‘I’m living proof’: How Lucas Erceg is using his sobriety journey to inspire others
BOONVILLE, Missouri — The softball field at Boonville Correctional Center has two fences. The first is a standard outfield fence, 275 feet from home plate, stretching from foul line to foul line. The second, about 50 feet farther, is made of taut barbed-wire strands ringed by circles of razor wire, separating the state penitentiary from the world. It’s a stark reminder that the field is, quite literally, a diamond in the rough.
That didn’t keep Lucas Erceg from admiring it. Erceg, who over the past two seasons has established himself as one of the most reliable relief pitchers in baseball for the Kansas City Royals, had arrived at Boonville, a minimum security facility that houses more than 800 inmates, about an hour earlier. He walked through a door that listed the rules to enter — no tight, transparent or otherwise revealing clothing; no holes in jeans or pants; no skirts, dresses or shorts above the top of the kneecap — and, as he toured the grounds, stopped at the field to appreciate its beauty amid the endless array of brick buildings that surround it.
Erceg had found purpose and meaning on the baseball field, and it brought him here, about 90 minutes east of Kansas City, Missouri, on an off day. Soon after Erceg was traded to the Royals last year, Tristram “Sean” McCormack, the chaplain at the facility, sent Erceg a letter asking if he would consider speaking to a group of inmates. Willie Mays Aikens, the former Royals first baseman who had served 14 years in federal prison for selling crack to an undercover police officer, had spoken at Boonville. So had Darryl Strawberry, the former New York Mets and New York Yankees star whose issues with drugs derailed his career. Even if Erceg were comparatively anonymous, McCormack believed his story would resonate with those incarcerated.
The date they settled on, June 9, was exactly five years to the day Erceg swallowed his last sip of alcohol. He is not shy about recounting his sobriety journey, but never before had he done it in front of a group of people so large, many of whom shared a similar history. His wife, Emma, had encouraged Erceg “to try and make something more out of my outlet as a baseball player and do more with the opportunities that I have.” And so here he was, wearing a black shirt, chinos and white sneakers, flanked by Emma, nervous as he had been in years, striding toward the final stop of the tour.
They arrived in front of the building where he would talk with the group. HOPE CHAPEL, a sign out front said, with the building number on another sign underneath it: 17. It just happened to be Erceg’s favorite number growing up. He isn’t necessarily one to believe in kismets, but the anniversary, a chapel named after his underlying ethos — and now the number? This couldn’t all be coincidence.
“It was meant to be,” Erceg said.
HAD ERCEG NOT awoken June 10, 2020, and committed to never drinking again, he worries he would have ended up somewhere like Boonville or even worse. It’s a complicated reality to confront, one that makes him appreciative not only of the career he has built but of the support system that buoyed him as he foundered.
Stability had never found Erceg in his youth. He grew up in Campbell, California, about 10 miles southwest of San Jose. His mom had a drinking problem. His dad was abusive. Erceg nevertheless thrived at Westmont High as a third baseman and pitcher, earning a scholarship to Cal, where his worst instincts took root. He drank constantly. He stopped going to class. Suicidal thoughts rippled through his mind. After being named first-team All-Pac-12 as a sophomore, he flunked out of school.
“I always used baseball as an outlet to kind of get away from all that and just go out and compete,” Erceg said. “I had natural abilities, and I had that natural fire, that natural competitor in me that kind of took me to the next level quickly. But I wasn’t a man, you know what I mean? I didn’t make the right decisions. And I think that’s when alcoholism kind of imploded on me and took over who I was as a person.”
Erceg transferred to Menlo College, then an NAIA program, and impressed enough for teams to look past his off-field issues and slot him high on their draft boards. The Milwaukee Brewers chose him with the 46th pick in the 2016 draft, scrapped him pitching despite his pleas to be a two-way player and envisioned him as their third baseman of the future. Erceg struggled to establish himself as a prospect, and his drinking went inverse with his career prospects. He chalked up his missteps — one time, he drank too much during a round of golf with his close friend, now-Yankees center fielder Trent Grisham, and flipped a cart when attempting to do a donut — to youthful indiscretion, not problematic behavioral patterns.
