.5 (O -110/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)

OVER 70.5 wins: My process for projecting win totals involves plugging a roster’s hitting and pitching wOBA into Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation formula. The results typically end up being more bunched than the sportsbooks’ lines, with weaker teams tending to have higher win totals and better teams garnering lower win totals. Some of the differences are market adjustments by bookmakers, but most are driven by regression, which is central to projection theory. That helps to explain my 77 win projection for the Athletics, who should also benefit from playing in Sacramento, where it is up to 20 degrees warmer than Oakland. — Zola

Los Angeles Angels: 2024 record, 63-99

2025 win total: 71.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)

OVER 71.5 wins: The Angels are a bad team, but they’ve underperformed the talent on their roster for the past couple of seasons and have been hit harder by injuries than normal variance would project. They certainly added a few wins this offseason, and a healthy Mike Trout puts them on track to beat this number, perhaps by as many as seven games. — Carty

Sports

World Cup of Hockey to return in February 2028

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2 hours ago

February 13, 2025

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World Cup of Hockey to return in February 2028

MONTREAL — The World Cup of Hockey is returning beginning in February 2028, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman announced Wednesday in a joint news conference with NHLPA executive director Marty Walsh.

Both sides reiterated that they are committed to sending NHL players to the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan, meaning hockey will return to a cadence of best-on-best international competition every two years — with Bettman calling this month’s 4 Nations Face-Off between the U.S., Canada, Finland and Sweden “a sampler.”

NHL players have not competed in an Olympic Games since 2014. The last World Cup of Hockey was in 2016. Since then, many of the league’s top stars, including Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, have advocated for the opportunity to represent their countries in the prime of their careers.

“We couldn’t be more excited about making a reality: Olympics, World Cups, Olympics, World Cups on a regular schedule of the best hockey players in the world representing their countries,” Bettman said. “We know the full blown World Cup is going to be sensational.”

Bettman said the league will begin accepting bids on host locations for World Cup of Hockey 2028 soon, and opened the door for European cities to make pitches.

The tournament’s format has yet to be determined, but Bettman anticipates at least eight teams. Unlike the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, there will not be “melded teams” such as Team Europe or a U-23 Team North America, but rather each team will consist of players from one country.

The IIHF is not involved in the tournament, Bettman confirmed, meaning it will be an NHL player-only event and federations cannot tap players competing in European leagues.

The biggest remaining question is whether Russia will be able to field a team. Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the country has been banned from international play in all age categories by the IIHF. Earlier this month, the NHL and IIHF extended that ban through 2025-26, citing security concerns.

The NHL made a similar ruling for the 4 Nations Face-Off, excluding a Russia team that would have fielded some of the league’s top stars such as Alex Ovechkin, Nikita Kucherov, Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin.

Walsh said Russian players have told him they are passionate about returning to the world stage. He also said he has not heard of any other players who said they would not participate in an event if Russia were involved.

“I’d love to see our Russian players playing in these tournaments. Again, they’re incredible hockey players,” Walsh said. “The issues are political and it is not political as far as the NHLPA, it’s the world politics that we have to get through and I’m hoping that as we get closer to the Olympics, as we get closer to the World Cup, we will start seeing the Russian athletes back in the competition.”

NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told ESPN earlier this season that on the issue of Russia, the NHL often follows the lead and stays aligned with other international governing bodies. When asked what it would take for Russia to be involved in future events, Daly said: “I think the current status quo has to change and it has to change in a material way.”

The joint World Cup of Hockey announcement was yet another mark of an improved relationship between the NHL and NHLPA, which will soon begin formal negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement.

The current CBA expires in September 2026, but Bettman said he remains “more than optimistic” that there are not major issues to iron out, and that a new agreement could be announced as soon as this summer.

“All international competition that we do with NHL players is a joint collaboration and partnership with the Players Association,” Bettman said. “We now have a partner since Marty has been at the Players Association that has put us in a position collectively to execute these types of events, make these decisions for the long term. That hasn’t always been the case.”

Sports

Canada tops Sweden in thrilling 4 Nations opener

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2 hours ago

February 13, 2025

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Canada tops Sweden in thrilling 4 Nations opener

Associated Press

Feb 12, 2025, 11:54 PM ET

MONTREAL — Sidney Crosby got a sellout crowd roaring with a no-look pass to Nathan MacKinnon for a slam dunk power-play goal in the first minute. Then he sent Canada fans home happy by assisting on Mitch Marner‘s overtime winner.

Sid’s not a kid anymore, but he showed he’s still got it at 37, getting three assists to beat Sweden 4-3 on Wednesday night in a thrilling opener of the 4 Nations Face-Off. It was just the latest masterclass by Crosby, a two-time Olympic champion who brought his best to the return of elite international competition featuring the NHL’s top players.

