The Alex Ovechkin Eras: Eight spans that define the career of the Great 8
The Capitals improved by 11 points in the standings in Ovechkin’s rookie season. He helped, but he couldn’t do it alone.
In 2008, Alex Ovechkin found himself onstage at a club in Falls Church, Virginia, pretending to play guitar and pumping his fist to the crowd of Capitals fans who were instructed to keep the energy up during filming.
This music video would be a perfect time capsule for the “Rock The Red” movement in Washington — in which the home stands would be a sea of red jerseys and shirts — and not just because Ovechkin’s rock star status went from figurative to literal. The Caps won the Southeast Division in 2007-08, returning to the playoffs after a three-season drought. Under head coach Bruce Boudreau, who took over after 21 games, they played an electric offensive game that catered to Ovechkin’s skills and created a renewed fan buzz.
On stage with Ovechkin were fellow members of “The Young Guns,” as the players would be known. Center Nicklas Backstrom would become a driving force behind Ovechkin’s goal-scoring domination. His biggest takeaway from playing alongside Ovechkin: “Probably explaining to him that he wasn’t always open, but he wanted the puck all the time anyway,” Backstrom said recently with a laugh.
Defenseman Mike Green, who was in the video, would pilot their power play and become a two-time Norris Trophy runner-up. Winger Alex Semin, Ovechkin’s young countryman, would become a 40-goal scorer. Beyond them were Brooks Laich, an essential “glue guy,” and, eventually, standout defensemen John Carlson and Karl Alzner.
But the music video was also demonstrative of the Capitals’ swagger, something else Ovechkin brought to the franchise. Washington lost in seven games to the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2008 Stanley Cup playoffs, but it was clear they were pointed toward greater success. Something Sidney Crosby’s Penguins had already achieved.
After losing Rookie of the Year to Ovechkin, Crosby won his first NHL MVP trophy as a 19-year-old in 2006-07. By 2008, he was playing for the Stanley Cup, losing in the Final to Detroit. Like Ovechkin, he had some new friends, too: Malkin, Kris Letang, Marc-Andre Fleury and Jordan Staal.
Ovechkin did Crosby one better between 2007-09: He became the first skater to win back-to-back Hart Trophies since Wayne Gretzky in 1985-87. (Goalie Dominik Hasek won consecutive MVPs from 1996-98). It was clear he was a franchise player, and Leonsis gave him a contract commensurate with that status: In 2008, Ovechkin signed a 13-year, $124 million deal he negotiated himself. The first $100 million contract in NHL history, it had its critics at the time, although they’d fall silent years later when his $9 million cap hit was re-contextualized as a bargain as the salary cap rose.
In 2008-09, Ovechkin scored 56 goals in the regular season to lead Washington to another division title and then had seven points in seven games to win his first playoff series over the New York Rangers — setting up the first meeting between Crosby and Ovechkin in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Game 2 of that series would provide one of the defining moments of their rivalry: The “Double Hat Trick” game in Washington, as both Crosby and Ovechkin completed hat tricks in the Capitals’ 4-3 win. Fans threw so many hats on the ice after Ovechkin’s third goal that Crosby asked if the officials “could make an announcement to ask them to stop.”
Ovechkin (14 points) outscored Crosby (13) in that series, but the Penguins outlasted the Capitals in seven games — advancing to win the Stanley Cup, which would become a recurring theme in their rivalry. Ovechkin had a chance to turn Game 7 in Washington’s favor with a breakaway in the first three minutes of the first period but was robbed by Fleury.
It was a missed opportunity. The Capitals would miss more of them to a much greater degree in the next few seasons.
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The importance of the double hat-trick game between Crosby and Ovechkin
“The Drop” discuss Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin’s first playoff meeting and the importance of their double hat-trick game.
The Crisis Era (2009-14)
Goals scored: 203
Ovechkin was given the Capitals’ captaincy in Jan. 2010 after Chris Clark was traded to Columbus. He scored another 50 goals in 2009-10 and was driving a team that had pushed deeper into the playoffs than it had in any season since 1998. Washington finished that campaign with a .738 points percentage and captured their first Presidents’ Trophy in franchise history — along with all the supernatural misfortune associated with being the league’s best regular-season team.