When COVID hit in 2020, Erceg spent his days pounding beers and playing Fortnite. Emma, whom he married in 2022 after they had met at Menlo six years earlier would arrive home, find 15 empty beer cans strewn about and “try to understand how it got to this point.” Deep down, she knew Erceg was drowning his unresolved childhood trauma in beer, which turned him mean. That June, Emma told Erceg she was leaving their home in Phoenix and gave him an ultimatum: If he did not stop drinking in the next two weeks, she wouldn’t come back. He resolved then and there: no more alcohol. He could do this, through single-mindedness and grit, like he had so many other things.
“Looking back on it now … I was constantly putting myself in the worst position possible to have success but still able to find that success just so I can say, ‘Hey, I did that. I did that on my own,'” Erceg said. “I didn’t need any help. I didn’t ask for help. I didn’t want help. I was kind of flipping people the bird when they reached out their hand.”
Erceg quit cold turkey. No rehab program. No 12-step meetings. The first three months of sobriety turned him gaunt. Previously a hearty 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds, he lost his taste for food and water and, along the way, almost 40 pounds. Managing life without alcohol was tricky, but Erceg proved adept. When he wasn’t invited to the Brewers’ alternate site for minor league prospects during the pandemic, he drove nearly 1,200 miles from Phoenix to Houston to play for the independent Sugar Land Lightning Sloths. One night in the team hotel, his teammate and bourbon aficionado Joe Wieland poured some in a cup and placed it on a PlayStation for Erceg. It was the first time Erceg had to explain to someone why he couldn’t drink. Wieland apologized and snatched away the cup, his support the sort of building block Erceg needed to resurrect his career.
Eventually, Erceg’s appetite and weight returned, and along came a plan by the Brewers to transition him into a full-time pitcher. It had been five years since he had been on the mound, and while his arm remained exceptional, the art of pitching would take time to master. Erceg spent 2021 at Double-A and split the next season between Double-A and Triple-A, showing flashes of excellence with a slider and changeup to complement a fastball that could touch triple digits. The A’s believed in Erceg’s talent enough to purchase his contract from Milwaukee for $100,000 in May 2023 and add him to their major league roster.
In less than three years, he had gone from nearly drinking himself out of the game to the big leagues. As a 28-year-old rookie, he struck out 68 batters in 55 innings. Teams took notice, and at the 2024 trade deadline, Erceg was one of the most sought-after relievers available. The Royals landed him for three prospects, and within two weeks, he was their closer. He locked down both of their wins in a wild-card series sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, and as Erceg tried to navigate the postgame celebration in which droplets of champagne pooled on his mustache, he remembered a night out with Emma in the winter of 2022. He ordered a non-alcoholic Moscow mule, took a sip and immediately recognized the bartender had made it with vodka. Erceg spit it back into the copper mug.
One taste could lead him back to the depths he had worked so hard to leave in the past.
REMAINING COGNIZANT OF that past is part of Erceg’s recovery, and it’s why when McCormack described Boonville’s goals to him, they sounded familiar: education, vocation, restorative justice. Erceg has done much of the same, learning who he was, is and wants to be, absorbing the skills that promote success and doing right by those done wrong by his actions.
The tour of Boonville showed Erceg the side of prison he otherwise would never have understood. The facility, which until 1983 was a home for minors who had run afoul of the law, had evolved in recent years to emphasize that imprisonment offers opportunities for personal growth. Restorative justice programs aim to take away a purely punitive approach to criminality by providing offenders opportunities in the local community to repair the damage they caused. Missouri’s Department of Corrections leaned into that concept with nearly 20 programs offered to those incarcerated in its 21 facilities.
The men at Boonville can attend school four days a week. For those who prefer to ply a trade, one program gives graduates professional welding certification. When Erceg walked into a room with heavy equipment simulators — wheel loader, bulldozer and excavator — he looked at Emma and said: “Wow.” Even though the dirt they were moving was virtual, the operators wore hard hats and fluorescent vests and worked eight-hour days to prepare them for as smooth of a reentry as possible into life outside of razor-wired walls.
In Boonville’s wood shop, funded by money collected at the prison’s canteen, men make a variety of items — perhaps the most popular are the cornhole boards given to local communities to raise money at auctions. Puppies for Parole, a program that offers dog training certification to those who work on the grounds with rescues, is a welcome sliver of home. On the day Erceg visited, around 30 men were at work-release jobs beyond the walls of Boonville.
