Passan predicts MLB megadeals: Who will be next to get $100 million? $300 million? $600 million?!
Almost as soon as Juan Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million free agent contract with the New York Mets over the winter, a question was bandied about in front offices across the sport: Who is going to be the player to break Soto’s record for overall value?
Answering that was harder than it seemed, partly because Soto’s deal shattered all previous ones (Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million contract had a present value of less than $500 million), but also because a number of players who would have been threats had signed contract extensions already. To even be considered for a deal of that magnitude takes the rare combination of age and superstardom, and with Bobby Witt Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll and Jackson Chourio all locked up long term, the candidates are severely limited. The extension months later for San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill erased one of the prime candidates to dethrone Soto.
Expanding the exercise to those executives and agents made for a far more interesting question: Who are the $100 million-plus players in the game right now?
The nine-figure contract isn’t as uncommon as it used to be — more than 150 have been given to players since the first was signed by Kevin Brown in 1998 — but it remains perhaps the clearest threshold of an excellent player. And so off we went, on a quest with baseball insiders to identify the next generation of $100 million players.
Here are the names that came up most, from the crowded $100 million tier all the way to the superstar deemed most likely to land the next $600 million megadeal.
(Not included in the below list are players who already are part of the nine-figure club, even if they’re in line for another $100 million-plus deal. Those include Witt, Carroll, Merrill, Yordan Alvarez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.)
Jump to: $100M | $200M | $300M | $400M | $500M | $600M
$100 million
Note: Because the $100 million-plus deal isn’t nearly the rarity it once was, we’ve broken this tier into four categories: players in each of the next three free agent classes, plus those who aren’t set to hit free agency until the 2028-29 offseason or later. Also included with each group is a list of players who are more than capable of earning their way to nine figures, but aren’t yet there.
Class of 2025-26
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets: After a brutal free agency in which he sought upward of four times the $54 million over two years that he ultimately signed for in January, Alonso has put himself comfortably into the $100 million category with a shot at $200 million assuming he opts out of his current deal after the season. The same issues teams had last winter remain. He’s in his 30s. He plays a position teams don’t prioritize. But it’s impossible to ignore his production and ability to stay on the field as well as his evolution: Alonso actually has more walks than strikeouts this season, an exceedingly rare quality for a hitter with so much power.
Michael King, SP, San Diego Padres: Two years ago, King was a reliever for the New York Yankees. Now he’s the best pitcher in the class. King’s sinker and slider have elite movement, and his command of his four-pitch arsenal is exceptional. He strikes out oodles of hitters, maintains his velocity and could wind up with a bigger deal in free agency than his teammate with flashier stuff who’s listed next on this list.
Dylan Cease, SP, San Diego Padres: Cease has long been considered the gem of a strong crop of starters scheduled to hit free agency after this season, and it’s easy to see why. His slider is a weapon. His fastball sits at 97 mph. The stuff is nasty. But he never has been able to avoid walks, and that will scare away some suitors. Cease is much better than the 5.61 ERA he currently sports (a 3.34 FIP portends better results) and he should get a five-plus-year deal, but $200 million-plus is probably out of reach because of the free passes.
Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: While Gallen’s stuff has ticked down this season and he turns 30 in August, he has been a consistent enough innings eater with a high enough strikeout rate to warrant inclusion among the nine-figure aspirants. His elevated walk rates each of the past two seasons are of concern for a pitcher whose fastball sits at 93, so Gallen needs to pare those back if he wants to stay in this group.
Framber Valdez, SP, Houston Astros: He’s throwing harder than ever, which is the sort of thing that helps persuade teams to invest in a starting pitcher who will be 32 next Opening Day. Listed at 5-foot-11, 232 pounds, Valdez doesn’t have the sort of body that tends to age well, but he throws lots of innings, doesn’t walk hitters, wields plenty of postseason experience and limits home runs. That is an exciting group of attributes, even if sinkerballers aren’t the sexiest signings in today’s strikeout-focused game.
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays: Two years ago, Bichette looked like a lock for $300 million. A brutal 2024 soured his stock, and while his average has climbed early this season, the power he showed in three consecutive 20-plus-homer seasons remains AWOL. Because he’ll be a 28-year-old shortstop, Bichette can get nine figures. He also could opt for a short-term deal with opt-outs to maximize his opportunities to hit the market after a strong season.
