Raleigh over Judge for MVP? Rankings, predictions as MLB’s award races hit final stretch
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Published
2 months agoon
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admin
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Bradford DoolittleSep 10, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.

Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.

Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.

Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.

Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
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Tucker to Dodgers? A reunion in Philly and Boston? Best fits for top MLB free agents
Published
5 hours agoon
November 6, 2025By
admin

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David SchoenfieldNov 3, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
There is no Juan Soto in MLB free agency this year. There is definitely no Shohei Ohtani. But although there might not be a player who will inspire people to track the flight paths of private jets on social media, it’s an intriguing class of free agents nonetheless — one especially deep in power hitters.
Let’s look at 13 of the most interesting free agents, assuming a few likely player opt-outs, and some potential best fits for each player. We’ll leave out some of the top relievers — Edwin Diaz (opt-out), Robert Suarez (opt-out), Devin Williams — and instead focus on the top position players and starting pitchers available this winter.
Players are ranked in order of their Baseball-Reference WAR from 2025.
2025 stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBIs, 13 SB, 5.0 WAR
2026 age: 30
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Best fit: New York Mets
Bellinger surprisingly tops the list in 2025 WAR, although that doesn’t by any means suggest he’s going to get the biggest contract. Indeed, although he offers positional versatility with his ability to play all three outfield positions as well as first base, teams will be skeptical of his 2025 numbers since he hit .302 with 18 home runs and a .909 OPS at Yankee Stadium with its short porch compared with .241 with 11 home runs and a .715 OPS on the road. Bellinger works for the Mets both in center field — heck, they were playing 33-year-old infielder Jeff McNeil out there at times — and at first, if they don’t re-sign Pete Alonso.
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Another possible fit: New York Yankees
A reunion with the Yankees is possible, but if the Yankees are committed to Jasson Dominguez in left field and give Spencer Jones a shot in center, they’re going to be reluctant to give Bellinger a long-term contract. Given some of their recent returns on long deals (DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton), they probably don’t want to get sucked into another big contract for a non-superstar player, no matter how good Bellinger was in 2025.
2025 stats: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBIs, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 33
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Best fit: Philadelphia Phillies
Everyone expects Schwarber to return to the Phillies, coming off his 56-homer season and with his added value as one of the best teammates in the game. Nothing is guaranteed, however, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is balancing a lot of decisions this offseason. J.T. Realmuto is also a free agent, Ranger Suarez is a free agent and Zack Wheeler‘s return is a question, plus the team in general is getting older. But it’s still a team in a championship window — if Schwarber remains in the lineup.
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Another possible fit: Mets
Think the Mets would love to steal Schwarber away from the Phillies? Addition and then subtraction from your rival. Would Schwarber leave the Phillies for the enemy? Players are a lot less loyal than we’d like to believe. Starling Marte was the Mets’ primary DH and he’s a free agent, plus consider: The Mets signed Soto and Alonso had a better season — yet they still scored two fewer runs than in 2024. It was an above-average offense, fifth in the NL in runs, but it wasn’t a great offense. Adding Schwarber could take it to the next level.
2025 stats: 12-8. 3.20 ERA, 157 IP, 154 H, 38 BB, 151 SO, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 30
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Best fit: Detroit Tigers
Suarez has been a steady and underrated pitcher since 2021, with a 3.25 ERA over the past five seasons, relying on a six-pitch repertoire that allows him to overcome below-average fastball velocity. He always gets dinged up at some point, so he’s a 150-inning pitcher as opposed to a 180-inning guy, but that still makes him a good fit for the Tigers, who need rotation depth, should have plenty of room in the payroll and could trade Tarik Skubal (sorry, Tigers fans).
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Another possible fit: Toronto Blue Jays
Suarez will have a lot of interest even though he lacks that blistering fastball. Indeed, his lack of No. 1-starter pedigree will bring more teams into the bidding, even if he’s expected to get a nine-figure deal. The Blue Jays are an interesting fit here. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are free agents; Shane Bieber has a player option; and Kevin Gausman is a free agent after the 2026 season. They’ll be looking for some long-term stability in the rotation.
