Connect with us

Published

4 months ago

on

Mar 7, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

Last week, we touched on key players who did not enter the transfer portal from each Way-Too-Early Top 25 team. This week, we take a look at the biggest questions that loom for each team that made the list ahead of next season. Will the portal pick-ups for these teams pay off? How will big-name recruits play out in the spotlight? Will offseason changes hold back certain teams?

Here are our writers discuss the biggest spring questions for each team.

Who will earn the starting quarterback position?

Quarterback Will Howard exceeded all expectations when he transferred from Kansas State for his final season. In the College Football Playoff, Howard posted a QBR of 97.2 while completing 75.2% of his passes, as Ohio State won its first national championship in a decade. Freshman Julian Sayin enters the spring as the favorite to replace Howard. Sayin, who transferred to Ohio State from Alabama after coach Nick Saban’s retirement, was a top 10 overall recruit last year. He has the talent — and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith to throw to — to keep the Ohio State offense rolling. But Sayin will have to fend off another talented passer, true freshman Tavien St. Clair, who was a top 10 overall recruit in this class, to ultimately win the job. — Jake Trotter

Will the new defensive tackles be able to fill the shoes of former players at the position?

For the past two years, Texas has had a luxury at defensive tackle, a rarity in the portal era. In the 2024 NFL draft, Byron Murphy II went No. 16 to the Seattle Seahawks and T’Vondre Sweat was picked No. 38 by the Tennessee Titans while Vernon Broughton (6-foot-4, 305 pounds) and Alfred Collins (6-5, 320 pounds) slid right into their places. But those two are gone, along with four other defensive linemen who departed via the portal. The Longhorns backfilled by adding 6-3, 333-pound Cole Brevard from Purdue, 6-5, 330-pound Travis Shaw from North Carolina and Ohio State transfer Hero Kanu, at 6-5, 305 pounds. They’ve also added one of the nation’s best recruits in Justus Terry, the No. 2 defensive tackle in the 2025 ESPN 300 and No. 8 overall prospect. Texas has veteran edge rushers in breakout star Colin Simmons, Trey Moore and Ethan Burke, but the big D-tackles have made Texas one of the toughest teams to run against, and has allowed linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. to roam free as a playmaker. A restocked middle of the line will keep the Longhorns dangerous up front. — Dave Wilson

How will new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles fare in his first season at Penn State?

Penn State’s defense has had good coordinator transitions under coach James Franklin, most recently from Brent Pry to Manny Diaz to Tom Allen. The switch from Allen to Jim Knowles, whom Penn State swiped from Big Ten rival and reigning national champion Ohio State, is expected to be just as smooth but remains a notable question entering the spring. Knowles showed at Ohio State that he could not only craft strong schemes, but can maximize the talents of elite players. He must do the same for a Penn State defense losing Abdul Carter, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and other standouts such as safety Jaylen Reed. But Penn State returns Dani Dennis-Sutton, linebacker Dominic DeLuca, safety Zakee Wheatley and others. If Knowles can maintain or elevate the defense’s trajectory, Penn State should be a legitimate national title contender. — Adam Rittenberg

Who will start at quarterback for the Fighting Irish?

In each of the past two seasons, Notre Dame has gone into the portal for a veteran QB. So far, the Irish look more than happy to ride with the players they have returning, which makes for a particularly intriguing storyline this spring. Steve Angeli is the veteran, with 80 pass attempts and one start under his belt, but he’s hardly the clear-cut favorite. In fact, the name getting the most buzz is redshirt freshman CJ Carr, who has a world of talent and is seen as the option with the most upside. Then there’s third-year QB Kenny Minchey and true freshman Blake Hebert, who’ll at least get a shot to make an impression. In the past decade, Notre Dame has had a handful of seasons in which multiple QBs had playing time (2015, 2018) but 2022 was the last true spring QB competition without an incumbent on the roster. Perhaps not coincidentally, it was also the only year since 2017 in which the Irish didn’t win 10 games. — David Hale

Can the new Bulldogs’ pass catchers solve their dropped passes issue?

