Redrafting the top 10 picks in every MLB draft from 2015 to 2024
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David Schoenfield
The 2025 MLB draft is around the corner, with the first round beginning July 13.
There are a lot of challenges in baseball. Hitting sometimes seems impossible given the velocity and stuff from pitchers these days, and for those pitchers, throwing quality strikes is a test and staying healthy a huge challenge. But the most difficult thing in the sport might be drafting. It’s one thing to scout tools, it’s another to project an 18-year-old high school kid as a 25-year-old major leaguer. Finding the baseball players among the athletes or the velocity kings seems more difficult nowadays than ever.
How difficult is it? We went through the past 10 drafts, from 2015 through 2024, and redrafted the top 10 selections. Leaving aside the two most recent drafts, whose players are still very early in their evaluation, only 16 of 80 top-10 selections made the redrafted top 10. Two of the drafts are 0-for-10 in any of their top-10 selections ranking in the redrafted top 10. This helps explain why teams such as the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins remained mired in the muck of the standings: They haven’t drafted well. (Although the Pirates at least got the No. 1 pick in 2023 right and might have crushed last year’s top-10 pick as well.)
Let’s go back through the past 10 drafts to see what the redrafts look like right now. View this through the lens of a specific moment in the baseball timeline. If we redo this piece in a few years, it will look much different than it does now, especially for the more recent drafts.
Jump to a draft:
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024
2015
New pick: Alex Bregman | Original pick: Dansby Swanson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
New pick: Kyle Tucker | Original pick: Alex Bregman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
New pick: Austin Riley | Original pick: Brendan Rodgers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 41
New pick: Dansby Swanson | Original pick: Dillon Tate
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
5. Houston Astros
New pick: Ian Happ | Original pick: Kyle Tucker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
New pick: Walker Buehler | Original pick: Tyler Jay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
New pick: Andrew Benintendi | Original pick: Andrew Benintendi
New pick: Brandon Lowe | Original pick: Carson Fulmer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 87
9. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cedric Mullins | Original pick: Ian Happ
Where new pick was originally drafted: 403
New pick: Tyler Stephenson | Original pick: Cornelius Randolph
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
Other notable players from 2015: Harrison Bader, Jake Cronenworth, Paul DeJong, Trent Grisham, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ryan Helsley, Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Naylor
Best draft: Houston Astros. They crushed it by taking Bregman and Tucker with the second and fifth picks, plus eight others who made the majors, including Myles Straw and Patrick Sandoval. Indeed, while Bregman currently has about 17 more career WAR than Tucker, given that Tucker is three years younger, he might end up as the best player in this draft.
Honorable mention goes to the St. Louis Cardinals, who drafted Bader and Jordan Hicks in the third round and then DeJong and Helsley in Rounds 4 and 5.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Cornelius Randolph. Viewed as perhaps the top high school bat in the draft, Randolph ended up the second high school player selected after Tucker in a college-heavy first round. Randolph didn’t hit for average or much power and never made it past Double-A — although he’s still playing professionally in the Mexican League.
Overview: This wasn’t viewed as a strong draft at the time — Keith Law, then an ESPN analyst, had called it the weakest at the top since 2000 — and that has held true a decade later, with a dearth of stars and even some of the better players such as Swanson relying heavily on defense for their value.
The Astros had the second pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken the year before, and Bregman was in the big leagues for them a year later. Tucker was chosen with their regular selection at No. 5, and then they used another first-round pick to select Daz Cameron, who turned into one of the key players used to acquire Justin Verlander in 2017.
The oddest story out of this draft came courtesy of the short-lived Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart regime in Arizona. After selecting Swanson with the first pick, the Diamondbacks traded him and a good outfielder in Ender Inciarte (coming off a 5.0-WAR season) to Atlanta for Shelby Miller in December 2015.
“I think the Diamondbacks are nuts,” Law said at the time. “It’s one thing to win now. It’s another to just give away surplus value.”
The deal backfired for Arizona when Miller immediately got hurt to start the 2016 season and struggled thereafter, contributing to the team going 69-93, which cost La Russa and Stewart their jobs.
2016
1. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Will Smith | Original pick: Mickey Moniak
Where new pick was originally drafted: 32
New pick: Corbin Burnes | Original pick: Nick Senzel
Where new pick was originally drafted: 111
New pick: Pete Alonso | Original pick: Ian Anderson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 64
4. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Bo Bichette | Original pick: Riley Pint
Where new pick was originally drafted: 66
New pick: Zac Gallen | Original pick: Corey Ray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 106
New pick: Shane Bieber | Original pick: A.J. Puk
Where new pick was originally drafted: 122
7. Miami Marlins
New pick: Tommy Edman | Original pick: Braxton Garrett
Where new pick was originally drafted: 196
New pick: Bryan Reynolds | Original pick: Cal Quantrill
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
New pick: Sean Murphy | Original pick: Matt Manning
Where new pick was originally drafted: 83
10. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Michael King | Original pick: Zack Collins
Where new pick was originally drafted: 353
Other notable players from 2016: TJ Friedl, Tony Gonsolin, Austin Hays, Josh Lowe, Nathaniel Lowe, Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, Cole Ragans
Best draft: Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers snagged Lux with the No. 20 pick and then college catcher Smith with the 32nd selection — and 12 others who have reached the majors. Gonsolin and Dustin May are two of those players and have shown flashes of success interspersed with many injuries, but both remain on the Dodgers’ roster (Gonsolin is currently injured again). Another honorable mention to the Cardinals for their midround magic, taking Gallen in the third round and Edman in the sixth, although Gallen was traded alongside Sandy Alcantara to the Marlins as part of the Marcell Ozuna trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Riley Pint. A high school right-hander from Kansas, Pint routinely hit 100 mph — topping out at 102 — and was regarded as perhaps the hardest-throwing high school pitcher of all time. The Rockies took him with the fourth pick, with some viewing him as possessing the highest ceiling in the draft. Alas … that was not the case.
“Despite his clean arm action, he has a head-jerk at release that could make it hard for him to throw consistent strikes,” Law wrote on ESPN. Pint did have trouble throwing strikes, and while he retired temporarily in 2021, he at least managed to briefly reach the majors with the Rockies in 2023-24.
Overview: In a draft that lacked a clear-cut No. 1 selection, the Phillies went with California high school outfielder Moniak, regarded as the best pure hitter in the draft. He has made more than 1,000 plate appearances in the majors but has never mastered the strike zone and has a career on-base percentage under .300.
He’s not the only first-round pick who didn’t make it big, however. In fact, the top 30 picks have combined for just one All-Star appearance — Ragans, the 30th selection, made it last year with the Royals. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t talent available. The 10 players we redrafted above have combined for 18 All-Star appearances and two Cy Young Awards, from Burnes and Bieber. They were both fourth-round picks, Burnes out of Saint Mary’s College and Bieber out of UC Santa Barbara. Burnes just underwent Tommy John surgery, though, while Bieber is on the mend from his TJ surgery last year, so their career values might now be more limited.
2017
1. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Hunter Greene | Original pick: Royce Lewis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Daulton Varsho | Original pick: Hunter Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 68
3. San Diego Padres
New pick: MacKenzie Gore | Original pick: MacKenzie Gore
New pick: David Peterson | Original pick: Brendan McKay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
5. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Royce Lewis | Original pick: Kyle Wright
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Bailey Ober | Original pick: Austin Beck
Where new pick was originally drafted: 346
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Brent Rooker | Original pick: Pavin Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 35
8. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Mark Vientos | Original pick: Adam Haseley
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
9. Milwaukee Brewers
New pick: Heliot Ramos | Original pick: Keston Hiura
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
New pick: Jose Caballero | Original pick: Jo Adell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 202
Other notable players from 2017: Shane Baz, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Houck, Jake Meyers, Clarke Schmidt, JP Sears, Taylor Walls
Best draft: Minnesota Twins. The Twins drafted three players who made our top-10 redraft list in Lewis (whom they did choose with the first overall pick), Rooker (No. 35) and Ober (a 12th-round pick), although Lewis’ ranking remains more speculative in the hopes that he can figure out a way to remain healthy and produce some offense. He hasn’t done either so far in 2025.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Keston Hiura. While other picks — such as McKay and Wright — were sidetracked by injuries, Hiura quickly reached the majors in 2019 and looked like a future star after hitting .303/.368/.570 in 84 games. A lot of players had phony numbers that season, however, and his high strikeout rate caught up to him in 2020. He has spent most of the past three seasons in the minors.
