Lapsed fan’s guide to the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs: The NHL’s second season begins
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Greg Wyshynski
As a service to fans who have a general interest in the National Hockey League but have no idea what has happened since the Florida Panthers raised the Stanley Cup by defeating the Edmonton Oilers last June, we’re happy to provide this FAQ as a guide to the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs.
And for you die-hard puckheads: Here is your official refresher before the games begin Saturday. Enjoy!
Read more:
Full schedule
Megapreview
Playoff Central
Contender flaws
Where did all the usual suspects go?
History was made in the NHL this season, but not the kind that its most storied U.S. franchises wanted. The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs mark the first time that the Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings and New York Rangers have all missed the cut in the same postseason:
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Detroit was supposed to finally emerge from one but missed the playoffs for the ninth straight season, despite an in-season coaching change — the sixth season without a postseason berth under GM Steve Yzerman
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The Bruins fired their coach 20 games into the season, only to eventually ship out a number of veteran players at the trade deadline while missing the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons
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The Rangers went from the league’s best record to finishing eight points out of the playoffs, and could see major changes in the offseason
The New York Islanders, Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks were all 2024 playoff teams that didn’t make it back this season. Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins missed the playoffs for the third straight season.
So the 2025 postseason won’t have a number of glamour franchises and superstar players. But that just creates room in the spotlight for others to emerge.
Can the Panthers repeat?
The Stanley Cup champion Panthers finished third in the Atlantic Division with 98 points, down significantly from their 110-point season a year ago. Injuries were a factor: Captain Aleksander Barkov was limited to 67 games, and spiritual leader Matthew Tkachuk played only 52 games and hasn’t been in a game since the 4 Nations Face-Off in February. Top defenseman Aaron Ekblad was also limited to 56 games after being suspended 20 games for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program. The earliest he can return is Game 3 of the Panthers’ Battle of Florida first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
All of this is to say that we haven’t really seen what this version of the Panthers is going to look like with all systems go. There are some constants from last year’s Cup-winning roster: Sam Reinhart was brilliant again, with 81 points in 79 games and could win the Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward. Clutch playoff performers Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett, as well as defensive rock Gustav Forsling, are back for another run.
But it’s a different supporting cast. Defensemen Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and forwards Vladimir Tarasenko and Kevin Stenlund moved on after last season. Florida made two blockbuster additions to bolster their group before the trade deadline, acquiring defenseman Seth Jones from the Blackhawks and Bruins captain Brad Marchand.
The Panthers certainly have the players for a third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final and a repeat as champions. It’s just a matter of whether they all fit as snugly as they have previously under head coach Paul Maurice. If nothing else, the first round should give us our first look at Marchand and Tkachuk both yapping on the same team. Humanity might never be the same.
If they win the Battle of Florida, can the Lightning win the Cup?
The Lightning finished second in the Atlantic with around the same record as last season, but they feel like a much more dangerous team.
Tampa Bay led the NHL in goals per game, powered by winger Nikita Kucherov, who was the league’s top point scorer this season (121) while setting up Brayden Point (42 goals) and Jake Guentzel (41 goals) for dominant seasons. Winger Brandon Hagel had 90 points in 81 games, and was one of the NHL’s best all-around players; ditto center Anthony Cirelli (27 goals), who’s in the conversation for the league’s top defensive center this season.
On the blue line, former Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman led his teammates in average ice time by nearly two minutes.
But it’s the reemergence of star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy that has bolstered the Bolts’ Stanley Cup chances. He had his best season since 2020-21, and was recently named the league’s top goalie in a survey of his peers. If Vasilevskiy can carry that over to the postseason, where he always has been at his best, the Lightning could be in business.
Tampa Bay hasn’t escaped the first round since losing in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final to Colorado, which followed consecutive Cup wins for the Lightning. Perhaps seeking to recapture that magic, GM Julien BriseBois reacquired two players from their title reign: defenseman Ryan McDonagh, who has been outstanding this season after being traded from Nashville; and center Yanni Gourde, a trade- deadline pickup from Seattle who has fit right back in with the Lightning.
If they can get past their archrivals — admittedly, a big “if” — the potential for another boat parade in the bay isn’t out of the question.
What can we expect from the Battle of Ontario?
The NHL wild-card format exists to maximize the potential for rivals to meet in the postseason, and it worked like a charm in the Eastern Conference: Not only is there another Battle of Florida, but the Battle of Ontario has been reignited between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, the latter of whom finished in the first wild-card spot to end a seven-year playoff drought.
