Baseball is back! The stars, teams and themes we can’t wait to see in spring training
After a wild baseball winter, spring training is in the air.
The Mets inked Juan Soto to the largest contract in MLB history — and also brought back fan favorite Pete Alonso this week. The Dodgers had another busy offseason, including the addition of prized Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki. And the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and New York Yankees were among the most active teams in a scorching-hot trade market.
Now, with pitchers and catchers reporting across Arizona and Florida this week, we’ll start seeing how those moves translate to the diamond. We’ve asked our ESPN MLB experts to get us ready for spring training with the stars and storylines they’re most excited to see as baseball returns for the 2025 season.
What is the one thing you are most excited about as spring training begins?
Buster Olney: The Mets are a must-see stop in spring training and will be must-watch all year. The Dodgers are baseball’s Evil Empire in many fans’ eyes and will be aiming to be the majors’ first back-to-back champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. But in many ways, the Mets will be the team under the most pressure this year, given their success last October, the record-setting signing of Juan Soto and that they have such a difficult challenge in the loaded National League East.
The major competitive question the Mets face is this: In the face of another rotation makeover, can they replicate the starters’ production of 2024, when they ranked fifth in innings and 12th in ERA?
Jorge Castillo: Can the Mets reproduce some of their magic? The lineup is undoubtedly better than a year ago with the addition of Soto, Mark Vientos coming off a breakout season and Alonso back after a long winter for the slugger. The bullpen has been upgraded. The rotation has questions but so did last year’s.
Beyond the talent, however, the 2024 Mets ran on vibes en route from a 22-33 start to reaching the National League Championship Series. Jose Iglesias, the infielder and part-time singer who helped establish the good energy upon joining the team in late May, is not around anymore. A few other key cogs in the vibes machine are gone, too. Asking the 2025 Mets to replicate the 2024 OMG, Grimace-powered Mets is unrealistic. Teams like that are rare. But vibes matter, and the Mets will need to generate some good ones as they head into a season with higher expectations.
Jeff Passan: Trying to figure out who is good in the American League. The Yankees lost Soto — and gained Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams and Paul Goldschmidt. Their predecessor as AL champion, Texas, added Joc Pederson and Jake Burger, re-signed Nathan Eovaldi, refashioned its bullpen and has a healthy Jacob deGrom. Other playoff teams from last year — Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit — still have playoff aspirations. As do the other four AL East teams as well as Seattle and Minnesota. It’s a wide-open league — again — and spring training often gives little clues that make more sense once the standings have sorted themselves out.
Alden Gonzalez: Getting an up-close look at Roki Sasaki. We’ve been hearing so much about him for years, and he is finally in the major leagues, getting set to face the best hitters in the world. Though they’ll monitor him closely, the Los Angeles Dodgers won’t place any restrictions on Sasaki in his first season in the U.S. I want to see how one of the most lauded pitching development programs goes about extracting the greatness Sasaki clearly possesses. And I want to see how major league hitters react to his absurd splitter.
Jesse Rogers: Excited might be too strong, but I’m definitely interested in the use of automatic balls and strikes this spring. Barring a major breakdown in the system, we’re probably a year away from robot umps — at least for some calls — becoming a permanent part of the game.
On the field, it’s cool to see some of the sport’s most well-known grizzled veterans changing teams while trying to drink from the fountain of youth. Can Justin Verlander help lead the Giants out of .500 hell? Same goes for Max Scherzer in Toronto. Their Hall of Fame-worthy stories are down to the final chapters. And please don’t ask me for Dodgers spring training tickets. That’s going to be a scene all spring.
Other than Soto, which player who changed teams this winter are you most interested in seeing in his new uniform?
Olney: Alex Bregman, who is likely to land with the Red Sox, Cubs or Tigers soon; sources in the Astros organization are skeptical he’ll return to Houston. If he goes to Fenway Park, he could pepper the Green Monster while relearning the nuances of playing in the middle infield. If he goes to Chicago — likely on a short-term, Cody Bellinger-type deal — he will have pressure to produce. And if he signs with the Tigers, it would be Detroit’s de facto announcement that with Tarik Skubal two years from free agency, the team’s window to win is now, and the expensive signing of Bregman would be an all-in move.