Overview: In the 2015 overview, we pointed out that year’s draft class was viewed as the worst since 2000. Well, 2017 was viewed at the time as perhaps even weaker than 2015.
“You’ve probably heard by now, from me or from others who cover the draft, that this year’s class is weaker than normal,” Law wrote in his draft rankings. “I still believe this is true, perhaps even more today than I did a month ago.”
While there is still time for some players here to improve, they’re running out of time: The college players are now 29 or 30 years old, and the high school draftees are in their mid-20s. The only players with even 10 career WAR so far are Varsho and Greene, with Ober getting close. Heck, Taylor Walls, a player with a career average under .200, actually ranks fourth in career WAR thanks to his outstanding defense — but that merely confirms how weak this class has been.
In fact, at the time of his ranking, Law wrote that even the 2000 class had produced eight players with 30 WAR (it’s now nine). That class also has two potential Hall of Famers in Yadier Molina and Chase Utley, a 200-game winner in Adam Wainwright and Cy Young winners in Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb (plus some great hitters in Adrian Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista). While the first round in 2000 was weak, there was plenty of talent later in the draft. The 2017 draft was weak in both areas — and maybe will go down as the weakest draft of all time.
2018
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Tarik Skubal | Original pick: Casey Mize
Where new pick was originally drafted: 255
New pick: Cal Raleigh | Original pick: Joey Bart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 90
3. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Jeremy Pena | Original pick: Alec Bohm
Where new pick was originally drafted: 102
4. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Steven Kwan | Original pick: Nick Madrigal
Where new pick was originally drafted: 163
5. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Nico Hoerner | Original pick: Jonathan India
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
New pick: Logan Gilbert | Original pick: Jarred Kelenic
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
7. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jarren Duran | Original pick: Ryan Weathers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 220
8. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Joe Ryan | Original pick: Carter Stewart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 210
9. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Brice Turang | Original pick: Kyler Murray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 21
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Lawrence Butler | Original pick: Travis Swaggerty
Where new pick was originally drafted: 173
Other notable players from 2018: Kyle Bradish, Kris Bubic, Triston Casas, Brendan Donovan, Xavier Edwards, Ryan Jeffers, Shane McClanahan, Lars Nootbaar, Logan O’Hoppe, Drew Rasmussen, Grayson Rodriguez, Brady Singer
Best draft: Seattle Mariners. You could go with the Tampa Bay Rays, who showed their penchant for identifying pitchers with Matthew Liberatore (first round), McClanahan (first round), Taj Bradley (fifth round) and Ryan (seventh round). The Tigers also got Mize, Skubal and Parker Meadows. But we’ll go with Seattle’s draft, even though it’s just two players in Raleigh and Gilbert. Given the scarcity of good catchers, Raleigh has a case as the potential No. 1 pick in a redraft, especially with what he’s doing in 2025, but Skubal might be on his way to a second straight Cy Young Award, giving him that first selection in our redraft.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Kyler Murray/Carter Stewart. This draft had two of the more curious outcomes in recent draft history. Murray’s story is well known. The A’s pulled a mild surprise in taking him ninth overall even though he had played just one full season of baseball at Oklahoma. They gave him a $4.66 million signing bonus and agreed to let him play one more year of college football before beginning his baseball career. Murray won the Heisman Trophy that fall and ditched baseball for the NFL.
Stewart’s story is less known. A big high school right-hander from Florida, Stewart was up to 98 mph with a high-spin curveball. He was No. 2 on ESPN’s draft board and No. 5 on MLB.com’s, and he went eighth to the Braves. A wrist injury reportedly caused the Braves to lower their bonus offer, which Stewart declined to sign and he enrolled in junior college instead. Rather than waiting for the 2019 draft, however, he signed to play in Japan with the Fukuoaka Soft Bank Hawks on a six-year deal worth a reported $6 million — becoming the first U.S.-born first-round pick to sign his first professional contract with a Japanese team.
After some time in the Japanese minor leagues, Stewart had a breakout season in 2024, posting a 1.95 ERA in 120 innings. Along the way, he signed a two-year, $10 million extension. He has been injured so far in 2025 and hasn’t pitched, but he would still be just 27 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after 2026.
Overview: While this draft hasn’t necessarily produced a long list of big stars, the overall depth is impressive — even though the top 10 selections have been underwhelming, with India leading that group with less than 7 career WAR. Mize was the no-doubt top pick after a dominant junior season at Auburn and, after a slow start to his career and Tommy John surgery in 2022, is having his best season in 2025. The Giants would have been better off selecting a different ACC catcher than Bart (Georgia Tech) as the Mariners got Raleigh (Florida State) in the third round.
The steal of the draft, of course, has been Skubal, a ninth-round pick out of Seattle University. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missed the 2017 season, although he returned to throw some bullpens before the draft. The Diamondbacks took him in the 29th round, but he returned to school. Even though he was up to 95 mph, his wildness scared teams off.
A key to the long-term value of this draft will be the health of the pitchers. Mize, Rasmussen and Bubic have already returned from injuries (multiple Tommy John surgeries in Rasmussen’s case). Bradish, McClanahan and Rodriguez have yet to pitch in 2025, and Gilbert is currently on the injured list as well.
2019
New pick: Bobby Witt Jr. | Original pick: Adley Rutschman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
New pick: Gunnar Henderson | Original pick: Bobby Witt Jr.
Where new pick was originally drafted: 42
3. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Corbin Carroll | Original pick: Andrew Vaughn
Where new pick was originally drafted: 16
4. Miami Marlins
New pick: Riley Greene | Original pick: JJ Bleday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
5. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Adley Rutschman | Original pick: Riley Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. San Diego Padres
New pick: CJ Abrams | Original pick: CJ Abrams
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Hunter Brown | Original pick: Nick Lodolo
Where new pick was originally drafted: 166
8. Texas Rangers
New pick: Michael Harris II | Original pick: Josh Jung
Where new pick was originally drafted: 98
9. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Anthony Volpe | Original pick: Shea Langeliers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
10. San Francisco Giants
New pick: George Kirby | Original pick: Hunter Bishop
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
Other notable players from 2019: Michael Busch, Kerry Carpenter, Brenton Doyle, Tyler Fitzgerald, Hunter Gaddis, Nick Lodolo, Vinnie Pasquantino, Ryan Pepiot, Josh Smith, Spencer Steer, Bryson Stott, Matt Wallner
Best draft: Baltimore Orioles. Rutschman was the consensus top player after a stellar career at Oregon State that saw him hit .411/.575/.751 his draft year, and the Orioles ended up going chalk by taking him at No. 1 after some smoke they might go in a different direction. Henderson was the first pick of the second round out of an Alabama high school, with concerns about his ability to stay at shortstop and ultimate power upside, but he has proven skeptics wrong on both accounts. The Orioles also got Kyle Stowers later in Round 2 and Joey Ortiz in Round 4, both later traded for pitching help.
The Diamondbacks drafted eight players who have since made the majors, including Carroll out of a Seattle high school with the 16th pick. Another honorable mention to the Braves, who got Harris in the third round, Langeliers in the first round (part of the Matt Olson trade) and Vaughn Grissom in the 11th round (traded for Chris Sale).
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Andrew Vaughn. The third pick out of Cal, Vaughn was viewed as a sure thing, a polished college hitter on par with Rutschman. In college, he combined a high average with power and plate discipline (104 walks to 51 strikeouts his sophomore and junior seasons), but he has hit just .248/.303/.407 in the majors. The White Sox finally gave up and recently traded him to the Brewers, who sent him to the minors. His plate discipline didn’t translate to the pros and a slow bat has limited damage on contact.