Kyle Schwarber, DH, Philadelphia Phillies: A designated hitter who’s going to be 33 next Opening Day getting a nine-figure deal? Schwarber is an outlier in so many other respects, so why not here, too? He is terminally productive. He is an exceptional clubhouse leader. Nobody would blink at giving him $25 million a year, and a four-year ask — particularly in a class weak on high-end bats — is eminently reasonable.
Contenders: 2B Luis Arraez, SP Jack Flaherty, CF Cedric Mullins, 1B Josh Naylor.
Class of 2026-27
Freddy Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: The class of 2026-27 is shaping up to be an all-time weak group of free agents. Peralta is no sure thing to be a nine-figure player, but since joining Milwaukee’s rotation in 2021, he has the 11th-best ERA+ of any pitcher with 100-plus starts. Of those ahead of him, six have signed for $100 million-plus, and the others are Tarik Skubal (the top player in the class of ’26-27), Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Sonny Gray. Peralta is showing no signs of aging, throwing harder this year than ever, and he’ll be 30 on Opening Day after his free agency.
Contenders: OF Randy Arozarena, 3B Alec Bohm, 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF Adolis Garcia, 2B Nico Hoerner, IF Gavin Lux, SP Jesus Luzardo, SP Casey Mize, SP Brady Singer, OF Seiya Suzuki, OF Daulton Varsho.
Class of 2027-28
Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles: Two years ago, he would have been in the $300 million group. After last year, $200 million. And Rutschman could still very easily find himself in either. For now, though, the lack of thump in his bat and poor catching metrics have soured teams on the prospect of handing Rutschman franchise-player money. Also important: Catchers simply don’t get paid like other positions because teams worry about their long-term health. The biggest deal ever for a catcher is Joe Mauer’s for $184 million, and the biggest for a free agent catcher is J.T. Realmuto’s at $115.5 million.
Shane McClanahan, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: When he’s healthy, McClanahan is a top-10 pitcher in baseball, and he still has plenty of time to take his spot in the $200 million group. But for now, after sitting out 2024 because of his second Tommy John surgery, and all of 2025 so far because of a nerve issue in his throwing arm, McClanahan belongs in this category.
Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros: One of the sneaky steadiest players in baseball. Peña isn’t much of a threat to finish high in MVP voting, but his floor is higher than most. He’s just good, a consistent four-win player, and if he can carry that for three more seasons, he’ll reach free agency at 30 as a pretty good comparable to Willy Adames, who just cashed in for $182 million as a 29-year-old over the winter.
MacKenzie Gore, SP, Washington Nationals: No other pitcher in the class has the ceiling of Gore, who will be a 29-year-old free agent. His 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings leads all of MLB this year, and if Gore can keep controlling his walks and limit the home runs he gives up, he’s a $200 million player. Even in the absence of that, Gore’s arsenal plays up significantly when he can spot it, and teams are always willing to bet on a pitcher with strikeout stuff whose age starts with a 2.
William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers: His lack of slug this year is a bit worrisome (he has only three home runs in 117 at-bats) and a continuation of it would thrust Contreras back into eight figures. But he still hits the ball very hard — if not consistently — and he’s a weapon behind the plate with his arm. One potential issue: Framing won’t have nearly the value it does now by the time Contreras is a free agent because of the expected implementation of the automated ball-strike challenge system.
Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians: Kwan is a delightful player. He hits for a high average, rarely strikes out, runs the bases with supreme intelligence and can play a mean left field. At the same time, nobody with his perceived profile — an offensive game personified by batting average — has ever signed a nine-figure deal. This is as much a bet on Kwan’s game evolving slightly, as well as his all-around excellence, as anything, and his career-best .467 slugging percentage so far this season is a good sign.
Joe Ryan, SP, Minnesota Twins: Ryan might be the best under-the-radar pitcher in the big leagues, a consistent strikeout producer whose walk rate over the past three seasons ranks sixth among all big league starters. If Ryan can limit home runs — and he’s doing so this season compared with his past two — he’ll secure his spot in the nine-figure club, even as he turns 32 two months after Opening Day in 2028.
Pablo López, SP, Minnesota Twins: López was set to reach free agency last winter but signed a four-year, $73.5 million extension in April 2023. Though he will be 32 when the 2028 season begins, he is inducing more groundballs than ever and limiting home runs, two excellent signs for his future value. López is among the smartest pitchers in baseball, the sort of thing that will give teams peace of mind even as he ages.