Passan: Corbin Burnes, who was the Diamondbacks’ rejoinder to everything the Dodgers are trying to do. Arizona is a dangerous, dangerous team. It’s easy to forget they swept Los Angeles in the postseason two years ago and reached the World Series without Burnes, who has the best ERA in baseball over the past five seasons. He joins Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt in one of baseball’s best rotations — one that complements an offense that scored the most runs in baseball last year. The offseason after the signing of Jordan Montgomery went bad, Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick didn’t allow the sour taste to keep him from trying to win, which is more than can be said for many of his contemporaries. If Burnes is his normal self, the Diamondbacks will be the best competition for the Dodgers in the cutthroat NL West.
Castillo: Four years ago, Walker Buehler, who signed a one-year, $21.5 million deal with Boston this offseason, was one of the best pitchers in the majors. The brash right-hander went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 33 starts, tossing over 200 innings, for the Dodgers. Then, he got hurt, underwent a second Tommy John surgery, missed the 2023 season and struggled upon returning in 2024 before giving a gutsy postseason effort culminating with recording the final three outs of the World Series.
Buehler is talented, confident and a proven big-game performer. A return to his previous form could be the difference in the Red Sox vaulting from missing the playoffs to becoming a legitimate contender — and result in Buehler receiving the payday expected during his peak next winter.
Gonzalez: Kyle Tucker, because I still don’t think enough people realize how good he is. Only 14 players accumulated more FanGraphs wins above replacement from 2021 to 2023 than Tucker. He was on track to be even better — much better — in his age-27 season in 2024, He had an OPS of 1.175 by June 3 before suffering a shin fracture that kept him out for three months. Tucker has since been traded from the Astros to the Cubs. Free agency is nine months away with a massive payday approaching. And Tucker might be my pick for NL MVP.
Rogers: It’s a tie between Max Fried and Tucker. The former got paid, the latter is hoping for the same. Fried is venturing out from a comfortable situation in Atlanta where players aren’t subjected to the same intensity that New York, Boston or Philadelphia brings. He’ll feel that with the Yankees. Will he thrive under the bright lights?
Meanwhile, Tucker is leaving the only league, team and city he has known in his big league career — just in time for his platform year in a place that is notoriously volatile for left-handed hitters because of weather patterns that vary from season to season. Wrigley Field is due for a good summer, which could turn Tucker into the next $300 million (or more) man next offseason.
Other than Sasaki, who is one player from our top 100 prospects list you are most looking forward to seeing this spring?
Olney: After being dormant for a few years, the Red Sox appear to be on the verge of a breakout, fueled by some high-end prospects — maybe none better than Roman Anthony, who will presumably make his debut this year. Folks in the Boston organization rave about his work ethic and focus, and for all the talk in recent seasons about fellow prospect Marcelo Mayer, Anthony could have an immediate impact once he lands in the big leagues. His slash line in the minors last year: .291/.396/.498. And he dominated in Triple-A after a second-half promotion, accumulating as many walks (31) as strikeouts (31).
Passan: Even before he reaches the big leagues, Chandler Simpson is already one of the most exciting players in baseball. A 5-foot-11, 170-pound outfielder chosen by the Tampa Bay Rays in the competitive-balance round of the 2022 draft out of Georgia Tech, Simpson is the best base-stealing prospect since Billy Hamilton. In his first full minor league season in 2023, Simpson stole 94 bases in 109 attempts. Last year, at High-A and Double-A, Simpson stole 104 bases in 121 attempts over 110 games. Most interesting is how Simpson hit last year. He very rarely strikes out, his left-handed swing devised for contact. At High-A, he batted .364 in nearly 150 plate appearances. He continued in Double-A, batting .351/.401/.407 and walking 29 times against 27 strikeouts in 358 plate appearances. It’s a lot of singles. But it’s also a lot of times on base that are near-automatic to wind up at second. Hitting to a .377 wOBA and 141 wRC+ means you’re very good. And so while Simpson isn’t nearly as lauded as some of the others here, he is a throwback, the sort who’s impossibly fun to watch. Baseball will take all of that it can get.
Castillo: The Martian has landed in left field at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Jasson Dominguez, one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory, is slated to make the Yankees’ Opening Day roster for the first time as the team’s every-day left fielder. You’re probably thinking, “It’s about time!” But know this: Dominguez turned 22 on Friday. The shine might have dimmed from when he signed as a 16-year-old marvel out of the Dominican Republic, but he’s younger than Travis Bazzana, last year’s No. 1 pick. Last season, despite dealing with injuries, Dominguez slashed .314/.376/.504 with 11 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 58 games across three minor league levels before getting called up to the Bronx in September. He looked uncomfortable in the outfield and didn’t produce enough at the plate for the Yankees to give him playing time in October, but his power-speed combo and getting leeway to find his rhythm should give New York an upgrade in left field over Alex Verdugo.