Overview: Witt gets first slot in the redraft over Henderson. Witt was second or third on most predraft boards, although there was some concern that he was already 19 years old at draft time — a big red flag for teams who follow draft models that view older high schoolers as a negative. Obviously it wasn’t, and Witt is now one of the game’s biggest stars. I have Greene ahead of Rutschman in the redraft on account of age — he’s three years younger — and current level of production. You could make a similar argument for Abrams. Brown is climbing this list, while Harris burst on the scene with a Rookie of the Year season in 2022, but his offense has stagnated the past two seasons due to a hyper-aggressive approach that has him with one of the highest chase rates in the majors.
Still, after the mediocre returns from the 2015-17 drafts, this looks a little more like what you might think a top 10 should look like, with at least three major stars in Witt, Henderson and Carroll leading the way. It’s not a historic class, but it’s a reminder that most drafts aren’t loaded with future stars.
2020
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong | Original pick: Spencer Torkelson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
2. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Garrett Crochet | Original pick: Heston Kjerstad
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
3. Miami Marlins
New pick: Spencer Strider | Original pick: Max Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 126
4. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Masyn Winn | Original pick: Asa Lacy
Where new pick was originally drafted: 54
5. Toronto Blue Jays
New pick: Austin Wells | Original pick: Austin Martin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 28
6. Seattle Mariners
New pick: Jordan Westburg | Original pick: Emerson Hancock
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Evan Carter | Original pick: Nick Gonzales
Where new pick was originally drafted: 50
8. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jared Jones | Original pick: Robert Hassell III
Where new pick was originally drafted: 44
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kyle Harrison | Original pick: Zac Veen
Where new pick was originally drafted: 85
10. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Spencer Torkelson | Original pick: Reid Detmers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
Other notable players from 2020: Mick Abel, Patrick Bailey, Dillon Dingler, Bryce Elder, Colt Keith, Coby Mayo, Cade Smith, Tyler Soderstrom, Gavin Stone, Jordan Walker
Best draft: Atlanta Braves. In a draft shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Braves selected three major leaguers in their four picks, including Strider in the fourth round and 2023 All-Star Elder in the fourth. Strider had undergone Tommy John surgery at Clemson in 2019 and made just four appearances in 2020 before the pandemic, so scouts had a limited post-surgery look at him. The Orioles could also be here with Westburg, Kjerstad and Mayo, but the latter two have yet to do any damage in the majors despite their high prospect rankings.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Jordan Walker. The Cardinals took Walker with the 21st pick, and it soon looked like he might end up as the top player from this draft after he zoomed through the minors and reached the majors in 2023 at age 21, hitting a more-than-respectable .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs in 117 games. But he has been unable to come close to that production the past two seasons as he has struggled to make contact. The raw tools — bat speed and projectable power — are still there and he’s still just 23 years old, but it has been a frustrating two years.
Overview: The 2020 draft was always going to be unpredictable as college seasons shut down after a few weeks because of the pandemic and some high school seasons never even got going, so scouts had limited spring viewings of prospects. The draft was limited to five rounds, and teams focused on college players early, with eight of the first 10 picks from the collegiate ranks.
Still, even by these difficult measures, we haven’t seen great results from those first 10 picks, with only Torkelson making the redraft top 10 — and even then, you could argue for Tyler Soderstrom, defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey or Cade Smith, who has excelled as a reliever after Cleveland signed him as an undrafted free agent. There remains a lot of unknowns for some of the players in the redraft top 10: Jared Jones had Tommy John surgery this season, Evan Carter had a breakout postseason in helping the Rangers win the World Series in 2023 but had injury issues last season, and Harrison was just traded to the Red Sox.
There’s no doubt about the top guy at this particular moment, however, as Crow-Armstrong, on his way to a possible 40-40 season in his first full year in the majors, leaps over Crochet and Strider. Unfortunately for the Mets, who drafted him 19th overall out of famed Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, they traded him to the Cubs for Javier Baez in 2022.
2021
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: James Wood | Original pick: Henry Davis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 62
2. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Merrill | Original pick: Jack Leiter
Where new pick was originally drafted: 27
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Marcelo Mayer | Original pick: Jackson Jobe
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Boston Red Sox
New pick: Spencer Schwellenbach | Original pick: Marcelo Mayer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
5. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Bryan Woo | Original pick: Colton Cowser
Where new pick was originally drafted: 174
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Bryce Miller | Original pick: Jordan Lawlar
Where new pick was originally drafted: 113
7. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Tanner Bibee | Original pick: Frank Mozzicato
Where new pick was originally drafted: 156
8. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Andrew Abbott | Original pick: Benny Montgomery
Where new pick was originally drafted: 53
9. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bubba Chandler | Original pick: Sam Bachman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 72
10. New York Mets
New pick: Andrew Painter | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
Other notable players from 2021: Noah Cameron, Ben Casparius, Colton Cowser, Harry Ford, Sal Frelick, Brady House, Jackson Jobe, Kyle Manzardo, Matt McLain, Mason Miller, Max Muncy, Ben Rice, Carson Williams, Gavin Williams, Jacob Young
Best draft: San Diego Padres. The Padres are often unpredictable in the draft, but they love high-upside talent and might have gotten the two best players from this draft in Wood and Merrill. Merrill was the 27th overall pick, the highest-drafted Maryland high school player this century. He was a late riser whom many scouts hadn’t even seen until a couple weeks before the draft. Wood went with the 62nd pick out of IMG Academy in Florida, and scouts knew all about his power but had concerns about his hit tool. Well, he has figured out the hit thing and will be headed to the All-Star Game … as a member of the Nationals, after he was traded in the Juan Soto deal.
Honorable mention to the Mariners, who drafted collegiate pitchers Miller in the fourth round and Woo in the sixth, with both rising quickly to the majors and having immediate success in Seattle (although Miller is currently injured). Catcher Harry Ford was their first-round pick, and he’s a consensus top-50 prospect playing well in Triple-A, while second-round pick Edwin Arroyo was a key player dealt to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Henry Davis. There was no consensus best player in 2021, so the Pirates went with Louisville catcher Davis and signing him to a below-slot bonus to spread their pool money around (four of the next five picks each received a higher bonus). Davis was viewed as having the highest floor of the potential top choices, but he just hasn’t hit in the majors and is the backup catcher for the Pirates with a sub-.200 career average. With the savings on Davis, however, the Pirates did give third-round pick Bubba Chandler $2 million above slot to pull him away from a Clemson football scholarship, and he’s now the top pitching prospect in the minors.
Overview: This draft looks like it will be pretty deep in talent, especially on the pitching side — depending on long-term health. For now, I’ve slotted the pitchers who have proven themselves in the majors ahead of the ones who haven’t, but in a few years, it’s certainly possible that Chandler and Painter will be the top pitchers from this draft.
Wood or Merrill for the top player? There’s a case to be made for Merrill, because he plays center field while Wood is in left, but Wood’s bat is already special, with huge raw power and a good eye at the plate. He could be on his way to a 40-homer season in his age-22 season. Merrill is more aggressive, which might ultimately limit his OBP upside in comparison to Wood. If Wood was a bad corner outfielder, you might still go with Merrill, but at least for now Wood still runs well and plays an above-average left field.
Mayer slots in third. He was the top player on some draft boards and has played well in the minors with the range to play shortstop (although the Red Sox have used him at third base since his callup). Shortstop Carson Williams of the Rays, a late first-round pick, had helium entering 2025 but has struggled to make contact in Triple-A, he so falls out of the top 10 redraft — though, he has the talent to eventually climb back in. Lawlar ranked seventh on Kiley McDaniel’s recent top 50 prospects update, but he has had some injury issues in the minors and is 4-for-50 in a couple of major league trials. He merits consideration for the top 10, although he’s now blocked at shortstop in Arizona by Geraldo Perdomo.