From struggling to run the ball to games with multiple interceptions to failing on third-down conversions, Georgia’s offense had myriad problems in 2024. But no issue received as much attention as dropped passes — the Bulldogs had more than any other team in a Power 4 conference. It put Georgia behind the chains too many times and killed promising drives. The Bulldogs addressed the problem by adding two proven receivers from the transfer portal: USC‘s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas. Thomas, 6-6 and 210 pounds, gives Georgia a red-zone target. Colbie Young, another big target, is expected to be available after pleading no contest to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct on Jan. 29 to resolve a domestic violence case. The Bulldogs also need Dillon Bell to reach his full potential, and Nitro Tuggle and Sacovie White to continue to develop as reliable pass catchers. Freshman C.J. Wiley, a Georgia native, has also turned heads in his first couple of months on campus after enrolling in January. — Mark Schlabach

Can Dante Moore begin to live up to the success of the Ducks’ previous two quarterbacks?

Under Dan Lanning, Oregon has found success in becoming a final stop for transfer quarterbacks and turning them into Heisman contenders. First, it was Bo Nix, then it was Dillon Gabriel; now it’s hoping it can do the same with Moore. But his case is a little different. Moore is younger and has spent only one season at a different program (freshman year at UCLA) while also spending last year under the tutelage of Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein. With Gabriel gone, it’s now Moore’s time to shine. With the Bruins, the former five-star recruit struggled but showed enough flashes to prove his talent could translate to the next level. A year spent watching Gabriel and learning the Ducks’ offense should have done wonders for his development and Stein has been adamant that his offensive philosophy is malleable depending on the kind of quarterback he has. On paper, Moore should have a breakout season, but just how the Ducks utilize and build the unit around him to maximize success remains to be seen. — Paolo Uggetti

How does running back shape up?

Clemson might rank No. 1 in the country in returning offensive production with Cade Klubnik and all of his top receivers coming back, but running back is a key area that needs some answers this spring. Starter Phil Mafah and his 1,115 yards are gone to the NFL. His backup Jay Haynes remains out indefinitely after injuring his knee in the ACC championship game. That leaves Keith Adams Jr — with 30 carries for 122 yards last season — as the most productive running back returning. To address this, Clemson is trying out 6-2, 225-pound receiver Adam Randall at running back this spring after he contributed there in the College Football Playoff loss to Texas. Clemson also has true freshman Gideon Davidson, the player of the year in Virginia who enrolled early and is practicing, and will continue to take a look at Jarvis Green and David Eziomume. — Andrea Adelson

What changes will be made to LSU’s offensive line?

The Tigers are faced with replacing four of their five starters on the offensive line, including tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., who won’t have to wait long to hear their names called in the NFL draft next month. DJ Chester returns at center, but he’s likely to end up shifting to another position up front, probably guard. In other words, the spring will be a time for LSU to look at a couple of different combinations in what will be a retooled offensive line in 2025. Tyree Adams earned some key experience in the bowl game after stepping in at left tackle when Campbell opted out, and an integral part of the Tigers’ talented transfer portal class were the additions of Northwestern’s Josh Thompson, who can play tackle or guard, and Virginia Tech’s Braelin Moore, who can play guard or center. It’s also a big spring for sophomore tackle Weston Davis, who was a five-star recruit a year ago but played only 20 snaps. He’s probably the favorite to earn the starting right tackle spot. — Chris Low

Where is the depth?

With several key players back from a team that went 11-2 in 2024, BYU finds itself in an enviable spot this spring. It has quarterback Jake Retzlaff coming back with one of the best defenses in the country and a solid group of skill players on offense. The Cougars will head into 2025 with some of their highest expectations in years. The key now is development. If they can elevate some roles or reserve players from last year to be key contributors, then there is every reason to believe this is a team that will compete for a playoff spot. — Kyle Bonagura

Can LaNorris Sellers hit another level and lift the Gamecocks to true SEC and playoff contention?

Sellers earned the nickname “Superman” while he emerged as one of college football’s breakout stars last fall, charging South Carolina to only its sixth nine-win season since 1984 and vaulting the Gamecocks within spitting distance of the 12-team CFP field. He closed his first season as a starter with 3,208 total yards and 25 touchdowns, and Sellers played his best football when the Gamecocks did in 2024, shining across a six-game win streak to close the regular season. South Carolina will look for Sellers to improve his downfield accuracy and cut down on turnovers as a second-year starter. And the next steps in his development might also hinge on the players around him, too, as the Gamecocks work to replace running back Rocket Sanders with a handful of new starters on the offensive line. But if Sellers returns as a more refined version of the player he was in 2024, South Carolina will enter the fall with a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and a quarterback capable of potentially carrying the program to its first playoff appearance. — Eli Lederman

How can the Cyclones replace Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel?