These rivals met four times between 2000 and 2004, with Toronto winning each time. We don’t want to say Senators fans are salivating at the chance to take down the Atlantic Division-leading Leafs, but the streets of Ottawa are currently flooded.
The Maple Leafs are still on their quixotic mission to win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967. As usual, there are reasons to believe. Winger Mitch Marner, an unrestricted free agent this summer, had 100 points in 80 games. Forwards William Nylander (45 goals) and Auston Matthews (77 points in 66 games) were dominant, while pending free agent John Tavares regained his point-per-game form.
Toronto’s hopes rest on the pads of goalies Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, who led the Leafs to the fourth-best team save percentage in the NHL in the regular season. But questions about their lack of playoff experience (a combined eight games) and ability to remain healthy linger.
The Senators’ playoff berth marks the first time Brady Tkachuk has participated in an NHL postseason — other than being a spectator at his brother’s games. He’s the driving force behind an Ottawa team with strong young talents in forward Tim Stutzle (76 points) and defenseman Jake Sanderson (55 points).
But the key is goaltender Linus Ullmark, acquired from the Bruins last summer. He had a solid regular season but has a career postseason record of 3-6 with a .887 save percentage, all with Boston. He has something to prove.
When Ovechkin re-signed with the Capitals, there was a promise made by Washington to remain a playoff contender around him as he chased down Gretzky so Ovechkin wasn’t just compiling goals in meaningless games. No one could have predicted the Capitals would retool to the point where they finished atop the Eastern Conference.
The Capitals were the second-best team offensively and finished in the top 10 defensively this season. Offseason bets on players such as forward Pierre-Luc Dubois, defenseman Jakob Chychrun and goalie Logan Thompson paid off, while homegrown talents Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael thrived — as did star defenseman John Carlson, who had his best season in years.
But the Capitals are a mystery in the playoffs. When they play coach Spencer Carbery’s system to perfection, they can beat anyone in the league. But beyond Ovechkin, there isn’t another established star difference-maker in the lineup. That has made some observers skeptical that their regular-season success could transfer over the playoffs. But what an incredible cap to an all-time season it would be if Ovechkin raised his second Stanley Cup — and his first as the NHL’s goal-scoring GOAT.
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Ovechkin tells McAfee his chase for the goal record was great for hockey
Alex Ovechkin joins “The Pat McAfee Show” to discuss his achievement of surpassing Wayne Gretzky as the all-time goals leader and the impact on the game.
Are the Devils toast without Jack Hughes?
New Jersey was well on its way to returning to the playoffs when it lost leading scorer and No. 1 center Hughes to a shoulder injury, which is expected to keep him out until next season’s training camp.
Hughes had 70 points in 62 games. Since Hughes went out, the Devils are 9-10-1 for a .475 points percentage, 23rd in the NHL in that span. They were also without top defenseman Dougie Hamilton, who was injured one game after Hughes went out. Hamilton returned to the lineup in their regular-season finale.
It’s hard to conceive that the Devils could win the conference without Hughes, but players such as center Nico Hischier and winger Jesper Bratt stepped up significantly in his absence. Whether the Devils make any noise in the playoffs comes down to their goaltending, and specifically Jacob Markstrom, who has the ability to steal games but hasn’t consistently shown this season — much like the team in front of him.
Is this the year Carolina breaks through for a championship run?
For years, the Hurricanes have fallen just short in the playoffs, losing in the conference finals twice and the second round three times under coach Rod Brind’amour. Usually the culprit has been their inability to get a key goal at a key time in a series.
Last season, they traded for Jake Guentzel, a proven playoff performer, but Carolina stalled out in the second round and Guentzel walked as a free agent. This season, they made a blockbuster trade with Colorado that saw the Hurricanes ship leading scorer Martin Necas to the Avs for Mikko Rantanen … only to then trade Rantanen to Dallas before the deadline, after the star winger declined to sign a contract extension in Raleigh. Carolina acquired 21-year-old forward Logan Stankoven in the deal, a talented scorer but not one yet on the level of Rantanen or Guentzel.
So the Hurricanes are right back where they’ve been: a grinding, aggressive puck possession team with an offense and defense both in the top 10 and the best penalty kill in the league. They have some offensive pop from players such as Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, but it’s saying something that Necas is still their third-leading scorer. They also have goaltenders in Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen that led the Canes to finishing 23rd in team save percentage (.889).