Contenders: SP Sandy Alcantara, 2B Ozzie Albies, UT Brendan Donovan, SP Tanner Houck, SP Nick Lodolo, 3B Isaac Paredes, CF Luis Robert Jr., 2B Bryson Stott.
Class of 2028-29 or later
Note: Players in this category are listed in order of age on Opening Day the season after they reach free agency. Players who have yet to debut in the major leagues are not included.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: One good year and Caminero will graduate from the $100 million tier. A few standout seasons and the cost will rise multiplicatively. Beyond his immense power, the most alluring thing about Caminero is his age. He’s set to reach free agency in 2031 at 27. And if he does so coming off a strong season, Caminero — now 21 — will get a megadeal of at least $300 million and probably more.
Eury Pérez, SP, Miami Marlins: How is a player who’s currently on the shelf after Tommy John surgery — who has thrown fewer than 100 major league innings — in line to join the nine-figure club? Well, for starters, Pérez was really, really good when he was healthy. More than that, though, he debuted just 27 days after his 20th birthday, and Pérez is the only player in this entire assessment who will hit free agency at 26 years old. Perhaps elbow reconstruction will rob Pérez of his triple-digit fastball velocity or the tilt on his slider. If Pérez’s stuff returns, though, he’ll quickly belong in the $200 million group — or even higher.
Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals: Nobody should question Winn’s defensive bona fides. His bat will determine his financial ceiling, and Winn has plenty of time to develop. What’s important to remember: He plays a position that gets paid in free agency, and he’ll turn 28 just before Opening Day in 2030. If Winn is even slightly above average, that’s a $100 million player. If he’s anything more, the number could be massive.
CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals: Between his age when he hits free agency after the 2028 season (28), the position he plays (shortstop) and his power-speed combination (.284/.333/.523 with four home runs and six stolen bases this season), Abrams has a chance to be a rare free agent. Abrams won’t get there until he starts hitting the ball harder and more consistently — and perhaps moves off shortstop, where he’s average at best defensively.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs: Thus far, Crow-Armstrong has rejected entreaties from the Cubs regarding an extension. Chicago offered a deal in the $75 million range. If Crow-Armstrong keeps up even a reasonable facsimile of his production, he will vault into this $200 million category by this winter, and by the time he’s a free agent after the 2030 season, it could be twice that. The only thing keeping him from it now, frankly, is plate discipline.
Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels: Because he plays for the Angels, Neto is wildly underappreciated. And as a shortstop who will hit free agency at 28 (and turn 29 in January 2030), he could easily vault himself into the $200 million-plus group. Neto packs huge power into a slight frame, is fearless on the basepaths and is well above average on defense.
Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds: Had Greene not signed a six-year extension with a club option, he would have been a near-lock for the $200 million club. He still could get there anyway, entering the 2030 season at 30. Greene has halved his career walk rate this season while maintaining gaudy strikeout numbers, and with his MLB-best 99.3 mph average fastball, it’s the sort of power stuff that get teams excited.
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Atlanta Braves: This is a bet on Schwellenbach’s array of stuff and mature mound presence. Suggesting a soon-to-be-25-year-old with fewer than 200 big league innings will warrant nine figures is risky. He doesn’t reach free agency until after the 2030 season. But if there’s anyone to bet on, it’s a pitcher with extreme athleticism whose fastball sits 97 mph and is one of six pitches he throws with tremendous command.
Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros: The pitcher with the best ERA in the AL over the past calendar year comes with power stuff and a burgeoning ability to control it. Brown has entertained taking an extension in past seasons — and should be glad he didn’t. Because if he can pair productivity and health, he will easily surpass $100 million and be a good bet to blow past $200 million.
Cole Ragans, SP, Kansas City Royals: The fear of Ragans’ injury history — back-to-back Tommy John surgeries and more than three years without throwing in a professional game — will always hang over his future. His brilliance over the past two years can’t be overstated, though, and as long as his left arm remains intact, Ragans will merit inclusion in this group.
George Kirby, SP, Seattle Mariners: No, he hasn’t thrown a big league pitch this year because of a shoulder issue, and, yes, he’ll be 31 when he debuts after signing a free agent deal. But Kirby’s first three big league seasons have been an exercise in consistent quality. Nobody in the game’s history has struck out as many hitters over such a span while walking as few as Kirby has in his 89 career starts. (Right behind Kirby’s 484-to-64 ratio is Greg Maddux at 488 to 65.) It’s a unique profile, one that won’t lack interest and could end up at $200 million-plus.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: Perdomo just signed a four-year, $45 million extension with a club option that bought out three free agent seasons and will leave him as a free agent at 31. Perdomo has been brilliant this year, nearly matching his career high in home runs, getting on base at a .400 clip and walking more than he strikes out. And there are few better with the glove, easily positioning him to cash in once free agency beckons.
Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants: Like Perdomo, Webb signed a multiyear deal that bought out three years of free agency, and he’ll be 32 when he’s a free agent following the 2028 season. With his sinker-slider-changeup trio, consistent command, a high groundball rate and a low home run rate, Webb, even at that age, is primed to be in high demand.
Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox: He was originally on the $200 million list, but his age is a complicating factor. When Duran reaches free agency after the 2028 season, he will already be 32. And as dynamic a player as he is, outfielders who rely on their legs tend not to age well. That said, a $100 million-plus deal would be one hell of a consolation prize.
Contenders: OF Wilyer Abreu, C Francisco Alvarez, SP Shane Baz, SP Taj Bradley, SP Kris Bubic, 1B Michael Busch, OF Kerry Carpenter, OF Colton Cowser, OF Dylan Crews, CF Brenton Doyle, C Yainer Diaz, 2B Jackson Holliday, SP Jared Jones, SP Jack Leiter, SP Nick Lodolo, SP Rhett Lowder, SP Matthew Liberatore, 1B Kyle Manzardo, 2B Matt McLain, SP Max Meyer, SP Bryce Miller, RP Mason Miller, OF Lars Nootbaar, C Logan O’Hoppe, SP Reese Olson, OF Andy Pages, 1B Vinnie Pasquantino, OF Heliot Ramos, 1B Ben Rice, OF Cam Smith, 1B Tyler Soderstrom, SP Jose Soriano, OF Kyle Stowers, 1B Spencer Torkelson, 2B Brice Turang, SS Anthony Volpe, C Austin Wells, IF Jordan Westburg, SS Jacob Wilson, SP Bryan Woo.
$200 million
Oneil Cruz, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates: Cruz looks as if he’s finally figuring it out at the plate. His home run rate has jumped. He has 14 steals in 32 games after swiping a career-best 22 in 146 games last year. His walk rate is the fifth best in baseball. His strikeouts are down. All that’s separating him from stardom is a ghastly glove in center, where the 6-foot-7 Cruz moved from shortstop. Even if right field is his ultimate destination, Cruz’s offensive abilities are bountiful enough to earn a number that starts with a 2 when he hits free agency at 30.
Riley Greene, CF, Detroit Tigers: Greene has both age and position on his side — he’ll turn 28 right before he hits the market in 2029 and is a solid defender at a premium position. His strikeouts are a little too high, his walks a little too low, but just about everything else Greene does plays, and on top of that, he’s likely to have plenty of postseason experience by the time he’s a free agent.
Roki Sasaki, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Of all those in the groups above $100 million, Sasaki is the biggest wild card. He also has some of the best potential of the group, making him a tricky player to place. Between now and November 2030, when the rookie is set to hit free agency, he could very easily blossom into the best pitcher in the world. He also could never find the 100 mph fastball he regularly threw in Japan and wind up a giant case of what could have been. This placement is simply a bet on his splitter, a true unicorn pitch.
Spencer Strider, SP, Atlanta Braves: Strider’s six-year, $75 million extension signed in October 2022 set a record for a pitcher with such little service time. Should the Braves exercise a club option in 2029, it will put Strider onto the market at 31 — the same age as his former Braves teammate Max Fried was when he got eight years and $218 million from the Yankees last winter. When he’s healthy, Strider is even better than Fried, and if he can sustain his stuff, he might be a better bet for the $300 million club.
Logan Gilbert, SP, Seattle Mariners: He has size, he has stuff, he has innings and he has adaptability. Gilbert is the quintessential modern pitcher, and with $200 million now the standard for true aces, he qualifies. Gilbert is due to hit free agency after the 2028 season, and if he can get past the elbow issues currently sidelining him and continue to produce until then, teams will be lining up for his services.
Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox: It’s odd to include a player who signed an extension a month ago, but the 22-year-old Campbell’s bat is that special. Boston has him locked up for the next eight years at $60 million with two club options on top of that, which means if he makes it to free agency, Campbell will be 32 on Opening Day in … 2035. If he is what the Red Sox think he is, though, chances are they’ll try to make him a one-uniform player before then — and that would be a $200 million-plus proposition.