“It’s no coincidence is record of when he’s wearing a Canadian jersey,” coach Jon Cooper said. “It’s not a fluke. He will go down as the greatest player to ever represent his country. If not, he’s going to be on the Mount Rushmore, for sure, of people that have thrown the Canadian jersey on.”

Fans who chanted the name of Hall of Famer Mario Lemieux during a pregame ceremony shifted to “Crosby! Crosby!” throughout the night and after he set up Marner’s goal 6:06 into 3-on-3 OT.

“As someone who loves to play in environments like that, I grew up a Montreal Canadiens fan, and to have an ovation like that here was really special and something I’ll always remember,” Crosby said.

Crosby and Connor McDavid were among the top skaters on the ice throughout. McDavid picked up the secondary assist on MacKinnon’s goal and was buzzing all over around Swedish defenders.

Brad Marchand also scored for Canada to incite cheers at the home arena of the Canadiens, where the Boston Bruins captain is far more used to being the villain. Of course there were a few boos when his name was announced, too, to keep with tradition.

And Marner, also usually not loved in Montreal because he plays for the rival Toronto Maple Leafs, got to bask in cheers — and the fact that his childhood idol set up the biggest goal of his career.

“You tell 13-year-old Mitch that he scored an overtime goal assisted by Sidney Crosby, the guy he looked up to since day one, it’s pretty crazy,” Marner said. “I really just tried to enjoy the moment after. The building was rocking, and it was nice to have them cheering for me instead of against me.”

Canada at times controlled the play, but goaltender Jordan Binnington struggled at times. Binnington, who had 23 saves, was beaten clean in the second by Jonas Brodin and in the third by Adrian Kempe. He was less at fault on the tying goal to Joel Eriksson Ek with 11 minutes left in regulation and made a spectacular sliding save to deny Mika Zibanejad early in overtime.

Sweden got some big saves in net from Filip Gustavsson, who stopped 24 of the 28 shots he faced and denied MacKinnon four times in OT in a hard-luck loss for the Swedes.

“In overtime there, he had some really good saves, even the whole game,” Brodin said. “He’s an unbelievable goalie and happy for him. He was great for us.”

Winning the first of three round-robin games did come at a cost for Canada, which lost defenseman Shea Theodore to a right wrist or forearm injury in the second period. Cooper said Theodore is out for the rest of the tournament, and Travis Sanheim figures to slot in after being a healthy scratch against Sweden.

That Canada was able to play the remainder of a game that lasted over 65 minutes down to five D-men was a testament to the others at the position.

“In a game like that at that pace, having five defensemen up and down the ice, I can’t say enough about what those guys did right till the end,” Binnington said. “It’s really tough to see Shea go down like that, but it happened and sometimes things happen like that and it’s how you handle it.”

The United States faces Finland in each team’s first 4 Nations game on Thursday night.

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Team USA tabs Hellebuyck as starting goalie

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2 hours ago

February 13, 2025

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Team USA tabs Hellebuyck as starting goalie

Kristen ShiltonFeb 12, 2025, 03:21 PM ET
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MONTREAL — Connor Hellebuyck will start for Team USA when they begin play at the 4 Nations Face-Off against Finland on Thursday.

The United States officially named Hellebuyck their No. 1 following Wednesday’s practice — a mammoth session that lasted well over an hour.

Hellebuyck was projected to get the call in net, with Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman vying for roles as his backup. The Winnipeg Jets goaltender is the NHL’s reigning Vezina Trophy winner and on track to potentially earn a second straight — and third overall — trophy on the strength of another excellent campaign.

Hellebuyck leads the NHL in wins — with a 34-7-2 record on the season — and paces NHL starters with a .925 save percentage and 2.06 goals-against average. His elite play has been a decisive factor in Winnipeg’s emergence as the NHL’s top team with 81 points and a 39-14-3 record going into the 4 Nations break.

When the U.S. squares off with Finland, it will be Juuse Saros opposite Hellebuyk in net. Finnish coach Antti Pennanen confirmed Saros would get the call after Wednesday’s final workout. The Nashville Predators netminder is 11-23-6 this season with an .899 save percentage and 2.95 goals-against average behind his struggling team, which owns the NHL’s third-worst record (19-28-7).

Canada previously named Jordan Binnington its starting goaltender for Wednesday’s opening matchup for Sweden, who will have Linus Ullmark in net. The 4 Nations tournament round-robin play will continue in Montreal through Saturday before the event flips over to Boston for a final slate of games.