We’re talking about a pair of receivers that both had at least 80 catches and went for over 1,100 yards last season. They brought in Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF) to help shore up production, but it’s probably unrealistic to expect receiver play to be at the level it was with Higgins and Noel paired up last season. Still, this is a team that has had a winning record in seven of coach Matt Campbell’s eight seasons. He has shown he can turn over a roster and continue to win games. — Bonagura

Who can step up at running back next season?

Alabama finished sixth in the SEC in rushing offense last season, but quarterback Jalen Milroe was easily the most dynamic component of the Crimson Tide’s running game. With Milroe off to the NFL and Justice Haynes transferring to Michigan, one of the priorities will be figuring out the pecking order at running back and identifying at least two or three backs new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb can be comfortable with in returning the position to a more traditional role. Jam Miller is Alabama’s leading returning rusher and perhaps this is his season to break out, but it was tough sledding for him down the stretch a year ago. He averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and didn’t rush for any touchdowns in his final five games. Behind him, there is very little SEC experience. This will be Richard Young‘s third year on campus. He was hampered by injuries last season. Louisiana transfer Dre’lyn Washington is another player to watch, along with 6-foot, 205-pound freshman Akylin Dear, ranked by ESPN as the nation’s No. 2 running back prospect in the 2025 class. — Low

Who will be quarterback Luke Altmyer‘s primary passing targets this fall?

The exciting thing for Illinois is that its roster and coaching staff don’t change dramatically after a season that resulted in 10 wins and a No. 16 AP poll finish. As coach Bret Bielema told me, “The best thing for us is our best players are back.” But one position Illinois must replenish is wide receiver, as All-Big Ten standout Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin both depart after combining for 1,636 receiving yards and 109 receptions in 2024. Illinois returns Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon, who finished third and fourth on the team in receptions last fall, and also added transfers Hudson Clement (West Virginia) and Justin Bowick (Ball State). Illinois’ overall offensive numbers last fall weren’t eye-popping, but Altmyer’s return under coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. could lead to a spike. — Rittenberg

Without Cam Skattebo, where does the offensive production come from?

It’s hard to overstate how important Skattebo was to the Sun Devils during their surprising run to the College Football Playoff. The guy did it all. He ran for over 1,700 yards with another 605 receiving. There isn’t a like-for-like replacement who can make up for his loss. So, this spring, ASU will set out to make up for his departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt‘s return gives ASU an established winner at quarterback and running back Kyson Brown showed flashes last season that he can be a dangerous player. — Bonagura

Who will be Kevin Jennings primary passing target next season?

Perhaps SMU fans would like a little reassurance on Jennings at quarterback after a disastrous playoff performance (and five turnovers in his final two games), but the Mustangs still have one of the best QBs in the conference, regardless of how 2024 ended. The bigger question is just who Jennings will be distributing the ball to in 2025. Gone are three of his top four wide receivers, his most productive tight end and star tailback Brashard Smith. But that doesn’t mean there’s a lack of talent. Tight end RJ Maryland returns from injury, along with blue-chip recruits Daylon Singleton and Jalen Cooper at receiver, and a handful of last year’s backups — former Texas A&M back LJ Johnson Jr., former Miami wide receiver Romello Brinson — who’ll have a chance to make a bigger impact. It took SMU a few games last season to really find its stride offensively, but identifying the foundation of the upcoming season’s unit needs to be a priority coming out of spring. — Hale

How can the offensive line keep steady following a lot of change?

Kansas State’s consistency is enviable in the topsy-turvy Big 12 and a big part of that has been because of its offensive line. Last season, the Wildcats lost four of their five starters and still gave up the 10th-fewest sacks nationally at one per game, while ranking 11th nationally in rushing offense at 215.5 yards per game. But the Wildcats lost offensive line coach Conor Riley to the Dallas Cowboys, and lost both tackles to graduation and the portal. They added one of the best tackles in the portal, Ohio State’s George Fitzpatrick, along with Brandon Sneh of Wagner and guard Amos Talalele of USC. The Wildcats’ offensive machine doesn’t lack star power with Avery Johnson at QB and Dylan Edwards, who was last seen running for a school bowl record 196 yards and two TDs in a win against Rutgers, in his first game as the featured back. But it’ll need the big guys up front to keep it humming. — Wilson

How can Indiana improve its line-of-scrimmage play?