Gonzalez: Jackson Jobe, a 22-year-old right-hander who debuted with the Detroit Tigers late last season, got a taste of playoff baseball and might lock down a rotation spot this year. He’s a great athlete who can easily access velocity, displays an excellent changeup and flashes a cool-looking sweeper. If Jobe makes the proper adjustments, he and Tarik Skubal in the same rotation could win the Tigers the American League Central.
Rogers: I’ll go with Matt Shaw of the Cubs. How many teams rid themselves of every player who played a position during the previous season? That’s what the Cubs did at third base this winter when they jettisoned seven players who saw time at the hot corner. Barring an Alex Bregman sighting, this has left the door open for Shaw to win the job. That’s some serious faith in a guy who has shot up Kiley McDaniel’s prospect rankings, landing at No. 23 to begin the season, but has only 35 Triple-A games under his belt.
Which team are you far more interested in today than you were a year ago at this time?
Olney: The Reds. The oddsmakers have set the early over/under for Cincinnati’s win total at 78.5, just above the team’s 77-85 record last season and that makes no sense. The Reds had easily the worst record in one-run decisions last year (15-29) meaning that if they played last season again with the same group, they’d probably improve by four or five wins — and they should be better this season after bolstering their rotation and lineup. And new manager Terry Francona has demonstrated over and over in his Hall of Fame-caliber career that he is difference-making. In his first year as the Guardians’ manager, Cleveland improved from 68-94 to 92-70.
Passan: The A’s. As eye-roll-inducing as it was to see A’s owner John Fisher named to the league’s executive committee (inviting the person most responsible for killing baseball in Oakland to the most powerful group in the game said all it needed to about the lack of regret for that decision) the team spending this season in Sacramento is better than the one that made a 19-game improvement to 69-93 last year. The A’s spent $67 million on Luis Severino and traded for Jeffrey Springs to shore up their rotation. They added Jose Leclerc to their bullpen and Gio Urshela to their infield. They locked up slugger Brent Rooker long-term. A full year of Lawrence Butler and Jacob Wilson, a bounce back from Zack Gelof, improvement from JJ Bleday, the arrival of Nick Kurtz — squint and you can see a pretty good core and a team that if everything breaks right could have October aspirations.
Castillo: The Red Sox. Fans in Boston aren’t satisfied with the organization’s offseason, but the Red Sox upgraded their biggest weakness (pitching) and might not be done. Acquiring Nolan Arenado or signing Alex Bregman would be quite the finish for a club that will have three top-25 prospects, including the consensus No. 2 prospect behind Sasaki (Anthony), waiting in Triple-A Worcester.
Garrett Crochet looked like an ace in 2024. Buehler was one before his second Tommy John surgery. Patrick Sandoval might help down the stretch. The Red Sox finished 81-81 with a plus-four run differential last season despite a slew of injuries and a pitching drop-off in the second half. Triston Casas is healthy after playing in just 63 games. Trevor Story is healthy after playing in 26 games last season. Rafael Devers, plagued by shoulder injuries last year, should be healthier. Jarren Duran registered a breakout All-Star 2024 season. Wilyer Abreu had a great rookie year. The Red Sox have the talent to return to contention.
Gonzalez: The Giants. I don’t know if they’ll make the playoffs — I see three National League East teams as near-locks, so it will be tough — but Buster Posey has at least made them more exciting in his first year running baseball operations. I don’t know how Willy Adames will age, but pairing him at the top of the order with a healthy Jung Hoo Lee should be fun. I don’t know how much Justin Verlander has left, but inserting him in a group headlined by Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, who is expected to pitch his first full season in three years, is intriguing.
Rogers: Year-to-year, definitely the Mets. We knew nothing of what they would become last season when they opened camp in 2024. Carlos Mendoza was a first-time manager who proved his worth throughout a magical run in New York. After adding Soto and re-signing fan favorite Pete Alonso, the sky seems the limit. But this time, they won’t be just a fun story — they’ll have tons of added pressure. If they can keep it fun and loose like they did last year, the Mets will be a force again. That lineup could be scary.
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Bill Connelly
It seems like only yesterday that Florida State was running circles around Alabama, LSU was scoring a statement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a game with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly were coaching top-10 teams.
College football has the shortest regular season around but remains capable of endless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has found a new one and, because of another couple of late-game failures, Miami is again just on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in (while Notre Dame is again safe).