2025 stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBIs, 25 SB, 4.5 WAR
2026 age: 29
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Best fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
If healthy, Tucker would have led this list in WAR — he was hitting .291/.395/.537 for the Chicago Cubs at the end of June when he suffered a fracture in his right hand, which he tried to play through. But he hit just .225 the rest of the way. Indeed, he’s projected to get the biggest contract of the offseason, perhaps as much as $400 million.
As good as he has been, there are some Anthony Rendon vibes here: Tucker has now been injured two years in a row (he also missed much of September with a calf injury); he’s turning 29; his speed/range Statcast metrics aren’t great (26th percentile in both categories); and he’s not a “face of the franchise” type of personality, which you normally expect for $400 million.
Could the Dodgers absorb another huge contract? Well, why not? The Dodgers are the best fit of “will spend money” and “have need,” considering they got nothing from left field in 2025 and suddenly have concerns about Mookie Betts‘ long-term impact at the plate after his subpar (for him) season.
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Another possible fit: San Francisco Giants
The Giants, of course, have been trying to land an elite offensive player in free agency forever — finally trading for Rafael Devers last June. Giants corner outfielders hit just .237/.309/.378 with 37 home runs and 12 stolen bases, so adding Tucker to the lineup would give them a much-needed second lefty power hitter (with rookie slugger Bryce Eldridge likely to take over at first base, too).
2025 stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 192 IP, 171 H, 68 BB, 187 SO, 3.8 WAR
2026 age: 32
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Best fit: Baltimore Orioles
At some point, the Orioles will sign the front-line starter they need, right? Right?! They finished 24th in rotation ERA at 4.65 and had seven starters who made at least 10 starts in 2025 — and four of them had ERAs over 5.00. That’s not going to cut it in the AL East. Trevor Rogers (1.81 ERA in 18 starts) did emerge in the second half, and Kyle Bradish returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of the season, but the Orioles have lacked that durable No. 1-type starter and Valdez is second in innings pitched over the past four seasons.
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Another possible fit: Houston Astros
The Astros have the need to bring Valdez back as the rotation was mostly a mess in 2025 aside from him and Hunter Brown. The payroll, however, looks pretty maxed out with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker and Josh Hader (they’re also paying Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier a combined $39 million in 2026). Don’t rule out a return, but the Astros have let other stars leave in free agency — Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.
2025 stats: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBIs, 3.6 WAR
2026 age: 34
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Best fit: Athletics
The A’s aren’t often included in lists like this one — especially for a player coming off 49 home runs — but a lot of factors could push Suarez to the A’s: his age, his below-average OBP and strikeout rate, his subpar production after he was traded to Seattle. The A’s started nine players at third base in 2025 (players who combined for just 10 home runs), and Suarez would certainly bring power and durability — he has missed just seven games the past three seasons. He’s also a good clubhouse guy who would fit in with the team’s younger players. The A’s surprised people by signing Luis Severino last offseason, so they could land Suarez in a similar scenario.
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Other possible fits: Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners
The Brewers (.234, 11 HR, .650 OPS) and Tigers (.221, 11 HR, .629) both made the playoffs despite subpar production at third base. Milwaukee loves high-contact offensive players, so maybe Suarez doesn’t fit there, and Detroit might not want to add another high-strikeout rate guy in the middle of the lineup on top of Riley Greene. The D-backs and Mariners are familiar with Suarez — he played for each in 2025 — but both have young players in Jordan Lawlar and Colt Emerson whom they could play at third.
2025 stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBIs, 3.5 WAR
2026 age: 32
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Best fit: Boston Red Sox
Bregman hit free agency last year and didn’t sign until the middle of February, a three-year, $120 million deal with opt-outs after both 2025 and 2026. He played well enough with the Red Sox that he’s likely to test free agency, even though a quad strain limited him to 114 games. After a hot start, he didn’t hit nearly as well after returning in July — .250/.338/.386. The big surprise is that the pull-happy Bregman hit better on the road (.875 OPS) than at Fenway (.761 OPS).