Yet a bounce here, a break there and a key goal in a key moment, and no one would be surprised to see Brind’Amour’s team break through in the East. It just seems a little less possible after the Rantanen revolving door.
Is Dallas vs. Colorado peak postseason drama?
With due respect to the geographic rivalry series in the Eastern Conference, no series has more compelling storylines than the Stars vs. the Avalanche in a matchup of Central Division rivals.
Consider that the Stars were picked by many to win the Stanley Cup this season, while the Avalanche have aggressively retooled their team from the crease out after losing to Dallas in the second round last season, seeking another Cup win after raising it in 2022.
Consider that the Avalanche decided Rantanen was not in their long-term plans, traded him to Carolina and then watched as the Hurricanes traded him to Dallas, where he signed an eight-year, $96 million deal. Rantanen has forged a reputation as one of the NHL’s top postseason scorers. He’d like nothing more than to remind the Avalanche why that is.
Consider that the Stars are taking on one of the best teams in the NHL with two major injury concerns. Top defenseman Miro Heiskanen hasn’t played since Jan. 28 because of a knee injury. There has been speculation out of Dallas that he could sit out this series, but GM Jim Nill seemed to indicate recently that there was a chance he could return in the first round. Meanwhile, star winger Jason Robertson sustained a lower-body injury in the Stars’ regular-season finale. His status was unclear for the Avalanche series. According to Betalytics, Colorado’s chances to win the series increase by over two percentage points if Robertson can’t play;
Finally, consider that Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog is in the midst of one of the NHL’s greatest comebacks in recent memory. His most recent game in the league was June 26, 2022, when he and the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup. He sat out the following season after right knee surgery. He underwent cartilage transplant surgery and sat out 2023-24 and most of this season. Landeskog had been skating with the Avalanche and then returned to competitive play with the AHL Colorado Eagles. This incredible comeback journey could see him return to NHL action in Game 1 against Dallas.
This matchup has enough storylines for 10 series. It’s also a battle that could easily produce this season’s eventual Stanley Cup winner.
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Tyler Seguin assists on goal 16 seconds into return from injury
Tyler Seguin sets up Mason Marchment’s goal in his first NHL action since December 1.
Besides Rantanen, who are the other familiar faces in new places who could affect the playoffs?
As mentioned, the Avalanche aggressively added to their group all season, including a total makeover of their goaltending that saw former Sharks goalie Mackenzie Blackwood take over the crease. They also added forwards Brock Nelson (Islanders) and Charlie Coyle (Bruins), as well as defensemen Ryan Lindgren (Rangers) and former Avalanche player Erik Johnson (Flyers) before the trade deadline.
In addition to trading Coyle and Marchand, the Bruins also sent veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo to the Maple Leafs.
Ottawa bolstered its team for now and in the future by acquiring center Dylan Cozens from Buffalo. Tampa Bay added forward Oliver Bjorkstrand in the trade with Seattle that also got them Gourde.
Which rookies could make an impact in the playoffs?
If the Montreal Canadiens are going to upset the Washington Capitals, two rookies are going to have to make a major impact. Defenseman Lane Hutson is the favorite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year after 66 points in 82 games, leading all first-year players. Forward Ivan Demidov, a dynamic offensive star in the KHL, signed with Montreal late in the season and made an immediate impact. He’s one to watch.
Among the other rookies who’ll be counted on in the playoffs are Stankoven, who had 37 points in 77 games with Dallas and Carolina; forward Zack Bolduc (36 points) of the St. Louis Blues; forward Jackson Blake (34 points) of the Hurricanes; forward Mackie Samoskevich (31 points) of the Panthers; and center Mavrik Bourque (25 points) of the Stars.
Can Winnipeg break the Presidents’ Trophy curse?
The Jets finished with 116 points to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NHL and with it the Presidents’ Trophy. Congratulations, and we’re sorry.
The Presidents’ Trophy curse is well-known hockey lore among players and fans. There have been 39 winners of the hardware since it was introduced in 1985-86. Only eight teams that finished first overall went on to win the Stanley Cup. For context, seven Presidents’ Trophy winners lost in the opening round. It has only gotten worse since the NHL moved to a wild-card format in 2013-14: No Presidents’ Trophy winner has gone on to play for the Stanley Cup, let alone win it, while two teams (Tampa Bay in 2019 and Boston in 2023) lost in the opening round.