Now we get to find out how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate web of tiebreakers to reach conference title games? What surprises might fierce rivalry games provide? And most importantly, how much small-school playoff football do you plan on watching?
It’s time to feast on Thanksgiving and on football. It’s Rivalry Week! Here’s everything you need to follow.
Two huge rivalry games starring favorites as spoilers
Rivalry Week’s superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look — from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) — you’ll find games that will define fans’ outlooks for an entire offseason.
It’s nice to have some bell-cow games, though. And two of the sport’s loudest rivalries have major stakes this year.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox)
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Ohio State hasn’t beaten Michigan in a while. Since the start of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went through a full-on existential crisis after last year’s loss, then rallied to whomp four straight opponents and win the national title.
On Saturday, the Buckeyes will try out a new role for a new era: unbeaten spoiler. They’re safely in the CFP no matter what, though they could still lose their spot in the Big Ten championship game. (I guess that would be a bad thing?) But with a win, they could ensure that Michigan is out of the CFP running. That’s probably enough motivation.
Last week, Michigan provided a complete performance with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O’Meara, in because of injuries, rushed for a combined 171 yards, and the defense allowed touchdowns on only the Terps’ first and last drives. Bryce Underwood ranks 12th in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are 10th in defensive SP+.
Ohio State has been so ruthlessly automatic that we still don’t know everything we need to know about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling injuries of late, Sayin has completed 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to four interceptions, but he has also thrown just 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he perform when facing constant pressure? We don’t know. (Of course, Penn State got in his face a lot and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We don’t know. (Granted, he’s 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)
Smith appears likely to play Saturday, but Tate’s status remains uncertain. This might be the stiffest defensive test Sayin has faced, but it’s definitely the stiffest Underwood has faced, and he doesn’t have the healthiest skill corps either. The pressure is all on Michigan for a change.
Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been able to say it won its last trip to Austin. If the Aggies can still say that Saturday morning, they’ll have wrapped up their first unbeaten regular season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship game appearance and officially knocked Texas out of CFP contention.
Texas just hasn’t looked the part for much of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are currently 23rd with a defense that has allowed more than 30 points for four straight games and an offense that only recently began carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and while he has derived loads of success from short, easy passes, the offense is indeed clicking even if the defense isn’t.
Two weeks ago against South Carolina, A&M’s Marcel Reed put together just about the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and best second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You can’t ever say A&M is out of a game if Reed is around to dig the Aggies out of a hole, but he also might be part of the reason they’re in the hole to begin with.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3
Which contender falls on the road?
Of the 11 teams ranked from fourth to 14th in the CFP rankings, nine play on the road this weekend. A few could survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, but with so many similar teams packed together, you don’t really want to find out if you’re on the “could survive” list.
Based on SP+ win probabilities, there’s only about a 7% chance that these nine teams all win and there is a 37% chance that at least three lose. Chaos looms. Let’s talk about each of the nine games, going from the most likely to the least likely defeats for the contenders.
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had basically the same season: They’re a combined 0-4 against teams in the SP+ top 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 against everyone else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the same general strengths (ruthlessly efficient offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that show up only occasionally). Vols fans are probably annoyed that their team is out of the playoff running because their schedule was slightly harder, but they can exact some level of vengeance with a win Saturday.
My Heisman points race totals suggest Diego Pavia‘s odds should be better than they are. He’ll have to torch Tennessee’s (occasionally torchable) defense to make a good final impression. But Joey Aguilar is capable of doing the same. Both are in the best quadrant of this chart:
Both defenses played well last week against limited opponents, but the offenses have the advantage here.
Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0
No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, noon, ABC)
Since walloping a good USF team in Week 3, Miami has played three SP+ top-40 teams — Florida State, Louisville and SMU — and lost to two. The defense has been consistently strong; the Canes are seventh in points allowed per drive, and they could give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers’ run game isn’t sharp enough. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at times by a lack of explosiveness and forced to score via long drives with lots of snaps.
That makes Pitt a fascinating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive plays in exchange for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, but they’re averaging just 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they don’t find and exploit open spaces, an upset looms.
Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
In the past three seasons, Auburn has played 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 but with nine one-score defeats. When you come so consistently close, you’re always a threat.
Auburn’s defense is elite against the run, but Alabama has all but given up on the ground game. The Tide choose instead to put everything on quarterback Ty Simpson‘s shoulders, and despite a solid pass rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That’s a problem, but the Tigers could make things confusing on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (against Vandy) and Deuce Knight (against Mercer) have enjoyed fantastic performances since Hugh Freeze’s firing, and there isn’t a ton of tape on either of them. If Auburn keeps this one uncomfortably close — or pulls off a terribly damaging upset — the element of surprise could be a major reason.
Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5
No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon might not need a win in Seattle to secure a playoff bid, but if other favorites win and it doesn’t, things could get tense.
Washington’s run defense is stout enough to push the Ducks off schedule and force quarterback Dante Moore to hit big third-and-long throws that he hasn’t always made this season. But this game will likely come down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They’ve dominated all but the most elite defenses.
Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 points per game, 4.5 yards per play
Washington vs. everyone else: 42.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play
Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams gets going, Washington can beat anyone. But it would be the first time he has done so against a defense this good.
Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1
No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 start, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of three, their defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Last week’s loss to Pitt removed a lot of stakes from this game. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has enough hatred for Georgia to keep the stakes as high as possible.
If you can’t stop Georgia’s run game, the Dawgs will just keep at it, and that might be all that matters in this one. But Tech’s offense remains excellent. Haynes King has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his past four games, and he has rushed for more than 85 non-sack yards seven times in 2025. King almost willed the Jackets to victory over UGA last season but fell just short. He’ll try again in his last Tech home game (although this one will be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and not Bobby Dodd).
Current line: UGA -13.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8
No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, noon, ABC)
First things first: Yes, the current college football calendar stinks, and it was always conceivable that a coach would get wooed by blue-blood schools amid a playoff push. But as others have noted, this isn’t happening to Lane Kiffin. It’s happening to Ole Miss because Kiffin is actually thinking about leaving. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to weigh a blue-blood move — tradition, recruiting bases, an epic and ridiculous salary offer — but this is still his own doing.
Ole Miss is much better than MSU. The Rebels combine a steady run game with high tempo and high-ceiling passing. The defense has been mediocre against the run but strong against the pass. That pairs well against a Bulldogs team that makes big plays here and there but goes three-and-out too often and can’t stop even an average run game. With no distractions or rivalry weirdness, Ole Miss cruises. But, wow, is it difficult to assume no distractions or rivalry weirdness.
Current line: Rebels -7.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 14.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 8.5
No. 13 Utah at Kansas (Friday, noon, ESPN)
Utah’s defense has allowed 75 points in the past two weeks, and star defensive end John Henry Daley is likely out for the season with a leg injury. But Kansas has lost four of five since a 4-2 start. The Jayhawks’ offense has underachieved against projections in every game since September, and Utah has scored at least 45 points in six of seven games. The Utes dodged a bullet with last week’s comeback win over Kansas State, and maybe the defense can’t right the ship. But signs still point to them reaching 10-2.
Current line: Utah -13.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.0
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
Over the past four weeks, WVU’s defense has made the most tackles for loss in the Big 12, while new quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. has become a more and more explosive passer. The Mountaineers have won two of three since a 2-6 start. Will any of this matter against Texas Tech? Probably not. The Red Raiders are on a different plane of existence in the trenches, and they’ve won four games by an average of 41-9 since quarterback Behren Morton returned from injury.
Current line: Tech -20.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.5
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)
A game with CFP stakes will end at around 2 a.m. ET Sunday. Convenient. There shouldn’t be much drama, though. Notre Dame has won its past three games by an average of 52-11, and while Stanford has improved of late and scored a rousing rivalry win over Cal last week, its offense is still destitute. It will take epic rivalry magic for this to remain close past midnight.
Current line: Irish -32.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 24.9
Does the ACC have another round of surprises?
Back in the 2010s, the ACC Coastal division was the shining light for either parity or slapstick. All seven of its members won the division title once from 2013 to 2019, and all seven proceeded to lose the ACC championship game. (That’s why we got rid of divisions — they were usually terribly unequal.)
The spirit of the Coastal lives. It’s in the walls; there’s no getting it out. Starting with Clemson in the preseason, the conference favorite per SP+ has changed, wait for it, seven times this year and has done so for each of the past four weeks. Odds suggest we’ll probably get an SMU-Virginia title game next week, but since when do odds matter in this league? Four other teams have at least a slight chance at taking advantage if (when?) the Mustangs or Cavaliers slip up, including whoever wins Miami-Pitt (listed above).
No. 21 SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2)
SMU began the season 2-2, falling out of the SP+ top 50 from a starting point of 19th. Since October began, however, the Mustangs have gone 6-1 and surged all the way back to 24th. The defense rounded into form first, then the offense followed. The Mustangs still can’t run as well as expected, but quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 994 yards and seven touchdowns in three November games.
