
Can anyone unseat Judge and Ohtani? Latest on all of MLB’s award races
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4 months agoon
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Bradford DoolittleMay 27, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
With Memorial Day weekend behind us, the 2025 MLB season has taken shape. The exact outlines will change, but we’re past the point where teams and observers can dismiss anything with the “it’s early” wave of the hand.
That is true for the 30 teams at this first major traditional checkpoint of a baseball season, but it’s also true for players, many of whom have seen enough action that from a statistical standpoint, their rates have stabilized. That makes this a perfect time to take our first glimpse at how the awards races are shaping up.
So as we check in with our initial Awards Watch rankings of the season, we see much that looks similar to where we left off in 2024. In fact, the AXE ratings that feed these rankings see dual repeats in the respective MVP races.
That’s no surprise, as the first weeks of the 2025 season have done little to change the lofty appraisals of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who continue to do historical things in mesmerizing fashion.
Yet there are new faces here, too, and those are perhaps even more fun because it’s these kinds of emergent stories that add flavor to every new campaign. Can any of these new upstarts challenge the Judge/Ohtani dual dominance?
Maybe not, but it’ll be fun to watch them try, and the jockeying for position in the awards derby is already well underway.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (157 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (137); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (133); 4. Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox (129); 5. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128); 6. Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros (126); 7. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (124); 8. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Astros (123); Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians (123); 10. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (122)
Leader trend: At this point, Judge is competing against himself. Last season, Judge’s 218 wRC+ ranked as the seventh best of the modern era by an AL or NL hitter. In other words, he put up one of the greatest offensive seasons in history. In 2025, he is on track to do even better and has a chance to top Barry Bonds’ 2002 record of a 244. He is leading the AL in all three slash categories (homers, RBIs and hits) and runs. He might soon start spurring an onslaught of “Can Judge really hit .400?” articles. The only thing that could derail Judge from unanimous support in MVP balloting is injury.
Biggest mover: For this first edition of Awards Watch, the “biggest mover” measure is based on 2024’s end-of-season numbers. With that in mind, even though Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (118 AXE) didn’t quite crack the top 10, he deserves mention for bouncing back from a dreadful campaign. Despite being selected first overall by Detroit in 2020, Torkelson entered this season just below replacement for his career. He’s turned that around, posting 1.4 bWAR already, topping his 2024 homer and RBI numbers before Memorial Day and upped his OPS+ from 89 to 146. This is what the Tigers had in mind when they picked Tork.
Keep an eye on: Raleigh has staked claim to the title of baseball’s best all-around catcher. Coming off his first Gold Glove, Raleigh has also been one of the game’s best hitters so far. A pure three true outcomes batsman, Raleigh has been even better in those columns, upping his isolated power by homering at a near-Judgian pace, cutting strikeouts (a little) and pushing his walk rate to elite levels. He’s also improved his on-contact numbers by replacing some of his ground balls with line drives, resulting in — for him — a batting average breakout (.254).
National League
Front-runner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (138)
Next nine: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (136); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (134); 4. (tie) Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (130); Kyle Tucker, Cubs (130); 6. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (129); 7. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (127); 8. Will Smith, Dodgers (125); 9. James Wood, Washington Nationals (125); 10. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (124)
Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong’s emergence has made him one of baseball’s best stories this season. Entering the season, we knew that PCA, as he’s affectionately called, could post elite defense and baserunning metrics. If only he could hit! Would a leap from an 88 to a 149 OPS+ work? How about a pace that could see Crow-Armstrong post a 40/40 season? The strike zone numbers suggest a coming regression — more than five whiffs for every walk — but so far, so great.
Biggest mover: Perdomo has transformed himself at the plate, making him the NL’s top shortstop during the opening months of the season. Always a high-contact hitter, Perdomo has sliced the whiffs even more while adding walks, a tough dual feat to pull off, but it’s allowed him to push his OBP above the vaunted . 400 line. On top of that, Perdomo has featured more power by matching his career high with six early homers. Match those upgrades with his usual plus defense and an 11-for-11 showing on the base paths, and the Diamondbacks find themselves with an elite shortstop.
Keep an eye on: Ho hum. Doesn’t it seem like Ohtani is ever so slightly off from last season’s unprecedented level? Well, his percentages are on target to match or exceed those numbers. He’s on pace for 55 homers and 165(!) runs. Only his steal numbers are down from last season, but, lest we forget, his metrics might be bolstered by pitching categories in the near future. Meanwhile, even though Ohtani doesn’t lead NL hitters in either of the major versions of WAR, AXE likes his sizable lead in WPA among all NL batsmen.
Cy Young
American League
Front-runner: Kris Bubic, Royals (134)
Next nine: 2. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees (130); Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (130); 4. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (129); 5. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (127); 6. Hunter Brown, Astros (125); 7. Andres Munoz, Mariners (123); 8. (tie) Tyler Mahle, Rangers (121); Bryan Woo, Mariners (121); 10. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (119)
Leader trend: Bubic’s emergence hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere, but he’s validated anyone who pegged him as a breakout player for 2025. Bubic is a cerebral lefty who has shaped and reshaped his arsenal during his career, which was interrupted by elbow surgery and rehab. Bubic has sparkled by being aggressive in the zone and has succeeded doing that without top-shelf velocity. It’s not a fluke, though he probably won’t finish with the 1.45 ERA he’s posted through 11 outings. Still, this race is just getting started, and the leaderboard is likely to change every time one of these hurlers take the mound.
Biggest mover: Brown has flashed brilliance before, but in 2025 he has reached another level in blending dominance with consistency. He has put up eight quality starts in 10 outings, leading the AL in that category. His average game score (64.4) ranks just behind Eovaldi, Fried and Skubal atop the circuit.
Keep an eye on: Skubal won it last year going away and has to be considered the favorite to repeat, even if he hasn’t quite returned to the top of the statistical leaderboards. While Skubal’s ERA is up a tiny bit (2.39 to 2.49), his FIP is better (2.49 and 1.98). The latter portends a continuation of the dominance we’ve seen from the Tigers’ ace since last season. Indeed, Skubal’s last start — a complete-game, two-hit, 13-strikeout shutout against Cleveland — was the best outing of his sparkling career.
National League
Front-runner: Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies (133)
Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 3. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (125); 4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (122); 5. Kodai Senga, New York Mets (122); 6. (tie) Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants (119); Nick Pivetta, Padres (119); Logan Webb, Giants (119); Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (119); 10. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (118)
Leader trend: Luzardo was a top-10 prospect when he reached the majors with the A’s in 2019. While Luzardo has had some solid moments in the bigs as he’s moved from the A’s to the Marlins to the Phillies, this is the pitcher the prospect wonks envisioned. Everything is better: more strikeouts, fewer walks and a home run rate so low it barely registers. Luzardo’s rise has more than compensated for the early struggles of rotation mate Aaron Nola.
Biggest mover: It’s actually Luzardo, so let’s spotlight Senga, who has bounced back spectacularly after his injury-plagued 2024 season. His ERA through 10 starts (1.46, tops in the NL) almost certainly can’t last, but Senga has emerged as the ace the Mets needed. Through those 10 outings, Senga has faced 228 batters and allowed two — two — home runs. Not bad for a pitcher who pitched in one regular-season game a year ago, then gave up seven runs over five postseason innings.
Keep an eye on: After finishing as runner-up in NL Cy Young balloting last year for the second time in his Phillies career, Wheeler might be even better. His ERA and FIP categories are on target with 2024, but he’s been even more dominant in the strikeout and walk categories. According to FanGraphs, only Gore has a better strikeouts-minus-walks percentage, an excellent measure of dominance and sustainability.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128)
Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox (113); 4. Chase Meidroth, White Sox (111); 5. Cam Smith, Astros (110); 6. (tie) Justin Sterner, Athletics (107); Noah Cameron, Royals (107); Will Warren, Yankees (107); Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles (107); 10. Kameron Misner, Tampa Bay Rays (106)
Leader trend: Wilson might be the most interesting player in the majors. Considering all the things teams hold dear in player development and evaluation these days, how do you account for a player like this? Some of his percentile rankings at Statcast: bat speed (1st, or lowest), hard-hit rate (5th), walk rate (16th) and expected batting average (95th). What?! Wilson has struck out in barely 5% of his plate appearances this season. He swings at everything, contacts everything and everything seems to find a hole. Can it last? Let’s hope so because baseball needs hitters like this to flourish.
Biggest mover: Well, they’re rookies, so we’ll skip this one for this first edition. But rookie rankings change a lot as the season progresses, especially as some of those who will turn out to be among this year’s top first-timers are still in the minors. Possible example: Kansas City’s Jac Caglianone, who has already mashed his way from Double-A to Triple-A and, after homering five times over the weekend, seems intent on slugging all the way to the majors. Check back next month.
Keep an eye on: Kristian Campbell (92 AXE) has risen quickly and become a lineup fixture in Boston. The Red Sox have already rewarded him with an eight-year extension. The future is undoubtedly bright. Though, strictly speaking, his numbers haven’t been anything special. The results should get better, at least at the plate, and as an everyday player on a contending team, Campbell has every chance at being a key part of the Rookie of the Year conversation. But he will need to manifest that improvement.
National League
Front-runner: Chad Patrick, Brewers (113)
Next nine: 2. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (111); 3. Ben Casparius, Dodgers (110); 4. Logan Henderson, Brewers (107); 5. Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins (106); 6. Tim Tawa, Diamondbacks (104); 7. Max Kranick, Mets (103); 8. Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (103); 9. AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves (102); 10. Isaac Collins, Brewers (101)
Leader trend: The Brewers always seem to come up with one or two (or more) unsung pitchers who excel. This year, Patrick certainly fits that bill, posting a 3.23 ERA over 11 outings, including 10 starts. A lack of swing-and-miss stuff kept Patrick off the prospect radar, but so far, he’s made it work with command and a lot of soft contact. Patrick has already been traded twice in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland at the 2023 deadline for Jace Peterson, then moving from the A’s to Milwaukee after that season for Abraham Toro. This is what the Brewers do.
Biggest mover: While Wilson has emerged as a clear early-season front runner for AL Rookie of the Year honors, no one has achieved that status in the NL. Baldwin has been dynamite but hasn’t played everyday. Casparius has been effective but not in the kind of role that typically attracts awards support. Chances are, this leaderboard will look a whole lot different a month from now. That stated, expected Baldwin to stay somewhere on it, as he’s been a real force at the plate when he’s played. Increasingly lately, Baldwin has been usurping playing time behind the plate from veteran Sean Murphy.
Keep an eye on: Henderson has only made four starts, but what a beginning it’s been. Henderson won his first three outings and, overall, has allowed four runs over 21 innings with 29 strikeouts and six walks. He’s the first-ever Brewers pitcher to win each of his first three career appearances.
Manager of the Year
Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (109.8 EARL)
Next four: 2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (108.6); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (105.5); 4. Dan Wilson, Mariners (105.3); 5. Matt Quatraro, Royals (104.7)
Overview: The Tigers’ breakout might have begun late last season, but it’s only accelerated in 2025 as Detroit has become the story in the American League. The Tigers’ over/under for wins at ESPN BET has gone from 83.5 at the start of the season to 94.5. That 11-win increase is four more than any other team. Hinch has never won Manager of the Year honors.
National League
Front-runner: Rob Thomson, Phillies (107.7)
Next four: 2. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.7); 3. Bob Melvin, Giants (104.9); 4. Craig Counsell, Cubs (104.3); 5. Dave Martinez, Nationals (104.2)
Overview: This is a tightly packed race, with Thomson emerging as a fairly surprising early leader. The Phillies were expected to contend, to be sure, but have outperformed their run differential by three wins to date and are a sparkling 10-4 in one-run games. This system likes those things. Marmol has been rising fast as the Cardinals surge into surprising contention. He, Counsell and Melvin are more conventional candidates than Thomson.
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Sports
Haters’ guide to the Mannings vs. the Gators
Published
54 mins agoon
October 2, 2025By
admin
Between Archie, Peyton, Eli, and now, Arch, the Mannings have been a part of America’s football consciousness for nearly 60 years. Only one of the family’s college football rivalries, however, has included a spelling test, years of shade, and has spanned generations.
Within that lore, holding a spot that goes beyond merely an opponent, are the Florida Gators. First as haters-in-chief, then as part of the redemptive end to the family’s first college football run, Florida was there.
While Archie Manning never played Florida in three seasons with the Ole Miss Rebels from 1968-70, the Mannings are 2-3 as starters against the Gators. On Saturday, Texas Longhorns QB Arch Manning, with a lot of family history behind him, takes his turn in The Swamp (3:30 ET, ESPN).
It will be the next entry in what was once a salty family vs. school rivalry that featured an all-time hater.
A brief history lesson
The current Cheez-It Citrus Bowl was previously the Capital One Bowl and, before that, just the Florida Citrus Bowl. While the Orlando-based game annually hosted top-10 teams and was where the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers to earn a share of the 1990 national title, it is a tier under the major bowl games. Secondly, this Manning-Florida rivalry began in the era before the BCS, let alone the College Football Playoff and the nascent days of conference championship games. So, one loss could doom a season, or at the least, keep a team from a conference title and a major bowl.
Arch Manning might already know this, but it’s important to the lore of this rivalry and will make sense later.
The visor’s world
Peyton Manning’s recruitment was a big deal. His father’s legacy in the SEC combined with Peyton’s ability made his college decision one of the biggest recruiting decisions ever in the sport. By the time Peyton landed with the Tennessee Volunteers in 1994, Steve Spurrier was going into his fifth season at his alma mater.
The Gators would win five of the first six SEC championships. That’s what Peyton Manning was stepping into. The Tennessee-Florida rivalry would become the SEC’s biggest game for much of the 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000, eight of the 11 meetings would be top-10 matchups.
Manning wasn’t a part of the Vols’ 31-0 loss to No. 1 Florida in 1994. In the 1995 game, Manning and the Vols bolted out to a 30-21 halftime lead only to see Florida outscore Tennessee 41-7 in the second half and lose 62-37.
“It’s a 60-minute game. They don’t stop the game after 30 minutes,” Florida tackle Mo Collins said after the game.
The refrain would be played more than “Rocky Top.”
Manning was solid in the game, going 23-of-36 for 326 yards and two scores. The problem: Florida’s Danny Wuerffel was better. He threw for 381 yards and six touchdowns.
It would be the only game Tennessee would lose that season, but it would keep the Volunteers out of the SEC title game and relegate them to the Citrus Bowl. An amazing Manning performance in an excruciating loss to Florida and a less-than-satisfying bowl trip.
Before the 1996 game, the trash talk went wild.
Florida defensive lineman Tim Beauchamp all but guaranteed victory.
“They look vulnerable, very vulnerable,” Beauchamp said before the game. “… It should get pretty ugly.”
Beauchamp also took a shot at Manning. “He gets rattled,” Beauchamp said.
Archie Manning offered advice to his son ahead of the game, saying “spend the week with a smirk on your face, have some fun,” Sports Illustrated reported at the time.
When the game between the No. 4 Gators and No. 2 Volunteers began, that smirk might have turned into a grimace. Florida went for it on fourth down on its first series and scored on a 35-yard touchdown pass. Manning was intercepted on Tennessee’s first series. He was intercepted once more in the half and the Gators built a 35-6 lead at the break.
Manning, who attempted 65 passes in the game, would lead a second-half rally. He threw for a school-record 492 yards and four touchdowns but also had two more interceptions, which came at the goal line when Tennessee was threatening to score.
“We would’ve liked to have been accused of running up the score, but it didn’t work out that way,” Spurrier said after UF held on for a 35-29 win.
The Gators would go on to win the SEC, go to the Sugar Bowl and win their first national title. Tennessee was off to the Citrus Bowl. Wuerffel, the first of many QB foils for Manning, threw for just 155 yards in the game against Tennessee, but had four touchdowns and, crucially, no interceptions. He would go on to win the Heisman Trophy that season as well.
How do you spell Citrus?
Just a reminder — the “Head Ball Coach” loved hating on his team’s rivals. Spurrier surely meant what he said about running up the score on Tennessee in 1996. In 1994, he called Florida State “Free Shoes U” for allegedly failing to monitor agent activity. He called Ray Goff, who coached the Georgia Bulldogs from 1989-1995 and never beat Spurrier, “Ray Goof.”
In 2015, after a fire at Auburn’s library destroyed 20 books, Spurrier said “the real tragedy is that 15 hadn’t been colored yet.”
“He’s the needler champion of the world,” former FSU coach Bobby Bowden told Mark Schlabach in 2014.
Give him a national title (that came in a rout of rival FSU) and a summer booster tour and he could be in his hating bag like he was when he uttered his most famous barb.
“You can’t spell citrus without U-T.”
The brevity. The sass. The deeper, historic context. It was Spurrier’s masterpiece of hating on Tennessee.
He also had something for Manning, who had announced he was returning for his senior season, as well.
“I know why Peyton came back for his senior year,” Spurrier said. “He wanted to be a three-time star of the Citrus Bowl.”
Despite being a No. 3 vs. No. 4 matchup, it wasn’t the wild shootout the previous two games had been. Manning was 29-of-51 for 353 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw two picks. The Gators again shredded the Vols’ defense. Fred Taylor ran for 134 yards and Florida QB Doug Johnson threw three touchdowns in the Gators’ 33-20 win.
That was it. Manning would never beat Florida. He lost five games as a college starter. Three came to the Gators. Tennessee would go on to win the SEC in 1997 only to be crushed in the Orange Bowl by the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Ironically, due to losses to Georgia and LSU, Florida would land in the Citrus Bowl.
“It bothers me that we never did beat Florida, but hey, I can’t control the way other people view Tennessee or view my career,” Manning said after the game. “I’m sure Coach Spurrier will go make a few more jokes. That’s fine. He’s got a good ballclub.”
Eli’s coming
In the moments after Peyton Manning’s last game against Florida, Archie Manning was feeling the weight of watching his son’s very public athletic struggles.
”Everybody talks about how great and wonderful it is to be at all the games and see your son playing. But I’ll tell you something: It ain’t all it’s cracked up to be,” Archie Manning told The New York Times afterward.
”Sometimes I wish someone would just knock me out and tell me what happened when it was over. This wasn’t fun.”
Five years later, in 2002, Peyton Manning was going into his fifth season with the Indianapolis Colts, and Spurrier was about to start his ill-fated tenure as an NFL head coach. After being turned down by then-Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan and then-Oklahoma Sooners coach Bob Stoops, Florida hired Ron Zook, a longtime assistant in college and the NFL, to replace Spurrier.
After choosing the Ole Miss Rebels, his father’s school, and becoming the starter as a sophomore in 2001, this is what Eli Manning was stepping into for his first crack at the Gators in 2002.
While the game featured two eventual Heisman Trophy finalists and Super Bowl QBs in Manning and Florida’s Rex Grossman, it was not an aerial bonanza like those in which Peyton played.