The Jets are on a mission after two straight seasons of losing in the first round in five games. They talked down regular-season accomplishment all season, with a focus on the postseason. Winnipeg had the fourth-best offense in the NHL, powered by the league’s best power play. More importantly, they had the NHL’s best goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck, last year’s Vezina Trophy winner who finished atop the league in both traditional stats and analytics. Like the rest of his team, Hellebuyck wants to flip the script on his own underwhelming numbers from last postseason.
The Jets face a Blues team that made the playoffs after a torrid 12-game winning streak in March, as part of an 18-3-0 run. The Blues fired coach Drew Bannister after 22 games, when Jim Montgomery became available after Boston fired him. After the 4 Nations Face-Off, St. Louis finally found its stride under Montgomery: first in 5-on-5 offense and second in defense during the winning streak.
St. Louis won’t be an easy out for Winnipeg. As Blues goalie Jordan Binnington showed at 4 Nations for Canada, he can rise to meet the moment.
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Cole Perfetti goes five-hole to win shootout for Jets
Cole Perfetti seals the victory for the Jets with a sweet shot against the Blackhawks.
Is the fourth time the charm for the Los Angeles Kings?
The Kings had an outstanding regular season under new coach Jim Hiller, who guided L.A. to a .648 points percentage, the second highest in franchise history. They found a goalie in Darcy Kuemper, who had some of the best numbers of his career in back of the second-best defensive team in the NHL.
And what did all of this earn the Kings? A fourth straight first-round matchup against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
The Kings lost in seven games in 2022, six games in 2023 and five games last season. Obviously, L.A. fans would like that trend to end. If the Kings finally get past the Oilers, their combination of defensive dominance and offensively opportunistic veterans such as Adrian Kempe (35 goals), Anze Kopitar (67 points) and Kevin Fiala (35 goals) could be a force in the West.
Will Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl finish the story?
The Edmonton Oilers came within one victory from hoisting the Stanley Cup last season, rallying from a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 before losing to the Panthers.
This season has had its challenges for Edmonton. Evander Kane sat out the regular season because of knee injury. McDavid and Draisaitl both sat out because of injuries, but Draisaitl was the league’s top goal scorer with 52 in 71 games. Steady defenseman Mattias Ekholm will sit out the Kings series because of an injury. The Oilers played inconsistent defense in front of goaltending that ranked 16th in team save percentage.
If the Oilers are going to get back to the Stanley Cup Final, they’ll need their stars to carry them, their supporting cast to step up and goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard to play well enough not to cost Edmonton a series. A lot broke the Oilers’ way last season. The road’s even tougher in the West this postseason.
Which team is the X factor in the 2025 playoffs?
The Vegas Golden Knights‘ ceiling might be the Stanley Cup, which they won for the first and only time in 2023. But it has been difficult to get a handle on how good they can be given some of their lineup absences: Only five Vegas players played over 80 games this season. But the Knights made it work: They finished third in team defense, fifth in offense and first in the Pacific Division.
There are difference-makers all over the lineup. Jack Eichel had a career season, with 93 points in 77 games. Pavel Dorofeyev had a breakout with 35 goals, with Tomas Hertl — always a postseason standout — right behind him, with 32 goals. Mark Stone played 66 games but had 67 points in them. Vegas has as solid a defense corps as you’ll find in the West, in front of goalie Adin Hill, who overcame a slow start to have a solid season.
The Knights draw a Minnesota team in the first round that clinched a playoff spot in their last game of the season, and are riding some good vibes now that Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek are both healthy. There’s always a chance that Marc-Andre Fleury helps author an upset against his former team in the last playoff run of his career. But more likely, it’ll be Vegas moving on — it’s just a question of how long their run will last.
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Jack Eichel lights the lamp
Jack Eichel lights the lamp
So who wins the Cup?
There’s no juggernaut ready to slice through the playoffs to the Cup Final. A handful of teams have a rightful claim to the throne and none would be surprising should they ascend to it.
According to ESPN BET, the Avalanche are the favorites to win it all, followed by the Panthers, Hurricanes, Golden Knights, Oilers and Jets.
The Leafs have the longest Stanley Cup drought, having not won since 1967. The Oilers actually have the second longest, having last won the Cup in 1990.
There are 10 current NHL teams that have yet to win the Stanley Cup. Three of them are in this playoff bracket: Wild, Senators and Jets.
Will it be a team that has never hoisted the Cup before? Will it be a team that has been on the precipice of a championship like Carolina and Dallas? Will it be a recent winner, cycling back to another title? Your guess is as good as ours.