“In the last five, six years, the department has changed its focus, and we’re trying to set them up to be successful when they go home,” said Justin Page, the warden at Boonville. “What is that going to do to recidivism? It’s going to take another 10 or 15 years to really see. But I always say: How can it be a bad thing? We give guys tools that they didn’t have before they came here.”
The tour crystallized Erceg’s sense of what he needed to say when he arrived at Hope Chapel. He knows how fortunate he is. Beyond the fame, the money, the privilege that comes with being a Major League Baseball player, he has freedom and agency. Inside him, though, is still the shared pain that fomented so many bad decisions. Since June 10, 2020, he better understands it doesn’t define him — just as their decisions and incarceration don’t define them.
“Dealing with adversity when you’re growing up and in your life — it takes a toll on you mentally, it takes a toll on you physically,” Erceg said. “Addiction is a serious topic, and I don’t think it gets enough reach. So I want to make what I’ve been through relevant in these inmates’ eyes and make them appreciate life for what it is, no matter what the circumstances are.”
DOZENS OF MEN wearing standard-issue gray uniforms filed into Hope Chapel around lunchtime June 9 and filled the wooden pews. The roof above them was made of tin and tattered, the walls to their sides bright with stained glass and the scene in front of them welcoming: McCormack, their friendly faced pastor, sitting with Erceg, who was trying to hide the nerves surging inside of him. Emma chuckled. Over the winter, Erceg had done a smaller-scale version of this, talking with a group of local children who had been in trouble.
“He was red as a freaking tomato, all nervous,” Emma said. “He can pitch in front of 40,000 people with bases loaded and not break a sweat. But public speaking is difficult.”
Erceg hid it well. He smiled as McCormack ran a short video explaining who Erceg was. He looked comfortable in front of a microphone, his legs crossed, his posture at ease. More than anything, he recognized that he was doing exactly what Emma encouraged him to: giving a little bit of himself, being vulnerable to those whose state in life made them inherently even more so.
“Before we even get started, I just want to tell you this: Thank you for taking the time out of your day to listen to what I have to say,” Erceg said. “At the end of the day, I only have one goal in mind being here, and that’s just to connect with you guys. I don’t want to make it seem like I’m here to talk at you. I want to make sure that you guys understand that this means a lot to me.”
He delved into his background: the tough upbringing, the successes in spite of it, the failures because of it. The value in talking, as uncomfortable as it might be. The need for support, whether it’s from family, friends, community, religion, work — wherever it can be found. And the ultimate realization that previous decisions do not foretell future ones.
“I know that if I take a drink, all that hard work that I put in the last five years would go out the window and I’d have to restart,” he said. “So it’s almost like for me personally, I’m challenging myself every day to maintain, maintain that slow little step. I mean, five years down the line, I’ve walked a hundred miles. But I know I’ve got a thousand more to go.”
In the back of the chapel sat Alex Luttrell, 38, who in September 2022 drove drunk, passed cars on the wrong side of the road and caused a head-on collision with 25-year-old Steven Stafford, who died in the wreck. Luttrell pleaded guilty to DWI causing death of another and was sentenced to eight years in prison. Since arriving at Boonville, he said, he had sobered up and worked to mend his relationship with his wife and three children.
Through an empowering dads program Boonville offers, Luttrell gets to spend time with his family once a month. He tells them about his work with Puppies for Parole: He trains dogs for Retrieving Freedom, an organization that places dogs with veterans in need of service animals and children with autism who require emotional support.
“When he was being asked what made him finally say, ‘That’s enough. I’ve had enough.’ — I think I related to that the most,” Luttrell said. “For me, it was years and years and years I was drinking. You’re in denial. You don’t want to believe you got a problem. I thought I could stop at any time.”
That shared feeling brought Erceg to Boonville and guides him elsewhere. Earlier this season, he spent a day at Triple-A Omaha on a rehabilitation assignment. Inside the clubhouse, he said, teammates mandated a quick icebreaker. He could sing a song, do a goofy dance, tell them something they might not know about him.
“I made the decision to say something interesting about myself,” Erceg said, “and I immediately just shared, ‘Hey, I’m about to be five years sober. Please, if you guys want to come to me anonymously and share your story with me, I’m more than willing to help and just talk you through some things. It’s a scary road to go down, but I promise it looks good on the other side. Like I said, I’m living proof.’