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza‘s arrival from Cal to replace NFL-bound Kurtis Rourke will generate attention, but the performance change there doesn’t figure to be dramatic one way or the other. Indiana’s line-of-scrimmage play propelled the team to a 10-0 start and a historic 2024 season, but it also showed cracks in losses to Ohio State and Notre Dame. Both the offensive and defensive lines will be replacing key players such as Mike Katic and CJ West, but both groups also return key players, including All-Big Ten defensive lineman Mikail Kamara and left tackle Carter Smith. The offensive line also added notable transfers Pat Coogan, who started for Notre Dame during its CFP run, as well as Zen Michalski (Ohio State) and Kahlil Benson (Colorado). Indiana’s staying power as a good to very good program under coach Curt Cignetti hinges on avoiding line drop-offs. The new-look offensive line, in particular, must come together this spring. — Rittenberg

Can Florida convert its late-season surge into contention among the upper half of the SEC in 2025?

The Gators reshaped the arch of Billy Napier’s third season — and his broader tenure in Gainesville — with four consecutive victories to close 2024, including ranked wins over LSU and Ole Miss. The Gators’ win streak coincided with the emergence of former five-star passer DJ Lagway, who returns in 2025 as one of the nation’s most promising young quarterbacks. Lagway will operate this fall alongside 2024 breakout running back Jadan Baugh and behind an experienced offensive line, while Florida’s talented and young defense is tasked with replacing leading tacklers Shemar James, Trikweze Bridges and Jack Pyburn under the new leadership of co-coordinators Ron Roberts and Vinnie Sunseri. The departures of top pass catchers Chimere Dike and Elijah Badger leave the Gators also searching for new production at wide receiver in 2025. Whether Florida can get similar output from Eugene Wilson III (returning from hip surgery) or freshmen Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson and Naeshuan Montgomery, stands as one of the central questions as the Gators attempt to build on last season’s finish as it faces the nation’s second-toughest schedule in 2025, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. — Lederman

What does Nico Iamaleava and the Vols’ wide receivers need to work on ahead of the fall?

There will be a lot of eyes on Iamaleava at quarterback as he enters his third year on campus, in particular whether he can put up more impressive numbers in the passing game. In Tennessee’s three losses last season, Iamaleava never threw for more than 170 yards and was held without a touchdown pass. In the final two losses of the season to Ohio State and Georgia, he didn’t have a completion longer than 21 yards. But it’s not all on Iamaleava. He’s going to need more help in 2025 from his receivers, and four of his top five pass catchers from last season are gone. Former five-star signee Mike Matthews, after initially entering the transfer portal in the winter, is back and a popular choice to be one of college football’s top breakout players next season. The Vols will need him to be after he caught only seven passes as a freshman. Chris Brazzell II, who transferred last year from Tulane, is the only returning wide receiver on the roster who had more than 100 receiving yards last season. Braylon Staley, now in his second year on campus, will get a big opportunity to move up the depth chart this spring along with Alabama transfer Amari Jefferson and incoming freshmen Radarius Jackson and Travis Smith Jr. — Low

What’s the status of the secondary?

Too often last year, Louisville’s talented defensive backs got burned. This year, the unit will feature a plethora of new faces, with three-quarters of last year’s starters out the door (along with top backups at corner). Louisville went heavy in the portal, identifying what the Cardinals hope are diamonds from lower levels, including Jacksonville State’s Jabari Mack, Florida International‘s JoJo Evans, Louisiana’s Justin Agu and Southern’s Rodney Johnson Jr. Are those additions ready for the step up in class? A spring against an explosive offense led by Miller Moss, Caullin Lacy & Co. ought to be a good first test. — Hale

Will Bryce Underwood be ready to start right away?