Still, the Red Sox remain the best fit. He was an important veteran presence for Boston’s young position players, and he’s a right-handed bat in a lineup otherwise heavy in lefties (Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida). Bregman’s age presents some risk on a long-term deal, but although his speed metrics are sinking (17th percentile), he still has good range at third base and brought his OBP back up after it dropped to .315 in 2024.
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Other possible fits: Tigers, Yankees, Phillies
Bregman’s contact ability makes him a likely fit for the Tigers — and he’ll be too expensive for the Brewers. The interesting long shot candidates would be the Yankees and Phillies. The Yankees have Ryan McMahon under contract, but he posted a .641 OPS after coming over from the Colorado Rockies at the trade deadline and his strikeout issues are a concern. The Phillies have Alec Bohm in his final year of team control, but Bohm produced just 1.3 WAR in 2025 and the Phillies are a little tired of his lack of postseason production (.225, 2 HR, 14 RBIs in 38 playoff games). Bregman’s fire might be what the Phillies need.
2025 stats: .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 31
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Best fit: Mets
Alonso’s stature — and ability to hit home runs and drive in runs — means he’s the highest-profile free agent alongside Schwarber, even if his WAR puts him lower on this list. Alonso has averaged 42 home runs per 162 games throughout his career, and his durability is one of his selling points — he hasn’t missed a game the past two seasons. Alonso was a free agent last year and there wasn’t much interest, so he went back to the Mets on a deal that gave him an opt-out and responded with a better campaign in 2025.
Will there be more demand this offseason? Perhaps. But Alonso is a 31-year-old first baseman who is a below-average defender. He has elite power but not elite on-base percentages. That all makes him a “high risk” category, and he’s not quite in the class of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, the first basemen who received big nine-figure deals since 2022. It’s hard to envision Alonso leaving the Mets, but president of baseball operations David Stearns won’t overpay to bring him back — and Alonso might not be so willing to give the Mets a sweetheart of a deal this time around.
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Other possible fits: Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
The Texas Rangers didn’t get the output they wanted from Jake Burger; the Red Sox could move on from Triston Casas; and the Phillies (if they don’t sign Schwarber) and Atlanta Braves might consider Alonso as a DH, but let’s toss out the Marlins. Their first basemen hit just .234 with 15 home runs. They haven’t had a 2-WAR first baseman since Justin Bour in 2017 or a 3-WAR first baseman since Derrek Lee in 2002. Teams always think they can fill first base with adequate offense, but the Marlins are proof that’s not always the case. Alonso is also from Florida, which might help. A more realistic long shot might be the Nationals, who need a big bopper and have plenty of room in the payroll.
2025 stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 28
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Best fit: Giants
Bichette’s free agency will be fascinating. Given his poor defensive metrics at shortstop, it’s almost a certainty teams will be looking at him as a second or third baseman rather than a shortstop — even the Blue Jays (the team he has been with his entire career), who would move Andres Gimenez to shortstop. That’s not a bad thing for Bichette, as it opens up his possible destinations to more teams if he’s willing to change positions.
Although he is a .294 hitter, it will be interesting to see how he ages: He already doesn’t run well (21st percentile in speed) and he doesn’t walk much, so his offensive production is heavily reliant on his batting average. We mentioned the Giants as a potential fit for Kyle Tucker. The same goes for Bichette, as Giants second basemen hit just .216/.273/.342.
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Another possible fit: Kansas City Royals
OK, can the Royals realistically afford to sign Bichette? Probably not, but a double-play combination of Bobby Witt Jr. and Bichette would be a lot of fun, and Bichette’s style of hitting would be a good fit for that park. Royals second basemen hit just .236 with 11 home runs, and we know the lineup needs something else. The Royals aren’t the Pittsburgh Pirates or Tampa Bay Rays. They will spend some money — although there isn’t much wiggle room based on the 2025 payroll — and there is a contention window right now with their current rotation.