“And immediately one of my teammates came up to me. He shared with me that he was working on three months of sobriety. I just gave him a big hug and told him, ‘Thank you for sharing.’ And that’s something that means …”
Erceg paused to compose himself.
“That’s something that means a lot to me because …”
He stopped again. Tears welled in his eyes.
“I know how scared he was to tell me that,” Erceg said. “And he still told me, and that s— fired me up, dude.”
All of Hope Chapel broke into applause.
“I know it meant a lot to him,” Erceg continued. “And selfishly, it meant way more to me. I never thought I would be in that situation because the way I’ve grown up thinking about myself and all that stuff, but to have him do that was truly special. And I hope you all get to experience that too, because like I said, it’s special and you don’t really understand how much it means to you until you’re in the right spot to understand that.”
Emma jokes with Erceg that he is almost too positive, relentlessly so, but really it’s just a rebalancing. All the years of sadness that drove him to drink excessively warrant a cosmic equalization. Erceg likes to say that the day he stopped drinking, his life went from black and white to color. His day at Boonville felt like the whole Pantone spectrum, filled with shades he didn’t know existed.
Erceg wrapped the session by offering to let those at Boonville pick his entrance music — “I ain’t doing NSYNC, though,” he said, drawing laughs from the attendees who soon thereafter lined up to shake Erceg’s hand and thank him. For the insight, and for the honesty, and for caring about people most of society forgets.
As he walked toward the exit, Luttrell, standing with the black lab he was training, waved goodbye. McCormack and the rest of the staff thanked Erceg and Emma for their time. They jumped into their car and went into immediate debrief mode.
“I don’t like giving myself credit,” Erceg said, “but I just kept thinking like, ‘Hey, you did a really good thing.’ And that’s something that was important and it stuck out to me because I don’t think we as humans give ourselves enough credit.”
It’s something Erceg is trying to do more. Every time he cracks a bottle of sparkling water instead of a bottle of booze: That’s a win. Every time he’s feeling down and speaks to a therapist instead of turning to alcohol: That’s a win. Every time he plays Fortnite without needing a swig from a can of beer: That’s a win. They pile up, day after day, and help him believe he is going to be the sort of parent his never were when his and Emma’s first child, due Dec. 28, arrives.
Whenever the doubts creep in, Erceg knows all he needs to do is look down at his glove to validate just how strong he is. The stitching above his thumb is there as a reminder:
“6/10/2020,” it says. The day his life forever changed — and set him on the course to change others’.
Go to SAMHSA.gov or call the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration at (800) 662-HELP [4357] or TTY (800) 487-4889.
Sports
Red Sox in must-win mode? Are Yankees back? What you should — and shouldn’t — believe in the American League
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David Schoenfield
A few days ago, we checked in on what to believe and what not to in the National League. Well, the American League is perhaps even more chaotic.
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are in the midst of a crucial four-game series at Yankee Stadium — with the final game on “Sunday Night Baseball” at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams will try to make a statement and inch closer to the Toronto Blue Jays at the top of the division while staying ahead in the wild-card race.
The Blue Jays had been hot — except they just lost a series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The Houston Astros were recently shut out three games in a row (and four out of five) but kept their slim hold on first place in the AL West because the Seattle Mariners went 2-7 on a recent road trip, including a brutal three-game wipeout in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers might be back on track, and the Kansas City Royals are suddenly surging.
Let’s check on the current states of overreaction in the AL and make some verdicts.
Overreaction: Judge! Bellinger! Stanton! The Yankees are back, baby!
Calm down there, tiger. The Yankees took two of three from Minnesota. They scored 24 runs in sweeping St. Louis, and then they bashed nine home runs in a win over Tampa Bay.
The middle of the order is leading the way. Aaron Judge is back off the injured list. Cody Bellinger has proven to be one of the most unheralded pickups of last offseason, on his way to his most home runs since his MVP season of 2019. The big shocker has been Giancarlo Stanton, though. He missed the first two-plus months of the season because of what was described as a double tennis elbow, as if he had spent the offseason working on his backhand slice, preparing for the French Open. In 46 games since returning in mid-June, he’s hitting .311/.389/..642, producing what is easily his highest OPS since his MVP season of 2017, and has been so hot that the Yankees played him a few games in right field to keep his bat in the lineup (allowing Judge to DH while working on returning to the field) even though Stanton is less mobile than the monuments in center field.