Now comes an odd test: Cal just fired Justin Wilcox after his Golden Bears followed an upset of Louisville with a catastrophic, error-strewn loss to Stanford. Interim coaches have done well this season, and Cal can combine solid pass defense with an occasionally productive Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-to-Jacob De Jesus pass combo. But this game will probably come down to SMU: If the Mustangs keep hitting the notes they’ve been hitting, they’ll head back to Charlotte in a week and a half.
Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 | FPI projection: SMU by 12.8
Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
In the past 45 years, Virginia has been a double-digit favorite against rival Virginia Tech just once, in 1985. The Cavaliers lost 28-10. In fact, they’ve been favored over Tech 14 times in that span and have gone just 7-7 in those games. In terms of general rivalry nonsense, that’s delightful. But surely they can’t lose this one, right? Tech has lost five of six, Virginia has won eight of nine, and a win would take the Hoos to Charlotte for just the second time. Surely not, right?
To the Hokies’ credit, they haven’t stopped fighting. They made Louisville and Miami sweat for a while, but they just haven’t had the horses, especially on defense. Tech’s run game could test UVA, but even against an inconsistent Cavaliers offense, the Hokies will still have to make stops, and that has been a major issue.
Current line: UVA -11.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 9.5
Down to the wire in the Group of 5
After weeks of turnover atop the Group of 5 hierarchy, last Saturday was actually stable, with the three current favorites (Tulane, North Texas and James Madison) all winning. If that continues — and SP+ suggests there’s only about a 15% chance one of them loses this week — we know where things stand: Tulane and North Texas will face off for the American title while JMU will hope to score style points against either Southern Miss or Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
North Texas is essentially the mid-major USC: The Mean Green have a relentless passing game, a good run game, a solid pass defense and a very worrisome run defense. Earlier in the season, that might have been something Temple could take advantage of, but in November the Owls are averaging just 85 non-sack rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. If you can’t punish the Mean Green between the tackles, they will overwhelm you with points.
Current line: UNT -19.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 | FPI projection: UNT by 17.7
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU)
Despite a recent two-game skid, Coastal has scored 40-plus in four straight Sun Belt games thanks to big rushes from quarterback Samari Collier and an increase in aggressive downfield completions. Nothing really worked in a blowout loss to South Carolina last week — and honestly, on paper JMU’s defense might be better than South Carolina’s — but the Chanticleers’ big-play hunting makes them an intriguing candidate to pull an upset (or get totally thumped).
Current line: JMU -21.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.8
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Tim Albin left an established culture at Ohio to build a new one at Charlotte. It might take a little while. His 49ers are 0-10 against FBS competition, and they haven’t lost by fewer than 17 since September. They might test Tulane with some vertical passing, but with the Green Wave playing a pretty good bend-don’t-break routine of late, I doubt it works. And every other matchup drastically favors Jake Retzlaff and the Wave.
Current line: Tulane -29.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 28.2
Week 14 chaos superfecta
We’re again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Utah’s late comeback against Kansas State, we missed out last week and fell to 6-7 for the season. It’s time to claw back to .500!
SP+ says there’s only a 47% chance that Ole Miss (82% win probability against Mississippi State), Ohio State (82% against Michigan), Louisiana (84% against ULM) and UNLV (84% against Nevada) all win. Let’s take down a favored rival!
Week 14 playlist
From Thursday night to Saturday night, here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Thursday
Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m., ESPN). If either American favorite slips up, Navy could be ready to grab a conference title game bid with a track-meet win Thanksgiving night. The Midshipmen have given up more than 30 points in six straight games, and Memphis has done so in four of five. May we be blessed with a repeat of last season’s 100-point, 1,225-yard feast.
Current line: Memphis -5.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 9.9
Early Friday
Iowa at Nebraska (noon, CBS). Both of these teams were hoping for better than 7-4 records this season, and Iowa in particular was painfully close to something far greater. Regardless, this has become a must-watch game: The past seven matchups have been decided by one score. Iowa has been the better team in 2025, but the Hawkeyes are only 2-4 in one-score finishes. Nebraska is 4-2.
Current line: Iowa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3
Friday afternoon
San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are assured of a spot in the Mountain West title game, and we potentially avoid tiebreaker hell. But New Mexico, now 70th in SP+ — the last time the Lobos finished in the top 70 was 2007 — has an efficient passing game, a quickly improving defense and could make the race awfully messy with a home upset.