The Capitals faced the Montreal Canadiens, who ranked 16th out of 16 playoff teams in regular-season success. After dropping the opening game in overtime, Washington won three straight games. Then it happened: a combination of Montreal goalie Jaroslav Halak with the Capitals’ sputtering offense and unmistakable jitters led the Canadiens to win the series in seven games. The Washington offensive machine was limited to one goal in each of the final three losses. Ovechkin didn’t have a goal in the final two.
This wasn’t just playoff disappointment for Ovechkin’s Capitals, but postseason regression. It sparked the first wave of conversations about Washington as a playoff underachiever and whether the Caps’ regular-season offensive wizardry could ever translate to Stanley Cup success. Despite respectable postseason numbers, Ovechkin wasn’t immune to that criticism either.
Things briefly looked up in 2010-11. The Capitals won their division for the fourth straight time and then beat the Rangers in five games in the opening round, where Ovechkin had six points. He had four points in four games in the next round, but playoff embarrassment was getting old for the “Young Guns”: The Tampa Bay Lightning swept the Caps out of the playoffs.
Skepticism about Washington being able to get over the hump due to their style of play had morphed into a full-on crisis of faith. They slumped after a hot start in 2011-12, with Ovechkin going through a stretch of one goal in eight games. Boudreau paid for that slump with his job, as Washington fired him in Nov. 2011 after 22 games (12-9-1). Ovechkin’s relationship with his former coach was scrutinized. Some labeled the Capitals star a “coach killer” in the wake of the popular Boudreau’s dismissal.
“It is complete nonsense that I would get Bruce fired,” Ovechkin said to Yahoo! Sports in 2011. “How is it on me? How can I, a player, get a coach fired? How can I quit playing for the coach who gave me so much in my career?”
The Capitals hired Dale Hunter, a franchise icon who had been a head coach in Canadian junior hockey, to replace Boudreau, with the explicit mandate to get Ovechkin and his teammates to defend to a championship standard. In other words: fewer pretty passes, more blocked shots.
Ovechkin saw his ice time drop to under 20 minutes per game for the first time. He called the season “a hard year, mentally” and his stats reflected that: Ovechkin had 65 points, a career low, although his goal-scoring rose from 32 to 38 year over year.
The Capitals defeated the Boston Bruins in seven games in the first round that season and then were eliminated by the Rangers in seven games in the second round. Ovechkin had four points against New York.
Hunter left the Capitals after the season to return to juniors. The Capitals hired New Jersey Devils assistant coach Adam Oates to take over. While Ovechkin led the league in goals in both of Oates’ seasons in Washington, the Capitals’ postseason misfortunes continued: losing to the Rangers in the first round in 2013, after a lockout-shortened season in which Ovechkin won his third MVP; and then missing the playoffs in 2013-14 for the first time since 2006-07, and only the third time in Ovechkin’s career, which led to both Oates and GM McPhee being fired.
Ovechkin was now the lightning rod for criticism about the Capitals’ lack of playoff success and diminishing returns. The criticism was carried to extremes, like when The Hockey News published an article in May 2014 titled “Alex Ovechkin to KHL would be a blessing in disguise for Capitals.”
All of it left Ovechkin baffled and frustrated. He actually clarified after the season that he was still having fun and wasn’t going to ask for a trade.
“If you remember when Hunter was here and I didn’t score goals, you guys said, ‘Why don’t you score goals?’ I said, ‘My job [is] to block shots’. The whole world says, ‘Ovi stop playing what he used to play, he’s gone. We [are] never going to see him again,'” he said after the 2013-14 season. “I don’t want to turn my back on this kind of position again. I get paid to score goals. I scored 50.”
Ovechkin scored 203 goals in this era. That was seven fewer in this span than Steven Stamkos, the new goal-scoring marvel in the NHL. But while Ovechkin had his struggles, he was still piling on the goals to his career total.
In 2010, ESPN’s John Buccigross was among the first to publicly suggest that Ovechkin might break Gretzky’s goals record. “This will take a lot of health, a lot of hockey love and a lot of luck. But it’s not far-fetched.”
The Frustration Era (2014-17)
Goals scored: 136
General manager Brian MacLellan hired former Nashville Predators coach Barry Trotz to take over the Capitals for 2014-15. Other new faces had joined Washington in recent seasons, too, augmenting the core around Ovechkin: forwards Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson, defensemen Brooks Orpik and Dmitry Orlov and goaltender Braden Holtby. Soon, T.J. Oshie would arrive from the St. Louis Blues.
Trotz would have a critical relationship with Ovechkin, whose goal total rose back to 51 in Oates’ last season in Washington. Trotz was aware of Ovechkin’s reputation as a “coach killer” and accusations of selfish play. From their first meeting, Trotz got to know a player who liked being challenged and was summarily obsessed with winning the Stanley Cup.
MacLellan and Trotz agreed that surrounding Ovechkin with enough talent to ease his burden was the best move. Sometimes, that led to overcorrections — like when Ovechkin’s ice time dropped to 18:22 per game and his goals dropped to 33 in the 2016-17 season. But Trotz insisted it was to serve the ultimate goal.
Trotz got Ovechkin back to the playoffs in 2014-15, winning in seven against the New York Islanders before losing again to the Rangers in seven games. They were sixth in the NHL in offense and seventh in defense, after being 13th and 21st under Oates.
This started a run of three straight postseasons in which the Capitals had their run end in the second round. The next two instances had a common theme: Sidney Crosby and the Penguins.
Ovechkin’s archrival had two assists in the Penguins’ six-game victory over the Capitals in 2016, a series where Ovechkin had seven points to lead the Capitals. Five of the six games were determined by one goal. Like they did in 2009, the Penguins vaulted over the Capitals and eventually won the Stanley Cup against San Jose.
The same thing would happen in 2017. The Capitals eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs in six games to earn a rematch with Pittsburgh. This time, Crosby had seven points in six games and Fleury shut out the Capitals in Game 7 to eliminate Washington. Two rounds later, Crosby was hoisting the Cup after defeating Nashville.
Three Cup wins for Sid The Kid, each time at the expense of Ovechkin.
He was a nonfactor for much of it. Ovechkin criticized his own performance in Game 4. Trotz shifted his superstar winger to the third line against Pittsburgh in Game 5. In Games 6 and 7, Ovechkin didn’t register a point and was a minus-2 in the series finale.
As one veteran coach told ESPN at the time: “He just doesn’t have that body language that says, ‘I’m taking over.’ Normally, he’s like an assassin.”
The Capitals’ defeat in 2017 earned Washington the moniker of “saddest sports town” from the New York Times: “The issue is no longer whether the Capitals will ever win the Stanley Cup with Ovechkin and the immensely talented core around him. It’s whether this group can ever get past the playoffs’ second round.”
The Stanley Cup Era (2017-18)
Goals scored: 49
Alex Ovechkin was on stage again in front of Capitals fans. It was June 2018. His long beard hung over red party beads around his neck. On his head was something only previously attainable through photoshop edits: a hat with a Capitals logo and the words “Stanley Cup Champs.”
Ovechkin was giving a victory speech to a packed National Mall. “We’re not going to f—ing suck this year!” he bellowed. “We’re STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS. Yeaaaaaaaaah!”
All of those playoff disappointments. All of those harsh lessons learned. All of that criticism Ovechkin shouldered for his team, whether it was personally warranted or not. As he lifted and kissed the Stanley Cup — with his Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP beside him — the burdens he carried as a franchise savior and NHL superstar were lifted, too.
This is what catharsis looks like.
By this time, it was clear Ovechkin had a career that likely would put him in the Hall of Fame, with a goal total that was going to end up among the highest ever. Winning the Stanley Cup meant that there would be no caveats, no “but he never won a championship” detractions when it came to his hockey immortality.
The postseason was its own Eras Tour for Ovechkin’s Capitals. They defeated Columbus in the first round, coached by their old Rangers rival John Tortorella. Then came the third straight meeting with Sidney Crosby and the Penguins. After losing Game 1, the Capitals rallied to take a 3-2 series lead. Ovechkin, who had seven points in the series, had the primary assist on Kuznetsov’s overtime goal in Game 6 that eliminated Pittsburgh and put Ovi in a conference championship round for the first time.
With those demons from Pittsburgh exorcised, the Capitals defeated another postseason tormentor in the Lightning in seven games, shutting them out in Games 6 and 7. (Somewhere, Dale Hunter smiles at defense winning championships.)
The Final Boss was Vegas, as the Golden Knights shocked the NHL by advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season. That team’s architect? GM George McPhee, who drafted Ovechkin and surrounded him with the “Young Guns.” Their starting goalie? Marc-Andre Fleury, who had previously made Ovechkin’s postseason life miserable.
Washington won the Stanley Cup in five games. Ovechkin had five points in the series, including a goal in the clincher. He was finally a champion. Ovechkin ended the postseason with 15 goals in 24 games and won the Conn Smythe.
The Capitals did not, in fact, suck that year.
Elder Statesman Era (2018-23)
Goals scored: 215
This era is the greatest tribute to the transformative effect that winning the Stanley Cup had on Ovechkin.
Washington would lose in the first round in the next four seasons after skating the Cup, under head coaches Todd Reirden — who replaced Trotz when the coach had a contract dispute with the Capitals — and Peter Laviolette, who replaced Reirden in 2020. But the afterglow of the Cup was bright enough to obscure any disappointment. Ovechkin’s MVP performance — and his continued ascent up the all-time goal-scoring rankings — were a shield from any criticism.
Ovechkin led the NHL in goals in 2018-19 and 2019-20. In total, he won the Richard Trophy in seven of eight seasons from 2012-2020. He remained a dominant goal-scorer even as he aged into being one of the NHL’s elder statesmen, something emphasized by Ovechkin’s hair and beard having gone gray.
Another hallmark of Ovechkin’s maturity — and, more importantly, how winning the Cup unburdened him — was his burgeoning friendship with Crosby. The two would bond at the NHL All-Star Game, chatting during the skills competition, the old school watching the new school.
At the 2023 All-Star Game in South Florida, Crosby, 35, and Ovechkin, 37, was a dual-entry in the breakaway challenge trick-shot competition: skating in on a three-on-none with Ovechkin’s 4-year-old son, Sergei, who had watched the event with his father near the benches while wearing an “Ovi Jr.” jersey.
“Before we ever played a game against each other, there was a rivalry,” Crosby said at the time. “It was always set up that way. I think over time, you understand that it gets heated and intense on the ice. We both want to have success. But you appreciate you playing against each other for as long as it’s been.”
Off the ice, Ovechkin’s public statements courted controversy.
In 2017, Ovechkin announced that he was spearheading a social media campaign in support of Russian president Vladimir Putin that was called “Putin Team.” Ovechkin had been a vocal supporter of Putin before. “I never hid my relationship with our president, always openly supported him,” he said. “I’m certain that there are many of us that support Vladimir Putin. Let’s unite and show everyone a strong and united Russia.”
That support was put under a microscope in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The NHL suspended its dealings with the KHL in March 2022. It also terminated its broadcast agreement with Russian television. Russia has been frozen out of the hockey world since its invasion of Ukraine. It was banned, along with Belarus, from international hockey tournaments by the International Ice Hockey Federation starting in 2022. That ban was extended last month through the 2025-26 season.
Ovechkin received backlash from fans who were angered by the invasion — he has a photo with the Russian president as his social media profile.
“He’s my president. But like I said, I’m not in politics. I’m an athlete,” he said. “I hope everything is going to be done soon. It’s a hard situation right now for both sides.”
Ultimately, Ovechkin’s statement on the matter was a plea for peace: “Please, no more war. It doesn’t matter who is in the war — Russia, Ukraine, different countries — we have to live in peace.”
This era was also defined by Ovechkin’s decision to remain in Washington. He signed a five-year, $47.5 million deal in July 2021 to potentially play out his career with the Capitals — including his pursuit of Gretzky’s record. At that point, he was sixth on the all-time list, with 730 goals.
The Catching Gretzky Era (2024-present)
Goals scored: 67 (and counting)
One condition Ovechkin put on the Capitals before signing his extension in 2021: He wanted to play for a contender, not a rebuilding team.
Leonsis promised that a rebuild wouldn’t happen. “To me, a rebuild is when you look the players, the coaches, the fans in the eye and say we’re gonna be really, really bad. And if we were really, really bad, I don’t think Alex would break the record,” the owner said.
In turn, Ovechkin promised Leonsis that he’d stay in shape and his eyes wouldn’t be fixated on breaking Gretzky’s record of 894 goals, but on bringing another Stanley Cup to Washington.
The Capitals missed the playoffs in 2022-23 and decided to change coaches. They hired 42-year-old Spencer Carbery, an assistant coach with the Maple Leafs who had history in the Capitals’ farm system. A candid speaker and a strong tactician, Carbery returned Washington to the playoffs as a wild card in 2023-2024 and has them threatening to win the Presidents’ Trophy in 2024-25.
Leonsis kept his promise to Ovechkin, as the Capitals smartly added talent around him in players like forwards Dylan Strome and Pierre-Luc Dubois, defenseman Jakob Chychrun and goalie Logan Thompson. The prospect pipeline that had produced so many of Ovechkin’s teammates through the years gave him impact players in Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas. Considering how Crosby’s Penguins trended after their championship runs, the fact that the Capitals were a contender again was nothing short of remarkable.
Ovechkin scored 31 goals in 2023-24, but there was reasonable concern about whether he’d be able to catch Gretzky. He appeared to be slowing offensively, with an 11-goal and 10-point drop year over year. He had perhaps the worst playoff series of his career against the Rangers in 2024, with no goals or assists and five shots on goal in New York’s sweep.
Ovechkin put those concerns to rest with 17 goals in his first 20 games of the 2024-25 season, the hottest goal-scoring start of his career. Not even a fractured fibula could slow him down for long. After being injured on Nov. 18, he returned to the Capitals lineup on Dec. 28 — scoring another goal in his comeback game. As was often said about Ovechkin during a career built on good health: Russian Machine never breaks.
The gap between Ovechkin and Gretzky became one of single digits. Breaking the record was no longer just possible. It was inevitable.
0:53
Where does Ovechkin rank all time among NHL greats?
“The Drop” discusses where Alex Ovechkin falls in the conversation of greatest hockey players in NHL history as he closes in on Wayne Gretzky’s goal record.
The Legacy Era
Ovechkin’s contract expires after the 2025-26 season. He has indicated it might be his last one in the NHL. If healthy enough, finishing his playing career with Dynamo Moscow in the KHL is a possibility.
It won’t be the last of Ovechkin in North America, of course. He would have been a Hockey Hall of Fame player with or without the goals record, but will be inducted in Toronto the moment he’s eligible.
Where Ovechkin ranks on all-time NHL player lists is subjective — criticisms of his defensive game will undoubtedly put him below a more well-rounded player like Crosby, for example. Being “the greatest goal-scorer of all-time” is more quantifiable, especially when one considers how Ovechkin achieved his career total against goaltenders, defensive systems and a depth of talent that Gretzky didn’t face for most of his career.
However Ovechkin is remembered, his legacy is the culmination of all the eras he toured throughout his NHL career. The highs, the lows, the turbulence and the triumphs combined to create one of the singular superstars in NHL history.
This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.
The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.
Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?
As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.
Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.
How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman
Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.
How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon
Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.
How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith
Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.
How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan
Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.
How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.
How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll
Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.
How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam
Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.
How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.
How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize
Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore
Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.
How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan
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Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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