So, it has been a nice stretch after losing records in June and July. But there are still issues. Max Fried, who starts Friday night, is scuffling, with a 6.80 ERA over his past eight starts. He hasn’t had a quality start since June. The back of the bullpen is still sorting out things, as David Bednar has replaced Devin Williams as the closer (and blew the save Wednesday, although the Yankees won in extra innings), but Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, two other trade deadline acquisitions, haven’t made an impact. There could still be a terrific bullpen here, especially if Williams gets straightened out, but let’s hold off on declaring that.
And Judge still hasn’t played the outfield. Though manager Aaron Boone played Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there is less ground to cover, he hasn’t played Stanton in the field on the road, leaving him as a part-time player for now. Ryan McMahon, the team’s other big deadline move, has been getting on base but has one home run in 22 games with the Yankees.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. You can make the argument that if everything was clicking for the Yankees, they have the most upside and deepest roster in the AL: a potential ace in Fried, a potential No. 2 in Carlos Rodon, a potential wipeout bullpen, the best hitter in the sport in Judge and power up and down the lineup. They haven’t played that well against the top teams in the AL, however, including a combined 4-13 record against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and Fried’s current struggles are a big concern. Let’s not put the Yankees in the playoffs yet.
Overreaction: The Red Sox have to win this series against the Yankees
The likeliest scenario in a four-game series between two evenly matched teams is, of course, a split. That would leave the Red Sox where they started the series, one game behind the Yankees and in third place in the AL East, but potentially in a much tighter wild-card picture. Still, after winning their first five games in August, the Red Sox went 3-7 in their past 10 games entering the Yankees series, so that makes this series a little more pressure-packed even for a late-August Red Sox-Yankees showdown.
Most frustrating, the Red Sox lost two games in extra innings in that 3-7 stretch and also lost both games that Garrett Crochet started. He had one bad start against the Houston Astros, lasting four innings in his worst start of the season, and then the bullpen blew a 3-1 lead to the Miami Marlins as Greg Weissert and Steven Matz allowed ninth-inning home runs when Aroldis Chapman was unavailable to close. Chapman had pitched the previous games and had thrown only 14 pitches over the two outings, so it was a dubious decision by manager Alex Cora (Chapman had appeared in three consecutive games earlier in the season).
One key for the Red Sox down the stretch: How much will Cora push his top pitchers? Crochet is already past his innings total of 2024 and hasn’t pitched on four days’ rest since June 18, with rest periods of seven and nine days during that span. Chapman has had a dominant season but has pitched just 48 innings in 53 appearances and has rarely made even back-to-back outings. The Yankees series begins a stretch for Boston of 13 games in 13 days and 19 in 20, so Cora will have to make some decisions with his rotation.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Is there urgency to turn things around? Of course. Is this a do-or-die series? No, it’s still too early to make that claim, especially with the Red Sox still in a solid wild-card position (granted, chasing down the Blue Jays remains the ultimate goal). On the other hand, this eight-game road trip to New York and Baltimore looms large, given the Red Sox are just 28-34 on the road– and the Orioles have been playing better of late. A bad road trip could be disastrous. Check back next week.
Overreaction: The Blue Jays — not the Tigers — are now the best team in the AL
The Blue Jays have gone 48-26 since May 28 — the second-best record in the majors behind Milwaukee since that date. They have the highest OPS in the majors since then and only the Brewers are close to them in runs scored (Boston has scored the third-most runs and is 50 runs behind the Blue Jays since May 28). It hasn’t been just Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette either. George Springer and Addison Barger have mashed, Daulton Varsho has had a big August and role players such as Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, Ernie Clement and Tyler Heineman have been excellent. Toronto has a sneaky deep lineup.
Oh, and Max Scherzer has suddenly reeled off five straight quality starts.