$300 million
James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals: He has uncommon power, a fantastic eye, unexpected speed and, best of all, youth. Wood will have just turned 28 when he reaches free agency after the 2030 season, and by then, he could have 200 home runs. Suggesting a player is worth $300 million-plus with less than a full season of experience is something of a stretch, but if there’s anyone worth stretching for, it’s a 6-foot-7 outfielder whose home run stroke runs foul pole to foul pole.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers: Langford barely scratched the surface of his abilities last year and still wound up producing nearly 4 WAR as a rookie. He has been among the few bright spots for the Rangers’ offense this year, with speed complementing his huge raw power and a disciplined approach at the plate. Best of all: He’ll be barely 28 when he heads to free agency after the 2029 season.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: There’s plenty of time for Chourio to figure out how to take a walk between now and the 2033 season, which is how long the Brewers control him after he signed an eight-year, $82 million deal last season with a pair of club options. Chourio starred as a 20-year-old rookie and would hit free agency at 30, and even though he’ll be older than Wood or Langford, he’s capable enough to be worthy of standing alongside them in the $300 million club.
$400 million
Tarik Skubal, SP, Detroit Tigers: Now this is where it starts to get really fun. The largest contract ever given to a pitcher was Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s 12-year, $325 million deal in the 2024-25 offseason. But if Skubal stays healthy for the next two years and continues his Cy Young-caliber performance, it’s not out of the realm that he’ll seek a 10-year deal (he’ll be 30) for $40 million-plus a season. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have gotten $43.3 million average annual values on a multiyear deal. And Gerrit Cole got nine years at $324 million. The foundation for the first $400 million pitcher is there.
Paul Skenes, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: If it’s not Skubal (or Pérez), it’s bound to be Skenes. The 22-year-old helped his clock by winning Rookie of the Year and the full year of service that comes with it. He’ll be just 27 when he’s on the market after the 2029 season. And if Skubal (or Pérez) does indeed crack the $400 million threshold, it would be no surprise to see Skenes — the best pitching prospect in a generation — parlay his productivity, age and marketability into becoming baseball’s first half-billion-dollar pitcher.
$500 million
Kyle Tucker, OF, Chicago Cubs: This one was tough. Nobody doubts Tucker’s talent as a player. The combination of other elements — a potential lockout after the 2026 season changing the game’s finances, the presence of big-revenue teams that could choose to avoid a deal the magnitude of which Tucker will rightly seek — simply makes it a challenge to predict if he’ll land here or the previous tier. On Tucker’s side are the comparables. He is a better player than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whom the Blue Jays gave $500 million. He’ll play all of next year at 29. He’s one of baseball’s best power-speed combinations. Everything is there for Tucker to exceed $400 million. Surging past $500 million could be tough, but then no one anticipated Soto getting $765 million, either.
Elly De La Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds: Multiple executives named the Reds star as a potential successor to Soto, but the math is likely to prevent that from happening. With less than two years of service time, De La Cruz won’t be a free agent until the Class of 2029-30, at which point he’ll be 28. Even if he receives a 13-year deal, De La Cruz would need an average salary of nearly $59 million a year to exceed Soto’s contract. Is it possible? Well, sure. De La Cruz is that talented. But he hasn’t produced at an exceptionally high level, hitting .252/.328/.444 for his career. De La Cruz is electric, no question, but he must offer multiple MVP-caliber seasons to be in the conversation, and he hasn’t produced even one yet.
$600 million
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles: Henderson was the one player mentioned by every executive as the best bet to beat Soto. And even then, executives said, it’s a long shot. Henderson debuted at 21 and will reach free agency after the 2028 season at 27. He plays a far more important position than Soto’s right field, and even if Henderson does eventually move to third base, the positional advantage still will be true. In his two full seasons, Henderson has already put up more than 15 WAR, including a nine-win showing last year that was better than any year Soto ever posted. Even then, Henderson needs more years of consistent quality before he can be looking at $600 million, let alone $765 million.
-
Kyle Bonagura
Close
Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
-
Mark Schlabach
Close
Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
-
Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
Your first look at #CFB26 gameplay with @Ryanwms1 himself! 💪 🎮
Watch Here ➡️ https://t.co/lzER7JIFgO pic.twitter.com/9anXWawPhR
— EASPORTSCollege (@EASPORTSCollege) June 30, 2025
ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike