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Welcome to the original … the amazing … the astonishing … ESPN still-too-early All-Star selections — full of wonderful surprises and fun debates for all ages.

A lot can change in the month before the 2025 All-Star announcements, but we’re deep enough into the season that we can make some educated guesses on what the rosters will look like — or should look like — for this year’s Midsummer Classic in Atlanta on July 15.

The usual rules apply: 32 players per team, broken down into 20 position players and 12 pitchers (at least three relievers), with one representative from each MLB club. Players will be considered for the position they’re listed at on the official All-Star ballot.

Let’s dive into baseball’s most power-packed league.

National League

Top starter debates

First base: Freddie Freeman vs. Pete Alonso

It looks as if Freeman — whom I’ve referred to as the new David Ortiz — will keep hitting until he retires or until his legs eventually give out. Freeman’s numbers were down a bit last season as he dealt with injuries and the health scare to his son, but he’s raking once again and leads the NL in batting average (.354), is tied for first in doubles (20, with Alonso and Brendan Donovan), ranks second in OPS (1.024) and third in OPS+ (189). At 35 years old, he’s as good as ever — maybe better.

Alonso had a couple of soft All-Star selections the past two years, making it last season despite a sub-.800 OPS in the first half and in 2023, despite hitting just .211 (albeit with 26 home runs). This season is shaping up as his best all-around campaign at the plate, even if he’ll fall short of the 53 home runs he hit as a rookie in 2019. He has cut down his strikeout rate, is hitting around .300 and leads the NL with 61 RBIs thanks to a .356 average with runners in scoring position.

This is a coin flip, especially because Freeman spent time on the injured list early this season. Both have also been incredible in high-leverage situations, with Freeman hitting .303/.457/.606 and Alonso even better at .419/.525/.907. That does it for me. Alonso gets the nod.

Third outfielder: James Wood vs. Kyle Tucker vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.

The first outfield selection is easy: Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is making a strong case for NL MVP thanks to his spectacular defense, baserunning and surprising power at the plate (he leads the NL in Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR) and could have an incredible 10-WAR season. The last NL player to do that: Barry Bonds in 2004. I don’t know whether Crow-Armstrong can keep hitting this well, considering his chase rate (third worst in the majors), but pitchers haven’t exploited that aggressiveness yet.

Corbin Carroll gets the second nod. No arguments there. The next three are right there with Carroll — all worthy starters. Tucker is having another superb all-around season, hitting for power, getting on base and stealing bases to earn a fourth straight All-Star selection. Tatis has slowed down after a hot April (1.011 OPS) but adds Gold Glove defense in right field.

My nod, however, goes to Wood. The sophomore sensation is hitting .270/.366/.533 with 16 home runs, getting the ball in the air more often than last season (although with much more growth potential in that area) and displaying elite numbers all over his Baseball Savant page. Physically, the 22-year-old resembles Aaron Judge — and it’s perhaps a little premature to point this out, but Judge hit .308/.419/.486 at age 22 … in High-A.

Second base: Ketel Marte vs. Brendan Donovan vs. Brice Turang vs. Nico Hoerner

Can we shift a couple of these players to the AL? These four are bunched closely in WAR, although they got there in different ways. Marte, last year’s starter, is having another monster offensive season, but he missed a month because of a hamstring strain. Donovan is hitting over .300 with a bunch of doubles and adds flexibility by filling in at left field and shortstop. Turang and Hoerner are defensive wizards without much power but add enough offensive value by getting on base and stealing bases.

My vote goes to Marte. He’s the best player of the group, and only the injury holds him back in the debate. He’s hitting .294/.418/.603 with 12 home runs in 39 games and has more walks than strikeouts, ranking in the 90th-plus percentile in walk rate and lowest strikeout rate. What a fantastic player — often overlooked. Donovan makes it as the backup, while Turang and Hoerner draw the short straw and are left off my hypothetical team.


Starters

Here’s my NL starting lineup:

C: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

1B: Pete Alonso, New York Mets

2B: Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

3B: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

SS: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

OF: James Wood, Washington Nationals

DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

SP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Smith is an easy call at catcher. He’s one of 13 Dodgers catchers to make an All-Star team in franchise history. Can any team match that many All-Stars at one position?

Machado and Lindor are the clear leaders at their positions, and Ohtani is matching his offensive prowess from 2024, minus a few stolen bases. Skenes is only 4-6 and his strikeout rate has dipped more than 6 percentage points from last season, but he has a 1.88 ERA and is in line to start for the second time in his two seasons in the majors.


Reserves

C: Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies

1B: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

2B: Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals

3B: Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants

SS: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

SS: Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds

OF: Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs

OF: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

OF Juan Soto, New York Mets

OF: Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins

DH: Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

Believe it or not, the lowly Rockies have two reasonable All-Star candidates in Goodman and reliever Jake Bird. Bird has been good for 35 innings, but let’s go with Goodman as the backup catcher, given the lack of a strong candidate because players such as William Contreras and J.T. Realmuto are having down seasons and others such as Carson Kelly and Drake Baldwin are excelling but in part-time roles.

Betts and De La Cruz get the nod at shortstop over Trea Turner, Geraldo Perdomo, Masyn Winn and CJ Abrams in a deep group of candidates. Betts isn’t having his best season, but he’s one of the game’s marquee players and the others haven’t outplayed him enough to kick him off this roster. The backup DH slot is down to Schwarber, Marcell Ozuna and Seiya Suzuki — with all three putting up nice numbers, but Schwarber’s are a little nicer.

And, yes, we managed to squeeze Soto onto the team, especially as he heats up with another three-hit game Sunday (and three walks), raising his OPS to .820. Stowers represents the Marlins, pushing out a third second baseman or Jackson Merrill, who might have made it if he hadn’t missed a month on the IL.


Pitchers

SP: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

SP: MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

SP: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

SP: Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

SP: Kodai Senga, New York Mets

SP: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

SP: Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

RP: Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres

RP: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets

RP: Randy Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants

Peralta makes it as our Brewers rep but is a worthy selection with a 2.69 ERA. He makes it over Reds teammates Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott.

The game is at Truist Park in Atlanta, so it would be nice to get more Braves on the team — but Sale is the only one I squeezed onto the roster. Ozuna, Austin Riley and Spencer Schwellenbach still have time to play their way onto the team, but the last time the Braves had just one All-Star rep was 2017, when Ender Inciarte was the only selection. It would be a far cry from two seasons ago, when the Braves had eight All-Stars.

American League

Top starter debates

Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Jeremy Peña vs. Jacob Wilson

Here are their current stats:

Witt: .291/.349/.492, 8 HR, 135 OPS+, 3.4 bWAR, 3.5 fWAR
Peña: .316/.373/.480, 9 HR, 139 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR
Wilson: .372/.408/.528, 8 HR, 163 OPS+, 2.8 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR

Peña has been terrific in helping keep afloat Houston’s offense, which lost Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason and has been without a productive Yordan Alvarez. Peña has dropped his strikeout rate for a third straight season, and Baseball-Reference, which gives him the highest WAR among the three, loves his defense.

Wilson debuted last season with the A’s but still has rookie status, which puts him on a potential track for some historic rookie numbers. The last rookie to hit .350? Ichiro Suzuki in 2001. The only rookie since 1900 to hit .370? George Watkins in the juiced ball season of 1930 when he hit .373 (and even then, he had just 424 plate appearances, so wouldn’t qualify under current standards). Highest average for a rookie shortstop? Johnny Pesky at .331 in 1942. With eight home runs, Wilson is even hitting for more power than expected. His defense, however, isn’t on par with that of Witt or Peña.

Witt’s home run numbers are down from last season, but he leads the majors with 22 doubles. With the weather heating up, some of those doubles should turn into home runs. His defense remains spectacular, and he leads the AL in stolen bases. He’s a true star, and though there’s time for Peña or Wilson to pass him, Witt should be starting his first All-Star Game in 2025 — the first of many.

Starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal vs. Kris Bubic

Skubal is making a strong push to defend his 2024 AL Cy Young Award, while Bubic has put up a surprisingly dominant first half for the Royals. The numbers:

Skubal: 6-2, 2.16 ERA, 83.1 IP, 61 H, 7 BB, 105 SO, 3.1 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR
Bubic: 5.3, 1.43 ERA, 75.1 IP, 53 H, 22 BB, 79 SO, 3.5 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR

Bubic — who pitched in 27 games for the Royals last season, all in relief — is a 27-year-old lefty, a 2018 first-round pick out of Stanford who had Tommy John surgery in 2023. His fastball isn’t overpowering at 92-93 mph, but he has added more spin than before his surgery to improve its whiff rate and his changeup is one of the best in the game (batters are hitting .100 against it). Though maintaining a 1.43 ERA isn’t likely, he has been really good and not just lucky.

Sticking with my “He’s done it before” analysis, however, Skubal is the pick — and it’s hard to argue that he’s not the best starter in the majors. That strikeout-to-walk ratio is incredible, plus he seems to be heating up, allowing just one run over his past three starts.

First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Paul Goldschmidt vs. Jonathan Aranda vs. Spencer Torkelson

Meh. Guerrero has made four straight All-Star appearances, including three starts, but he has benefited from subpar competition. First base in the AL has been consistently lacking in stars for a long time.

Anyway, the numbers … and, no, I didn’t have Goldschmidt on my bingo card either:

Guerrero: .273/.380/.417, 8 HR, 29 RBIs, 1.7 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR
Goldschmidt: .312/.369/.464, 7 HR, 29 RBIs, 1.7 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR
Aranda: .320/.406/.490, 7 HR, 34 RBIs, 2.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR
Torkelson: .237/.342/.500 15 HR, 45 RBIs, 1.4 bWAR, 1.5 fWAR

Aranda has the best slash line, although he started only 50 of the Rays’ first 64 games because he wasn’t playing against lefties earlier in the season. He has no track record of hitting like this, but his Statcast metrics are impressive, including a 94th percentile hard-hit rate. Goldschmidt was hitting over .340 just a week ago, so he has been in a slump, but coming off the worst season of his career, he has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees. Torkelson has the best power numbers of the group but is the worst defender and has slowed down after a hot start.

I’ll stick with Guerrero as the starter. Nobody else has done quite enough, although any of the four could separate from the pack with a hot June. I’ll make Aranda the backup, a nod to his nice start.


Starters

My AL starting lineup:

C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

2B: Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers

3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

OF: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

OF: Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

DH: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

SP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Raleigh is the landslide choice at catcher, and let’s hope the fans vote him in as the starter. He leads the majors in home runs and is on pace for one of the greatest offensive seasons for a catcher. Torres gets the nod in a very weak group at second base, probably the weakest position in either league. Bregman was battling Ramirez for starting honors at third base until Bregman’s injury.

The AL outfield is also pretty weak, with Judge the one easy choice and Kwan a distant second choice. The third starter is up for grabs. Julio Rodriguez is the selection going by WAR, but his offensive numbers are still way down from his first two seasons in the majors. Devers gets the nod at DH because, despite the slow start and controversy over playing first base, he’s putting up the best OPS of his career.


Reserves

C: Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels

1B: Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays

2B: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

3B: Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

3B: Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals

SS: Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros

SS: Jacob Wilson, Athletics

OF: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

OF: Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

OF: Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees

DH: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles

O’Hoppe is our Angels rep, and Lowe joins teammate Aranda on the All-Star roster. Paredes has quietly had a nice season for the Astros, although Junior Caminero is coming on strong for the Rays, and Bregman will merit consideration if he can make it back soon from his hamstring injury. Greene has had a weird season for the Tigers with a ton of strikeouts, but he has been a mainstay in a better-than-expected Detroit lineup.

Bellinger is one of many other outfield candidates. Any of the three Red Sox outfielders — Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela — could make it (Rafaela on the strength of his defense), and the Athletics’ Lawrence Butler is heating up after a slow start. O’Hearn makes it as the only Orioles rep, and Alvarez’s injury opens a DH slot. Garcia was my final choice, quietly having a nice season for the Royals, hitting over .300 while also starting games at second base and in the outfield.


Pitchers

SP: Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

SP: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

SP: Max Fried, New York Yankees

SP: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

SP: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

SP: Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

SP: Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

SP: Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

RP: Josh Hader, Houston Astros

RP: Andres Muñoz, Seattle Mariners

RP: Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins

Look at all those lefties! Besides Skubal, five of the eight other AL starters are left-handed. Brown and Fried have sub-2.00 ERAs and could merit consideration for starting as well — this is a very deep group of AL starters. Nathan Eovaldi is left off only because he’s on the injured list, but he’s not expected to be out long and was as good as anyone, with a 1.56 ERA. It’s great to see deGrom back, and even though he’s not as dominant as in his peak Mets days, he still has a 2.12 ERA. Valdez gets the nod over Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan, and Smith makes it as the White Sox rep.

For the relievers, Hader didn’t make the All-Star Game last year, but he’s dominating again, going 17-for-17 in save chances. Muñoz had a 0.00 ERA until May 30. Duran is 4-1 with 10 saves and a 1.19 ERA, part of a Twins bullpen that has been the best in the majors. Though they didn’t make the cut, Tigers relievers Tommy Kahnle and Will Vest have been great in late-game duties for Detroit.

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ACC preview: Road to title again figures to go through Clemson

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ACC preview: Road to title again figures to go through Clemson

To be the man, you have to beat the man. It’s the mantra of Charlotte-based wrestling great Ric Flair, and it pretty reliably describes the annual title race in the Charlotte-based ACC. For 14 straight years, the ACC crown has gone to either Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers or to someone who managed to beat them in the regular season.

Over the past 10 of those 14 years, Clemson has won eight titles. Even as the Tigers’ status as a national championship contender diminished — they’ve finished from 13th to 20th in the AP poll for four consecutive years after six straight top-four finishes — they’ve split the past four conference titles. Last year they became the first bid thief of the expanded College Football Playoff era, knocking off SMU in Charlotte to nab the final playoff berth over Alabama. And with the highest returning production percentage in the country, the Tigers not only head into 2025 as obvious favorites to defend their crown, but they are also garnering top-five hype.

I’ve been pretty skeptical about the latter hype — we’ll talk plenty about that below — but there’s no question the Tigers enter 2025 as the ACC’s most likely champion. Who else might contend? Will SMU charge back after coming so close to a title in its conference debut? Can Miami finally get the offense and defense functional at the same time? Since beating Clemson in the regular season is evidently a prerequisite to ACC glory, can someone such as Louisville or Duke take advantage of opportunities? And what the heck is Florida State capable of after suffering the end-all, be-all of collapses in 2024?

The most geographically ridiculous conference in major college football has countless storylines heading into the fall. Let’s preview the ACC!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC and Indie/Pac-12 previews.

2024 recap

Though Clemson indeed won the race, the ACC’s journey through 2024 was fascinating, with Cal (and its online fan base) generating early buzz and bringing “College GameDay” to town, Florida State suffering a historic collapse, Miami reaching as high as fourth in the polls during a 9-0 start, Georgia Tech scoring a couple of stirring upset wins (and nearly getting a third), Duke and Syracuse each riding close wins to big seasons (they were a combined 13-3 in one-score finishes) and SMU rolling to an 8-0 regular season in ACC play — after nearly losing to Nevada in the season opener and making an early quarterback change, no less.

Louisville lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, Miami’s defense no-showed down the stretch, and after looking like they were in the middle of a lost season (by Clemson standards), there the Tigers were to swoop in, land a spot in the title game and beat SMU with a field goal at the buzzer in one of the best games of the year.

Both Clemson and SMU reached — and lost in the first round of — the College Football Playoff, capping a madcap season.

Oh yeah, and then North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Can’t forget that.


Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

Though the national average for returning production is around just 53% this season, the ACC is one of three conferences (along with the Big 12 and SEC) to average 59% or higher. Clemson, at 80%, leads the way nationally, and seven other teams are at 60% or better. The Tigers hit that number in a few different ways. Swinney added three transfers to the Clemson roster, a mammoth number by his standards, but Clemson still does less portal work than any non-service academy in the country. Others, such as Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, don’t do much either. BC actually joins a strange club: Of the teams in the six conferences I’ve previewed to date, only BC, Ball State and Missouri State have fewer than 10 incoming starts from transfers and fewer than 10 redshirt freshman. It’s a pretty odd combination.

Jeff Brohm’s Louisville, meanwhile, does more portal work than most, and among the top teams in the returning production column, Miami, Louisville, FSU and Duke all got there in part through the addition of transfer quarterbacks.


2025 projections

We have some pretty big stratification at the top, where ACC No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 SMU are separated by 10.2 points, larger than the difference between No. 6 Duke and No. 16 Wake. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12 points in seven of eight league games and could get their biggest tests from a pair of nonconference matchups against the SEC — LSU’s visit in Week 1 and the trip to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.

Miami’s rating might be a bit surprising. The Hurricanes obviously benefit from how ridiculously good last year’s offense was — they’re still projected to have the best offense in the country despite losing basically eight starters. That will be a high bar to clear, but the defense has a chance to improve beyond 44th, too. We’ll see.

Because of the volatility baked into the projections, Clemson has only about a 2-in-7 chance of winning the league, and Miami, SMU and Louisville could each make a run to the title game. NC State, meanwhile, has a pretty workable conference schedule if you’re looking for a random sleeper.


Five best games of 2025

Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.

LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games — Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end — but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren’t many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let’s get a bunch of those questions answered right away.

Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes’ ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.

Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.

Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of each other. Because Clemson’s projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race — if the Canes don’t make it to Charlotte for the league title game, they will have a huge role to play in who does.

Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). Clemson’s tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East.


Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Head coach: Dabo Swinney (17th year, 180-47 overall)

2025 projection: eighth in SP+, 10.0 average wins (6.8 in the ACC)

Hey there, Tigers fans. More than any other fan base this offseason, you guys have accused me of hating your team because of how open I’ve been in my skepticism toward its top-five bona fides. We’ll get to that, but I should note that none of that skepticism applies to the ACC race.

Again, the national average for returning production at the moment is about 53%. Clemson’s is 80%. The Tigers bring back quarterback Cade Klubnik (3,639 yards, 36 TDs last season) and three of his top four receivers in junior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore (combined: 2,263 yards and 21 TDs last year). Plus, sophomore Tyler Brown, injured in 2024, returns after catching 52 passes in 2023. Throw in the rarest of Clemson rarities, an incoming transfer receiver — Tristan Smith (934 yards and six TDs at SE Missouri State) — and you’ve got a tantalizing skill corps even with the loss of leading rusher Phil Mafah. (Sophomore back Jay Haynes easily topped Mafah by averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a small sample, though he’s coming back from a late-season ACL tear.)

Anchoring all this talent is what should be Clemson’s best offensive line in ages, one that returns four senior starters, including all-conference right tackle Blake Miller. The Tigers jumped to 16th in offensive SP+ last season — a far cry from where the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence offenses ranked but a vast improvement over the 2021-23 units, which averaged a 50.3 ranking. If huge returning production results in improvement (and it frequently does), they could easily have their first top-10 offense in a half decade.

The defense, meanwhile, was ridiculously young in 2024. Eighteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps, 13 of them return and nine are still only sophomores or juniors. That includes absolute stars in end T.J. Parker (11 sacks, 17 run stops), tackle Peter Woods (7.5 tackles for loss at 315 pounds), linebacker Sammy Brown (11.5 TFLs, five sacks) and corner Avieon Terrell (five TFLs, 13 passes defended), plus the rare senior in linebacker Wade Woodaz (15 run stops). And Purdue DE transfer Will Heldt (11 TFLs on a dismal defense) could add some star power as well. After the defense got worse for three straight years under coordinator Wes Goodwin, Swinney sought out a steadier set of hands in former Penn State DC Tom Allen. Improvement is likely, and a first defensive SP+ top-10 ranking since 2021 isn’t out of the question.

It’s a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games.

For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson’s defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.

The Tigers didn’t stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.

But that’s the hater talking, I guess. I’m excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we’ll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s. If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it’s going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It’s going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there’s a chance they prove this hater wrong.


Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year, 22-16 overall)

2025 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.2 average wins (6.3 in the ACC)

I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.

This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.

Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)

I’m not saying Miami will be that talented in 2025, but there’s at least a chance. Carson Beck comes from Georgia after throwing for 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last season. He alternated between looking like the best QB in college football and throwing baffling interceptions (12 in all), but he’ll have backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle (combined: 1,007 yards, 6.1 per carry) and tantalizing North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown next to him and a deeply experienced line, led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, in front of him. Cristobal had to completely rebuild the receiving corps, which doesn’t return anyone who caught more than 10 passes. I’m not sure he got the job done there, but between wideouts CJ Daniels (Liberty/LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) and returning blue-chip youngsters such as Joshisa Trader and tight end Elija Lofton, there might be enough.

The offense covered for the defense as much as possible last season — the Canes actually went 3-2 while allowing 34 or more points — but Cristobal needed a lot of new blood on that side of the ball and got it. New coordinator Corey Hetherman led Minnesota to a No. 11 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024, and he takes over a unit that returns five starters and welcomes nine transfers. The defensive front looks strong thanks to the return of tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. — they combined for 15 run stops and nine sacks despite Bain missing four games — and the addition of tackle David Blay (Louisiana Tech). If blue-chip sophomores Justin Scott and Armondo Blount develop properly, that’s a nasty defensive line. Transfer Mohamed Toure (Rutgers) could team with senior Wesley Bissainthe to form a decent linebacking corps. But breakdowns in the back were devastating last year, and Hetherman has to hope a remodeled secondary fixes that. Cristobal signed four new corners, led by Washington State playmaker Ethan O’Connor and including Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and potential nickel backs Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Kamal Bonner (NC State). Returning corner OJ Frederique Jr. could improve, too.

I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.


Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fourth year, 29-13 overall)

2025 projection: 20th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.3 in the ACC)

Based purely on performance compared with recent history, there might not be a better college football coach than Rhett Lashlee. Before his tenure, the Mustangs’ previous two seasons with 11-plus wins came in 1982 and … 1935; he did it in 2023 and 2024. They hadn’t finished in the SP+ top 25 since 1983-84; they jumped from 56th to 24th in 2023, then to 12th in 2024. When he took over three years ago, SMU was an above-average AAC team. Now it’s defending a spot in the CFP.

Is a two-year sample enough to proclaim Lashlee the best coach in the sport? Probably not. OK, definitely not. But wow. Chad Morris (12-13 in 2016-17) and Sonny Dykes (30-17 in 2018-21) helped to dust this program off and get it back on its feet, but Lashlee has transformed it from head to toe.

The 2024 Mustangs dealt with early QB issues — incumbent Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings barely two weeks into the season — and committed far too many penalties and turnovers. They also made far more big plays than their opponents, went three-and-out far less, created more negative plays and dominated third downs on the way to an 11-1 regular season. They needed one more bounce against Clemson in the ACC title game, and Jennings briefly self-destructed in an impossibly loud environment at Penn State in the CFP, but it was a hell of a season. SP+ had projected SMU as a top-25 team and possible ACC contender, and it still sold the Mustangs short.

The continuity table above says relatively kind things for 2025. Jennings (3,245 passing yards, 436 pre-sack rushing yards, 28 total TDs) is one of about six returning starters on offense, the O-line has a pair of all-conference contenders in tackle PJ Williams and guard Logan Parr, and corner Deuce Harmon and safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Robert Rahimi (a ball-hawking San Jose State transfer) anchor what should be a strong secondary. But although Lashlee is used to living the transfer portal life, he had to do some serious work in rebuilding both the skill corps (which lost its top two RBs and three of its top four WRs) and the defensive front six (which lost eight of the 12 guys with 200-plus snaps). Three Mustangs gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage last year, and four made at least nine TFLs. They’re all gone.

Lashlee added a couple of solid pass-catching backs in T.J. Harden (UCLA) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Miami), and slot receiver Yamir Knight (James Madison) is an excellent efficiency guy. Meanwhile, linebacker Zakye Barker (13.5 TFLs at East Carolina) is nearly a sure thing, and defensive tackle Terry Webb (six run stops and 1.5 sacks at 314 pounds) is active for his size. But disruption up front was vital to SMU’s defensive success, and Webb is the only genuinely proven disruptor among nine incoming transfer linemen. Some newbies and/or youngsters will have to raise their game for SMU to return to either Charlotte or the CFP.

The schedule certainly seems trickier this time around. After nonconference battles with both Baylor (home) and TCU (away), SMU faces all three of the other teams in this title contenders section — Miami and Louisville at home and Clemson away. After what Lashlee and the Mustangs have done these past two years, doubting them seems pretty foolish. But they’ve got their work cut out for them in 2025.


Head coach: Jeff Brohm (third year, 19-8 overall)

2025 projection: 24th in SP+, 8.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)

Brohm’s Louisville is a very hectic program. Change never stops. In 2023, he took over a team that had ranked 41st in SP+ with an 8-5 record, sent 25 transfers out, brought 25 in and improved the Cardinals to 10-4 and 34th. In 2024, it was 30 transfers out, 32 in and further improvement to 21st with a 9-4 record. The offense got better each year, while the defense and special teams got worse.

In theory, by your third year, you probably want to have your culture and your own recruits in place, therefore necessitating fewer incoming and outgoing transfers. But that’s not how Brohm sees things. He lost 28 transfers and brought in 30. The Cardinals have some dynamite returnees in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson (combined: 1,770 yards, 7.6 per carry!), receiver Chris Bell (737 yards, 17.1 per catch), potential all-conference center Pete Nygra, super-disruptive linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 11 passes defended) and safety D’Angelo Hutchinson (five pass breakups, five run stops). But those are damn near the only proven returnees. Brohm and offensive coordinator (and brother) Brian Brohm will have their third starting quarterback in as many years — likely USC transfer Miller Moss — and welcome four wideouts, three tight ends and seven linemen via the portal. Brohms typically field good offenses, and they’re clearly used to handling change, but this carousel isn’t slowing down at all.

The defense has indeed trended in the wrong direction of late, so maybe it’s not too scary that 14 of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are gone. The linebacking corps looks excellent, and Brohm added quite a few proven disruptors via the portal: end Clev Lubin (9.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina), tackle Jerry Lawson (14 TFLs at 295 pounds at Abilene Christian), safety JoJo Evans (seven passes defended and four run stops at Florida International), corners Justin Agu and Jabari Mack (combined: 20 passes defended at Louisiana and Jacksonville State, respectively) and corner/safety Rodney Johnson Jr. (five TFLs, three passes defended at Southern), among others.

Living the portal life means your scouting department constantly has to hit the jackpot. Ask Florida State’s Mike Norvell — a 2022 portal genius, a 2023 portal genius and a 2024 portal disaster — how that can go. But Moss’ QBR (74.4) basically matched that of last year’s starter, Tyler Shough (75.0); the trio of Brown, Watson and Bell is the most explosive in the conference; and there’s no reason to think the defense is any less talented than it was last season. Like SMU, Louisville plays all three fellow contenders (Clemson at home, Miami and SMU away), and the Cardinals travel to Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. That’s an obstacle, and at some point, a trend toward stability would be nice. But Brohm seems to know what he’s doing with all these moving pieces, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Louisville improves for a third straight year.


A couple of breaks away from a run

Head coach: Mike Norvell (sixth year, 33-27 overall)

2025 projection: 36th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)

For all the obvious reasons, I feared a bit of a hangover for FSU last year. The heartbreak of 2023’s unconscionable CFP snub combined with the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis, most of a dynamite skill corps and seven defensive draft picks made the Seminoles regression candidates, even if Norvell said all the right things in the offseason and brought in another solid-on-paper transfer haul.

Of course, if you’d asked me what “hangover” meant, I’d have probably guessed a record in the neighborhood of 7-5. FSU went 2-10! The transfer class produced almost no standouts, and the quarterback situation was even worse than at the end of 2023 after Travis’ injury — DJ Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek were dreadful. The Noles fell from ninth to 58th in defensive SP+ and from 23rd to 114th on offense.

This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But Norvell will try.

The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers, from quarterback Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) to running back Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) to receivers Squirrel White (Tennessee), Duce Robinson (USC) and Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina) to any of six new offensive linemen. Tackle Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), guard Adrian Medley (UCF) and center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest) are immediately the team’s most proven linemen. Castellanos was honestly an underwhelming addition; he started 2024 well at BC, but injuries and defensive adjustments rendered him mostly ineffective, and he was eventually benched. That said, he’s a speedster who started his career with Malzahn at UCF, and White and Robinson could be excellent.

On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents. Tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. and Daniel Lyons, linebackers Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham Jr. and corner Quindarrius Jones are solid, but transfers Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina), Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), James Williams (Nebraska) and Elijah Herring (Memphis) will need to immediately spruce up the pass rush, and tackle depth appears tenuous. There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse? And how many games does Norvell need to win to assure he’s still in Tallahassee in 2026?


Head coach: Manny Diaz (second year, 9-4 overall)

2025 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)

Mike Elko resurrected the Duke program, winning 17 games in 2022-23. But when he left for Texas A&M, Manny Diaz inherited an offense in need of a new quarterback and an overhaul on the line. The defense had been excellent under Elko, but 11 of the 16 guys with at least 250 snaps in 2023 were gone. A reset season seemed realistic.

Looking at the Blue Devils’ output, you could hardly tell there was any change at all.

Duke in 2022 (Elko): 9-4, 42nd in SP+ (55th offense, 29th defense)

Duke in 2023 (Elko): 8-5, 30th in SP+ (63rd offense, 25th defense)

Duke in 2024 (Diaz): 9-4, 44th in SP+ (71st offense, 31st defense)

The run game was a disaster, and Duke’s 6-1 record in one-score finishes camouflaged what probably should have been more like a seven-win season. But Diaz & Co. held the fort.

This year, the offensive line depth appears far stronger, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return, including four of six linemen and four of six DBs. Diaz added one of the Group of 5’s best safeties in Caleb Weaver (Sam Houston) and potentially exciting receivers in Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard), but his portal coup came at quarterback, where Darian Mensah comes over from Tulane. Mensah finished his redshirt freshman season 21st in QBR, just a few points behind veterans such as Klubnik (13th) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (14th). Mensah’s numbers were strong across the board, from efficiency (66% completion rate) to explosiveness (14.4 yards per completion) to escapability (15.2% of pressures turned into sacks — a good number for a mobile guy). The skill corps is a bit of a question mark: Five of last year’s top seven pass catchers are gone, and Anthony, Barkate and running back Anderson Castle (Appalachian State) might all have to make an immediate impact. But Mensah is awesome, and the line looks sturdy. That’s a good starting point for improvement.

It’s hard to worry much about a Diaz defense, especially one with experience at the front and back. Ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. (combined: 20.5 TFLs, 11 sacks) and tackle Aaron Hall (7 TFLs) are good, and corner Chandler Rivers (6.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 8 breakups) is great. Four of last year’s top five linebackers are gone, and Diaz didn’t pursue any portal replacements, which theoretically means he’s happy with what he has there. Regardless, linebackers are generally easier to replace than linemen or DBs, so Duke has experience where it counts the most. I’m not sure Mensah will have enough help to make Duke an ACC dark horse, but the defense should give the Blue Devils a pretty high floor.


Head coach: Dave Doeren (13th year, 87-65 overall)

2025 projection: 42nd in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)

“They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)” That’s what I wrote about the NC State defense in last year’s ACC preview. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had produced three straight top-30 defenses, per SP+, but he had to replace six excellent starters and needed transfers to fill major gaps in the secondary. Of eight defensive transfers, only two clicked, and Gibson’s track record didn’t prevent State from collapsing to 69th in defensive SP+. Doeren’s Wolfpack were ranked in the 2024 preseason poll, but even with slight overachievement on offense — they were projected 56th in offensive SP+ and ended up 48th — they posted their first losing record in five years.

It’s time for another round of change in 2025. Gibson took the Marshall head coaching job, and of the 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, only six return. Linebacker Sean Brown (13 run stops) and tackles Brandon Cleveland and Travali Price (combined: 15 run stops) are good starting points for new coordinator D.J. Eliot, but after failing to land enough impact transfers last year, Doeren had to seek out even more of them. Cian Slone (Utah State) and Sabastian Harsh (Wyoming) were among the Mountain West’s best defensive ends last year, and Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) were among the AAC’s most active corners. But this is a lot of change in a short amount of time, and the last time Eliot coordinated a top-50 defense was 2015.

There’s reason for optimism on offense, at least. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a true freshman: He ranked 65th in QBR, right between two mega-blue-chippers — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 59th, Florida’s DJ Lagway 70th — and his best moments were great. He was 18-for-20 for 234 yards and three scores in a blowout of Stanford, he rushed for 83 yards and three TDs in a near-upset of Georgia Tech, and he threw for 242 yards and ran for 54 in a rivalry win at UNC. His performance was encouraging enough that when Doeren fired coordinator Robert Anae, he promoted QBs coach Kurt Roper.

Bailey isn’t Roper’s only exciting sophomore. Running back Hollywood Smothers (571 yards, 6.4 per carry) and Noah Rogers (478 yards, 13.7 per catch) were both portal hits, and incoming tackle Teague Andersen (Utah State) was honorable mention all-MWC as a freshman. If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays — the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate — this could be State’s best offense since 2021. That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn’t collapse further.


Head coach: Brent Key (fourth year, 18-16 overall)

2025 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)

If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three — they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.

Overall, they really weren’t different than they were in Brent Key’s first season at the helm.

Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)

Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)

Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International’s two best players — receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs — and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).

The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn’t had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it’s clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.

Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won’t be as many marquee win opportunities — the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) — but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much.


Head coach: Bill Belichick (first year)

2025 projection: 54th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)

We’ve had months to get used to the idea of Bill Belichick running a college football program. It’s still going to feel ridiculously odd to see the 73-year-old, six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach leading North Carolina onto the field against TCU on the first Monday night of the season. I had this vision of Belichick deciding to finish his career leading some Division III team like his alma mater, Wesleyan. I can’t say I ever had a vision of him coaching in the ACC.

I still have no idea how it’s going to go. As I wrote in the spring, “Depending on how kind you are, Belichick has surrounded himself with either known entities or yes-men: two Belichicks (defensive coordinator Steve, DBs coach Brian), two Lombardis (general manager Michael, quarterbacks coach Matt) and other key former NFL assistants (offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, special teams coordinator Mike Priefer). He has raved about enjoying popping pads and yelling at tight ends, and he’s regarded as a good enough teacher that, for all we know, this unheralded roster might develop well and thrive. Or not. I have no idea how to set expectations for this.”

I like the roster more now than I did when I wrote that, thanks to the spring addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez (2,559 passing yards, 547 pre-sack rushing yards, 25 total TDs), and Belichick & Co. added lots of heft to the offensive line, signing eight transfers — including 2024 FBS all-conference performers in tackles Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and Daniel King (Troy) — who average 6-foot-6, 322 pounds. But the skill corps is terribly unproven: Leading returning running back Davion Gause had 326 rushing yards, and leading returning receiver Kobe Paysour had 365 receiving yards.

The defense, meanwhile, is almost completely starting over. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return, all defensive backs. Linebackers Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) and Khmori House (Washington) could all be keepers, though ends Pryce Yates (6.5 TFLs at UConn) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9.5 TFLs at Delaware) are almost by default the most proven linemen. Under Mack Brown, the defense usually dragged the offense down — the Heels allowed at least 34 points in five of seven losses last season — and while the word “Belichick” is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to grow sound on that side of the ball.


Head coach: Brent Pry (fourth year, 16-21 overall)

2025 projection: 46th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.9 in the ACC)

In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry’s team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry’s fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.

Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he’s a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.

On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn’t often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.

On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation’s best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai’i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.

On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it’s not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.


Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (11th year, 72-56 overall)

2025 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)

One of the things that makes a college football season so enjoyable is the early upstart run, when a team enjoys some thrilling early finishes, gets off to a fast start and forces you to think of it as a potential contender. It adds such a layer of richness and world-building to the sport.

Pitt’s 2024 season is a perfect example. Coming off of a dire 3-9 collapse in 2023, Pat Narduzzi hired 30-year-old offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina), paired him with former WCU back Desmond Reid and former Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein, and watched the offense drive a stunning 7-0 start. The Panthers scored late wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia, outlasted another September headline-maker (Cal) and blew out yet another upstart, Syracuse, thanks to three first-half pick-sixes.

And then they vanished from sight. Holstein struggled, then got hurt. An aggressive but glitchy defense sprang more leaks. And as delightful as they looked during the unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way.

Which was the more accurate impression, the start or the finish? Holstein is back, and Bell also has former WCU quarterback Cole Gonzales in tow, just in case. Reid is back after combining 966 rushing yards with 579 receiving yards, and the offense also returns two of its top three wideouts and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns four of the six players with at least eight TFLs, including linebackers Kyle Louis (17 TFLs) and Rasheem Biles (11.5), plus three physical DBs in safety Javon McIntyre and corners Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. Incoming transfer Kavir Bains-Marquez (UC Davis) was one of the Big Sky’s most disruptive defenders last year.

A Pitt game last year was almost guaranteed to feature a lot of negative plays, a lot of explosive plays and a lot of penalties. It was highly volatile ball, even by Narduzzi’s standards, and it paid off for the Panthers until it very much did not. Reid aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.


Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)

2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)

Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ — their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era — but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)

Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho’s Mark Hamper and South Dakota’s Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.

On defense, quite a bit of last year’s front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty’s TJ Bush Jr. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year’s top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).

The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I’m not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears — two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition — Cal could top last year’s win total.


Just looking for a path to 6-6

Head coach: Bill O’Brien (second year, 7-6 overall)

2025 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)

Bill O’Brien’s first season as BC head coach was a full three-act play. At first, the Eagles were yet another intriguing upstart, holding Florida State to 13 points (again, back when we thought that was impressive) and damn near knocking off an eventual 10-win Missouri team. The defense was physical and frustrating, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos was able to run around and avoid defenders for seemingly minutes on end, even if he didn’t really go anywhere. Even when Castellanos began picking up injuries and losing effectiveness, the defense was good enough to assure a 4-1 start.

A three-game losing streak followed, however, and with O’Brien losing faith in Castellanos, he called Grayson James off the bench against Syracuse. James threw a late TD pass to secure an upset win, and O’Brien elected to start James from there; Castellanos quit the team, and BC won two more games to finish 7-6.

James suffered fewer negative plays than Castellanos and was able to both get the ball quickly to slot man Lewis Bond and connect on some deep shots to then-freshman Reed Harris. In a reasonably small sample, he ended up with one of the better Total QBR ratings in the conference, right between second-round NFL draft pick Tyler Shough and Kevin Jennings.

The James-Bond-Harris combo was intriguing, as were young RBs Turbo Richard and Datrell Jones in small samples. A good line lost a couple of all-conference starters; if there’s not too much of a drop-off there, there should be enough to maintain last season’s late momentum, especially if the Eagles get something out of transfers such as receiver VJ Wilkins (Campbell) and tight end Ty Lockwood (Alabama). Bama transfer Dylan Lonergan joined the QB race as well.

With a secondary loaded with freshmen and sophomores, coordinator Tim Lewis had to play things pretty soft in pass defense. But the run defense was sound, and BC both created long third downs for opponents and made a solid number of stops. The secondary is far more seasoned now, and linebacker Daveon Crouch is excellent. But with last year’s top four linemen gone, O’Brien loaded up with seven transfers up front, five from smaller schools. None had amazing stat lines last year, but if a couple can provide depth for veterans like end Quintayvious Hutchins, a top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is possible.


Head coach: Fran Brown (second year, 10-3 overall)

2025 projection: 56th in SP+, 4.8 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)

Those hatin’ numbers are at it again. Syracuse won 10 games last season and is now in the “just hoping for 6-6” section. What?

I’ll try to explain: In 2024, the Orange played only three SP+ top-40 teams and beat them all, but they went 7-2 in one-score finishes (hard to duplicate), and two of their three losses — by 28 to Pitt and at home to Stanford — were absolutely dreadful. Kyle McCord piloted an efficient, pass-happy offense, but opponents made more big plays, and they were among the most fortunate teams in the league. Despite the 10 wins, they finished 46th in SP+.

Of course, 46th was Syracuse’s best ranking in seven years! And Fran Brown’s first dalliances in the portal produced the Orange’s leading passer, leading receiver, two offensive line starters and four of their best defenders. That’s a good sign.

Things will get tougher in 2025. The schedule features five projected top-20 teams, and the offense returns only two starters. McCord will likely be replaced by either Steve Angeli (Notre Dame) or Rickie Collins (LSU), and with last year’s leading rusher and three leading targets gone, incoming receiver transfer Johntay Cook II (Texas) and a lot of former backups will have to step up. Up front, two starters return, but they’re two of only three guys with more than 40 snaps back, and Brown brought in five line transfers.

Injuries thrust a lot of guys into the starting defense at one point or another, and of the 23 players who started at least once (!), 15 return. There isn’t a ton of proven playmaking here, but safety Duce Chestnut and nickel Devin Grant are fantastic, and sophomore OLB David Omopariola‘s per-snap production suggests he has breakout potential. Brown didn’t load up on transfers, but he did add strong playmakers in tackle Chris Thomas (Marshall) and edge rusher David Reese (Cal) and a young former blue-chip safety in Chris Peal (Georgia).

Between the massive schedule-strength upgrade, last year’s inflated win total and the need for another batch of portal playmakers on offense, the odds certainly favor a setback season for the Orange. But Brown has barely made a misstep so far, whether the hatin’ numbers acknowledge it or not.


Head coach: Tony Elliott (fourth year, 11-23 overall)

2025 projection: 79th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.8 in the ACC)

On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.

On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever — after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott’s first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).

After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J’Mari Taylor (NC Central). I’m not sure whom Morris will be throwing to — Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats — but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.

I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.

Will this work? I’d be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least.


Head coach: Jake Dickert (first year)

2025 projection: 81st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)

Dave Clawson ended up a relic of a past era. He won 157 combined games at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green and Wake Forest due to pragmatic program building and player development. He took his time — his win percentage in his first year in those jobs was just .277, followed by .354 in year two, .532 in year three and .698 in year four.

You don’t take your time anymore. It must be said that the best coaches adapt, and plenty have done so as the demands of NIL and the portal have so drastically changed how roster building works. But whether it was Clawson’s failure to adapt or Wake Forest’s failure to generate proper NIL funds — I’m not taking guesses either way — things fell apart pretty quickly for the Demon Deacons. In Clawson’s last two seasons, they went 4-8 with sub-90 SP+ rankings. The good players left too quickly, and there just wasn’t enough talent to work with.

If there’s anyone who knows about winning when your best players are constantly looking out the door, it’s Jake Dickert. He went 20-18 in three years at Washington State despite constant turnover. And his first Wake team will be portal-built. He inherits a solid tackle-breaker in running back Demond Claiborne, a sure-tackling linebacker in Dylan Hazen and little else. He brought a few Wazzu transfers with him, including three starting offensive linemen and a solid receiver in Carlos Hernandez. Those linemen will be protecting one of two very exciting (read: scramble-heavy and sack-prone) quarterbacks in sophomore Deshawn Purdie (Charlotte) or senior Robby Ashford (South Carolina). They’ll be running around a lot and potentially throwing to Hernandez and two 1,000-yard smaller-school receivers in Reginald Vick Jr. (Virginia Union) and Karate Brenson (Tennessee State).

Yes, his name is Karate Brenson.

Former Kansas State and Michigan State coordinator Scottie Hazelton takes over a defense that — surprise! — will consist mostly of transfers. Ends Gabe Kirschke (Colorado State) and Langston Hardy (UConn) were nice gets, and safeties Ashaad Williams (North Alabama) and Sascha Garcia (William & Mary) were both smaller-school ballhawks. Led by Hazen, this could become a solid-tackling, make-them-beat-you defense pretty quickly. But it’s still fair to question the overall talent level on both sides of the ball.


Head coach: Frank Reich (first year)

2025 projection: 88th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.2 in the ACC)

As far as interim coaches go, you could do worse than Frank Reich. The former Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers head coach — and engineer of two of the greatest comebacks of all time — has the résumé, even if he went just 4-15-1 in his last two years in those jobs. Andrew Luck, the Stanford GM overseeing the program, called in a favor in bringing Reich in after the awkwardly timed firing of Troy Taylor, and no matter what, Reich probably isn’t going to do any worse than Taylor. He went 3-9 in each of his two years on the job, just as predecessor David Shaw went 3-9 in each of his last two years. Stanford’s SP+ ranking has gotten worse in seven of the last nine years, and the last time the win total improved in a given season was 2015. Yikes. After the program’s sudden surge under Jim Harbaugh and Shaw, it’s been a slow-motion disaster for most of a decade.

So yeah, there’s a low bar for Reich. At QB, he and offensive coordinator Nate Byham will try to create something useful out of either senior Ben Gulbranson (Oregon State), sophomore Dylan Rizk (UCF) or redshirt freshman Elijah Brown; the only particularly proven players in the skill corps are smaller-school transfers in running back Tuna Altahir (Eastern Washington) and receivers Caden High (SC State) and David Pantelis (Yale). The offensive line, long loaded with former blue-chippers, doesn’t really have any left. But three starters do return, along with transfers Niki Prongos (UCLA) and Nathan Mejia (Sacramento State). Is there a successful offense in that mix? I don’t see it.

The defense has been horrible for three straight years, but it does have experience and continuity — of 20 players with at least 150 snaps, 15 return. Outside linebacker Tevarua Tafiti, nickel Collin Wright and safety Mitch Leigber are all solid, but the hope has to be that experience and development create something useful.

Things don’t usually turn around for an interim, but at the very least, things probably won’t get worse. Does that count as positive spin?

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Irish OL Jagusah fractures arm in UTV accident

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Irish OL Jagusah fractures arm in UTV accident

Notre Dame offensive lineman Charles Jagusah is recovering from surgery to repair a fractured bone in his left arm following a utility terrain vehicle accident Saturday in Wyoming.

The team announced Jagusah will return to campus early this week for further evaluation, and that his prognosis from the surgery which repaired his fractured left humerus, a bone located between the shoulder and elbow, is “favorable.”

The accident is the latest setback for Jagusah, who was projected to start at left tackle for Notre Dame entering the 2024 season but tore a pectoral muscle early in training camp. He missed the entire regular season but returned for the Fighting Irish during their College Football Playoff run, filling in for Rocco Spindler at right guard and then starting the national title game against Ohio State at left tackle.

Jagusah has been set to start at guard for Notre Dame in 2025. The team did not provide an initial timeline for his return.

The 6-foot-7, 333-pound Jagusah is part of a young Notre Dame offensive line that projects to be among the nation’s best. Despite losing veterans Spindler (Nebraska), Pat Coogan (Indiana) and Sam Pendleton (Tennessee) to the transfer portal, Notre Dame returns promising players such as left tackle Anthonie Knapp and center Ashton Craig.

Jagusah was the No. 7 tackle and No. 66 overall recruit in the 2023 class. Notre Dame opens the season Aug. 31 at Miami.

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ESPN 300 CB Kennon commits to Florida State

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ESPN 300 CB Kennon commits to Florida State

Four-star cornerback Chauncey Kennon, No. 48 in the 2026 ESPN 300, announced his commitment to Florida State on Sunday, securing his place as the top-ranked recruit in the Seminoles’ latest recruiting class.

Kennon, a 6-foot-2, 175-pound defender from Sarasota, Florida, is ESPN’s fifth-ranked cornerback prospect in the 2026 cycle. A priority in-state target for Florida State coach Mike Norvell, Kennon chose the Seminoles over Florida, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Oregon.

Kennon lands as the ninth ESPN 300 pledge to land with Florida State since June 1, spurring a run of recruiting momentum that has lifted the program’s 2026 class to No. 12 in ESPN’s latest class rankings. That group of recent additions includes four-star pass catchers Xavier Tiller (No. 84 overall) and Devin Carter (No. 130) and quarterback Jaden O’Neal (No. 166), the former Oklahoma commit and ESPN’s No. 8 pocket passer.

Kennon is now the top-ranked of six ESPN 300 defenders bound for the Seminoles in 2026, joining defensive tackle Earnest Rankins (No. 206 overall), cornerback Lawrence Timmons (No. 264), safeties Tedarius Hughes (No. 275) and Darryl Bell (No. 291) and defensive end James Carrington (No. 288). ESPN 300 commit Efrem White, currently classified as an athlete, could also land in the Florida State secondary when he joins the program next year.

Kennon is a two-way standout at Florida’s Booker High School, where he plays both wide receiver and cornerback. Sidelined by injury for a portion of his junior season, Kennon was credited 33 tackles, 16 pass breakups and an interception last fall, adding 10 receptions for 217 yards and six touchdowns on offense.

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