On the other hand, the Tigers seem back on track after that stretch in July when they lost 11 of 12. They’ve won four series in a row, granted, three of those were against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and diminished Minnesota Twins, but they also just swept the Astros, knocking around Framber Valdez in the series finale Wednesday and tossing shutouts in the other two wins. Charlie Morton has helped stabilize the rotation with three excellent starts in his four turns with the Tigers, and the bullpen — with added reinforcements from the trade deadline — has been much better in August after struggling in July. Kerry Carpenter has also been mashing since his return in late July.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. If you’re buying Scherzer and Eric Lauer as frontline starters and all the surprising offensive performances, then it’s not unreasonable to suggest the Blue Jays are the team to beat. Some of those offensive numbers are skewed by that crazy series at Coors Field when they scored 45 runs in three games, however, and when considering the entire season, the Tigers still have the better run differential (as do the Yankees and Red Sox). The Jays’ bandwagon is gaining momentum, but the AL still feels like one big group of teams that will all finish 92-70.
Overreaction: The Astros can’t hit, and the Mariners can’t pitch
Does anyone want to win the AL West? It doesn’t seem like it (you can even throw in the Texas Rangers, who were tied with the Mariners on July 30 but have gone 6-13 since then in playing a difficult August schedule). The Astros are hitting just .226 in August with a .649 OPS. Carlos Correa has been their best hitter, so it’s hard to criticize that trade, but Jesus Sanchez has hit .150 with one RBI for Houston while rookie Cam Smith has fallen into a slump. Getting back Yordan Alvarez, who just began a rehab assignment, will be a big lift if he’s healthy.
As for the Mariners, they have their top five starters healthy for the first time, but this road trip exposed their secret: Their rotation is vastly overrated. The Mariners are 26th in rotation ERA on the road. Bryan Woo is the only starter of those five with an ERA under 5.00 on the road. Logan Gilbert has a 2.22 ERA at home and 6.00 on the road. Luis Castillo‘s road OPS is nearly 300 points higher than it is at home. They pitch well at home because T-Mobile Park is such a pitcher-friendly park. The Mariners still have two road trips remaining: a nine-game trip to Cleveland, Tampa and Atlanta, and then a six-game trip to Kansas City and Houston.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Both concerns are legitimate. The Astros’ offense hasn’t been terrible this season, but it rates as middle of the pack, and Correa is replacing the injured Isaac Paredes, so he’s not an upgrade. Seattle’s rotation struggles on the road — and lack of bullpen depth — are perhaps an even bigger concern. The season series is tied 5-5. FanGraphs projects a dead heat for the division title. The teams will meet once more in Houston during the second-to-last weekend of the regular season — and that series might decide the AL West.
Overreaction: The Royals will make the playoffs
As the Red Sox, Astros and Mariners have stumbled over the past 10 games, it opened the door for the Royals, who won five in a row and seven of eight to inch closer in the wild-card race (with Cleveland right there, as well). Bobby Witt Jr. is raking in August, Vinnie Pasquantino has been crushing home runs and, further proof of the unpredictability of the trade deadline, Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier, two seemingly minor pickups, have been outstanding.
The Royals are doing this without Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, but Noah Cameron continues to pitch well and fellow rookie Ryan Bergert, who came over in the Freddy Fermin trade, has delivered three good starts. Just like last year’s team, the Royals have that spark of optimism rising at the right time.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. We’ll learn more about the Royals with this weekend’s series in Detroit and then the rematch next weekend in Kansas City. Otherwise, however, their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way, including a season-ending road trip to Anaheim and Sacramento against two teams that will be playing out the string. The vibes are good. The Royals will sneak in as a wild-card team.
Sports
Overreactions to the dog days of August: Brewers’ dominance, Mets’ struggles and more from the NL
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David Schoenfield
Whew. That was some weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers kept winning — until they finally lost. The New York Mets kept losing — until they finally won. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big statement, the Philadelphia Phillies suffered a crushing injury, and the Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats remain cold.
What’s going on with these National League contenders? With fan bases in euphoria or despair, let’s make some verdicts on those current states of overreaction.
Overreaction: The Brewers are unquestionably MLB’s best team
“Unquestionably” is a loaded word, especially since we’re writing this right after the Brewers reeled off 14 consecutive victories and won a remarkable 29 of 33 games. They became just the 11th team this century to win at least 14 in a row, and you don’t fluke your way to a 14-game winning streak: Each of the previous 10 teams to win that many in a row made the playoffs, and four won 100 games. Baseball being baseball, however, none won the World Series.
The Brewers were just the sixth team this century to win 29 of 33. Cleveland won 30 of 33 in 2017, riding a 22-game winning streak that began in late August. That team, which finished with 102 wins but lost the wild-card series to the New York Yankees, resembled these Brewers as a small-market, scrappy underdog. The Dodgers in 2017 and 2022 and the A’s in 2001 and 2002 also won 29 of 33. None of these teams won the World Series, either.
For the season, the Brewers have five more wins than the Detroit Tigers while easily leading the majors in run differential at plus-168, with the Cubs a distant second at plus-110. Those figures seem to suggest the Brewers are clearly the best team, with a nice balance of starting pitching (No. 1 in ERA), relief pitching (No. 10 in ERA and No. 8 in win probability added), offense (No. 1 in runs scored), defense (No. 7 in defensive runs saved) and baserunning (No. 2 in stolen bases). None of their position players were All-Stars, but other than shortstop Joey Ortiz the Brewers roll out a lineup that usually features eight average-or-better hitters, with Christian Yelich heating up and Andrew Vaughn on a tear since he joined the club.
On the other hand, via Clay Davenport’s third-order wins and losses, which project a team’s winning percentage based on underlying statistics adjusted for quality of opponents, the Brewers are neck-and-neck with the Cubs, with both teams a few projected wins behind the Yankees. Essentially, the Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than might otherwise be expected based on statistics. Indeed, the Brewers lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position while holding their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.
Those underlying stats, though, include the first four games of the season, when the Brewers went 0-4 and allowed 47 runs. Several of those relievers who got pounded early on are no longer in the bullpen, and ever since the Brewers sorted out their relief arms, the pen has been outstanding: It’s sixth in ERA and third in lowest OPS allowed since May 1.
Then factor in that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation (although Misiorowski struggled in his last start following a two-week stint on the injured list). The Brewers are also the best baserunning team in the majors, which leads to a few extra runs above expectation.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers look like the most well-rounded team in the majors, particularly if Yelich and Vaughn keep providing power in the middle of the order. They have played well against good teams: 6-0 against the Dodgers, 3-0 against the Phillies and Boston Red Sox, 4-2 against the New York Mets and 7-3 against the Cincinnati Reds. They’re 5-4 against the Cubs with four games left in the five-game series. None of this guarantees a World Series, but they’re on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team going right now.
Overreaction: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles are a big concern
On July 30, PCA went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs in a 10-3 victory for the Cubs over the Brewers. He was hitting .272/.309/.559, playing electrifying defense in center field, and was the leader in the NL MVP race with 5.7 fWAR, more than a win higher than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Brewers had started to get hot, but the Cubs, after leading the NL Central most of the season, were just a game behind in the standings.
July 31 was an off day. Then the calendar flipped to August and Crow-Armstrong entered a slump that has featured no dying quails, no gorks, no ground balls with eyes. He’s 8-for-52 in August with no home runs, one RBI and two runs scored. The Cubs, averaging 5.3 runs per game through the end of July, are at just 2.75 runs per game in August and have seen the Brewers build a big lead in the division.
Crow-Armstrong’s slump isn’t necessarily a surprise. Analysts have been predicting regression for some time due to one obvious flaw in PCA’s game: He swings at everything. He has the fifth-highest chase rate among qualified batters, swinging at over 42% of pitches out of the strike zone. It seemed likely that it was only a matter of time before pitchers figured out how to exploit Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness.
Doubling down on the regression predictions, PCA has produced strong power numbers despite a below-average hard-hit rate (44th percentile) and average exit velocity (47th percentile). Although raw power isn’t always necessary to produce extra-base power — see Jose Altuve — those metrics were a red flag that PCA might have been overachieving.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. OK, here’s the odd thing: PCA’s chase rate has improved in August to just 28%, but that hasn’t translated to success. His hard-hit rate isn’t much lower than it was the rest of the season (although his average fly ball distance has dropped about 20 feet). His struggles against left-handers are real: After slugging .600 against them in April, he has hit .186 and slugged .390 against them since May 1. He’ll start hitting again at some point, but it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to hit like he did from April through July.
It’s not all on PCA, however. Kyle Tucker has been just as bad in August (.148, no home runs, one RBI). Michael Busch is hitting .151. Seiya Suzuki has only one home run. Those four had carried the offense, and all are scuffling at once. For the Cubs to rebound, they need this entire group to get back on track. Put it this way: The Cubs have won just three of their past eight series — and those were against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.