2022
1. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Roman Anthony | Original pick: Jackson Holliday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 79
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Zach Neto | Original pick: Druw Jones
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
3. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Holliday | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Jacob Misiorowski | Original pick: Termarr Johnson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 63
New pick: Drake Baldwin | Original pick: Elijah Green
Where new pick was originally drafted: 96
6. Miami Marlins
New pick: Dalton Rushing | Original pick: Jacob Berry
Where new pick was originally drafted: 40
7. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cade Horton | Original pick: Cade Horton
8. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Jett Williams | Original pick: Brooks Lee
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
9. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Noah Schultz | Original pick: Gavin Cross
Where new pick was originally drafted: 26
10. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Victor Scott II | Original pick: Gabriel Hughes
Where new pick was originally drafted: 157
Other notable players from 2022: Hayden Birdsong, Justin Crawford, Chase Meidroth, Chandler Simpson, Drew Thorpe, Jonah Tong, Cole Young
Best draft: New York Mets. Williams, the 14th overall pick, is one of the top shortstop prospects in the minors while Tong, a seventh-round pick out of Canada, is having a monster season in Double-A averaging more than 14 K’s per nine. Third-rounder Blade Tidwell has also reached the majors. Kevin Parada, a catcher from Georgia Tech taken three spots ahead of Williams, has struggled to hit, however.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Elijah Green. The 2022 draft featured several talented high school position players, with Holliday, Jones, Johnson and Green all going in the top five picks. Holliday quickly became the top prospect in the minors and is playing well for the Orioles, but the other three have all struggled to live up to the hype so far. Green was always the riskiest of the group but had physical tools that drew comparisons to Ronald Acuna Jr. Concerns about his contact rate have proven true, however, and after whiffing 206 times in Single-A in 2024, he’s hitting under .200 in High-A this year.
Overview: While the top high school bats have yet to perform, the Red Sox got Anthony at the end of the second round with the 79th pick. His status as the top prospect in the minors before his recent call-up earns him the top slot in this redraft. Just to show how difficult drafting is, however: The Red Sox drafted two high school shortstops before they selected Anthony.
I have Neto ahead of Holliday for now, in part because Neto is a shortstop while Holliday has had to move to second base (and not just because of Gunnar Henderson — Holliday’s range and arm wouldn’t play at shortstop). Holliday is three years younger and just 21 years old, so there’s still plenty of time for his bat to improve. Neto was the 13th pick out of Campbell, in the Big South Conference — a late riser his draft year. He reached the majors with the Angels in 2023, and his power has been even better than projected, with 23 home runs in 2024 as part of an impressive 5.1-WAR season. You’d like to see him improve his strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he’s the best Angels draft pick since Mike Trout.
2023
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Paul Skenes | Original pick: Paul Skenes
2. Washington Nationals
New pick: Jacob Wilson | Original pick: Dylan Crews
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Wyatt Langford | Original pick: Max Clark
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Texas Rangers
New pick: Max Clark | Original pick: Wyatt Langford
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
5. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Walker Jenkins | Original pick: Walker Jenkins
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Kristian Campbell | Original pick: Jacob Wilson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 132
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Dylan Crews | Original pick: Rhett Lowder
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
8. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Colt Emerson | Original pick: Blake Mitchell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 22
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kevin McGonigle | Original pick: Chase Dollander
Where new pick was originally drafted: 37
10. Miami Marlins
New pick: Chase Dollander | Original pick: Noble Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
Other notable players from 2023: Bryce Eldridge, Zyhir Hope, Luke Keaschall, George Lombard Jr., Aidan Miller, Arjun Nimmala, Nolan Schanuel, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel
Best draft: Detroit Tigers. Certainly, it’s way too early to tell here. Maybe it’s just the Pirates with Skenes. The Red Sox got Campbell in the fourth round with first-rounder Teel going to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade. But let’s go with the Tigers as Clark and McGonigle, both high school selections, have hit well in the lower minors and could be excellent all-around players if their power develops. Second-rounder Max Anderson is having a big season in Double-A, and fifth-round pitcher Jaden Hamm, out of Middle Tennessee State, has also been in Double-A all season after having a strong year in 2024 in High-A.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Dylan Crews. By no means are we writing Crews off — we still have him going seventh in the redraft — but his early scuffles in the majors, including a .196 average in 2025, are surprising given the numbers he put up at LSU (.426/.567/.713 as a junior). The plate discipline he had in college hasn’t translated to the pros, and he didn’t tear up the minors in 2024. His MLB numbers also pale in comparison to Langford, who went two picks later. Still, we need more than 300 plate appearances before passing final judgment.
Overview: Remember, it wasn’t a slam dunk for the Pirates to take Skenes. Pitchers come with their obvious injury risks, while Crews and Langford were two of the more accomplished college hitters in recent years. But still, they clearly made the right choice.
Wilson was a bit of a surprise pick at sixth overall for the A’s. Scouts loved his elite contact ability coming out of Grand Canyon University, but you don’t project anyone to hit .350 in the majors and Wilson has a chance to do that. His power has been the biggest surprise, as he’s already exceeding the Nico Hoerner comparisons. He’s not going to be a Gold Glove shortstop, but he’s competent enough there to slot ahead of Langford in the redraft at No. 2. The ultimate strength of this draft will rely on the talented group of high school hitters — Clark, Jenkins, Emerson, McGonigle, Miller, Eldridge, Nimmala and others — who look good so far with some of them starting to get tested in the upper minors. Eldrige is super intriguing: The 6-foot-7 slugger is just 20 years old and already in Triple-A for the Giants.
2024
New pick: Jac Caglianone | Original pick: Travis Bazzana
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Chase Burns | Original pick: Chase Burns
3. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Konnor Griffin | Original pick: Charlie Condon
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
4. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Nick Kurtz | Original pick: Nick Kurtz
5. Chicago White Sox
New pick: JJ Wetherholt | Original pick: Hagen Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 7
6. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Travis Bazzana | Original pick: Jac Caglianone
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
7. St. Louis Cardinals
New pick: Cam Smith | Original pick: JJ Wetherholt
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
8. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bryce Rainer | Original pick: Christian Moore
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Hagen Smith | Original pick: Konnor Griffin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
10. Washington Nationals
New pick: Charlie Condon | Original pick: Seaver King
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
Other notable players from 2024: Slade Caldwell, Theo Gillen, Braden Montgomery
Best draft: Kansas City Royals. It’s way too early to do anything but guess here, but the Royals are obviously ecstatic getting Caglianone with the sixth overall selection. He has a chance to be the power hitter from this draft and a potential star to line up next to Bobby Witt Jr. Second-round high school lefty David Shields has impressed early in Single-A, while a couple of pitchers out of the University of Tennessee, Drew Bream and A.J. Causey, could advance quickly.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Charlie Condon. As with Crews, we need to give Condon a lot more time, but after one of the most dominant seasons in NCAA history at Georgia (.433, 37 HRs), Condon’s initial returns in pro ball have raised concerns — especially given what Caglianone and Kurtz have done to already reach the majors. In 25 games in High-A after getting drafted, Condon hit .180 with 34 strikeouts and four walks. He then fractured his wrist in spring training. He’s back at High-A Spokane and has hit better (.333/.457/.457) and at least improved his walk and strikeout rates (22 walks, 24 strikeouts). Still, High-A isn’t much of a challenge for an SEC performer like Condon, so the Rockies will need to get a read on him in Double-A.
Overview: We did a lot of moving around in the top 10 redraft, but this already looks like one of the most interesting drafts in a long time. Really, you could already make the case for five or six different players now going first, including Bazzana, the actual top overall pick.
Would Caglianone really go No. 1? Maybe not, given the bias against first basemen going first overall, but we’re at a moment when it appears Caglianone might have the highest ceiling of any player given his plus-plus-plus power potential. Kansas City is trying Caglianone in right field, and that is a work in progress, but it would be a huge boon to the Royals if it did work out, as they’re desperate for outfield power and Vinnie Pasquantino is locked in at first base. Caglianone’s high chase rate remains an issue, but he has already been improving from his college days and is striking out just 20% of the time in the majors (compared to 32% for Kurtz, who has tapped into more power so far than Caglianone).
Griffin is also an exciting player to watch. A two-way talent from a Mississippi high school where he was the national player of the year, Griffin had perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft and is showing that so far, hitting .344/.408/.552 in Single-A, already earning a promotion to High-A and looking good at shortstop so far.
As for Bazzana, he’s currently out because of an oblique strain, but his pro numbers have been underwhelming, hitting .238 last year in 27 games at High-A and .252 with 39 strikeouts in 33 games so far in Double-A this year. At the same level, Wetherholt has hit .322 with more walks than strikeouts and has the defensive chops to remain in the infield (most likely at second base, especially with Masyn Winn entrenched at shortstop in St. Louis) while Bazzana might end up moving from second base to left field.
Still, with Smith already performing for the Astros after the Cubs traded him in the Kyle Tucker deal and Kurtz producing for the A’s, plus Caglianone and Moore in the majors as well, the early returns from this draft look excellent. Besides Griffin, some of the other high school selections such as Rainer, Gillen and Caldwell look promising.
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David Hale
The beauty of college football, the thing that keeps us coming back week after week in spite of the exasperating morass of everything that happens off the field, is that the sport keeps surprising us.
This shouldn’t be possible. Once you’ve seen the band on the field, the kick-six and a player mimic a urinating dog after a touchdown, we should be immune to such astonishment. And yet, here were are, in Week 5, awash in shock and awe once more.
Who would’ve thought that Alabama, reeling in the aftermath of a Week 1 loss to Florida State, would waltz into Athens and swat down Georgia 24-21 behind a brilliant performance from QB Ty Simpson? Kalen DeBoer has gone from the hot seat to the SEC’s throne in the span of a month.
Who might’ve imagined that James Franklin, three quarters of the way through yet another root canal of a performance in a big game, would see his Penn State team rally from 14 points down to force overtime against Oregon? Even if it all still came to an end with a 30-24 defeat in double overtime, the game felt more like last year’s battle of titans between the Ducks and Ohio State, an appetizer before an entree to come later — in the conference title game or the College Football Playoff or at Dan Lanning’s annual Big Ten family trip to Six Flags.
Who would have imagined that a clattering of cowbells would come within a few yards of upending the SEC’s power structure, that Virginia‘s football program, which had fallen asleep watching Tony Bennett’s offense six years ago, would suddenly awaken to stun Florida State, or that, just days after Brian Kelly promised LSU would keep the Magnolia Trophy, Lane Kiffin would come away with a win and troll Kelly on social media?
OK, so we probably should’ve seen that last one coming.
— Lane Kiffin (@Lane_Kiffin) September 27, 2025
And so, we’ve reached September’s end, and so much of what seemed certain has come undone. No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU, No. 5 Georgia and No. 8 Florida State all went down in a raucous Week 5 that reshuffled expectations for October and offered a reminder of just how little we know so early in a season.
In Week 1, we got our first true stunner of the new season, as Tommy Castellanos and the Seminoles upended Alabama. After Saturday, it seems impossible to believe that just five weeks have passed since then.
For the Tide, every glaring weakness on display in Tallahassee on Aug. 30 had been miraculously remedied in Athens on Saturday night. Simpson was terrific, throwing for 276 yards and two scores, the defense was stalwart, and DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb worked magic, from a rejuvenated rushing attack to a near flawless night of third-down playcalling to the inspired use of left tackle Kadyn Proctor on a trick play that we assume Bama calls “No, seriously, get out of his way for your own safety! Our health insurance plan does not cover what will happen to you if you attempt to tackle him!”
0:33
Ty Simpson throws pass to 6-foot-7, 366-pound tackle Kayden Proctor
Ty Simpson throws it out to Kayden Proctor, who barrels over everyone to set up first-and-goal.
Georgia had its chances, but came up small is so many big moments, including a misplayed fourth-down call near the goal line. Gunner Stockton was held to just 130 yards through the air in what was surely his most disappointing performance since his pickup truck got a flat tire and he completely missed his chance to score Aerosmith tickets.
It was 17 years ago, in Nick Saban’s second season as Alabama’s head coach, that the Tide arrived in Athens for a “blackout” and stomped Matthew Stafford, A.J. Green and a star-studded Georgia team in a game that announced the new coach’s arrival as the conference’s standard. Whether DeBoer’s win will prove as significant depends entirely on where Alabama goes from here, but after a year of questions and criticism, the possibility no longer feels so far-fetched.
For the better part of three quarters, Oregon-Penn State felt as if Tony Petitti had accidentally cut and pasted an Iowa game into Happy Valley, but when Oregon scored on back-to-back drives to go up 17-3, the boos erupted from the white-clad faithful, the Nittany Lions appeared headed to another dismal defeat at the hands of an elite foe, and Franklin again remained frustratingly stoic, as if he was watching his laundry dry rather than seeing the football gods spite his team once again.
This is how close Oregon was to not being down on the overturned fumble call 👀
📺:NBC pic.twitter.com/62yfJoeORR
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 28, 2025
And then, just as suddenly, it all shifted. Drew Allar remembered he can throw the ball forward, Kaytron Allen delivered body blows in the run game befitting a heavyweight boxer, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki flipped his play card around and realized he had been reading it upside down the whole time
Yes, it was still ultimately a loss for Penn State after Dillon Thieneman picked off Allar in the second overtime. Yes, Oregon’s win warrants ample praise, and the Ducks should comfortably move into the AP top three, as Dante Moore looks like a poised veteran, the corps of tailbacks is deep and dynamic, and the defensive front is utterly ferocious. And yes, Franklin’s reputation for falling short in big games will remain intact a little longer. He’s now 4-21 against AP top-10 opponents, though it seems unfair no one ever mentions he’s 12-0 against the MAC. But Saturday’s fourth quarter did feel different, as if this Penn State team had awoken from a long slumber and was finally now ready to play like a team capable of winning it all, and a Big Ten battle that includes Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and the Nittany Lions should be among the nation’s best in the coming months.
And all of that was but the grand finale to a weekend that saw so much of the conventional wisdom upended.
Mississippi State‘s dream season nearly reached a new crescendo, but for a failed fourth-down try in overtime against Tennessee.
Florida State was riding high, then it hit a wall against Virginia, who forced the Seminoles into a second overtime, thwarted their final drive and then stormed the field with the pent-up enthusiasm of a stable of racehorses, all but throwing cash at ACC commissioner Jim Phillips to cover the fines before announcing he could keep the change.
Kiffin’s own daughter revealed on social media earlier this week that she was dating LSU star linebacker Whit Weeks, which might have been enough to rattle a lesser father. Not Kiffin though. His Rebels ran roughshod over LSU, as backup QB Trinidad Chambliss continued his unlikely ascent, accounting for 385 yards in a 24-19 win, even if it didn’t cover the total, as Kiffin had promised.
“I’m looking for Whit [Weeks] right now to see if we covered the over.”
Lane Kiffin after beating No. 4 LSU 😭 pic.twitter.com/YcBG6agyp7
— ESPN (@espn) September 27, 2025
It’s hard to blame Kiffin for the low total. LSU has now failed to crack 24 points in any of its four games against FBS competition this year.
The end result of the weekend is a playoff picture that looks as garbled and vague as ever.
Is Alabama back? Is Penn State a contender? Is Oregon the Big Ten’s best? Is Florida State cooked? Will Brian Kelly’s head explode like a piñata if LSU doesn’t figure out how to run the ball?
September provided more surprises than answers, which is all we could’ve asked for.
More:
Trends | Under the radar
Heisman five
Week 5 vibe check
Each week, big games help dictate the playoff landscape, but a lot of smaller shifts in the college football ecosystem can go unnoticed. We try to keep tabs on those here.
Trending up: Frustration at Southern Cal
USC was off to a 4-0 start and had climbed back into the AP Top 25. Illinois was coming off of a loss to Indiana so horrendous that a lesser coach than Bret Bielema would have faked his own death and started a new life in South America under the name Bert Gunderson.
So, advantage for the Trojans, right?
Of course not! This is USC, a team that would get lost in the drive-through at an In-N-Out Burger.
Despite Illinois twice fumbling inside the red zone, and despite USC driving 80 yards for a go-ahead touchdown with just 1:55 to play, there was really never any doubt what would happen Saturday, because of course, Lane Kiffin used his last wish on that enchanted monkey’s paw he bought at Ed Orgeron’s garage sale to put a curse on the program as revenge for firing him.
In any case, USC is now 13-12 in its past 25 games, dating back to 2023. As a general rule, if Trojans are that ineffective, there’s either a coaching change or the theft of a monarch’s wife by a rival nation-state. What this means for Lincoln Riley is complicated, as firing him would be extremely expensive and also result in so much exuberant laughter in Oklahoma that the wind created would risk another dust bowl situation.
Trending down: SEC job security
Saturday’s performance in Fayetteville might have been the point of no return for Sam Pittman at Arkansas. The Hogs lost for the third straight game, this time in horrific fashion as Notre Dame utterly shredded the D to the tune of 641 yards in a 56-13 win. Jeremiyah Love scored four times in the first half — two on receptions, two runs — and CJ Carr threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the win.
During the Razorbacks’ three-game losing streak, they have surrendered a whopping 129 points, which would normally make DC Travis Williams the most reviled coordinator of the Pittman era, but Dan Enos also worked there, so that honor is locked up.
Meanwhile, lurking in the shadows, Bobby Petrino’s diabolical scheme to regain power like the Empire building a second Death Star is finally coming to fruition.
Things are only slightly more secure for Auburn‘s Hugh Freeze, who was brought to The Plains with the expressed intent of ending Nick Saban’s dynasty and building an offensive juggernaut as he had done at Ole Miss and Liberty before. Turns out, Freeze managed the first job by default, with Saban retiring to spend more time with his insurance duck. The second task, however, has proven more difficult, and on Saturday, Auburn’s offense mustered just 155 total yards against Texas A&M, racking up more penalties (10) and as many punts (nine) as first downs.
Freeze is now 5-13 in SEC play since taking over at Auburn. Things are so bleak he’s already confirmed tee times for November, and Auburn boosters are texting Houston Nutt to file a FOIA for Freeze’s phone records.
Then there’s Mark Stoops, who’s hoping he can just fly under the radar until basketball season and then everyone will forget that Kentucky stinks again this year. The Wildcats were waxed 35-13 by South Carolina, and new starting QB Cutter Boley threw two costly interceptions amid another dismal offensive performance. Frankly, if a QB with as SEC a name as “Cutter Boley” can’t get the job done, there doesn’t seem to be any hope for UK to turn things around.
Trending up: Throwback celebrations
Kansas tight end Boden Groen went old-school after catching a touchdown pass early in the second half against Cincinnati, reintroducing the world to “The Dab,” which amazingly is now having a better year than “The Dabo.”
Haven’t seen someone hit the dab in ten years pic.twitter.com/zLCF2MjjcO
— Derek Duke (@DerekDuke25) September 27, 2025
Unfortunately, turning back the clock to the mid-2010s isn’t a good thing for Kansas, which spent most of that decade tying its shoelaces together, then running down a hill covered with banana peels. Predictably, the Jayhawks 34-30 lead with 1:45 to play evaporated quickly as Cincinnati engineered a brilliant 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to secure a 37-34 win.
The Bearcats then celebrated by doing the ice bucket challenge before riding hoverboards into the locker room while blaring “Old Town Road.”
Trending down: Second-half leads in the ACC
Wake Forest was on the brink of scripting the latest chapter in the best-selling memoir “Why the ACC Can’t Have Nice Things,” leading Georgia Tech by as many as 17 in the second half. But Wake let the lead slip away in part due to a controversial missed call in the final two minutes of regulation, and in part because of what Yellow Jackets coach Brent Key called a halftime “hard reset,” which presumably means they unplugged Haynes King and then plugged him back in again.
Wake had a chance to close out the game on a third-and-5 play with 1:48 to go. A Tech defender was clearly offsides, and QB Robby Ashford used the free play opportunity to throw deep. The pass was incomplete, the flag never came, and Wake had to punt — giving Tech a chance to kick a tying field goal and send the game to overtime. The Deacons failed to convert a 2-point try after a Demond Claiborne touchdown, and the Jackets held on for a 30-29 win.
Meanwhile, each new season of Pitt football continues to be akin to a trip to IKEA. It all begins with such optimism and a true sense of adventure, but soon enough devolves into a series of epithets and frustration until Pat Narduzzi is lost in the kitchen appliances section and all those Swedish meatballs suddenly aren’t sitting so well, and you’re screaming at your partner, “I don’t know why we needed a Holstëin in the first place! I was perfectly happy using some plywood atop a stack of cinder blocks!”
Anyway, Pitt blew a 17-point lead to Louisville and lost in embarrassing fashion for the second time in as many games, 34-27.
Trending up: Rivalry trophies
This year, the rivalry between UL Monroe and Arkansas State was dubbed the “Rice Bowl Rivalry” with an appropriately designed trophy to go with the new moniker. The Red Wolves had won the past 15 matchups in the series, but the best they had to show for it was some crowns they stole from a Burger King. But things were different this time around. ULM erased an early 10-0 deficit behind two TD passes from Aidan Armenta to pull off a 28-16 win.
3:20 until this baby is awarded pic.twitter.com/WVO7dcvoO0
— WarhawkReport (@warhawk_report) September 27, 2025
Trending down: Hoosier highlights
A week ago, Indiana looked as dominant as any team in the country. On Saturday, the Hoosiers faced Iowa in a far different scenario. Facing Iowa is like riding rollercoasters after a dinner at Golden Corral. It doesn’t matter how good-looking and successful you are, things are going to get gross.
And so it was that the Hoosiers staggered into the fourth quarter trailing 13-10, and after a late interception, looked to be on the verge of an upset.
Instead, Iowa did what Iowa does best: Stalled on a drive, missed a field goal, then turned the ball over on downs after an Indiana TD. The Hoosiers held on for a 20-15 win and immediately determined this game would be remembered like Season 2 of “Friday Night Lights,” a horrible misstep that no one considers canon.
Trending up: Big 12 high jinks
Who’s the best team in the Big 12? We didn’t know a month ago, we don’t know now, and there’s at least a 12% chance we’ll only find out in December after some sort of high stakes game of rock, paper, scissors.
The conference continues to be college football’s equivalent of your quirky uncle whom everyone loves, but no one trusts to babysit their kids, as Week 5 saw Houston stay undefeated after a raucous come-from-behind win in overtime against Oregon State, Iowa State shellack Arizona while utilizing the rare fake PAT, Arizona State reaffirm its place as a conference contender after a late rally against TCU, and Oklahoma State lose once again but this time while Mike Gundy was busy fly fishing in a shopping mall fountain.
The ol’ swinging gate ‼️
📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/cRP5MdaJ6a
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 27, 2025
This, of course, is what makes the Big 12 great. Everything is possible, and it’s entirely possible that by the end of October, Rich Rodriguez will have a Golden Retriever playing QB, Deion Sanders will have Shedeur don a fake mustache and attempt to rejoin Colorado, and Texas Tech will simply just pay Arizona State to forfeit the rest of the season.
Under-the-radar game of the week
Hawai’i outlasted Air Force 44-35 in a game that featured more than 1,000 yards of total offense, 41 points scored in the fourth quarter, 457 yards and three TD passes from Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado and a remarkable performance by the Rainbow Warriors, who converted 14 of 19 third-down tries. After the conclusion, the governor of Iowa proclaimed any footage of this game as contraband unfit for viewing.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Two weeks after firing head coach Brent Pry, who’d been 1-12 in one-possession games, Virginia Tech eked out a 23-21 victory over NC State, thanks in large part to the heroics of tailback Terion Stewart, who rushed for 175 yards in the game, including this 85-yarder.
0:35
Terion Stewart rips an 85-yard rush
Terion Stewart puts Virginia Tech in scoring position with an 85-yard run.
The win for the Hokies how sets up a solid chain of events in the transitive property championships: Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, who beat NC State, who beat Virginia, who beat Florida State, who beat Alabama, who beat Georgia. Therefore Old Dominion is better than Georgia. T
Heisman five
The Heisman race was already a mess, but things took another turn this week when the presumed front-runner, Oklahoma‘s John Mateer, was lost for the foreseeable future following hand surgery, leading Arch Manning to note, “right, hand surgery! That’s what I have, too! That explains everything. Shoulder surgery. I mean, hand. Hand surgery.” Regardless, we’re revising our top five candidates after Week 5, and we’ll add Mateer back into the mix if he returns quickly enough to keep his Heisman hopes alive.
1. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza wasn’t exactly sharp, but he did throw for a pair of scores in a win over the Hawkeyes. In Homer’s “Odyssey,” playing offense at Iowa is considered one of the most treacherous perils in the hero’s journey, just ahead of the Lotus-Eaters and just behind being drafted by the New York Jets.
2. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss
In three games without starter Austin Simmons, Ole Miss hasn’t missed a beat, as Chambliss — the transfer from Ferris State has emerged as one of college football’s best stories. He has helped the Rebels topple Arkansas, Tulane and LSU, he is averaging better than 10 yards per pass, and he has accounted for seven touchdowns and just one turnover. The only flaw in this amazing narrative is that he doesn’t have a twin brother named Tobago Chambliss who plays slot receiver.
3. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia
Vandy is 5-0 for the first time since 2008, and much of the success is due to its star QB. Pavia, whose first season in college football coincided with the advent of the forward pass, has thrived, including a six-touchdown performance in Saturday’s 55-35 win over Utah State. After the game, Pavia even showed off his singing voice.
Diego Pavia sang the @VandyFootball alma mater with @AlyssaLang 😂⚓️ pic.twitter.com/KVIkxpVrL2
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 27, 2025
Not to be outdone, Manning quickly attempted to revive his own Heisman hopes by doing a passable karaoke rendition of “Islands in the Stream” with Steve Sarkisian at a local Applebees.
4. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith
The Buckeyes’ offense has been fairly conservative in two tougher matchups against Texas and, Saturday, vs. Washington. Still, Smith has shined, catching eight passes for 81 yards and a score in a 24-6 win over the Huskies. Afterwards, he taught Julian Sayin how to shave.
5. Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy
Another week, another 100-yard game for Hardy. The ULM transfer carried 24 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns in a win over UMass. But if he had stayed at his previous school, he’d be out celebrating with a Rice Bowl trophy right now, so it’s a mixed bag for Hardy.
Oregon’s win at Penn State catapulted the Ducks into the top three this week, but they weren’t the only movers on a statement Saturday where winning on the road provided an extra boost.
Welcome back, Alabama.
There’s a temporary ceiling, though, for some of these contenders, as the selection committee’s head-to-head tiebreaker is factoring into the ranking. It’s one of several tiebreakers they use when comparing teams, and as long as the teams have similar records, the group has historically leaned on the head-to-head result. That’s helping Florida State tremendously right now.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to-date, the ones with statement wins and/or multiple wins against respectable teams have the early edge.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be as teams enter the heart of conference play. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Canes had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Florida State, but entered this week ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — a statistic that has historically aligned with the selection committee’s top four teams. With Notre Dame’s resounding win at Arkansas, the Canes’ season-opening win against the Irish continues to shine. Miami’s wins against South Florida and Florida — both of which had bye weeks — continues to collectively help separate the Canes.
Why they could be lower: The Canes have won all four games at home — at a point in the season when other contenders have had to win tough games on the road. Both Ohio State and Oregon have now won tough conference road games.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against FSU could be Miami’s last game during the regular season against a ranked opponent. Right now, Miami is on track for a top four seed, which means a first-round bye. If the Canes lose to FSU — and/or if they finish as the ACC runner-up — this could impact their seeding because so many SEC teams have loaded schedules in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gave the Canes a 63.6% chance to win. The Canes are projected to win each of their remaining games and have the best chance in the conference (67.9%) to reach the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: It wasn’t an easy trip to the West Coast, where the Buckeyes held a precarious 7-3 halftime lead against Washington, but they found a way. This was Ohio State’s first road game, and it took until the second half to find an offensive groove, but this was a respectable Big Ten win to complement the season-opener against Texas.
Why they could be lower: Oregon’s win at Penn State currently looks better than Ohio State’s home win against the Longhorns. The committee could value that one win more than Ohio State’s two against Texas and Washington.
Need to know: Two of Ohio State’s next three games are on the road — Oct. 11 at Illinois and Oct. 18 at Wisconsin. The Illini rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Indiana with a close win against USC on Saturday. That should keep them in the top 25 and give the Buckeyes another opportunity against a ranked opponent, which they might need if Texas struggles in the SEC and the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 against Penn State.
Why they could be here: The Ducks earned their first statement win — and they did it in double overtime on the road — but it was their first win against an FBS opponent above .500. Northwestern is 2-2, Oklahoma State is 1-3 and has already fired its head coach, Oregon State is 0-5 and Montana State is an FCS program. As much hype as there has been around Penn State, the Nittany Lions remain a team without any wins against Power 4 opponents.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been dominant against the weaker teams and found a way to beat one of the best teams — on the road. The win at Penn State is better than Ohio State’s home win against Texas, and the Ducks have two road wins compared to none for the Canes.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, and it has a bye week to prepare for the Hoosiers on Oct. 11.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This might be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face during the regular season following USC’s loss to Illinois.
Why they could be here: The Aggies were able to build upon their win at Notre Dame by beating Auburn, giving Texas A&M some staying power in the playoff race. It helped that the Irish won convincingly at Arkansas, meaning A&M’s victory in South Bend remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country. Wins against UTSA and Utah State aren’t going to help the Aggies’ résumé, but their defensive performance against Auburn will impress the committee.
Why they could be lower: Oklahoma also beat Auburn in similar fashion, and has a strong nonconference win against Michigan. The Sooners don’t have a road win on par with beating the Irish in South Bend, though. Ole Miss has a case to be ranked ahead of both of them because of its full body of work, which now includes three SEC wins and a win against Tulane.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against Mississippi State could be tougher than originally expected. The Bulldogs pushed Tennessee to overtime in Week 5. The Aggies should be favored to win their next three games (Mississippi State, Florida and at Arkansas). If they lose one of those games, it puts pressure on them to have a winning record against the remaining three ranked opponents: LSU, Mizzou and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. Even though the Tigers lost, their defense is still one of the best the Aggies will face, and they’ll have home field advantage — possibly at night.
Why they could be here: The Rebels knocked off LSU, and have now won four straight games against respectable opponents, including three SEC teams (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). It also helped that Tulane beat Tulsa, and the Green Wave remains in contention for a playoff spot as one of the five highest ranked conference champions if they can win the American. Overall, this is one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, but Ole Miss is also passing the eye test as a complete team.
Why they could be lower: Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 4-5, and Georgia State is 1-3 in the Sun Belt.
Need to know: The Rebels have one of the more winnable remaining SEC schedules of the contenders, with back-to-back trips to Georgia and Oklahoma their biggest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels also have something key to impressing the selection committee — two quarterbacks capable of starting. The play of backup quarterbacks is critical to the selection process (it kept undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023, but helped Ohio State in during the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is more than capable of leading a team toward an SEC title run.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels also have an Oct. 25 trip to Oklahoma, but it’s unclear if the Sooners will have injured starting quarterback John Mateer back by then (unlikely).
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye and the committee would rank them based on what they’ve done to-date — with quarterback John Mateer in the lineup. The committee doesn’t project ahead, so the hand injury he suffered in the first quarter isn’t a factor in this week’s prediction. Wins against Auburn and Michigan are still among the best in the country, and the nonconference win against the Wolverines can continue to help separate the Sooners from other teams that played weaker schedules.