Manning was 18-of-33 for 154 yards and no touchdowns, and Grossman was 19-of-44 with two touchdowns and four interceptions. One of those picks was returned for the winning touchdown.
The 2003 game allowed Manning to exact a bit of vengeance on his family’s nemesis. It would also mean a return to The Swamp for the Mannings. Following Peyton’s last game there, Archie Manning claimed he’d never go back. But he was there nonetheless.
“[Archie] had one last trip and he got to end it on a good one,” Eli Manning said after the game.
In the 20-17 Ole Miss win, Manning threw for 262 yards and led a 50-yard scoring drive to win the game. The lore of the family history and status of the Gators was, perhaps, not lost on Eli Manning who got a shot on Florida afterward.
“That team is beatable,” he said after the game. “They’re really not the team they were a couple of years ago when they had [Danny] Wuerffel and all of those other guys.”
That Manning ended 2-0 against Florida.
Next Manning up
Prior to the 2025 season, when Arch Manning was the preseason favorite for the Heisman, Spurrier found a little more hating in his heart.
“They’ve got Arch Manning already winning the Heisman,” Spurrier said on the “Another Dooley Noted” podcast. “My question is, if he was this good, how come they let Quinn Ewers play all the time last year? And [Ewers] was a seventh-round pick.”
Spurrier might have been right. Prior to putting up huge numbers against Sam Houston State, Manning was 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion rate and struggled in his only other road start at Ohio State. On the other side, Florida is 1-3 after starting the season ranked No. 15 in the AP, and head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat.
Saturday will mark 22 years to the day since a Manning played the Gators. While Arch Manning has not yet met the preseason hype, he will have his chance to continue the family winning streak and another rancorous chapter to the rivalry.
Sports
Ole Miss’ Kiffin: Dynasties ‘over’ for bigger SEC
Published
54 mins agoon
October 2, 2025By
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Mark SchlabachOct 1, 2025, 02:14 PM ET
Close- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
OXFORD, Miss. — Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said “dynasties are over” in the SEC after the league added Oklahoma and Texas and recently announced it will play a ninth conference game starting in 2026.
Kiffin, whose Rebels (5-0) are ranked No. 4 in The Associated Press Top 25 poll after last week’s 24-19 victory against LSU, said name, image and likeness rules and the transfer portal have also leveled the playing field in the 16-team SEC, making it harder for programs to stay on top.
He said SEC programs will no longer be able to stockpile talent as former Alabama coach Nick Saban did while winning six national championships from 2007 to 2023 and Georgia coach Kirby Smart did when capturing back-to-back CFP national titles at his alma mater in 2021 and 2022.
“In my opinion, the dynasties are over,” Kiffin told ESPN on Wednesday. “Alabama with Coach Saban and then Kirby at Georgia, where they had those rosters year in, year out and there would be a bunch of wins by 30 points in the conference, those days are done.”
Kiffin was Alabama’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2014 to 2016, helping the Crimson Tide finish 14-1 and beat Clemson 45-40 in the CFP National Championship after the 2015 season.
“When I was at Alabama, they’d be like, ‘Go watch the outside linebackers,’ and there’s six of them over there that are first-round picks,” Kiffin said. “That’s not going to happen anymore because if they don’t play, then they’re going to leave. They can’t keep them all anymore.”
Under the SEC’s new schedule, teams will play three annual opponents to maintain traditional rivalries, and the remaining six games will rotate among the other 12 league members, so programs will face each other at least once every two seasons. Teams are also required to play at least one quality nonconference game against a school from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Notre Dame every season.
Kiffin, who is 49-18 in six seasons at Ole Miss, said he didn’t want the SEC to add a ninth conference game, which was done to increase revenue, improve fan experience with an additional game against a quality opponent and get the league in line with the Big Ten’s scheduling model.
“You’re going to have really good teams going 8-4 because we’re going to play nine conference teams, including five on the road,” Kiffin said. “The conference has never been this balanced, and it never used to have Texas and Oklahoma, two top-10 teams and two of the hardest places in the country to play.