Current line: SDSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 | FPI projection: SDSU by 0.5
Friday evening
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m., NBC). After nine games of mostly comprehensive brilliance, Indiana has underachieved against SP+ projections by 9.8 points per game over its past two. Did the Hoosiers peak early? Did they just get bored? Will that matter against a fading Purdue team that has lost its past two games by a combined 83-23? Surely the Spoilermakers couldn’t spoil the Hoosiers’ party, right?
Current line: IU -28.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 | FPI projection: IU by 28.6
Late Friday
No. 25 Arizona at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). If Kansas upsets Utah earlier Friday, a win would keep ASU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. But Arizona has won four straight and has risen to 25th in SP+. ASU could exploit a suspect Wildcats run defense with Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims, but the Sun Devils must avoid passing downs and make some stops against an improving Arizona offense.
Current line: Arizona -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 0.4
Early Saturday
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2). Two years ago, 5-6 BYU nearly wrecked Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship plans in Stillwater, bolting to an 18-point lead but falling in double overtime. (That’s right, kids, OSU was once good at football! Way back in 2023!) Now comes a reversal. The Cougars are one win away from the title game but must fend off a 5-6 UCF team with speed and no semblance of consistency.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3
Clemson at South Carolina (noon, SECN). These two preseason top-15 teams are a combined 11-12, having fallen victim to poor development, close losses, mediocre new hires and any number of other afflictions. But that’s why Rivalry Week is amazing: This game is still going to be intense and hostile, and the winner will get a dose of positivity before a challenging offseason.
Current line: S.C. -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.5 | FPI projection: S.C. by 3.4
Toledo at Central Michigan (noon, ESPN+). Since a shocking loss to Bowling Green sent Toledo to 1-2 in conference play, the Rockets have won their past four MAC games by an average of 37-6. Their defense ranks fifth nationally in points allowed per drive. But CMU has won four of five to remain in the hunt. Who keeps title hopes alive (until Miami maybe dashes them later in the day)?
Current line: Toledo -10.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 | FPI projection: CMU by 9.5
Saturday afternoon
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC). This one almost certainly belonged in one of the marquee categories above, but while so many other playoff contenders take to the road over Rivalry Week, OU has a less complicated task: win at home against an LSU team with a nonexistent offense, and the Sooners are in the CFP.
The Oklahoma offense could make this one complicated: LSU ranks ninth in defensive SP+, and OU has averaged only 14.8 offensive points and 4.6 yards per play against defenses ranked higher than 20th. But the Tigers scored only 13 points on Western Kentucky last week; 14 by the Sooners could be enough.
Current line: OU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 | FPI projection: OU by 6.6
Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The Sun Belt race is simple: The winner in Hattiesburg faces James Madison in the title game. Southern Miss no-showed against Texas State and fell at South Alabama to drop to 7-4. The Golden Eagles are increasingly vulnerable on defense, but Troy’s offense ranks 125th in yards per play. The Trojans are here because of red zone defense and a fierce pass rush.
Current line: USM -6.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 | FPI projection: USM by 1.5
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m., ESPN+). The winner is guaranteed a spot in the Conference USA title game. JSU had won five in a row until a misstep last week at Florida International, and WKU has won three straight CUSA games and nearly toppled LSU last week. Which young QB — JSU’s Caden Creel or WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr. — handles the moment better?
Current line: WKU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 | FPI projection: JSU by 0.3
Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., FS1). The road team has won three straight in this strange series. In its past four games, Wisconsin has overachieved against SP+ projections by 20.8 points per game. Minnesota has underachieved by 9.7. Can the Badgers win to wrap up the happiest possible 5-7 finish? Or will Minnesota rally to grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the fourth time in five years?
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.3
Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Along with Georgia Southern-Marshall (1:30 p.m., ESPN+) and Arkansas State-Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+), we have a trio of “Winner bowls, loser stays home” games with 5-6 teams squaring off Saturday afternoon.
Penn State has been legitimately strong under interim coach Terry Smith, and Ethan Grunkemeyer‘s 71.4 Total QBR toasts that of injured veteran Drew Allar (56.6). It would be a surprise if the Nittany Lions slipped up this close to the finish line against a Rutgers team that has lost six of eight.
Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 11.1
Saturday evening
Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m., Fox). POTENTIAL SNOW GAME ALERT. The forecast in Champaign is looking pretty dicey, and here’s a big “hell yes” to that. The road team has won four of five in this series, but Illinois has been infinitely better at home than on the road this season. Of course, Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense have underachieved for weeks. Can they rally on senior night?