2025 stats: .295/.353/.462, 20 HR, 92 RBIs, 30 SB, 3.1 WAR
2026 age: 29
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Best fit: Mariners
Naylor was the perfect fit for the Mariners, who had not only struggled at first base but also needed a more contact-oriented hitter like Naylor for the middle of the lineup when they traded for him at this year’s deadline. He unveiled one of the most surprising secret weapons, going 30-for-32 as a base stealer despite being one of the slowest runners in baseball. Although many hitters are reluctant to sign with the Mariners, Naylor loves hitting at T-Mobile Park, with a career line of .304/.335/.534. The Mariners should have room to bring him back.
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Another possible fit: Rangers
Rangers first basemen/DHs combined for a .657 OPS — only the Rockies were worse. Texas still has Jake Burger and Joc Pederson (who will probably exercise his $18.5 million player option), but both had sub-.290 OBPs, so the Rangers will consider upgrading.
2025 stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 168 IP, 152 H, 71 BB, 215 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30
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Best fit: Cubs
Cease’s eventual contract will far outpace his ERA and low WAR from 2025. Teams will focus on the power arm (average fastball of 97.1 mph), the high strikeout rate and the durability (five straight seasons with at least 32 starts). A return to the Cubs would be full circle as they originally drafted Cease in the sixth round out of high school in 2014 before trading him to the Chicago White Sox in the Jose Quintana deal.
The 2025 Cubs were a prime example of why teams prefer those power arms in the postseason. With Cade Horton injured, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga were their top two starters, two lefties without high K rates. They have plenty of payroll room to make a big rotation signing.
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Another possible fit: San Diego Padres (and every other contender)
With Cease and Michael King (who has a player opt-out) in free agency, the Padres would have Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, Joe Musgrove (returning from Tommy John surgery) and perhaps Mason Miller in their rotation — and the options thin out in a hurry after that. But is there room in a payroll that is already pushing $200 million heading into the offseason?
2025 stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 192 IP, 176 H, 66 BB, 175 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30
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Best fit: Diamondbacks
Like Cease, Gallen is hitting free agency with a high ERA. Unlike Cease, he averages 93.5 mph with his fastball instead of 97. Gallen’s home run rate nearly doubled from 0.8 per nine innings in 2024 to 1.5 in 2025, and his strikeout rate plummeted to a career-low 21.5%, a notable 5-percentage-points decline from his career rate entering the season. He did pitch better the final two months with a 3.32 ERA. Still, maybe some of the questions push Gallen back to the Diamondbacks, who will enter the offseason down him, Merrill Kelly and Corbin Burnes (Tommy John surgery) from their initial 2025 rotation.
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Another possible fit: Los Angeles Angels
Does anyone want to play for the Angels? Their recent free agent signings have been more of the third-tier type, but they have room in the payroll and two pitchers from their 2025 rotation hitting free agency in Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks. They signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal last offseason and might do something similar this offseason with a starter like Gallen.
Munetaka Murakami, 3B/1B (Japan)
2025 stats: .286/.392/.659, 24 HR, 52 RBIs
2026 age: 26
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Best fit: Mariners
A big left-handed slugger, Murakami has been a star in Japan since he hit 36 home runs as a 19-year-old in 2019. He followed that up with a career-high 56 home runs in 2022. He missed time this past season with an oblique injury but hit 24 home runs in 69 games. He does strike out a concerning amount — 168 times in 140 games in 2023 and 180 times in 143 games in 2024 — so projects as more of a low-average, 30-homer slugger. Murakami’s defense is considered below average at both corner positions, but his age helps make him an attractive free agent.
We mentioned Colt Emerson as a replacement for Eugenio Suarez at third base for the Mariners, but a year in Triple-A wouldn’t hurt, and Emerson could then take over at shortstop in 2027. That leaves Murakami as a fit for third base, or a backup option to Josh Naylor at first base. The Mariners have certainly shown they’re OK with strikeouts if it comes with power.