Overreaction: The Mets are doomed and will miss the playoffs
On July 27, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants to improve to 62-44, holding a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. According to FanGraphs, New York’s odds of winning the division stood at 55% and its chances of making the playoffs were nearly 97%. A few days later, the Mets reinforced the bullpen — the club’s biggest weakness — with Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers at the trade deadline (after already acquiring Gregory Soto).
It’s never that easy with the Mets though, is it? The San Diego Padres swept them. The Cleveland Guardians swept them. The Brewers swept them. Helsley lost three games and blew a lead in another outing. The rotation has a 6.22 ERA in August. The Mets lost 14 of 16 before finally taking the final two games against the Seattle Mariners this past weekend to temporarily ease the panic level from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division and the Mets have dropped to the third wild-card position, just one game ahead of the Reds. The team with the highest payroll in the sport is in very real danger of missing the playoffs.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The bullpen issues are still a concern given Helsley’s struggles, and Rogers has fanned just one of the 42 batters he has faced since joining the Mets. Still, this team is loaded with talent, as reflected in FanGraphs’ playoffs odds, which gave the Mets an 86% chance of making the postseason entering Monday (with the Reds at 14%). One note, however: The Reds lead the season series 2 games to 1, which gives them the tiebreaker edge if the teams finish with the same record. A three-game set in Cincinnati in early September looms as one of the biggest series the rest of the season. Mets fans have certainly earned the right to brood over the team’s current state of play, but the team remains favored to at least squeak out a wild card.
Overreaction: Zack Wheeler’s absence is a big problem for the Phillies
The Phillies’ ace just went on the IL because of a blood clot near his right shoulder, with no timetable on a potential return. The injury is serious enough that his availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Manager Rob Thomson said the team has enough rotation depth to battle on without Wheeler, but there are some other issues there as well:
• Ranger Suarez has a 5.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.
• Aaron Nola was activated from the IL on Sunday to replace Wheeler for his first MLB start in three months and gave up six runs in 2⅓ innings, raising his season ERA to 6.92.
• Taijuan Walker has a 3.34 ERA but also a 4.73 FIP and probably isn’t someone you would feel comfortable starting in a playoff series.
• Even Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent all season, with a 4.21 ERA.
Minus Wheeler, that arguably leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the team’s only sure-thing reliable starter at the moment. Though a trip to the playoffs certainly looks secure, all this opens the door for the Mets to make it a race for the division title.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Making the playoffs is one thing, but it’s also about peaking at the right time, and given the scary nature of Wheeler’s injury, the Phillies might not end up peaking when they need to. Nola certainly can’t be counted on right now and Suarez has suddenly struggled a bit to miss bats. There’s time here for Nola and Suarez to fix things, and the bullpen has been strengthened with the additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, but even with Wheeler, the Phillies are just 22-18 since the beginning of July. Indeed, their ultimate hopes might rest on an offense that has let them down the past two postseasons and hasn’t been great this season aside from Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t score runs, it won’t matter who is on the mound.
Overreaction: The Dodgers just buried the Padres with their three-game sweep
It was a statement series: The Dodgers, battled, bruised and slumping, had fallen a game behind the Padres in the NL West. But they swept the Padres at Dodger Stadium behind stellar outings from Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell, and a clutch Mookie Betts home run to cap a rally from a 4-0 deficit. Still the kings of the NL West, right?
After all, the Dodgers are finally rolling out that dream rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw are all healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. Only Roki Sasaki is missing. Yamamoto has been solid all season, Ohtani ramped up to 80 pitches in his last start, Glasnow has a 2.50 ERA since returning from the IL in July, Snell has reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts, and even Kershaw, while not racking up many strikeouts, has lowered his season ERA to 3.01. That group should carry the Dodgers to their 12th division title in the past 13 seasons.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Calm down. One great series does not mean the Dodgers are suddenly fixed or that the Padres will fade away. The Dodgers’ bullpen is still battling injuries, Betts still has a sub-.700 OPS and injuries have forced them to play Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Buddy Kennedy in the infield. Check back after next weekend, when the Padres host the Dodgers for their final regular-season series of 2025.
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