Current line: Illinois -6.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 11.3 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.3
North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). This is Bill Belichick’s first foray into one of the sport’s most underrated rivalries. UNC was rallying toward bowl eligibility before last week’s tight loss to Duke. Now the Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face an NC State team that is both physical and maddeningly inconsistent. A Wolfpack blowout? A UNC upset? Nothing would be particularly surprising.
Current line: NC State -7.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 8.7
UCLA at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). After a brief upturn following DeShaun Foster’s firing, UCLA has bottomed out again, losing its past four games by an average of 45-13. Staying close might require a solid amount of rivalry magic, but USC could be reeling after last week’s loss to Oregon officially eliminated the Trojans from CFP contention.
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 27.3 | FPI projection: USC by 23.6
Late Saturday
UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). They play for a cannon, and they had a nasty brawl in the not-so-distant past. Major “underrated rivalry” points here. Nevada has suddenly started playing well of late, and while we don’t know if UNLV will still have MWC title hopes by kickoff, the Rebels could hit double-digit wins for the second straight year.
Current line: UNLV -9.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 10.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The playoffs are underway in every division, and while the favorites probably aren’t going to be tested just yet, here’s a game you should track at each level.
FCS round of 24: No. 21 Yale at No. 13 Youngstown State (12 p.m., ESPN+). Two Ivy League teams reached the FCS playoffs in the Ancient Eight’s first year of accepting bids, and while Harvard (at Villanova, noon, ESPN+) appears to be losing steam quickly, Yale is peaking just in time. The Bulldogs have won their past six and have risen to 12th in SP+. Youngstown State is only 24th, but the Penguins score loads of points with dual-threat quarterback and Payton Award candidate Beau Brungard, and with their status as FCS royalty, I’m guessing they want to send a message against the playoff newcomers from the Northeast.
SP+ projection: Yale by 3.3
Division II round of 16: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 15 Western Colorado (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). A week after thumping No. 4 CSU-Pueblo to score the school’s first playoff win, UTPB returns to Colorado to face a WCU team fresh off of a top-five win of its own over Central Washington. This is a dynamite quarterback matchup — UTPB’s Kanon Gibson vs. WCU’s Drew Nash — and though the winner probably will face a massive task against No. 2 Harding, a quarterfinal berth would be sweet all the same.
SP+ projection Western by 5.6
Division III round of 32: No. 20 Wheaton at No. 5 Wartburg (1 p.m., ESPN+). I bet you thought I’d choose one of four teams from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — my own personal obsession — for this section, but I resisted because this game seems particularly exciting. Wartburg gives up only 10 points per game and piles up tackles for loss with a ridiculously active defensive front. Wheaton, meanwhile, averages 48.6 points behind the arm of quarterback Mark Forcucci.
SP+ projection: Wartburg by 0.5
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 9 Morningside at No. 8 College of Idaho (3 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho reached the NAIA semifinals a couple of years ago thanks to a dynamite offense, but the Yotes have earned a huge home game this year thanks to defense. Morningside is NAIA royalty, having won three national titles since 2018, and with Zach Chevalier throwing to Drew Sellon and Lennx Brown, the Mustangs might have the best passing attack in NAIA.
SP+ projection: Morningside by 8.3
LAS VEGAS — Golden Knights captain Mark Stone, back in the lineup after being out for more than a month because of a wrist injury, scored a tying power-play goal in the third period Wednesday, but Vegas dropped a 4-3 shootout loss to the Ottawa Senators.
Vegas dropped to 1-8 in overtime games. The Golden Knights have points in seven of eight games, but four were overtime losses.
Stone, who was placed on injured reserve Oct. 20, had 13 points in his first six games before getting hurt.
“It’s good to have his energy back,” coach Bruce Cassidy said before Wednesday’s loss. “He’s good on the bench. He’s a leader. It’s just nice to have him back. He makes our team better.”
Stone had been skating with the Golden Knights’ American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.
“If I didn’t have that, I’d probably be looking more at Friday,” Stone said of his return. “Everything’s healed. I got the practices I needed. I’m ready to go.”
Stone was on the top line when he was injured but was on the third-line center against the Senators, with Mitch Marner moving to wing. Braeden Bowman, a 22-year-old rookie, remained on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev.
This was not the first time the 33-year-old Stone has been injured in recent seasons. He played 66 games last season, his most since the 2018-19 season.
“Every injury is frustrating,” Stone said before Wednesday’s game. “I don’t enjoy rehabbing. I’ve unfortunately gotten good at it. I understand the best way to go about it, but no rehab’s fun. I don’t wish it on anyone. I’m excited to be back.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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