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Another possible fit: Dodgers
The Dodgers? Hey, you have to consider the Dodgers a possibility for any Japanese player. They obviously have Freddie Freeman locked into first base and have a $10 million option on Max Muncy, but note that Murakami did play a few games in the outfield in 2025. Given their hole in left field, maybe they fake left-field defense with Murakami for a year and then have him replace Muncy at third base in 2027. In the bigger picture, the Dodgers had the oldest group of position players in 2025. Only Andy Pages was younger than 30 among the top 11 regulars. They need to get younger, and Murakami is younger — and less expensive to sign — than Kyle Tucker.
Sports
Early MLB offseason rumors and buzz: Which stars will get traded? Which teams will rule the winter?
Published
5 hours agoon
November 6, 2025By
admin

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Multiple Contributors
Nov 5, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
The MLB hot stove season is here!
As players become free to sign with any team they choose (free agency officially begins Thursday at 5 p.m. ET), we asked our MLB reporters to open their notebooks with all of the intel they collected from execs, agents and other baseball insiders during the 2025 World Series.
What is the early word on top free agents Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber? Will the Detroit Tigers consider moving Tarik Skubal? How will the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays approach the offseason after meeting in the World Series? Which other teams are generating the most buzz across the industry? And who could be traded this winter?
Here is what we’re hearing as the hot stove ignites.
What is the early word on top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber?
Jeff Passan: Tucker falls in that interesting bucket where he will rightly demand a contract in excess of $300 million, but the number of teams willing to pay that will limit his options. The Dodgers and Giants make sense, as do the Phillies. Schwarber, on the other hand, will have a bountiful market.
Because he’ll be 33 on Opening Day, Schwarber is looking at a maximum five-year deal. Even at a high average annual value, the lack of years keeps mid-market teams in the mix. Ultimately, though, the bidding is likely to come down to bigger-market teams, and he could wind up with a bigger per-year number than Tucker on account of that.
Jesse Rogers: The Cubs are likely going to let Tucker walk while the Phillies haven’t closed the door on a reunion with Schwarber. Chicago has more budget constraints than Philadelphia, meaning the Cubs probably don’t want to tie up $35-40 million on one player.
Somebody will be willing though, especially if Tucker can slide into a ready-made lineup — like the Dodgers’. There was some fun chatter about him joining his hometown Rays under new ownership, but a megadeal from Tampa isn’t likely. Industry insiders begin analysis of Tucker with the phrase, “when he’s healthy.” He’s as good as it gets at the plate when he is, but a couple of injuries over the past two seasons have thrown a wrench into his overall production.
Schwarber is one of those rare players — think Marcus Semien — who will make more money in his mid-30s than he did previously. He should sign for much more than $79 million, which is what he just made in his previous deal with Philadelphia. The Phillies need him more than he needs them, according to insiders. How do you replace 187 home runs over the past four years? You don’t. He could also balance out the Yankees’ lineup if Cody Bellinger walks. Can you imagine his home run totals with the short porch at Yankee Stadium?
Both players have the same agent — Casey Close of Excel — but they bring different skill sets to the table, meaning the crossover between interested teams may not materialize.
What do those in the industry think the Detroit Tigers will do with Tarik Skubal this winter?
Buster Olney: Other teams believe the Tigers will seriously consider moving him if they can glean what they want in a trade — and there is every reason to expect a significant bidding war for Skubal, who will be eligible for free agency after next season.
The Mariners are expected to be among the teams that go after Skubal, to bring him back to the city where he attended college. The Mets, of course, have an acute need for an ace to lead their rotation — a need borne out through their late-season collapse — and they have the sort of major-league-ready young talent that the Tigers will want, like Jonah Tong. The Red Sox are well-positioned to make a run at Skubal, if they want.
The only sure thing in this situation, it seems, is that Skubal will not sign a long-term deal with Detroit before he reaches free agency, and that will frame the Tigers’ decision-making.
Rogers: There are mixed feelings on Skubal. Even if he’s headed for free agency in a year, some believe the Tigers can still squeeze another playoff season out of him and then reassess under perhaps a new economic climate in baseball. Others believe Tigers president Scott Harris is too smart to let him walk for nothing more than draft pick compensation (under the current system), with the hope that whomever he might get in return helps the Tigers in 2026 and not just in the long term.