Underwood is the most hyped incoming freshman in the country following his high-profile (and high-dollar) commitment flip from LSU to Michigan. The No. 1 overall recruit of the 2024 class, Underwood gives the Wolverines a tantalizing talent at quarterback a year after Michigan cycled through three quarterbacks (Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle), who posted a combined QBR (48.5) that ranked 15th in the Big Ten. Underwood will have every opportunity to win the starting job. But the Wolverines also added Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene, who has thrown for 8,245 yards and 65 touchdowns in his career, to bridge the gap if Underwood isn’t ready yet. — Trotter

What exactly will Collin Klein’s offense look like?

In his first season in College Station, Klein navigated an offensive line that had struggled previously but improved. Conner Weigman returned from injury, then struggled, was benched and transferred to Houston as Marcel Reed took over at quarterback, and running back Le’Veon Moss was leading the SEC in rushing yards before he sustained a season-ending injury, with Rueben Owens missing all but two games last season. They both return along with Amari Daniels. But Noah Thomas, the Aggies’ leading receiver with 39 catches for 574 yards, departed for Georgia, a blow to a passing attack that ranked 87th last season nationally. The Aggies brought in transfers Kevin “KC” Concepcion (NC State), Micah Hudson (Texas Tech), Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and Jonah Wilson (Houston) for a makeover at the position, and also added tight end transfers Amari Niblack (Texas), Micah Riley (Auburn) and Nate Boerkircher (Nebraska). — Wilson

How will the revamped defense look?

It is no secret the Miami defense let the team down after a stellar season from quarterback Cam Ward. Look no further than the regular-season finale against Syracuse, in which Miami gave up 42 points and lost its chance to play for an ACC championship. Coach Mario Cristobal fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and hired Corey Hetherman from Minnesota to lead the defense. The Hurricanes also hit the transfer portal hard to help their beleaguered secondary, adding three highly rated players in Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State). The three combined for 12 interceptions last season. Brantley was a three-year starter and will be counted on to lead. Miami also signed Emmanuel Karnley (Arizona) to help add depth. — Adelson

How will Boise State begin to replace Ashton Jeanty‘s production?

There is no easy or simple way to plug and play any one running back to replace Jeanty and the historic season he had last season. Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines probably will share the load at running back, but the Broncos’ offense might need to rely more on returning quarterback Maddux Madsen. With Jeanty as the focal point of the offense, Madsen game-managed his way through the season well and showed flashes of his potential toward the back end of Boise’s dream season. He finished with over 3,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns, but now that Jeanty’s gone, it’s likely that Madsen will need to make an even bigger leap and become the offensive leader for the Broncos, whose new offensive coordinator, Matt Miller, was also previously the team’s passing game coordinator. Spring ball will be the first tell on whether Boise starts to shift more to a pass-first offense. — Uggetti

Will Lane Kiffin’s portal pick-ups pay off?

Kiffin has brandished his reputation as college football’s “Portal King,” and his ability to build through the transfer portal will be put to the test again. Ole Miss furnished a 2024 playoff contender with 25 transfers, led by eventual first-team All-SEC defenders Walter Nolen, Princely Umanmielen and Trey Amos. All three are gone, but Ole Miss still holds the foundation of a dominant defensive line between returners Suntarine Perkins and Zxavian Harris. Alongside them, the Rebels turned to the portal again to reinforce their defense, bringing in edge rushers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU), linebacker Jaden Yates (Marshall) and a collection of defensive backs in Antonio Kite (Auburn), Sage Ryan (LSU), Jaylon Braxton (Arkansas) and Kapena Gushiken (Washington State). Wide receivers Harrison Wallace III (Penn State) and De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State) and tight end Luke Hasz (Arkansas) lead a cast of seven new pass catchers around quarterback Austin Simmons, a redshirt sophomore who is set to fill the shoes of three-year starter Jaxson Dart. Transfer offensive linemen Patrick Kutas (Arkansas) and Delano Townsend (UAB) should both slot into starting roles for Ole Miss, where offseason transfer turnover has become the norm. — Lederman

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Sports

Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

Published

5 hours ago

on

July 16, 2025

By

Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

    Close

      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

Continue Reading

Sports

MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

Published

5 hours ago

on

July 16, 2025

By

MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

Continue Reading

Sports

NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

Published

6 hours ago

on

July 16, 2025

By

NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

Continue Reading

Trending