“My concern for the programs and for the coaches is that fans aren’t going to be able to get used to the numbers being different, the wins and losses. If you’re a program that’s used to being a nine- or 10-win team and you go 7-5, your fans are going to think the team is terrible and the coach is terrible. But you might have lost four road games at Georgia, Florida, LSU and Alabama.”
Vanderbilt, traditionally the SEC’s worst program, went 7-6 last season and upset No. 1 Alabama 40-35. This year, the Commodores are 5-0 and ranked 16th heading into Saturday’s game at No. 10 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Commodores coach Clark Lea has relied heavily on the transfer portal to rebuild his alma mater’s roster, including bringing in star quarterback Diego Pavia and tight end Eli Stowers from New Mexico State in 2024.
Mississippi State went 7-17 in the two seasons after former coach Mike Leach’s death in December 2022, including 2-10 under current coach Jeff Lebby in 2024. The Bulldogs brought in 31 transfers with 168 career starts before this season. They are 4-1 and upset then-No. 12 Arizona State 24-20 on Sept. 6.
“If a team in the bottom half is down for a couple of years, they won’t stay down for long anymore because they can go buy and fix their problems,” Kiffin said. “There are so many kids that want to play and go to the portal. They want to play in the SEC, so they’ll go to what you would maybe call the bottom-tier programs. They’ll fix their problems and won’t stay bad.”
Going forward, Kiffin hopes more weight will be put on schedule strength and other analytics when teams are picked for the College Football Playoff. The CFP announced on Aug. 20 that enhancements were made to the tools it uses to “assess schedule strength and how teams perform against their schedule,” including adding “greater weight to games against strong opponents.”
Kiffin said he would have preferred that SEC teams play an annual game against a Big Ten opponent, rather than another conference game, to produce an additional data point that might have differentiated SEC teams from one another.
“It can’t be these people deciding who gets in the playoff,” Kiffin said. “We’ve got to get back to analytics and computers. Baseball and basketball have the RPI where they take into account margin of victory, who you play, where you play and all of that.”
Last season, Kiffin criticized the CFP selection committee for taking Indiana and SMU over three SEC teams that went 9-3: Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina. The Rebels thumped No. 3 Georgia 28-10 at home but fell to unranked Kentucky 20-17 at home and Florida 24-17 on the road.
“Are you better than the 10-2 Big Ten team or ACC team? Well, you took away 16 nonconference games, so you really don’t know,” Kiffin said. “It’s just like the records in college football are so burned into our heads that 11-1 is so much better than 10-2 and so much better than 9-3, but it’s so different because you’re in these different conferences.”
Sports
PSU starting LB Rojas out with long-term injury
Published
54 mins agoon
October 2, 2025By
admin
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Adam RittenbergOct 1, 2025, 08:06 PM ET
Close- College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Penn State starting linebacker Tony Rojas will be sidelined long term because of an unspecified injury sustained in practice this week.
Rojas, a junior from Fairfax, Virginia, is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss with 4.5 and ranks second with 25 tackles. He became a starter last season, finishing with 58 tackles, 6 tackles for loss and 3 interceptions, returning one for a touchdown in a College Football Playoff first-round win against SMU.
Penn State did not specify how long Rojas would be out.
Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said Wednesday that senior Dom DeLuca will get increased playing time in Rojas’ absence, and the staff is discussing how to possibly use freshmen Cam Smith and Alex Tatsch.
“What’s helpful is we have these Sunday scrimmages, so we’ve had a chance to evaluate those guys each week,” Franklin said. “Early on, Tatsch was getting a little bit more time with the varsity. We’re giving Cam an opportunity now as well.”
Rojas played much of last season with a left shoulder injury, and underwent surgery following Penn State’s CFP run.
The seventh-ranked Nittany Lions, who lost their first game last week against Oregon, visit winless UCLA on Saturday.
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