Enjoy the Stanley Cup playoffs, everyone — the best postseason in sports.
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Kiley McDaniel
The 2025 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 boards.
The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.
In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.
Which direction will the Nationals go — and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
Since this is a last-minute update on what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my mock draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.
Draft tracker: Results, analysis for every Day 1 pick
More coverage: Mock draft 3.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
1. Washington Nationals
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
There have been a lot of rumors flying around over the past few days about what is happening in the wake of the firing of GM Mike Rizzo.
The industry feeling is that what has changed is 1) Anderson is a little more likely to be the pick mostly because Holliday is now a little less likely to be the pick, and 2) taking a bigger cut is a real option, with Eli Willits the main cut-rate possibility, though Aiva Arquette has also been mentioned.
All but Willits are advised by Scott Boras, and he’ll never tip his hand until he has to; now is not the time yet. Nothing is decided here and price will be a factor. If I turned this in 15 minutes before the draft, the Nats might still not have made the decision, so I’ll stick with what seems most likely, even if I don’t feel great about it. Landon Harmon is a rumored later round, overslot target.
For context, a scouting director for a team picking in the top 10 said I shouldn’t feel confident about anything happening in the top three picks specifically, adding, “I’m hearing there’s wars happening in all of those rooms right now” (as of Friday night). I ran that by another director picking up high: “Yeah, we’re hearing the same thing.”
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
I’m going to stick with Doyle because he makes the most sense for what the Angels have proved they’re looking for in recent drafts: a polished, quick-moving college player who will come at a savings.
I’ve heard at least six players seriously connected to this pick in the past few days: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish and Willits. There are a couple more I’ve been told are under consideration who I’m not taking seriously as options here.
It could be any of these players based on final conversations and bonus pricing info on each player coming in at the last minute. Doyle has a real shot to slide to No. 9 or No. 10 if he doesn’t go here, so he is motivated to give a competitive number.
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Liam Doyle’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
The hot rumor of the past few days is that Tyler Bremner will be the pick here at big savings, and that holds up to further analysis because, in style, Bremner and Hernandez (long connected to this pick) are pretty similar.
It’s pretty widely known that Anderson is the No. 1 player for Seattle and will be the pick if he gets here, which still has maybe a 20-30% chance of happening.
If Anderson isn’t here, I think the decision comes down to Bremner at the most savings, Irish at a little less savings or Hernandez at the least savings, broadly speaking. Some sources have said Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also in play here, but they seem like tertiary options.
I think Bremner having more support in the No. 11-15 area that was reflected in the last mock will raise his price a bit to where Hernandez will be the pick, but this one is also wide open at the moment and will come down to a last-minute bonus price check if Anderson isn’t available.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
There has been some waffling late in the process from sources who think maybe the Rockies wouldn’t pay the overslot price to get Holliday down here — but much of what I hear very late in the process is wrong or intentional misinformation, so I’ll stick with what I’ve been hearing for a literal year.
I think the other options for Colorado if Holliday doesn’t get here are all college pitchers: Anderson, Arnold and Witherspoon, with Willits and Arquette getting some mentions.
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Ethan Holliday’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
Willits seems securely in play at the top two picks and possibly at No. 4, so the Cardinals landing him here would be considered a solid outcome. I think Anderson and Holliday are the primary targets for this pick and Willits is next up, with Arnold and Irish as the possible underslot options.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
It sounds like Hernandez or Willits will be the pick if either is here, so the Pirates are rooting for Seattle to either land Anderson or opt for a cheaper alternative to Hernandez.
Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette and Irish are believed to be the four leading options here. Arnold has the most late support, but this one might also come down to money.
I hope you feel sympathy for me having to do this in public when none of these teams know what it will do and won’t for hours.
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Jamie Arnold’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
I think this will come down to Parker, Iris, and Billy Carlson — and I think Parker has the edge.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
I think the Jays will pick Parker if he gets here and will consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available here. This decision seems to come down to Arquette or Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 13
I’m getting some late-breaking info that Irish is more of a fit here than Hall, so shuffling a few picks that follow to accommodate for that.
Cincinnati seems to be the floor if Hernandez or Doyle slip, and otherwise the Reds seem to be the ceiling for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon and Carlson are also in the mix.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be No. 7 to No. 12 (or maybe No. 14). I think the White Sox really want to land the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob) but can’t get JoJo to this pick.