Some insiders see his situation as a test for owner Chris Ilitch. Will he open his wallet like his dad, Mike, used to or will he go the more conservative approach?
What should we expect from the Dodgers and Blue Jays this winter after reaching the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: The Blue Jays outperformed expectations all season as underdogs and nearly pulled off the upset in the World Series, but this isn’t some small-market outfit. Backed by Rogers Communications and an entire country, the Blue Jays spend money (see: Vladimir Guerrero’s $500 million contract) and have targeted the sport’s biggest free agents in recent years (see: Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto).
Starting pitching and the bullpen figure to reside near the top of their list of priorities this winter, but the first matter to address is Bo Bichette‘s future. Bichette is a homegrown star coming off a timely bounce-back regular season before battling through a knee sprain to go 8-for-23 with a .923 OPS in the World Series. His defensive metrics plunged at shortstop this season, perhaps enough for teams to consider him for second or third base.
Toronto already has about $850 million in future commitments. Adding a nine-figure deal for Bichette would spike their projected 2026 payroll close to $200 million with holes to fill in their pitching staff. But the Blue Jays, after again dabbling in luxury tax territory in 2025, have the money.
Alden Gonzalez: The Dodgers have one massive need heading into the offseason — they need a closer. More broadly, they need trusted arms late in games, particularly right-handed ones. Brusdar Graterol (coming off shoulder surgery), Blake Treinen (37 and coming off a rough year), Edgardo Henriquez and Will Klein (hard throwers with command issues) are the incumbents there, and they all have questions. So look for the Dodgers to be really aggressive in that space, either through free agency or via trade, or both.
But what will attract the most attention in the early part of this offseason will be the Dodgers’ ties to Skubal and Tucker. They’ll be engaged on both of those players, simply because they can, but it will probably be on the periphery.
After a disappointing end to the season for both New York teams, how active do those in the industry expect the Yankees and Mets to be this winter?
Castillo: The consensus seems to be that the Mets will be more active after their disappointing season. The Mets need a front-line starting pitcher. Skubal rumors erupted as soon as the Tigers were eliminated from the postseason, but acquiring the Cy Young Award winner will require president of baseball operations David Stearns to venture beyond his comfort zone. Then there’s the case of first baseman Pete Alonso, a free agent for the second straight offseason. Alonso wants a lucrative long-term deal coming off a rebound campaign. The Mets probably aren’t going to give him one, which would leave first base to fill.
The Yankees have moves to make, too. Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are all free agents. Re-signing Bellinger, who fit in so seamlessly in his one season in the Bronx, is a priority, but he’s going to have a few deep-pocketed suitors. The Yankees could also use some rotation depth with Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt all out for at least the beginning of next season.
But between the two teams, the Mets — with owner Steve Cohen still hunting for a championship after five seasons in control — are more likely to execute big splashes this winter.
Olney: There is insight to be gleaned from the trade deadline activity of the New York teams, when they both were aggressive in trying to better position themselves for championship runs — the Yankees loading up on relievers and adding third baseman Ryan McMahon, and the Mets also working to bolster their bullpen.
The working goal for both organizations is plainly apparent: Anything short of a shot at a World Series title will be regarded as failure. So, yes, the Yankees will try to reconstruct a better, deeper bullpen; replace Bellinger, if he re-signs elsewhere, with an outfielder or two who can help the lineup around Aaron Judge and Ben Rice; and build more options at shortstop beyond Anthony Volpe, who is expected to miss the start of the 2026 season.
For the Mets, that could be targeting Skubal, or a free agent signing, and resolving the future of Alonso once and for all.
What other team are you hearing could dominate the headlines this winter?
Gonzalez: A lot of eyes this offseason will be on the Mariners, coming off their deepest postseason run in franchise history. Seattle came painstakingly close to reaching its first World Series but remains the only franchise that hasn’t.
Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, the two midseason acquisitions brought in to bolster the lineup, are now free agents, which means the Mariners once again have a massive need for offense to support their dynamic pitching staff.
Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told local reporters recently that payroll is expected to be roughly where it stood at season’s end, at about $165 million. When accounting for the contracts that have since expired, that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million to spend — all of which can go to bats. The Mariners are widely expected to be aggressive in free agency, but they also have the prospect capital to pull off massive trades. And if there’s anybody who can be counted on to be aggressive when the moment demands it, it’s Dipoto.
Rogers: The Phillies. As they continue to chase a ring, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is always willing to do more than just tinker with his roster. Obviously, Schwarber’s situation will help determine their path this offseason but fortifying the bullpen as well as the outfield should be high on their to-do list. And he won’t stop there. With Zack Wheeler on the mend and Ranger Suarez a free agent, the Phillies could need more in their rotation.
Dombrowski won’t overreact to another postseason loss — his team did win the NL East — but he also won’t leave things to chance. He’ll try to find as much redundancy to his roster as he can, like the Dodgers have been able to do. That takes money.
Who are the biggest names you are hearing could be traded this winter?
Olney: Because of the looming labor situation, some younger stars who are under team control in 2027 before reaching free agency could be shoved into the trade market by circumstances this winter.
The best example: Joe Ryan, who is eligible for free agency after the ’27 season. Typically, the Twins could wait until next summer’s trade deadline to consider taking offers for Ryan. However, with many executives believing that at least some of the ’27 season is in jeopardy because of the labor strife, placing an appropriate trade valuation on Ryan will be much, much more complicated next July; teams might not be willing to part with significant return if they believe the ’27 season will be truncated or lost. So if teams want to get proper return on players like Ryan, they could be better served to take offers this winter, rather than waiting until next summer.
Other players who could fit this timeline: MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, the Guardians’ Steven Kwan, the Cardinals’ Lars Nootbaar and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman. If those players aren’t going to be locked down with multiyear deals, the best time to get value in a deal for them could be this winter.
Passan: Everyone wants Skubal, the soon-to-be two-time American League Cy Young winner, but as of now, the industry expects Detroit to hold onto him, even with his free agency approaching after the 2026 season.
Another arm with questions as to whether he’ll go: Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta, who at $8 million is cheap and will hit free agency next winter. Most of the bigger names that will draw interest are pitchers: Minnesota right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore and St. Louis right-hander Sonny Gray.
Boston could be active in moving one of its outfielders, either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. One player widely expected to be moved: St. Louis third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is willing to waive his no-trade clause.
Sports
Source: Braves keep Sale in fold with $18M option
Published
5 hours agoon
November 6, 2025By
admin
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ESPN News Services
Nov 5, 2025, 10:59 AM ET
The Atlanta Braves have exercised their club option on left-hander Chris Sale, who will make $18 million in 2026, a source confirmed to ESPN.
The 2024 National League Cy Young Award winner went 7-5 with a 2.58 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 125⅔ innings for the Braves this past season. The nine-time All-Star suffered a rib cage fracture in June when he dove to field a grounder and missed 10 weeks after being placed on the 60-day injured list.
In the six starts after his return, Sale didn’t miss a beat, posting a 2.72 ERA and striking out 52 batters in just 36⅓ innings.
His injury was one in a series of injuries for the Braves’ starting rotation last season, as all of their Opening Day starters were on the IL as Atlanta missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
Sale, 36, won the pitching Triple Crown in his first season in Atlanta in 2024, finishing with an NL high in wins (18) and strikeouts (225) and a league-low ERA of 2.38.
Atlanta, with new manager Walt Weiss, returns a strong core in 2026, led by former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr, first baseman Matt Olson, third baseman Austin Riley, future star catcher Drake Baldwin, and a rotation featuring Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach.
After a fourth-place finish, Atlanta still could be among the favorites in the NL East
Though Atlanta is flush with starting-pitching options — young right-handers Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, along with right-handers Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder and left-hander Joey Wentz are candidates — its bullpen is a work in progress, with closer Raisel Iglesias headed to free agency this winter.
The New York Post was first to report the Braves picking up Sale’s option.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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