Why they could be higher: Oklahoma was passing the eye test with Mateer in the lineup, and the committee doesn’t typically move teams around if they don’t play — unless teams around them are shuffled. The group could give the Sooners more credit for wins against Michigan and Auburn than Ole Miss’ wins against Kentucky and Arkansas. Still, it’s hard for OU to win a debate against the Rebels’ entire résumé, which now includes the LSU win.
Need to know: The committee’s protocol requires their consideration of factors like injuries to key players. If Oklahoma loses a game or two with Mateer sidelined, the committee will understand the circumstance. That doesn’t mean it’s a hall pass to play poorly, but it does mean it can be overcome. A two-loss OU team that rebounds and runs the table with Mateer in the lineup (and playing like he did before he was injured), is almost a shoe-in for the playoff. They’d have to beat all ranked opponents in the second half of the season. The timeline for Mateer’s return, though, is uncertain. And as long as he’s out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based on if they look like a top-12 team with sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. in the lineup.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. This is suddenly an even bigger challenge, as Mateer should still be recovering from hand surgery. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 66.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The head-to-head with Alabama still looms large because it’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to help rank teams with comparable records. As long as FSU and Bama both have one loss, the committee would likely refer to its protocol. The group would also recognize Friday’s loss was in double overtime on the road, and so far, Virginia is a respectable 4-1 opponent. Virginia athletic director Carla Williams is a member of the selection committee, and while she can’t vote or participate in discussions about UVA, she can give information about what she saw from the Noles, and can provide information about her program.
Why they could be lower: The Noles didn’t pass the eye test. They were beaten up front, made two many mistakes early, and were playing from behind most of the game.
Need to know: FSU now has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics, behind Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Miami. This might be FSU’s last chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The Tide reasserted itself as a playoff contender, winning their first statement game of the season after a season-opening loss at Florida State. That head-to-head result, though, is keeping the Tide behind the Noles because it’s one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to rank comparable teams. Still, it was enough to push Alabama back into the playoff conversation after three straight wins and it keeps the Tide in the hunt to win the SEC.
Why they could be higher: The win at Georgia was on the road, and the Tide passed the eye test — something Florida State didn’t do this week.
Need to know: Alabama entered Saturday with the seventh toughest remaining schedule in the country, as five of the next seven opponents are ranked. Saturday’s win at Georgia gives the Tide a slight cushion in the SEC race.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee. The game against LSU won’t be easy, but Bama’s offense looks better. The Vols gave Georgia fits and could do the same to Bama.
Why they could be here: The head-to-head loss to the Tide will keep Georgia below Alabama, but the same tiebreaker will keep Georgia ahead of the Vols. The win against Tennessee still looks good, even as the Vols struggled to beat Mississippi State. The overtime win against Tennessee is all they have, though, as home wins against Austin Peay and Marshall don’t help their case.
Why they could be lower: Georgia was fortunate to beat Tennessee, and Indiana is still undefeated.
Need to know: Rival Georgia Tech is still undefeated following a scare against Wake Forest on Saturday and should be favored in each of its games leading into the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels might be better than last year, when they had what many believed to be a more talented team.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers escaped on Saturday with a 20-15 win at Iowa, a notoriously difficult place to play. A close win is better than a loss, just ask fellow contenders LSU and Florida State which dropped road games this week. It was the fewest points IU had scored this season, but Indiana now has back-to-back Big Ten wins and its first road win. It also helped IU that Illinois beat USC, further legitimizing the Hoosiers’ 63-10 beatdown of the Illini.
Why they could be lower: If IU is below Penn State after the Nittany Lions lost at home to Oregon, it would simply because more people in the committee meeting room think PSU is the more talented team. It would be tough to justify, though, given Penn State’s three wins weren’t against Power 4 teams. The committee might not think Illinois is a top 25 team, also leaving the Hoosiers without a win against a ranked opponent.
Need to know: The Hoosiers have a bye week to prepare for their Oct. 11 trip to Oregon. IU doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan, but the Hoosiers will have a more difficult path to the playoff this year than last with road trips to Oregon and Penn State still looming.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Ducks’ win at Penn State was proof the defending Big Ten champs are still at the top of the league, along with Ohio State. If IU could pull off the upset in Autzen, it would be one of the biggest of the season.
Why they could be here: The loss to Georgia is keeping the Vols behind the Bulldogs, and they got a scare on Saturday at Mississippi State before winning in overtime. The season-opening win against Syracuse doesn’t look as impressive after the Orange lost 38-3 to Duke. Unlike LSU, though, the Vols haven’t had any trouble finding points.
Why they could be lower: The Vols lost at home to Georgia, which took a slight hit after the Bulldogs lost to Alabama. Meanwhile, LSU lost on the road to undefeated Ole Miss. It’s possible the committee would have LSU ahead of Tennessee and Penn State.
Need to know: The Vols have a bye week to prepare for Arkansas before back-to-back SEC road games against Alabama and Kentucky.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide has improved each week since its loss to Florida State and is favored to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions are a talented team, but don’t have the résumé to show for it. With wins against Villanova, FIU and Nevada, Penn State has the worst résumé of all the contenders. The committee considers how teams lose, too, and the gap between Oregon and Penn State clearly isn’t that wide.
Why they could be lower: LSU lost on the road to an undefeated Ole Miss team, while PSU lost at home. LSU also has wins against Clemson and Florida, and while those teams have struggled this year, they’re still better than what PSU has on its résumé.
Need to know: If Penn State doesn’t beat Ohio State, it’s not a lock to reach the playoff at 10-2. This is already a dangerous spot for the Nittany Lions, as they would be bumped out of the CFP to make room the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions. In this scenario, both the Big 12 and American champs are ranked outside of the projected top 10. If Penn State loses to Ohio State, it has to beat Indiana to have a chance.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. If the Nittany Lions couldn’t beat Oregon at home, how are they going to beat the defending national champs on the road?
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Jake Trotter
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — After their latest loss to a top-10 opponent, Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said he understands the growing frustration of the Penn State fan base.
The third-ranked Nittany Lions fell 30-24 in double overtime to No. 6 Oregon on Saturday night in front of a “White Out” crowd at Beaver Stadium.
The defeat dropped Franklin to 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents, including 1-18 against top-10 Big Ten teams.
“I get that narrative and it’s really not a narrative — it’s factual. It’s the facts,” Franklin said. “I try to look at the entire picture and what we’ve been able to do here. But at the end of the day, we got to find a way to win those games. I totally get it. And I take ownership. I take responsibility.”
Franklin’s .160 winning percentage against AP top-10 teams is tied for the third-worst record by a coach (minimum of 25 games) at a single school since the poll era began in 1936, according to ESPN Research.
“We have a passionate fan base,” Franklin said. “When we win, there’s nothing better. When we lose, there’s nothing worse. So, I get it. I get the frustration that comes with a fan base that is invested and cares.”
The Nittany Lions nearly pulled off their biggest fourth-quarter comeback since 2016 against Ohio State — which remains Franklin’s only Big Ten win against a top-10 opponent.
Penn State trailed 17-3, but senior quarterback Drew Allar engineered back-to-back touchdown drives to send the game to overtime. The Nittany Lions then scored a touchdown on the third play of the opening overtime possession.
But the Ducks answered with a touchdown, then scored another on the first play of the second overtime.
On the ensuing snap, Allar threw an interception to Dillon Thieneman, sealing the Ducks’ dramatic victory.
“I tried to get the ball over the guy’s head,” Allar said. “He jumped up and caught the ball.”
During Big Ten media days over the summer, Allar said it was time for Penn State “to get over that hump” in big games. Allar’s fourth-quarter interception in the College Football Playoff semifinals last season set up Notre Dame’s game-winning field goal and ended Penn State’s season.
Allar, Penn State’s starter since 2023, is 0-6 in his career against AP top-6 opponents. He has one victory against a top-10 team, which occurred in last year’s CFP quarterfinals against Boise State.
“Obviously, it hurts,” Allar said. “We had our opportunities. … But it’s a long season ahead of us. We’re going to have more opportunities to fix this — and I’ll be the first one to go into the fire.”
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