The White Sox have been all over high school hitters all spring, and Carlson gets the nod over Gavin Fien.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is picking up steam at this pick, and I think his floor is now Boston’s pick at No. 15. It’s a bit surprising he could go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner clearly has been getting interest in the top half of the first round that just hadn’t leaked out to the industry at large until late. I think this will be a college player, likely a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Brendan Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
A few names shuffled around late Sunday, and now one of the Rangers’ top targets will be available. Marek Houston is also in the mix here.
I think Hall and Carlson are the targets here, but neither will make it to the pick, so Cunningham will become the pick, narrowly over Josh Hammond. I was hearing Cunningham would fit more 20-30, and the late chatter is that he has multiple homes in the teens. As with the White Sox, the belief all spring was that the Rangers want a prep hitter here.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
In a last-minute update, I shuffled four players and Witherspoon fits here as a solid value.
Irish is in play at most picks starting at No. 2 all the way down to the middle of the first round, but I think his slide would stop here. The Giants have long been tied to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a long shot at this pick, but gone by their next one), with Andrew Fischer getting some love as well.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25
I think this pick will come down to Cunningham or Sean Gamble in this situation; Gamble could make it to their next pick.
The Rays are tied to prep position players for later picks and could pull a shocker, as I projected in my previous mock, by taking Jaden Fauske here.
I think Hall, Carlson and Cunningham are the main targets, but none of them is available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have a chance to land Fauske at their next pick.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
I’ll stick with Fien here as one of the steadiest projections all spring. It sounds like Tyler Bremner will be the pick if he gets here, but that’s now looking unlikely.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
Kilen fits the type of prospect the Twins have targeted for a while. I could see Houston, Caden Bodine or Gage Wood being options here, too.
Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
I think the Cubs are targeting in-game power here, and Hammond makes a lot of sense. They’ve scouted Quentin Young pretty hard this spring as well, but this is too early for that kind of risk. Xavier Neyens, Wehiwa Aloy and Wood all fit, as well.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
I think Cunningham is the target here, but he isn’t available in this scenario. Hammond and Bodine are also mentioned here and I think Slater de Brun will be the selection at Arizona’s next pick.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
LaViolette should go in one of the next three picks and fits Baltimore’s style. He won’t get to the Orioles’ next pick, but they may be able to float targets down there with their extra pool muscle, as covered in the previous mock.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
Summerhill has a very unclear and wide range of teams that are interested but could fit here. Daniel Pierce, Houston, Bodine and Coy James are all in the mix for this pick.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think LaViolette, Neyens, Southisene and Aloy are all in the mix here, along with possible underslot deals for Davalan or de Brun.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
It now looks like Bremner won’t get here, but the Braves have been tied to Wood for about a month. Otherwise, the hit-first shortstops like Houston and Pierce are tied here.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Hammond seems to be the target, but he doesn’t make it to K.C. in this edition. I think the Royals will take a prep pitcher with one of their high picks, likely either Watson or Fisher, and maybe another later on Day 1. Eyanson and Wood are two college arms being considered.
Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69
James has a good shot at being a Tiger, and some of Detroit’s primary options go right ahead of this spot in this scenario, so I think this could be a curveball pick to most viewers.
Fauske is another possibility here, along with Kruz Schoolcraft, Pierce, Watson, Dax Kilby (more at their next pick), de Brun (same), Southisene and Fischer.
Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
Rank: 45
There’s lots of late momentum for Eyanson here, which is counter to the history of A.J. Preller’s time making picks for the Padres, so I’m going out on a limb.
Kilby on a cut, Young, Schoolcraft, Alec Blair, Josh Owens and de Brun all seem like high schoolers in the mix here.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Philly normally takes high-ceiling high school players, but this is too good of a value to pass up. Matthew Fisher, Sean Gamble and Blair are the leading prep targets, and Fischer is also mentioned.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
Kane Kepley on a big cut, Devin Taylor on a smaller one, Kilby and Watson are all options here.
Note: No. 27 is the final pick of the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. You can read mock draft 3.0 for my thinking and potential targets for teams making the comp and second-round picks that follow and see the full draft order here.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
34. Detroit Tigers: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
37. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
39. New York Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
40: Los Angeles Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
43. Miami Marlins: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Athletics: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
49. Washington Nationals: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
64. Cleveland Guardians: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Dickinson, 2B, LSU
69. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Michigan State
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: Easton Carmichael, C, Oklahoma
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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